Computation of regions of constrained stability for nonlinear control systems
Computation of regions of constrained stability for nonlinear control systems
Gelopulos, D. P.↗
SEARCH · Engineering Papers
Results for “constrained regions”
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Regions of constrained maximum likelihood parameter identifiability
This paper considers the parameter identification problem of general discrete-time, nonlinear, multiple-input/multiple-output dynamic systems with Gaussian-white distributed measurement errors. Knowledge of the system parameterization is assumed to be known. Regions of constrained maximum likelihood (CML) parameter identifiability are established. A computation procedure employing interval arithmetic is proposed for finding explicit regions of parameter identifiability for the case of linear systems. It is shown that if the vector of true parameters is locally CML identifiable, then with probability one, the vector of true parameters is a unique maximal point of the maximum likelihood function in the region of parameter identifiability and the CML estimation sequence will converge to the true parameters.
Lee, C.-H.↗
Regions of constrained maximum likelihood parameter identifiability
This short paper considers the parameter-identification problem of general discrete-time, nonlinear, multiple input-multiple output dynamic systems with Gaussian white distributed measurement errors. Knowledge of the system parameterization is assumed to be available. Regions of constrained maximum likelihood (CML) parameter identifiability are established. A computation procedure employing interval arithmetic is proposed for finding explicit regions of parameter identifiability for the case of linear systems.
Lee, C.-H.↗
Threefold reduction of modeled uncertainty in direct radiative effects over biomass burning regions by constraining absorbing aerosols
Absorbing aerosols emitted from biomass burning (BB) greatly affect the radiation balance, cloudiness, and circulation over tropical regions. Assessments of these impacts rely heavily on the modeled aerosol absorption from poorly constrained global models and thus exhibit large uncertainties. By combining the AeroCom model ensemble with satellite and in situ observations, we provide constraints on the aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) over the Amazon and Africa. Our approach enables identification of error contributions from emission, lifetime, and MAC (mass absorption coefficient) per model, with MAC and emission dominating the AAOD errors over Amazon and Africa, respectively. In addition to primary emissions, our analysis suggests substantial formation of secondary organic aerosols over the Amazon but not over Africa. Furthermore, we find that differences in direct aerosol radiative effects between models decrease by threefold over the BB source and outflow regions after correcting the identified errors. This highlights the potential to greatly reduce the uncertainty in the most uncertain radiative forcing agent.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot–dry events
Compound hot–dry events—co-occurring hot and dry extremes—frequently cause damages to human and natural systems, often exceeding separate impacts from heatwaves and droughts. Strong increases in the occurrence of these events are projected with warming, but associated uncertainties remain large and poorly understood. Here, using climate model large ensembles, we show that mean precipitation trends exclusively modulate the future occurrence of compound hot–dry events over land. This occurs because local warming will be large enough that future droughts will always coincide with at least moderately hot extremes, even in a 2°C warmer world. By contrast, precipitation trends are often weak and equivocal in sign, depending on the model, region and internal climate variability. Therefore, constraining regional precipitation trends will also constrain future compound hot–dry events. These results help to assess future frequencies of other compound extremes characterized by strongly different trends in the drivers.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Contributions to regional precipitation change and its polar-amplified pattern under warming
Abstract The polar regions are predicted to experience the largest relative change in precipitation in response to increased greenhouse-gas concentrations, where a substantial absolute increase in precipitation coincides with small precipitation rates in the present-day climate. The reasons for this amplification, however, are still debated. Here, we use an atmospheric energy budget to decompose regional precipitation change from climate models under greenhouse-gas forcing into contributions from atmospheric radiative feedbacks, dry-static energy flux divergence changes, and surface sensible heat flux changes. The polar-amplified relative precipitation change is shown to be a consequence of the Planck feedback, which, when combined with larger polar warming, favors substantial atmospheric radiative cooling that balances increases in latent heat release from precipitation. Changes in the dry-static energy flux divergence contribute modestly to the polar-amplified pattern. Additional contributions to the polar-amplified response come, in the Arctic, from the cloud feedback and, in the Antarctic, from both the cloud and water vapor feedbacks. The primary contributor to the intermodel spread in the relative precipitation change in the polar region is also the Planck feedback, with the lapse rate feedback and dry-static energy flux divergence changes playing secondary roles. For all regions, there are strong covariances between radiative feedbacks and changes in the dry-static energy flux divergence that impact the intermodel spread. These results imply that constraining regional precipitation change, particularly in the polar regions, will require constraining not only individual feedbacks but also the covariances between radiative feedbacks and atmospheric energy transport.
Bonan, David B. (ORCID:0000000338676009)↗
A resource adequacy assessment of correlated wide-area outages in the power grid
As the power grid is undergoing rapid transformations, numerous questions are emerging about its vulnerability to wide-area extreme events (WAEE), which could influence its operations. Relatively few analyses have been conducted to date regarding the impact of correlated outages during WAEEs on the grid’s ability to balance resources with demand. This study addresses this gap by conducting a resource adequacy analysis for a hurricane-inspired WAEE on a 2035 synthetic power grid system for the United States. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to characterize the relative impact of weather on unserved energy. Our results indicate that although the magnitude and duration of the shortfalls vary depending on weather conditions, persistent shortfalls are observed in some regions. Initial explorations indicate a strong correlation between transmission-constrained regions and regions with persistent shortfalls. Future work could generate empirically-grounded representations for generator outages as well as conduct causal analyses of these shortfalls to improve understanding of drivers as well as possible mitigation strategies. Continued exploration of extreme weather impacts on the grid is important to develop more robust understanding of the reliability and resilience of our power systems, especially as they undergo rapid transformations.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
The physical meaning of the magnetic scalar potential and its use in the design of hermetic electromagnetic coils
The magnetic scalar potential U(r⃗) has an intuitive physical interpretation, representing the electric current I = ΔU, which must be directed between any pair of isocontours along the boundary of a region, differing in potential by ΔU, in order to generate the corresponding magnetic intensity H⃗=−∇⃗U inside the region with no tangential component outside the boundary. This physical significance is exploited to invert the design process of hermetic (fringeless) electromagnetic coils from standard iterative techniques (calculating the magnetic field of refined current distributions) to a procedure for calculating the exact surface currents required to generate a given field configuration. A practical construction algorithm is given to produce the prescribed field in a “Target” region (constrained only by Maxwell’s equations) while confining the fringe field to a specified hermetic “Return” region. Example coils are analyzed along with a discussion of the limits of precision of the constructed field.
Crawford, C. B. (ORCID:0000000219324334)↗
Recent Progress in Measuring and Modeling Patterns of Biomass and Soil Carbon Pools Across the Amazon Basin
Ever more detailed representations of above-ground biomass and soil carbon pools have been developed during the LBA project. Environmental controls such as regional climate, land cover history, secondary forest regrowth, and soil fertility are now being taken into account in regional inventory studies. This paper will review the evolution of measurement-extrapolation approaches, remote sensing, and simulation modeling techniques for biomass and soil carbon pools, which together help constrain regional carbon budgets and enhance in our understanding of uncertainty at the regional level.
Potter, Christopher↗
A new biogeochemical modelling framework (FLaMe-v1.0) for lake methane emissions on the regional scale: development and application to the European domain
This study presents a new physical-biogeochemical modelling framework for simulating lake methane (CH 4 ) emissions at regional scales. The new model, FLaMe-v1.0 (Fluxes of Lake Methane), rests on an innovative, computationally efficient lake clustering approach that enables the simulation of CH 4 emissions across a large number of lakes. Building on the Canadian Small Lake Model (CSLM) that simulates the lake physics, we develop a suite of biogeochemical modules to simulate transient dynamics of organic Carbon (C), Oxygen (O 2 ), and CH 4 . We first test the performance of FLaMe-v1.0 by analyzing physical and biogeochemical processes in two theoretical lakes with characteristics that can be considered representative for many lakes (an oligotrophic, deep lake driven by cold climate versus a eutrophic, shallow lake driven by warm climate). Next, we evaluate the model by comparing simulated and observed timeseries of CH 4 emissions in four well-surveyed lakes. We then apply FLaMe-v1.0 at the European scale to evaluate simulated diffusive and ebullitive lake CH 4 fluxes against in-situ measurements in both boreal and central European regions. Finally, we provide a first assessment of the spatio-temporal variability in CH 4 emissions from European lakes with a surface area comprised between 0.1–1000 km 2 (n= 108 407, total area = 1.33 × 105 km 2 ), indicating a total emission of 0.97 ± 0.23 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , with the uncertainty constrained by combining FLaMe-v1.0 and machine learning techniques. Moreover, 30 % and 70 % of these CH 4 emissions are through diffusive and ebullitive pathways, respectively. Annually averaged CH 4 emission rates per unit lake area during 2010–2016 have a South-to-North decreasing gradient, resulting in a mean over the European domain as 7.39 g CH 4 m −2 yr −1 . Our simulations reveal a strong seasonality (with ice-blocking effects accounted for) in European lake CH 4 emissions, with nearly ten times higher emissions during late summer than during winter. This pronounced seasonal variation highlights the importance of accounting for the sub-annual variability in CH 4 emissions to accurately constrain regional CH 4 budgets. In the future, FLaMe-v1.0 could be embedded into Earth System Models to investigate the feedback between climate warming and global lake CH 4 emissions.
Maisonnier, Manon [Free Univ. of Brussels (Belgium↗
Understanding the Effect of Land Cover Classification on Model Estimates of Regional Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest Biome
The original objectives of this proposed 3-year project were to: 1) quantify the respective contributions of land cover and disturbance (i.e., wild fire) to uncertainty associated with regional carbon source/sink estimates produced by a variety of boreal ecosystem models; 2) identify the model processes responsible for differences in simulated carbon source/sink patterns for the boreal forest; 3) validate model outputs using tower and field- based estimates of NEP and NPP; and 4) recommend/prioritize improvements to boreal ecosystem carbon models, which will better constrain regional source/sink estimates for atmospheric C02. These original objectives were subsequently distilled to fit within the constraints of a 1 -year study. This revised study involved a regional model intercomparison over the BOREAS study region involving Biome-BGC, and TEM (A.D. McGuire, UAF) ecosystem models. The major focus of these revised activities involved quantifying the sensitivity of regional model predictions associated with land cover classification uncertainties. We also evaluated the individual and combined effects of historical fire activity, historical atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and climate change on carbon and water flux simulations within the BOREAS study region.
Kimball, John↗
Neutron stars in $$f(\mathtt {R,L_m})$$ gravity with realistic equations of state: joint-constrains with GW170817, massive pulsars, and the PSR J0030+0451 mass-radius from NICER data
Abstract In this work, we investigate neutron stars (NS) in $$f(\mathtt {R,L_m})$$ f ( R , L m ) theory of gravity for the case $$f(\mathtt {R,L_m})= \mathtt {R}+ \mathtt {L_m}+ \sigma \mathtt {R}\mathtt {L_m}$$ f ( R , L m ) = R + L m + σ R L m , where $$\mathtt {R}$$ R is the Ricci scalar and $$\mathtt {L_m}$$ L m the Lagrangian matter density. In the term $$\sigma \mathtt {R}\mathtt {L_m}$$ σ R L m , $$\sigma $$ σ represents the coupling between the gravitational and particles fields. For the first time the hydrostatic equilibrium equations in the theory are solved considering realistic equations of state and NS masses and radii obtained are subject to joint constrains from massive pulsars, the gravitational wave event GW170817 and from the PSR J0030+0451 mass-radius from NASA’s Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer ( NICER ) data. We show that in this theory of gravity, the mass-radius results can accommodate massive pulsars, while the general theory of relativity can hardly do it. The theory also can explain the observed NS within the radius region constrained by the GW170817 and PSR J0030+0451 observations for masses around $$1.4~M_{\odot }$$ 1.4 M ⊙ .
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Recursive Hierarchical Image Segmentation by Region Growing and Constrained Spectral Clustering
This paper describes an algorithm for hierarchical image segmentation (referred to as HSEG) and its recursive formulation (referred to as RHSEG). The HSEG algorithm is a hybrid of region growing and constrained spectral clustering that produces a hierarchical set of image segmentations based on detected convergence points. In the main, HSEG employs the hierarchical stepwise optimization (HS WO) approach to region growing, which seeks to produce segmentations that are more optimized than those produced by more classic approaches to region growing. In addition, HSEG optionally interjects between HSWO region growing iterations merges between spatially non-adjacent regions (i.e., spectrally based merging or clustering) constrained by a threshold derived from the previous HSWO region growing iteration. While the addition of constrained spectral clustering improves the segmentation results, especially for larger images, it also significantly increases HSEG's computational requirements. To counteract this, a computationally efficient recursive, divide-and-conquer, implementation of HSEG (RHSEG) has been devised and is described herein. Included in this description is special code that is required to avoid processing artifacts caused by RHSEG s recursive subdivision of the image data. Implementations for single processor and for multiple processor computer systems are described. Results with Landsat TM data are included comparing HSEG with classic region growing. Finally, an application to image information mining and knowledge discovery is discussed.
Tilton, James C.↗
Dendritic cells focus CTL responses toward highly conserved and topologically important HIV-1 epitopes
During early HIV-1 infection, immunodominant T cell responses to highly variable epitopes lead to the establishment of immune escape virus variants. Here we assessed a type 1-polarized monocyte-derived dendritic cell (MDC1)-based approach to selectively elicit cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) responses against highly conserved and topologically important HIV-1 epitopes in HIV-1-infected individuals from the Thailand RV254/SEARCH 010 cohort who initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART) during early infection (Fiebig stages I-IV). Autologous MDC1 were used as antigen presenting cells to induce in vitro CTL responses against HIV-1 Gag, Pol, Env, and Nef as determined by flow cytometry and ELISpot assay. Ultra-conserved or topologically important antigens were respectively identified using the Epigraph tool and a structure-based network analysis approach and compared to overlapping peptides spanning the Gag proteome. MDC1 presenting either the overlapping Gag, Epigraph, or Network 14-21mer peptide pools consistently activated and expanded HIV-1-specific T cells to epitopes identified at the 9-13mer peptide level. Interestingly, some CTL responses occurred outside known or expected HLA associations, providing evidence of new HLA-associated CTL epitopes. Comparative analyses demonstrated more sequence conservation among Epigraph antigens but a higher magnitude of CTL responses to Network and Gag peptide groups. Importantly, CTL responses against topologically constrained Gag epitopes contained in both the Network and Gag peptide pools were selectively enhanced in the Network pool-initiated cultures. Our study supports the use of MDC1 as a therapeutic strategy to induce and focus CTL responses toward putative fitness-constrained regions of HIV-1 to prevent immune escape and control HIV-1 infection.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Customizable adaptive regularization techniques for B-spline modeling
B-spline models are a powerful way to represent scientific data sets with a functional approximation. However, these models can suffer from spurious oscillations when the data to be approximated are not uniformly distributed. Model regularization (i.e., smoothing) has traditionally been used to minimize these oscillations; unfortunately, it is sometimes impossible to sufficiently remove unwanted artifacts without smoothing away key features of the data set. In this article, we present a method of model regularization that preserves significant features of a data set while minimizing artificial oscillations. Our method varies the strength of a smoothing parameter throughout the domain automatically, removing artifacts in poorly-constrained regions while leaving other regions unchanged. Further, the proposed method selectively incorporates regularization terms based on first and second derivatives to maintain model accuracy while minimizing numerical artifacts. The behavior of our method is validated on a collection of two- and three-dimensional data sets produced by scientific simulations. In addition, a key tuning parameter is highlighted and the effects of this parameter are presented in detail. This paper is an extension of our previous conference paper at the 2022 International Conference on Computational Science (ICCS) (Lenz et al., 2022).
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Dragging force on galaxies due to streaming dark matter
It has been reported that galaxies in large regions (approx. 10(exp 2) Mpc), including some clusters of galaxies, may be streaming coherently with velocities up to 600 km/sec or more with respect to the rest frame determined by the microwave background radiation. On the other hand, it is suggested that the dominant mass component of the universe is dark matter. Because we can only speculate the motion of dark matter from the galaxy motions, much attention should be paid to the correlation of velocities between the observed galaxies and cold dark matter. So the authors investigated whether such coherent large-scale streaming velocities are due to dark matter or only to baryonic objects which may be formed by piling up of gases due to some explosive events. It seems that, although each galaxy will not follow the motion of dark matter, clusters of galaxies may represent the velocity field of dark matter. The origin of the velocity field of dark matter would be due to the initial adiabatic perturbations and, in fact, the observed peculiar velocities of clusters are within the allowed region constrained from the isotropy of the microwave background radiation.
Hara, Tetsuya↗
Observations in the vicinity of substorm onset: Implications for the substrom process
Multi-instrument data sets from the ground and satellites at both low and high altitude have provided new results concerning substorm onset and its source region in the magnetosphere. Twenty-six out of 37 substorm onset events showed evidence of azimuthally spaced auroral forms (AAFs) prior to the explosive poleward motion associated with optical substorm onset. AAFs can span 8 hours of local time prior to onset and generally propagate eastward in the morning sector. Onset itself is, however, more localized spanning only about 1 hour local time. AAF onset occur during time periods when the solar wind pressure is relatively high. AAFs brighten in conjunction with substorm onset leading to the conclusion that they are a growth phase activity casually related to substorm onset. Precursor activity associated with these AAFs is also seen near geosynchronous orbit altitude and examples show the relationship between the various instrumental definitions of substorm onset. The implied mode number (30 to 135) derived from this work is inconsistent with cavity mode resonances but is consistent with a modified flute/ballooning instability which requires azimuthal pressure gradients. The extended source region and the distance to the open-closed field line region constrain reconnection theory and local mechanisms for substorm onset. It is demonstrated that multiple onset substorms can exist for which localized dipolarizations and the Pi 2 occur simultaneously with tail stretching existing elsewhere. These pseudobreakups can be initiated by auroral streamers which originate at the most poleward set of arc systems and drift to the more equatorward main UV oval. Observations are presented of these AAFs in conjunction with low- and high-altitutde particle and magnetic field data. These place the activations at the interface between dipolar and taillike field lines probably near the peak in the cross-tail current. These onsets are put in the context of a new scenario for substorm morphology which employs individual modules which operate independently or couple together. This allows particular substorm events to be more accurately described and investigated.
Elphinstone, R. D.↗
Satellites Support Disaster Response to Storm-Driven Landslides
High winds and flooding storm surges driven by tropical cyclones cause some of the deadliest and most damaging weather-related conditions around the world. The rainfall that cyclones bring compounds these conditions and, in hilly or mountainous areas, can trigger landslides that cause even more widespread and devastating impacts. When extreme precipitation occurs over short time frames, hillslopes may become saturated and critically unstable. The most intense storms can trigger thousands of landslides in mountainous areas, as was dramatically illustrated in Puerto Rico in September 2017, when Hurricane Maria’s rains left the landscape scarred by roughly 40,000 landslides. Before and during a major cyclone, disaster responders need information about where landslides are likely to occur. In the aftermath, locating landslides quickly helps authorities direct resources to where they are most needed to save people and critical infrastructure. However, this information is often unavailable during an event response or is presented only for small regions, constraining the effectiveness of response efforts.
Robert Emberson↗