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At least 19 records

Uncertainty Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis of Nuclear Construction Cost Reduction Pathways

High construction costs have plagued recent nuclear projects and they hamper the widespread deployment of nuclear technology. The Nuclear Cost Reduction Tool is a plant economic framework that quantifies the impact that various plant design and construction attributes have on construction costs and cost overruns and shows the positive effects of learning over a series of deployments. However, a downside of the current model is that all model outputs and capabilities are deterministic. To provide a more comprehensive view, this study evaluated the impact of model parameter uncertainty through a sensitivity analysis applied to 18 model parameters. This approach quantified the impact of model uncertainty on the output variables of Net Overnight Capital Cost (Net OCC), Construction Duration (CD), and Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). Monte Carlo analysis revealed uncertainty distributions for these variables, showing that absolute uncertainty decreases over a series of deployments. A local sensitivity analysis showed that even small parameter perturbations (5%) can have a significant impact on project execution, highlighting areas that could reduce costs by billions across an order book of plants. The results of this study have improved the understanding of the model and identified the most impactful model parameters and construction attributes.

Levelized Cost of Electricity↗

KSC Construction Cost Index

Kennedy Space Center cost Index aids in conceptual design cost estimates. Report discusses development of KSC Cost Index since January 1974. Index since January 1974. Index provides management, design engineers, and estimators an up-to-data reference for local labor and material process. Also provides mount and rate of change in these costs used to predict future construction costs.

Brown, J. A.↗

Affordable and Scalable Modular Multifamily Housing: A Case Study on Cost, Construction Time Savings, and Waste Reduction in California: Preprint

Modular construction can significantly reduce waste when compared to traditional methods. This case study evaluates cost, construction time, and waste metrics for a 195-unit stick-built project and for a 66-unit modular project both based in Los Angeles, CA. We partner with SoLa Impact (real estate developer) and Model/Z (modular manufacturer) to evaluate the impact of Model/Z's 1-bedroom modular unit which is produced in a 160,000 sq ft local factory in South Los Angeles. We compare them to similar stick-built/site-built multifamily construction by the same developer in Los Angeles. This study finds that modular production reduced construction waste through precise prefabrication, concentrated workforce expertise, and streamlined logistics while cutting transportation needs, improving project efficiency and lowering associated timelines and costs. Economies of scale are being realized as Model/Z has produced over 500 affordable housing units and supplied for projects up to 188 units, shortening schedules and lowering per-unit costs and supporting affordable housing goals in income-challenged South Los Angeles. Modular methods offer a scalable, resource-efficient pathway to increasing affordable housing supply while reducing total development costs by 10-15% and project timelines by 50%, while simultaneously creating local jobs and training opportunities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Processor Units Reduce Satellite Construction Costs

As part of the effort to build the Fast Affordable Science and Technology Satellite (FASTSAT), Marshall Space Flight Center developed a low-cost telemetry unit which is used to facilitate communication between a satellite and its receiving station. Huntsville, Alabama-based Orbital Telemetry Inc. has licensed the NASA technology and is offering to install the cost-cutting units on commercial satellites.

Source record↗

Advanced Modular Sub-Atmospheric Hybrid Heat Engine (Final Report)

The Phase 1 Final Technical Report describes the results of the work completed during the “Advanced Modular Sub-Atmospheric Hybrid Heat Engine” project. A key part of the Phase 1 work was the completion of a thermodynamic cycle analysis for the MHHE at the selected module size. The hybrid heat engine has been developed as a modular unit (sized in the range of 500kW – 60MW) that can be used with modular coal or biomass gasifiers, with distributed power generation systems, with large power plants comprised of multiple generating units, and with natural gas compression stations. The MHHE will provide cleaner, more efficient, and lower cost generation with better load following capabilities than existing competing technologies with a singular generating source such as solar farm, gas turbine, or combustion engine. The drivers of the MHHE technology are: benefits of modular power generation (reduced equipment cost, construction cost and implementation time, connection ready on delivery, flexible scalability, serviceability), fuel flexibility, lowest cost power generation and reduced emissions.A logical progression of work and a clear path forward toward meeting the FOA goals and objectives have been established. Namely, a preliminary market analysis and primary fuel identification was completed first and then the modularity of the system was defined. The benefits of the proposed hybrid and modular heat engine were described when applied to modular coal gasifiers, distributed power generators, and larger power plants. Based on the market analysis, modularity, and chosen primary fuel, a conceptual design and layout of the hybrid heat engine was developed, analyzed, and characterized. The technology gaps already identified have been reviewed and expanded upon, and a test plan to address these gaps through bench scale testing in Phase 2 has been developed. Cost estimate methodology and considerations in support of a potential Phase 2 project have been described.

08 HYDROGEN↗

100% Carbon-Free Electricity for Sandia NM and KAFB Using Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) (SAND Report)

This report provides a design study to produce 100% carbon-free electricity for Sandia NM and Kirtland Air Force Base (KAFB) using concentrating solar power (CSP). Annual electricity requirements for both Sandia and KAFB are presented, along with specific load centers that consume a significant and continuous amount of energy. CSP plant designs of 50 MW and 100 MW are then discussed to meet the needs of Sandia NM and the combined electrical needs of both Sandia NM and KAFB. Probabilistic modeling is performed to evaluate inherent uncertainties in performance and cost parameters on total construction costs and the levelized cost of electricity. Total overnight construction costs are expected to range between ~$300M - $400M for the 50 MW CSP plant and between ~$500M - $800M for the 100 MW plant. Annual operations and maintenance (O&M) costs are estimated together with potential offsets in electrical costs and CO 2 emissions. Other considerations such as interconnections, land use and permitting, funding options, and potential agreements and partnerships with Public Service Company of New Mexico (PNM), Western Area Power Administration (WAPA), and other entities are also discussed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Cost-Efficient Construction at Los Alamos National Laboratory

The construction industry can be fraught with cost, schedule, and scope overruns. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), a Department of Energy (DOE) / National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) facility located in Northern New Mexico, seems to be particularly vulnerable to cost and schedule overruns. Since Triad National Security, LLC acquired the management and operating (M&O) contract for LANL in 2018, the group has been striving to reduce the cost of construction across the forty square-mile campus.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

CSP Design Study for Sandia National Laboratories and Kirtland Air Force Base

This report provides a design study to produce 100% carbon-free electricity for Sandia NM and Kirtland Air Force Base (KAFB) using concentrating solar power (CSP). CSP plant designs of 50 MW and 100 MW are assessed to meet the electricity needs of Sandia NM and/or KAFB. Probabilistic modeling is performed to evaluate inherent uncertainties in performance and cost parameters on total construction costs and the levelized cost of electricity. Estimated annual electricity production was ~200 – 300 GWh for the 50 MW plant and ~400 – 700 GWh for the 100 MW plant. The overnight construction costs ranged between ~$300M - $400M for the 50 MW CSP plant and between ~$500M - $800M for the 100 MW CSP plant. The heliostat field was the most significant subsystem cost, followed by the thermal energy storage, power cycle, and fixed operation and maintenance costs. Other considerations such as land availability and permitting, funding options, and interconnections are discussed.

Ho, Clifford K.↗

Evaluation of selected chemical processes for production of low-cost silicon

Plant construction costs and manufacturing costs were estimated for the production of solar-grade silicon by the reduction of silicon tetrachloride in a fluidized bed of seed particles, and several modifications of the iodide process using either thermal decomposition on heated filaments (rods) or hydrogen reduction in a fluidized bed of seed particles. Energy consumption data for the zinc reduction process and each of the iodide process options are given and all appear to be acceptable from the standpoint of energy pay back. Information is presented on the experimental zinc reduction of SiCl4 and electrolytic recovery of zinc from ZnCl2. All of the experimental work performed thus far has supported the initial assumption as to technical feasibility of producing semiconductor silicon by the zinc reduction or iodide processes proposed. The results of a more thorough thermodynamic evaluation of the iodination of silicon oxide/carbon mixtures are presented which explain apparent inconsistencies in an earlier cursory examination of the system.

Blocher, J. M., Jr.↗

Construction bidding cost of KSC's space shuttle facilities

The bidding cost of the major Space Transportation System facilities constructed under the responsibility of the John F. Kennedy Space Center (KSC) is described and listed. These facilities and Ground Support Equipment (GSE) are necessary for the receiving, assembly, testing, and checkout of the Space Shuttle for launch and landing missions at KSC. The Shuttle launch configuration consists of the Orbiter, the External Tank, and the Solid Rocket Boosters (SRB). The reusable Orbiter and SRB's is the major factor in the program that will result in lowering space travel costs. The new facilities are the Landing Facility; Orbiter Processing Facility; Orbiter Approach and Landing Test Facility (Dryden Test Center, California); Orbiter Mating Devices; Sound Suppression Water System; and Emergency Power System for LC-39. Also, a major factor was to use as much Apollo facilities and hardware as possible to reduce the facilities cost. The alterations to existing Apollo facilities are the VAB modifications; Mobile Launcher Platforms; Launch Complex 39 Pads A and B (which includes a new concept - the Rotary Service Structure), which was featured in ENR, 3 Feb. 1977, 'Hinged Space Truss will Support Shuttle Cargo Room'; Launch Control Center mods; External Tank and SRB Processing and Storage; Fluid Test Complex mods; O&C Spacelab mods; Shuttle mods for Parachute Facility; SRB Recovery and Disassembly Facility at Hangar 'AF'; and an interesting GSE item - the SRB Dewatering Nozzle Plug Sets (Remote Controlled Submarine System) used to inspect and acquire for reuse of SRB's.

Brown, Joseph Andrew↗

Randomized Preconditioned Solvers for Strong Constraint 4D-Var Data Assimilation

The Strong Constraint 4D Variational (SC-4DVAR) data assimilation method is widely used in climate and weather applications. SC-4DVAR involves solving a minimization problem to compute the maximum a posteriori estimate, which we tackle using the Gauss-Newton method. The computation of the descent direction is expensive since it involves the solution of a large-scale and potentially ill-conditioned linear system, solved using the preconditioned conjugate gradient (PCG) method. Here, to address this cost, we efficiently construct scalable preconditioners using three different randomization techniques, which all rely on a certain low-rank structure involving the Gauss-Newton Hessian. The proposed techniques come with theoretical guarantees on the condition number, and at the same time, are amenable to parallelization. We also develop an adaptive approach to estimate the sketch size and choose between the reuse or recomputation of the preconditioner. We demonstrate the performance and effectiveness of our methodology on two representative model problems—the Burgers and barotropic vorticity equation—showing a drastic reduction in both the number of PCG iterations and the number of Gauss-Newton Hessian products after including the preconditioner construction cost.

Gauss-Newton↗

Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2016 for the District of Columbia

This report describes the methodology and results of a state cost-effectiveness analysis of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2016. Moving to the Standard 90.1-2016 edition from Standard 90.1-2013 is found to be cost-effective for the state. Annual energy cost savings, added construction costs, and life-cycle costs are all described and presented here for various building types and climate zones.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2016 for the State of Alabama

This report describes the methodology and results of a state cost-effectiveness analysis of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2016. Moving to the Standard 90.1-2016 edition from Standard 90.1-2013 is found to be cost-effective for the state. Annual energy cost savings, added construction costs, and life-cycle costs are all described and presented here for various building types and climate zones.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2016 for the State of Alaska

This report describes the methodology and results of a state cost-effectiveness analysis of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2016. Moving to the Standard 90.1-2016 edition from Standard 90.1-2013 is found to be cost-effective for the state. Annual energy cost savings, added construction costs, and life-cycle costs are all described and presented here for various building types and climate zones.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2016 for the State of Arkansas

This report describes the methodology and results of a state cost-effectiveness analysis of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2016. Moving to the Standard 90.1-2016 edition from Standard 90.1-2013 is found to be cost-effective for the state. Annual energy cost savings, added construction costs, and life-cycle costs are all described and presented here for various building types and climate zones.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2016 for the State of Arizona

This report describes the methodology and results of a state cost-effectiveness analysis of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2016. Moving to the Standard 90.1-2016 edition from Standard 90.1-2013 is found to be cost-effective for the state. Annual energy cost savings, added construction costs, and life-cycle costs are all described and presented here for various building types and climate zones.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2016 for the State of Colorado

This report describes the methodology and results of a state cost-effectiveness analysis of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2016. Moving to the Standard 90.1-2016 edition from Standard 90.1-2013 is found to be cost-effective for the state. Annual energy cost savings, added construction costs, and life-cycle costs are all described and presented here for various building types and climate zones.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Cost Effectiveness of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2016 for the State of Connecticut

This report describes the methodology and results of a state cost-effectiveness analysis of ASHRAE Standard 90.1-2016. Moving to the Standard 90.1-2016 edition from Standard 90.1-2013 is found to be cost-effective for the state. Annual energy cost savings, added construction costs, and life-cycle costs are all described and presented here for various building types and climate zones.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗