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At least 19 records

Cognitive consequences of clumsy automation on high workload, high consequence human performance

The growth of computational power has fueled attempts to automate more of the human role in complex problem solving domains, especially those where system faults have high consequences and where periods of high workload may saturate the performance capacity of human operators. Examples of these domains include flightdecks, space stations, air traffic control, nuclear power operation, ground satellite control rooms, and surgical operating rooms. Automation efforts may have unanticipated effects on human performance, particularly if they increase the workload at peak workload times or change the practitioners' strategies for coping with workload. Smooth and effective changes in automation requires detailed understanding of the congnitive tasks confronting the user: it has been called user centered automation. The introduction of a new computerized technology in a group of hospital operating rooms used for heart surgery was observed. The study revealed how automation, especially 'clumsy automation', effects practitioner work patterns and suggest that clumsy automation constrains users in specific and significant ways. Users tailor both the new system and their tasks in order to accommodate the needs of process and production. The study of this tailoring may prove a powerful tool for exposing previously hidden patterns of user data processing, integration, and decision making which may, in turn, be useful in the design of more effective human-machine systems.

Cook, Richard I.

Consequences of contamination of the spacecraft environment: immunologic consequences

Long-term space voyages pose numerous known and unknown health hazards, to the human immune system. Well-studied clinical examples of secondary immunodeficiencies created on Earth, lead one to predict that the conditions of prolonged space flight would weaken the human immune responses that normally hold infection and cancer in check. From evidence gathered from humans flown for prolonged periods in space and from human models of space flight studied on Earth it is reasonable to suspect that space travelers to the planet Mars would experience a weakening of immunity. Subtle defects of immune cell structure and function have been observed in astronauts, such as weakening of specific T-lymphocyte recall of specific antigens. Ground-based models also have demonstrated alterations of immune function, such as the elevation of neuroendocrine immune system messengers, interleukin-6, and soluble tumor necrosis factor-alpha receptor in sleep deprivation. Since severe immune compromise the clinical consequences of reactivation of latent virus infections and the development of cancer, has yet to be seen in space flight or in the Earth models, it is extremely important to begin to quantify early changes in immunity to predict the development of immune system collapse with poor clinical outcomes. This approach is designed to validate a number of surrogate markers that will predict trouble ahead. Inherent in this research is the development of countermeasures to reduce the risks of infection and cancer in the first humans going to Mars.

Non-NASA Center

Detecting And Characterizing Archetypes of Unintended Consequences in Engineered Systems

When designing engineered systems, the potential for unintended consequences of design policies or design decisions exists despite best intentions. Conditions that might cause the formation of unintended consequences are often known only in hindsight. However, since these conditions are associated with a single event, it is difficult to uncover the general patterns of conditions leading to unintended consequences. In this research, patterns of conditions associated with unintended consequences are learned from historical data and represented in the form of archetypes. While previous work using systems theoretic modeling has identified high-level archetypes, this work leverages a self-organizing map to learn archetypes of unintended consequences from human-tagged risk factors in a large data set of lessons learned from adverse events at NASA. The sixty-six identified archetypes contain patterns of conditions such as complexity and human-machine interaction associated with the formation of unintended consequences. To validate the archetypes, a sample of the archetypes is represented using system dynamics in order to illustrate that the identified archetypes are specialized versions of known high-level archetypes of unintended consequences. While the research is based upon a specific dataset, the archetypes apply to any engineered system and the pattern of leading indicators open a new path to manage unintended consequences and mitigate the magnitude of potentially adverse outcomes.

Hannah S Walsh

Extravehicular Activity on the Lunar Surface: Mapping Mitigation Risk Consequence for Crew Needing Assistance or Rescue

Extravehicular activity (EVA) on the lunar surface presents unique risks to crew with possibility for injury. Without appropriate assistance or rescue capability, inability to nominally ambulate and return to a lander, especially during early Artemis missions, could have catastrophic consequences. Mapping likelihood and consequence safety risk associated with identified injury scenarios establishes a baseline from which to assess potential mitigation solutions to ensure crew health and safety. Causes leading to the need for incapacitated crew rescue (ICR) during EVA on the lunar surface were previously identified and classified using an ICR/Acute Injury scenario spectrum. Severe scenarios are those when the affected astronaut requires either partial or full continuous assistance from the rescuer. Evaluation of these continual reliance conditions included calculating event probabilities (likelihoods) associated with an early Artemis mission and mapping them to established Exploration System Directorate (ESD) probability thresholds; safety consequences were analyzed and correlated to defined ESD personnel safety categories. These resulting likelihood and consequence values served as a baseline for assessing risk reduction of three mitigation capabilities: crew assistance (rescuer crew) only, walking assist devices, and a wheeled transport device. Of the twenty-five continual reliance conditions, ten were evaluated as “catastrophic” (Level 5, loss of life) during EVA on the lunar surface with probabilities ranging from moderate to very low during an early Artemis mission. Crew assistance only and walking assist devices showed similar potential for risk reduction, with four of the ten causes decreasing to Level 4. A wheeled transport device further increased risk reduction with six of the ten conditions decreasing to Level 4. Given the catastrophic consequence of several identified conditions, assessments should be performed to determine the feasibility of mitigation capabilities. It is currently unknown whether a rescuer astronaut could effectively provide continuous assistance to enable both crew to return safely to the lander from the standpoint of both suit geometry and human performance. Although resulting in an increase in resources, providing a wheeled transport provides the highest risk reduction potential, and walking assist devices may have prevention as well as mitigation benefits.

lunar surface

Consequence and Resilience Modeling for Chemical Supply Chains

The U.S. chemical sector produces more than 70,000 chemicals that are essential material inputs to critical infrastructure systems, such as the energy, public health, and food and agriculture sectors. Disruptions to the chemical sector can potentially cascade to other dependent sectors, resulting in serious national consequences. To address this concern, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) tasked Sandia National Laboratories to develop a predictive consequence modeling and simulation capability for global chemical supply chains. This paper describes that capability , which includes a dynamic supply chain simulation platform called N_ABLE(tm). The paper also presents results from a case study that simulates the consequences of a Gulf Coast hurricane on selected segments of the U.S. chemical sector. The case study identified consequences that include impacted chemical facilities, cascading impacts to other parts of the chemical sector. and estimates of the lengths of chemical shortages and recovery . Overall. these simulation results can DHS prepare for and respond to actual disruptions.

Stamber, Kevin L.

Assessment and Validation of Collision "Consequence" Method of Assessing Orbital Regime Risk Posed by Potential Satellite Conjunctions

Collision risk management theory requires a thorough assessment of both the likelihood and consequence of potential collision events. Satellite conjunction risk assessment has produced a highly-developed theory for assessing the likelihood of collision but neglects to account for the consequences of a given collision. While any collision may compromise the operational survival of a spacecraft, the amount of debris produced by the potential collision, and therefore the degree to which the orbital corridor may be compromised, can vary greatly among satellite conjunctions. Previous studies leveraged work on satellite collision modeling to develop a method to estimate whether a particular collision is likely to produce a relatively large or relatively small amount of resultant debris. The approximation of the number of debris pieces is dependent on a mass estimation process for the secondary objects utilizing the radar cross section of said object. This study examines the validity of the mass estimation process and establishes uncertainty bounds on the secondary object mass, which will be used to best approximate the possible consequences of a potential collision. This process is then applied to a large set of historical conjunctions to assess the frequency at which possible collisions may significantly augment the orbital debris environment in operational spacecraft.

Collision Consequence

Extravehicular Activity on the Lunar Surface: Mapping Mitigation Risk Consequence for Crew Needing Assistance or Rescue

The lunar environment offers unique challenges for human health and safety over the course of performing Extravehicular Activities (EVAs) during early Artemis missions. Driver medical conditions leading to an injured EVA crewmember needing assistance or rescue were analyzed and correlated to established, defined consequence categories. Catastrophic Drivers were identified, and three mitigation strategies were analyzed to determine if there was a potential change in consequence with their application. Risk consequence across the mitigations were compared with each other and the original risk without mitigations. Mitigations were further evaluated in a broader context with prospective preventions to understand the design and risk trade space associated with an early Artemis EVA.

Risk

Extravehicular Activity on the Lunar Surface: Mapping Mitigation Risk Consequence for Crew Needing Assistance or Rescue

The lunar environment offers unique challenges for human health and safety over the course of performing Extravehicular Activities (EVAs) during early Artemis missions. Driver medical conditions leading to an injured EVA crewmember needing assistance or rescue were analyzed and correlated to established, defined consequence categories. Catastrophic Drivers were identified, and three mitigation strategies were analyzed to determine if there was a potential change in consequence with their application. Risk consequence across the mitigations were compared with each other and the original risk without mitigations. Mitigations were further evaluated in a broader context with prospective preventions to understand the design and risk trade space associated with an early Artemis EVA.

Risk

Consideration of Collision "Consequence" in Satellite Conjunction Assessment and Risk Analysis

Classic risk management theory requires the assessment of both likelihood and consequence of deleterious events. Satellite conjunction risk assessment has produced a highly-developed theory for assessing collision likelihood but holds a completely static solution for collision consequence, treating all potential collisions as essentially equally worrisome. This may be true for the survival of the protected asset, but the amount of debris produced by the potential collision, and therefore the degree to which the orbital corridor may be compromised, can vary greatly among satellite conjunctions. This study leverages present work on satellite collision modeling to develop a method by which it can be estimated, to a particular confidence level, whether a particular collision is likely to produce a relatively large or relatively small amount of resultant debris and how this datum might alter conjunction remediation decisions. The more general question of orbital corridor protection is also addressed, and a preliminary framework presented by which both collision likelihood and consequence can be jointly considered in the risk assessment process.

Hejduk, M.

State of the Carbon Cycle - Consequences of Rising Atmospheric CO2

The rise of atmospheric CO2, largely attributable to human activity through fossil fuel emissions and land-use change, has been dampened by carbon uptake by the ocean and terrestrial biosphere. We outline the consequences of this carbon uptake as direct and indirect effects on terrestrial and oceanic systems and processes for different regions of North America and the globe. We assess the capacity of these systems to continue to act as carbon sinks. Rising CO2 has decreased seawater pH; this process of ocean acidification has impacted some marine species and altered fundamental ecosystem processes with further effects likely. In terrestrial ecosystems, increased atmospheric CO2 causes enhanced photosynthesis, net primary production, and increased water-use efficiency. Rising CO2 may change vegetation composition and carbon storage, and widespread increases in water use efficiency likely influence terrestrial hydrology and biogeochemical cycling. Consequences for human populations include changes to ecosystem services including cultural activities surrounding land use, agricultural or harvesting practices. Commercial fish stocks have been impacted and crop production yields have been changed as a result of rising CO2. Ocean and terrestrial effects are contingent on, and feedback to, global climate change. Warming and modified precipitation regimes impact a variety of ecosystem processes, and the combination of climate change and rising CO2 contributes considerable uncertainty to forecasting carbon sink capacity in the ocean and on land. Disturbance regime (fire and insects) are modified with increased temperatures. Fire frequency and intensity increase, and insect lifecycles are disrupted as temperatures move out of historical norms. Changes in disturbance patterns modulate the effects of rising CO2 depending on ecosystem type, disturbance frequency, and magnitude of events. We discuss management strategies designed to limit the rise of atmospheric CO2 and reduce uncertainty in forecasts of decadal and centennial feedbacks of rising atmospheric CO2 on carbon storage.

Carbon Cycle

Mapping Mitigation Risk Consequence for Crew Needing Assistance or Rescue on the Lunar Surface

Extravehicular activity (EVA) on the lunar surface presents unique risks to crew with possibility for injury. Without appropriate assistance or rescue capability, inability to nominally ambulate and return to a lander, especially during early Artemis missions, could have catastrophic consequences. Mapping likelihood and consequence safety risk associated with identified injury scenarios establishes a baseline from which to assess potential mitigation solutions to ensure crew health and safety.

lunar surface

Elevated central venous pressure: A consequence of exercise training-induced hypervolemia

Resting plasma volumes, and arterial and central venous pressures (CVP) were measured in 16 men before and after exercise training to determine if training-induced hypervolemia could be explained by a change in total vascular capacitance. In addition, resting levels of plasma vasopressin (AVP), atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP), aldosterone (ALD), and norepinephrine (NE) were measured before and after training. The same measurements of vacular volume, pressures, and plasma hormones were measured in 8 subjects who did not undergo exercise and acted as controls. The exercise training program consisted of 10 weeks of controlled cycle exercise for 30 min/d, 4 d/wk at 75 to 80 percent of maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max). A training effect was verified by a 20 percent increase in VO2max, a resting bradycardia, and a 370 ml (9 percent) increase in blood volume. Mean arterial blood pressure was unaltered by exercise training, but resting CVP increased. The percent change in blood volume from before to after training was linearly related to the percent change in CVP. As a consequence of elevations in both blood volume and CVP, the volume-to-pressure ratio was essentially unchanged following exercise training. Plasma AVP, ANP, ALD, and NE were unaltered. Results indicate that elevated CVP is a consequence of training-induced hypervolemia without alteration in total effective venous capacitance. This may represent a resetting of the pressure-volume stimulus-response relation for regulation of blood volume.

Convertino, Victor A.

Consequences of a hydrous mantle for Venus tectonics - Predictions for Magellan

The consequences of a Venus mantle enriched in water relative to the earth are considered. If the moon-forming impact hypothesis is correct, earth may have lost substantial volatiles. Venus, however, experienced no such impact and is therefore likely to be relatively more water-rich. It is demonstrated that a higher abundance of water in the Venus mantle has the effect of inhibiting the rise of crust-forming melts and volatiles to the surface, which results in a thin stable crust, a dry, stiff upper mantle, and restricted magmatism. Conduction through a shallow thermal lithosphere dominates the removal of heat from the interior, and flow in the mantle is strongly coupled to the surface deformation. Current observations of Venus are consistent with this model. A review of the consequences of this model makes it possible to make predictions for the Magellan radar images.

Williams, David R.

Possible observational consequences of primordial binaries in globular clusters

The paper investigates the observational consequences of the evolution of a primordial binary population in a globular cluster. For those binary systems which begin mass transfer at orbital periods of less than about 1 d, the system is expected to evolve to a contact binary stage and to eventually merge to form a single star. At longer orbital periods, the binary system will enter into a common envelope stage. For periods less than about 10 d, the system is likely to merge, and the outcome of the evolution is a single red giant star. For systems characterized by orbital periods greater than about 15 d, a detached red dwarf-white dwarf binary system is expected to change. As a consequence of the mergers, a range in masses for the red giant stars is possible, leading to a color spread on the RGB of the color magnitude diagram. The luminosity function of stars at high luminosities is expected to steepen as a result of tidal interaction in the binary. It is suggested that the formation of cataclysmic variables via primordial binaries is expected only in loosely bound clusters of low-velocity dispersion.

Taam, Ronald E.

Near-Sun solar wind consequences of solar structure and dynamic phenomena observed by radio scintillation measurements

Since radio propagation measurements using either natural or spacecraft radio signals are used for probing the solar wind in the vicinity of the sun, they represent a key tool for studying the interplanetary consequences of solar structure and dynamic phenomena. New information on the near sun consequences was obtained from radio scintillation observations of coherent spacecraft signals. The results covering density fluctuations, fractional density fluctuations, coronal streamers, heliospheric current sheets, coronal mass ejections and interplanetary shocks are reviewed. A joint ICE S-band (13 cm wavelength) Doppler scintillation measurement with the SOHO white-light coronograph (LASCO) is described.

Woo, Richard

Tests and consequences of disk plus halo models of gamma-ray burst sources

The gamma-ray burst observations made by the Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) and by previous experiments are still consistent with a combined Galactic disk (or Galactic spiral arm) plus extended Galactic halo model. Testable predictions and consequences of the disk plus halo model are discussed here; tests performed on the expanded BATSE database in the future will constrain the allowed model parameters and may eventually rule out the disk plus halo model. Using examples, it is shown that if the halo has an appropriate edge, BATSE will never detect an anisotropic signal from the halo of the Andromeda galaxy. A prediction of the disk plus halo model is that the fraction of the bursts observed to be in the 'disk' population rises as the detector sensitivity improves. A careful reexamination of the numbers of bursts in the two populations for the pre-BATSE databases could rule out this class of models. Similarly, it is predicted that different satellites will observe different relative numbers of bursts in the two classes for any model in which there are two different spatial distribiutions of the sources, or for models in which there is one spatial distribution of the sources that is sampled to different depths for the two classes. An important consequence of the disk plus halo model is that for the birthrate of the halo sources to be small compared to the birthrate of the disk sources, it is necessary for the halo sources to release many orders of magnitude more energy over their bursting lifetime than the disk sources. The halo bursts must also be much more luminous than the disk bursts; if this disk-halo model is correct, it is necessary to explain why the disk sources do not produce halo-type bursts.

Smith, I. A.

The sympathetic nervous system and the physiologic consequences of spaceflight: a hypothesis

Many of the physiologic consequences of weightlessness and the cardiovascular abnormalities on return from space could be due, at least in part, to alterations in the regulation of the autonomic nervous system. In this article, the authors review the rationale and evidence for an autonomic mediation of diverse changes that occur with spaceflight, including the anemia and hypovolemia of weightlessness and the tachycardia and orthostatic intolerance on return from space. This hypothesis is supported by studies of two groups of persons known to have low catecholamine levels: persons subjected to prolonged bedrest and persons with syndromes characterized by low circulating catecholamines (Bradbury-Eggleston syndrome and dopamine beta-hydroxylase deficiency). Both groups exhibit the symptoms mentioned. The increasing evidence that autonomic mechanisms underlie many of the physiologic consequences of weightlessness suggests that new pharmacologic approaches (such as administration of beta-blockers and/or sympathomimetic amines) based on these findings may attenuate these unwanted effects.

short duration