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NASA NTRS1987

Urey Prize Lecture - Chaotic dynamics in the solar system

Attention is given to solar system cases in which chaotic solutions of Newton's equations are important, as in chaotic rotation and orbital evolution. Hyperion is noted to be tumbling chaotically; chaotic orbital evolution is suggested to be of fundamental importance to an accounting for the Kirkwood gaps in asteroid distribution and for the phase space boundary of the chaotic zone at the 3/1 mean-motion commensurability with Jupiter. In addition, chaotic trajectories in the 2/1 chaotic zone reach very high eccentricities by a route that carries them to high inclinations temporarily.

Wisdom, Jack↗

NASA NTRS1990

Studies in astronomical time series analysis. IV - Modeling chaotic and random processes with linear filters

While chaos arises only in nonlinear systems, standard linear time series models are nevertheless useful for analyzing data from chaotic processes. This paper introduces such a model, the chaotic moving average. This time-domain model is based on the theorem that any chaotic process can be represented as the convolution of a linear filter with an uncorrelated process called the chaotic innovation. A technique, minimum phase-volume deconvolution, is introduced to estimate the filter and innovation. The algorithm measures the quality of a model using the volume covered by the phase-portrait of the innovation process. Experiments on synthetic data demonstrate that the algorithm accurately recovers the parameters of simple chaotic processes. Though tailored for chaos, the algorithm can detect both chaos and randomness, distinguish them from each other, and separate them if both are present. It can also recover nonminimum-delay pulse shapes in non-Gaussian processes, both random and chaotic.

Scargle, Jeffrey D.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Evidence of chaotic pattern in solar flux through a reproducible sequence of period-doubling-type bifurcations

Presented here is a preliminary study of the limits to solar flux intensity prediction, and of whether the general lack of predictability in the solar flux arises from the nonlinear chaotic nature of the Sun's physical activity. Statistical analysis of a chaotic signal can extract only its most gross features, and detailed physical models fail, since even the simplest equations of motion for a nonlinear system can exhibit chaotic behavior. A recent theory by Feigenbaum suggests that nonlinear systems that can be led into chaotic behavior through a sequence of period-doubling bifurcations will exhibit a universal behavior. As the control parameter is increased, the bifurcation points occur in such a way that a proper ratio of these will approach the universal Feigenbaum number. Experimental evidence supporting the applicability of the Feigenbaum scenario to solar flux data is sparse. However, given the hypothesis that the Sun's convection zones are similar to a Rayleigh-Bernard mechanism, we can learn a great deal from the remarkable agreement observed between the prediction by theory (period doubling - a universal route to chaos) and the amplitude decrease of the signal's regular subharmonics. The authors show that period-doubling-type bifurcation is a possible route to a chaotic pattern of solar flux that is distinguishable from the logarithm of its power spectral density. This conclusion is the first positive step toward a reformulation of solar flux by a nonlinear chaotic approach. The ultimate goal of this research is to be able to predict an estimate of the upper and lower bounds for solar flux within its predictable zones. Naturally, it is an important task to identify the time horizons beyond which predictability becomes incompatible with computability.

Ashrafi, S.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Evidence of chaotic pattern in solar flux through a reproducible sequence of period-doubling-type bifurcations

A preliminary study of the limits to solar flux intensity prediction, and of whether the general lack of predictability in the solar flux arises from the nonlinear chaotic nature of the Sun's physical activity is presented. Statistical analysis of a chaotic signal can extract only its most gross features, and detailed physical models fail, since even the simplest equations of motion for a nonlinear system can exhibit chaotic behavior. A recent theory by Feigenbaum suggests that nonlinear systems that can be led into chaotic behavior through a sequence of period-doubling bifurcations will exhibit a universal behavior. As the control parameter is increased, the bifurcation points occur in such a way that a proper ratio of these will approach the universal Feigenbaum number. Experimental evidence supporting the applicability of the Feigenbaum scenario to solar flux data is sparse. However, given the hypothesis that the Sun's convection zones are similar to a Rayleigh-Bernard mechanism, we can learn a great deal from the remarkable agreement observed between the prediction by theory (period doubling - a universal route to chaos) and the amplitude decrease of the signal's regular subharmonics. It is shown that period-doubling-type bifurcation is a possible route to a chaotic pattern of solar flux that is distinguishable from the logarithm of its power spectral density. This conclusion is the first positive step toward a reformulation of solar flux by a nonlinear chaotic approach. The ultimate goal of this research is to be able to predict an estimate of the upper and lower bounds for solar flux within its predictable zones. Naturally, it is an important task to identify the time horizons beyond which predictability becomes incompatible with computability.

Ashrafi, S.↗

NASA NTRS1984

The chaotic rotation of Hyperion

Under the assumption that the satellite is rotating about a principal axis that is normal to its orbit plane, a plot of spin rate-versus-orientation for Hyperion at the pericenter of its orbit has revealed a large, chaotic zone surrounding Hyperion's synchronous spin-orbit state. The chaotic zone is so large that it surrounds the 1/2 and 2 states, and libration in the 3/2 state is not possible. Rotation in the chaotic zone is also attitude-unstable. As tidal dissipation drives Hyperion's spin toward a nearly synchronous value, Hyperion necessarily enters the large chaotic zone, becoming attitude-unstable and tumbling. It is therefore predicted that Hyperion will be found to be tumbling chaotically.

Wisdom, J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Topological analysis of chaotic orbits: Revisiting Hyperion

There is emerging interest in the possibility of chaotic evolution in astrophysical systems. To mention just one example, recent well-sampled ground-based observations of the Saturian satellite Hyperion strongly suggest that it is exhibiting chaotic behavior. We present a general technique, the method of close returns, for the analysis of data from astronomical objects believed to be exhibiting chaotic motion. The method is based on the extraction of pieces of the evolution that exhibit nearly periodic behavior-episodes during which the object stays near in phase space to some unstable periodic orbit. Such orbits generally act as skeletal features, tracing the topological organization of the manifold on which the chaotic dynamics takes place. This method does not require data sets as lengthy as other nonlinear analysis techniques do and is therefore well suited to many astronomical observing programs. Well sampled data covering between twenty and forty characteristic periods of the system have been found to be sufficient for the application of this technique. Additional strengths of this method are its robustness in the presence of noise and the ability for a user to clearly distinguish between periodic, random, and chaotic behavior by inspection of the resulting two-dimensional image. As an example of its power, we analyze close returns in a numerically generated data set, based on a model for Hyperion extensively studied in the literature, corresponding to nightly observations of the satellite. We show that with a small data set, embedded unstable periodic orbits can be extracted and that these orbits can be responsible for nearly periodic behavior lasting a substantial fraction of the observing run.

Boyd, Patricia T.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Least Squares Shadowing Sensitivity Analysis of Chaotic Flow Around a Two-Dimensional Airfoil

Gradient-based sensitivity analysis has proven to be an enabling technology for many applications, including design of aerospace vehicles. However, conventional sensitivity analysis methods break down when applied to long-time averages of chaotic systems. This breakdown is a serious limitation because many aerospace applications involve physical phenomena that exhibit chaotic dynamics, most notably high-resolution large-eddy and direct numerical simulations of turbulent aerodynamic flows. A recently proposed methodology, Least Squares Shadowing (LSS), avoids this breakdown and advances the state of the art in sensitivity analysis for chaotic flows. The first application of LSS to a chaotic flow simulated with a large-scale computational fluid dynamics solver is presented. The LSS sensitivity computed for this chaotic flow is verified and shown to be accurate, but the computational cost of the current LSS implementation is high.

Blonigan, Patrick J.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Securing and Auto-Synchronizing Communication over Free-Space Optics Using Quantum Key Distribution and Chaotic Systems

Free-Space Optical (FSO) communication provides very large bandwidth, relatively low cost, low power, low mass of implementation, and improved security when compared to conventional Free-Space Radio-Frequency (FSRF) systems. In this paper, we demonstrate a communication protocol that demonstrates improved security and longer-range FSO communication, compared to existing FSO security techniques, such as N-slit interferometers. The protocol integrates chaotic communications with Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) techniques. A Lorenz chaotic system, which is inherently secure and auto-synchronized, is utilized for secure data communications over a classical channel, while QKD is used to exchange crucial chaotic system parameters over a secure quantum channel. We also provide a concept of operations for a NASA mission combining chaotic communications and QKD operating synergistically in an end-to-end space communications link. The experimental simulation results and analysis are favorable towards our approach.

Chaotic Communication↗

NASA NTRS1991

Future missions studies: Combining Schatten's solar activity prediction model with a chaotic prediction model

K. Schatten (1991) recently developed a method for combining his prediction model with our chaotic model. The philosophy behind this combined model and his method of combination is explained. Because the Schatten solar prediction model (KS) uses a dynamo to mimic solar dynamics, accurate prediction is limited to long-term solar behavior (10 to 20 years). The Chaotic prediction model (SA) uses the recently developed techniques of nonlinear dynamics to predict solar activity. It can be used to predict activity only up to the horizon. In theory, the chaotic prediction should be several orders of magnitude better than statistical predictions up to that horizon; beyond the horizon, chaotic predictions would theoretically be just as good as statistical predictions. Therefore, chaos theory puts a fundamental limit on predictability.

Ashrafi, S.↗

NASA NTRS1993

The chaotic obliquity of Mars

The discovery (by Laskar, 1989, 1990) that the evolution of the solar system is chaotic, made in a numerical integration of the averaged secular approximation of the equations of motions for the planets, was confirmed by Sussman and Wisdom (1992) by direct numerical integration of the whole solar system. This paper presents results of direct integrations of the rotation of Mars in the chaotically evolved planetary system, made using the same model as that used by Sussman and Wisdom. The numerical integration shows that the obliquity of Mars undergoes large chaotic variations, which occur as the system evolves in the chaotic zone associated with a secular spin-orbit resonance.

Touma, Jihad↗

NASA NTRS1981

Chaotic behavior and fluid dynamics

It is shown that while fluids are very complicated systems having many degrees of freedom, the basic mechanism underlying the observed chaotic behavior of fluid turbulence may not require the consideration of many degrees of freedom. Simple dynamical systems display erratic and chaotic behavior reminiscent of turbulence, the key to which is the 'sensitivity to initial conditions' introduced by Ruelle (1978). Simple models which are sensitive to initial data and have permitted workers to study chaotic behavior are described, with attention to the Lorenz equations, Landau's idea of a continuous transition to turbulence via an infinite cascade of bifurcations, and one-dimensional maps.

Yorke, J. A.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Chaotic /strange/ and periodic behavior in instability saturation by the oscillating two-stream instability

The nonlinear Schroedinger equation with linear growth and damping is truncated to three waves. The resulting system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations describes the excitation of linearly damped waves by the oscillating two-stream instability driven by a linearly unstable pump wave. This system represents a simple model for the nonlinear saturation of a linearly unstable wave. The model is examined analytically and numerically as a function of the dimensionless parameters of the system. It is found that the model can exhibit a wealth of characteristic dynamical behavior including stationary equilibria, Hopf bifurcations to periodic orbits, period doubling bifurcations, chaotic solutions characteristic of a strange attractor, tangent bifurcations from chaotic to periodic solutions, transient chaos, and hysteresis. Many of these features are shown to be explainable on the basis of one-dimensional maps. In the case of chaotic solutions, evidence for the presence of a strange attractor is provided by demonstrating Cantor set-like structure (i.e., scale invariance) in the surface of section.

Russell, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Optimal inference with chaotic dynamics

Nonlinear mappings that exhibit chaotic, seemingly random, evolution have appeal as models of dynamic systems. Their deterministic evolution, vis-a-vis Markov evolutions, results in much simpler optimal detection and estimation algorithms. The variation of a chaotic parameter (mu) results in diverse evolutions, suggesting a simple but rich source of model variations. For the specific mapping examined, this latter possibility is problematic due to the extreme sensitivity on mu of the evolution in the chaotic regime.

Harger, R. O.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Chaotic behavior and the origin of the 3/1 Kirkwood gap

The sudden eccentricity increases discovered by Wisdom (1982) are reproduced in numerical integrations of the planar ecliptic restricted three-body problem, verifying that this phenomenon is real. Mapping derivations are qualitatively reviewed and the maximum Liapunov characteristic exponent and its importance for determining the character of a trajectory are explained. The results of a number of calculations of this exponent using the differential equations for the unaveraged three-body problem are shown and compared to equivalent calculations using a mapping. In all cases the two approaches agree whether the orbits are chaotic or quasiperiodic. The mappings are used to trace out the chaotic zone near the 3/1 commensurability, both in the planar-ecliptic problem and in the three-dimensional elliptic problem. The outer boundary of the chaotic zone coincides with the boundary of the 3/1 Kirkwood gap in the actual distribution of asteroids within the errors of the asteroid orbital elements.

Wisdom, J.↗

NASA NTRS1990

An investigation of chaotic Kolmogorov flows

A two dimensional flow governed by the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations with a steady spatially periodic forcing (known as the Kolmogorov flow) is numerically simulated. The behavior of the flow and its transition states as the Reynolds number (Re) varies is investigated in detail, as well as a number of the flow features. A sequence of bifurcations is shown to take place in the flow as Re varied. Two main regimes of the flow were observed: small and large scale structure regimes corresponding to different ranges of Re. Each of the regimes includes a number of quasiperiodic, chaotic, and relaminarization windows. In addition, each range contains a chaotic window with non-ergodic chaotic attractors. Spatially disordered, but temporally steady states were discovered in large scale structure regime. Features of the diverse cases are displayed in terms of the temporal power spectrum, Poincare sections and, where possible, Lyapunov exponents and Kaplan-Yorke dimension.

Platt, N.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A chaotic attractor in timing noise from the Vela pulsar?

Fourteen years of timing residual data from the Vela pulsar have been analyzed in order to determine if a chaotic dynamical process is the origin of timing noise. Using the correlation sum technique, a dimension of about 1.5 is obtained. This low dimension indicates underlying structure in the phase residuals which may be evidence for a chaotic attractor. It is therefore possible that nonlinear dynamics intrinsic to the spin-down may be the cause of the timing noise in the Vela pulsar. However, it has been found that the stimulated random walks in frequency and frequency derivative often used to model pulsar timing noise also have low fractal dimension, using the same analysis technique. Recent work suggesting that random processes with steep power spectra can mimic strange attractors seems to be confirmed in the case of these random walks. It appears that the correlation sum estimator for dimension is unable to distinguish between chaotic and random processes.

Harding, Alice K.↗

NASA NTRS1991

An investigation of chaotic Kolmogorov flows

Platt, N.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Chaotic evolution of the solar system

The evolution of the entire planetary system has been numerically integrated for a time span of nearly 100 million years. This calculation confirms that the evolution of the solar system as a whole is chaotic, with a time scale of exponential divergence of about 4 million years. Additional numerical experiments indicate that the Jovian planet subsystem is chaotic, although some small variations in the model can yield quasi-periodic motion. The motion of Pluto is independently and robustly chaotic.

Sussman, Gerald J.↗