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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing Mesoscale Cellular Convection in Marine Cold Air Outbreaks With a Machine Learning Approach

Abstract During marine cold‐air outbreaks (MCAOs), when cold polar air moves over warmer ocean, a well‐recognized cloud pattern develops, with open or closed mesoscale cellular convection (MCC) at larger fetch over open water. The Cold‐Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment provided a comprehensive set of ground‐based in situ and remote sensing observations of MCAOs at a coastal location in northern Norway. MCAO periods that unambiguously exhibit open or closed MCC are determined. Individual cells observed with a profiling Ka‐band radar are identified using a watershed segmentation method. Using self‐organizing maps (SOMs), these cells are then objectively classified based on the variability in their vertical structure. The SOM nodes contain some information about the location of the cell transect relative to the center of the MCC. This adds classification noise, requiring numerous cell transects to isolate cell dynamical information. The SOM‐based classification shows that comparatively intense convection occurs only in open MCC. This convection undergoes an apparent lifecycle. Developing cells are associated with stronger updrafts, large spectrum width, larger amounts of liquid water, lower surface precipitation rates, and lower cloud tops than mature and weakening cells. The weakening of these cells is associated with the development of precipitation‐induced cold pools. The SOM classification also reveals less intense convection, with a similar lifecycle. More stratiform vertical cloud structures with weak vertical motions are common during closed MCC periods and are separated into precipitating and non‐precipitating stratiform cores. Convection is observed only occasionally in the closed MCC environment.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2025

Effect of Ice Number Concentration on the Evolution of Boundary Layer Clouds During Arctic Marine Cold‐Air Outbreaks

Abstract Marine cold‐air outbreaks (MCAOs) are crucial for Arctic Ocean heat loss, featuring convective cloud rolls that transition into convection cells downstream. Understanding factors controlling this transformation is the key for improving MCAO cloud representation in climate models. This study employs large‐eddy simulations to investigate how cloud ice number concentrations () affect cloud evolution using a case from the Cold‐Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) campaign. The simulations, performed in a Lagrangian framework following an air mass trajectory, are driven by ERA5 reanalysis data. Initially, all simulations produce similar cloud patterns, but higher leads to earlier breakup of cloud rolls. Between 4 and 10 hr, surface precipitation rates are similar across simulations, but precipitation initiates earlier, and the cloud‐base precipitation rates are higher when is higher. The stronger precipitation evaporation leads to increased stability of the boundary layer and reduced intensity of vertical mixing between the surface and cloud layer. An increased sink of cloud layer moisture via precipitation and decreased source through diminished vertical transport result in earlier cloud breakup in higher conditions. Simulations with different sea surface temperatures (SST) indicate that this cloud breakup mechanism remains valid for MCAOs of different strengths, although the cloud organization is more sensitive to SST changes in low environments. This work highlights the importance of accurate representations of ice processes in simulating MCAO clouds and suggests the need for observational constraints of ice nucleating particles and over the mixed‐phase cloud regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of an Arctic cold air outbreak during autumn and related air mass transformations forced by surface changes and advection in higher altitudes

During marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs), cold and dry Arctic air masses are transported from the central Arctic southward across the closed sea ice and much warmer open oceans. They experience significant transformations including a rapid heating and moistening, often leading to cloud formation. While intense wintertime MCAOs have been analyzed widely, the air mass transformations during other seasons have been studied sparsely. We address this gap by investigating an MCAO case observed in September 2020. To study the transformation processes, we combine the fifth generation of atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate (ERA5), trajectory calculations, as well as shipborne and airborne measurements. In the central Arctic, observations acquired from aboard the research vessel (RV) Polarstern during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition characterized the initial state of the air mass over closed sea ice. Trajectories indicated the pathway the air mass took from RV Polarstern southward to the Fram Strait. For the first 24 h of the southbound drift, the air masses remained quasi-stationary. Then, still 15 h ahead of the marginal sea ice zone, differential advection across the boundary layer flow introduced humidity and clouds at higher altitudes between 1.5 and 2.5 km. ERA5-derived temperature and humidity tendencies indicated complex vertical interactions. Radiative cloud-top cooling, entrainment, and turbulence were significantly reduced in the lower and enhanced in the upper advected cloud layer. Eventually, the lower cloud deck dissipated. After this confluence of 2 different air masses, observations gathered by Polar 5 in Fram Strait as part of the MOSAiC Airborne observations in the Central Arctic campaign revealed cloudy, moist layers throughout the lowest 3.5 km and an increasing boundary layer height. Comparing the initial with the final state 48 h later, the largest net heating of +8 K was found close to the surface, yet the largest net moistening of +2.5 g kg -1 at an altitude of 1 km, as the initial profile was exceptionally dry here. We conclude that the observed air mass transformations were driven by the surface changes from sea ice to open ocean but additionally strongly impacted by the differential advection of clouds and moisture across the near-surface MCAO flow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Developing a Lagrangian Frame Transformation on Satellite Data to Study Cloud Microphysical Transitions in Arctic Marine Cold Air Outbreaks

Abstract Arctic marine cold air outbreaks (CAOs) generate distinct and dynamic cloud regimes due to intense air‐sea interactions. To understand the temporal evolution of CAO cloud properties and compare different CAO events, a Lagrangian perspective is particularly useful. We developed a novel technique that enables the conversion of inherently Eulerian satellite data into a Lagrangian framework, combining the broad spatiotemporal coverage of satellite observations with the advantages of Lagrangian tracking. This technique was applied to eight CAO cases associated with a recent field campaign. Our results reveal a striking contrast among the cases in terms of cloud‐top phase transitions, providing new insights into the evolution of CAO cloud properties.

Lagrangian analysis↗
DOE OSTI2023

Vertical Structure of Clouds and Precipitation During Arctic Cold–Air Outbreaks and Warm–Air Intrusions: Observations From COMBLE

The Arctic is marked by deep intrusions of warm, moist air, alternating with outbreaks of cold air down to lower latitudes. The typical vertical structure of clouds and precipitation during these two synoptic weather extremes is examined at a coastal site at 69°N in Norway. The Norwegian Sea is a corridor for warm-air intrusions (WAIs) and frequently witnesses cold-air outbreaks (CAOs). This study uses data from profiling radar, lidar, and microwave radiometer, radiosondes and other probes that were collected during the CAOs in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) between 1 December 2019 and 31 May 2020. Marine CAOs are defined in terms of thermal instability relative to the sea surface temperature, and WAIs in terms of equivalent potential temperature stratification between the surface and 850 hPa. Cloud structures in CAOs are convective, driven by strong surface heat fluxes over a long fetch of open water, with cloud tops rarely exceeding 6 km above sea level. The mostly open-cellular convection produces intermittent moderately-heavy precipitation at the observational site, notwithstanding the low precipitable water vapor (PWV). In contrast, WAIs are marked by high values of PWV and integrated vapor transport. Here, WAI clouds are synoptically driven, stratiform, with cloud tops often exceeding 5 km, sometimes layered, and generally producing persistent precipitation that can be heavier than in CAOs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

First EarthCARE CPR Observations of Dynamics–Microphysics Coupling in Marine Cold‐Air Outbreak Clouds

Marine cold-air outbreak (MCAO) clouds begin as shallow cloud streets near the ice edge and evolve into broken open-cell convection downstream. Their rapid transitions in cloud structure and microphysics are closely linked to vertical motions, but this interplay has not previously been observed from space. The EarthCARE satellite, carrying the first spaceborne Doppler radar (Cloud Profiling Radar, CPR), now measures hydrometeor sedimentation velocity and vertical air motion. Using CPR observations over the Norwegian and Barents Seas (December 2024–May 2025), we analyze MCAO and non-MCAO clouds. We find that strong updrafts in MCAO clouds coincide with larger supercooled liquid water (SLW) path (LWP). These conditions are accompanied by increases in sedimentation velocity and its vertical gradient, reflecting rapid riming-driven ice growth. In contrast, non-MCAO clouds show lower riming efficiency at similar LWP due to relatively weaker dynamical support. This emphasizes the importance of dynamics in shaping polar cloud structure and microphysics.

Kim, Jiseob [McGill Univ., Montreal, QC (Canada)] ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Surface-based observations of cold-air outbreak clouds during the COMBLE field campaign

Abstract. Cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) are characterized by extreme air–sea energy exchanges and low-level convective clouds over large areas in the high-latitude oceans. As such, CAOs are an important component of the Earth's climate system. The CAOs in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) deployment of the US Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF) provided the first comprehensive view of CAOs using a suite of ground-based observations at the northern coast of Norway. Here, cloud and precipitation observations from 13 CAO cases during COMBLE are analyzed. A vertical air motion retrieval technique is applied to the Ka-band ARM Zenith-pointing Radar (KAZR) observations. The CAO cumulus clouds are characterized by strong updrafts with magnitudes between 2–8 m s−1, vertical extents of 1–3 km, and horizontal scales of 0.25–3 km. A strong relationship between our vertical air velocity retrievals and liquid water path (LWP) measurements is found. The LWP measurements exceed 1 kg m−2 in strong updraft areas, and the vertical extent of the updraft correlates well with the LWP values. The CAO cumulus clouds exhibit eddy dissipation rate values between 10−3 and 10−2 m2 s−3 in the lowest 10 km of the atmosphere, and using a radar Doppler spectra technique, evidence of secondary ice production is found during one of the cases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Aerosol size distribution properties associated with cold-air outbreaks in the Norwegian Arctic

The aerosol particles serving as cloud condensation and ice nuclei contribute to key cloud processes associated with cold-air outbreak (CAO) events but are poorly constrained in climate models due to sparse observations. Here we retrieve aerosol number size distribution modes from measurements at Andenes, Norway, during the Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) and at Zeppelin Observatory, approximately 1000 km upwind from Andenes at Svalbard. During CAO events at Andenes, the sea-spray-mode number concentration is correlated with strong over-ocean winds with a mean of 8±4 cm −3 that is 71 % higher than during non-CAO conditions. Additionally, during CAO events at Andenes, the mean Hoppel minimum diameter is 6 nm smaller than during non-CAO conditions, though the estimated supersaturation is lower, and the mean number concentration of particles that likely activated in-cloud is 109±61 cm −3 with no statistically significant difference from the non-CAO mean of 99±66 cm −3 . For CAO trajectories between Zeppelin Observatory and Andenes, the upwind-to-downwind change in number concentration is the largest for the accumulation mode with a mean decrease of 93±95 cm −3 , likely attributable primarily to precipitation scavenging. These characteristic properties of aerosol number size distributions during CAO events provide guidance for evaluating CAO aerosol–cloud interaction processes in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The COMBLE campaign: a study of marine boundary-layer clouds in Arctic cold-air outbreaks

One of the most intense air mass transformations on Earth happens when cold air flows from frozen surfaces to much warmer open water in cold-air outbreaks (CAOs), a process captured beautifully in satellite imagery. Despite the ubiquity of the CAO cloud regime over high-latitude oceans, we have a rather poor understanding of its properties, its role in energy and water cycles, and its treatment in weather and climate models. The Cold-air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) was conducted to better understand this regime and its representation in models. COMBLE aimed to examine the relations between surface fluxes, boundary-layer structure, aerosol, cloud and precipitation properties, and mesoscale circulations in marine CAOs. Processes affecting these properties largely fall in a range of scales where boundary-layer processes, convection, and precipitation are tightly coupled, which makes accurate representation of the CAO cloud regime in numerical weather prediction and global climate models most challenging. COMBLE deployed an Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Mobile Facility at a coastal site in northern Scandinavia (69°N), with additional instruments on Bear Island (75°N), from December 2019 to May 2020. CAO conditions were experienced 19% (21%) of the time at the main site (on Bear Island). A comprehensive suite of continuous in situ and remote sensing observations of atmospheric conditions, clouds, precipitation, and aerosol were collected. Because of the clouds’ well-defined origin, their shallow depth, and the broad range of observed temperature and aerosol concentrations, the COMBLE dataset provides a powerful modeling test bed for improving the representation of mixed-phase cloud processes in large-eddy simulations and large-scale models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) Field Campaign Report

The Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) was conducted successfully between 1 December 2019 and 31 May 2020 around the Norwegian Sea. COMBLE deployed the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) first Mobile Facility (AMF1) along the coast of northern Scandinavia, at an arctic latitude (70°N), and an array of additional instruments on Bear Island (75°N) in the Norwegian Sea. The instruments deployed at these two sites collected a large array of in situ and remote-sensing observations of atmospheric conditions, clouds, precipitation, and aerosol. The main objective of COMBLE is to quantify the properties of shallow convective clouds that develop as part of an air-mass transformation process when cold air blows over open water. The two COMBLE sites are located at ~1,200 km and ~500 km from the cold source, i.e., arctic ice edge, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

On Assessing ERA5 and MERRA2 Representations of Cold-Air Outbreaks Across the Gulf Stream

The warm Gulf Stream sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strongly impact the evolution of winter clouds behind atmospheric cold fronts. Such cloud evolution remains challenging to model. Here, the Gulf Stream is too wide within the ERA5 and MERRA2 reanalyses, affecting the turbulent surface fluxes. Known problems within the ERA5 boundary layer (too-dry and too-cool with too strong westerlies), ascertained primarily from ACTIVATE 2020 campaign aircraft dropsondes and secondarily from older buoy measurements, reinforce surface flux biases. In contrast, MERRA2 winter surface winds and air-sea temperature/humidity differences are slightly too weak, producing surface fluxes that are too low. Reanalyses boundary layer heights in the strongly-forced winter cold-air-outbreak regime are realistic, whereas late-summer quiescent stable boundary layers are too shallow. Nevertheless, the reanalysis biases are small, and reanalyses adequately support their use for initializing higher-resolution cloud process modeling studies of cold-air outbreaks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cloud Morphology Evolution in Arctic Cold‐Air Outbreak: Two Cases During COMBLE Period

Abstract Cloud feedbacks play an important role in Arctic warming. Cloud morphology, for example, cloud size and spatial distributions, is among key factors that directly impact their radiative effects. In this work, we use two cases observed during the Cold‐air Outbreak (CAO) in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE) to study the evolution of cloud size distributions as an air mass is advected from the Arctic over a comparatively warm ocean and cloud mesoscale organization changes from rolls to cells. Cloud objects are identified from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) reflectance images through an object segmentation procedure and roll breakup is identified by homogeneities in cloud water path (CWP). Roll breakup is found to be accompanied by a local minimum in wind shear and local maxima in cloud size and marine cold air outbreak index. The mean cloud horizontal aspect ratio has weak fetch dependency and is around 2 in roll, transition, and cell regimes. Regardless of distance from the ice edge, smaller clouds (<10 km 2 ) dominate the population number but not cloud cover. Cloud size distributions show bimodality in transition and cell regimes. For clouds with comparable sizes, mean nearest neighbor distances normalized by equivalent cloud radius converge to a single value for all regimes and for all but the smallest clouds, suggesting that clouds of comparable sizes in CAOs are separated by distance proportional to their sizes. The presented statistical results pave the way to evaluating model simulated cloud organizations during CAO events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

On the Role of Macrophysics and Microphysics in Km-Scale Simulations of Mixed-Phase Clouds During Cold Air Outbreaks

Regional atmospheric models struggle to maintain supercooled liquid in mixed-phase clouds during polar cold-air outbreaks (CAOs). Previous studies focused on the parameterization of aerosol, microphysics and turbulence to understand the origin of this widespread model bias. This study investigates the role of sub-grid cloud fraction parameterizations (CFP) in the simulation of mixed-phase cloud. Km-scale simulations are performed for a large number of CAO cases over Norway, for which continuous ground observations were collected at one site over 6 months. We use a novel analysis that attributes the cloud-radiative errors to deficiencies in specific cloud regimes. We show that the CFP matters for cloud-radiative effects in CAOs, but that it is probably not the primary cause of the lack of liquid water in simulated mixed-phase clouds. Of all the CFP sensitivities explored in this study, the prognostic representation of both liquid and ice shows most promise in increasing the liquid water path. A newly proposed hybrid CFP with prognostic frozen and diagnostic liquid cloud fraction reproduces some of the benefits of the prognostic scheme at reduced cost and complexity. All simulations appear to produce too large precipitation particles. As a result, reducing the snow deposition rate increases the liquid water path and improves the precipitation size distributions, while simulations are less sensitive to reduced riming rates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Using Satellite and ARM Observations to Evaluate Cold Air Outbreak Cloud Transitions in E3SM Global Storm‐Resolving Simulations

Abstract This study examines marine boundary layer cloud regime transition during a cold air outbreak (CAO) over the Norwegian Sea, simulated by a global storm‐resolving model (GSRM) known as the Simple Cloud‐Resolving Energy Exascale Earth System Model Atmosphere Model (SCREAM). By selecting observational references based on a combination of large‐scale conditions rather than strict time‐matched comparisons, this study finds that SCREAM qualitatively captures the CAO cloud transition, including boundary layer growth, cloud mesoscale structure, and phase partitioning. SCREAM also accurately locates the greatest ice and liquid in the mesoscale updrafts, however, underestimates supercooled liquid water in cumulus clouds. The model evaluation approach adopted by this study takes advantages of the existing computational‐expensive global simulations of GSRM and the available observations to understand model performance and can be applied to assessments of other cloud regimes in different regions. Such practice provides valuable guidance on the future effort to correct and improve biased model behaviors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Exposing and Reducing Biases of Simulating Mixed-Phase Clouds in the Convection-Permitting E3SM Atmosphere Model: Lessons From an Arctic Cold-Air Outbreak

Mixed-phase clouds modulate the water and energy cycles of high-latitude regions, yet their liquid-ice phase partitioning has long been poorly simulated in climate models. Here, simulations of Arctic mixed-phase clouds by the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) are assessed against large-eddy simulations, satellite data, and ground-based observations during the Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment field campaign. SCREAM simulates nearly completely frozen clouds, which is attributed largely to the unreasonably strong Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF) process that converts liquid to ice excessively and partly to the early over-abundant ice production at cold temperatures from a temperature-deterministic deposition ice nucleation scheme. Assuming no subgrid variation for the WBF process in the original formulation particularly conflicts with the instantaneous saturation adjustment assumption in the condensation scheme that assumes subgrid variability, leading to exaggerated WBF process rates. A proposed simple physically-based improvement on the treatment of subgrid cloud overlap substantially increases supercooled liquid water content and notably improves cloud-top phase partitioning, aligning better with observations. Improvement of supercooled liquid water content also converges with increasing horizontal resolution. The deposition ice nucleation scheme is found responsible for a falsely-produced ice cloud aloft that is not observed, biasing the simulated cloud radiative effects and top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes. This study identifies key deficiencies in cloud parameterizations that continue to challenge convection-permitting models.

Geosciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Large-Eddy Simulations of Marine Boundary Layer Clouds Associated with Cold-Air Outbreaks during the ACTIVATE Campaign. Part II: Aerosol–Meteorology–Cloud Interaction

Aerosol effects on micro/macrophysical properties of marine stratocumulus clouds over the western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) are investigated using in situ measurements and large-eddy simulations (LES) for two cold-air outbreak (CAO) cases (28 February and 1 March 2020) during the Aerosol Cloud Meteorology Interactions over the Western Atlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE). The LES is able to reproduce the vertical profiles of liquid water content (LWC), effective radius r eff and cloud droplet number concentration N c from fast cloud droplet probe (FCDP) in situ measurements for both cases. Furthermore, we show that aerosols affect cloud properties (N c , r eff , and LWC) via the prescribed bulk hygroscopicity of aerosols ($\bar{κ}$) and aerosol size distribution characteristics. N c , r eff , and liquid water path (LWP) are positively correlated to $\bar{κ}$ and aerosol number concentration (N a ) while cloud fractional cover (CFC) is insensitive to $\bar{κ}$ and aerosol size distributions for the two cases. The realistic changes to aerosol size distribution (number concentration, width, and the geometrical diameter) with the same meteorology state allow us to investigate aerosol effects on cloud properties without meteorological feedback. We also use the LES results to evaluate cloud properties from two reanalysis products, ERA5 and MERRA-2. Compared to LES, the ERA5 is able to capture the time evolution of LWP and total cloud coverage within the study domain during both CAO cases while MERRA-2 underestimates them.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Meteorological Factors on the Mesoscale Morphology of Cloud Streets during a Cold-Air Outbreak over the Western North Atlantic

We report postfrontal clouds (PFC) are ubiquitous in the marine boundary layer, and their morphology is essential to estimating the radiation budget in weather and climate models. Here we examine the roles of sea surface temperature (SST) and meteorological factors in controlling the mesoscale morphology and evolution of shallow clouds associated with a cold-air outbreak that occurred on 1 March 2020 during phase I of the Aerosol Cloud Meteorology Interactions over the Western Atlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE). Our results show that the simulated PFC structure and ambient conditions by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model are generally consistent with observations from GOES-16 and dropsonde measurements. We also examine the thermodynamical and dynamical influences in the cloud mesoscale morphology using WRF sensitivity experiments driven by two meteorological forcing datasets with different domain-mean SST and spatial gradients, which lead to dissimilar values of hydrometeor water path and cloud core fraction. The SST from ERA5 leads to weaker stability and higher inversion height than the SST from FNL does. In addition, the use of large-scale meteorological forcings from ERA5 yields a distinctive time evolution of wind direction shear in the inner domain, which favors the formation and persistence of longer cloud rolls. Both factors contribute to a change in the time evolution of domain-mean water path and cloud core fraction of cloud streets. Our study takes advantage of the simulation driven by the differences between two large-scale forcing datasets to illustrate the importance of SST and wind direction shear in the cloud street morphology in a realistic scenario.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗