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At least 19 records

Technology Assessment of High Capacity Data Storage Systems: Can We Avoid a Data Survivability Crisis?

This technology assessment of long-term high capacity data storage systems identifies an emerging crisis of severe proportions related to preserving important historical data in science, healthcare, manufacturing, finance and other fields. For the last 50 years, the information revolution, which has engulfed all major institutions of modem society, centered itself on data-their collection, storage, retrieval, transmission, analysis and presentation. The transformation of long term historical data records into information concepts, according to Drucker, is the next stage in this revolution towards building the new information based scientific and business foundations. For this to occur, data survivability, reliability and evolvability of long term storage media and systems pose formidable technological challenges. Unlike the Y2K problem, where the clock is ticking and a crisis is set to go off at a specific time, large capacity data storage repositories face a crisis similar to the social security system in that the seriousness of the problem emerges after a decade or two. The essence of the storage crisis is as follows: since it could take a decade to migrate a peta-byte of data to a new media for preservation, and the life expectancy of the storage media itself is only a decade, then it may not be possible to complete the transfer before an irrecoverable data loss occurs. Over the last two decades, a number of anecdotal crises have occurred where vital scientific and business data were lost or would have been lost if not for major expenditures of resources and funds to save this data, much like what is happening today to solve the Y2K problem. A pr-ime example was the joint NASA/NSF/NOAA effort to rescue eight years worth of TOVS/AVHRR data from an obsolete system, which otherwise would have not resulted in the valuable 20-year long satellite record of global warming. Current storage systems solutions to long-term data survivability rest on scalable architectures having parallel paths for data migration.

Halem, M.

Technology Assessment of High Capacity Data Storage Systems: Can We Avoid a Data Survivability Crisis?

In a recent address at the California Science Center in Los Angeles, Vice President Al Gore articulated a Digital Earth Vision. That vision spoke to developing a multi-resolution, three-dimensional visual representation of the planet into which we can roam and zoom into vast quantities of embedded geo-referenced data. The vision was not limited to moving through space, but also allowing travel over a time-line, which can be set for days, years, centuries, or even geological epochs. A working group of Federal Agencies, developing a coordinated program to implement the Vice President's vision, developed the definition of the Digital Earth as a visual representation of our planet that enables a person to explore and interact with the vast amounts of natural and cultural geo-referenced information gathered about the Earth. One of the challenges identified by the agencies was whether the technology existed that would be available to permanently store and deliver all the digital data that enterprises might want to save for decades and centuries. Satellite digital data is growing by Moore's Law as is the growth of computer generated data. Similarly, the density of digital storage media in our information-intensive society is also increasing by a factor of four every three years. The technological bottleneck is that the bandwidth for transferring data is only growing at a factor of four every nine years. This implies that the migration of data to viable long-term storage is growing more slowly. The implication is that older data stored on increasingly obsolete media are at considerable risk if they cannot be continuously migrated to media with longer life times. Another problem occurs when the software and hardware systems for which the media were designed are no longer serviced by their manufacturers. Many instances exist where support for these systems are phased out after mergers or even in going out of business. In addition, survivability of older media can suffer from physical breakdown of components (e.g. tapes simply lose their magnetic properties after a long time in storage). As a result, a potential data survivability crisis is emerging. The scale of the crisis is comparable to that facing the Social Security System. Sometime in one or two decades, the exponential growth of data will become so great that many enterprises will not be able to migrate through their data to more permanent media during the lifetime of the media on which it resides. This will result in significant losses of data and their resultant impacts. To avoid this crisis, we need to plan and devote greater financial and intellectual resources are needed for the development and refinement of new storage media and migration technologies in order to preserve all data any organization determines worth saving permanently. This talk will explore technological solutions and suggested recommendations to address this technological data crisis.

Halem, Milton

The Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary biotic crisis in the Basque country

The Zumaya section has been selected as a classic locality for the study of the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary due to its richness in microfaune, macrofaune, and nannoflora. The sections present similar good conditions for the study of the K-T boundary. The sedimentary rocks of the Uppermost Maastrichtian from the Basque Country are purple or pink marls and marls-tones. Above it is found a clayed bed, 40 to 29 cm thick, grey or dark grey in its basal part, of Lowermost Danian age. Above there is alternation of micritic grey-pink limestones and thin clay beds of Dano-Montian age. The average sedimentation is 7 to 8 times higher during the Upper Maastrichtian than in the Dano-Montian. The macrofauna underwent a decrease since the Campanian and was not found in the last 11 m of the Zumaya section; it was associated with changes in paleoceanographic conditions and primary productivity of the oceans. The microfossil assemblages in the K-T transition allows the recognition of several phases of a complex crisis between two well established planktonic ecosystems. In the Mayaroensis Zone there is a stable ecosystem with 45 to 47 planktonic foraminifera species. The disappearance of A. mayaroensis starts a degradation of the ecosystem. The number of planktonic foraminiera species decreases between 20 and 45 percent. The next phase of the crisis was the result of main extinction events in the planktonic calcareous ecosystem. There are several cretaceous planktonic foraminifera species, probably reworked, whose numbers decrease upward. The next and last phase of the biotic crisis shows a diversification of the ecosystem; the number of planktonic foraminifera is 2 to 3 times higher than before and it is noted the first appearance of Tertiary nannoflora species, while Cretaceous species decrease and persisting species are still the main ones.

Lamolda, M. A.

Addressing the Energy Crisis At Uranus via Magnetic Reconnection

The long-standing 'energy crisis' at Uranus refers to the seemingly anomalous heating of the planet's thermosphere (requires ~200GW) compared to the available input energy from the Sun (~20GW). At Uranus this crisis is further exacerbated by a decades-long thermospheric cooling of H3+ observed from 1980 to present. Input energy from the magnetosphere has been invoked as a possible solution to the energy crisis, though the total available energy and how it may vary with time have not been quantified. We apply a recent scaling of the energy conversion rate of magnetic reconnection developed from recent data from NASA's Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission to the Uranus system. We find that the energy input is most modulated by solar activity, producing >100GW in solar max and approximately half that during solar minimum. During solar minimum, the remaining energy input required to the Uranus system may be dominated by the Kelvin-Helmholtz instability that is more active for time periods with weaker interplanetary magnetic fields. The declining intensity of solar maxima over the past several decades could account for the observed thermospheric cooling and the ascending phase of the current solar cycle should lead to increases in observed thermospheric H3+ temperatures. Neither process of energy input appears to be significantly impacted by Uranus season or magnetospheric

Daniel Gershman

Heracles: Predictive Tools for Opioid Crisis Intervention - m/q Initiative Project Report

The opioid crisis in the United States is being fueled primarily by fentanyl and its molecular analogs, which can be anywhere from 50 to 1,000 times more potent than morphine. Fentanyl itself is straightforward to synthesize; furthermore, the structure is such that fentanyl’s flexible, rotatable side chains are easy to modify to create new analogs. Reference-free computational techniques to predict and identify new fentanyls have the potential to provide a desperately needed preemptive advantage to regulatory stakeholders and toxicologists. The computational pipeline Heracles was developed with this preemptive advantage in mind. Heracles has two primary components: 1) the creation of an in silico library of putative fentanyl analogs, and 2) a downselection pipeline to prioritize generated fentanyl analogs predicted to be potent and easy to synthesize. Experimental observables were also predicted for prioritized analogs, with validation of the observables begun. Heracles has demonstrated potential to aid in the advancement of reference-free paradigms while providing new tools to first responders and other stakeholders attempting to mitigate the opioid crisis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

SOCAP: Lessons learned in applying SIPE-2 to the military operations crisis action planning domain

This report describes work funded under the DARPA Planning and Scheduling Initiative that led to the development of SOCAP (System for Operations Crisis Action Planning). In particular, it describes lessons learned in applying SIPE-2, the underlying AI planning technology within SOCAP, to the domain of military operations deliberate and crisis action planning. SOCAP was demonstrated at the U.S. Central Command and at the Pentagon in early 1992. A more detailed report about the lessons learned is currently being prepared. This report was presented during one of the panel discussions on 'The Relevance of Scheduling to AI Planning Systems.'

Desimone, Roberto

Crisis action planning and replanning using SIPE-2

Rome Laboratory and DARPA are jointly sponsoring an initiative to develop the next generation of AI planning and scheduling technology focused on military operations planning, especially for crisis situations. SRI International has demonstrated their knowledge-based planning technology in this domain with a system called SOCAP, System for Operations Crisis Action Planning. SOCAP's underlying power comes from SIPE-2, a hierarchical, domain-independent, nonlinear AI planner also developed at SRI. This paper discusses the features of SIPE-2 that made it an ideal choice for military operations planning and which contributed greatly to SOCAP's success.

Skidmore, Jennifer D.

A Developing Food Crisis and Potential Refugee Movements

Globally, nearly 124 million people faced levels of food insecurity categorized as crisis or worse across 51 countries and territories in 2017. In this setting, an acute food crisis is ongoing in Nigeria, Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen, where at least 30 million people urgently need food assistance, including over 10 million people on the brink of famine (Supplementary Table 1). The funding needed for humanitarian assistance in these four countries was US $6.5 billion in 2017, which went 29% unmet. In fact, the World Food Programme - the leading humanitarian agency fighting global hunger - continues to face budget shortfalls in 2018 as the numerous food crises around the globe overwhelm budgets for humanitarian efforts in donor countries. Despite some success in warding off famine through emergency food assistance (for example, in Nigeria and South Sudan) the situation remains dire.

Puma, Michael J.

Enhancing risk and crisis communication with computational methods: A systematic literature review

Abstract Recent developments in risk and crisis communication (RCC) research combine social science theory and data science tools to construct effective risk messages efficiently. However, current systematic literature reviews (SLRs) on RCC primarily focus on computationally assessing message efficacy as opposed to message efficiency. We conduct an SLR to highlight any current computational methods that improve message construction efficacy and efficiency. We found that most RCC research focuses on using theoretical frameworks and computational methods to analyze or classify message elements that improve efficacy. For improving message efficiency, computational and manual methods are only used in message classification. Specifying the computational methods used in message construction is sparse. We recommend that future RCC research apply computational methods toward improving efficacy and efficiency in message construction. By improving message construction efficacy and efficiency, RCC messaging would quickly warn and better inform affected communities impacted by current hazards. Such messaging has the potential to save as many lives as possible.

Mathematical Methods In Social Sciences

Fighting the climate crisis with caloric heat pumping: Innovations to enable widespread adoption

Caloric heat pumping is a cross-cutting thermal energy technology that can cover a wide range of applications and temperatures, from millikelvins to hundreds of kelvins, with a working medium that has zero global warming potential. The technology promises cost savings and high efficiency, having 60% Carnot efficiency demonstrated to date. The Energy Earthshots™ Initiative, launched by the U.S. Department of Energy, aims to fight the climate crisis and overcome technological barriers to a decarbonized economy. The initiative focuses on the development of energy solutions that increase efficiency, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and ensure affordability. Three out of eight Energy Earthshots™ look for alternative thermal energy technologies for extensive temperature ranges, from hydrogen liquefaction to metal-treating temperatures. Caloric heat pumping can fulfill all these requirements; however, at the current stage, caloric systems have limited presence in real-world applications. Further, this perspective discusses key efforts to address barriers hindering the widespread adoption of caloric technology. We focus on essential breakthroughs in and effective approaches to material discovery and draw a path to high-power-density, grid-interactive caloric systems to support achieving the ambitious net-zero carbon economy goal.

42 ENGINEERING

Impacts of Water-Related Building Moratoria on California’s Housing Crisis

California is facing a housing affordability crisis, which has been partially blamed on building moratoria enacted to address the state’s severe water shortages. This study uses data on the enactment of moratoria in California from 2010 to 2018 to examine their impact on new housing supply and prices. We find that the short-term impact of the moratoria on housing supply is small, but the effect grows over time and becomes more significant in later years, especially for locally mandated moratoria. We do not, however, find that these supply shocks have had an impact on housing prices.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Technology Assessment of High Capacity Data Storage Systems: Can We Avoid a Data Survivability Crisis

The density of digital storage media in our information-intensive society increases by a factor of four every three years, while the rate at which this data can be migrated to viable long-term storage has been increasing by a factor of only four every nine years. Meanwhile, older data stored on increasingly obsolete media, are at considerable risk. When the systems for which the media were designed are no longer serviced by their manufacturers (many of whom are out of business), the data will no longer be accessible. In some cases, older media suffer from a physical breakdown of components - tapes simply lose their magnetic properties after a long time in storage. The scale of the crisis is compatible to that facing the Social Security System. Greater financial and intellectual resources to the development and refinement of new storage media and migration technologies in order to preserve as much data as possible.

Halem, M.

Four faces of baroreflex failure: hypertensive crisis, volatile hypertension, orthostatic tachycardia, and malignant vagotonia

BACKGROUND: The baroreflex normally serves to buffer blood pressure against excessive rise or fall. Baroreflex failure occurs when afferent baroreceptive nerves or their central connections become impaired. In baroreflex failure, there is loss of buffering ability, and wide excursions of pressure and heart rate occur. Such excursions may derive from endogenous factors such as stress or drowsiness, which result in quite high and quite low pressures, respectively. They may also derive from exogenous factors such as drugs or environmental influences. METHODS AND RESULTS: Impairment of the baroreflex may produce an unusually broad spectrum of clinical presentations; with acute baroreflex failure, a hypertensive crisis is the most common presentation. Over succeeding days to weeks, or in the absence of an acute event, volatile hypertension with periods of hypotension occurs and may continue for many years, usually with some attenuation of pressor surges and greater prominence of depressor valleys during long-term follow-up. With incomplete loss of baroreflex afferents, a mild syndrome of orthostatic tachycardia or orthostatic intolerance may appear. Finally, if the baroreflex failure occurs without concomitant destruction of the parasympathetic efferent vagal fibers, a resting state may lead to malignant vagotonia with severe bradycardia and hypotension and episodes of sinus arrest. CONCLUSIONS: Although baroreflex failure is not the most common cause of the above conditions, correct differentiation from other cardiovascular disorders is important, because therapy of baroreflex failure requires specific strategies, which may lead to successful control.

Review

Sharing knowledge with the public during a crisis: NASA's public portal

This case study looks at integrating the web governance policies and procedures, migration to a single content management solution, and integrating best-of-breed technology with high-impact, interactive components. In particular, this case study is interesting in the dynamic scalability of this application to meet the needs of an organization on the front lines during a crisis.

organizational learning

COVID-19 Crisis Reduces Free Tropospheric Ozone Across the Northern Hemisphere

Throughout spring and summer 2020, ozone stations in the northern extratropics recorded unusually low ozone in the free troposphere. From April to August, and from 1 to 8 kilometers altitude, ozone was on average 7% (≈4 nmol/mol) below the 2000–2020 climatological mean. Such low ozone, over several months, and at so many stations, has not been observed in any previous year since at least 2000. Atmospheric composition analyses from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service and simulations from the NASA GMI model indicate that the large 2020 springtime ozone depletion in the Arctic stratosphere contributed less than one-quarter of the observed tropospheric anomaly. The observed anomaly is consistent with recent chemistry-climate model simulations, which assume emissions reductions similar to those caused by the COVID-19 crisis. COVID-19 related emissions reductions appear to be the major cause for the observed reduced free tropospheric ozone in 2020.

COVID-19

Evaluating the Impact of Power Outages on Occupancy Patterns During the 2021 Texas Power Crisis

Large-scale power outages, such as those caused by extreme weather events, have a big impact on human behavior. A short power outage is merely a nuisance for most, and may not change people's locations. An outage that lasts for a few hours can result in spoiled food and medical supplies, and people will have to restock spoiled items. Long outages result in temperatures outside tolerable levels in homes, and may prompt people to acquire supplies, such as generators and gas, or change location. The long outages during Winter Storm Uri in Texas resulted in millions of dollars in property damage due to freezing pipes. This level of damage is expected to result in a sharp increase in supply runs and contractor activity. In this paper, we present a tool to explore differences in visiting patterns before, during, and after power outages. It allows to compare different points of interest like medical facilities, grocery stores, hardware stores, and other types of businesses.

big data

A Scalable and Cost-Effective Solution to the U.S. Housing Crisis: A Case Study on Locally Manufactured Modular Multifamily Housing

This case study assesses waste management efficiencies in modular buildings compared to traditional construction methods. We focus on the modular 1-bedroom Model/Z unit by Model Z Modular, LLC. As part of the collaboration between Model Z Modular and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, we analyzed waste metrics from design through construction, contrasting these findings against conventional stick-built and site-built multifamily buildings. The Model/Z unit is part of a strategic effort to address affordable housing shortages in South Los Angeles, where household income challenges are pronounced. The unit is produced in a state-of-the-art 150,000 sq. ft. modular manufacturing facility located within the city it is serving, and has so far supported the production of over 1,500 affordable housing units. Model/Z units have been used in projects with as many as 195 units, achieving large economies of scale and time. Our analysis demonstrates that modular construction reduces waste compared to traditional methods. This reduction is achieved through precise prefabrication techniques, the implementation of new framing methods, the concentration of workforce expertise, and streamlined logistics, which optimize material use and greatly reduce on-site handling. Additionally, local manufacturing minimizes transportation needs, improving overall project efficiency. The Model/Z unit exemplifies a scalable solution for enhancing housing affordability by optimizing resource utilization and minimizing associated costs. These methods support the delivery of high-quality units at reduced expenses, addressing critical urban housing shortages effectively. This case study underscores Model Z Modular's commitment to producing affordable, quality housing while fostering economic opportunities through job creation and training programs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI