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Trees halve urban heat island effect globally but unequal benefits only modestly mitigate climate-change warming

Although tree cover reduces the urban heat island, no global estimate quantifies air temperature reductions by contemporary or future tree cover, currently and with climate change. Here, we estimate these reductions for all 8,919 large urban areas. Current urban tree cover mitigates 41–49% of the maximum potential air-temperature urban heat island that would occur in the absence of tree canopy. Tree canopy reduces summer air temperature by a population-weighted mean of 0.15 ± 0.03 °C, with wide variation (0.0–2.7 °C), benefiting 914 (805–1040, 95% CI) million people by >0.25 °C. Cooling benefits are greater in already cooler areas: high-income countries and suburbs. Current and plausible future tree cover mitigate only ~10% (6.7–18% and 6.3–17%, respectively) of the median mid-century climate-change warming under a moderate emission scenario. Our results suggest tree canopy expansion in densely settled low-income urban areas is necessary for equitable urban heat island mitigation and climate adaptation.

McDonald, Robert I. [The Nature Conservancy (TNC),

Action Pathways for Transforming Cities

Transformation is required for cities to fulfil their leadership potential on climate change. Five action pathways can guide them: integrate mitigation and adaptation; coordinate risk reduction and climate adaptation; cogenerate risk information; focus on disadvantaged populations; and improve governance and knowledge networks.

Civil engineering

Biodiversity loss reduces global terrestrial carbon storage

Natural ecosystems store large amounts of carbon globally, as organisms absorb carbon from the atmosphere to build large, long-lasting, or slow-decaying structures such as tree bark or root systems. An ecosystem’s carbon sequestration potential is tightly linked to its biological diversity. Yet when considering future projections, many carbon sequestration models fail to account for the role biodiversity plays in carbon storage. Here, we assess the consequences of plant biodiversity loss for carbon storage under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios. We link a macroecological model projecting changes in vascular plant richness under different scenarios with empirical data on relationships between biodiversity and biomass. We find that biodiversity declines from climate and land use change could lead to a global loss of between 7.44-103.14 PgC (global sustainability scenario) and 10.87-145.95 PgC (fossil-fueled development scenario). This indicates a self-reinforcing feedback loop, where higher levels of climate change lead to greater biodiversity loss, which in turn leads to greater carbon emissions and ultimately more climate change. Conversely, biodiversity conservation and restoration can help achieve climate change mitigation goals.

Biodiversity

Nitrogen management during decarbonization

Decarbonization is crucial to combat climate change. However, some decarbonization strategies could profoundly impact the nitrogen cycle. Here, in this Review, we explore the nitrogen requirements of five major decarbonization strategies to reveal the complex interconnections between the carbon and nitrogen cycles and identify opportunities to enhance their mutually sustainable management. Some decarbonization strategies require substantial new nitrogen production, potentially leading to increased nutrient pollution and exacerbation of eutrophication in aquatic systems. For example, the strategy of substituting 44% of fossil fuels used in marine shipping with ammonia-based fuels could reduce CO 2 emissions by up to 0.38 Gt CO 2 -eq yr -1 but would require a corresponding increase in new nitrogen synthesis of 212 Tg N yr -1 . Similarly, using biofuels to achieve 0.7 ± 0.3 Gt CO 2 -eq yr -1 mitigation would require new nitrogen inputs to croplands of 21–42 Tg N yr -1 . To avoid increasing nitrogen losses and exacerbating eutrophication, decarbonization efforts should be designed to provide carbon–nitrogen co-benefits. Reducing the use of carbon-intensive synthetic nitrogen fertilizer is one example that can simultaneously reduce both nitrogen inputs by 14 Tg N yr -1 and CO 2 emissions by 0.04 (0.03–0.06) Gt CO 2 -eq yr -1 . Future research should guide decarbonization efforts to mitigate eutrophication and enhance nitrogen use efficiency in agriculture, food and energy systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Unlocking the potential of biogas systems for energy production and climate solutions in rural communities

On-site conversion of organic waste into biogas to satisfy consumer energy demand has the potential to realize energy equality and mitigate climate change reliably. However, existing methods ignore either real-time full supply or methane escape when supply and demand are mismatched. Here, we show an improved design of community biogas production and distribution system to overcome these and achieve full co-benefits in developing economies. We take five existing systems as empirical examples. Mechanisms of synergistic adjusting out-of-step biogas flow rates on both the plant-side and user-side are defined to obtain consumption-to-production ratios of close to 1, such that biogas demand of rural inhabitants can be met. Furthermore, carbon mitigation and its viability under universal prevailing climates are illustrated. Coupled with manure management optimization, Chinese national deployment of the proposed system would contribute a 3.77% reduction towards meeting its global 1.5 °C target. Additionally, fulfilling others’ energy demands has considerable decarbonization potential.

09 BIOMASS FUELS

China’s carbon sinks from land-use change underestimated

The size and attribution of the regional net carbon flux from land-use change (LUC) activities (E LUC ) are often highly debated, especially in regions such as China, which has experienced decades-long extensive reforestation activities. Here, in this work, using a LUC dataset incorporating remote-sensing and national forest inventory data with two modelling approaches, we show that E LUC in China shifted from a carbon source to a sink in the 1990s, contributing to a net cumulative CO 2 removal of 2.0 Pg C during 1981–2020. From 2001 to 2020, the average E LUC was -0.14 Pg C yr -1 , accounting for over one-third of the national land carbon sinks. Forest-related LUC activities contributed greatly to national carbon fluxes, while non-forest-related activities played a dominant role in certain areas. Our findings suggest that the carbon sinks from LUC activities in China may be largely underestimated in global assessments, underscoring the need to develop region-specific modelling for evaluation and potential regulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Aerial imagery dataset of lost oil wells

Orphaned wells are wells for which the operator is unknown or insolvent. The location of hundreds of thousands of these wells remain unknown in the United States alone. Cost-effective techniques are essential to locate orphaned wells to address environmental problems. In this paper, we present a dataset consisting of 120,948 aerial images of recently documented orphan wells. Each of these 512 × 512 images is paired with segmentation masks that indicate the presence or absence of such well. These images, sourced from the National Agriculture Imagery Program, cover the continental United States with spatial resolutions ranging from 30 centimeters to 1 meter. Additionally, we included negative examples by selecting locations uniformly across the United States. Accompanying metadata includes the IDs and spatial resolution of the original images, which are available for free through the United States Geological Survey, and the pixel coordinates of documented orphaned wells identified in these images. This dataset is intended to support the development of deep-learning models that can help locating undocumented orphan wells from such imagery, thereby blunting the environmental damage they do.

Climate-change mitigation

Tethered oxygen turns methane into methanol

Precise control of the oxidant — that is, preventing overoxidation — is the missing link in low-temperature methane upgrading. Now, the electro-splitting of carbonate on rutile IrO 2 is shown to cover the surface with on-top oxygen adatoms that act as tethered, single-step hydrogen abstractors. One subset can pull the hydrogen from methane to form a methoxy intermediate, while the neighbouring site can protonate this intermediate to form methanol. Together, this mechanism delivers a room-temperature conversion of methane to methanol with >90% selectivity.

climate-change mitigation

Optimization of floodwater redistribution from Lake Nasser could recharge Egypt’s aquifers and mitigate its excessive floods

Extreme precipitation periods, possibly related to climate change, over the Nile River source areas caused flooding in Sudan and excess runoff reaching Lake Nasser in Egypt in 1998–2002 and 2019–2022. Excess water from the 1st event (25.5 × 10 9 m 3 ) was channeled to depressions within the plateau west of the Nile Valley, forming the Tushka Lakes, where it was left to evaporate, a fate that awaits the 53.5 × 10 9 m 3 from the 2nd event while the underlying fossil Nubian Sandstone Aquifer System is being depleted (–0.98 × 10 9 m 3 /yr). We simulated release scenarios of excess Lake Nasser waters (53.5 × 10 9 m 3 ) to proximal lowlands; preference was given to the scenario that recharged the aquifer through infiltration (74.3%) and minimized losses to evaporation (20.1%) and surface runoff (5.6%). Findings serve as an example of adaptations that replace catastrophic consequences of climate change with beneficial and sustainable development opportunities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Quantified, Localized Health Benefits of Accelerated Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reductions

Societal risks increase as Earth warms, and increase further for emissions trajectories accepting relatively high levels of near-term emissions while assuming future negative emissions will compensate, even if they lead to identical warming as trajectories with reduced near-term emissions. Accelerating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions, including as a substitute for negative emissions, hence reduces long-term risks but requires dramatic near-term societal transformations. A major barrier to emissions reductions is the difficulty of reconciling immediate, localized costs with global, long-term benefits. However, 2 C trajectories not relying on negative emissions or 1.5 C trajectories require elimination of most fossil-fuel-related emissions. This generally reduces co-emissions that cause ambient air pollution, resulting in near-term, localized health benefits. We therefore examine the human health benefits of increasing 21st-century CO2 reductions by 180 GtC, an amount that would shift a 'standard' 2 C scenario to 1.5 C or could achieve 2 C without negative emissions. The decreased air pollution leads to 153 +/- 43 million fewer premature deaths worldwide, with approx.40% occurring during the next 40 years, and minimal climate disbenefits. More than a million premature deaths would be prevented in many metropolitan areas in Asia and Africa, and greater than 200,000 in individual urban areas on every inhabited continent except Australia.

Atmospheric science

Clean Air Policies Are Key for Successfully Mitigating Arctic Warming

A tighter integration of modeling frameworks for climate and air quality is urgently needed to assess the impacts of clean air policies on future Arctic and global climate. We combined a new model emulator and comprehensive emissions scenarios for air pollutants and greenhouse gases to assess climate and human health co-benefits of emissions reductions. Fossil fuel use is projected to rapidly decline in an increasingly sustainable world, resulting in far-reaching air quality benefits. Despite human health benefits, reductions in sulfur emissions in a more sustainable world could enhance Arctic warming by 0.8 °C in 2050 relative to the 1995–2014, thereby offsetting climate benefits of greenhouse gas reductions. Targeted and technically feasible emissions reduction opportunities exist for achieving simultaneous climate and human health co-benefits. It would be particularly beneficial to unlock a newly identified mitigation potential for carbon particulate matter, yielding Arctic climate benefits equivalent to those from carbon dioxide reductions by 2050.

Atmospheric chemistry

Pathways for urgent action towards climate resilient development

There is a closing window of opportunity to ensure a sustainable future for all, with deep and rapid action needed this decade. Inclusive and just climate resilient development advances sustainable development and keeps open pathways to a liveable planet but requires urgent and fundamental shifts in prevailing development politics and practice.

Climate-change mitigation

Multisectoral Climate Impact Hotspots in a Warming World

The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 degC above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 degC. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty.

policies

Assessing the impact of climate change on rainfall-triggered landslides: a case study in California

Landslides are widespread natural hazards which take a heavy toll on lives, property, and infrastructure each year. In January 2023 and 2024, widespread landslides occurred in California as a result of extreme winter precipitation. Estimating the regional evolution of landslide hazard in a changing climate is essential for adaptation planning and risk mitigation efforts. The complex effects of climate change on landslide hazard, however, are poorly understood. Here, we use climate and landslide observations to develop a novel data-driven approach for landslide susceptibility assessment under historical and future climate conditions. We apply this framework to investigate the evolution of landslide susceptibility in California and its impacts on the roadway system based on downscaled climate projections under moderate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. On average, the results indicate an increase in landslide susceptibility through 2100 in regions where historical susceptibility is moderate to very high. Although the spatio-temporal variations in landslide susceptibility are sensitive to climate model uncertainties in predicting extreme rainfall, the direst impacts are largely circumvented in lower emission scenarios.

Climate Change