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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Simple Acceptance Decisions and Acceptance Risk

Acceptance risk may be estimated using cumulative probability distribution functions applied to populations of measurands and test measurement values. “Simple acceptance” is a decision rule that sets the acceptance range of a test result equal to the tolerance range specification. While acceptance risk is comprised of both consumer risk and producer risk, this paper compares the effects of simple acceptance decision rules and guardbanding decision rules on consumer risk. Consumer risk is also known as the probability of false acceptance. The terms describe the risk of accepting test results as passing when the actual values exceed specification limits. False acceptance is only possible when the true value of a measurand is out of tolerance and the test result indicates that the measurand is within tolerance. Metrologists generally have some information about the test uncertainty regarding a specific acceptance test result. Along with a general lack of knowledge regarding the measurand population parameters, the complicated interplay between risk, dispersion, and central values generally prevents calibration laboratories from fully characterizing acceptance probabilities. Organizations that model the measurand populations can reduce consumer risk by avoiding certification of items whose measurand populations are not well centered. The models in this paper present a recurring trend: guardbanding reduces nonnegligible risks of false acceptance when compared to simple acceptance. However, guardbanding is not the most effective means of acceptance risk mitigation. Systematic characterization of measurand populations can provide the information a calibration laboratory needs to reliably control acceptance risk.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dataset for: Price Controls for Scarcity Events in Real-Time and Transactive Energy Systems

Real time pricing (RTP) is often promoted as a mechanism to improve the economic efficiency of the electricity system. However, many regulators have been hesitant to adopt RTP due to concerns about exposing customers to extreme price swings. To balance these concerns, this paper proposes a methodology for establishing price controls, based on the supply of demand-side flexibility in the system. As an illustrative example, we measure price responsiveness using an agent-based simulation model that is representative of the ERCOT market. The model is composed of a distribution feeder that has 250 customers with active agents controlling their HVAC systems in response to the historical ERCOT RTP with an artificially added high-price event. These agents are subjected to increasing electricity prices during the event, which we then use to create a supply curve for demand-side resources in our modeled scarcity event. We set potential price caps at points on the supply curve where customers’ have exhausted their flexible capacity. Using historical prices, we examine the systemic costs of these price caps, and present regulatory options for recouping them. Utilities and regulators interested in limiting consumer risk from dynamic pricing can utilize these methods to develop rate structures and encourage conservation. The attached data upload allows for the duplication or modification of the analysis performed in this study.

Kerby, Jessica R↗
DOE OSTI2021

A note on minimizing time assurance tests for repairable systems

We consider assurance testing for repairable systems when supplementary information is available in addition to the data collected in the assurance test. Here, the supplementary information is incorporated using a Bayesian inferential framework. Here we consider assurance testing for a homogeneous Poisson process. In this note we consider an alternative criterion that minimizes the test time while ensuring that the requirements on the producer's and consumer's risks are met. We illustrate the use of this alternative criterion with an example.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Long-Term Impacts of Constrained Transmission Deployment on the Cost-Reliability Tradeoff

Traditional Resource Adequacy (RA) frameworks in the U.S. undervalue the contributions of inter-regional transmission to resource adequacy during stress periods, focusing on the availability of nameplate capacity instead. However, availability of nameplate capacity does not always translate into electricity delivery, especially during tail events. Moreover, the rapid deployment of energy-limited resources and increasing electricity demand challenge existing resource adequacy frameworks and couple regional electricity demand and availability of supply via transmission. We propose a two-stage framework that goes beyond the existing capacity-centered approaches to reveal the RA contributions of transmission. In the first stage we introduce a multi-objective optimization framework to quantify the merits of transmission expansion via Pareto Frontiers under alternative futures of no transmission investment, primary energy resources availability and demand growth. The second stage focuses on tail events and leverages the results of the first stage to characterize the risk profile of regional consumers across the U.S. under the alternative energy futures. We find that no new transmission can lead to a more expensive and less reliable national grid across scenarios, however, the impact on regional RA can vary. The probabilistic analysis reveals that transmission investments can alleviate the tail risk of consumers, however, the availability of fuel resources does not always alleviate regional tail risks. Our findings inform policymakers and utilities on the prioritization of transmission investments to mitigate the risk of widespread outages, also for tail events, and ensure reliable and affordable electricity delivery to all.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spinning the Facts against Genetically Engineered Foods?

A signaling game is developed in order to derive the equilibrium conditions under which special interest groups (SIGs) involved in the controversial debate over genetically engineered (GE) foods have the incentive to truthfully reveal their information or spin facts regarding the health impact of GE foods. Consumers can choose to inspect information provided by SIGs at a cost. The risk of spinning facts is much higher for pro-GE groups, because if it turns out that a certain GE food is unsafe, the penalty will be severe. However, anti-GE groups can still spin facts at low risk even if consumers choose to inspect. This helps explain why some pro-GE groups, particularly the biotech industry, tend to remain silent. Revealing information regarding the safety of GE foods could be counterproductive given pre-existing public skepticism. Consumers may not make “better” decisions with more information provided because more information increases their inspection costs. When it is costlier for consumers to inspect, it is more likely that anti-GE groups will continue to spin facts about the negative health impact of GE foods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Potential impacts of Fukushima nuclear wastewater discharge on nutrient supply and greenhouse gas emissions of food systems

Seafood plays a critical role in promoting a nutritious and climate-friendly food system but faces challenges from marine contamination that pose food safety risks. Here, to address these challenges, we developed a Marine Pollution-induced Food System Risk Assessment and Response (MP-FSRAR) model to assess the impact of consumer perceptions of marine pollution risk events on nutrient supply and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Applying this model to the proposed Fukushima Nuclear Wastewater Discharge (FNWD) into the Pacific Ocean, we identified the potential variation in nutrient supply and GHG emissions resulting from changes in Chinese consumers' willingness to consume seafood under 12 scenarios. Our analysis revealed nutrient supply gaps in daily protein, minerals, vitamins, and fatty acids, ranging from 1.5 to 2.7 g/person, 2.5–4.5 mg/person, 5.6–10.3 mcg/person, and 0.08–0.14 g/person, respectively. Closing the protein gap in China would require an additional 3.2–15.8 billion kg yr -1 protein-rich foods, including aquatic, livestock, dairy, and pulses. Additional food supply would increase extra GHG emissions by 1–79 billion kg CO 2 e yr -1 , resulting in potential GHG emissions being transmitted to other countries through the trade chain. Furthermore, we found that the livestock-based food substitution pathway had 40 times higher GHG emissions than the plant-based one. Our MP-FSRAR model provides global stakeholders with new perspectives on the potential consequences of consumer perceptions of marine pollution risks and offers valuable insights for developing countermeasures to build a more resilient and low-carbon food system.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Altering the localization and toxicity of arsenic in rice grain

Previous work has shown that inorganic As localizes in rice bran whereas DMA localizes in the endosperm, but less is known about co-localization of As and S species and how they are affected by growing conditions. We used high-resolution synchrotron X-ray fluorescence imaging to image As and S species in rice grain from plants grown to maturity in soil (field and pot) and hydroponically (DMA or arsenite dosed) at field-relevant As concentrations. In hydroponics, arsenite was localized in the ovular vascular trace (OVT) and the bran while DMA permeated the endosperm and was absent from the OVT in all grains analyzed, and As species had no affect on S species. In pot studies, soil amended with Si-rich rice husk with higher DMA shifted grain As into the endosperm for both japonica and indica ecotypes. In field-grown rice from low-As soil, As localized in the OVT as arsenite glutathione, arsenite, and DMA. Results support a circumferential model of grain filling for arsenite and DMA and show Si-rich soil amendments alter grain As localization, potentially lessening risk to rice consumers.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Consumer safety-oriented scheduling of rotating power outages during heat waves

Extreme heat events have widespread effects on power systems, reducing available generation capacity, limiting transmission capabilities, and causing unusual demand patterns on the consumer side. As these combined effects expose bulk transmission systems to potential large-scale blackouts, utilities may be required to schedule and apply rotating outages, by temporarily and alternately disconnecting distribution substations to reduce overload. However, utilities lack mechanisms to inform these events, exacerbating the negative effects of heat waves on affected communities. This paper introduces a novel framework for scheduling rotating outages during heat waves while considering impacts on consumers’ safety. Instead of random sequential load shedding, we propose a methodology to rotate power outages considering a metric that quantifies the indoor overheating risk of groups of consumers during a power outage. The overheating risk is derived from a detailed building simulation using CityBES, where the buildings are modeled based on available data—use type, year built, floor area, number of stories, location—while presence of air conditioning and occupancy are calibrated from smart meter data. Based on the metric, an algorithm to schedule the rotating outages is applied to prioritize feeders for disconnection at each hour according to their overheating risk to meet a utility load reduction target. Applied to two substations and seven feeders in the Portland General Electric territory, the results show that this approach effectively leads to the lowest overheating risk during the resulting outage schedules, with an average 10.1% lower overheating compared to uninformed schedules.

Building thermal simulation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Rinse-Free, Sodium-Efficient Synthesis of O3-Type Layered Oxide Materials Enabled by Acetate Precursors

Sodium-ion batteries (SIBs) are a sustainable alternative to lithium-ion systems for global electrification, with O3-type layered oxide cathodes offering high specific capacity and feasibility of scalable synthesis. Industrial co-precipitation synthesis of these cathodes typically uses transition metal sulfates, requiring extensive water rinsing to remove Na 2 SO 4 impurities, a process that consumes significant water and risks residual inactive phases if incomplete. Here, this work introduces a rinse-free, resource-efficient approach using metal acetate precursors. Residual sodium acetate in non-rinsed precursors decomposes during sintering to generate Na 2 CO 3 in situ, partially substituting an external sodium resource (e.g., NaOH and Na 2 CO 3 ) and reducing its consumption by ∼18–20%. Phase-pure O3-Na 1.0 Ni 1/3 Fe 1/3 Mn 1/3 O 2 (NFM111) cathodes synthesized via this method exhibit microstructure and electrochemical performance comparable to rinsed sulfate-derived counterparts, with initial capacities of 141 mAh g −1 at C/20 (7.5 mA g −1 ). By eliminating rinsing and minimizing sodium reagent use, this acetate-based route enhances sustainability and scalability of layered oxide production for SIBs.

acetate vs. sulfate↗
DOE OSTI2021

Demand Shocks and Supply Chain Resilience: An Agent Based Modelling Approach and Application to the Potato Supply Chain

The food supply chain has experienced major disruptions from both demand and supply sides during the COVID-19 pandemic. While some consequences such as food waste are directly caused by the disruption due to supply chain inefficiency, others are indirectly caused by a change in consumer’s preferences. As a result, evaluating food supply chain resilience is a difficult task. With an attempt to understand impacts of demand on the food supply chain, we developed an agent-based model based on the case of Idaho’s potato supply chain. Results showed that not only the magnitude but also the timing of the demand shock will have different impacts on various stakeholders of the supply chain. Our contribution to the literature is twofold. First, the model helps explain why food waste and shortages may occur with dramatic shifts in consumer demand. Second, this paper provides a new angle on evaluating the various mitigation strategies and policy responses to disruptions beyond COVID-19.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automated Waterbox Inspection for Nuclear Power Plants Using Computer Vision - Based Change Detection

Nuclear power plant waterboxes require regular inspection for leaks, missing components, and structural damage during maintenance outages. Traditional manual inspection is time-consuming and poses safety risks from confined space entry. We developed an automated computer vision system for drone-based waterbox inspection in partnership with Florida Light and Power. Our approach uses feature detection and matching to identify critical changes between baseline and current inspection images, automatically flagging additions (leaks/debris), removals (missing plugs), and translations (displaced components) while compensating for drone movement and environmental variations. We systematically evaluated six feature matching methods, from classical approaches (SIFT+BF) to state-of-the-art neural networks (SuperPoint+SuperGlue), using both standard benchmarks (HPatches) and waterbox-specific validation with real-world augmentations. SuperPoint+SuperGlue achieved superior performance with 7.82 pixels RMSE and 100% success rate—2.8x better accuracy than our baseline. While the pre-trained model has commercial licensing restrictions for nuclear deployment, our findings validate this architecture for custom training. We implemented a real-time GUI demonstrating the SIFT+BF approach for immediate deployment, processing drone feeds at 30 FPS with color-coded change visualization. Future work includes training a custom SuperPoint+SuperGlue model on waterbox data and integrating Vision-Language Models for automated reporting and maintenance guidance.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Application of Banking Scoring and Rating for Coherent Risk Measures in Electricity Systems ABSCORES

This project developed a framework for asset and system risk management that can be incorporated into current electricity system operations to improve economic efficiency and establish an Electric Assets Risk Bureau. We leveraged scoring and ratings from banking and financial institutions alongside current optimization methods in dispatching power systems to help system operators and electricity markets schedule resources. This approach is based on the observation that there are major discrepancies between the power scheduled by a system operator and the actual power generated/consumed. These discrepancies—exacerbated by unplanned contingencies (e.g., natural disasters)—are caused by multiple factors, including the different financial, environmental and risk preferences of power producers, consumers, and aggregators. We developed a framework that counteracts two failures in electricity system operations: imperfect information and missing markets for products. The technical approach included five tasks. Tasks 1 and 2 supported the development of risk scores at the asset level with historical data collected for this project. Tasks 3, 4, and 5 incorporated scoring into decision-making at the system level. The proposed effort achieved PERFORM's Program Objectives because the proposed outputs and algorithms do not exist in the electricity industry and are an innovative approach to managing risk. Since the acknowledged need to better assess and act upon risk profiles for grid assets has not been met by the industry, this project will also impact ARPA-E's Mission Areas, including improving energy efficiency and giving the U.S. a technological lead in advanced energy technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

System-Level Integration of Modular Language Models for Real-Time Risk Assessment in Third-Party Risk Management Systems

Large enterprises typically rely on dedicated teams to govern and implement security measures throughout their supply chains, ensuring compliance with enterprise security procedures. There is a significant reliance on Third-Party Risk Management (TPRM) platforms, which often require complete, highly structured information from potential vendors. The review and compliance assurance processes are time- and labor intensive, often requiring several rounds of review between the supply chain security risk management teams, business users, and potential vendors, leading to delays in the supply chain processing and consumer experience. Significant challenges in the risk management paradigm include handling unstructured data in various formats and providing real-time feedback to users to reduce the required review time. This paper presents a novel solution to these challenges. A modular multi-step system architecture is proposed using advances in language processing, specifically for unstructured responses and provides real-time feedback (i.e., 3 seconds) so that users can improve their responses before the TPSRM team review. This novel system architecture will increase information accuracy and significantly reduce time and labor during the review process.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Demand response event simulator and risk-aware bidding tool for industrial customers

Incentive Based Demand Response (IBDR) program participation delivers financial benefits to the consumers and resiliency benefits to the electricity grid. Effectively participating in these programs as an industrial consumer requires bidding strategies that balance financial risk with operational constraints. Existing bidding tools tend not to fully incorporate stochastic IBDR event modeling, program specific baseline and payment/penalty calculations, or demand reduction process control schemes that account for the cascading impacts of shutdown in complex facilities. Here, this work presents an IBDR event simulator and risk-aware bidding framework tool integrating three key components: a flexible, parameterized demand response event generator that rigorously accounts for program structures and stochasticity, a demand response operational simulation model that generates explicit control strategies for load reduction, and a Monte Carlo simulator to evaluate financial risk for varied capacity bids. A case study at a wastewater treatment plant participating in PG&E's Capacity Bidding Program demonstrates the framework's utility. In the peak capacity price month of August, optimal bidding by the wastewater treatment plant nets a mean IBDR benefit of $101,000 (67% of the August electricity bill) with 0.4% probability of a financial loss. This framework enables industrial operators to make informed bidding decisions, negotiate better program terms with demand response load aggregators, and analyze energy flexibility investments at their facilities. Ultimately, this work reduces participation barriers in IBDR programs and supports the broader goal of enhancing grid reliability and renewable energy integration.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Freeze It or Leave It? Evaluating the Role of Cryo-Electron Microscopy in Battery Research

Cryogenic electron microscopy (cryo-EM) continues to gain prominence in materials science, particularly in battery research where it has enabled high-resolution, multimodal characterization of electrode materials and interfaces that otherwise degrade quickly under electron beam irradiation. But as anyone who has attempted cryo-EM techniques knows, freezing comes at a cost; cryo-EM experiments are time-consuming, highly sensitive, and carry an increased risk of artifacts due to issues such as frost contamination. Thus, when planning new characterization of battery materials or other beam-sensitive samples, it is critical to consider whether (and which) cryo-EM techniques are appropriate, based on study goals and an understanding of electron beam-sample interactions. Here we review such considerations for battery materials to elucidate the questions of when, why, and how to freeze to achieve high-quality characterization.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Utility Regulation Through Legislation: A Cautionary Tale for Legislators, Regulators, Stakeholders, and Utilities

State legislatures in the U.S. are becoming increasingly involved in utility regulation. While state utility legislation can expand regulator authority, for example in the case of renewable energy or energy efficiency standard administration, it can also reduce it. Given the challenging nature of for-profit monopoly regulation, state utility legislation often reduces regulator authority unintentionally. This editorial begins with an examination of the outcomes of state legislation related to baseload generation in the U.S. and the resulting impacts to customers, shareholders, and state economies. The record indicates that utility regulation through state legislation has caused significant economic harm, generally by encouraging for-profit utilities to make riskier investments. A description of more recent state legislation involving distribution grids is presented, along with evidence that increases in grid investment encouraged by state legislation has not improved the reliability of U.S. for-profit utilities. The authors claim that features common to state utility legislation, particularly the requirement that utilities provide investment plans to regulators in advance, practically eliminates cost disallowance risk. This, in turn, reduces regulator authority despite legislative provisions intended to protect consumers. The authors hypothesize that the practical elimination of cost disallowance risk, combined with information and expertise asymmetry among regulators and stakeholders, encourages for-profit monopoly utilities to make grid investments that are not cost effective. The editorial concludes that legislators should avoid utility regulation through legislation, thereby preserving regulator authority, whenever possible. The authors also present their fifth annual Customer Value Ranking of U.S. investor-owned electric utilities. The ranking represents a comparison of the benefits utilities deliver to customers (measured by reliability performance and customer satisfaction) to the costs customers pay (measured by O&M and capital spending per customer).

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗
DOE OSTI2022

H-Canyon Jumper Gasket Sealing Evaluation

H-Canyon Documented Safety Analysis approved December 2019 credits the leak integrity of H-Canyon (HCA) process tanks, piping, and jumpers in preventing the release of radioactive material in a post seismic environment. Demonstration of leak tightness capability for this equipment was achieved through substantial analytical effort. However, one potential weak point that affects leak integrity exists at the gasketed joint between Hanford Connectors (HC) and nozzles. Review of the HCA Crane Log over a three-year period indicates the HCs periodically leak. Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) was requested to perform gasket compression tests that evaluate gasket relaxation characteristics, i.e., creep, and provide improvements to the HC installation process that can reduce or eliminate the frequency of leaks at HCs. A HC torque value of 312 ft-lbf is the target value used because it is the minimum torque value, with 95% confidence, when an unlubricated HC is impacted for standard sealing period of 9 seconds. In the HCA pipe-jumper connections are installed remotely by using HCs. HCs inherently add to the uncertainty of a gasketed joint because a calibrated torque value cannot be applied. The gasket material is a special material made of asbestos-fiber impregnated with Teflon. This material has been used for decades and generally performs well but does leak intermittently as gaskets creep and preloaded torque is lost. Gasket types are either snap-ring (SR) or lampshade (LS). Both gasket types cover the same seating area. The SR gasket is designed to remain with the jumper when the jumper is removed leaving the nozzle faces clean of any debris. SR gaskets are initially installed when the jumper is fabricated. Changing gaskets is time consuming and the radioactive environment presents risks to personnel. When jumpers are removed LS gaskets could be used to better seal the connection to reduce down time and ALARA concerns. That is, an LS gasket would be remotely positioned over the nozzle and the HC reinstalled. Testing also included two situations not typical of plant operation. One situation was the use of the non-standard double-layered gaskets (DG), and the other situation was the use of a LS without removal of the installed SR gasket. The DG was used when the supply of LS gaskets ended, so that testing could continue. It was of interest to demonstrate this gasket’s creep response because the DG, which was two gaskets glued together, was thicker than the LS gasket and the thicker material was expected to elicit a greater creep characteristics. The second situation of using two gaskets together by installing an LS gasket without removing the installed gasket is not allowed by the ASME Codes. However, by demonstrating the creep history of such a gasket arrangement it could be considered as an option that could possibly seal a connection while significantly reducing operational down time and personnel risk. Forty tests were conducted, and the overall results demonstrate the initial applied force and how the gasket changes with time. The change in sealing force, in terms of torque, was then measured to obtain a force history as the gaskets creep. This report documents the results of those tests as well as the method used to perform the tests.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Overview and Commentary on Applying the Coordinated Vulnerability Disclosure Process to Photovoltaic System Devices

The rapid expansion of photovoltaic (PV) systems, particularly inverters, has introduced new cybersecurity challenges that threaten both local operations as well as the broader electrical grid’s stability. PV inverters, integrated into critical energy infrastructure are potential targets for cyber attacks due to vulnerabilities in firmware, remote access systems, and communication protocols. The Coordinated Vulnerability Disclosure (CVD) process, as defined by the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), provides a framework for identifying, reporting, and addressing these vulnerabilities in a transparent and collaborative manner. This report outlines the CVD process as it applies to PV systems, detailing the roles of key stakeholders, such as manufacturers, grid operators, and security researchers. The report also highlights specific challenges in managing vulnerabilities for new and legacy PV systems, which includes those introduced by insecure communications and third-party supply chain components. By adhering to the CVD process, the PV industry can mitigate cybersecurity risks, ensure regulatory compliance, and maintain consumer trust, while safeguarding the operational resilience of the energy grid. Ultimately, the effective coordination of vulnerability management is crucial for securing the future of PV systems within the critical electric grid infrastructure landscape.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗