Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “climate impact”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2011

Cross-Polar Aircraft Trajectory Optimization and Potential Climate Impact

Cross-Polar routes offer new opportunities for air travel markets. Transpolar flights reduce travel times, fuel burns, and associated environmental emissions by flying direct paths between many North American and Asian cities. This study evaluates the potential benefits of flying wind-optimal polar routes and assessed their potential impact on climate change. An optimization algorithm is developed for transpolar flights to generate wind-optimal trajectories that minimize climate impact of aircraft, in terms of global warming potentials (relative to warming by one kg of CO2) of several types of emissions, while avoiding regions of airspace that facilitate persistent contrail formation. Estimations of global warming potential are incorporated into the objective function of the optimization algorithm to assess the climate impact of aircraft emissions discharged at a given location and altitude. The regions of airspace with very low ambient temperature and areas favorable to persistent contrail formation are modeled as undesirable regions that aircraft should avoid and are formulated as soft state constraints. The fuel burn and climate impact of cross-polar air traffic flying various types of trajectory including flightplan, great circle, wind-optimal, and contrail-avoidance are computed for 15 origin-destination pairs between major international airports in the U.S. and Asia. Wind-optimal routes reduce average fuel burn of flight plan routes by 4.4% on December 4, 2010 and 8.0% on August 7, 2010, respectively. The tradeoff between persistent contrail formation and additional global warming potential of aircraft emissions is investigated with and without altitude optimization. Without altitude optimization, the reduction in contrail travel times is gradual with increase in total fuel consumption. When altitude is optimized, a one percent increase in additional global warming potential, a climate impact equivalent to that of 4070kg and 4220kg CO2 emission, reduces 135 and 105 minutes persistent contrail formation per flight during a day with medium and high contrail formation, respectively.

Sridhar, Banavar↗
NASA NTRS2011

Cross-Polar Aircraft Trajectory Optimization and the Potential Climate Impact

Cross-Polar routes offer new opportunities for air travel markets. Transpolar flights reduce travel times, fuel burns, and associated environmental emissions by flying direct paths between many North American and Asian cities. This study evaluates the potential benefits of flying wind-optimal polar routes and assessed their potential impact on climate change. An optimization algorithm is developed for transpolar flights to generate wind-optimal trajectories that minimize climate impact of aircraft, in terms of global warming potentials (relative to warming by one kg of CO2) of several types of emissions, while avoiding regions of airspace that facilitate persistent contrail formation. Estimations of global warming potential are incorporated into the objective function of the optimization algorithm to assess the climate impact of aircraft emissions discharged at a given location and altitude. The regions of airspace with very low ambient temperature and areas favorable to persistent contrail formation are modeled as undesirable regions that aircraft should avoid and are formulated as soft state constraints. The fuel burn and climate impact of cross-polar air traffic flying various types of trajectory including flight plan, great circle, wind-optimal, and contrail-avoidance are computed for 15 origin-destination pairs between major international airports in the U.S. and Asia. Wind-optimal routes reduce average fuel burn of flight plan routes by 4.4% on December 4, 2010 and 8.0% on August 7, 2010, respectively. The tradeoff between persistent contrail formation and additional global warming potential of aircraft emissions is investigated with and without altitude optimization. Without altitude optimization, the reduction in contrail travel times is gradual with increase in total fuel consumption. When altitude is optimized, a one percent increase in additional global warming potential, a climate impact equivalent to that of 4070kg and 4220kg CO2 emission, reduces 135 and 105 minutes persistent contrail formation per flight during a day with medium and high contrail formation, respectively.

Ng, Hok K.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Projecting exposure to extreme climate impact events across six event categories and three spatial scales

The extent and impact of climate‐related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well as on human factors such as land use or population density. Here we quantify the pure effect of historical and future climate change on the exposure of land and population to extreme climate impact events using an unprecedentedly large ensemble of harmonized climate impact simulations from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. Our results indicate that global warming has already more than doubled both the global land area and the global population annually exposed to all six categories of extreme events considered: river floods, tropical cyclones, crop failure, wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves. Global warming of 2°C relative to preindustrial conditions is projected to lead to a more than five‐fold increase in cross‐category aggregate exposure globally. Changes in exposure are unevenly distributed, with tropical and subtropical regions facing larger increases than higher latitudes. The largest increases in overall exposure are projected for the population of South Asia.

climate‐related extreme events↗
NASA NTRS2016

Role of Atmospheric Chemistry in the Climate Impacts of Stratospheric Volcanic Injections

The climate impact of a volcanic eruption is known to be dependent on the size, location and timing of the eruption. However, the chemistry and composition of the volcanic plume also control its impact on climate. It is not just sulfur dioxide gas, but also the coincident emissions of water, halogens and ash that influence the radiative and climate forcing of an eruption. Improvements in the capability of models to capture aerosol microphysics, and the inclusion of chemistry and aerosol microphysics modules in Earth system models, allow us to evaluate the interaction of composition and chemistry within volcanic plumes in a new way. These modeling efforts also illustrate the role of water vapor in controlling the chemical evolution, and hence climate impacts, of the plume. A growing realization of the importance of the chemical composition of volcanic plumes is leading to a more sophisticated and realistic representation of volcanic forcing in climate simulations, which in turn aids in reconciling simulations and proxy reconstructions of the climate impacts of past volcanic eruptions. More sophisticated simulations are expected to help, eventually, with predictions of the impact on the Earth system of any future large volcanic eruptions.

Disrupting↗
NASA NTRS2014

Identification of Flights for Cost-Efficient Climate Impact Reduction

The aircraft-induced climate impact has drawn attention in recent years. Aviation operations affect the environment mainly through the release of carbon-dioxide, nitrogen-oxides, and by the formation of contrails. Recent research has shown that altering trajectories can reduce aviation environmental cost by reducing Absolute Global Temperature Change Potential, a climate assessment metric that adapts a linear system for modeling the global temperature response to aviation emissions and contrails. However, these methods will increase fuel consumption that leads to higher fuel costs imposed on airlines. The goal of this work is to identify ights for which the environmental cost of climate impact reduction outweighs the increase in operational cost on an individual aircraft basis. Environmental cost is quanti ed using the monetary social cost of carbon. The increase in operational cost is considering cost of additional fuel usage only. For this paper, an algorithm has been developed that modi es the trajectories of ights to evaluate the e ect of environ- mental cost and operational cost of ights in the United States National Airspace System. The algorithm identi es ights for which the environmental cost of climate impact can be reduced and modi es their trajectories to achieve maximum environmental net bene t, which is the di erence between reduction in environmental cost and additional operational cost. The result shows on a selected day, 16% of the ights among eight major airlines, or 2,043 ights, can achieve environmental net bene t using weather forecast data, resulting in net bene t of around $500,000. The result also suggests that the long-haul ights would be better candidates for cost-ecient climate impact reduction than the short haul ights. The algorithm will help to identify the characteristics of ights that are capable of applying cost-ecient climate impact reduction strategy.

climate impact reduction↗
NASA NTRS2015

A Framework for the Cross-Sectoral Integration of Multi-Model Impact Projections: Land Use Decisions Under Climate Impacts Uncertainties

Climate change and its impacts already pose considerable challenges for societies that will further increase with global warming (IPCC, 2014a, b). Uncertainties of the climatic response to greenhouse gas emissions include the potential passing of large-scale tipping points (e.g. Lenton et al., 2008; Levermann et al., 2012; Schellnhuber, 2010) and changes in extreme meteorological events (Field et al., 2012) with complex impacts on societies (Hallegatte et al., 2013). Thus climate change mitigation is considered a necessary societal response for avoiding uncontrollable impacts (Conference of the Parties, 2010). On the other hand, large-scale climate change mitigation itself implies fundamental changes in, for example, the global energy system. The associated challenges come on top of others that derive from equally important ethical imperatives like the fulfilment of increasing food demand that may draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of cropland, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy production. So far, available studies addressing this problem have relied on individual impact models, ignoring uncertainty in crop model and biome model projections. Here, we propose a probabilistic decision framework that allows for an evaluation of agricultural management and mitigation options in a multi-impactmodel setting. Based on simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP), we outline how cross-sectorally consistent multi-model impact simulations could be used to generate the information required for robust decision making. Using an illustrative future land use pattern, we discuss the trade-off between potential gains in crop production and associated losses in natural carbon sinks in the new multiple crop- and biome-model setting. In addition, crop and water model simulations are combined to explore irrigation increases as one possible measure of agricultural intensification that could limit the expansion of cropland required in response to climate change and growing food demand. This example shows that current impact model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and must not be ignored in long-term strategic decision making

farmlands↗
NASA NTRS2009

Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts

This report critically reviews current knowledge about global distributions and properties of atmospheric aerosols, as they relate to aerosol impacts on climate. It assesses possible next steps aimed at substantially reducing uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing estimates. Current measurement techniques and modeling approaches are summarized, providing context. As a part of the Synthesis and Assessment Product in the Climate Change Science Program, this assessment builds upon recent related assessments, including the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4, 2007) and other Climate Change Science Program reports. The objectives of this report are (1) to promote a consensus about the knowledge base for climate change decision support, and (2) to provide a synthesis and integration of the current knowledge of the climate-relevant impacts of anthropogenic aerosols for policy makers, policy analysts, and general public, both within and outside the U.S government and worldwide.

Chin, Mian↗
NASA NTRS2021

Climate Impacts on Global Agriculture Emerge Earlier in New Generation of Climate and Crop Models

Potential climate-related impacts on future crop yield are a major societal concern. Previous projections of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project’s Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 identified substantial climate impacts on all major crops, but associated uncertainties were substantial. Here we report new twenty-first-century projections using ensembles of latest-generation crop and climate models. Results suggest markedly more pessimistic yield responses for maize, soybean and rice compared to the original ensemble. Mean end-of-century maize productivity is shifted from +5% to −6% (SSP126) and from +1% to −24% (SSP585)—explained by warmer climate projections and improved crop model sensitivities. In contrast, wheat shows stronger gains (+9% shifted to +18%, SSP585), linked to higher CO 2 concentrations and expanded high-latitude gains. The ‘emergence’ of climate impacts consistently occurs earlier in the new projections—before 2040 for several main producing regions. While future yield estimates remain uncertain, these results suggest that major breadbasket regions will face distinct anthropogenic climatic risks sooner than previously anticipated.

crop model↗
NASA NTRS1990

Climate Impact of Solar Variability

The conference on The Climate Impact of Solar Variability, was held at Goddard Space Flight Center from April 24 to 27, 1990. In recent years they developed a renewed interest in the potential effects of increasing greenhouse gases on climate. Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and the chlorofluorocarbons have been increasing at rates that could significantly change climate. There is considerable uncertainty over the magnitude of this anthropogenic change. The climate system is very complex, with feedback processes that are not fully understood. Moreover, there are two sources of natural climate variability (volcanic aerosols and solar variability) added to the anthropogenic changes which may confuse our interpretation of the observed temperature record. Thus, if we could understand the climatic impact of the natural variability, it would aid our interpretation and understanding of man-made climate changes.

Schatten, Kenneth H.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Multisectoral Climate Impact Hotspots in a Warming World

The impacts of global climate change on different aspects of humanity's diverse life-support systems are complex and often difficult to predict. To facilitate policy decisions on mitigation and adaptation strategies, it is necessary to understand, quantify, and synthesize these climate-change impacts, taking into account their uncertainties. Crucial to these decisions is an understanding of how impacts in different sectors overlap, as overlapping impacts increase exposure, lead to interactions of impacts, and are likely to raise adaptation pressure. As a first step we develop herein a framework to study coinciding impacts and identify regional exposure hotspots. This framework can then be used as a starting point for regional case studies on vulnerability and multifaceted adaptation strategies. We consider impacts related to water, agriculture, ecosystems, and malaria at different levels of global warming. Multisectoral overlap starts to be seen robustly at a mean global warming of 3 degC above the 1980-2010 mean, with 11% of the world population subject to severe impacts in at least two of the four impact sectors at 4 degC. Despite these general conclusions, we find that uncertainty arising from the impact models is considerable, and larger than that from the climate models. In a low probability-high impact worst-case assessment, almost the whole inhabited world is at risk for multisectoral pressures. Hence, there is a pressing need for an increased research effort to develop a more comprehensive understanding of impacts, as well as for the development of policy measures under existing uncertainty.

policies↗
NASA NTRS2016

Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions Modulate Irrigation's Climate Impacts

Numerous studies have focused on the local and regional climate effects of irrigated agriculture and other land cover and land use change (LCLUC) phenomena, but there are few studies on the role of ocean- atmosphere interaction in modulating irrigation climate impacts. Here, we compare simulations with and without interactive sea surface temperatures of the equilibrium effect on climate of contemporary (year 2000) irrigation geographic extent and intensity. We find that ocean-atmosphere interaction does impact the magnitude of global-mean and spatially varying climate impacts, greatly increasing their global reach. Local climate effects in the irrigated regions remain broadly similar, while non-local effects, particularly over the oceans, tend to be larger. The interaction amplifies irrigation-driven standing wave patterns in the tropics and mid-latitudes in our simulations, approximately doubling the global-mean amplitude of surface temperature changes due to irrigation. The fractions of global area experiencing significant annual-mean surface air temperature and precipitation change also approximately double with ocean-atmosphere interaction. Subject to confirmation with other models, these findings imply that LCLUC is an important contributor to climate change even in remote areas such as the Southern Ocean, and that attribution studies should include interactive oceans and need to consider LCLUC, including irrigation, as a truly global forcing that affects climate and the water cycle over ocean as well as land areas.

Air water interactioins↗
NASA NTRS2014

Reply to Comment by Cole-dai Et Al. on "Climatic Impact of the Long-lasting Laki Eruption: Inapplicability of Mass-independent Sulfur Isotope Composition Measurements"

Here we respond to the comments by Cole-Dai et al. [2014] on our article Schmidt et al. [2012]. Specifically, in response to section 2 of their reply, we argued in Schmidt et al. [2012] that based on previously published estimates of the volatile release height during the 1783-1784 C.E. Laki eruption, the lack of a sulfur massindependent fractionation (MIF) anomaly is expected. In other words, no previous study on Laki ever argued that this eruption emitted SO2 into altitudes >13-15 km. In section 2.3, Cole-Dai et al. [2014] argue that the nonzero Δ33S value of their Laki sample 1 may be explained by a short-lived explosive phase at Laki during which volatiles reached the stratosphere. In Schmidt et al. [2012] in section 2, we argued in agreement with Cole-Dai et al. [2014] (section 3.1) that for a MIF anomaly to be preserved, the Laki volatiles would have had to be emitted in >20 km altitude. Our main point is that eruption column heights >20 km are unlikely based on the historical accounts and plume-rise modeling for the Laki eruption [Stothers et al., 1986; Woods, 1993; Thordarson and Self, 2003]. In Schmidt et al. [2012], we argued that to deduce a short-lived climatic impact of the Laki eruption based on the lack of a MIF anomaly and the length of the sulfate deposition in Greenland ice cores may be misleading because the climatic impact will outlast the radiative forcing of the Laki aerosol cloud. Cole-Dai et al. [2014] acknowledge the latter in their reply in section 4.2. We agreewith Cole-Dai et al. [2014] in that themagnitude and length of the climatic impact during the winter of 1783-1784 depends on the altitude of the volatile release during the eruption (sections 2.3 and 4.2). However, even if we assumed that during Laki all sulfur dioxide (SO2) would have been released in the troposphere, then the aerosol cloud would still be present in the upper troposphere during March 1784, as is evident from independent model simulations of this "tropospheric-only" scenario [Stevenson et al., 2003]. We acknowledge that there is uncertainty on the volatile release height for Laki; however, it is worth considering that those climate model simulations that used an injection altitude between 9 km and 13 km for the Laki SO2 [Highwood and Stevenson, 2003; Oman et al., 2006a, 2006b; Schmidt et al., 2012] best match the observed temperature changes during summer of 1783 [Angell and Korshover, 1985; Brázdil et al., 2010; Briffa et al., 1998; D'Arrigo and Jacoby, 1999; Jacoby et al., 1999; Kington, 1988; Manley, 1974; Parker et al., 1992; Thordarson and Self, 2003]. Based on these model simulations, a climatic impact during the winter of 1783-1784, albeit weaker than during the climactic phases of Laki, is expected (and our argument here does not exclude the role of natural variability in contributing to the cold winter of 1783-1784 as discussed in Schmidt et al. [2012]). Therefore, we continue to argue that for high-latitude eruptions such as Laki, the applicability of sulfur isotopic measurements to interpret the climatic relevance has yet to be demonstrated. Itmay transpire that the interpretation of MIF signals for the climate-relevance of an eruption is valid and unambiguous only for short-lived explosive eruptions in the tropics. In terms of the processes producing a MIF anomaly (section 3.3 in Cole-Dai et al. [2014]), the works by Hattori et al. [2013] and Ono et al. [2013] suggest that there are remaining issues not discussed by Cole-Dai et al. [2014], for instance, self-shielding of SO2 due to high column densities typical for eruptions of Pinatubo-scale and greater, and the preservation of the MIF signature in general.

general circulation model↗
NASA NTRS2013

Long-term Ozone Changes and Associated Climate Impacts in CMIP5 Simulations

Ozone changes and associated climate impacts in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations are analyzed over the historical (1960-2005) and future (2006-2100) period under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). In contrast to CMIP3, where half of the models prescribed constant stratospheric ozone, CMIP5 models all consider past ozone depletion and future ozone recovery. Multimodel mean climatologies and long-term changes in total and tropospheric column ozone calculated from CMIP5 models with either interactive or prescribed ozone are in reasonable agreement with observations. However, some large deviations from observations exist for individual models with interactive chemistry, and these models are excluded in the projections. Stratospheric ozone projections forced with a single halogen, but four greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios show largest differences in the northern midlatitudes and in the Arctic in spring (approximately 20 and 40 Dobson units (DU) by 2100, respectively). By 2050, these differences are much smaller and negligible over Antarctica in austral spring. Differences in future tropospheric column ozone are mainly caused by differences in methane concentrations and stratospheric input, leading to approximately 10DU increases compared to 2000 in RCP 8.5. Large variations in stratospheric ozone particularly in CMIP5 models with interactive chemistry drive correspondingly large variations in lower stratospheric temperature trends. The results also illustrate that future Southern Hemisphere summertime circulation changes are controlled by both the ozone recovery rate and the rate of GHG increases, emphasizing the importance of simulating and taking into account ozone forcings when examining future climate projections.

tropospheric ozone↗
NASA NTRS1982

Atmospheric Effects and Potential Climatic Impact of the 1980 Eruptions of Mount St. Helens

Measurements and studies of the 1980 Mount St. Helens volcanic eruptions and their atmospheric effects and climatic impact are addressed. Specific areas discussed include: (1) nature and impact of volcanic eruptions; (2) in situ measurements of effluents; (3) remote sensing measurements; (4) transport and dispersion of volcanic effluents; (5) chemistry of volcanic effluents; and (6) weather and potential climate impact.

Adarsh Deepak↗
NASA NTRS1992

Potential climate impact of Mount Pinatubo eruption

The GISS global-climate model is used to make a preliminary estimate of Mount Pinatubo's climate impact. Assuming the aerosol optical depth is nearly twice as great as for the 1982 El Chichon eruption, the model forecasts a dramatic but temporary break in recent global warming trends. The simulations indicate that Pinatubo occurred too late in the year to prevent 1991 from becoming one of the warmest years in instrumental records, but intense aerosol cooling is predicted to begin late in 1991 and to maximize late in 1992. The predicted cooling is sufficiently large that by mid 1992 it should even overwhelm global warming associated with an El Nino that appears to be developing, but the El Nino could shift the time of minimum global temperature into 1993. The model predicts a return to record warm levels in the later 1990s. The effect is estimated of the predicted global cooling on such practical matters as the severity of the coming Soviet winter and the dates of cherry blossoming next spring.

Hansen, James↗
NASA NTRS2014

Three-Dimensional Trajectory Design for Reducing Climate Impact of Trans-Atlantic Flights

The impact of aircraft emissions and contrails on the environment adds an additional aspect to aircraft trajectory optimization. This study developed a three-dimensional trajectory optimization algorithm for trans-Atlantic flights in cruise to generate aircraft trajectories that minimize environmental impacts due to CO2 emissions and contrails in the presence of winds. The climate-optimal trajectory is developed using dynamic programming that adjusts a wind-optimal aircraft heading while determining the optimal locations, altitudes and times for en-route step climbs. Flying wind-optimal routes minimize aircraft travel time, fuel burn and associated emissions during cruise while adjusting aircraft heading and en-route step climbs at the optimal locations and times minimize climate impact of contrails. This capability integrates an air traffic management simulation with aircraft fuel burn and emissions models, contrail formation and dispersion models, simplified climate response models, and a common climate metric. A study was conducted to evaluate the potential cost and benefits of flying climate-optimal routes in North Atlantic Airspace and their impacts to the Organized Track System design based on the trans-Atlantic air traffic during a day, July 12, 2012. Results show eastbound flights achieved a larger environmental benefit with less additional fuel burn than westbound flights that operated in strong headwinds that caused more additional fuel burn and aircraft emissions to avoid traversing contrails favorable regions.

climate impact of aviation↗
NASA NTRS2003

Climate Impacts on Tropospheric Ozone and Hydroxyl

Climate change may influence tropospheric ozone and OH via several main pathways: (1) altering chemistry via temperature and humidity changes, (2) changing ozone and precursor sources via surface emissions, stratosphere-troposphere exchange, and light- ning, and (3) affecting trace gas sinks via the hydrological cycle and dry deposition. We report results from a set of coupled chemistry-climate model simulations designed to systematically study these effects. We compare the various effects with one another and with past and projected future changes in anthropogenic and natural emissions of ozone precursors. We find that white the overall impact of climate on ozone is probably small compared to emission changes, some significant seasonal and regional effects are apparent. The global effect on hydroxyl is quite large, however, similar in size to the effect of emission changes. Additionally, we show that many of the chemistry-climate links that are not yet adequately modeled are potentially important.

Shindell, Drew T.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Assessment of the APCC Coupled MME Suite in Predicting the Distinctive Climate Impacts of Two Flavors of ENSO during Boreal Winter

Forecast skill of the APEC Climate Center (APCC) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) seasonal forecast system in predicting two main types of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), namely canonical (or cold tongue) and Modoki ENSO, and their regional climate impacts is assessed for boreal winter. The APCC MME is constructed by simple composite of ensemble forecasts from five independent coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. Based on a hindcast set targeting boreal winter prediction for the period 19822004, we show that the MME can predict and discern the important differences in the patterns of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly between the canonical and Modoki ENSO one and four month ahead. Importantly, the four month lead MME beats the persistent forecast. The MME reasonably predicts the distinct impacts of the canonical ENSO, including the strong winter monsoon rainfall over East Asia, the below normal rainfall and above normal temperature over Australia, the anomalously wet conditions across the south and cold conditions over the whole area of USA, and the anomalously dry conditions over South America. However, there are some limitations in capturing its regional impacts, especially, over Australasia and tropical South America at a lead time of one and four months. Nonetheless, forecast skills for rainfall and temperature over East Asia and North America during ENSO Modoki are comparable to or slightly higher than those during canonical ENSO events.

Jeong, Hye-In↗