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Cost-performance tradeoffs of aerospace launch vehicle expandable structural components, investigating program factors, materials and construction technologies
A study is described which was initiated to identify and quantify the interrelationships between and within the performance, safety, cost, and schedule parameters for unmanned, automated payload programs. The result of the investigation was a systems cost/performance model which was implemented as a digital computer program and could be used to perform initial program planning, cost/performance tradeoffs, and sensitivity analyses for mission model and advanced payload studies. Program objectives and results are described briefly.
An analytical cost-performance model for a ground-based optical communications receiving telescope is presented. The model considers costs of existing telescopes as a function of diameter and field of view. This, coupled with communication performance as a function of receiver diameter and field of view, yields the appropriate telescope cost versus communication performance curve.
A methodology for developing balanced designs of spacecraft subsystems which interrelates cost, performance, safety, and schedule considerations was developed. The methodology consists of a two-step process: selection of all hardware designs which satisfy the given performance and safety requirements; and estimating the cost and schedule required to design, build, and operate each spacecraft design. Aggregate equations were written to describe the performance, safety (reliability), cost, and schedule required for one type of stabilization and control subsystem in terms of the equipment used. The methodology was applied to unmanned, automated spacecraft subsystems, and the resulting model was implemented as a digital computer program.
Adaptive automation offers the option of flexible function allocation between the pilot and on-board computer systems. One of the important claims for the superiority of adaptive over static automation is that such systems do not suffer from some of the drawbacks associated with conventional function allocation. Several experiments designed to test this claim are reported in this article. The efficacy of adaptive function allocation was examined using a laboratory flight-simulation task involving multiple functions of tracking, fuel-management, and systems monitoring. The results show that monitoring inefficiency represents one of the performance costs of static automation. Adaptive function allocation can reduce the performance cost associated with long-term static automation.
New methods are presented for evaluating the expected performance cost of partially observed closed-loop stochastic systems. When the variances of the process statistics are small, a linearized model of the closed-loop stochastic system is defined for which the expected cost can be evaluated by recursion on a set of purely deterministic difference equations. When the variances of the process statistics are large, the linearized model can be used in the control variate method of variance reduction for reducing the number of sample paths required for effective Monte Carlo estimation.
This paper explores the costs and performance required to deliver a small-sized payload package (CubeSat-sized, for instance) to various transportation nodes en route to Mars and near-Mars destinations (such as Mars moons, Phobos and Deimos). Needed is a contemporary assessment and summary compilation of transportation metrics that factor both performance and affordability of modern and emerging delivery capabilities. The paper brings together: (a) required mass transport gear ratios in delivering payload from Earths surface to the Mars vicinity, (b) the cyclical energy required for delivery, and (c) the affordability and availability of various means of transporting material across various Earth-Moon vicinity and Near-Mars vicinity nodes relevant to Mars transportation. Examples for unit deliveries are computed and tabulated, using a CubeSat as a unit, for periodic near-Mars delivery campaign scenarios.
An improved method for estimating aircraft weight and cost using a unique and fundamental approach was developed. The results of this study were integrated into a comprehensive digital computer program, which is intended for use at the preliminary design stage of aircraft development. The program provides a means of computing absolute values for weight and cost, and enables the user to perform trade studies with a sensitivity to detail design and overall structural arrangement. Both batch and interactive graphics modes of program operation are available.
Cost analysis and computer programs for optimal assignment of expendable and reusable launch vehicles in multi-year, multi-mission space program
Scenarios for human lunar operations with capabilities significantly beyond Constellation Program baseline missions are potentially feasible based on the concept of dual, sequential missions utilizing a common crew and a single Ares I/CEV (Crew Exploration Vehicle). For example, scenarios possible within the scope of baseline technology planning include outpost-based sortie missions and dual sortie missions. Top level cost benefits of these dual sortie scenarios may be estimated by comparison to the Constellation Program reference two-mission-per-year lunar campaign. The primary cost benefit is the accomplishment of Mission B with a "single launch solution" since no Ares I launch is required. Cumulative risk to the crew is lowered since crew exposure to launch risks and Earth return risks are reduced versus comparable Constellation Program reference two-mission-per-year scenarios. Payload-to-the-lunar-surface capability is substantially increased in the Mission B sortie as a result of additional propellant available for Lunar Lander #2 descent. This additional propellant is a result of EDS #2 transferring a smaller stack through trans-lunar injection and using remaining propellant to perform a portion of the lunar orbit insertion (LOI) maneuver. This paper describes these dual mission concepts, including cost, risk and performance benefits per lunar sortie site, and provides an initial feasibility assessment.
Computerized probabilistic model for optimal cost assignment of launch vehicle programs to advanced space missions
This paper summarizes recent work in developing space laser communications hardware at MIT Lincoln Laboratory, describing how state-of-the-art fiber optic components provide performance and reliability in emerging lasercom system designs.
Manual of computer program for probabilistic optimal launch vehicle assignment and budget smoothing model
A digital computer program for evaluating the weight and costs of advanced transport designs was developed. The resultant program, intended for use at the preliminary design level, incorporates both batch mode and interactive graphics run capability. The basis of the weight and cost estimation method developed is a unique way of predicting the physical design of each detail part of a vehicle structure at a time when only configuration concept drawings are available. In addition, the technique relies on methods to predict the precise manufacturing processes and the associated material required to produce each detail part. Weight data are generated in four areas of the program. Overall vehicle system weights are derived on a statistical basis as part of the vehicle sizing process. Theoretical weights, actual weights, and the weight of the raw material to be purchased are derived as part of the structural synthesis and part definition processes based on the computed part geometry.
The Poisson arrival model was used to determine the effects of limiting the number of channels for a disaster warning satellite. State probabilities and delay probabilities were estimated for several values of the number of channels (C) for arrival and service rates obtained from disaster warnings issued by the National Weather Service. The results predicted by the queueing model were compared with the results of a digital computer simulation.
A modified Poisson arrival, infinite server queuing model is used to determine the effects of limiting the number of broadcast channels (C) of a direct broadcast satellite used for public service purposes (remote health care, education, etc.). The model is based on the reproductive property of the Poisson distribution. A difference equation has been developed to describe the change in the Poisson parameter. When all initially delayed arrivals reenter the system a (C plus 1) order polynomial must be solved to determine the effective value of the Poisson parameter. When less than 100% of the arrivals reenter the system the effective value must be determined by solving a transcendental equation. The model was used to determine the minimum number of channels required for a disaster warning satellite without degradation in performance. Results predicted by the queuing model were compared with the results of digital simulation.
There are no author-identified significant results in this report.
Cost estimates for production of the electrical energy needed in the early twenty-first century are provided. Costs and performance of the Satellite Power System are compared with alternative methods of producing electrical energy.