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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Simple Acceptance Decisions and Acceptance Risk

Acceptance risk may be estimated using cumulative probability distribution functions applied to populations of measurands and test measurement values. “Simple acceptance” is a decision rule that sets the acceptance range of a test result equal to the tolerance range specification. While acceptance risk is comprised of both consumer risk and producer risk, this paper compares the effects of simple acceptance decision rules and guardbanding decision rules on consumer risk. Consumer risk is also known as the probability of false acceptance. The terms describe the risk of accepting test results as passing when the actual values exceed specification limits. False acceptance is only possible when the true value of a measurand is out of tolerance and the test result indicates that the measurand is within tolerance. Metrologists generally have some information about the test uncertainty regarding a specific acceptance test result. Along with a general lack of knowledge regarding the measurand population parameters, the complicated interplay between risk, dispersion, and central values generally prevents calibration laboratories from fully characterizing acceptance probabilities. Organizations that model the measurand populations can reduce consumer risk by avoiding certification of items whose measurand populations are not well centered. The models in this paper present a recurring trend: guardbanding reduces nonnegligible risks of false acceptance when compared to simple acceptance. However, guardbanding is not the most effective means of acceptance risk mitigation. Systematic characterization of measurand populations can provide the information a calibration laboratory needs to reliably control acceptance risk.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2007

Measurement Decision Risk - The Importance of Definitions

One of the more misunderstood areas of metrology is the Test Uncertainty Ratio (TUR) and its cousin, the Test Accuracy Ratio (TAR). There have been many definitions over the years, but why are these definitions important to a discussion on measurement decision risk? The importance lies in the clarity of communication. Problems can immediately arise in the application (or misapplication) of the definition of these terms. In other words, while it is important to understand the definitions, it is more important to understand concepts behind the definitions and to be precise in how they are applied. The objective of any measurement is a decision. Measurement Decision Risk is a way to look at the quality of a measurement and although it is not a new concept, it has generated a lot of attention since its addition as a requirement in the new U.S. National Standard, ANSI/NCSL Z540.3-2006. In addition to Measurement Decision Risk as the prime method of managing measurement risk, Z540.3 has also added, as a fall-back, an explicit definition for TUR. The impact these changes might have on calibration service providers if these requirements are levied on them has become the topic of much discussion and in some cases concern. This paper looks at the concepts behind the definitions and how they relate to Measurement Decision Risk. Using common examples, this paper will also provide a comparison of various elements of risk related to measurement science using the concepts of TAR, TUR, accuracy ratios, and Consumer Risk (False Accept Risk). The goal is to provide a better understanding of their relevance to the measurement decision process.

Mimbs, Scott M.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Measurement Decision Risk - The Importance of Definitions

One of the more misunderstood areas of metrology is the Test Uncertainty Ratio (TUR) and the Test Accuracy Ratio (TAR). There have been many definitions over the years, but why are these definitions important to a discussion on measurement decision risk? The importance lies in the clarity of communication. Problems can immediately arise in the application (or misapplication) of the definition of these terms. In other words, while it is important to understand the definitions, it is more important to understand concepts behind the definitions and to be precise in how they are applied. The objective of any measurement is a decision. Measurement Decision Risk is a way to look at the quality of a measurement, and although it is not a new concept, it has generated a lot of attention since its addition as a requirement in the new U.S. National Standard, ANSIINCSL Z540.3-2006. In addition to Measurement Decision Risk as the prime method of managing measurement risk, Z540.3 has added, as a fall-back, an explicit definition for TUR. The impact these new requirements may have on calibration service providers has become the topic of much discussion and in some cases concern. This paper will look at the concepts behind the definitions and how they relate to Measurement Decision Risk. Using common examples, this paper will also provide a comparison of various elements of risk related to measurement science using the concepts of TAR, TUR, accuracy ratios, and Consumer Risk (False Accept Risk). The goal of this paper is to provide a better understanding of their relevance to the measurement decision process.

Mimbs, Scott M.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Applying Monte Carlo Simulation to Launch Vehicle Design and Requirements Analysis

This Technical Publication (TP) is meant to address a number of topics related to the application of Monte Carlo simulation to launch vehicle design and requirements analysis. Although the focus is on a launch vehicle application, the methods may be applied to other complex systems as well. The TP is organized so that all the important topics are covered in the main text, and detailed derivations are in the appendices. The TP first introduces Monte Carlo simulation and the major topics to be discussed, including discussion of the input distributions for Monte Carlo runs, testing the simulation, how many runs are necessary for verification of requirements, what to do if results are desired for events that happen only rarely, and postprocessing, including analyzing any failed runs, examples of useful output products, and statistical information for generating desired results from the output data. Topics in the appendices include some tables for requirements verification, derivation of the number of runs required and generation of output probabilistic data with consumer risk included, derivation of launch vehicle models to include possible variations of assembled vehicles, minimization of a consumable to achieve a two-dimensional statistical result, recontact probability during staging, ensuring duplicated Monte Carlo random variations, and importance sampling.

Hanson, J. M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dataset for: Price Controls for Scarcity Events in Real-Time and Transactive Energy Systems

Real time pricing (RTP) is often promoted as a mechanism to improve the economic efficiency of the electricity system. However, many regulators have been hesitant to adopt RTP due to concerns about exposing customers to extreme price swings. To balance these concerns, this paper proposes a methodology for establishing price controls, based on the supply of demand-side flexibility in the system. As an illustrative example, we measure price responsiveness using an agent-based simulation model that is representative of the ERCOT market. The model is composed of a distribution feeder that has 250 customers with active agents controlling their HVAC systems in response to the historical ERCOT RTP with an artificially added high-price event. These agents are subjected to increasing electricity prices during the event, which we then use to create a supply curve for demand-side resources in our modeled scarcity event. We set potential price caps at points on the supply curve where customers’ have exhausted their flexible capacity. Using historical prices, we examine the systemic costs of these price caps, and present regulatory options for recouping them. Utilities and regulators interested in limiting consumer risk from dynamic pricing can utilize these methods to develop rate structures and encourage conservation. The attached data upload allows for the duplication or modification of the analysis performed in this study.

Kerby, Jessica R↗
NASA NTRS2010

Applying Monte Carlo Simulation to Launch Vehicle Design and Requirements Verification

This paper is focused on applying Monte Carlo simulation to probabilistic launch vehicle design and requirements verification. The approaches developed in this paper can be applied to other complex design efforts as well. Typically the verification must show that requirement "x" is met for at least "y" % of cases, with, say, 10% consumer risk or 90% confidence. Two particular aspects of making these runs for requirements verification will be explored in this paper. First, there are several types of uncertainties that should be handled in different ways, depending on when they become known (or not). The paper describes how to handle different types of uncertainties and how to develop vehicle models that can be used to examine their characteristics. This includes items that are not known exactly during the design phase but that will be known for each assembled vehicle (can be used to determine the payload capability and overall behavior of that vehicle), other items that become known before or on flight day (can be used for flight day trajectory design and go/no go decision), and items that remain unknown on flight day. Second, this paper explains a method (order statistics) for determining whether certain probabilistic requirements are met or not and enables the user to determine how many Monte Carlo samples are required. Order statistics is not new, but may not be known in general to the GN&C community. The methods also apply to determining the design values of parameters of interest in driving the vehicle design. The paper briefly discusses when it is desirable to fit a distribution to the experimental Monte Carlo results rather than using order statistics.

Hanson, John M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ECLSS Does Not Exist in a Vacuum: Integrated Analysis is Necessary to Inform System Architecture Decisions

Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) architecture selection has profound implications for mission cost and mass extending far beyond the ECLSS itself. Similarly, other mission architecture decisions – particularly involving transportation systems – can influence optimal ECLSS architectures. Loop closure influences requirements for water, oxygen, and other consumables. System maintainability and reliability influences spares mass and risk. System, consumables, and spares mass interact with transportation system architectures and propellant demands and propulsion element sizing. All these interactions with other systems must be considered when evaluating ECLSS options. Analyses that focus only on maximizing ECLSS loop closure – or minimizing ECLSS mass, or minimizing ECLSS life cycle cost – may lead to sub-optimal or even counterproductive system architecture and investment decisions at the mission level. For example, an ECLSS architecture that minimizes ECLSS lifecycle cost but results in excessively high logistics mass could lead to significantly increased transportation system costs or make interplanetary transportation infeasible. Increased loop closure could result in higher development costs and higher mass if system/spares mass increases outweigh consumables reduction. In addition, systems mass and consumables mass are not directly comparable and have different impacts on propellant requirements, as consumables mass changes over the course of the mission. This paper presents an integrated analysis examining the overall impact of different ECLSS and transportation architectures on mass for a crewed Mars mission, including the habitat and transportation systems as well as consumables, spares, and propellant. Key observations are discussed, along with opportunities for further sensitivity analysis and model development. Overall, ECLSS development activities must consider their impacts at the mission level, as part of an integrated system, rather than in isolation.

Systems Analysis↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Integrated Trajectory, Habitat, and Logistics Analysis and Trade Study for Human Mars Missions

Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) architecture selection has profound implications for mission cost and mass extending far beyond the ECLSS itself. Similarly, other mission architecture decisions – particularly involving transportation systems – can influence optimal ECLSS architectures. Loop closure influences requirements for water, oxygen, and other consumables. System maintainability and reliability influences spares mass and risk. System, consumables, and spares mass interact with transportation system architectures and propellant demands and propulsion element sizing. All these interactions with other systems must be considered when evaluating ECLSS options. Analyses that focus only on maximizing ECLSS loop closure – or minimizing ECLSS mass, or minimizing ECLSS life cycle cost – may lead to sub-optimal or even counterproductive system architecture and investment decisions at the mission level. For example, an ECLSS architecture that minimizes ECLSS life cycle cost but results in excessively high logistics mass could lead to significantly increased transportation system costs or make interplanetary transportation infeasible. Increased loop closure could result in higher development costs and higher mass if system/spares mass increases outweigh consumables reduction. In addition, systems mass and consumables mass are not directly comparable and have different impacts on propellant requirements, as consumables mass changes over the course of the mission. This paper presents an integrated analysis examining the overall impact of different ECLSS and transportation architectures on mass for a crewed Mars mission, including the habitat and transportation systems as well as consumables, spares, and propellant. Key observations are discussed, along with opportunities for further sensitivity analysis and model development. Overall, ECLSS development activities must consider their impacts at the mission level, as part of an integrated system, rather than in isolation.

Mars↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Integrated Trajectory, Habitat, and Logistics Analysis and Trade Study for Human Mars Missions

Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) architecture selection has profound implications for mission cost and mass extending far beyond the ECLSS itself. Similarly, other mission architecture decisions – particularly involving transportation systems – can influence optimal ECLSS architectures. Loop closure influences requirements for water, oxygen, and other consumables. System maintainability and reliability influences spares mass and risk. System, consumables, and spares mass interact with transportation system architectures, including propellant demands and propulsion element sizing. All these interactions with other systems must be considered when evaluating ECLSS options. Analyses that focus only on maximizing ECLSS loop closure – or minimizing ECLSS mass, or minimizing ECLSS life cycle cost – may lead to sub-optimal or even counterproductive system architecture and investment decisions at the mission level. For example, an ECLSS architecture that minimizes ECLSS life cycle cost but results in excessively high logistics mass could lead to significantly increased transportation system costs or make interplanetary transportation infeasible. Increased loop closure could result in higher development costs and higher mass if system/spares mass increases outweigh consumables reduction. In addition, systems mass and consumables mass are not directly comparable and have different impacts on propellant requirements, as consumables mass changes over the course of the mission. This paper presents an integrated analysis examining the overall impact of different ECLSS and transportation architectures on Earth departure mass for a crewed Mars mission, including the habitat and transportation systems as well as consumables, spares, and propellant. Key observations are discussed, along with opportunities for further sensitivity analysis and model development. Overall, ECLSS development activities must consider their impacts at the mission level, as part of an integrated system, rather than in isolation.

Mars↗
DOE OSTI2021

A note on minimizing time assurance tests for repairable systems

We consider assurance testing for repairable systems when supplementary information is available in addition to the data collected in the assurance test. Here, the supplementary information is incorporated using a Bayesian inferential framework. Here we consider assurance testing for a homogeneous Poisson process. In this note we consider an alternative criterion that minimizes the test time while ensuring that the requirements on the producer's and consumer's risks are met. We illustrate the use of this alternative criterion with an example.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1994

HYPERSAMP

Hypergeometric Attribute Sampling System Based on Risk and Fraction Defective (HYPERSAMP) computer program demonstrates attribute sampling system developed to determine minimum sample size required for any preselected value for consumer's risk and fraction of nonconforming units. Used in place of MIL-STD-105E sampling plans when minimum sample size desirable, such as when tests are destructive or expensive. Written for IBM PC-compatible computers.

Desalvo, Louis J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Evaluation of an Interferometric Sensor for In-Space Detection of Gas Leaks

Space mission planning often involves long-term storage of volatile liquids or high-pressure gases. These may include cryogenic fuels and oxidizers, high-pressure gases, and life-support-critical consumables. The risk associated with the storage of fluids and gases in space systems has long been an issue and the ability to retain these fluids is often tied to mission success. A leak in the storage or distribution system can cause many different problems, including a simple, but mission endangering, loss of inventory or, in severe cases, unbalanced thrust loads on a flight vehicle. Cryogenic propellants are especially difficult to store, especially over a long duration. The propellant can boil off and be lost through the insulating walls of the tank or simple thermal cycling of the fittings, valves, and propellant feed lines may unseat seals allowing the fluid to escape. Current NASA missions call for long-duration in-space storage of propellants, oxidizers, and life support supplies. Leaks of a scale detectable through a pressure drop in the storage tank are often catastrophic and have long been the focus of ground-based mitigation efforts where redundant systems are often employed. However, there is presently no technology available for detecting and monitoring low-level, but still mission-endangering, gas leaks in space. Standard in-space gas detection methods either have a very limited pressure range over which they operate effectively or are limited to certain gases. Mass spectrometer systems are able to perform the detection tasks, but their size, mass and use of high voltage, which could potentially lead to an arc that ignites a combustible propellent, severely limit their usefulness in a space system. In this paper, we present results from testing of the light-based interferometric gas monitoring and leak detection sensor shown in Fig. 1. The output of the sensor is an interference fringe pattern that is a function of the gas density, and commensurate index of refraction, in the sample region. Changes in the density of gas cause the interference fringes to move across a photodiode detector, providing a temporal history of the leak. The sensor is fiber coupled and constructed from solid optics, allowing for placement almost anywhere on the spacecraft. It is also advantageous in that it consumes very little power and does not introduce an ignition source. Data are presented demonstrating the capability of the sensor to measure density variations in different gas species. In addition, the transient response of the sensor in vacuum is demonstrated. These data extend and improve upon the results previously presented by the authors in Ref. [1].

Polzin, Kurt A.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Lessons learned for composite structures

Lessons learned for composite structures are presented in three technology areas: materials, manufacturing, and design. In addition, future challenges for composite structures are presented. Composite materials have long gestation periods from the developmental stage to fully matured production status. Many examples exist of unsuccessful attempts to accelerate this gestation period. Experience has shown that technology transition of a new material system to fully matured production status is time consuming, involves risk, is expensive and should not be undertaken lightly. The future challenges for composite materials require an intensification of the science based approach to material development, extension of the vendor/customer interaction process to include all engineering disciplines of the end user, reduced material costs because they are a significant factor in overall part cost, and improved batch-to-batch pre-preg physical property control. Historical manufacturing lessons learned are presented using current in-service production structure as examples. Most producibility problems for these structures can be traced to their sequential engineering design. This caused an excessive emphasis on design-to-weight and schedule at the expense of design-to-cost. This resulted in expensive performance originated designs, which required costly tooling and led to non-producible parts. Historically these problems have been allowed to persist throughout the production run. The current/future approach for the production of affordable composite structures mandates concurrent engineering design where equal emphasis is placed on product and process design. Design for simplified assembly is also emphasized, since assembly costs account for a major portion of total airframe costs. The future challenge for composite manufacturing is, therefore, to utilize concurrent engineering in conjunction with automated manufacturing techniques to build affordable composite structures. Composite design experience has shown that significant weight savings have been achieved, outstanding fatigue and corrosion resistance have been demonstrated, and in-service performance has been very successful. Currently no structural design show stoppers exist for composite structures. A major lesson learned is that the full scale static test is the key test for composites, since it is the primary structural 'hot spot' indicator. The major durability issue is supportability of thin skinned structure. Impact damage has been identified as the most significant issue for the damage tolerance control of composite structures. However, delaminations induced during assembly operations have demonstrated a significant nuisance value. The future challenges for composite structures are threefold. Firstly, composite airframe weight fraction should increase to 60 percent. At the same time, the cost of composite structures must be reduced by 50 percent to attain the goal of affordability. To support these challenges it is essential to develop lower cost materials and processes.

Whitehead, R. S.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Journal of Air Transportation, Volume 9, No. 1

The articles in this issue include: 1) Are Four Year Universities Better than Two-Year Colleges at Preparing Students to Pass the FAA Aircraft Mechanic Certification Written Examinations? 2) Assessing Perceived Risk of Consumers in Internet Airline Reservations Services; 3) Perceptions of Communication Training Among Collegiate Flight Educators; 4) Ethics Education in University Aviation Management Programs in the U.S.: Part Three - Qualitative Analysis and Recommendations; 5) Airline Flight Operations Internships Perspectives; 6) Applying Data Mining Techniques to Forecast Number of Airline Passengers in Saudi Arabia (Domestic and International Travels).

Bowen, Brent D.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Endogenous Microbial Survival in Brewed Tea

Loose-leaf bagged tea is a commonly requested beverage item that comprises up to 7% of the microbiological samples from the space food systems. As loose-leaf tea blends often contain herbs and spices that frequently have high microbial loads, they have a high failure rate as defined by the microbiological standards outlined in NASA-STD-3001, which are more stringent than the limits set for industry. Between April 2019 and September 2022, 54.8% of loose-leaf teas submitted for microbiological testing have failed, necessitating the evaluation of a variety of brands and lot numbers of each requested tea type to meet crew preference requests, which are typically specific, resulting in excess labor and material costs to provide a single product for spaceflight consumption. Attempts to identify specific brands or ingredients that are less likely to produce a failure have been unsuccessful, as to date, no trends in those measures have been identified. We have, however, noticed a trend in types of teas (spiced and herbal) which are more likely to fail. Of additional concern, hot water available for brewing tea on ISS is dispensed at a lower temperature than the CDC recommended brewing temperature. In a study we previously reported, we found that that brewing water temperature may not have a significant impact on the number of aerobic bacteria in chamomile tea, as there were no significant differences in the total microbial load between tea brewed with boiling, ISS-like, or room temperature waters. It did appear that ISS temperature water was similarly effective to boiling water against a pathogenic bacterial species. In this study, we aim to assess whether the total number of aerobic bacteria of other high-fail-rate tea types is similarly unaffected when brewing tea in room temperature or boiling water. Data from this study and the previous study, as well as additional analysis of every tea product that has been tested as part of the normal food system since April 2019, will be used to determine the expected typical microbial load for loose-leaf teas, which we will compare to existing industry limits so that we can recommend a new microbiological limit for loose-leaf teas that accurately reflects the true risk of consuming brewed teas in spaceflight.

space flight food↗
DOE OSTI2026

Long-Term Impacts of Constrained Transmission Deployment on the Cost-Reliability Tradeoff

Traditional Resource Adequacy (RA) frameworks in the U.S. undervalue the contributions of inter-regional transmission to resource adequacy during stress periods, focusing on the availability of nameplate capacity instead. However, availability of nameplate capacity does not always translate into electricity delivery, especially during tail events. Moreover, the rapid deployment of energy-limited resources and increasing electricity demand challenge existing resource adequacy frameworks and couple regional electricity demand and availability of supply via transmission. We propose a two-stage framework that goes beyond the existing capacity-centered approaches to reveal the RA contributions of transmission. In the first stage we introduce a multi-objective optimization framework to quantify the merits of transmission expansion via Pareto Frontiers under alternative futures of no transmission investment, primary energy resources availability and demand growth. The second stage focuses on tail events and leverages the results of the first stage to characterize the risk profile of regional consumers across the U.S. under the alternative energy futures. We find that no new transmission can lead to a more expensive and less reliable national grid across scenarios, however, the impact on regional RA can vary. The probabilistic analysis reveals that transmission investments can alleviate the tail risk of consumers, however, the availability of fuel resources does not always alleviate regional tail risks. Our findings inform policymakers and utilities on the prioritization of transmission investments to mitigate the risk of widespread outages, also for tail events, and ensure reliable and affordable electricity delivery to all.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spinning the Facts against Genetically Engineered Foods?

A signaling game is developed in order to derive the equilibrium conditions under which special interest groups (SIGs) involved in the controversial debate over genetically engineered (GE) foods have the incentive to truthfully reveal their information or spin facts regarding the health impact of GE foods. Consumers can choose to inspect information provided by SIGs at a cost. The risk of spinning facts is much higher for pro-GE groups, because if it turns out that a certain GE food is unsafe, the penalty will be severe. However, anti-GE groups can still spin facts at low risk even if consumers choose to inspect. This helps explain why some pro-GE groups, particularly the biotech industry, tend to remain silent. Revealing information regarding the safety of GE foods could be counterproductive given pre-existing public skepticism. Consumers may not make “better” decisions with more information provided because more information increases their inspection costs. When it is costlier for consumers to inspect, it is more likely that anti-GE groups will continue to spin facts about the negative health impact of GE foods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modular Open Systems Approach (MOSA) for a Robust Commercial Lunar Ecosystem

Modular Open Systems Approaches (MOSAs) have been adopted worldwide to solve a myriad of challenges. Open systems by their nature maximize accessibility, reduce barriers to entry, and prevent vendor lock. Similarly, modularity speeds innovation, fosters design re-use, and enables incremental development & growth. Architectures developed using a MOSA synergize the benefits of modularity and open systems to produce better products at lower developmental cost and risk, saving the consumer money while allowing greater developer profit margins. Specific to the challenge of lunar exploration, a MOSA will ensure interoperability among diverse commercial, government, and international partners. Complex spaceflight systems can be assembled, upgraded, and serviced far more easily and with greater commercial involvement with the use of a MOSA. By allowing partners to self-limit their scope to key strengths, they can focus on producing premier components without carrying the high risk and associated cost of auxiliary tasks they don’t specialize in. We survey commercial and Department of Defense (DoD) lessons learned in past decades, discuss DoD robotics’ experience in Iraq and Afghanistan (first without then with MOSAs), and analyze the flourishing commercial ecosystem that has resulted from DoD MOSA adoption. We explore the future of lunar operations to demonstrate the criticality of MOSA adoption in key areas at the right time. Two specific lunar technical fields are studied as examples: Power and In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU). Finally, recognizing that the lunar ISRU campaign will be an eminently collaborative operation requiring seamless partnering among diverse commercial, government, and international partners, a comprehensive technology development ecosystem is explored aimed at enabling ISRU in a way that systems and components are affordable for commercial partners to design, build, and sustain.

Mathew DeMinico↗