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At least 19 records

The quiet time polar cap - DE 1 observations and conceptual model

A conceptual merging model of the magnetosphere is developed which explains DE-1 observations on polar cap plasmas and waves made during a quiet period with a northward IMF when multiple adjacent regions of sunward and antisunward convection were observed. The model involves dayside merging both at high latitudes on open field lines (the usual northward IMF merging) and at lower latitudes on closed field lines. The ratio between the merged flux produced by the high-latitude merging to that produced by the lower-latitude merging increases as the IMF becomes more northward.

Burch, J. L.↗

Implications of Simulation Conceptual Model Development for Simulation Management and Uncertainty Assessment

A simulation conceptual model is a simulation developers way of translating modeling requirements (i. e., what is to be represented by the simulation or its modification) into a detailed design framework (i. e., how it is to be done), from which the software, hardware, networks (in the case of distributed simulation), and systems/equipment that will make up the simulation can be built or modified. A conceptual model is the collection of information which describes a simulation developers concept about the simulation and its pieces. That information consists of assumptions, algorithms, characteristics, relationships, and data. Taken together, these describe how the simulation developer understands what is to be represented by the simulation (entities, actions, tasks, processes, interactions, etc.) and how that representation will satisfy the requirements to which the simulation responds. Thus the conceptual model is the basis for judgment about simulation fidelity and validity for any condition that is not specifically tested. The more perspicuous and precise the conceptual model, the more likely it is that the simulation development will both fully satisfy requirements and allow demonstration that the requirements are satisfied (i. e., validation). Methods used in simulation conceptual model development have significant implications for simulation management and for assessment of simulation uncertainty. This paper suggests how to develop and document a simulation conceptual model so that the simulation fidelity and validity can be most effectively determined. These ideas for conceptual model development apply to all simulation varieties. The paper relates these ideas to uncertainty assessments as they relate to simulation fidelity and validity. The paper also explores implications for simulation management from conceptual model development methods, especially relative to reuse of simulation components.

Pace, Dale K.↗

Conceptual Model Update of Mercury Sources and Flux at Y-12 and Upper East Fork Poplar Creek, Oak Ridge,Tennessee

The interactions between the key processes that control the fate and transport of mercury (Hg) in the sediments, groundwater, and stream water within the Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12) in Oak Ridge, Tennessee are complex, and many aspects are not well understood. In contaminated environments such as Y-12, conceptual models are frequently developed to aid in visualizing and understanding the dynamic nature of the hydrologic, geochemical, and physical environment. These conceptual models integrate data in an internally consistent manner to understand processes that control the fate and transport of contaminants. Over the past few decades of environmental investigation at Y-12, a number of conceptual models have been developed to identify and define various technical processes at various scales. The main purpose of the activities described in this report is to update the 2011 conceptual model for Upper East Fork Poplar Creek using the most recent Hg concentration and flux data and informed scientific interpretation. Emphasis was placed on improving the previous model by implementing a more detailed spatial and temporal approach to visualize transport pathways in the watershed and trends in flux and concentration over time, and to compare baseflow and stormflow system dynamics. Detailed descriptions of historical and current Hg sources and transport pathways are also provided for the east and west ends of the facility. This conceptual model will allow the US Department of Energy to evaluate past and present remedial activities and provide a strong technical basis for prioritizing and optimizing remedial responses in a cost-effective and efficient manner. Twenty years ago, Hg flux from Outfall (OF) 200 at the headwaters of East Fork Poplar Creek represented approximately 20% of the overall flux leaving Y-12. By the time of the 2011 conceptual model report, that percentage had increased to 70%–80%. Flux estimates compiled for this report using data from 2009 to 2018 show that OF200 accounted for roughly 60% of the flux leaving Y-12. The relative role of the four storm drain conduits to OF200 appeared similar to 2011, with OF163 being the greatest contributor to downstream flux. An increase in Hg concentrations and flux occurred throughout and downstream of west end storm drains in 2011 in response to a storm drain cleanout. Leading up to the 2011 storm drain cleanout, annual baseflow flux was higher at OF200A6 than at Station 17. From 2011 to 2018, the trend reversed with concentrations and flux being higher at Station 17 than at OF200A6. A spike in concentrations occurred in July 2018, potentially due to a one-time influx of Hg that occurred during COLEX decontamination and decommissioning activities at Y-12. This report includes recommendations for improving our conceptual understanding of Hg sources, transport pathways, and flux at Y-12. Important recommendations include further evaluation of transport pathways, concurrent measurement of Hg concentration and flux under baseflow and stormflow conditions at multiple sites, and research to understand the connections among periphyton and methylmercury concentration, bioavailability, and bioaccumulation. Ongoing facility decontamination and decommissioning efforts, site characterization, remedial actions, and research are facilitating the collection of new Hg data at Y-12. The conceptual model update provided herein takes advantage of the extensive recent Hg sampling to provide an updated assessment of Hg mass balance and support a refined understanding of Hg behavior at or near Y-12. This assessment should assist in future environmental management decisions and in mitigating the impacts of Hg on the surrounding environment.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Conceptual Model of Quantities, Units, Dimensions, and Values

JPL collaborated with experts from industry and other organizations to develop a conceptual model of quantities, units, dimensions, and values based on the current work of the ISO 80000 committee revising the International System of Units & Quantities based on the International Vocabulary of Metrology (VIM). By providing support for ISO 80000 in SysML via the International Vocabulary of Metrology (VIM), this conceptual model provides, for the first time, a standard-based approach for addressing issues of unit coherence and dimensional analysis into the practice of systems engineering with SysML-based tools. This conceptual model provides support for two kinds of analyses specified in the International Vocabulary of Metrology (VIM): coherence of units as well as of systems of units, and dimension analysis of systems of quantities. To provide a solid and stable foundation, the model for defining quantities, units, dimensions, and values in SysML is explicitly based on the concepts defined in VIM. At the same time, the model library is designed in such a way that extensions to the ISQ (International System of Quantities) and SI Units (Systeme International d Unites) can be represented, as well as any alternative systems of quantities and units. The model library can be used to support SysML user models in various ways. A simple approach is to define and document libraries of reusable systems of units and quantities for reuse across multiple projects, and to link units and quantity kinds from these libraries to Unit and QuantityKind stereotypes defined in SysML user models.

Rouquette, Nicolas F.↗

PORFLOW Implementation of Vadose Zone Conceptual Model for Naval Reactor Component Disposal Areas in the E-Area Low Level Waste Facility Performance Assessment

PORFLOW models have been developed to implement the proposed conceptual models for the two Naval Reactor Component Disposal Areas (NRCDAs), 643-7E and 643-26E, for the purpose of evaluating dose impacts and producing disposal limits for the E-Area Low-Level Facility (LLWF). New NRCDA conceptual models were proposed by Wohlwend and Butcher (2019) for two areas within/adjacent to the E-Area LLWF used as storage/disposal sites for reactor components from the U.S. Navy since 1987. Naval Reactor (NR) waste is comprised of highly radioactive components consisting of activated corrosion-resistant metal alloy contained within welded thick-walled steel casks, and auxiliary equipment primarily contaminated with lower levels of Activated Corrosion Products (ACPs) residing on the metal surfaces and contained within thinner-walled bolted containers.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

PORFLOW Implementation of Vadose Zone Conceptual Model for Naval Reactor Component Disposal Area in the E-Area Low Level Waste Facility Performance Assessment

PORFLOW models have been developed to implement the proposed conceptual models for the two Naval Reactor Component Disposal Areas (NRCDAs), 643-7E and 643-26E, for the purpose of evaluating dose impacts and producing disposal limits for the E-Area Low-Level Facility (LLWF). New NRCDA conceptual models were proposed by Wohlwend and Butcher (2019) for two areas within/adjacent to the E-Area LLWF used as storage/disposal sites for reactor components from the U.S. Navy since 1987. Naval Reactor (NR) waste is comprised of highly radioactive components consisting of activated corrosion-resistant metal alloy contained within welded thick-walled steel casks, and auxiliary equipment primarily contaminated with lower levels of Activated Corrosion Products (ACPs) residing on the metal surfaces and contained within thinner-walled bolted containers.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Hawthorne Nevada Deep Direct-Use Feasibility Study - Data Used for Geothermal Resource Conceptual Modeling and Power Capacity Estimates

This data submission includes several data components that were used to develop a conceptual model and power capacity-estimates of two low-temperature geothermal resources that define geothermal prospect A at Hawthorne, Nevada. Data are sourced from a combination of legacy publicly-available data and more recent data acquisition conducted by the US Navy Geothermal Program Office (2008-2013) and the Great Basin Center for Geothermal Energy at the University of Nevada, Reno (2008-2010). Data sets include compiled fluid geochemistry data, down-hole temperature logs for wells in the vicinity of prospect A, 2 meter temperature survey data, temperature-spinner logs acquired in well HWAAD-2A, fracture picks from image log data acquired in wells HWAAD-2 and HWAAD-3, and X-Ray Diffraction (XRD) analyses on cuttings from wells HWAAD-2A and HWAAD-3. These data have been reviewed for errors and inconsistencies, but it is possible that few errors could still remain. The resource conceptual model and power capacity estimates are included in the final report to the US Department of Energy, and are presented in a manuscript by Ayling and Hinz. A link to the manuscript published in Geothermics is linked below in this submission.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Conceptual models of information processing

The conceptual information processing issues are examined. Human information processing is defined as an active cognitive process that is analogous to a system. It is the flow and transformation of information within a human. The human is viewed as an active information seeker who is constantly receiving, processing, and acting upon the surrounding environmental stimuli. Human information processing models are conceptual representations of cognitive behaviors. Models of information processing are useful in representing the different theoretical positions and in attempting to define the limits and capabilities of human memory. It is concluded that an understanding of conceptual human information processing models and their applications to systems design leads to a better human factors approach.

Stewart, L. J.↗

Mapping the Extent of Mangrove Ecosystem Degradation by Integrating an Ecological Conceptual Model with Satellite Data

Anthropogenic and natural disturbances can cause degradation of ecosystems, reducing their capacity to sustain biodiversity and provide ecosystem services. Understanding the extent of ecosystem degradation is critical for estimating risks to ecosystems, yet there are few existing methods to map degradation at the ecosystem scale and none using freely available satellite data for mangrove ecosystems. In this study, we developed a quantitative classification model of mangrove ecosystem degradation using freely available earth observation data. Crucially, a conceptual model of mangrove ecosystem degradation was established to identify suitable remote sensing variables that support the quantitative classification model, bridging the gap between satellite-derived variables and ecosystem degradation with explicit ecological links. We applied our degradation model to two case-studies, the mangroves of Rakhine State, Myanmar, which are severely threatened by anthropogenic disturbances, and Shark River within the Everglades National Park, USA, which is periodically disturbed by severe tropical storms. Our model suggested that 40% (597 km2) of the extent of mangroves in Rakhine showed evidence of degradation. In the Everglades, the model suggested that the extent of degraded mangrove forest increased from 5.1% to 97.4% following the Category 4 Hurricane Irma in 2017. Quantitative accuracy assessments indicated the model achieved overall accuracies of 77.6% and 79.1% for the Rakhine and the Everglades, respectively. We highlight that using an ecological conceptual model as the basis for building quantitative classification models to estimate the extent of ecosystem degradation ensures the ecological relevance of the classification models. Our developed method enables researchers to move beyond only mapping ecosystem distribution to condition and degradation as well. These results can help support ecosystem risk assessments, natural capital accounting, and restoration planning and provide quantitative estimates of ecosystem degradation for new global biodiversity targets.

Calvin K. F. Lee↗

A conceptual model for how to design for building envelope characteristics. Impact of thermal comfort intervals and thermal mass on commercial buildings in U.S. climates

The paper presents a simplified conceptual model for energy demand calculations based on building envelope characteristics, thermal mass and local climate. It is based on a network model and lumped analysis of the dynamic process. Characteristic parameters for the buildings are suggested; Driving temperature (DT), Driving temperature difference, (DTD), External Load Temperature (ELT), and Thermal Load Resistance (TLR). The Building Envelope Performance ( BEP 0 ), based on a controlled constant indoor temperature is introduced. Solution techniques using stable explicit forward differences based on analytical solutions are derived. The conceptual model has been used for mapping the Driving temperature difference and introduced two performance factors and . The first factor represents the effect of thermal comfort interval and thermal mass on the energy demand. The latter represents the ratio between cooling and heating energy demand. These three parameters and factors have been visualized on U.S. maps and enable a possibility to communicate the demand of energy, and cooling and the coupling to building characteristics, in a concise way.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Understanding How Reservoir Operations Influence Methane Emissions: A Conceptual Model

Because methane is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG), understanding controls on methane emissions from reservoirs is an important goal. Yet, reservoirs are complex ecosystems, and mechanisms by which reservoir operations influence methane emissions are poorly understood. In part, this is because emissions occur in ‘hot spots’ and ‘hot moments’. In this study, we address three research questions, ‘What are the causal pathways through which reservoir operations and resulting water level fluctuations (WLF) influence methane emissions?’; ‘How do influences from WLF differ for seasonal drawdown and diurnal hydropeaking operations?’; and ‘How does understanding causal pathways inform practical options for mitigation?’. A graphical conceptual model is presented that links WLF in reservoirs to methane emissions via four causal pathways: (1) water-column mixing (2) drying–rewetting cycles, (3) sediment delivery and redistribution, and (4) littoral vegetation. We review what is known about linkages for WLF at seasonal and diurnal resolutions generate research questions, and hypothesize strategies for moderating methane emissions by interrupting each causal pathway. Those related to flow management involve basin-scale management of tributary flows, seasonal timing of hydropeaking (pathway #1), timing and rates of drawdown (pathway #2). In addition, we describe how sediment (pathway #3) and vegetation management (pathway #4) could interrupt linkages between WLF and emissions. We demonstrate the strength of conceptual modeling as a tool for generating plausible hypotheses and suggesting mitigation strategies. Future research is needed to develop simpler models at appropriate timescales that can be validated and used to manage flow releases from reservoirs.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Numerically Testing Conceptual Models of the Utah FORGE Reservoir Using July 2023 Circulation Test Data

Over the past several years, many new data sets have become available regarding the characterization of the Utah FORGE reservoir. These include, but are not limited to, the stimulation of Well 16A, the drilling and completion of Well 16B, and interwell circulation confirmatory testing. As part of the characterization efforts, conceptual models of the reservoir are re-examined as new data become available. As part of the planning for FORGE activities, numerical models are often used to predict the reservoir response to the planned testing. Stochastic methods are often employed to bound uncertainty and allow for evaluation of comprehensive ranges of key reservoir parameters. For the most recent interwell circulation confirmatory testing (July 2023), a priori numerical model predictions did bound the observed behavior (Xinj et al., 2023), but key deviations from expected behavior prompted the FORGE team to reevaluate our conceptual model of the reservoir. In early October 2023, key members of the development, testing, and monitoring teams met for 2 days to review newly collected data and discuss ‘interesting’ or ‘key’ observations. From these discussions, 15 Key Observations were documented, with several significant ones being that the discrete fracture network developed from the 16A stimulation data may not be appropriate and that the early time pressure data obtained during the summer 2023 reservoir testing were best described using radial solutions. In July 2023, two campaigns of interwell confirmatory testing were conducted, the first set of tests occurred on July 4-5 and the second set on July 18-19. The second set of circulation tests conducted at the Utah FORGE site between the injection well 16A(78)-32 and production well 16B(78)-32 on July 18 and 19, 2023 are used to calibrate material properties in a thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) simulation of the discrete fracture network connecting the wells. The spatially and temporally varying reservoir properties are calibrated to match the time dependent pressure and production profiles from the circulation tests. In future work, this calibrated model will be coupled to the native state THM model of the FORGE reservoir to predict surface deformation and strains resulting from pumping schedules.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Numerically Testing Conceptual Models of the Utah FORGE Reservoir Using July 2024 Circulation Test Data

Over the past several years, many new data sets have become available regarding the characterization of the Utah FORGE reservoir. These include, but are not limited to, the stimulation of Well 16A, the drilling and completion of Well 16B, and interwell circulation confirmatory testing. As part of the characterization efforts, conceptual models of the reservoir are re-examined as new data become available. As part of the planning for FORGE activities, numerical models are often used to predict the reservoir response to the planned testing. Stochastic methods are often employed to bound uncertainty and allow for evaluation of comprehensive ranges of key reservoir parameters. For the most recent interwell circulation confirmatory testing (July 2023), a priori numerical model predictions did bound the observed behavior (Xinj et al., 2023), but key deviations from expected behavior prompted the FORGE team to reevaluate our conceptual model of the reservoir. In early October 2023, key members of the development, testing, and monitoring teams met for 2 days to review newly collected data and discuss ‘interesting’ or ‘key’ observations. From these discussions, 15 Key Observations were documented, with several significant ones being that the discrete fracture network developed from the 16A stimulation data may not be appropriate and that the early time pressure data obtained during the summer 2023 reservoir testing were best described using radial solutions. In July 2023, two campaigns of interwell confirmatory testing were conducted, the first set of tests occurred on July 4-5 and the second set on July 18-19. The second set of circulation tests conducted at the Utah FORGE site between the injection well 16A(78)-32 and production well 16B(78)-32 on July 18 and 19, 2023 are used to calibrate material properties in a thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) simulation of the discrete fracture network connecting the wells. The spatially and temporally varying reservoir properties are calibrated to match the time dependent pressure and production profiles from the circulation tests. In future work, this calibrated model will be coupled to the native state THM model of the FORGE reservoir to predict surface deformation and strains resulting from pumping schedules.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

An Alternative Conceptual Model for the Spent Nuclear Fuel–Water Interaction in Deep Geologic Disposal Conditions

For the long-term safety assessment of direct disposal of spent nuclear fuel in deep geologic repositories, knowledge on the radionuclide release rate from the UO 2 matrix is essential. This work provides a conceptual model to explain the results of leaching experiments involving used nuclear fuel or simulant materials in confirmed reducing conditions. Key elements of this model are: direct effect of radiation from radiolytic species (including defects and excited states) in the solid and in the first water layers in contact with its surface; and excess H 2 may be produced due to processes occurring at the surface of the spent fuel and in confined water volumes, which may also play a role in keeping the spent fuel surface in a reduced state. The implication is that the fractional radionuclide release rate used in most long-term safety assessments (10 -7 year -1 ) is over estimated because it assumes that there is net UO 2 oxidation caused by radiolysis, in contrast with the alternative conceptual model presented here. Furthermore, conventional water radiolysis models and radiation chemical yields published in the literature are not directly applicable to a heterogeneous system such as the spent fuel–water interface. Suggestions are provided for future work to develop more reliable models for the long-term safety assessment of spent nuclear fuel disposal.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Towards Development of a Conceptual Model for Mercury in Bear Creek, Oak Ridge, Tennessee (FY23 Update)

Mercury concentrations in fish in Bear Creek are elevated and comparable to concentrations seen in fish in East Fork Poplar Creek (EFPC) on the Oak Ridge Reservation, even though aqueous inorganic mercury concentrations are orders of magnitude lower in Bear Creek than in EFPC. Acknowledging that the relationship between aqueous and fish tissue mercury concentrations is not linear, and that methylmercury (MeHg) concentrations are likely more related to fish tissue concentrations than aqueous total mercury (Hg T ) concentrations, MeHg production is not easily predicted or controlled. In Bear Creek, where aqueous Hg T concentrations are low, factors other than mercury loading drive the transformation of mercury to MeHg and subsequent trophic transfer to fish. Initial development of a waste disposal facility (Environmental Management Disposal Facility; EMDF) in Bear Creek Valley has begun, and operation of the EMDF has the potential to increase mercury inputs to Bear Creek. Consequently, understanding the factors contributing to elevated MeHg concentrations in water and fish in Bear Creek has increased relevance and importance. This report summarizes data from recent and historical compliance and investigatory studies with an eye toward building a conceptual model to understand the processes affecting mercury transport and transformation in the Bear Creek watershed, as well as to highlight key knowledge gaps in our understanding of these processes that warrant further investigation. The conceptual model will provide a strong technical basis for prioritizing and optimizing potential mitigation actions or best management practices to minimize potential negative effects of the EMDF related to mercury in Bear Creek.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

High Ice Water Content in Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems (A Conceptual Model)

The phenomenon of high ice water content (HIWC) occurs in mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) when a large number of small ice particles with typical sizes of a few hundred micrometers, concentrations of the order of 10 2 –10 3 L −1 , and IWC exceeding 1 g m −3 are present at high altitudes. HIWC regions in MCSs may extend vertically up to 10 km above the melting layer and horizontally up to hundreds of kilometers, filling large volumes of the convective systems. HIWC has great geophysical significance due to its effect on precipitation formation, the hydrological cycle, and the radiative properties of MCSs. It is also recognized as a hazard for commercial aviation operations since it can result in engine power loss and in the malfunctioning of aircraft data probes. This study summarizes observational and numerical simulation efforts leading to the development of a conceptual model for the production of HIWC in tropical MCSs based on the data collected during the HAIC–HIWC campaign. It is hypothesized that secondary ice production (SIP) in the vicinity of the melting layer plays a key role in the formation and sustainability of HIWC. In situ observations suggest that the major SIP mechanism in the vicinity of the melting layer is related to the fragmentation of freezing drops (FFDs). Both in situ data and numerical simulations suggest that the recirculation of drops through the melting layer led to the amplification of SIP. The proposed conceptual model and simulation results motivate further efforts to extend reproducible laboratory measurements.

high ice water content↗

Verification and Validation of a Conceptual Model of the Auto-Rigging Payload Handling and Off-Loading System Using LEGO Technic System and Three-Dimensional Printed Parts

A conceptual model (CM) can be used to validate a concept in modeling and simulation life cycles. During the 2020-2022 Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, for employee safety NASA implemented center closures and mandatory telework for the entire workforce. During this challenging time, engineers and researchers at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) looked for safe and innovative approaches and methods to continue the development of CMs for various projects. Engineers and researchers at LaRC researched Auto-Rigging Payload Handling and Off-Loading System (ARPHOLS) for payload handing and off-loading a system on an inclined lunar lander deck. In this paper, the development of a CM and the verification and validation of a conceptual idea for ARPHOLS using a LEGO Technic system and three-dimensional printed parts is presented.

Design↗

Metabolic interactions shape emergent biofilm structures in a conceptual model of gut mucosal bacterial communities

Abstract The gut microbiome plays a major role in human health; however, little is known about the structural arrangement of microbes and factors governing their distribution. In this work, we present an in silico agent-based model (ABM) to conceptually simulate the dynamics of gut mucosal bacterial communities. We explored how various types of metabolic interactions, including competition, neutralism, commensalism, and mutualism, affect community structure, through nutrient consumption and metabolite exchange. Results showed that, across scenarios with different initial species abundances, cross-feeding promotes species coexistence. Morphologically, competition and neutralism resulted in segregation, while mutualism and commensalism fostered high intermixing. In addition, cooperative relations resulted in community properties with little sensitivity to the selective uptake of metabolites produced by the host. Moreover, metabolic interactions strongly influenced colonization success following the invasion of newcomer species. These results provide important insights into the utility of ABM in deciphering complex microbiome patterns.

Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology↗