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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Two-stage crash process in resistive drift ballooning mode driven ELM crash

We report a two-stage crash process in edge localized mode (ELM) driven by resistive drift-ballooning modes (RDBMs) numerically simulated in a full annular torus domain with a scale-separated four-field reduced MHD (RMHD) model using the BOUT++ framework. In the early nonlinear phase, the small first crash is triggered by linearly unstable RDBMs, and m/n=2/1 magnetic islands are nonlinearly excited by nonlinear coupling of RDBMs as well as their higher harmonics. Here, m is the poloidal mode number, n is the toroidal mode number, the q = 2 rational surface exists near the pressure gradient peak, and q is the safety factor. Simultaneously, middle-n RDBM turbulence develops but is poloidally localized around X-points of the magnetic islands, leading to the small energy loss. The second large crash occurs in the late nonlinear phase. Higher harmonics of m/n=2/1 magnetic islands well develop around the q = 2 surface via nonlinear coupling and make the magnetic field stochastic by magnetic island overlapping. Turbulence heat transport develops at X-points of higher harmonics of m/n=2/1 magnetic islands, resulting in the turbulence spreading in the poloidal direction. The large second crash is triggered when the turbulence covers the whole poloidal region so that the magnetic island generation and magnetic field stochastization before the large crash can be interpreted as ELM precursors. It is concluded that the ELM trigger is attributed to the turbulent spreading in the poloidal direction in synchronization with the magnetic field stochastization and the crash is driven by E × B convection rather than the conventional Rechester–Rosenbluth anomalous electron heat transport.

Seto, H. (ORCID:0000000259278643)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrated RMP-based ELM-crash-control process for plasma performance enhancement during ELM crash suppression in KSTAR

The integrated Resonant Magnetic Perturbation (RMP)-based Edge-Localized Mode (ELM)-crash-control process aims to enhance the plasma performance during the RMP-driven ELM crash suppression, where the RMP induces an unwanted confinement degradation. In this study, the normalized beta ($\beta_\textrm{N}$) is introduced as a metric for plasma performance. The integrated process incorporates the latest achievements in the RMP technique to enhance $\beta_\textrm{N}$ efficiently. The integrated process triggers the n = 1 Edge-localized RMP (ERMP) at the L–H transition timing using the real-time Machine Learning (ML) classifier. The pre-emptive RMP onset can reduce the required external heating power for achieving the same $\beta_\textrm{N}$ by over 10% compared to the conventional onset. During the RMP phase, the adaptive feedback RMP ELM controller, demonstrating its performance in previous experiments, plays a crucial role in maximizing $\beta_\textrm{N}$ during the suppression phase and sustaining the $\beta_\textrm{N}$-enhanced suppression state by optimizing the RMP strength. The integrated process achieves $\beta_\textrm{N}$ up to ~2.65 during the suppression phase, which is ~10% higher than the previous KSTAR record but ~6% lower than the target of the K-DEMO first phase ($\beta_\textrm{N}$ = 2.8), and maintains the suppression phase above the lower limit of target $\beta_\textrm{N}$ (= 2.4) for ~4 s (~60$\tau_\textrm{E}$). In addition to $\beta_\textrm{N}$ enhancement, the integrated process demonstrates quicker restoration of the suppression phase and recovery of $\beta_\textrm{N}$ compared to the adaptive control with the n = 1 Conventional RMP (CRMP). The post-analysis of the experiment shows the localized effect of the ERMP spectrum in radial and the close relationship between the evolution of $\beta_\textrm{N}$ and the electron temperature.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Secondary Crash Identification using Crowdsourced Waze User Reports

Secondary crashes are crashes that occur as a result of the nonrecurrent congestion originating from primary crashes, and always have a greater impact on safety and traffic than a single crash. A better understanding of secondary crashes would benefit traffic incident management, and this requires accurate identification of secondary crashes. This study explores using crowdsourced Waze user reports to identify secondary crashes. Here, a network-based clustering algorithm is proposed to extract the primary crash cluster, including all user reports originating from the primary crash, and any crash that occurred within the cluster would be a secondary crash. This method works as a filter to select accurate primary–secondary relationships, thus precisely identifying secondary crashes. A case study is performed with crashes occurring from June to December 2019 on a 30-mi stretch of I-40 in Knoxville, TN. A static threshold method (crash duration and 10 mi) was used to preselect the potential primary–secondary crash pairs, and 75 out of 708 crashes were identified as potential secondary crashes. Based on the preselected primary–secondary crash pairs, 17 secondary crashes were obtained with the proposed method and the results were compared with one of the commonly used methods, the speed contour plot method. Though the proposed method captured fewer secondary crashes, it did identify several secondary crashes that could not be observed with the speed contour plot method. The results showed the applicability of the method and the potential of crowdsourced Waze user reports in secondary crash identification.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Crash Risks Evaluation of Urban Expressways: A Case Study in Shanghai

We report that proactive traffic safety management systems can reduce crashes by identifying crash precursors, evaluating real-time crash risks, and implementing suitable interventions. The basic prerequisite for developing such a system is to propose a reliable crash risk evaluation model that takes real-time traffic flow data as input. Previous studies have primarily focused on real-time crash prediction using some statistical or machine-learning methods. However, further quantitative evaluation and classification of crash risks have been ignored. In this study, we conduct a systematic crash risk evaluation workflow, including crash risk prediction, crash risk quantification, and crash risk classification. Specifically, the crash risk prediction using an extended logit model is proposed, from which CAS, CSD, UAS, DAS, DTV are identified to be contributing factors of crash risks. Then a crash risk quantification model based on the parameter evaluation of the extended logit model is developed. The crash risks of urban expressways and their spatial-temporal evolution trends are quantified. Finally, the crash risks are classified into high crash risk level, moderate crash risk level, and low crash risk level by the k-means cluster algorithm. Then the threshold boundaries of different crash risk levels are determined. The research results provide a proactive guidance for traffic safety management of urban expressways.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Understanding the Effects of Vehicle Platoons on Crash Type and Severity

Crash type is an informative indicator to infer driving behaviors and conditions that cause a crash. For example, rear-end and side-swipe crashes are typically caused by improper vehicle interaction such as sudden lane-changing or speed control while hit-object crashes are likely the result of a single driver’s mistake. This study investigated the impact of vehicles travelling as a group (platoon) and its configuration (i.e., types of vehicles consisting of the platoon) on crash type and severity since the vehicles could affect each other when travelling in close proximity. This study applied Generalized Structure Equation Modeling (GSEM) to capture the complex relationships among the various crash factors such as traffic condition, driver characteristics, environmental conditions, and vehicle interaction to the crash attributes including type and severity. This study collected over 3 million individual vehicle data from 39 traffic count sites in California to estimate the vehicle interactions and driving behaviors. The microscopic traffic data are matched to 1417 crash reports. Results showed that vehicles traveling in platoons are associated with more rear-end and side-swipe crashes. Speed difference in the platoon had a positive effect on hit-object crashes if the platoon comprises vehicles of homogeneous type – either trucks or non-trucks. In addition, human factors such as age and gender were identified as significant influential factors in all type of crashes, however truck involvement particularly played an important role amongst side-swipe crashes. Crash severity was negatively affected by total flow, and rear-end crashes were more likely to be severe compared with hit-object crashes. Based on findings, this study suggests practical operational strategies to reduce traffic instability associated with platooned vehicle patterns. Understanding the high-risk factors for different crash types and severities would provide valuable insights for decision-makers and transportation engineers to develop targeted intervention strategies in consideration of road users and traffic conditions such as fleet mix and speed.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Implementation of a realistic artificial data generator for crash data generation

In this paper, a framework is outlined to generate realistic artificial data (RAD) as a tool for comparing different models developed for safety analysis. The primary focus of transportation safety analysis is on identifying and quantifying the influence of factors contributing to traffic crash occurrence and its consequences. The current framework of comparing model structures using only observed data has limitations. With observed data, it is not possible to know how well the models mimic the true relationship between the dependent and independent variables. Further, real datasets do not allow researchers to evaluate the model performance for different levels of complexity of the dataset. RAD offers an innovative framework to address these limitations. Hence, we propose a RAD generation framework embedded with heterogeneous causal structures that generates crash data by considering crash occurrence as a trip level event impacted by trip level factors, demographics, roadway and vehicle attributes. Within our RAD generator we employ three specific modules: (a) disaggregate trip information generation, (b) crash data generation and (c) crash data aggregation. For disaggregate trip information generation, we employ a daily activity-travel realization for an urban region generated from an established activity-based model for the Chicago region. We use this data of more than 2 million daily trips to generate a subset of trips with crash data. For trips with crashes crash location, crash type, driver/vehicle characteristics, and crash severity. The daily RAD generation process is repeated for generating crash records at yearly or multi-year resolution. In conclusion, the crash databases generated can be employed to compare frequency models, severity models, crash type and various other dimensions by facility type - possibly establishing a universal benchmarking system for alternative model frameworks in safety literature.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating the Impact of Temporal and Directional Traffic Distribution on Crash Frequencies

Safety Performance Functions (SPFs) are mathematical models that establish relationships between the frequency of various crash types and site-specific characteristics, serving as essential tools for traffic safety analysis and roadway design. Traditional SPFs, however, often overlook the temporal fluctuations in traffic flow (such as peak-hour surges) and directional imbalances between opposing traffic streams. These traffic patterns can exacerbate congestion, disrupt driver behavior, and create unexpected conflict points, potentially leading to increased crash frequencies and more severe accidents. In light of this gap, this study aims to explore the potential of incorporating K-factors (representing peak-hour traffic proportions) and D-factors (reflecting the imbalance of directional traffic) into the development of SPFs to assess whether these factors can effectively represent the impact of temporal and spatial traffic distribution on roadway safety. Using crash data from Pennsylvania urban-suburban collector roadways, it is found that the D-factor plays a significant role in predicting the frequency of total crashes, fatal + injury crashes, and angle crashes, with positive coefficient signs indicating that higher directional imbalances correspond to increased crash risks. Similarly, the K-factor emerges as a critical predictor for fatal + injury crashes and rear-end crashes, with negative coefficients suggesting that a more pronounced traffic peak is associated with a reduction in expected crash frequencies. These results highlight the importance of accounting for uneven traffic distribution in both time and direction when developing SPFs, offering deeper insights into crash patterns and supporting more effective safety interventions and roadway designs.

Xu, Guanhao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000214326357)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Exploratory Investigation of Disengagements and Crashes in Autonomous Vehicles Under Mixed Traffic: An Endogenous Switching Regime Framework

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) have a large potential to improve traffic safety but also pose some critical challenges. While AVs may help reduce crashes caused by human error, they still may experience failures of technologies and sensing, as well as decision-making errors in a mixed traffic environment. A disengagement refers to an AV transitioning control from autonomous systems to the trained test driver. The safety critical nature of disengagements makes it imperative to analyze disengagements and crashes together. In this study, we analyze both crashes and disengagements from real-world AV driving in California to fill the knowledge gap regarding the relationship between disengagements and crashes in a mixed traffic environment. A nested logit model was calibrated using three different outcomes: (1) disengagement with a crash, (2) disengagement with no crash, and (3) no disengagement with a crash. Furthermore, endogenous switching regime models were also calibrated to draw distinctions between the relation of disengagements and crashes while accounting for endogeneity effects. The results show that factors related to AV systems (such as software failures) and other roadway participants increase the propensity of a disengagement without a crash. Furthermore, AVs were observed to disengage less often as the technology matured over time. Marginal effects revealed an 8% decrease. The results thus suggest that disengagements are a part of AVs' safe performance and disengagement alerts may need to be triggered in order to avoid certain failures with current technology.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Collective Risk Ranking of Highway Segments on the Basis of Severity-Weighted Crash Rates

This study is intended to focus on the major factors affecting traffic crash rates and severity levels, in addition to identifying crash-prone locations (i.e., black spots) based on the two indicators. The available crash data for different road segments used for the analysis were obtained from the Washington state database provided by the Highway Safety Information System (HSIS) for the years 2006 to 2011. A Random Forest (RF) classifier was used to predict the outcome level of crash severity, while crash rates were predicted by applying RF regressor. Certain features were selected for each model besides the abstraction of new features to check if there are unobserved correlations affecting the independent variables, such as accounting for the number and weight of crashes within 1 km2 area by implementing the Getis-Ord Gi∗ index. Moreover, to calculate the collective risk (CR) score, crash rates were adjusted to incorporate crash severity weights (cost per severity type) and regression-to-the-mean (RTM) bias via Empirical Bayes (EB) method. Finally, segments were ranked according to their CR score.

Li, Dawei↗
DOE OSTI2019

Test of the ITER-like resonant magnetic perturbation configurations for edge-localized mode crash suppression on KSTAR

KSTAR has demonstrated divertor heat flux broadening during edge-localized-mode (ELM)-crash-suppression using ITER-like 3-row resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) for the first time. To address a couple of critical issues in ITER RMP, robust ELM-crash-suppression methodology has been explored at low q95 and established in KSTAR using low-nRMPs. Taking full advantage of the ITER-like 3-row in-vessel control coils (IVCC) in KSTAR, a set of intentionally misaligned RMP configurations (IMC) was tested to investigate whether or not IMC could be compatible with ELM-crash-suppression, while minimizing electromagnetic loads on RMP coils. As a result, the ITER-like 3-row IMCs were found not only to have been compatible with the ELM-crash-suppression, but also to have broadened the divertor heat fluxesin the vicinity of the outer strike point. In comparison, the 2-row RMPs have rarely affected the near scrape-off-layer (SOL) heat flux despite slightly broadened profile change in the far-SOL. Since the divertor heat flux broadening reflects the dispersal of the peaked near-SOL heat flux, the experimental outcome is quite favorable to the ITER choice of 3-rows, instead of 2-rows. Nonetheless, since the IMC-driven broadening observed in the attached plasmas in KSTAR might appear substantially different in the partially detached plasmas in ITER, additional investigation has been conducted to see if RMP-driven, ELM-crash-suppression could be compatible with detached plasmas. Although no detached plasmas have been identified with ELM-crash-suppression yet, significantly reduced divertor heat flux was confirmed in high density, ELM-crash-suppressed plasmas at q 95 =3.4using n=2 RMPs. These new findings elevate the confidence level about the ITER RMP system, while the remaining uncertainties need to be further clarified using the 3-row IVCCs in KSTAR. As long as mode-locking percussion is minimized along with a quick recovery of wall conditions, the access to the targeted q95(~ 3) for ITER is foreseen to be feasible in KSTAR

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian modeling framework for crash severity effects of active traffic management systems

Transportation agencies utilize Active traffic management (ATM) systems to dynamically manage recurrent and non-recurrent congestion based on real-time conditions. While these systems have been shown to have some safety benefits, their impact on injury severity outcomes is currently uncertain. In this paper, we used full Bayesian mixed logit models to quantify the impact that ATM deployment had on crash severities. The estimation results revealed lower severities with ATM deployment. Marginal effects for ATM deployments that featured hard shoulder running (HSR) revealed lower likelihoods for severe and moderate injury crashes of 15.9 % and for minor injury crashes of 10.1 %. The likelihood of severe and moderate injury crashes and minor injury crashes reduced by 12.4 % and 8.33 % with ATM without HSR. The models were observed to be temporally transferable and had forecast error of 0.301 and 0.304 for the two models, revealing better performance with validation data. These results have implications for improving freeway crash risk at critical locations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Injury severity analysis of truck-involved crashes under different weather conditions

This paper investigates truck-involved crashes to determine the statistically significant factors that contribute to injury severity under different weather conditions. The analysis uses crash data from the state of Ohio between 2011 and 2015 available from the Highway Safety Information System. To determine if weather conditions should be considered separately for truck safety analyses, parameter transferability tests are conducted; the results suggest that weather conditions should be modeled separately with a high level of statistical confidence. To this end, three separate mixed logit models are estimated for three different weather conditions: normal, rain and snow. The estimated models identify a variety of statistically significant factors influencing the injury severity. Different weather conditions are found to have different contributing effects on injury severity in truck-involved crashes. Rural, rear-end and sideswipe crash parameters were found to have significantly different levels of impact on injury severity. Based on the findings of this study, several countermeasures are suggested: 1) safety and enforcement programs should focus on female truck drivers, 2) a variable speed limit sign should be used to lower speeds of trucks during rainy condition, and 3) trucks should be restricted or prohibited on non-interstates during rainy and snowy conditions. These countermeasures could reduce the number and severity of truck-involved crashes under different weather conditions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nonlinear magnetohydrodynamic modeling of current-drive-induced sawtooth-like crashes in the W7-X stellarator

Sawtooth-like core electron temperature crashes have been observed in W7-X experiments with electron cyclotron current drive. Here we present nonlinear single-fluid magnetohydrodynamic simulations of this phenomenon using the newly developed stellarator modeling capability of the M3D-C 1 code. The near-axis current drive gives rise to two ι = 1 resonances in the equilibrium rotational transform profile so that two consecutive (1, 1) internal kink modes are seen in the simulations. A small-amplitude crash at the inner resonance occurs first, which may correspond to the sawtooth precursors observed in the experiments. A bigger crash at the outer resonance then flattens the core temperature profile, which shows semi-quantitative agreements with experimental measurements on certain metrics such as the crash amplitude and the inversion radius of the temperature change. These results illustrate a likely mechanism of the current-drive-induced sawtooth-like crashes in W7-X and, to some extent, validate the stellarator modeling capability of M3D-C 1 .

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Effect of sawtooth crashes on fast ion distribution in NSTX-U

During the 2016 experimental campaign of NSTX-U (Menard et al 2012 Nucl. Fusion 52 083015), long L-mode and reproducible sawtoothing plasmas have been achieved that were previously not accessible before the upgrade. This provides a good opportunity to study the effect of sawtooth crashes on fast ion confinement and redistribution in spherical tokamaks. The solid-state neutral particle analyzer (SSNPA) and fast ion D-alpha (FIDA) diagnostics on NSTX-U each have a tangentially-viewing instrument and a radially- or vertically-viewing instrument, which are mainly sensitive to passing and trapped fast ions, respectively. It has been observed on both diagnostics that passing particles are strongly expelled from the plasma core to the edge during sawtooth crashes, while trapped fast ions are weakly affected. The tangentially-viewing SSNPA observes large signal spikes at the sawtooth crashes because fast ions move to the edge and charge exchange with edge neutrals. The radially-viewing SSNPA data suggest that there is a small drop of trapped particles in the core. The tangentially-viewing FIDA (t-FIDA) system observes a depletion as large as 25% in the region inside the inversion radius, while an increase at the outer region. There is almost no change in the signals of the vertically-viewing FIDA system. The neutron emission can drop as much as 15% at the sawtooth crashes, accompanied by an increase of edge D α light. Simulations with the Kadomstev and Porcelli sawtooth models have also been performed and compared with the measurements. The full reconnection Kadomtsev model overestimates the neutron rate drop at each sawtooth crash. When tuning the sawtooth input parameters, the partial reconnection Porcelli sawtooth model can qualitatively reproduce the neutron rate drop and t-FIDA signal drop in the core, but it fails to predict the t-FIDA signal increase at the edge.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Analysis of the Spatial Variations in the Relationship Between Built Environment and Severe Crashes

Traffic crashes significantly contribute to global fatalities, particularly in urban areas, highlighting the need to evaluate the relationship between urban environments and traffic safety. This study extends former spatial modeling frameworks by drawing paths between global models, including spatial lag (SLM), and spatial error (SEM), and local models, including geographically weighted regression (GWR), multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR), and multi-scale geographically weighted regression with spatially lagged dependent variable (MGWRL). Utilizing the proposed framework, this study analyzes severe traffic crashes in relation to urban built environments using various spatial regression models within Leon County, Florida. According to the results, SLM outperforms OLS, SEM, and GWR models. Local models with lagged dependent variables outperform both the global and generic versions of the local models in all performance measures, whereas MGWR and MGWRL outperform GWR and GWRL. Local models performed better than global models, showing spatial non-stationarity; so, the relationship between the dependent and independent variables varies over space. The better performance of models with lagged dependent variables signifies that the spatial distribution of severe crashes is correlated. Finally, the better performance of multi-scale local models than classical local models indicates varying influences of independent variables with different bandwidths. According to the MGWRL model, census block groups close to the urban area with higher population, higher education level, and lower car ownership rates have lower crash rates. On the contrary, motor vehicle percentage for commuting is found to have a negative association with severe crash rate, which suggests the locality of the mentioned associations.

Alisan, Onur (ORCID:0000000193113984)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Core inductive electric field during sawtooth crashes on DIII-D

Sawtooth crashes on tokamak plasmas exhibit relaxation much faster than resistive time scales via a mechanism not fully understood. Using core magnetic measurements from the Radial Interferometer-Polarimeter (RIP) diagnostic on the DIII-D tokamak, Grad–Shafranov equilibria constrained by internal magnetic measurements that have high time resolution (<1μs) can be computed, allowing analysis of how equilibrium parameters such as safety factor q, current density J, and parallel electric field E ∥ , particularly on-axis, evolve. At the sawtooth crash, on-axis safety factor q 0 is observed to rise by 5% but remain below 1 throughout the cycle, and on-axis current density J 0 is observed to drop by 5%. On-axis parallel electric field E ∥ (0) is found to be balanced by ηJ 0 (resistivity times on-axis current density) except during the 200 µs crash period, where E ∥ (0) reaches 22 V m –1 , exceeding ηJ 0 by a factor of more than 2000. These first measurements in tokamak plasmas verify that generalized Ohm's law is not balanced during the crash by resistive effects alone; this is a finding expected due to the relaxation being much faster than resistive timescales. As a result, measurement of the electric field during the tokamak sawtooth serves to illuminate the physical mechanisms at work.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Chemical Profiling of Volatile Organic Compounds in the Headspace of Algal Cultures as Early Biomarkers of Algal Pond Crashes

Algae ponds used in industrial biomass production are susceptible to pathogen or grazer infestation, resulting in pond crashes with high economic costs. Current methods to monitor and mitigate unhealthy ponds are hindered by a lack of early indicators that precede culture crash. We used solid-phase microextraction (SPME) coupled with gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) to identify volatiles emitted from healthy and rotifer infested cultures of Microchloropsis salina. After 48 hours of algal growth, marine rotifers, Brachionus plicatilis, were added to the algae cultures and volatile organic compounds (VOC) were sampled from the headspace using SPME fibers. A GC-MS approach was used in an untargeted analysis of VOCs, followed by preliminary identification. The addition of B. plicatilis to healthy cultures of M. salina resulted in decreased algal cell numbers, relative to uninfected controls, and generated trans-β-ionone and β-cyclocitral, which were attributed to carotenoid degradation. The abundances of the carotenoid-derived VOCs increased with rotifer consumption of algae. Our results indicate that specific VOCs released by infected algae cultures may be early indicators for impending pond crashes, providing a useful tool to monitor algal biomass production and pond crash prevention.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗