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NASA NTRS2012

Modeling a Civil Event Case Study for Consequence Management Using the IMPRINT Forces Module

A critical challenge in the Consequence Management (CM) domain is the appropriate allocation of necessary and skilled military and civilian personnel and materiel resources in unexpected emergencies. To aid this process we used the Forces module in the Improved Performance Research Integration Tool (IMPRINT). This module enables analysts to enter personnel and equipment capabilities, prioritized schedules and numbers available, along with unexpected emergency requirements in order to assess force response requirements. Using a suspected terrorist threat on a college campus, we developed a test case model which exercised the capabilities of the module, including the scope and scale of operations. The model incorporates data from multiple sources, including daily schedules and frequency of events such as fire calls. Our preliminary results indicate that the model can predict potential decreases in civilian emergency response coverage due to an involved unplanned incident requiring significant portions of police, fire and civil responses teams.

Gacy, Marc↗
NASA NTRS1995

A crew-centered flight deck design philosophy for High-Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) aircraft

Past flight deck design practices used within the U.S. commercial transport aircraft industry have been highly successful in producing safe and efficient aircraft. However, recent advances in automation have changed the way pilots operate aircraft, and these changes make it necessary to reconsider overall flight deck design. The High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) mission will likely add new information requirements, such as those for sonic boom management and supersonic/subsonic speed management. Consequently, whether one is concerned with the design of the HSCT, or a next generation subsonic aircraft that will include technological leaps in automated systems, basic issues in human usability of complex systems will be magnified. These concerns must be addressed, in part, with an explicit, written design philosophy focusing on human performance and systems operability in the context of the overall flight crew/flight deck system (i.e., a crew-centered philosophy). This document provides such a philosophy, expressed as a set of guiding design principles, and accompanied by information that will help focus attention on flight crew issues earlier and iteratively within the design process. This document is part 1 of a two-part set.

Palmer, Michael T.↗
NASA NTRS2013

A System for Fault Management and Fault Consequences Analysis for NASA's Deep Space Habitat

NASA's exploration program envisions the utilization of a Deep Space Habitat (DSH) for human exploration of the space environment in the vicinity of Mars and/or asteroids. Communication latencies with ground control of as long as 20+ minutes make it imperative that DSH operations be highly autonomous, as any telemetry-based detection of a systems problem on Earth could well occur too late to assist the crew with the problem. A DSH-based development program has been initiated to develop and test the automation technologies necessary to support highly autonomous DSH operations. One such technology is a fault management tool to support performance monitoring of vehicle systems operations and to assist with real-time decision making in connection with operational anomalies and failures. Toward that end, we are developing Advanced Caution and Warning System (ACAWS), a tool that combines dynamic and interactive graphical representations of spacecraft systems, systems modeling, automated diagnostic analysis and root cause identification, system and mission impact assessment, and mitigation procedure identification to help spacecraft operators (both flight controllers and crew) understand and respond to anomalies more effectively. In this paper, we describe four major architecture elements of ACAWS: Anomaly Detection, Fault Isolation, System Effects Analysis, and Graphic User Interface (GUI), and how these elements work in concert with each other and with other tools to provide fault management support to both the controllers and crew. We then describe recent evaluations and tests of ACAWS on the DSH testbed. The results of these tests support the feasibility and strength of our approach to failure management automation and enhanced operational autonomy

System Effects Analysis↗
NASA NTRS2011

Predicting the Consequences of Workload Management Strategies with Human Performance Modeling

Human performance modelers at the US Army Research Laboratory have developed an approach for establishing Soldier high workload that can be used for analyses of proposed system designs. Their technique includes three key components. To implement the approach in an experiment, the researcher would create two experimental conditions: a baseline and a design alternative. Next they would identify a scenario in which the test participants perform all their representative concurrent interactions with the system. This scenario should include any events that would trigger a different set of goals for the human operators. They would collect workload values during both the control and alternative design condition to see if the alternative increased workload and decreased performance. They have successfully implemented this approach for military vehicle. designs using the human performance modeling tool, IMPRINT. Although ARL researches use IMPRINT to implement their approach, it can be applied to any workload analysis. Researchers using other modeling and simulations tools or conducting experiments or field tests can use the same approach.

Mitchell, Diane Kuhl↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Miserable Risk Estimation: “Managing” Low-Probability, High-Consequence Risks

As with all bold endeavors, NASA missions must identify and manage their risks. While estimating the consequences of these risks is typically straightforward, it can be challenging to estimate their likelihood. This is especially true for low-probability risks, due both to the lack of operational data and the cognitive biases humans bring to risk estimation. In this talk, I will present both a tongue-in-cheek and “Management Science” approach to estimating low-probability, high-consequence risks. I then summon my Human Factors colleagues to provide NASA mission managers with the gentle guidance needed to avoid common errors in risk assessment

Mary K Kaiser↗
NASA NTRS1993

Workload management and geographic disorientation in aviation incidents: A review of the ASRS data base

NASA's Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) incident reports are reviewed in two related areas: pilots' failures to appropriately manage tasks, and breakdowns in geographic orientation. Examination of 51 relevant reports on task management breakdowns revealed that altitude busts and inappropriate runway usee were the most frequently reported consequences. Task management breakdowns appeared to occur at all levels of expertise, and prominent causal factors were related to breakdowns in crew communications, over-involvement with the flight management system and, for small (general aviation) aircraft, preoccupation with weather. Analysis of the 83 cases of geographic disorientation suggested that these too occurred at all levels of pilot experience. With regard to causal factors, a majority was related to poor cockpit resource management, in which inattention led to a loss of geographic awareness. Other leading causes were related to poor weather and poor decision making. The potential of the ASRS database for contributing to research and design issues is addressed.

Williams, Henry P.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Detecting And Characterizing Archetypes of Unintended Consequences in Engineered Systems

When designing engineered systems, the potential for unintended consequences of design policies or design decisions exists despite best intentions. Conditions that might cause the formation of unintended consequences are often known only in hindsight. However, since these conditions are associated with a single event, it is difficult to uncover the general patterns of conditions leading to unintended consequences. In this research, patterns of conditions associated with unintended consequences are learned from historical data and represented in the form of archetypes. While previous work using systems theoretic modeling has identified high-level archetypes, this work leverages a self-organizing map to learn archetypes of unintended consequences from human-tagged risk factors in a large data set of lessons learned from adverse events at NASA. The sixty-six identified archetypes contain patterns of conditions such as complexity and human-machine interaction associated with the formation of unintended consequences. To validate the archetypes, a sample of the archetypes is represented using system dynamics in order to illustrate that the identified archetypes are specialized versions of known high-level archetypes of unintended consequences. While the research is based upon a specific dataset, the archetypes apply to any engineered system and the pattern of leading indicators open a new path to manage unintended consequences and mitigate the magnitude of potentially adverse outcomes.

Hannah S Walsh↗
NASA NTRS1997

Effects of Modality on Interrupted Flight Deck Performance: Implications for Data Link

Externally-imposed tasks frequently interrupt ongoing task performance in the commercial flight deck. While normally managed without consequence, basic research as well as aviation accident and incident investigations show that interruptions can negatively affect performance and safety. This research investigates the influence of interruption and interrupted task modality on pilot performance in a simulated commercial flight deck. Fourteen current commercial airline pilots performed approach scenarios in a fixed-base flight simulator. Air traffic control instructions, conveyed either aurally or visually (via a data link system) interrupted a visual task (obtaining information from the Flight Management System) and an auditory task (listening to the automated terminal information service recording). Some results confirm the hypothesized performance advantage of cross-modality conditions, more compelling nature of auditory interruptions, and interruption-resistance of auditory ongoing tasks. However, taken together, results suggest the four interaction conditions had different effects on pilot performance. These results have implications for the design of data link systems, and for facilitating interruption management through interface design, aiding, and training programs.

Latorella, Kara A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Global Assimilation of Multi-Sensor Snow Observations for Improved Characterization of Snow Processes

Snow conditions on the land surface are recognized to be key components of the global hydrological cycle as they play a critical role in the determination of local and regional climate. In many mid-latitude and high-latitude regions, the seasonal water storage and associated spring snowmelt dominate the local hydrology. The contribution to the runoff and moisture conditions from snow is vital in supporting agriculture and in determining water resources management practices. Consequently, accurate characterization of snow properties becomes important for both end-use applications and weather and climate research. Recently a joint effort between the u.S. Air Force and NASA has enabled a blended, multi-sensor snow product known as the AFWA NASA Snow Algorithm (ANSA). This global snow dataset has been generated by utilizing the Earth Observation System (EOS) Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) datasets. ANSA product includes estimates of snow cover extent, snow water equivalent (SWE) and SWE-derived snow depth fields. The MODIS-based products enable snow cover mappings under cloud-free conditions whereas the passive microwave data from AMSR-E provides measurements under cloudy conditions. These remotely-sensed snow observations are further augmented with the information from ground-based snow measurements through data fusion techniques. The resulting ANSA products are employed in the NASA Land Information System (LIS) data assimilation framework, which provides a comprehensive environment for integrating community land surface models, ground and satellite-based observations, and ensemble-based data assimilation tools. LIS incorporates the multisensor ANSA snow retrievals with the land surface model estimates to generate spatially and temporally continuous estimates of snow states, through data assimilation. A suite of experiments to assimilate ANSA snow cover, SWE and snow depth estimates with different land surface models in LIS are conducted and the resulting estimates of snow conditions are evaluated against a number of in-situ observational datasets, over several regions of the world. These evaluations are used to compare and contrast the advantages and disadvantages of these multi-sensor snow observations.

Kumar, Sujay↗
NASA NTRS1971

Top management and management science: An exploratory study in 15 Federal civilian agencies

A study of the relation between top managers in Federal agencies and the operations research and management science (OR/MS) group is reported. Sixteen managers were questioned about the following characteristics: closeness of top managers to OR/MS groups; top managers' attitudes toward the OR/MS activities; relation between closeness and these attitudes; and top managers' use of OR/MS groups. It is concluded that OR/MS is relevant to many top managers and that OR/MS has begun to play a role in decisions. Top management attitudes and actions are not related in obvious ways. The consequences to top management's use of and closeness to an OR/MS group need not be the success of the group as a professional, innovative, research-oriented unit.

White, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Population Viability Analysis (PVA) as a Platform for Predicting Outcomes of Management Options for the Florida Scrub-Jay in Brevard County

The Florida scrub-jay (FSJ) is a species in decline because of extinction debt caused by habitat fragmentation and degradation. Understanding and managing the species and its habitats is challenging due to the complex interactions among the social system, a dynamic mosaic of scrub habitat, and active management. To provide insights into the possible fates of the FSJ populations of mainland, cape, and island sections of Brevard County, we modeled the population dynamics using the Vortex population viability analysis (PVA) software. Vortex is an individual-based simulation that allowed us to include such factors as demographic rates dependent on habitat state, impact of helpers on breeding success, and helper to breeder transition probabilities responding to availability of nearby vacant optimal habitat and vacancies due to the death of breeders. Detailed modeling of the FSJ was possible only because a lot of data about the species and its habitats have been gathered over decades of intensive research. We followed a phased approach to constructing population models that incorporated the best available science and data to address a variety of conservation actions. The first phase focused on constructing a model that incorporates sociobiology and source-sink habitat dynamics. This model allowed us to address some of the most important questions about population size and habitat quality. Once the model framework was in place, we considered the real landscapes and actual local populations, rather than just generic representations of typical FSJ dynamics. After examining the viability of the metapopulations under current conditions, we explored the likely consequences of various management actions that might slow or reverse population declines.

Population Viability Analysis↗
NASA NTRS1991

STV fueling options

Lunar vehicles that will be space based and reusable will require resupply of propellants in orbit. Approximately 75 pct. of the total mass delivered to low earth orbit will be propellants. Consequently, the propellant management techniques selected for Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) orbital operations will have a major influence on the overall SEI architecture. Five proposed propellant management facility (PMF) concepts were analyzed and compared in order to determine the best method of resupplying reusable, space based Lunar Transfer Vehicles (LTVs). The processing time needed at the Space Station to prepare LTV for its next lunar mission was estimated for each of the PMF concepts. The estimated times required to assemble and maintain the different PMF concepts were also compared. The results of the maintenance analysis were similar, with co-orbiting depots needing 100 to 350 pct. more annual maintenance. The first few external tanks mating operations at KSC encountered many problems that could cause serious lunar mission schedule delays. The use of drop tanks on lunar vehicles increases by a factor of four the number of critical propellant interface disturbances.

Flemming, Ken↗
NASA NTRS2017

Geomagnetically Induced Currents: Science, Engineering, and Applications Readiness

This paper is the primary deliverable of the very first NASA Living With a Star Institute Working Group, Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC) Working Group. The paper provides a broad overview of the current status and future challenges pertaining to the science, engineering, and applications of the GIC problem. Science is understood here as the basic space and Earth sciences research that allows improved understanding and physics-based modeling of the physical processes behind GIC. Engineering, in turn, is understood here as the ''impact'' aspect of GIC. Applications are understood as the models, tools, and activities that can provide actionable information to entities such as power systems operators for mitigating the effects of GIC and government agencies for managing any potential consequences from GIC impact to critical infrastructure. Applications can be considered the ultimate goal of our GIC work. In assessing the status of the field, we quantify the readiness of various applications in the mitigation context. We use the Applications Readiness Level (ARL) concept to carry out the quantification.

Geomagnetically induced currents↗
NASA NTRS2024

Sensor Fault Detection in Smart Extraterrestrial Habitats Using Unsupervised Learning

Various types of sensors are needed to monitor the health state of smart deep-space habitats. However, measured data can be affected by sensor faults, which influence the health management system and consequently the decision-making. In this paper, an unsupervised learning approach based on convolutional autoencoders (CAEs) is developed to detect anomalies in temperature and pressure sensors. The proposed method is systematically investigated using a habitat simulator (HabSim). Several illustrative examples are demonstrated in the nominal and hazardous states of the habitat, including micrometeorite impact and fire scenarios. The performance of the proposed method using CAEs is compared with that of existing methods using auto-associative neural networks (AANNs) and variational autoencoders. This comparison is based on typical evaluation metrics, including precision, recall, F1 score, training time, and testing time. The effect of temperature–pressure coupling on the detection performance of CAEs and AANNs is explored by training different data-driven models, including one with temperature sensors, one with pressure sensors, and one with both temperature and pressure sensors. The effect of the number of faulty sensors on the performance of CAEs is studied, as with an increase in the number of faulty sensors, redundant information among the sensors is reduced. The capability of CAEs to change the number of sensors without redesigning the network architecture and retraining the neural network is investigated and demonstrated. The capabilities and limitations of the proposed solution are discussed.

Zixin Wang↗
NASA NTRS1993

Role of strategic planning in engineering management

Today, more than ever before, engineers are faced with uncertain and sometimes chaotic environments in which to function. The traditional roles of an engineer to design, develop, and streamline a manufacturing process for a product are still valued and relevant. However, the need for an engineer to participate in the process of identifying the product to be developed, the schedule and resources required, and the goal of satisfying the customer, has become paramount to achieving the success of the enterprise. When we include these endeavors in the functions of an engineer, management of 'engineering' takes on a new dimension. In this paper, the ramifications of the changing and increased functions of an engineer and consequent impacts on engineering management are explored. The basic principles which should be invoked in order to embrace the new environment for engineering management are outlined. The ultimate finding of this study is that the enterprise strategic plan should be developed in such a way as to allow engineering management to encompass the full spectrum of the responsibilities of engineers. A consequence of this is that the fundamental elements of the strategic process can best be implemented through a project team or group approach. The paper thus concentrates on three areas: evolving environment, strategic plan, and ways to achieve enterprise success.

Krishen, Kumar↗
NASA NTRS2014

Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Approach to Enterprise Risk Management

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Exploration Systems Development (ESD) Division has implemented an innovative approach to Enterprise Risk Management under a unique governance structure and streamlined integration model. ESD's mission is to design and build the capability to extend human existence to deep space. The Enterprise consists of three Programs: Space Launch System (SLS), Orion, and Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO). The SLS is a rocket and launch system that will be capable of powering humans, habitats, and support systems to deep space. Orion will be the first spacecraft in history capable of taking humans to multiple destinations within deep space. GSDO is modernizing Kennedy's spaceport to launch spacecraft built and designed by both NASA and private industry. ESD's approach to Enterprise Risk Management is commensurate with affordability and a streamlined management philosophy. ESD Enterprise Risk Management leverages off of the primary mechanisms for integration within the Enterprise. The Enterprise integration approach emphasizes delegation of authority to manage and execute the majority of cross-program activities and products to the individual Programs, while maintaining the overall responsibility for all cross-program activities at the Division. The intent of the ESD Enterprise Risk Management approach is to improve risk communication, to avoid replication and/or contradictory strategies, and to minimize overhead process burden. This is accomplished by the facilitation and integration of risk information within ESD. The ESD Division risks, Orion risks, SLS risks, and GSDO risks are owned and managed by the applicable Program. When the Programs have shared risks with multiple consequences, they are jointly owned and managed. When a risk is associated with the integrated system that involves more than one Program in condition, consequence, or mitigation plan, it is considered an Exploration Systems Integration (ESI) Risk. An ESI risk may require visibility and risk handling by multiple organizations. The Integrated Risk Working Group (IRWG) is a small team of Risk experts that are responsible for collaborating and communicating best practices. In addition, the forum facilitates proper integration of risks across the Enterprise. The IRWG uses a Continuous Risk Management approach for facilitating the identification, analysis, planning, tracking, and controlling of ESI Risks. The ESD Division, Programs, and Integrated Task Teams identify ESI Risks. The IRWG maintains a set of metrics for understanding Enterprise Risk process and the overall Risk Posture. The team is also actively involved in the modeling of risk for Enterprise Performance Management. With the Enterprise being constrained in Schedule and Budget, and with significant technical complexity, the appropriate use of Risk Management techniques is crucial to the success of the Enterprise. The IRWG achieves this through the modified approach, providing a forum for collaboration on risks that cross boundaries between the separate entities.

Bauder, Stephen P.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Consideration of Collision "Consequence" in Satellite Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis

Classic risk management theory requires the assessment of both likelihood and consequence of deleterious events. Satellite conjunction risk assessment has produced a highly-developed theory for assessing collision likelihood but holds a completely static solution for collision consequence, treating all potential collisions as essentially equally worrisome. This may be true for the survival of the protected asset, but the amount of debris produced by the potential collision, and therefore the degree to which the orbital corridor may be compromised, can vary greatly among satellite conjunctions. This study leverages present work on satellite collision modeling to develop a method by which it can be estimated, to a particular confidence level, whether a particular collision is likely to produce a relatively large or relatively small amount of resultant debris and how this datum might alter conjunction remediation decisions. The more general question of orbital corridor protection is also addressed, and a preliminary framework presented by which both collision likelihood and consequence can be jointly considered in the risk assessment process.

Hejduk, M.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Zones of coastal hypoxia revealed by satellite scanning have implications for strategic fishing

Little is known about the spatial and temporal scales of hypoxic bottom water areas that occur along the inner continental shelf of Texas and Louisiana. Because hypoxia appears to be related to surface chlorophyll and temperature, which can both be measured with the Coastal Zone Color Scanner aboard the Nimbus 7 satellite, an attempt has been made to determine whether conditions favorable for the formation of hypoxia could be detected and monitored from space. A linear discriminant function has identified areas of bottom water hypoxia detected by research vessels up to 10 days after satellite overpass, and predicted hypoxic areas without resort to research vessel data. Such space mapping may be of consequence for marine resource management and exploitation.

Leming, T. D.↗