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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

State Spotlight on Resilience: The Michigan Public Service Commission and Data Informed Accountability

Resilience activities are an emerging area within regulatory utility policy. As resilience frameworks develop, many Public Utility Commissions (PUCs) are looking to initiate resilience activities and have identified enhancing grid reliability as a practical starting point. Reliability describes the grid’s ability to deliver electricity steadily and without interruptions under normal or “blue sky” conditions. Reliability is measured using industry standard metrics such as outage frequency (SAIFI) and outage duration (SAIDI). Resilience is broader, reflecting the grid’s ability to both withstand and recover from disruptions, particularly those caused by extreme events such as severe storms. A reliable grid minimizes routine disruptions; a resilient grid ensures the system can recover quickly when disruptions occur, preventing them from escalating into widespread or prolonged crises.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Collapse of the effective response time near the spin glass transition temperature

Kenning et al. discovered the collapse of the effective response time, 𝑡$^{eff}_{𝐻}$⁡(𝑡 w ;𝑇), independent of aging time, 𝑡 w , as one approached the spin glass transition temperature 𝑇 g from below. Nordblad and Lundgren observed the same effect by reducing the temperature from 𝑇 g ⁡(𝐻). We analyze the behavior of ln⁡ 𝑡$^{eff}_{𝐻}$⁡(𝑡 w ;𝑇) in the temperature range near and below 𝑇 g using a scaling law that takes into account both the magnetic field 𝐻 and the time-dependent spin-glass coherence length 𝜉⁡(𝑡,𝑡 w ;𝑇). As a result, an overdetermined predictive fit to the experimental data accounts for a quasioscillatory structure of ln ⁡𝑡$^{eff}_{𝐻}$⁡ (𝑡 w ;𝑇) as a function of magnetic field 𝐻 2 for reduced temperatures as large as 𝑇/𝑇 g = 0.98.

Frustrated magnetism↗
DOE OSTI2025

An automated integrated web-based smart tool for open stope design

The Stability Graph is a widely used tool for the design of open stopes in underground mining. Many users of the Stability Graph still apply this design method manually. Although the manual approach has benefits, using multiple graphs and stability number computation charts for each stope surface is time-consuming, even for the experienced mining engineer. Current practice in the use of the method also limits data sharing. This paper presents a StopeSoft web-based tool for open stope stability prediction that is developed on the basis of the Stability Graph method and is available at openstope.com. StopeSoft incorporates flexibility in terms of Stability Graph options and incorporates additional critical factors often overlooked. As a web-based tool, StopeSoft encourages and makes data sharing possible globally, focused on expanding the database and improving the current limitations of the Stability Graph to provide practical, reliable solutions for mining engineers, consultants, and academics. The StopeSoft automated process facilitates the process of open stope stability prediction, saving time and minimizing potential human errors. Statistical treatment of the data accounts for the variability of input parameters to emphasize the probabilistic nature of the Stability Graph method. The probabilistic interpretation of the stability states of stope surfaces eliminates the false feeling of absolute stope performance based on its location on the Stability Graph , as implied by the deterministic approach.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

How does drought affect residential water demand and price elasticity?

Urban water scarcity is an important social and economic concern, particularly as the intensity, duration, and frequency of droughts is increasing in many regions. We consider whether drought induces changes to water demand and the price elasticity of demand for water that may last beyond a drought’s official end date. If drought shocks prompt long-term changes in water demand behavior, and these changes occur at broad geographic scale, they could have important implications for modeling adaptive responses to water scarcity. We assemble a novel dataset on residential water demand and pricing in the western United States to test empirically for effects of drought on water demand and price elasticity. We perform our analysis with aggregate quantity, price, and drought data, accounting for endogenous prices under increasing-block water tariffs and using both average and marginal water fees in estimating water demand functions. Results are consistent with the hypothesis that households may become less price-sensitive after exposure to drought. However, we find no systematic evidence of long-run, drought-related reductions in water demand, itself.

demand hardening↗
DOE OSTI2026

Core Model Proposal #410: Updates to Socioeconomic and Macroeconomic Data, Processing Structure, and Visualization

This Core Model Proposal (CMP) comprehensively restructures and updates the macroeconomic and socioeconomic modules in gcamdata. It includes visualizations of key data inputs, accounting identities, and data flows in the context of GCAM-Macro-KLEM. Major improvements include: (1) updating the Penn World Table (PWT) to version 10 and incorporating a new source, the Global Macro Database (GMD); (2) updating the SSP socioeconomics database from version 3.0.1 to 3.2; (3) introducing SSP-specific differentiation of employment and labor force data; (4) improving data integration between national accounts (from PWT, GMD, and GTAP) and GDP/population data from external sources; and (5) general data cleaning and structural refinements. We document the data sources and key assumptions used throughout the processing. These updates establish the foundation for the forthcoming KLEAM version of GCAM-macro.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for Greenhouse Gas Accounting Procedures in Low Carbon Fuel Policies Overlook the Spatial Variability of Miscanthus-Derived Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Low carbon fuel policies such as the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), Canada Clean Fuel Regulations (CFR), and California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) as well as the 45Z tax credit are intended to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from transportation. Cellulosic feedstocks, optimized biorefineries, and favorable farming locations can significantly reduce biofuel carbon intensity (CI). Despite advances in field-to-fuel GHG monitoring and flexibility in resource allocation within biorefineries (e.g., governing net electricity production), rigid CI accounting procedures in current policies may limit CI responsiveness across candidate sites and processing facilities. This work examines a hypothetical biomass-to-sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) pathway using miscanthus and alcohol-to-jet (i) to demonstrate how GHG accounting requirements drive estimates of biofuel CIs and (ii) to explore potential CI and financial implications of scenario-specific life cycle assessment (LCA). Results demonstrate that GHG accounting using the CFR/LCFS can reasonably account for distinct levels of net electricity production by a biorefinery, but only the CFR yields similar CI sensitivity to spatially explicit factors (feedstock CI, grid electricity CI) as scenario-specific LCA: most GHG accounting frameworks do not capture CI variation across candidate sites in the United States. Ultimately, this work demonstrates the importance of LCA methodological specifications in low carbon fuel policies and tax credits.

Miscanthus↗
DOE OSTI2025

Graph-Based Prediction of Spatio-Temporal Vaccine Hesitancy From Insurance Claims Data

Growing vaccine hesitancy is contributing to the decline in immunization rates for highly contagious, vaccine-preventable childhood diseases. Therefore, there has been a significant interest in understanding how hesitancy is spreading at higher spatio-temporal resolutions, enabling more targeted interventions. Motivated by this, we study the problem of prediction of vaccine hesitancy at the ZIP Code level, referred to as the VaxHesitancy problem. A significant challenge for this problem is the lack of high-resolution data that indicates hesitancy. Here, we develop a hybrid VaxHesSTL framework that combines a Graph Neural Network (GNN) and a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to address the VaxHesitancy problem. The GNN uses a ZIP Code-level network to capture spatial signals from neighboring areas, while the RNN models the temporal dynamics present in the data. We train and evaluate VaxHesSTL using a large dataset, namely the All-Payer Claims Databases (APCD), for Virginia, consisting of insurance claims from over five million individuals for six years. We find that an aggregated contact network or graph, developed from a detailed activity-based population network, plays an important role in the performance of VaxHesSTL, compared to graph models based solely on spatial proximity. Experiments demonstrate that VaxHesSTL outperforms a range of state-of-the-art baselines, which rely solely on historical time series data without accounting for spatial relationships. Since hesitancy data at higher spatial resolution is often unavailable or hard to get, we incorporate an active learning approach with our VaxHesSTL framework to optimize the training set without compromising the prediction performance. We find that hesitancy data for only 18% of ZIP Codes selected by active learning allows us to forecast hesitancy for all the ZIP Codes in the Virginia.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Criticality Safety S/U based USL Calculation for UCl3-NaCl Fuel Salt Operations

Recent experimental data has shown inconsistencies with the 35Cl(n,p) cross-section. The cross-section uncertainty data does not account for the recent data. The 1s relative uncertainty is assumed to be 100% for the 35Cl(n,p) cross section over all energies above 0.017 MeV TerraPower and LANL have recently done cross-section measurements and developed new cross-sections for 35Cl.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Toward Energy-Efficient HPC: Insights from Power Profiling a Cloud-Resolving Earth System Model

Power is a fundamental constraint as supercomputing advances to exascale. Efficient operation within strict power budgets requires application-aware power management based on a detailed understanding of application-level power behavior. This work analyzes the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) atmosphere component, SCREAM, on Perlmutter (NERSC) and Frontier (OLCF). We characterize power variation across inputs, concurrency levels, and power caps, evaluate the energy impact of code optimizations, and attribute energy within the code using a newly developed GPU energy model. Results show that SCREAM’s peak power remains stable during its core execution phase and decreases gradually as concurrency increases. Power capping experiments reveal a performance–energy "sweet spot". On Perlmutter, limiting GPU power to 50% of thermal design power (TDP) achieves up to 15% energy savings with a 7% performance penalty. On Frontier, a 40% TDP cap yields up to 10% energy savings with less than 10% performance loss. Code optimizations reduce SCREAM energy by shortening run time without increasing power. Modeling reveals a critical insight: data movement accounts for approximately 70% of SCREAM’s GPU energy. This fundamentally shifts the optimization focus from FLOPS to data transfer reduction for this class of applications, offering the most impactful strategy for improving energy efficiency. This work establishes a foundation for practical, application-aware power management at exascale.

Zhao, Zhengji [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2025

Misclassification in Workers’ Telecommuting Frequency Choices Using a Generalized Extreme Value Model

Telecommuting frequency is a response variable collected in travel surveys and is, therefore, prone to errors leading to mismeasurements or misclassification. Misclassification of explanatory variables is a common risk when using statistical modeling techniques. We define “misclassification” as a response reported or recorded in the wrong category; for example, a variable is recorded as a 1 when it should be 0. Here, in this context, this study aims to develop a statistical model to analyze telecommuting data which accounts for potential misclassification errors by building on existing literature in econometrics. The empirical analysis was undertaken using the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and the general extreme value (GEV) models available in the literature. Specifically, the frequency of telecommuting days was analyzed using the negative binomial (NB) model recast as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. By nature—and consistent with other studies—NHTS data are prone to errors that can be classified as intentional or unintentional misinformation provided by the person being interviewed. Ignoring these errors while modeling telecommuting frequencies using standard discrete count models can result in biased parameter estimates. The misclassification parameter was calculated for both over-reporting and under-reporting scenarios. The misclassification errors can be as high as 14% over-reported and 10% under-reported, particularly for the neighboring values. Statistical fit comparison between the models shows that models that ignore misclassification have worse data fit and biased parameter estimates with significant policy implications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatiotemporal Downscaling Model for Solar Irradiance Forecast Using Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest and Gaussian Process

Accurate solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity estimation requires high-resolution, site-specific solar irradiance data to account for localized variability. However, global datasets, such as the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), provide regional averages that fail to capture the fine-scale fluctuations critical for large-scale grid integration. This limitation is particularly relevant in the context of increasing distributed energy resources (DERs) penetration, such as rooftop PV. Additionally, it is critical to the implementation of the U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) Order 2222, which facilitates DER participation in U.S. bulk power markets. To address this challenge, this study evaluates Nearest-Neighbor Random Forest (NNRF) and Nearest-Neighbor Gaussian Process (NNGP) models for spatiotemporal downscaling of global solar irradiance data. By leveraging historical irradiance and meteorological data, these models incorporate spatial, temporal, and feature-based correlations to enhance local irradiance predictions. The NNRF model, a machine-learning approach, prioritizes computational efficiency and predictive accuracy, while the NNGP model offers a level of interpretability and prediction uncertainty by numerically quantifying correlations and dependencies in the data. Model validation was conducted using day-ahead predictions. The results showed that the average Goodness of Fit (GoF) of the NNRF model of 90.61% across all eight sites outperformed the GoF of the NNGP of 85.88%. Additionally, the computational speed of NNRF was 2.5 times faster than the NNGP. Finally, the NNGP displayed polynomial scaling while the NNRF scaled linearly with increasing number of nearest neighbors. Additional validation of the model on five sites in Puerto Rico further confirmed the superiority of the NNRF model over the NNGP model. These findings highlight the robustness and computational efficiency of NNRF for large-scale solar irradiance downscaling, making it a strong candidate for improving PV capacity estimation and real-time electricity market integration for DERs.

Asiedu, Shadrack (ORCID:0009000646004826)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Analysis of X-ray Fluorescence Measurements of the Interfacial Density of Eu Ions at Liquid–Liquid Interfaces for Solvent Back-Extraction

X-ray fluorescence near total reflection (XFNTR) is the primary technique used to measure the element-specific interfacial density of ions at liquid−liquid interfaces. Fluorescence from ions in the bulk liquids can complicate the determination of the interfacial density; consequently, measurements have been previously limited to samples without ions in the upper phase and with concentrations on the order of 10 μM or less in the lower phase. We modify the analysis of XFNTR data to account for ions in both bulk phases, then demonstrate its use in the context of rare-earth separations processes. In a model of ion stripping (i.e., back-extraction), dodecane solutions of di(2-ethylhexyl)- phosphoric acid (HDEHP) loaded with Eu(III) at the 1 mM level are placed in contact with either pure water or aqueous solutions of nitric or citric acid at pH 3. XFNTR measurements of equilibrated, quiescent samples reveal that citric acid solutions produce a disproportionately large depletion of ions from the interface compared to that from the bulk organic solution, whereas stripping by pure water or nitric acid solutions is negligible. As a result, this advance in the methodology of XFNTR may have broad applicability to the investigation of metal ions in chemical and biological processes at liquid−liquid interfaces.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Western Interconnection Baseline Study

The purpose of the baseline study is to evaluate the degree to which current industry planning processes meet the national 2035 decarbonization goals for the Western Interconnection. This analysis serves as a comparative baseline for the scenario analysis conducted in the NTP Study using a Western Interconnection dataset that is readily available to industry. This baseline analysis differs from the production cost modeling analysis and power flow analysis in the main NTP Study report (forthcoming). In particular, the analysis presented in this report reflects a business-as-usual future with an optimistic build out of specific planned transmission projects and foreseeable generation. In contrast, the NTP Study models a future generation and transmission expansion based on optimization from a capacity expansion model. The analysis presented herein also reflects a 2030 timeframe, whereas the main NTP Study production cost modeling analysis and power flow analysis reflect a 2035 time frame. This baseline analysis utilizes industry’s most reliable data to account for future transmission projects across various stages of development, with a particular focus on those in the permitting stage. Additionally, it incorporates projections for changes in generation capacity (both additions and retirements). This baseline analysis outlines a probable trajectory, given current process and practice, for the future of the bulk power system with a horizon extending to 2030.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

The ARM Precipitation Best Estimate (PrecipBE) Value-Added Product Report

The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility’s Precipitation Best-Estimate (PrecipBE) Value-Added Product integrates multiple precipitation datastreams, accounting for data quality and instrument limitations, to deliver comprehensive per-precipitation event properties alongside ancillary ARM data set data. PrecipBE bundles all valid surface rainfall samples into artificial intelligence (AI)-ready tabular and time-series formats, reporting bundle means and uncertainty ranges. This per-event structure provides an insightful and easy-to-use resource for researchers analyzing precipitation characteristics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Contextualizing Non-Powered Dam Site Selection for Archimedes Screw Turbines: A Methodology for Responsible Archimedes Screw Turbine Conversion at Existing Dams

Non-powered dams represent 97% of dams in the United States and their energy generation potential has not been fully realized. The use of an Archimedes screw turbine to generate power at non-powered dams offers a dual benefit; producing electricity, and acting as downstream fish passage, helping to reconnect previously separated ecosystems. In this study, we assess the technical, environmental, social, and economic feasibility of generating power at non-powered U.S. dam sites using Archimedes screw turbines by integrating mechanical constraints, social impact metrics, proximity to infrastructure, and environmental sensitivity data. Results account for future precipitation predictions and show, between 2024 and 2050, the number of sites where Archimedes screw turbines are viable decreases by one site, but overall generation capacity increases due to increased flow rates across persisting locations. Our analysis identified 82 non-powered dam sites with a mean generation capacity of 49 kW that meet the mechanical requirements for Archimedes screw turbine technology in 2024. Our analysis presents a framework for considering social, environmental, and economic impacts of specific turbine technologies to convert non-powered dams to generate power.

Archimedes screw turbine↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Role of Magnetic Reconnection in Energizing Protons and Heavier Ions at the Heliospheric Current Sheet

During near-Sun crossings of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS), Parker Solar Probe (PSP) observed populations of high-energy protons and heavier ions, indicating possible energization by magnetic reconnection up to 10 s–100 s keV nucleon −1 . Here we study ion acceleration by magnetic reconnection at the HCS. To estimate ion energization, we solve the Parker transport equation coupled to a large-scale 2D MHD reconnection simulation. We find that multiple ion species develop power-law distributions with both spectral index and high-energy cutoff E max consistent with in situ data. By accounting for the injection physics determined by kinetic simulations, we confirm that the charge-to-mass ratio scales as E max ∝ (Q/M) α with α ∼ 0.8–1.1, approximately consistent with PSP measurements in the broader range α ∼ 0.6–1.7. In the limit where ions are injected at the same energy per nucleon, α can be as low as ∼0.3. These findings further support the role of magnetic reconnection in producing high-energy heavy ions at the HCS.

Murtas, Giulia [West Virginia Univ., Morgantown, W↗
DOE OSTI2026

HPC ODA Commons [SWR-26-003]

HPC ODA Commons is a community-driven platform for standardizing HPC operational data analytics. HPC sites generate enormous volumes of operational data - scheduler logs, accounting records, monitoring streams - but turning that data into actionable insight is needlessly hard. Each site builds bespoke parsers, schemas, and evaluation pipelines. Results can't be compared across institutions. Promising analytics ideas stay siloed because there's no shared language for describing the data, the experiments, or the outcomes. HPC ODA Commons fixes this by establishing community-governed contracts - versioned schemas, canonical artifacts, and benchmark recipes - that make ODA workflows discoverable, reproducible, and comparable. It pairs these standards with a practical, CLI-first toolkit that lets operators and researchers go from raw logs to standardized results without sending data off-cluster.

Menear, Kevin [National Laboratory of the Rockies ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data as a Key Resource in Catalysis: A Community Account

The deployment of artificial intelligence (AI) is transforming the scientific fields central to interdisciplinary catalysis research. By enabling more effective use of data, AI (including simpler machine learning and data science tools) holds great promise for accelerating discoveries. However, progress has so far been modest, largely due to the lack of standardized, machine-readable, and openly shared catalysis data. This perspective, accounting for community insights emerging at conferences, analyses the underlying reasons for these challenges and proposes solutions to a future whereFAIR data management becomes an integral part of research in catalysis. In the short-term, we deem that mandatory FAIR data depositing prior to scientific publications along with consensualized top-down guidelines on data sharing powered by ease-to-use tools can make the necessary step change happen to catalyse data as key resource in our community.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗