Cost-function characterization of systems
Cost function characterizations of dynamical control systems - Markov transition cost functions
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Cost function characterizations of dynamical control systems - Markov transition cost functions
A brief description of the necessary elements of the Satellite Power System is presented. This reference system provides the basis for making preliminary cost estimates.
Despite challenges with data quality and scope, low-cost sensor networks have skyrocketed in popularity over the last 15 years, making air quality data available on refined spatial scales. More recently, studies have leveraged both high and low-quality instruments to create stronger “hybrid” models, with most studies focusing on particulate matter. Low-cost measurements typically represent ground-level emissions only, providing context for human health issues from climate change-driven events such as wildfires. Since low-cost sensors’ capabilities are localized, daily events and microclimates tend to dominate the data rather than larger regional or atmospheric trends. Likewise, their low cost explains their high uncertainty. In contrast, some regulatory-grade instruments produce column measurements as well, providing reliable information on a broader scope. To bridge this gap while expanding into gas-phase measurements, we deployed 12 air quality sensor packages in California, USA during the 2022 wildfire season. These INSTEP (Inexpensive Network Sensor Technology Exploring Pollution) monitors measure carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (O3), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and several hydrocarbons including methane (CH4) and formaldehyde (HCHO). Half of the monitors were co-located with remote sensing spectrometers: NASA Pandora and Total Column Carbon Observing Network (TCCON). The overlap in pollutants includes NO2, O3, and HCHO between the INSTEP monitors and the Pandora column measurements. TCCON covers column CO, CO2, and CH4, rounding out our comparison. Most of the monitors were distributed throughout the San Francisco Bay area, and an additional three were located within 100 km of Los Angeles. The sites ranged in geographic and population characteristics, including desert, mountainous, coastal, and urban locations. Since varying environmental conditions such as temperature and pressure are known to challenge sensor performance, we will apply newer sensor “calibration” techniques meant to combat this. We will normalize our sensor signals by z-scoring them prior to applying a single calibration model in the form of multivariate linear regression or an artificial neural network. While this technique has been validated for the hydrocarbon and ozone sensor types (metal oxide), it has not yet been tested on electrochemical and non-dispersive infrared sensors, which are also used in the INSTEP monitors. This will serve as a test to see if this normalization technique – or another – is most effective in accounting for environmental differences among sensors. Related data analysis efforts have found success with a variety of geospatial analysis techniques, including weighted network models in which high-quality instruments are given higher weights than their low-cost counterparts. Our preliminary analysis will focus on kriging, which uses a Gaussian algorithm to assign weights, providing estimated pollution levels at locations between monitors. Smoke trajectory and evolution will also be considered using both measurement types. We also aim to baseline subtract our emission estimates from each region to determine which portion of emissions are regional and local, further characterizing burn differences in northern and southern California fires. Future directions include using INSTEP jointly with TEMPO satellite data, and mobile deployments on aircraft and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV).
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In this paper we characterize and model the cost of rework in a Component Factory (CF) organization. A CF is responsible for developing and packaging reusable software components. Data was collected on corrective maintenance activities for the Generalized Support Software reuse asset library located at the Flight Dynamics Division of NASA's GSFC. We then constructed a predictive model of the cost of rework using the C4.5 system for generating a logical classification model. The predictor variables for the model are measures of internal software product attributes. The model demonstrates good prediction accuracy, and can be used by managers to allocate resources for corrective maintenance activities. Furthermore, we used the model to generate proscriptive coding guidelines to improve programming, practices so that the cost of rework can be reduced in the future. The general approach we have used is applicable to other environments.
Historically, spacesuit mobility has been characterized by directly measuring both range of motion and joint torque of individual anatomic joints. The work detailed herein aims to improve on this method, which is often prone to uncertainly, lack of repeatability, and a general lack of applicability to real-world functional tasks. Specifically, the goal of this work is to characterize suited mobility performance by directly measuring the metabolic performance of the occupant. Pilot testing was conducted in 2013, employing three subjects performing a range of functional tasks in two different suits prototypes, the Mark III and Z-1. Cursory analysis of the results shows the approach has merit, with consistent performance trends toward one suit over the other. Forward work includes the need to look at more subjects, a refined task set, and another suit in a different mass/mobility regime to validate the approach.
Spacesuit mobility has historically been defined and characterized by a combination of range of motion and joint torque of the individual anatomical joints when performing isolated motions meant to drive that joint only in a given orthogonal plane. While this has been the standard approach for several decades, there are numerous shortcomings that suit designers and engineers would like to see rectified. First, the lack of a standardized method for collecting both range of motion and joint torque translates to many different test setups, procedures and methods of data analysis. Second, all of these previously used methods for data collection lack some degree of repeatability, even within the same test setup and the same conductor; in addition, attempts at higher fidelity data collection techniques require high overhead and cost with minimal improvement. Lastly, isolated motions in standard anatomical planes are not representative of real‐world tasks that a crewmember would be performing during an EVA, be it microgravity or surface exploration based. To address these shortcomings, options are being explored within the Space Suit and Crew Survival Systems Branch to ascertain the feasibility of an alternative approach to defining mobility - one that is more repeatable, lower overhead, and more tied to functional EVA tasks. This paper serves to document the first attempt at such an alternative option - one that looks at the metabolic energy‐cost of a spacesuit. In other words, can we objectively compare the mobility of a spacesuit by evaluating the metabolic cost of that suit to the wearer while performing a battery of functional EVA tasks?
Cost growth characterization is a critical factor for effective cost risk analysis and project planning. This study analyzed low level budget changes in Jet Propulsion Laboratory-managed space science missions, which occurred during the development of the project. The data was then curve fit, according to cost distribution categories, to provide a reference set of distribution parameters with sufficient granularity to effectively model cost growth in robotic space science missions.
Lunar Flashlight is an innovative NASA CubeSat mission dedicated to mapping water ice in the permanently shadowed regions of the Moon, which may act as cold traps for volatiles. To this end, a multi-band reflectometer will be sent to orbit the Moon. This instrument consists of an optical receiver aligned with four lasers, each of which emits sequentially at a different wavelength in the near-infrared between 1 μm and 2 μm. The receiver measures the laser light reflected from the lunar surface; continuum/absorption band ratios are then analyzed to quantify water ice in the illuminated spot. Here, we present the current state of the optical receiver design. To optimize the optical signal-to-noise ratio, we have designed the receiver so as to maximize the laser signal collected, while minimizing the stray light reaching the detector from solar-illuminated areas of the lunar surface outside the field-of-view, taking into account the complex lunar topography. Characterization plans are also discussed. This highly mass- and volume-constrained mission will demonstrate several firsts, including being one of the first CubeSats performing science measurements beyond low Earth orbit.
A targeting scheme is presented to build trajectories from a specified Earth parking orbit to a specified low lunar orbit via a low-energy transfer and up to two maneuvers. The total transfer delta V (velocity) is characterized as a function of the Earth parking orbit inclination and the departure date for transfers to each given low lunar orbit. The transfer delta V (velocity) cost is characterized for transfers constructed to low lunar polar orbits with any longitude of ascending node and for transfers that arrive at the Moon at any given time during a month.
Aerojet is developing the technology for the design of a reliable, low cost, efficient, and lightweight LOX/RP-1 pressure fed engine. This technology program is a direct result of Aerojet's liquid rocket booster (LRB) study and previous NASA studies that identified liquid engines using high bulk density hydrocarbon fuels as very attractive for a space transportation system (STS). Previous large thrust LOX/RP-1 engine development programs were characterized by costly development problems due to combustion instability damage. The combustion stability solution was typically obtained through trial and error methods of minimizing instability damage by degrading engine performance. The approach to this program was to utilize existing and newly developed combustion analysis models and design methodology to create a thrust chamber design with features having the potential of producing reliable and efficient operation. This process resulted in an engine design with a unique high thrust-per-element OFO triplet injector utilizing a low cost modular approach. Cost efficient ablative materials are baselined for the injector face and chamber. Technology demonstration will be accomplished through a hot fire test program using appropriately sized subscale hardware. This subscale testing will provide a data base to supplement the current industry data bank and to anchor and validate the applied analysis models and design methodology. Once anchored and validated, these analysis models and design methodology can be applied with greatly increased confidence to design and characterize a large scale pressure fed LOX/RP-1 thrust chamber. The objective of this test program is to generate a data base that can be used to anchor and validate existing analysis models and design methodologies and to provide early concept demonstration of a low cost, efficient LOX/RP-1 thrust chamber. Test conditions and hardware instrumentation were defined to provide data sufficient to characterize combustion stability, performance, and thermal operation over a wide thrust chamber throttling range.
In this paper we describe a micro/nano satellite spacecraft and a supporting mission profile and architecture designed to enable preliminary in-situ characterization of a significant number of Near Earth Objects (NEOs) at reasonable cost. The spacecraft will be referred to as the NEO Scout. NEO Scout spacecraft are to be placed in GTO, GEO, or cis-lunar space as secondary payloads on launch vehicles headed for GTO or beyond and will begin their mission after deployment from the launcher. A distinguishing key feature of the NEO scout system is to design the mission timeline and spacecraft to rendezvous with and land on the target NEOs during close approach to the Earth-Moon system using low-thrust/high- impulse propulsion systems. Mission feasibility and preliminary design analysis are presented along with detailed trajectory calculations. The use of micro/nano satellites in low-cost interplanetary exploration is attracting increasing attention and is the subject of several annual workshops and published design studies (1-4). The NEO population consists of those asteroids and short period comets orbiting the Sun with a perihelion of 1.3 astronomical units or less (5-8). As of July 30, 2013 10065 Near-Earth objects have been discovered. The spin rate, mass, density, surface physical (especially mechanical) properties, composition, and mineralogy of the vast majority of these objects are highly uncertain and the limited available telescopic remote sensing data imply a very diverse population (5-8). In-situ measurements by robotic spacecraft are urgently needed to provide the characterization data needed to support hardware and mission design for more ambitious human and robotic NEO operations. Large numbers of NEOs move into close proximity with the Earth-Moon system every year (9). The JPL Near-Earth Object Human Space Flight Accessible Targets Study (NHATS) (10) has produced detailed mission profile and delta V requirements for various NEO missions ranging from 30 to 420 days in duration and assuming chemical propulsion. Similar studies have been reported assuming high power electric propulsion for manned NEO rendezvous missions (11). The delta V requirement breakdown and mission profile data from references 10 and 11 are used as a basis for sizing the NEO Scout spacecraft and for conducting preliminary feasibility assessments using the Tsiokolvsky rocket equation, a (worst-case) delta V requirement of 10 km/sec, and a maximum spacecraft dry mass of 20 kg. Using chemical propellant for a 10 km/sec delta V drives spacecraft wet mass well above 300 kg so that chemical propulsion is a non-starter for the proposed mission profile and spacecraft wet mass limits. In contrast, a solar electric propulsion system needs only 8 kg of Xe propellant to accelerate the spacecraft to 10 km/sec in 163 days with 0.02 N of thrust and 500 W of power from1.6 sq m of 29% efficient solar panels. In a second example, accelerating a 4 kg payload to 7 km/sec over 180 days requires about 6.7 kg of propellant and 1.2 kg of solar panels (12 kg total spacecraft wet mass).
Current small power system technology as applied to power plants up to 10 MWe in size was assessed. Markets for small power systems were characterized and cost goals were established. Candidate power plant system design concepts were selected for evaluation and preliminary performance and cost assessments were made. Economic studies were conducted and breakeven capital costs were determined for leading contenders among the candidate systems. An application study was made of the potential use of small power systems in providing part of the demand for pumping power by the extensive aqueduct system of California, estimated to be 1000 MWe by 1985. Criteria and methodologies were developed for application to the ranking of candidate power plant system design concepts. Experimental power plants concepts of 1 MWe rating were studied leading toward the definition of a power plant configuration for subsequent detail design, construction, testing and evaluation as Engineering Experiment No. 1 (EE No. 1). Site selection criteria and ground rules for the solicitation of EE No. 1 site participation proposals by DOE were developed.
Small power system technology as applied to power plants up to 10 MW in size was considered. Markets for small power systems were characterized and cost goals were established for the project. Candidate power plant system design concepts were selected for evaluation and preliminary performance and cost assessments were made. Breakeven capital costs were determined for leading contenders among the candidate systems. The potential use of small power systems in providing part of the demand for pumping power by the extensive aqueduct system of California, was studied. Criteria and methodologies were developed for the ranking of candidate power plant system design concepts. Experimental power plant concepts of 1 MW rating were studied to define a power plant configuration for subsequent detail design construction, testing and evaluation. Site selection criteria and ground rules were developed.
Add radar capability to the existing southern hemisphere 70-m Deep Space Network (DSN) site at Canberra, Australia, thereby increasing by 1.5-2x the observing time available for high-precision NEO trajectory refinement and characterization. Estimated cost: approx.$16 million over 3 years, $2.5 million/year for operations (FY09).
This paper describes a microsatellite spacecraft with supporting mission profile and architecture, designed to enable preliminary in-situ characterization of a significant number of Near Earth Objects (NEOs) at reasonably low cost. The spacecraft will be referred to as the NEO-Scout. NEO-Scout spacecraft are to be placed in Geosynchronous Equatorial Orbit (GEO), cis-lunar space, or on earth escape trajectories as secondary payloads on launch vehicles headed for GEO or beyond, and will begin their mission after deployment from the launcher. A distinguishing key feature of the NEO-Scout system is to design the spacecraft and mission timeline so as to enable rendezvous with and landing on the target NEO during NEO close approach (<0.3 AU) to the Earth-Moon system using low-thrust/high-impulse propulsion systems. Mission durations are on the order 100 to 400 days. Mission feasibility and preliminary design analysis are presented, along with detailed trajectory calculations.
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Current and future energy demands, end uses, and cost used to characterize typical applications services in the industrial sector of the United States are examined. A review and evaluation of existing industrial energy data bases was undertaken to assess their potential for supporting SERI research market suitability analysis; (2) market development; (3) end use matching; (4) industrial application studies; and (5) identification of cost and performance goals for solar systems and typical information requirements for industrial energy end use. The focus was on fuels and electric energy used for heat and power purchased by the manufacturing subsector and listed by 2, 3, and 4 digit SIC, primary fuel. The effects of federal and state industrial energy conservation programs on future industrial sector demands were assessed.