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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2026

Weak, shallow, dry convection over Angola increases offshore stratocumulus cloud droplet number concentrations

Boundary-layer cloud interactions involving shortwave-absorbing aerosols remain one of the least understood aerosol influences on climate. Here, we find the highest stratocumulus cloud droplet number concentrations over the southeast Atlantic occur when agricultural fires coincide with synoptically-weakened surface warming over Angola, occurring June-early August. Dry convection fills a shallow continental boundary layer with smoke, and a nighttime (local solar time 2-9) land breeze transports the aerosol into the marine boundary layer. Offshore aerosol transport is strengthened by low-level easterlies from a continental pressure high southeast of Angola. Simultaneously, the South Atlantic subtropical high is weaker, allowing extensive dispersal of aerosol offshore into the boundary layer, obscuring cloud brightening from shipping. Meteorological co-variation at synoptic scales compensates for cloud brightening by the smoke. Outgoing shortwave radiation increases by 15–20% of the monthly mean in June and July when offshore droplet numbers are less but the stratocumulus deck is more developed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Magnitude and timescale of liquid water path adjustments to cloud droplet number concentration perturbations for nocturnal non-precipitating marine stratocumulus

Cloud liquid water path (L) adjusts to perturbations in cloud droplet number concentration (N) over time. We explore the magnitude and timescale of this adjustment in nocturnal non-precipitating marine stratocumuli using large eddy simulations of baseline conditions and aerosol seeding experiments for 22 meteorological conditions. The results confirm that the L adjustment (δL) slope (k) is more negative for simulation pairs with relatively low N and less negative for high N. Overall, k is unlikely to be lower than −0.4 within 24 h of seeding start, meaning the L adjustment is unlikely to fully offset the brightening due to the Twomey effect. After seeding, the δL becomes increasingly negative, which can be characterized by an exponential convergence. This evolution is governed by a short timescale around 5 h and lasts for around 8–12 h. It is driven by the feedback between entrainment, L, and boundary layer (BL) turbulence. Other processes, including radiation, surface fluxes, and subsidence, respond to the seeding weakly. This short timescale is insensitive to the amount of seeding, making the evolution of δL and some other deviations similar for different seeding amounts after appropriate scaling. The timescale of k evolution is closely related to the δL timescale and hence also short, while it could also be affected by the δN evolution. The results are most relevant to conditions where seeding is applied to a large area of marine stratocumulus in well-mixed and overcast BL where shear is not a primary source of turbulence.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale ACI Satellite Database

The SATELLITE_EAGLES_PNNL NetCDF dataset contains a suite of satellite- and reanalysis-derived atmospheric and surface parameters on a regular latitude–longitude grid. The dataset includes core geophysical fields such as land fraction, aerosol optical depth at multiple wavelengths (465, 550, 667, and 865 nm), sea surface temperature, estimated inversion strength, and various thermodynamic and dynamic quantities (e.g., relative humidity, vertical velocity, boundary-layer height, and surface fluxes) from both MERRA and ERA reanalysis products, provided as daily-mean and instantaneous values. A major component of the dataset consists of MODIS-retrieved cloud microphysical properties, including cloud droplet number concentration, cloud effective radius, optical thickness, and liquid water path, provided for three compositing regimes (“All,” “Q06,” and “G18”). Corresponding cloud-top parameters—temperature, height, and pressure—along with total and domain-mean cloud fraction fields are also included. The file further integrates additional satellite data from AMSR-E (for cloud water, rain water, and surface precipitation retrievals) and CERES (for top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes, cloud fractions, and albedo). This dataset is designed to evaluate aerosol–cloud interactions in warm clouds, emphasizing the use of MODIS for deriving cloud droplet number concentration and liquid water path statistics. The complementary satellite and reanalysis fields are co-located and time-matched to the same instantaneous MODIS observations, enabling consistent comparisons between cloud properties, aerosol loading, and large-scale meteorological conditions. The dataset is recently featured in Christensen et al. (2025), Machine Learning Reveals Strong Grid-Scale Dependence in the Satellite Nd–LWP Relationship, EGUsphere [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-3850, 2025.

Christensen, Matthew [Pacific Northwest National L↗

DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale ACI Satellite Database

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tansey_MICRE_D98_microphysics_V5

This data file contains retrievals of cloud-effective-radius and cloud-droplet-number-concentration for low clouds based on the Dong et al. 1998 retrieval technique for the MICRE campaign. The retrieval is based on observed downwelling broadband SW fluxes and microwave-radiometer-retrieved-liquid-water-path averaged on a 5 minute time scale (mean when low cloud is present). Details on the algorithm and analysis of results are given in Tansey et al. 2024 (submitted DOI: 10.22541/essoar.173482310.03809503/v1). The data is limited to the period 20160410 to 20160612 AND 20170103 to 20170214 during which time good quality microwave-radiometer measurements are available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tansey_MICRE_D98_microphysics_V5

This data file contains retrievals of cloud-effective radius and cloud-droplet-number concentration for low clouds based on the Dong et al. 1998 retrieval technique for the MICRE campaign. The retrieval is based on observed downwelling broadband shortwave (SW) fluxes and microwave-radiometer-retrieved-liquid-water-path averaged on a 5-minute time scale (mean when low cloud is present). Details on the algorithm and analysis of results are given in Tansey et al. 2024 (submitted DOI: 10.22541/essoar.173482310.03809503/v1). The data are limited to the period of 20160410 to 20160612 and 20170103 to 20170214 during which time good quality microwave radiometer measurements are available.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Variability of Eastern North Atlantic Summertime Marine Boundary Layer Clouds and Aerosols Across Different Synoptic Regimes Identified With Multiple Conditions

Abstract This study estimates the meteorological covariations of aerosol and marine boundary layer (MBL) cloud properties in the eastern North Atlantic (ENA) region, characterized by diverse synoptic conditions. Using a deep‐learning‐based clustering model with mid‐level and surface daily meteorological data, we identify seven distinct synoptic regimes during the summer from 2016 to 2021. Our analysis, incorporating reanalysis data and satellite retrievals, shows that surface aerosols and MBL clouds exhibit clear regime‐dependent characteristics, whereas lower tropospheric aerosols do not. This discrepancy likely arises from synoptic regimes determined by daily large‐scale conditions, which may overlook air mass histories that predominantly dictate lower tropospheric aerosol conditions. Focusing on three regimes dominated by northerly winds, we analyze the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) ENA observations on Graciosa Island in the Azores. In the subtropical anticyclone regime, fewer cumulus clouds and more single‐layer stratocumulus clouds with light drizzle are observed, along with the highest cloud droplet number concentration (Nd), surface cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and surface aerosol levels. The post‐trough regime features more broken or multi‐layer stratocumulus clouds with slightly higher surface rain rate, and lower Nd and surface CCN levels. The weak trough regime is characterized by the deepest MBL clouds, primarily cumulus and broken stratocumulus clouds, with the strongest surface rain rate and the lowest Nd, surface CCN and surface aerosol levels, indicating strong wet scavenging. These findings highlight the importance of considering the covariation of cloud and aerosol properties driven by large‐scale regimes when assessing aerosol indirect effects using observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Detectable ship tracks account for just 5% of aerosol indirect forcing from ship emissions

Ship emissions are a major source of aerosols over oceans, affecting both air quality and energy balance of the climate. However, estimates of their climate forcing diverge between studies relying on visible ship-tracks and those based on models. Here we show that forcing due to visible ship-tracks accounts for just 5% of the total forcing over the southeast Atlantic shipping-lane. Most forcing from ship emissions comes from aerosols that do not form detectable ship-tracks. They are only tips of the iceberg. We make three forcing calculations, one bottom-up based on visible ship-tracks, one top-down based on spatial relationships, and a hybrid approach that combines top-down or model estimated cloud droplet number concentration changes and cloud adjustments. Although the forcing based on machine learning detected ship tracks is an order of magnitude greater than prior results using manually detected ship-tracks, it remains only 5% of that inferred by top-down or cloud adjustment based methods for pre-2020 shipping. The top-down and the combined cloud adjustments methods show similar forcing for the post-2020 reduction in ships’ sulfur emission, although the methods have important regional differences in cloud adjustments that need further investigation. Our results reconcile a long-standing discrepancy in the literature and have important implications for aerosol indirect forcing and marine cloud brightening.

Yuan, Tianle [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Weak influence of anthropogenic emissions on aerosol, cloud, and rain in the wet season of the Amazon rainforest

Anthropogenic emissions have been shown to affect new particle formation, aerosol concentrations, and clouds. Such effects vary with region, environmental conditions, and cloud types. In the wet season of Amazonia, anthropogenic emissions emitted from Manaus, Brazil, can significantly increase the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations compared to the background of mainly natural aerosols. However, the regional response of cloud and rain to anthropogenic emissions in Amazonia remains very uncertain. Here, we aim to quantify how aerosol concentration, cloud, and rain respond to changes in anthropogenic emissions through parameterized new particle formation and primary aerosol emission in the Manaus region and to understand the underlying mechanisms. We ran the atmosphere-only configuration of the HadGEM3 climate model with a nested regional domain that covers most of the rainforest region (720 km by 1200 km with 3 km resolution) under scaled regional emissions. The 7 d simulations show that, in the areas that are affected by anthropogenic emissions, when aerosol and precursor gas emissions are doubled from the baseline emission inventories, aerosol number concentrations increase by 13 %. The nucleation rate that involves sulfuric acid and biogenic compounds generally increases with pollution levels. However, nucleation is suppressed very close to the pollution source, resulting in lower nucleation and soluble Aitken mode aerosol number concentrations. We also found that doubling the anthropogenic emission can increase the cloud droplet number concentrations ( N d ) by 9 %, but cloud water and rain mass mixing ratios do not change significantly. Even very strong reductions in aerosol number concentrations by a factor of 4, which is an unrealistic condition, cause only a 4 % increase in rain over the domain. If we assume our simulation has a fine enough grid resolution and an accurate representation of the relevant atmospheric processes, the simulated weak and non-linear response of cloud and rain properties to linearly scaled anthropogenic emissions suggests that the interactions among aerosol, cloud, and precipitation in the Amazonian convective environment are buffered by microphysical processes. It also implies that the convective environment is resilient to the changes in Nd that occur in response to localized anthropogenic aerosol perturbations.

Wang, Xuemei [University of Leeds (United Kingdom)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Haze–cloud correlations mediated by supersaturation fluctuations

Atmospheric aerosol particles that contain water-soluble components can absorb water vapor in humid environments and form either haze particles or cloud droplets, depending on supersaturation conditions. Laboratory and in situ measurements have shown that haze particles and cloud droplets often coexist and compete for available water vapor in shallow clouds and fogs, especially under polluted conditions. It is expected that more aerosol particles can form more haze particles and cloud droplets, so that the haze and cloud number concentrations are positively correlated. However, recent large-eddy simulations show that haze and cloud number concentration can be negatively correlated under extremely polluted conditions. Haze–cloud interactions across different environmental settings remain poorly understood. In this study, experiments in a convection cloud chamber with the same aerosol injection rate show that, as supersaturation forcing increases (i.e., changing from polluted to clean conditions), the covariance between haze and cloud droplet number concentration changes from negative to positive and finally to zero. Large-eddy simulations (LES) of the cloud chamber with a fixed supersaturation forcing but varying aerosol injection rates show a similar result for the haze–cloud correlation: near zero in clean, mean-supersaturation-dominated activation conditions; positive in moderate, supersaturation-fluctuation-influenced activation conditions; and negative in polluted, supersaturation-fluctuation-dominated activation conditions. A theoretical covariance framework was developed to interpret this behavior based on the relative magnitude and signs of the correlations between supersaturation and the populations of haze and cloud droplets. Significantly, experiments, LES, and theory all yield the same three-regime behavior for the sign of the haze–cloud covariance. Furthermore, our results show that the haze–cloud covariance remains robust and easily measurable, thereby providing a useful metric for regime identification in the atmosphere, improving regime-aware parameterizations, and informing aerosol interventions such as fog dispersion, rainfall enhancement, and albedo modification.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

MODIS Aerosol and Low‐Cloud Retrievals: Orographic Effects in the Wake of Macquarie Island

Abstract Visible/infrared imagery from passive satellites is commonly relied upon to study low cloud microphysics over oceanic regions, including for the Southern Ocean (SO), but relatively little validation has been undertaken for the SO. In this article, we compare low‐cloud effective radius ( r e ), cloud droplet number concentration ( N d ) and cloud liquid water path (LWP) retrievals from the NASA Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) with surface measurements collected during the Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE). MODIS 3.7‐μm band retrievals show little bias and moderately good correlation relative to MICRE retrievals for liquid‐phase low clouds when restricted to Solar Zenith Angles <65° on spatial scales of 50–100 km. However, the low overall bias in 3.7‐μm band effective radius ( r e 3.7 ) retrievals partly results from cancellation of errors: r e 3.7 is overestimated for non‐to‐lightly precipitating clouds, and underestimated for heavier drizzling clouds by ∼1–1.5 μm. 1.6‐μm and 2.1‐μm band r e retrievals are biased high. N d may likewise be slightly under‐ or overestimated depending on the concentration, but there is insufficient data to provide confidence in this result. Interestingly, a composite of MODIS retrievals from 2002 to 2020 show a distinct region of enhanced cloud cover and N d (and lower r e ) in the wake of Macquarie Island associated with orographic cloud formation. MODIS retrievals of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Angstrom Exponent (AE) upwind and downwind of the island do not differ significantly. Comparison with MICRE measurements suggests that MODIS Collection 6 AOD retrievals are reasonable, while AE is problematically large.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Microphysics regimes due to haze–cloud interactions: cloud oscillation and cloud collapse

Abstract. It is known that aqueous haze particles can be activated into cloud droplets in a supersaturated environment. However, haze–cloud interactions have not been fully explored, partly because haze particles are not represented in most cloud-resolving models. Here, we conduct a series of large-eddy simulations (LESs) of a cloud in a convection chamber using a haze-capable Eulerian-based bin microphysics scheme to explore haze–cloud interactions over a wide range of aerosol injection rates. Results show that the cloud is in a slow microphysics regime at low aerosol injection rates, where the cloud responds slowly to an environmental change and droplet deactivation is negligible. The cloud is in a fast microphysics regime at moderate aerosol injection rates, where the cloud responds quickly to an environmental change and haze–cloud interactions are important. More interestingly, two more microphysics regimes are observed at high aerosol injection rates due to haze–cloud interactions. Cloud oscillation is driven by the oscillation of the mean supersaturation around the critical supersaturation of aerosol due to haze–cloud interactions. Cloud collapse happens under weaker forcing of supersaturation where the chamber transfers cloud droplets to haze particles efficiently, leading to a significant decrease (collapse) in cloud droplet number concentration. One special case of cloud collapse is the haze-only regime. It occurs at extremely high aerosol injection rates, where droplet activation is inhibited, and the sedimentation of haze particles is balanced by the aerosol injection rate. Our results suggest that haze particles and their interactions with cloud droplets should be considered, especially in polluted conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

The role of local shipping emissions in aerosol-cloud interactions in the central Arctic

Arctic shipping is projected to increase as sea ice retreats, yet the impact of modern low-sulfur ship emissions on Arctic clouds and radiation remain poorly constrained. We use year-long in situ observations from the MOSAiC expedition to characterize ship-aerosol-cloud interactions for an icebreaker burning ultra-low sulfur fuel (0.1% mass per mass). Exhaust plumes were found to be strongly enriched in Aitken-mode particles, organic aerosol, and black carbon, but showed no detectable enhancement in particulate sulfate. Despite reduced hygroscopicity relative to ambient aerosols, ship emissions substantially increased local cloud condensation nuclei concentrations. A droplet activation parameterization was applied to quantify responses in cloud droplet number concentration ( N d ) to ship-induced perturbations in low-level Arctic clouds. In winter, abundant background accumulation-mode particles from Arctic haze supplied nearly all cloud droplets, while additional particles from ship emissions had little impact on N d . In contrast, during summer months, when unperturbed background aerosol concentrations are low, ship emissions nearly doubled N d compared to average background conditions and increased N d by a factor of five compared to very clean background conditions (25th percentile of background aerosol number concentrations). Longwave radiative transfer simulations for typical conditions of summer Arctic low-level clouds/fog suggest that these ship-induced increases in N d locally (i.e. <100 km downwind) lead to enhanced net surface longwave fluxes and consequent warming, primarily for optically thin clouds (liquid water path (LWP) ⩽ 30 g·m −2 ). For LWP = 10 g · m −2 , ship emissions lead to an increase of 1 W · m −2 in cloud longwave forcing at the surface compared to average unperturbed conditions (+7% relative increase), and up to 4 W · m −2 when compared to very clean background conditions (+22% relative increase). Even ultra-low sulfur fuel emissions can therefore locally and episodically modify Arctic cloud microphysics and radiative properties, especially during summer, implying that future increases in Arctic shipping could have non-negligible regional climate impacts.

Arctic↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of contrasting aerosol indirect effects in liquid water clouds over the northern part of Arabian Sea

The extensive daily statistics of aerosol properties, cloud properties, and their mutual correlations provide crucial information for better assessing future climate change. Here, in this paper, 14 years (2010–2023) of data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are analyzed over the northern part of Arabian Sea (Latitude: 21°–25° N and Longitude: 62°–68° E) to assess the characteristics of aerosols and clouds and their relationships under different meteorological conditions. When aerosol optical depth (AOD) is less than ~0.7, the observations exhibit a positive correlation between AOD and cloud droplet effective radius (CDR) but negative correlations between AOD and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC), between AOD and cloud optical depth (COD), between AOD and cloud liquid water path (CLWP), and between AOD and cloud geometrical thickness (H). The corresponding aerosol-cloud correlations change signs when the AOD values are larger than 0.7. However, the single folded positive AOD-cloud fraction (CF) relationship is observed in both AOD regimes. Similar correlations are also observed between precipitable water vapor (PWV) and CDR, CDNC, COD, H, CF and CLWP, together with a positive correlation between PWV and AOD. Further isolation of the environmental effects from aerosol effects by stratifying AOD and cloud data into different LTS and PWV bins shows that the signature of the well-known Twomey effect is observed under high LTS-high PWV conditions, while an opposite effect (anti-Twomey) is observed under low PWV conditions, regardless of LTS values. Additionally, negative correlations between AOD and COD, AOD and CLWP, and AOD and H are observed under low LTS, regardless of PWV conditions, with a slight positive correlation when AOD >0.4 under high LTS and PWV conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Overview of the Nephele Perturbed Parameter Ensemble for Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions in E3SMv3

Aerosol-cloud interactions (aci) are the leading source of uncertainty in inferring climate sensitivity from the historical record. Earth system models (ESMs) struggle to represent aci because the processes responsible for these phenomena occur at much finer time and space scales than can be resolved by any ESM. Observational constraints provide key benchmarks to test ESMs, but cannot be used alone to fully understand aci processes except in very specific cases where causality is controlled; some degree of modeling is required to infer aci and estimate radiative forcing. Here, we generate and characterize a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) in version 3 of the Energy Exascale ESM (E3SMv3). We perturb 25 parameters that govern aci processes over 250 members and integrate the model over present-day and preindustrial aerosol emissions. We find that the process representation in E3SMv3 is flexible and can generate global-mean effective radiative forcings due to aci (ERFaci) ranging from −3.0 to +0.9 W m −2 . The positive ERFaci values simulated by a portion of the PPE are implausible and result from parameter combinations that produce unrealistic top-of-atmosphere energy fluxes. While global-mean cloud droplet number concentration always increases in response to anthropogenic aerosol, cloud liquid water path can both increase and decrease, suggesting that precipitation suppression is not the only aerosol-cloud adjustment represented by E3SMv3. Analysis of which processes control liquid cloud adjustment in the PPE points toward stratiform precipitation processes and aerosol activation, which is consistent with many previous ESMs, as well as the new two-moment convective cloud microphysics in E3SMv3.

Nugent, Jacqueline M. [Univ. of Wyoming, Laramie, ↗

DOE OSTI2025

The NASA ACTIVATE Mission

The NASA Aerosol Cloud Meteorology Interactions over the Western Atlantic Experiment (ACTIVATE) conducted 162 joint flights with two aircraft over the northwest Atlantic to study aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs), which represent the largest uncertainty in estimating total anthropogenic radiative forcing. The combination of a high-flying King Air and low-flying HU-25 Falcon, equipped with remote sensing and in situ instruments, characterized trace gases, aerosol particles, clouds, and meteorological variables with data collected nearly simultaneously below, within, and above marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds. Flights spanning warm and cold seasons across 3 years (2020–22) provided a broad range of conditions associated with aerosol particles, cloud properties (including particle size and phase), and meteorology, ideally suited for robust ACI calculations and assessing how well models simulate a wide range of MBL clouds from stratiform to cumulus. ACTIVATE data suggest that drivers of cloud droplet number concentration N d , including aerosol particles and MBL dynamics, vary between winter and summer months with a stronger potential to convert aerosol particles into cloud droplets in winter. Models of varying complexity not only highlight some skills in simulating winter and summer cloud types but also identify challenges that still need to be addressed such as treatment of turbulence, wet scavenging, and mesoscale organization. Remote sensing advances range from new retrieval methods for N d , cloud phase classification, vertically resolved aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei number concentration, and ocean surface wind speed. This work describes these scientific and technological advances along with efforts in outreach and open data science.

aerosol indirect effect↗

DOE OSTI2025

Implementation and Evaluation of Physics-Driven Dynamic Entrainment-Mixing Parameterization in a Climate Model and Its Impact on Low-Cloud Simulation

The turbulent entrainment-mixing process in the Community Earth System Model version 1.2 (CESM1.2) is assumed to follow the extremely inhomogeneous entrainment-mixing. However, different entrainment-mixing scenarios can occur in real clouds. To address this deficiency, a unifying parameterization that represents different entrainment-mixing processes is implemented and evaluated in CESM1.2. The results indicate that the homogeneous mixing degree values simulated by the new parameterization in CESM1.2 are predominantly greater than 50%, suggesting a tendency toward homogeneous mixing. Compared to the extremely inhomogeneous mixing mechanism, the new parameterization increases the cloud droplet number concentration (Nc). More importantly, the new parameterization improves low-cloud fraction (CLDLOW) simulation in Northwest Pacific (NWP) and Southeast Pacific (SEP) regions, with relative improvements of 2.95% and 4.17%, respectively. Furthermore, the improvements reach up to 44.6% and 16.2% in the NWP and SEP regions, respectively, when considering the relationship between N c and CLDLOW. Further analysis reveals that the new parameterization enhances cloud optical depth, longwave radiative cooling effect, net condensation rate, cloud water mixing ratio, lower-troposphere stability, and CLDLOW by increasing N c . Additionally, these results underscore the importance of improving entrainment-mixing parameterization in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Surface Observations From Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Sites Constrain the Anthropogenic Contribution to Cloud Droplet Number

Uncertainty in anthropogenic forcing driven by aerosol-cloud interactions (aci) limits our ability to infer the sensitivity of the Earth system to forcing from historical records. The driver of aci is the change in cloud droplet number concentration (N d ) due to changes in aerosol serving as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Here, we combine a perturbed parameter ensemble run in a global Earth system model with observations of CCN and single-layer-cloud N d at surface sites in the Azores, the Southern Great Plains, and Ascension Island to provide a constraint on the anthropogenic contribution to present-day N d . These observational lines of evidence constrain the preindustrial to present-day change in N d to be between 11 and 43 cm −3 . This is consistent with the upper end of some previous estimates but has a higher minimum perturbation, pointing to a stronger historical aerosol cooling.

ARM↗