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NASA NTRS2013

NextGen Flight Deck Surface Trajectory-Based Operations (STBO): Contingency Holds

The purpose of this pilot-in-the-loop taxi simulation was to investigate a NextGen Surface Trajectory-Based Operations (STBO) concept called "contingency holds." The contingency-hold concept parses a taxi route into segments, allowing an air traffic control (ATC) surface traffic management (STM) system to hold an aircraft when necessary for safety. Under nominal conditions, if the intersection or active runway crossing is clear, the hold is removed, allowing the aircraft to continue taxiing without slowing, thus improving taxi efficiency, while minimizing the excessive brake use, fuel burn, and emissions associated with stop-and-go taxi. However, when a potential traffic conflict exists, the hold remains in place as a fail-safe mechanism. In this departure operations simulation, the taxi clearance included a required time of arrival (RTA) to a specified intersection. The flight deck was equipped with speed-guidance avionics to aid the pilot in safely meeting the RTA. On two trials, the contingency hold was not released, and pilots were required to stop. On two trials the contingency hold was released 15 sec prior to the RTA, and on two trials the contingency hold was released 30 sec prior to the RTA. When the hold remained in place, all pilots complied with the hold. Results also showed that when the hold was released at 15-sec or 30-sec prior to the RTA, the 30-sec release allowed pilots to maintain nominal taxi speed, thus supporting continuous traffic flow; whereas, the 15-sec release did not. The contingency-hold concept, with at least a 30-sec release, allows pilots to improve taxiing efficiency by reducing braking, slowing, and stopping, but still maintains safety in that no pilots "busted" the clearance holds. Overall, the evidence suggests that the contingency-hold concept is a viable concept for optimizing efficiency while maintaining safety.

NextGen↗

NASA NTRS1987

OMV servicing missions from Space Station

The Orbital Maneuvering Vehicle (OMV) will provide a means of bringing large observatories to the Space Station for servicing and redeployment to their operating altitudes. However, there are many constraints which must be met in mission planning. The missions must be designed so that propellant consumption is within the usable allowance, but contingency operations can still be accomplished. The vehicle was designed specifically to accommodate such missions, with emphasis upon servicing the Hubble Space Telescope. The OMV has been designed for operations from the Shuttle Orbiter and the Space Station. It will readily accommodate basing at the Space Station and executing observatory retrieval and redeployment missions. Mission profiles have been designed which allow retrieval with contingency hold before descent, and which allow contingency return of the observatory if it fails to reactivate properly. This capability will be a major addition to the Space Transportation System and will increase the utility of the Space Station.

Jennings, Jerry L.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Multi-Maneuver Clohessy-Wiltshire Targeting

Orbital rendezvous involves execution of a sequence of maneuvers by a chaser vehicle to bring the chaser to a desired state relative to a target vehicle while meeting intermediate and final relative constraints. Intermediate and final relative constraints are necessary to meet a multitude of requirements such as to control approach direction, ensure relative position is adequate for operation of space-to-space communication systems and relative sensors, provide fail-safe trajectory features, and provide contingency hold points. The effect of maneuvers on constraints is often coupled, so the maneuvers must be solved for as a set. For example, maneuvers that affect orbital energy change both the chaser's height and downrange position relative to the target vehicle. Rendezvous designers use experience and rules-of-thumb to design a sequence of maneuvers and constraints. A non-iterative method is presented for targeting a rendezvous scenario that includes a sequence of maneuvers and relative constraints. This method is referred to as Multi-Maneuver Clohessy-Wiltshire Targeting (MM_CW_TGT). When a single maneuver is targeted to a single relative position, the classic CW targeting solution is obtained. The MM_CW_TGT method involves manipulation of the CW state transition matrix to form a linear system. As a starting point for forming the algorithm, the effects of a series of impulsive maneuvers on the state are derived. Simple and moderately complex examples are used to demonstrate the pattern of the resulting linear system. The general form of the pattern results in an algorithm for formation of the linear system. The resulting linear system relates the effect of maneuver components and initial conditions on relative constraints specified by the rendezvous designer. Solution of the linear system includes the straight-forward inverse of a square matrix. Inversion of the square matrix is assured if the designer poses a controllable scenario - a scenario where the the constraints can be met by the sequence of maneuvers. Matrices in the linear system are dependent on selection of maneuvers and constraints by the designer, but the matrices are independent of the chaser's initial conditions. For scenarios where the sequence of maneuvers and constraints are fixed, the linear system can be formed and the square matrix inverted prior to real-time operations. Example solutions are presented for several rendezvous scenarios to illustrate the utility of the method. The MM_CW_TGT method has been used during the preliminary design of rendezvous scenarios and is expected to be useful for iterative methods in the generation of an initial guess and corrections.

Dannemiller, David P.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Training for Aviation Decision Making: The Naturalistic Decision Making Perspective

This paper describes the implications of a naturalistic decision making (NDM) perspective for training air crews to make flight-related decisions. The implications are based on two types of analyses: (a) identification of distinctive features that serve as a basis for classifying a diverse set of decision events actually encountered by flight crews, and (b) performance strategies that distinguished more from less effective crews flying full-mission simulators, as well as performance analyses from NTSB accident investigations. Six training recommendations are offered: (1) Because of the diversity of decision situations, crews need to be aware that different strategies may be appropriate for different problems; (2) Given that situation assessment is essential to making a good decision, it is important to train specific content knowledge needed to recognize critical conditions, to assess risks and available time, and to develop strategies to verify or diagnose the problem; (3) Tendencies to oversimplify problems may be overcome by training to evaluate options in terms of goals, constraints, consequences, and prevailing conditions; (4) In order to provide the time to gather information and consider options, it is essential to manage the situation, which includes managing crew workload, prioritizing tasks, contingency planning, buying time (e.g., requesting holding or vectors), and using low workload periods to prepare for high workload; (5) Evaluating resource requirements ("What do I need?") and capabilities ("'What do I have?" ) are essential to making good decisions. Using resources to meet requirements may involve the cabin crew, ATC, dispatchers, and maintenance personnel; (6) Given that decisions must often be made under high risk, time pressure, and workload, train under realistic flight conditions to promote the development of robust decision skills.

Orasanu, Judith↗

DOE OSTI2024

03.02.02.45: Energy Efficiency Improvement Approaches in Ice Related Processes

The primary objective of this project was to facilitate the dislocation of the interfacial ice layer by employing advanced materials and ultrasonic vibration to reduce ice adhesion strength. This work employed two technical approaches that were thoroughly investigated and previously reported. The effectiveness of these approaches, both individually and in combination, has been quantified, demonstrating notable energy savings. The projected payback period for these enhancements is approximately 2.2 years or less, contingent upon specific energy costs. Furthermore, these advancements hold significant promise for reducing carbon emissions across various equipment scales. This study particularly focused on the ultrasonic deicing technique for diverse structures, utilizing numerical simulations to evaluate performance and potential benefits.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2011

Thoughts Without Content are Empty, Intuitions Without Concepts are Blind - Determinism and Contingency Revisited

Was the emergence of life a predictable outcome of chemical evolution on earth? Could evolution produce life very different from ours? These are one of the oldest questions in the field of the origin of life that not only have broad philosophical implications but also impact how we approach the problem from the methodological standpoint. Framing the issue in terms of the dichotomy between contingency and determinism is not a fortunate because these two terms in their conventional meaning are neither mutually exclusive nor jointly exhaustive. Determinism, represented in natural sciences by Newtonian physics, relies on the assumption that every event is causally determined by a chain of previous events. In the context of the origin of life it means that once the initial conditions on the early earth have been specified further evolution follows inevitably. Considering uncertainties about conditions on the prebiotic earth, many plausible sets of initial conditions can be defined, each followed by a separate deterministic trajectory. This conventional understanding of determinism does not admit contingency. Further, it has no implications for evaluating how many sets of initial conditions lead to the emergence of life. It appears that a better framing of the problem is as follows: given plausible sets of initial conditions on the early earth how probable and broadly spread are evolutionary trajectories that lead to life? Instead of undertaking an impossible task of specifying microscopic initial conditions for all components of the system one uses a reduced representation of this system and specify only a small set of essential macroscopic parameters, values (or ranges of values) of which can be identified, inferred or estimated from experiment, theory or historical record. The following evolutionary trajectories are still governed by laws of physics and chemistry but become probabilistic and "contingency" is admitted as variations in other variables in the system. A similar reasoning is common in other fields of science, for example in statistical mechanics. Some trajectories lead to life, perhaps in different forms, whereas others do not. Of our true interest is the ratio of these two outcomes. The issue of determinism does not directly enter the picture. The debate about the likelihood of the emergence of life is quite old. One view holds that the origin of life is an event governed by chance, and the result of so many random events (contingencies) is unpredictable. This view was eloquently expressed by Monod. In his book "Chance or Necessity" he argued that life was a product of "nature's roulette." In an alternative view, expressed in particular by deDuve and Morowitz, the origin of life is considered a highly probable or even inevitable event (although its details need not be determined in every respect). Only in this sense the origin of life can be considered a "deterministic event".

Pohorille, Andrew↗

DOE OSTI2025

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Applications in Modern Power Systems

Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms offer valuable tools for the analysis and interpretation of large datasets. These tools have the capability to uncover insights that may not be readily apparent within these datasets. In recent years, the integration of ML and AI has become increasingly prevalent in various applications within the power system domain. One of the earliest instances of machine learning in power systems can be traced back to demand forecasting, where artificial neural networks were employed for short-term load forecasting. In contemporary power systems, an abundance of high-resolution geospatial and temporal data is generated at various time intervals, ranging from sub-seconds (Phasor Measurement Units or PMUs) to seconds (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition or SCADA), minutes (Process Information or PI), and extending to days, months, and years. These datasets contain valuable information concerning system reliability and performance. This information holds the potential to offer critical insights into system operations, as well as solutions for predicting and mitigating contingencies to prevent cascading outages. Despite the immense power of machine learning tools, system operators, planners, and utilities often exhibit hesitancy in fully embracing AI-enabled system operations and planning. This cautious approach persists, even as numerous diverse applications of machine learning continue to emerge in the realm of power systems. In this chapter, our focus will delve deep into ML and AI applications tailored for power systems. These applications aim to furnish system operators with enhanced situational awareness and augment their decision-making capabilities, especially during challenging operating conditions. Specific areas of interest encompass root cause analyses of electricity market datasets and the strategic selection of representative samples from vast power system databases for training ML/AI models. Finally, the chapter will conclude with a short discussion on the future of ML/AI in power systems and possible directions that the industry is moving towards.

power system applications, machine learning (ML), ↗

NASA NTRS2000

Modeling the Fault Tolerant Capability of a Flight Control System: An Exercise in SCR Specification

In life-critical and mission-critical applications, it is important to make provisions for a wide range of contingencies, by providing means for fault tolerance. In this paper, we discuss the specification of a flight control system that is fault tolerant with respect to sensor faults. Redundancy is provided by analytical relations that hold between sensor readings; depending on the conditions, this redundancy can be used to detect, identify and accommodate sensor faults.

Alexander, Chris↗

NASA NTRS2002

Development of a Two-Wheel Contingency Mode for the MAP Spacecraft

In the event of a failure of one of MAP's three reaction wheel assemblies (RWAs), it is not possible to achieve three-axis, full-state attitude control using the remaining two wheels. Hence, two of the attitude control algorithms implemented on the MAP spacecraft will no longer be usable in their current forms: Inertial Mode, used for slewing to and holding inertial attitudes, and Observing Mode, which implements the nominal dual-spin science mode. This paper describes the effort to create a complete strategy for using software algorithms to cope with a RWA failure. The discussion of the design process will be divided into three main subtopics: performing orbit maneuvers to reach and maintain an orbit about the second Earth-Sun libration point in the event of a RWA failure, completing the mission using a momentum-bias two-wheel science mode, and developing a new thruster-based mode for adjusting the inertially fixed momentum bias. In this summary, the philosophies used in designing these changes is shown; the full paper will supplement these with algorithm descriptions and testing results.

Starin, Scott R.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Tell Me about Your Lemonade Stand

At STARSYS, we execute many Firm Fixed Price (FFP) programs for the development of mechanical systems for spacecraft. Contracting this way pre-suppose that we have the ability to establish and hold scope for a system that has yet to be defined. To do FFP, it is critical that we have program managers who are masters at cost control. Fortunately, we have some "masters" in our company. They just seem to have a knack for driving to a financial target. Doesn't matter if the program has contingency or not. Doesn't seem to matter if they use MS Project, Excel spread-sheets, or the back of an envelope. Doesn't even seem to matter whether the program is set up as a financial challenge or a winner.

Tibbitts, Scott↗

NASA NTRS2008

ISS Contingency Attitude Control Recovery Method for Loss of Automatic Thruster Control

In this paper, the attitude control issues associated with International Space Station (ISS) loss of automatic thruster control capability are discussed and methods for attitude control recovery are presented. This scenario was experienced recently during Shuttle mission STS-117 and ISS Stage 13A in June 2007 when the Russian GN&C computers, which command the ISS thrusters, failed. Without automatic propulsive attitude control, the ISS would not be able to regain attitude control after the Orbiter undocked. The core issues associated with recovering long-term attitude control using CMGs are described as well as the systems engineering analysis to identify recovery options. It is shown that the recovery method can be separated into a procedure for rate damping to a safe harbor gravity gradient stable orientation and a capability to maneuver the vehicle to the necessary initial conditions for long term attitude hold. A manual control option using Soyuz and Progress vehicle thrusters is investigated for rate damping and maneuvers. The issues with implementing such an option are presented and the key issue of closed-loop stability is addressed. A new non-propulsive alternative to thruster control, Zero Propellant Maneuver (ZPM) attitude control method is introduced and its rate damping and maneuver performance evaluated. It is shown that ZPM can meet the tight attitude and rate error tolerances needed for long term attitude control. A combination of manual thruster rate damping to a safe harbor attitude followed by a ZPM to Stage long term attitude control orientation was selected by the Anomaly Resolution Team as the alternate attitude control method for such a contingency.

Bedrossian, Nazareth↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assured Contingency Landing Management for Advanced Air Mobility

Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) is quickly developing as a new air transportation system that moves people and packages in the regions previously not / less served by the current aviation systems. Such AAM must operate safely despite the potential to encounter hazards and experience anomalies and failures in-flight. It becomes especially important to have systematic auto-mitigation strategies to perform safe contingency actions in AAM flight operations, as pilots have limited Situational Awareness (SA) and limited time to make prompt decisions when encountering failures/anomalies in high-density low altitude airspace. This paper presents Assured Contingency Landing Management (ACLM) with an online landing strategy selection to decide between the following three options when a contingency landing is required: (1) Return-to-launch landing site, (2) Land immediately at a nearby clear but unprepared site, (3) Land at a prepared landing site from the approximate footprint. Our presented algorithm shows a real-time auto-mitigation loop with multiple threads that run simultaneously to check controllability, reachability, and intermediate decisions to hold/ loiter or continue the flight plan as the landing strategy solution is being computed. Case study simulation is demonstrated with the safety-critical propulsion system and battery system and shows how different failure scenarios impact the landing strategy selection.

Autonomous Mitigation↗

NASA NTRS2011

Docking Offset Between the Space Shuttle and the International Space Station and Resulting Impacts to the Transfer of Attitude Reference and Control

The Space Shuttle does not dock at an exact 90 degrees to the International Space Station (ISS) x-body axis. This offset from 90 degrees, along with error sources within their respective attitude knowledge, causes the two vehicles to never completely agree on their attitude, even though they operate as a single, mated stack while docked. The docking offset can be measured in flight when both vehicles have good attitude reference and is a critical component in calculations to transfer attitude reference from one vehicle to another. This paper will describe how the docking offset and attitude reference errors between both vehicles are measured and how this information would be used to recover Shuttle attitude reference from ISS in the event of multiple failures. During STS-117, ISS on-board Guidance, Navigation and Control (GNC) computers began having problems and after several continuous restarts, the systems failed. The failure took the ability for ISS to maintain attitude knowledge. This paper will also demonstrate how with knowledge of the docking offset, the contingency procedure to recover Shuttle attitude reference from ISS was reversed in order to provide ISS an attitude reference from Shuttle. Finally, this paper will show how knowledge of the docking offset can be used to speed up attitude control handovers from Shuttle to ISS momentum management. By taking into account the docking offset, Shuttle can be commanded to hold a more precise attitude which better agrees with the ISS commanded attitude such that start up transients with the ISS momentum management controllers are reduced. By reducing start-up transients, attitude control can be transferred from Shuttle to ISS without the use of ISS thrusters saving precious on-board propellant, crew time and minimizing loads placed upon the mated stack.

Helms, W. Jason↗

DOE OSTI2025

Temperature and Water Levels Collectively Regulate Methane Emissions From Subtropical Freshwater Wetlands

Abstract Wetlands are the largest and most climate‐sensitive natural sources of methane. Accurately estimating wetland methane emissions involves reconciling inversion (“top‐down”) and process‐based (“bottom‐up”) models within the global methane budget. However, estimates from these two model types are inherently interdependent and often reveal substantial discrepancies. To enhance the reliability of both approaches, we need a comprehensive understanding of wetland methane emissions and an independent high‐resolution long‐term flux data set. Here, we employed a data‐driven random forest approach to identify key variables influencing methane emissions from subtropical freshwater wetlands in the Southeastern United States. The model‐estimated monthly mean methane fluxes fit well with measured methane fluxes ( R 2 = 0.67) at four representative FLUXNET‐CH4 wetland sites across the region. Variable importance analysis highlighted the sensitivity of subtropical freshwater wetland methane emissions to variations in both temperature and water levels. High temperatures facilitate methanogenesis by enhancing microbial activities, while elevated water levels maintain anaerobic conditions necessary for methane production. Notably, the response of methane emissions to water level fluctuations is contingent on temperature conditions, and vice versa. Moreover, we constructed the first high‐spatial‐resolution (∼1 km × 1 km) and long‐term (1982–2010) gridded regional wetland methane flux product for the Southeastern United States, estimating annual methane emissions from subtropical freshwater wetlands in the region at 4.93 ± 0.11 Tg CH 4 yr −1 for 1982–2010. This new benchmark product holds promise for validating and parameterizing uncertain wetland methane emission processes in bottom‐up models and provides improved prior information for top‐down models.

He, Keqi [Earth and Climate Sciences Nicholas Scho↗

NASA NTRS2017

SPHERES and Astrobee: Space Station Robotic Free Flyers

Free-flying space robots can be used when humans are present to off-load routine work, to increase astronaut productivity, and to handle contingencies. The International Space Station (ISS), for example, is a continuously manned orbital laboratory the size of a large house, which contains many thousands of inventory items and hundreds of diverse payloads and experiments - all of which have to be managed by 6 person crew. To help with this, NASA is developing and testing robotic free-flyers on the ISS. SPHERES (Synchronized Position Hold, Engage, Reorient, Experimental Satellites) is an ISS facility with three nano-satellites designed to research estimation, control, and autonomy algorithms. SPHERES are volleyball-sized, have their own power, propulsion and navigation systems, and work on the ISS under astronaut supervision. For more than 10 years, NASA has made SPHERES available to other U.S. government agencies, schools, commercial companies and students as a platform for science, technology development, and education. SPHERES will soon be succeeded by the new Astrobee free-flying robot. Astrobee builds on the success of SPHERES, but in addition to research, the robot will also be used for housekeeping and monitoring duties without astronaut supervision. Astrobee makes extensive use of open-source (the complete software stack is available on GitHub) and is scheduled to be installed on the ISS in late Spring 2018.

Benavides, Jose V.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Large Engine Technology (LET) Short Haul Civil Tiltrotor Contingency Power Materials Knowledge and Lifing Methodologies

This report documents the results of an experimental program conducted on two advanced metallic alloy systems (Rene' 142 directionally solidified alloy (DS) and Rene' N6 single crystal alloy) and the characterization of two distinct internal state variable inelastic constitutive models. The long term objective of the study was to develop a computational life prediction methodology that can integrate the obtained material data. A specialized test matrix for characterizing advanced unified viscoplastic models was specified and conducted. This matrix included strain controlled tensile tests with intermittent relaxtion test with 2 hr hold times, constant stress creep tests, stepped creep tests, mixed creep and plasticity tests, cyclic temperature creep tests and tests in which temperature overloads were present to simulate actual operation conditions for validation of the models. The selected internal state variable models where shown to be capable of representing the material behavior exhibited by the experimental results; however the program ended prior to final validation of the models.

Spring, Samuel D.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Towards a Universal Biology: Is the Origin and Evolution of Life Predictable?

The origin and evolution of life seems an unpredictable oddity, based on the quirks of contingency. Celebrated by the late Stephen Jay Gould in several books, "evolution by contingency" has all the adventure of a thriller, but lacks the predictive power of the physical sciences. Not necessarily so, replied Simon Conway Morris, for convergence reassures us that certain evolutionary responses are replicable. The outcome of this debate is critical to Astrobiology. How can we understand where we came from on Earth without prophesy? Further, we cannot design a rational strategy for the search for life elsewhere - or to understand what the future will hold for life on Earth and beyond - without extrapolating from pre-biotic chemistry and evolution. There are several indirect approaches to understanding, and thus describing, what life must be. These include philosophical approaches to defining life (is there even a satisfactory definition of life?), using what we know of physics, chemistry and life to imagine alternate scenarios, using different approaches that life takes as pseudoreplicates (e.g., ribosomal vs non-ribosomal protein synthesis), and experimental approaches to understand the art of the possible. Given that: (1) Life is a process based on physical components rather than simply an object; (2). Life is likely based on organic carbon and needs a solvent for chemistry, most likely water, and (3) Looking for convergence in terrestrial evolution we can predict certain tendencies, if not quite "laws", that provide predictive power. Biological history must obey the laws of physics and chemistry, the principles of natural selection, the constraints of an evolutionary past, genetics, and developmental biology. This amalgam creates a surprising amount of predictive power in the broad outline. Critical is the apparent prevalence of organic chemistry, and uniformity in the universe of the laws of chemistry and physics. Instructive is the widespread occurrence of convergent or parallel evolution, which suggests that under certain conditions similar solutions are arrived at independently.

Universal biology; life everywhere↗

NASA NTRS1989

Gravity and animal embryos

Out of more than 4,500 rat hours in space there was only one experimental attempt (Cosmos 1129) at mating with an apparent absence of fertilization, implantation and subsequent development to term and partuition. Portions of this process were successfully flown, however, including the major portion of organogenesis in the rat (Cosmos 1524). These observations show that the cellular and molecular events underlying morphogenesis and differentiation in a small mammal can proceed normally in-utero under microgravity and other conditions encountered during short-duration flight. However, it is not known whether this situation will hold for larger mammals over several generations during extended missions that venture outside of near Earth. Furthermore, it is not understood why the previous attempt at obtaining copulation, fertilization and implantation in orbit failed but may be related to limitations of the rat habitat for meeting the preconditions for reproductive behavior. With respect to mammalian development it is important to appreciate that fertilization and development occur internally within the female and take a long time to complete and their success will, therefore, be contingent upon the maternal response to the space environment. One process central to development (the establishment of cell lines) is initiated prior to implantation by environmental asymmetries preceived by progenitor cells. These asymmetries appear to result from the formation of asymmetric cell-cell contacts and the concommitant development of an electrical axis across the progenitor cells. Other asymmetries were also documented. It is not known whether any of the known asymmetries perceived by progenitor cells are influenced by gravity vectors and/or by the maternal response to microgravity and other conditions encountered in space.

Wiley, Lynn M.↗