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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Simulation Evaluation of a Large-Scale Implementation of Virtual-Phase Link-Based Model Predictive Control

Traffic congestion is a serious problem in the US, and traffic signal control is one of the effective solutions to congestion. Previous research on model predictive control (MPC)-based traffic signal control showed substantial benefits over conventional methods. This study focused on implementing MPC over a large-scale network with complex intersections and the impact of cycle length, network size, and imperfect state estimation on performances. This study implemented a virtual phase link (VPL)-based model predictive control method which used the number of vehicles in each VPL as input state variables and was suitable for National Electrical Manufacturing Association (NEMA) ring-barrier control. To test the impact of network size, the performance of distributed MPC (36 intersections in the network are divided into five subnetworks) was compared with that of MPC over the full network for a set of cycle lengths. To test the impact of imperfect state estimation, we synthetically infused estimation error and developed two scenarios, MPC-error and MPC-error narrow, which had higher and lower estimation errors, respectively. The performance of these MPC methods was compared with that of the existing time-of-day (TOD) method and an offline method that used Webster's method for split and MULTIBAND for cycle length and offset optimization. Trajectory and linkwise signal performance measures were collected from the simulation to evaluate performance. The distributed MPC method with perfect state estimation had the lowest delay and highest energy efficiency of all the methods. The performance of MPC decreased as the prediction inaccuracy increased. MPC-error had 7% and 11% more delay than MPC-error narrow in the morning and evening peaks, respectively. Overall, simulation results suggest that even with imperfect state estimation, MPC methods will outperform offline methods significantly.

large-scale simulation↗
DOE OSTI2024

EV Forecasting-Based Model Predictive Control for Distribution System Congestion Mitigation

The uncoordinated charging of electric vehicles (EVs) in time and space brings congestion issues to the distribution network. This paper proposes an EV charging demand forecasting-based model predictive control (MPC) method for distribution system congestion management. To effectively forecast the time-series EV station charging demand, a hybrid forecasting model that integrates the long short-term memory network (LSTM) and Transformer is proposed. The Transformer-LSTM model is trained using a one-year real historical charging dataset of EV stations to forecast future charging demand in 15-minute intervals. This informs the MPC for distribution network congestion management and minimization of PV curtailment. Numerical results carried out on the modified IEEE 123-bus distribution system demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively resolve line congestion issues through EV smart charging and PV curtailment while outperforming other benchmarks.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reducing Urban Traffic Congestion Using Deep Learning and Model Predictive Control

This article proposes a deep learning (DL)-based control algorithm—DL velocity-based model predictive control (VMPC)—for reducing traffic congestion with slowly time-varying traffic signal controls. This control algorithm consists of system identification using DL and traffic signal control using VMPC. For the training process of DL, we established a modeling error entropy loss as the criteria inspired by the theory of stochastic distribution control (SDC) originated by the fourth author. Herein, simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can reduce traffic congestion with a slowly varying traffic signal control input. Results of an ablation study demonstrate that this algorithm compares favorably to other model-based controllers in terms of prediction error, signal varying speed, and control effectiveness.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

MEP Core Tools

This slide deck provides an update on the progress of the project titled "MEP Core Tools" funded by the Energy Efficient Mobility Systems program in the Vehicle Technologies Office at the Department of Energy.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

High-dimensional Data-driven Energy optimization for Multi-Modal Transit Agencies (HD-EMMA) (Final Technical Report)

Public bus transit services in the U.S. are responsible for at least 19.7 million metric tons of CO 2 emission annually. Electric vehicles (EVs) can have a much lower environmental impact than comparable internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), especially in urban areas. Unfortunately, EVs are also much more expensive than ICEVs. As a result, many public transit agencies can afford only mixed fleets of transit vehicles, consisting of EVs, hybrids (HEVs), and ICEVs. Transit agencies that operate such mixed fleets of vehicles face a challenging optimization problem: these agencies need to decide which vehicles are assigned to serving which transit trips. Since the advantage of EVs over ICEVs varies depending on the route and time of day (e.g., the benefit of EVs is higher in slower traffic with frequent stops and lower on highways), the assignment can have a significant effect on energy use and, hence, environmental impact. Through this project, we have developed reference data about energy collections and constructed a set of machine learning models that can accurately predict the energy consumption for the whole fleet at the level of each trip. We have used these models to develop a scheduling and assignment strategy that can rotate the different vehicle types across the transit agencies’ routes. The optimization algorithm ensures that the vehicles are matched to trips considering weather patterns, expected congestion, and road gradients to minimize the overall energy usage. We list the key observations from our project for other practitioners below. Details are available in the report, and the list of source code and our publications are included in the appendix. 1. We have demonstrated the feasibility of collecting, merging and analyzing large volumes of high-resolution real-world telemetry data from a mixed vehicle fleet. To mitigate the inherent noise of the recorded GPS points, the team developed an algorithm that filters data and maps the points onto a street. The algorithm considers previous and subsequent location measurements and different characteristics of nearby streets to determine how likely the vehicle travels on them. Then, the team segmented the time series into disjoint contiguous samples based on adjacent road segments and repeated the outlier detection and removal. For each data point, the team added features corresponding to elevation changes within the samples, weather features, such as temperature, and traffic data, such as speed ratio between actual speed and free-flow speed. 2. We have developed two forms of machine learning models that be used to understand and analyze the energy operations of a mixed vehicle transit fleet. The micro prediction model provides estimates of instantaneous energy prediction for all types of buses (diesel, hybrid, and electric). Such a model is important in evaluating the energy impacts of real-time bus operation strategies, but it is challenging due to diversified driving cycles of transit buses. The model can help the drivers understand the impact of their driving behaviors and short-term congestions. The macro prediction models estimate average energy consumption across the whole trip considering the features: distance traveled, various road-type features, elevation change, day of the week, time of day, various weather features (temperature, humidity, etc.), and traffic features (speed ratio and jam factor). 3. We have demonstrated that it is possible to transfer the machine learning models we have developed in this project to other teams and cities by using inductive transfer learning. We also showed that the performance of the macro energy prediction models can be improved using a multi-task learning approach where the learning parameters are shared between the models being developed for different vehicle types. The advantage of this approach is improved learning performance as the models can exploit common spatio-temporal and environmental characteristics. 4. Finally, we have developed trip and vehicle assignment and scheduling algorithms that use the energy prediction models and develop a trip to vehicle type (diesel, electric, hybrid) assignment for the whole operation to reduce overall emissions and cost. We have shown through simulations that the proposed algorithms can save $\$$ 48,910 in energy costs and 175 metric tons of CO 2 emission annually for CARTA.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Spatiotemporal Prediction Model for Regional Scheduling of Shared Bicycles Based on the INLA Method

Dock-less bicycle-sharing programs have been widely accepted as an efficient mode to benefit health and reduce congestions. And modeling and prediction has always been a core proposition in the field of transportation. Most of the existing demand prediction models for shared bikes take regions as research objects; therefore, a POI-based method can be a beneficial complement to existing research, including zone-level, OD-level, and station-level techniques. Point of interest (POI) is the location description of spatial entities, which can reflect the cycling route characteristics for both commuting and noncommuting trips to a certain extent, and is also the main generating point and attraction point of shared-bike travel flow. In this study, we make an effort to model a POI-level cycling demand with a Bayesian hierarchical method. The proposed model combines the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) and random partial differential equation (SPDE) to cope with the huge computation in the modeling process. In particular, we have adopted the dock-less bicycle-sharing rental records of Mobike as a case study to validate our method; the study area was one of the fastest growing urban districts in Shanghai in August 2016. The operation results show that the method can help better understand, measure, and characterize spatiotemporal patterns of bike-share ridership at the POI level and quantify the impact of the spatiotemporal effect on bicycle-sharing use.

Yu, Zhuoran↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deep Learning-Based Queue-Aware Eco-Approach and Departure System for Plug-In Hybrid Electric Buses at Signalized Intersections: A Simulation Study

Eco-Approach and Departure (EAD) has been considered as a promising eco-driving strategy for vehicles traveling in an urban environment, where information such as signal phase and timing (SPaT) and geometric intersection description is well utilized to guide vehicles passing through intersections in the most energy-efficient manner. Previous studies formulated the optimal trajectory planning problem as finding the shortest path on a graphical model. While this method is effective in terms of energy saving, its computation efficiency can be further enhanced by adopting machine learning techniques. In this paper, we propose an innovative deep learning-based queue-aware eco-approach and departure (DLQ-EAD) system for a plug-in hybrid electric bus (PHEB), which is able to provide an online optimal trajectory for the vehicle considering both the downstream traffic condition (i.e. traffic lights, queues) and the vehicle powertrain efficiency. Based on optimal solutions obtained from the graph-based trajectory planning algorithm (GTPA), a deep neural network (DNN) is developed to learn the optimal vehicle speed for the next time step given its current state. It is demonstrated that the trained DNN can provide energy-efficient trajectories with high computational efficiency and high flexibility adopting to dynamic changes in the surrounding environment. To address the impact of downstream traffic, a queue prediction model is further developed using data from radars and connected vehicles (CVs), as well as signal timing data from SPaT messages. A comprehensive simulation study in the microscopic traffic modeling software PTV VISSIM shows that the proposed DLQ-EAD can achieve 18.7%-24.0% energy efficiency improvements for a single PHEB on various traffic congestion levels. The proposed queue prediction model can be of practical significance even at low penetration rates of CVs. Specifically, additional energy savings of 2.0%-8.2% can be further achieved with 20% vehicles in the network.

Ye, Fei↗
DOE OSTI2018

Road Network State Estimation Using Random Forest Ensemble Learning

Network-scale travel time prediction not only enables traffic management centers (TMC) to proactively implement traffic management strategies, but also allows travelers make informed decisions about route choices between various origins and destinations. In this paper, a random forest estimator was proposed to predict travel time in a network. The estimator was trained using two years of historical travel time data for a case study network in St. Louis, Missouri. Both temporal and spatial effects were considered in the modeling process. The random forest models predicted travel times accurately during both congested and uncongested traffic conditions. The computational times for the models were low, thus useful for real-time traffic management and traveler information applications.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
NASA NTRS2012

Effect of Uncertainty on Deterministic Runway Scheduling

Active runway scheduling involves scheduling departures for takeoffs and arrivals for runway crossing subject to numerous constraints. This paper evaluates the effect of uncertainty on a deterministic runway scheduler. The evaluation is done against a first-come- first-serve scheme. In particular, the sequence from a deterministic scheduler is frozen and the times adjusted to satisfy all separation criteria; this approach is tested against FCFS. The comparison is done for both system performance (throughput and system delay) and predictability, and varying levels of congestion are considered. The modeling of uncertainty is done in two ways: as equal uncertainty in availability at the runway as for all aircraft, and as increasing uncertainty for later aircraft. Results indicate that the deterministic approach consistently performs better than first-come-first-serve in both system performance and predictability.

Gupta, Gautam↗
DOE OSTI2024

Enriching OpenStreetMap network data for transportation applications: Insights into the impact of urban congestion on accessibility

OpenStreetMap (OSM) data is a valuable open-source resource for various transportation, traffic, and planning applications. However, OSM network data lack operating traffic speed information, which is critical for transport planning and operations. Addressing this shortcoming, this study leverages commercial vendor data (to serve as ground truth) with exogenous, open-source variables characterizing local transport infrastructure, land use, and demographic information to predict average congested traffic speeds on OSM networks. Three machine-learning models were tested and estimated for OSM links with and without speed limit information in the Denver metropolitan region. Among these, XGBoost performed best, with mean absolute errors of 3.27 and 3.62 mph for links with and without speed limits, respectively. The developed models accurately predicted traffic speeds for different hours and days of the week compared to ground truth data. Using these predicted speeds, drive accessibility scores were computed for the Denver region for different time periods using the Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) metric to understand the impact of congestion on energy-efficient accessibility. Results show that congestion-adjusted drive accessibility can be significantly lower compared to accessibility calculated using free flow speeds. Specifically, weekday evening hours saw a 42 % drop in accessibility due to reduced speeds, particularly around downtown Denver. Across the Denver metro region, approximately half as many opportunities and jobs are accessible in under 20 min by car during the evening peak period relative to free flow conditions. These findings underscore the importance of using congestion-adjusted operating speeds rather than speed limits in accessibility calculations, as reliance on speed limits can substantially overestimate energy-efficient drive accessibility in large, car-centric cities susceptible to significant congestion. In conclusion, the methodology presented here could further enrich OSM network data, making them useful for an even broader range of transportation applications.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling Relative Trajectory Costs for Airborne Trajectory Reroutes using Trajectory Option Sets

As part of the Increasing Diverse Operations Project (IDO), the Trajectory Options Program (TOS), which was introduced with the Collaborative Trajectory Options Program, is used in a novel way to help reroute airborne aircraft. Different trajectories in this TOS are ranked by a Relative Trajectory Cost (RTC) which had to be adapted from its original use expressing ground delay, into expressing costs in a dollar value to adapt to aircraft being airborne. For this, a set of models consisting of the parameters Fuel, Crew, Airspace and Downstream Congestion cost, has been developed in an attempt to represent linear and non-linear behavior of airline delay costs. While Fuel and Airspace Cost in this model increase linearly, the Parameter Crew consists of three subset factors which leverage an underlying Crew-Placement algorithm using the IDO scenario to model non-linearity. The parameter Downstream Congestion attempts to predict delay in minutes by looking at sector overload for each sector a selected trajectory passes through.

automation↗
NASA NTRS2012

Comparison of Predictive Modeling Methods of Aircraft Landing Speed

Expected increases in air traffic demand have stimulated the development of air traffic control tools intended to assist the air traffic controller in accurately and precisely spacing aircraft landing at congested airports. Such tools will require an accurate landing-speed prediction to increase throughput while decreasing necessary controller interventions for avoiding separation violations. There are many practical challenges to developing an accurate landing-speed model that has acceptable prediction errors. This paper discusses the development of a near-term implementation, using readily available information, to estimate/model final approach speed from the top of the descent phase of flight to the landing runway. As a first approach, all variables found to contribute directly to the landing-speed prediction model are used to build a multi-regression technique of the response surface equation (RSE). Data obtained from operations of a major airlines for a passenger transport aircraft type to the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport are used to predict the landing speed. The approach was promising because it decreased the standard deviation of the landing-speed error prediction by at least 18% from the standard deviation of the baseline error, depending on the gust condition at the airport. However, when the number of variables is reduced to the most likely obtainable at other major airports, the RSE model shows little improvement over the existing methods. Consequently, a neural network that relies on a nonlinear regression technique is utilized as an alternative modeling approach. For the reduced number of variables cases, the standard deviation of the neural network models errors represent over 5% reduction compared to the RSE model errors, and at least 10% reduction over the baseline predicted landing-speed error standard deviation. Overall, the constructed models predict the landing-speed more accurately and precisely than the current state-of-the-art.

Diallo, Ousmane H.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Impacts of Travel Demand Information Diffusion on Reducing Empty Vehicle Miles Traveled by Ridesourcing Vehicles

Ride-hailing or ride-sourcing services provide alternative mobility options in several cities and have seen exponential growth in market share owing to the convenience they provide. Even though usage of such services may be associated with car-light and car-free lifestyles, there are growing concerns around their impact on urban transportation network operations due to empty miles driven without a passenger (deadheading). This study is motivated by the potential for reducing deadhead mileage by providing information on future trip demand to ride-sourcing drivers (at the destination end of their current trip). Future trip demand information enables the driver to wait in place for the next rider without cruising around and contributing to congestion. A machine learning model is applied using historical data to predict hourly and 10-minute future interval demand for ride-sourcing. Two heuristic algorithms have been developed to i) determine drivers that act on demand information received by waiting in place for the next rider, and ii) match drivers who wait to their next trip by minimizing deadheading distance. Data from ride-sourcing providers in Austin, Texas (RideAustin) and in Chengdu, China (DiDi) are leveraged to apply the methodology. Results show that the process results in 68%-82% and 53%-60% trip-level deadheading miles reduction for RideAustin and DiDi sample operations, respectively. As the maximum tolerable driver's waiting time increases, deadheading savings slightly increase. Even if the maximum percentage of drivers waiting is reduced, significant average deadheading savings by trip can be achieved for that portion.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ising-Traffic: Using Ising Machine Learning to Predict Traffic Congestion under Uncertainty

This paper addresses the challenges in accurate and realtime traffic congestion prediction with uncertainty by proposing Ising-Traffic, a novel quantum-inspired dual-model Ising based traffic prediction framework which delivers higher accuracy and lower latency than SOTA solutions. While traditional and deep learning methods face the trade-off between algorithm complexity and computational efficiency, our Ising-based method leverages Ising’s inherent and unique capability of finding the state of a system with the lowest energy and applying it to traffic prediction. In this work, traffic prediction under uncertainty is formulated into two separate Ising models: Reconstruct-Ising and Predict-Ising. Reconstruct-Ising is mapped onto modern Ising machine and handles uncertainty in traffic accurately with negligible latency and energy consumption, while Predict-Ising is mapped onto traditional processors and predicts future congestion precisely with only at most 1.8% computational demands of existing solutions. Our evaluation shows Ising-Traffic delivers on average 98× speedups and 5% accuracy improvement over SOTA.

traffic flow control, Ising↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis and prediction of intersection traffic violations using automated enforcement system data

We report that the automated enforcement system (AES) is an effective way of supplementing traditional traffic enforcement, and the traffic violation data from AES can also be effectively used for safety research. In this study, traffic violation data were used to analyze the influencing factors associated with traffic violations and to predict the probability of violations at intersections. The potential factors influencing violations include 24 independent factors related to time, space, traffic and weather. Results from a logistic model showed that the midday period, weekends, residential districts, collector roads, congested traffic conditions, high traffic flow, lower wind speed and low temperature would increase the probability of traffic violations. The probability of violations was predicted by the random forest algorithm, which was proven to be the best traffic violation prediction model among logistic regression, Gaussian naive Bayes, and support vector machine. Moreover, the proximity weighted synthetic oversampling technique (ProWSyn) method was applied to reduce the impact of the imbalance ratio (IR) and improve the model’s prediction performance. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves and Precision-Recall (PR) curves illustrated that the random forest algorithm using oversampling data had the best classifier prediction performance than undersampling data. The area under curve (AUC) and out-of-bag (OOB) error with IR = 1 reached 0.914 and 0.0787, which showed the better performance of the random forest algorithm using ProWSyn in dealing with imbalanced traffic violation data.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS2003

Runway Independent Aircraft Extremely Short Takeoff and Landing Regional Airliner: The Model 110

Airports throughout the United States are plagued with growing congestion. With the increase in air traffic predicted in the next few years, congestion will worsen. The accepted solution of building larger airplanes to carry more travelers is no longer a viable option, as airports are unable to accommodate larger aircraft without expensive infrastructure changes. Past NASA research has pointed to the need for a new approach, which can economically and safely utilize smaller airports. To study this option further, NASA requested the California Polytechnic State University at San Luis Obispo (Cal Poly/SLO) to design a baseline aircraft to be used for system studies. The requirements put forth by NASA are summarized. The design team was requested to create a demonstrator vehicle, which could be built without requiring enabling technology development. To this end, NASA requested that the tested and proven high-lift system of the Boeing C-17 Globemaster III be combined with the fuselage of the BAe-146. NASA also requested that Cal Poly determine the availability and usability of underutilized airports starting with California, then expanding if time and funds permitted to the U.S.

Hall, David W.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Analysis of Flight Management System Predictions of Idle-Thrust Descents

To enable arriving aircraft to fly optimized descents computed by the flight management system (FMS) in congested airspace, ground automation must accurately predict descent trajectories. To support development of the predictor and its uncertainty models, descents from cruise to the meter fix were executed using vertical navigation in a B737-700 simulator and a B777-200 simulator, both with commercial FMSs. For both aircraft types, the FMS computed the intended descent path for a specified speed profile assuming idle thrust after top of descent (TOD), and then it controlled the avionics without human intervention. The test matrix varied aircraft weight, descent speed, and wind conditions. The first analysis in this paper determined the effect of the test matrix parameters on the FMS computation of TOD location, and it compared the results to those for the current ground predictor in the Efficient Descent Advisor (EDA). The second analysis was similar but considered the time to fly a specified distance to the meter fix. The effects of the test matrix variables together with the accuracy requirements for the predictor will determine the allowable error for the predictor inputs. For the B737, the EDA prediction of meter fix crossing time agreed well with the FMS; but its prediction of TOD location probably was not sufficiently accurate to enable idle-thrust descents in congested airspace, even though the FMS and EDA gave similar shapes for TOD location as a function of the test matrix variables. For the B777, the FMS and EDA gave different shapes for the TOD location function, and the EDA prediction of the TOD location is not accurate enough to fully enable the concept. Furthermore, the differences between the FMS and EDA predictions of meter fix crossing time for the B777 indicated that at least one of them was not sufficiently accurate.

Stell, Laurel↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hierarchical Speed Planner for Automated Vehicles: A Framework for Lagrangian Variable Speed Limit in Mixed-Autonomy Traffic

Here, this article presents a novel hierarchical speed planning framework for variable speed limits in mixed-autonomy traffic environments, leveraging server-side macroscopic control and vehicle-side microscopic execution. The framework integrates real-time traffic state estimation (TSE) and reinforcement learning (RL)-based control to mitigate congestion and improve traffic flow. A TSE enhancement module combines macroscopic data from sources like INRIX with high-resolution observations from connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs), enabling predictive modeling to address latency and noise. The target speed design module employs kernel smoothing and a buffer zone strategy to optimize traffic density and flow around bottlenecks. The proposed system was validated in the largest open-road test to date with 100 CAVs, demonstrating an overall 8% traffic density decrease, with a specific decrease of 7% upstream, 10% downstream, and a 52% decrease during the congestion formation phase at bottlenecks.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗