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DOE OSTI2024

Application of Banking Scoring and Rating for Coherent Risk Measures in Electricity Systems ABSCORES

This project developed a framework for asset and system risk management that can be incorporated into current electricity system operations to improve economic efficiency and establish an Electric Assets Risk Bureau. We leveraged scoring and ratings from banking and financial institutions alongside current optimization methods in dispatching power systems to help system operators and electricity markets schedule resources. This approach is based on the observation that there are major discrepancies between the power scheduled by a system operator and the actual power generated/consumed. These discrepancies—exacerbated by unplanned contingencies (e.g., natural disasters)—are caused by multiple factors, including the different financial, environmental and risk preferences of power producers, consumers, and aggregators. We developed a framework that counteracts two failures in electricity system operations: imperfect information and missing markets for products. The technical approach included five tasks. Tasks 1 and 2 supported the development of risk scores at the asset level with historical data collected for this project. Tasks 3, 4, and 5 incorporated scoring into decision-making at the system level. The proposed effort achieved PERFORM's Program Objectives because the proposed outputs and algorithms do not exist in the electricity industry and are an innovative approach to managing risk. Since the acknowledged need to better assess and act upon risk profiles for grid assets has not been met by the industry, this project will also impact ARPA-E's Mission Areas, including improving energy efficiency and giving the U.S. a technological lead in advanced energy technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

A primal–dual algorithm for risk minimization

In this paper, we develop an algorithm to efficiently solve risk-averse optimization problems posed in reflexive Banach space. Such problems often arise in many practical applications as, e.g., optimization problems constrained by partial differential equations with uncertain inputs. Unfortunately, for many popular risk models including the coherent risk measures, the resulting risk-averse objective function is nonsmooth. Here, this lack of differentiability complicates the numerical approximation of the objective function as well as the numerical solution of the optimization problem. To address these challenges, we propose a primal–dual algorithm for solving large-scale nonsmooth risk-averse optimization problems. This algorithm is motivated by the classical method of multipliers and by epigraphical regularization of risk measures. As a result, the algorithm solves a sequence of smooth optimization problems using derivative-based methods. We prove convergence of the algorithm even when the subproblems are solved inexactly and conclude with numerical examples demonstrating the efficiency of our method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2009

Wind Profiling from a New Compact, Pulsed, 2-Micron, Coherent-Detection Doppler Lidar Transceiver during Wind Measurement Intercomparison

Singh, Upendra N.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Development of a Coherent Differential Absorption Lidar for Range Resolved Atmospheric CO2 Measurements

A pulsed, 2-m coherent Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) / Integrated Path Differential Absorption (IPDA) transceiver, developed under the Laser Risk Reduction Program (LRRP) at NASA, is integrated into a fully functional lidar instrument. This instrument will measure atmospheric CO2 profiles (by DIAL) initially from a ground platform, and then be prepared for aircraft installation to measure the atmospheric CO2 column densities in the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) and lower troposphere. The airborne prototype CO2 lidar can measure atmospheric CO2 column density in a range bin of 1km with better than 1.5% precision at horizontal resolution of less than 50km. It can provide the image of the pooling of CO2 in lowlying areas and performs nighttime mass balance measurements at landscape scale. This sensor is unique in its capability to study the vertical ABL-free troposphere exchange of CO2 directly. It will allow the investigators to pursue subsequent in science-driven deployments, and provides a unique tool for Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Night, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) validation that was strongly advocated in the recent ASCENDS Workshop.

Yu, Jirong↗

DOE OSTI2025

2032 and 2036 risk enhancement from NEOs in the Taurid stream: Is there a significant coherent component to impact risk?

Impact risk is normally quantified by summing the product of the probability of an event and some measure of its consequences over the set of all possible events. The probability factor is considered to be more objective and is based on the size frequency distribution of Near Earth objects (NEOs) and an implicit assumption of randomness, which can be described as “stochastic risk”. Impact frequency does change with time, however, and there have been episodes in the deep geological past when the flux has been much higher. The hypothesis of “coherent catastrophism” suggests large variations on shorter timescales. It postulates the existence of a “Taurid resonant swarm” (TRS) of debris associated with Comet Encke that is stabilized by Jupiter and in a 7:2 resonance with it. The hypothetical cluster orbits in the broad Taurid stream, which crosses Earth's orbit twice a year at its nodes. Whereas the most extreme and fanciful versions of coherent catastrophism in recent geologic history have been comprehensively refuted, the possibility of a significant component of coherent (time-dependent) risk, associated with non-random correlated events, remains. This paper incorporates recently published data from observational campaigns associated with the Taurid stream. There is no evidence for objects in the Taurid stream that are above the global catastrophe threshold, but the possibility of a few large objects and a significant population of objects the size of the Chelyabinsk or Tunguska bodies has not been eliminated. Eyewitness accounts and comparison of airburst models to ground truth suggest that the Tunguska object was a Beta Taurid. The Tunguska event is probably an outlier when compared to the size frequency distributions under stochastic assumptions, but if there is a significant coherent component it may be representative of events that take place far more frequently, and risk assessments may have underestimated the contribution from airbursts. If so, the Earth will experience increased risk from objects this size, peaking in November 2032 and June 2036. We recommend targeted survey campaigns during these hypothetical TRS node crossings to quantify the population, search for potentially hazardous objects, and identify imminent impactors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2007

Compact and Rugged Transceiver for Coherent Doppler Wind Lidar Applications in Space

High-accuracy, vertical profiles of the horizontal vector wind in earth s atmosphere, with the global coverage of an orbiting sensor, are a highly desired measurement of NASA, NOAA, and many other agencies and countries. It is the consensus of NASA and NOAA that the most cost effective, lowest risk measurement method with the earliest achievable mission date is the hybrid Doppler lidar method which utilizes both coherent- and direct-detection Doppler lidars to obtain the desired profiles. NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) has advanced the 2-micron pulsed solid-state laser greatly over the past 15 years and has recently demonstrated 1.2 J of pulse energy whereas the requirement for a 400-km hybrid Doppler lidar mission is only 0.25 J. The IIP project reported here is an effort to increase the ruggedness and to compactly package the LaRC state-of-the-art laser technology.

Kavaya, Michael J.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Doppler Lidar for Wind Measurements on Venus

NASA Langley Research Center has a long history of developing 2-micron laser transmitter for wind sensing. With support from NASA Laser Risk Reduction Program (LRRP) and Instrument Incubator Program (IIP), NASA Langley Research Center has developed a state-of-the-art compact lidar transceiver for a pulsed coherent Doppler lidar system for wind measurement. The transmitter portion of the transceiver employs the high-pulse-energy, Ho:Tm:LuLiF, partially conductively cooled laser technology developed at NASA Langley. The transceiver is capable of 250 mJ pulses at 10 Hz. It is very similar to the technology envisioned for coherent Doppler lidar wind measurements from Earth and Mars orbit. The transceiver is coupled to the large optics and data acquisition system in the NASA Langley VALIDAR mobile trailer. The large optics consists of a 15-cm off-axis beam expanding telescope, and a full-hemispheric scanner. Vertical and horizontal vector winds are measured, as well as relative backscatter. The data acquisition system employs frequency domain velocity estimation and pulse accumulation. It permits real-time display of the processed winds and archival of all data. This lidar system was recently deployed at Howard University facility in Beltsville, Mary-land, along with other wind lidar systems. Coherent Doppler wind lidar ground-based wind measurements and comparisons with other sensors will be presented. A simulation and data product for wind measurement at Venus will be presented.

Singh, Upendra N.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Achieving a Risk-Informed Decision-Making Environment at NASA: The Emphasis of NASA's Risk Management Policy

This slide presentation reviews the evolution of risk management (RM) at NASA. The aim of the RM approach at NASA is to promote an approach that is heuristic, proactive, and coherent across all of NASA. Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM) is a decision making process that uses a diverse set of performance measures along with other considerations within a deliberative process to inform decision making. RIDM is invoked for key decisions such as architecture and design decisions, make-buy decisions, and budget reallocation. The RIDM process and how it relates to the continuous Risk Management (CRM) process is reviewed.

Dezfuli, Homayoon↗

DOE OSTI2024

Learning linear optical circuits with coherent states

We analyze the energy and training data requirements for supervised learning of an M-mode linear optical circuit by minimizing an empirical risk defined solely from the action of the circuit on coherent states. When the linear optical circuit acts non-trivially only on k < M unknown modes (i.e. a linear optical k-junta), we provide an energy-efficient, adaptive algorithm that identifies the junta set and learns the circuit. We compare two schemes for allocating a total energy, E, to the learning algorithm. In the first scheme, each of the T random training coherent states has energy E/T. In the second scheme, a single random MT-mode coherent state with energy E is partitioned into T training coherent states. The latter scheme exhibits a polynomial advantage in training data size sufficient for convergence of the empirical risk to the full risk due to concentration of measure on the $(2MT-1)$-sphere. Specifically, generalization bounds for both schemes are proven, which indicate that for ε-approximation of the full risk by the empirical risk with high probability, $O(E^{2/3}M^{2/3}/\epsilon^{2/3})$ training states are sufficient for the first scheme and $O(E^{1/3}M^{1/3}/\epsilon^{2/3})$ training states are sufficient for the second scheme.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

NASA NTRS2017

Exploratory Analysis of Carbon Dioxide Levels, Ultrasound and Optical Coherence Tomography Measures of the Eye During ISS Missions

Enhanced screening for the Visual Impairment/Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome has been implemented to better characterize the ocular and vision changes observed in some long-duration crewmembers. This includes implementation of in-flight ultrasound in 2010 and optical coherence tomography (OCT) in 2013. Potential risk factors for VIIP include cardiovascular health, diet, anatomical and genetic factors, and environmental conditions. Carbon dioxide (CO2), a potent vasodilator, is chronically elevated on the International Space Station (ISS) relative to ambient levels on Earth, and is a plausible risk factor for VIIP. In an effort to understand the possible associations between CO2 and VIIP, this study explores the relationship of ambient CO2 levels on ISS compared to inflight ultrasound and OCT measures of the eye obtained from ISS crewmembers. CO2 measurements were aggregated from Operational Data Reduction Complex and Node 3 major constituent analyzers (MCAs) on ISS or from sensors located in the European Columbus module, as available. CO2 levels in the periods between each ultrasound and OCT session are summarized using timeseries metrics, including time-weighted means and variances. Partial least squares regression analyses are used to quantify the complex relationship between specific ultrasound and OCT measures and the CO2 metrics simulataneously. These analyses will enhance our understanding of the possible associations between CO2 levels and structural changes to the eye which will in turn inform future analysis of inflight VIIP data.

Schaefer, C.↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Two Micron Coherent Differential Absorption Lidar Development

A pulsed, 2-micron coherent Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL)/Integrated Path Differential Absorption (IPDA) transceiver, developed under the Laser Risk Reduction Program (LRRP) at NASA, is integrated into a fully functional lidar instrument. This instrument measures atmospheric CO2 profiles (by DIAL) from a ground platform. It allows the investigators to pursue subsequent in science-driven deployments, and provides a unique tool for Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Night, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) validation that was strongly advocated in the recent ASCENDS Workshop. Keywords: Differential Absorption Lidar, Near Infrared Laser,

Yu, Jirong↗

NASA NTRS2010

TPSAS-NF1676L-10746-DND

This paper presents the design, development, and field testing of a high sensitivity ground-based Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) system that was developed under the NASA Instrument Incubator Program. The investigation presents a significant advancement towards the development of future CO2 profiling capability as it incorporates key elements of technologies needed for a future development of global CO2 measuring systems including: (1) 2-μm laser technologies that have been developed under a number of NASA programs including the Laser Risk Reduction Program (LRRP) (2) A novel high quantum efficiency (QE), high gain (without excess noise factor), and low noise phototransistor, and (3) Direct detection DIAL system using a large collection area receiver that is insensitive to speckle and coherence length effects from atmospheric turbulence that influences heterodyne detection systems. The objective of the project was a system TRL of 4, and the goal was TRL 5. Development and testing of the laser, new detector, and receiver systems during the project, integration into a complete lidar system into a trailer, field testing of system at West Branch, IA and comparison of the lidar CO2 measurements with in situ sensors advanced the system to a TRL of 5. The system demonstrated high vertical resolution CO2 profiling capability within the boundary layer and column measurements to long ranges. This is the first direct detection demonstration of a 2-micron CO2 DIAL high vertical resolution capability from instrument concept to field demonstration.

Syed Ismail↗

NASA NTRS1999

Improving Scientific Capabilities in Space in the 21st Century: The NASA New Millennium Program

NASA's New Millennium Program (NMP) has been chartered to identify and validate in space emerging, revolutionary technologies that will enable less costly, more capable future science missions. The program utilizes a unique blend of science guidance and industry partnering to ferret out technology solutions to enable science capabilities in space which are presently technically infeasible, or unaffordable. Those technologies which present an unacceptably high risk to future science missions (whether small PI-led or operational) are bundled into technology validation missions. These missions seek to validate the technologies in a manner consistent with their future uses, thus reducing the associated risk to the first user, and obtaining meaningful science data as well. The Space Readiness Coherent Lidar Experiment (SPARCLE) was approved as the second NMP Earth Observing mission (EO2) in October 1997, and assigned to Marshall Space Flight Center for implementation. Leading up to mission confirmation, NMP sponsored a community workshop in March 1996 to draft Level-1 requirements for a doppler wind lidar mission, as well as other space-based lidar missions (such as DIAL). Subsequently, a study group was formed and met twice to make recommendations on how to perform a comparison of coherent and direct detection wind lidars in space. These recommendations have guided the science validation plan for the SPARCLE mission, and will ensure that future users will be able to confidently assess the risk profile of future doppler wind missions utilizing EO2 technologies. The primary risks to be retired are: (1) Maintenance of optical alignments through launch and operations on orbit, and (2) Successful velocity estimation compensation for the Doppler shift due to the platform motion, and due to the earth's rotation. This includes the need to account for all sources of error associated with pointing control and knowledge. The validation objectives are: (1) Demonstrate measurement of tropospheric winds from space using a scanning coherent Doppler lidar technique that scales to meet future research (e.g. ESSP) and operational (e.g. NPOESS) mission requirements. Specifically, produce and validate LOS wind data with single shot accuracy of 1-2 m/s in regions of high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and low atmospheric wind turbulence and wind shear, (2) Collect the atmospheric and instrument performance data in various scanning modes necessary to validate and improve instrument performance models that will enable the definition of future missions with greater confidence. Such data include aerosol backscatter data over much of the globe, and high SNR data such as that from surface returns, and (3) Produce a set of raw instrument data with which advanced signal processing techniques can be developed. This objective will permit future missions to better understand how to extract wind information from low backscatter regions of the atmosphere.

Raymond, Carol A.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Investigation of Unsteady Pressure-Sensitive Paint (uPSP) and a Dynamic Loads Balance to Predict Launch Vehicle Buffet Environments

This NESC assessment examined the accuracy of estimating buffet loads on in-line launch vehicles without booster attachments using sparse unsteady pressure measurements. The buffet loads computed using sparse sensor data were compared with estimates derived using measurements with much higher spatial resolution. The current method for estimating launch vehicle buffet loads is through wind tunnel testing of models with approximately 400 unsteady pressure transducers. Even with this relatively large number of sensors, the coverage can be insufficient to provide reliable integrated unsteady loads on vehicles. In general, sparse sensor spacing requires the use of coherence-length-based corrections in the azimuthal and axial directions to integrate the unsteady pressures and obtain reasonable estimates of the buffet loads. Coherence corrections have been used to estimate buffet loads for a variety of launch vehicles with the assumption methodology results in reasonably conservative loads. For the Space Launch System (SLS), the first estimates of buffet loads exceeded the limits of the vehicle structure, so additional tests with higher sensor density were conducted to better define the buffet loads and possibly avoid expensive modifications to the vehicle design. Without the additional tests and improvements to the coherence-length analysis methods, there would have been significant impacts to the vehicle weight, cost, and schedule. If the load estimates turn out to be too low, there is significant risk of structural failure of the vehicle. This assessment used a combination of unsteady pressure-sensitive paint (uPSP), unsteady pressure transducers, and a dynamic force and moment balance to investigate the integration schemes used with limited unsteady pressure data by comparing them with direct integration of extremely dense fluctuating pressure measurements. An outfall of the assessment was to evaluate the potential of using the emerging uPSP technique in a production test environment for future launch vehicles. The results show that modifications to the current technique can improve the accuracy of buffet estimates. More importantly, the uPSP worked remarkably well and, with improvements to the frequency response, sensitivity, and productivity, will provide an enhanced method for measuring wind tunnel buffet forcing functions (BFFs).

Schuster, David M.↗

NASA NTRS2003

High Power Laser Diode Arrays for 2-Micron Solid State Coherent Lidars Applications

Laser diode arrays are critical components of any diode-pumped solid state laser systems, constraining their performance and reliability. Laser diode arrays (LDAs) are used as the pump source for energizing the solid state lasing media to generate an intense coherent laser beam with a high spatial and spectral quality. The solid state laser design and the characteristics of its lasing materials define the operating wavelength, pulse duration, and power of the laser diodes. The pump requirements for high pulse energy 2-micron solid state lasers are substantially different from those of more widely used 1-micron lasers and in many aspects more challenging [1]. Furthermore, the reliability and lifetime demanded by many coherent lidar applications, such as global wind profiling from space and long-range clear air turbulence detection from aircraft, are beyond the capability of currently available LDAs. In addition to the need for more reliable LDAs with longer lifetime, further improvement in the operational parameters of high power quasi-cw LDAs, such as electrical efficiency, brightness, and duty cycle, are also necessary for developing cost-effective 2-micron coherent lidar systems for applications that impose stringent size, heat dissipation, and power constraints. Global wind sounding from space is one of such applications, which is the main driver for this work as part of NASA s Laser Risk Reduction Program. This paper discusses the current state of the 792 nm LDA technology and the technology areas being pursued toward improving their performance. The design and development of a unique characterization facility for addressing the specific issues associated with the LDAs for pumping 2-micron coherent lidar transmitters and identifying areas of technological improvement will be described. Finally, the results of measurements to date on various standard laser diode packages, as well as custom-designed packages with potentially longer lifetime, will be reported.

Amzajerdian, Farzin↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

TPSAS-NF1676L-11930-DND

Under the NASA Laser Risk Reduction Program (LRRP), funded by Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO), an efficient, injection seeded, high repetition rate Tm:fiber laser pumped Ho:YLF laser has been developed and operation between 100 Hz to 10 kHz has been demonstrated. The work is underway to develop an efficient, high-repetition-rate, pulsed, 2-micron, coherent Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) / Integrated Path Differential Absorption (IPDA) instrument for measuring the atmospheric CO2 profiles (DIAL) and column densities (IPDA) from an airborne platform. In DIAL mode, this instrument will provide the first ever range-resolved, high-precision, remote measurements of the CO2 content of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) and lower troposphere.

Upendra N Singh↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Correlated Changes in Retinal Thickness and Visuomotor Function in Asymptomatic Plaquenil Toxicity Patients

We have previously shown that a 5-minute eye-movement test can capture a number of largely independent “oculometric” parameters of human visual/visuomotor function (Liston & Stone, 2014). This test has been successfully used to characterize mild neural impairment due to traumatic brain injury, sleep and circadian disruption, and alcohol consumption (Liston et al., 2017; Stone et al, 2019; Tyson et al, 2021). Here, we extend this approach to study patients at risk of progressive posterior-segment illness to see how oculometrics relate to standard clinical ophthalmological measures. Five female patients (<20:40 BCVA, 34-60 years old) undergoing hydroxychloroquine treatment (2-7mg/kg/day for 10-23 years for rheumatologic illness) have participated thus far. Under monocular viewing conditions in randomized order, they tracked a moving spot undergoing radial step-ramp motion in one of 90 randomized directions, at one of 5 randomized speeds, starting at random times (for details, see Stone et al, 2019). We computed nine independent oculometrics (latency, initial acceleration, steady-state gain, proportion smooth, saccadic rate, saccadic amplitude, direction noise, speed responsiveness, and speed noise). Spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (Zeiss, Dublin, CA) was used to measure the average thickness of the nine Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study macular sectors from the internal limiting membrane to the retinal pigmented epithelium. We used Pearson’s correlation between retinal thickness and our oculometrics with t-statistics to test separate one-sided hypotheses across 10 retinae. Our preliminary analysis found significant changes in several different aspects of visuomotor performance. Most notably, latency increased, initial acceleration decreased, and steady-state pursuit gain decreased as retinal thickness decreased (r2 = 0.364, 0.579, and 0.692; one-tailed P = 0.032, 0.005, and 0.001, respectively). Speed responsiveness appeared to decrease, but this effect was marginal for our current sample (r2 = 0.253, P = 0.069). Lastly, direction discrimination and saccadic behavior appeared unchanged. We conclude that oculometrics may provide sensitive measures of changes in retinal thickness. More importantly, oculometrics have the potential to detect impairment before it becomes evident with standard clinical imaging tools, while also providing insight into the behavioral implications of any resulting deficits in visual/visuomotor function.

eye movements↗

NASA NTRS2023

Incidence and Progression of Chorioretinal Folds During Long-Duration Spaceflight

Importance: The primary contributing factor for development of chorioretinal folds during spaceflight is unknown. Characterizing fold types that develop and tracking their progression may provide insight into the pathophysiology of spaceflight-associated neuro-ocular syndrome and elucidate the risk of fold progression for future exploration-class missions exceeding 12 months in duration. Objective: To determine the incidence and presentation of chorioretinal folds in long-duration International Space Station crew members and objectively quantify the progression of choroidal folds during spaceflight. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this retrospective cohort study, optical coherence tomography scans of the optic nerve head and macula of crew members completing long-duration spaceflight missions were obtained on Earth prior to spaceflight and during flight. A panel of experts examined the scans for the qualitative presence of chorioretinal folds. Peripapillary total retinal thickness was calculated to identify eyes with optic disc edema, and choroidal folds were quantified based on surface roughness within macular and peripapillary regions of interest. Interventions or Exposures: Spaceflight missions ranging 6 to 12 months. Main Outcomes and Measures: Incidence of peripapillary wrinkles, retinal folds, and choroidal folds; peripapillary total retinal thickness; and Bruch membrane surface roughness. Results: A total of 36 crew members were analyzed (mean [SD] age, 46 [6] years; 7 [19%] female). Chorioretinal folds were observed in 12 of 72 eyes (17%; 6 crew members). In eyes with early signs of disc edema, 10 of 42 (24%) had choroidal folds, 4 of 42 (10%) had inner retinal folds, and 2 of 42 (5%) had peripapillary wrinkles. Choroidal folds were observed in all eyes with retinal folds and peripapillary wrinkles. Macular choroidal folds developed in 7 of 12 eyes (4 of 6 crew members) with folds and progressed with mission duration; these folds extended into the fovea in 6 eyes. Circumpapillary choroidal folds developed predominantly superior, nasal, and inferior to the optic nerve head and increased in prevalence and severity with mission duration. Conclusions and Relevance: Choroidal folds were the most common fold type to develop during spaceflight; this differs from reports in idiopathic intracranial hypertension, suggesting differences in the mechanisms underlying fold formation. Quantitative measures demonstrate the development and progression of choroidal folds during weightlessness, and these metrics may help to assess the efficacy of spaceflight-associated neuro-ocular syndrome countermeasures.

Connor R. Ferguson↗