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Results for “chance constraint”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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9 records

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Analytic Neural Network Gaussian Process Enabled Chance-Constrained Voltage Regulation for Active Distribution Systems with PVs, Batteries and EVs

This paper proposes an analytic neural network Gaussian process (NNGP)-based chance-constrained real-time voltage regulation method for active distribution systems with photovoltaics (PVs), batteries, and electric vehicles (EVs). NNGP can utilize historical measurement data to achieve real-time probabilistic node voltage estimation through Bayesian inference. Then, NNGP is fully analytically embedded into the optimal power flow model to perform voltage regulation and adapt to various topological changes. The uncertainties of voltage estimations are easily considered via the chance constraint, and it has been shown that the adoption of this chance constraint can significantly improve the reliability of voltage regulation under various scenarios. The comparison results with other methods, carried out on a real 759-node distribution system located in western Colorado, U.S., show that the proposed method can achieve accurate voltage estimation across different topologies and reliably perform voltage regulation considering PVs, batteries, and EVs.

active distribution systems↗

DOE OSTI2026

Stochastic Microgrid Scheduling With Chance‐Constrained Resilience Consideration

Traditionally, it is assumed that microgrids transition seamlessly from grid‐connected operation to islanded mode in the event of sudden main grid outages. In reality, the islanding process, especially unintentional islanding, is rarely seamless. Instead, it is subject to voltage and frequency fluctuations caused by the instantaneous disconnection of the point of common coupling (PCC) switch, variations in loads and renewable generation output and even the protection tripping of distributed energy resources (DERs). To mitigate these fluctuations and facilitate a smooth islanding process, we propose a stochastic microgrid scheduling model that incorporates chance‐constrained resilience measures. Specifically, the resilience measure is defined as the probability of successful islanding (PSI), that is, the probability that a microgrid can mitigate the generation‐demand imbalance caused by the disconnection of the PCC switch, variations in load and renewable generation and DER tripping. This measure is modelled using chance constraints. Unlike existing reliability and resilience indices, which typically neglect the possibility of microgrid/DER failure under extreme events and assume their survival while primarily focussing on reducing impact duration or magnitude, the proposed PSI‐based framework explicitly addresses microgrid and DER survival during the islanding transition. The formulated nonlinear chance constraints are approximated using a multiinterval approach and equivalently represented as a mixed‐integer linear programming (MILP) formulation. Case study results validate the proposed method, showing that the PSI estimation error is reduced to less than 8%, compared to approximately 28% with existing methods. Various sensitivity analyses on the DER tripping rate and PSI settings were performed to validate the robustness of the proposed method. In particular, the necessity of accounting for DER tripping in the PSI calculation was demonstrated.

chance constrained optimization↗

DOE OSTI2025

Safe Reinforcement Learning-Based Transient Stability Control for Islanded Microgrids With Topology Reconfiguration

This paper proposes a safe reinforcement learning (RL)-based transient stability emergency control (TSEC) method for islanded microgrids. RL requires extensive interaction with the environment to learn control strategies, hence, a data-driven approach is used as a substitute for time-consuming time-domain simulation calculations. Deep sigma point processes (DSPP), which is a Gaussian process model, is utilized to predict the normal distribution of transient stability of microgrids and to construct a transient stability chance constraint. Reward-constrained policy optimization (RCPO) can simultaneously achieve objective prediction, policy learning, and constraint cost coefficient update across multiple timescales. RCPO interacts with the DSPP-based microgrid environment through a multi-process parallel manner, greatly increasing the training speed. Case studies on a real islanded microgrid demonstrate that the proposed method can efficiently and quickly obtain the optimal emergency control strategy while adhering to all hard constraints.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimization problems governed by systems of PDEs with uncertainties

This paper reviews current theoretical and numerical approaches to optimization problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs) that depend on random variables or random fields. Such problems arise in many engineering, science, economics and societal decision-making tasks. This paper focuses on problems in which the governing PDEs are parametrized by the random variables/fields, and the decisions are made at the beginning and are not revised once uncertainty is revealed. Examples of such problems are presented to motivate the topic of this paper, and to illustrate the impact of different ways to model uncertainty in the formulations of the optimization problem and their impact on the solution. A linear–quadratic elliptic optimal control problem is used to provide a detailed discussion of the set-up for the risk-neutral optimization problem formulation, study the existence and characterization of its solution, and survey numerical methods for computing it. Different ways to model uncertainty in the PDE-constrained optimization problem are surveyed in an abstract setting, including risk measures, distributionally robust optimization formulations, probabilistic functions and chance constraints, and stochastic orders. Furthermore, approximation-based optimization approaches and stochastic methods for the solution of the large-scale PDE-constrained optimization problems under uncertainty are described. Some possible future research directions are outlined.

Heinkenschloss, Matthias [Rice Univ., Houston, TX ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Tools for probing new physics with newly discovered gamma-ray targets

Here, we present a computational tool, TweedleDEE, for empirically modeling diffuse gamma-ray background emission in a 1° region of the sky, using publicly available gamma-ray data off-axis from the region of interest. This background model allows a user to perform a purely data-driven search for anomalous localized sources of gamma-ray emission, including new physics. A major application of this tool would be in searching for dark matter annihilation in newly discovered astrophysical targets. For this purpose, we derive a scaling relation for determining velocity-dependent 𝐽-factors using only the stellar parameters, which can be broadly applied to obtain dark matter constraints from new targets. As an application of these tools, we use TweedleDEE and MADHATv2 to perform the first search for dark matter annihilation in the newly discovered Leo VI dwarf spheroidal galaxy, and present model constraints for a variety of choices of the annihilation channel and velocity dependence of the cross section.

dark matter↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Gravity Collective: A Comprehensive Analysis of the Electromagnetic Search for the Binary Neutron Star Merger GW190425

We present an ultraviolet to infrared search for the electromagnetic (EM) counterpart to GW190425, the second ever binary neutron star merger discovered by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA Collaboration. GW190425 was more distant and had a larger localization area than GW170817, so we use a new tool, Teglon, to redistribute the GW190425 localization probability in the context of galaxy catalogs within the final localization volume. We derive a 90th percentile area of 6688 deg 2 , a ∼1.5× improvement relative to the LIGO/Virgo map, and show how Teglon provides an order-of-magnitude boost to the search efficiency of small (≤1 deg 2 ) field-of-view instruments. We combine our data with a large, publicly reported imaging data set, covering 9078.59 deg 2 of unique area and 48.13% of the LIGO/Virgo-assigned localization probability, to calculate the most comprehensive kilonova (KN), short gamma-ray burst (sGRB) afterglow, and model-independent constraints on the EM emission from a hypothetical counterpart to GW190425 to date under the assumption that no counterpart was found in these data. If the counterpart were similar to AT 2017gfo, there would be a 28.4% chance of it being detected in the combined data set. We are relatively insensitive to an on-axis sGRB, and rule out a generic transient with a similar peak luminosity and decline rate as AT 2017gfo to 30% confidence. Finally, across our new imaging and publicly reported data, we find 28 candidate optical counterparts that we cannot rule out as being associated with GW190425, finding that four such counterparts discovered within the localization volume and within 5 days of merger exhibit luminosities consistent with a KN.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Optimal celestial bodies for dark matter detection

A wide variety of celestial bodies have been considered as dark matter detectors. Which stands the best chance of delivering the discovery of dark matter? Which is the most powerful dark matter detector? We investigate a range of objects, including the Sun, Earth, Jupiter, Brown Dwarfs, White Dwarfs, Neutron Stars, Stellar populations, and Exoplanets. We quantify how different objects are optimal dark matter detectors in different regimes by deconstructing some of the in-built assumptions in these search sensitivities, including observation potential and particle model assumptions. We find new constraints and future sensitivities across a range of dark matter annihilation final states. We quantify mediator properties leading to detectable celestial-body energy injection or Standard Model fluxes, and show how different objects can be expected to deliver corroborating signals. We discuss different search strategies, their opportunities and limitations, and the interplay of regimes where different celestial objects are optimal dark matter detectors. Deconstructing the assumptions of these searches leads us to point out a new search using the Galactic center stellar population that can provide greater sensitivity to the dark matter-nucleon scattering cross section than the Sun, despite being significantly further away in our Galaxy.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Learned adaptive properties for mitigation of weight perturbations in embedded spiking networks

Recent years have seen an increased importance of neural network inference in edge-based scenarios, which impose size and power constraints requiring novel computing devices. These same edge scenarios may require operating over long periods of time, or exposure to extreme environments, resulting in a drift of neural network weights that cause degraded performance. In searching for ways to develop neural network approaches that perform robustly under these conditions, we propose a biologically-inspired mechanism for the dynamic adaptation of within-neuron parameters that is guided by a global context signal carrying information about perturbations and variability in incoming stimuli. Specifically, we demonstrate that adaptive voltage thresholds or neuronal time constants, when informed by a global context signal, can enable network-level mechanisms to recover from perturbed synaptic weights. Consistent with prior literature, the context-modulated approach is effective for recurrent, but not feedforward networks, by modulating network level dynamics. We demonstrate this approach successfully recovers performance in image classification tasks and spatiotemporal tracking tasks under idealized and Gaussian noise as well as for realistic perturbations from a memristive device when exposed to ionizing radiation. Finally, we discuss how this approach enables the design of robust and energy-efficient neuromorphic systems that perform well, even in resource-constrained scenarios with extreme environments such as edge processing.

context modulation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning on Heterogeneous, Edge, and Quantum Hardware for Particle Physics (ML-HEQUPP)

The next generation of particle physics experiments will face a new era of challenges in data acquisition, due to unprecedented data rates and volumes along with extreme environments and operational constraints. Harnessing this data for scientific discovery demands real-time inference and decision-making, intelligent data reduction, and efficient processing architectures beyond current capabilities. Crucial to the success of this experimental paradigm are several emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) and silicon microelectronics, and the advent of quantum algorithms and processing. Their intersection includes areas of research such as low-power and low-latency devices for edge computing, heterogeneous accelerator systems, reconfigurable hardware, novel codesign and synthesis strategies, readout for cryogenic or high-radiation environments, and analog computing. This white paper presents a community-driven vision to identify and prioritize research and development opportunities in hardware-based ML systems and corresponding physics applications, contributing towards a successful transition to the new data frontier of fundamental science.

Gonski, Julia [SLAC]↗