Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “cascading outage”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Analysis and Mitigation of Cascading Outages Using an Interaction Graph Addressing Transient Stability

Cascading outages of power systems pose great threats to system security and reliability, potentially leading to large-scale blackouts. For analysis and mitigation of cascading outages, this paper proposes a transient stability-incorporated interaction graph. This graph statistically quantifies the interactions among line outages and instabilities of generators, which can model propagation paths and patterns of cascading outages. Compared with an interaction graph that only models line outages, this new interaction graph provides important insights on how transient instability occurs along with cascading outages. It also offers more effective strategies for mitigating outage propagation. The proposed interaction graph can be constructed from datasets of historical or simulated cascading events. It is demonstrated on an NPCC 140-bus system with mitigation strategies.

Guo, Zhenping↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparing Interaction Graphs on Cascading Outages under Different Loading Conditions

Interaction graphs on cascading outages of power systems provide valuable insights into how cascading outages evolve and propagate, and which components and links are critical to the propagation of cascading outages, enabling further development of mitigation strategies to support decision-making. However, the sensitivity of the interaction graph’s topology to the system’s loading condition has not been studied sufficiently. This paper compared interaction graphs under various loading conditions on the Northeastern Power Coordinating Council 140-bus system, and discovers the strong relationships between the graph topology, the cascade size distribution, and the load condition. Accordingly, three representative interaction graphs are constructed and illustrated.

Guo, Zhenping↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Hybrid Dynamic/Steady-State Tool With Protection Simulation for Cascading-Outage Analysis of Extreme Events in Power Systems

The bulk electric power grid is subject to vulnerabilities from component outages, which in certain combinations (extreme events) might lead to cascading outages. Some of these outages can be severe enough to trigger brownouts and blackouts. Much is known about mitigating the first few failures near the beginning of a cascade, but there are few established methods and tools for directly analyzing the risks of cascading component outages over a longer time scale. Current power system tools have limited ability to perform detailed and accurate cascading-outage analysis, which could be computationally intensive. The Dynamic Contingency Analysis Tool (DCAT) enables power system planning engineers to more realistically assess the consequences of extreme contingencies and potential cascading events across their systems and interconnections. DCAT has several unique features: (i) detailed hybrid dynamic and steady-state analysis of power systems to mimic real-world cascading outages, (ii) detailed modeling of protection systems embedded in the dynamic simulation, (iii) simulation of corrective action after transients, (iv) simulation of islanding , and (v) high-performance computing capability to simulate a large number of contingencies in a reasonable time. DCAT outputs will help find technically sound solutions to reduce the risk of cascading outages. This paper provides details of DCAT methodology and shows its capabilities with extreme events on real-world cases.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mitigating Cascading Outages in Severe Weather Using Simulation-Based Optimization

Severe weather events can trigger cascading power outages and lead to significant losses. In this work, we investigate cascading outage mitigation under severe weather conditions. Given day-ahead weather forecasts and component failure models, we aim to identify a set of power lines that can be hardened to minimize the expected impact of potential cascading outages. Since the expected load shedding cannot be expressed as an explicit function of line hardening decisions and system states, we developed a cascading outage simulator to estimate the expected value of load shedding under various initial weather-related disruption scenarios generated using a weather forecast. To avoid massive enumeration of all possible combinations of line hardening decisions and reduce the simulation efforts, we employed an efficient simulation-based optimization approach that quickly identifies the (near) optimal line hardening decisions in the presence of both large simulation noises due to the highly variable initial disturbances and system states, and significant randomness in the subsequent cascades. Furthermore, the algorithm is also able to utilize parallel computing to dramatically reduce computation time to support decision making in preparation for severe weather conditions. We performed a case study on the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) 140-bus system model to demonstrate that our approach can significantly improve power grid resilience to adverse weather events.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Efficient Simulation of Cascading Outages Using an Energy Function-Embedded Quasi-Steady-State Model

Here, this paper proposed an energy function-embedded quasi-steady-state model for efficient simulation of cascading outages on a power grid while addressing transient stability concerns. Compared to quasi-steady-state models, the proposed model incorporates short-term dynamic simulation and an energy function method to efficiently evaluate the transient stability of a power grid together with outage propagation without transient stability simulation. Cascading outage simulation using the proposed model conducts three steps for each disturbance such as a line outage. First, it performs time-domain simulation for a short term to obtain a post-disturbance trajectory. Second, along the trajectory, the system state with the local maximum potential energy is found and used as the initial point to search for a relevant unstable equilibrium by Newton's method. Third, the transient energy margin is estimated based on this unstable equilibrium to predict an out-of-step condition with generators. The proposed energy function-embedded quasi-steady-state model is tested in terms of its accuracy and time performance on an NPCC 140-bus power system and compared to a quasi-steady-state model embedding transient stability simulation.

Guo, Zhenping [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Online Search Method for Representative Risky Fault Chains Based on Reinforcement Learning and Knowledge Transfer

In the analysis of cascading outages and blackouts in power systems, risky cascading fault chains should be accurately identified in order to do further block or alleviate blackouts. However, the huge computational burden makes online analysis difficult. In this paper, an online search method for representative risky fault chains based on reinforcement learning and knowledge transfer is proposed. This method aims at promoting efficiency by exploiting similarities of adjacent power flow snapshots in operations. After the “representative risky fault chain” is defined, a framework of tree search based on Markov Decision Process and Q-learning is constructed. The knowledge in past runs is accumulated offline and then applied online, with a mechanism of knowledge transition and extension. The proposed learning based approach is verified on an illustrative 39-bus system with different loading levels, and simulations are carried out on a realworld 1000-bus power grid in China to show the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed approach.

Blackout↗
DOE OSTI2026

Wildfire-Power Grid Interactions: Feedback, Impacts, Monitoring, Modeling, and Mitigation Strategies

Wildfires are increasingly interacting with electric power systems through a two-way hazard chain: fires damage grid assets and trigger cascading outages, while grid faults can ignite new fires under hot, dry, and windy conditions. This review synthesizes the state of knowledge across five domains: (i) physical impacts of flames, heat, and smoke on lines, towers, insulators, and substations; (ii) power-infrastructure-initiated ignitions via conductor clash, high-impedance faults, and corona discharge; (iii) widespread blackouts and disproportionate societal impacts; (iv) multi-scale monitoring spanning laboratory tests, in-situ and grid-integrated sensors, and Earth observation; (v) coupled modeling that links fire behavior with grid operations; and (vi) technological and strategic mitigation pathways spanning prevention, response, and recovery. We integrate these domains into a novel 'feedback-aware' socio-technical framework. Through a longitudinal analysis (2005-2025) of global incidents, we identify that while vegetation contact remains the most frequent ignition source, aging infrastructure failure has emerged as a critical driver of catastrophic 'mega-fires'. We further identify persistent gaps, including limited interoperability of high-frequency grid and environmental data, scarce real-time data assimilation, and under-developed equity metrics for outage management. We conclude by outlining a research agenda to (1) deploy interoperable sensing architectures, (2) advance feedback-coupled fire-grid simulations, and (3) evaluate mitigation portfolios through techno-economic and fairness lenses. Recognizing wildfire-grid interactions as coupled socio-technical systems is essential for protecting infrastructure and communities and for ensuring reliable, sustainable electricity in a changing world.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Transductive Graph Neural Network learning for Grid Resilience Analysis

Power grids are critical infrastructures that require robust resilience analysis to ensure reliable and uninterrupted electricity supply. Traditional simulation-based methods for grid resilience analysis suffer from computational complexity and limited ability to capture the full spectrum of potential disruptions. This paper presents a novel approach to enhance grid resilience by leveraging transductive graph neural network (GNN) learning to identify critical nodes and links. By leveraging the graph structure and system features, GNNs effectively learn resilience metrics and accurately identify critical nodes based on actual grid operational behavior. The efficacy of the proposed approach is demonstrated through case studies on node criticality scoring and critical node/line identification in cascading outage scenarios. The results highlight the advantages of learning-based methods over traditional simulation-based approaches and their potential to revolutionize grid resilience analysis. The contributions of this paper include a graph-based scalable approach for fast cascading analysis, an inductive formulation for training GNN models, and a transfer learning-based approach to scale the model to largescale power systems.

grid resilience, graph neural networks, transducti↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Framework for Bulk Electric Grid Impacts from HEMP E1 and E3 Effects (Tasks 3.1 Final Report)

This report presents a framework to evaluate the impact of a high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event on a bulk electric power grid. This report limits itself to modeling the impact of EMP E1 and E3 components. The co-simulation of E1 and E3 is presented in detail, and the focus of the paper is on the framework rather than actual results. This approach is highly conservative as E1 and E3 are not maximized with the same event characteristics and may only slightly overlap. The actual results shown in this report are based on a synthetic grid with synthetic data and a limited exemplary EMP model. The framework presented can be leveraged and used to analyze the impact of other threat scenarios, both manmade and natural disasters. This report d escribes a Monte-Carlo based methodology to probabilistically quantify the transient response of the power grid to a HEMP event. The approach uses multiple fundamental steps to characterize the system response to HEMP events, focused on the E1 and E3 components of the event. 1) Obtain component failure data related to HEMP events testing of components and creating component failure models. Use the component failure model to create component failure conditional probability density function (PDF) that is a function of the HEMP induced terminal voltage. 2) Model HEMP scenarios and calculate the E1 coupled voltage profiles seen by all system components. Model the same HEMP scenarios and calculate the transformer reactive power consumption profiles due to E3. 3) Sample each component failure PDF to determine which grid components will fail, due to the E1 voltage spike, for each scenario. 4) Perform dynamic simulations that incorporate the predicted component failures from E1 and reactive power consumption at each transformer affected by E3. These simulations allow for secondary transients to affect the relays/protection remaining in service which can lead to cascading outages. 5) Identify the locations and amount of load lost for each scenario through grid dynamic simulation. This can be an indication of the immediate grid impacts from a HEMP event. In addition, perform more detailed analysis to determine critical nodes and system trends. 6) To help realize the longer-term impacts, a security constrained alternating current optimal power flow (ACOPF) is run to maximize critical load served. This report describes a modeling framework to assess the systemic grid impacts due to a HEMP event. This stochastic simulation framework generates a large amount of data for each Monte Carlo replication, including HEMP location and characteristics, relay and component failures, E3 GIC profiles, cascading dynamics including voltage and frequency over time, and final system state. This data can then be analyzed to identify trends, e.g., unique system behavior modes or critical components whose failure is more likely to cause serious systemic effects. The proposed analysis process is demonstrated on a representative system. In order to draw realistic conclusions of the impact of a HEMP event on the grid, a significant amount of work remains with respect to modeling the impact on various grid components.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Applications in Modern Power Systems

Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms offer valuable tools for the analysis and interpretation of large datasets. These tools have the capability to uncover insights that may not be readily apparent within these datasets. In recent years, the integration of ML and AI has become increasingly prevalent in various applications within the power system domain. One of the earliest instances of machine learning in power systems can be traced back to demand forecasting, where artificial neural networks were employed for short-term load forecasting. In contemporary power systems, an abundance of high-resolution geospatial and temporal data is generated at various time intervals, ranging from sub-seconds (Phasor Measurement Units or PMUs) to seconds (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition or SCADA), minutes (Process Information or PI), and extending to days, months, and years. These datasets contain valuable information concerning system reliability and performance. This information holds the potential to offer critical insights into system operations, as well as solutions for predicting and mitigating contingencies to prevent cascading outages. Despite the immense power of machine learning tools, system operators, planners, and utilities often exhibit hesitancy in fully embracing AI-enabled system operations and planning. This cautious approach persists, even as numerous diverse applications of machine learning continue to emerge in the realm of power systems. In this chapter, our focus will delve deep into ML and AI applications tailored for power systems. These applications aim to furnish system operators with enhanced situational awareness and augment their decision-making capabilities, especially during challenging operating conditions. Specific areas of interest encompass root cause analyses of electricity market datasets and the strategic selection of representative samples from vast power system databases for training ML/AI models. Finally, the chapter will conclude with a short discussion on the future of ML/AI in power systems and possible directions that the industry is moving towards.

power system applications, machine learning (ML), ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Power grid frequency prediction using spatiotemporal modeling

Understanding power system dynamics is essential for interarea oscillation analysis and the detection of grid instabilities. The FNET/GridEye is a GPS-synchronized wide-area frequency measurement network that provides an accurate picture of the normal real-time operational condition of the power system-dynamics, giving rise to new and intricate spatiotemporal patterns of power loads. We propose to model FNET/GridEye grid frequency data from the U.S. Eastern Interconnection with a spatiotemporal statistical model. We predict the frequency data at locations without observations, a critical need during disruption events where measurement data are inaccessible. Spatial information is accounted for either as neighboring measurements in the form of covariates or with a spatiotemporal correlation model captured by a latent Gaussian field. Finally, the proposed method is useful in estimating power system dynamic response from limited phasor measurements and holds promise for predicting instability that may lead to undesirable effects such as cascading outages.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multi-Agent Graph-Attention Deep Reinforcement Learning for Post-Contingency Grid Emergency Voltage Control

Grid emergency voltage control (GEVC) is paramount in electric power systems to improve voltage stability and prevent cascading outages and blackouts in case of contingencies. While most deep reinforcement learning (DRL)-based paradigms perform single agents in a static environment, real-world agents for GEVC are expected to cooperate in a dynamically shifting grid. Moreover, due to high uncertainties from combinatory natures of various contingencies and load consumption, along with the complexity of dynamic grid operation, the data efficiency and control performance of the existing DRL-based methods are challenged. To address these limitations, we propose a multi-agent graph-attention (GATT)-based DRL algorithm for GEVC in multi-area power systems. Here, we develop graph convolutional network (GCN)-based agents for feature representation of the graph-structured voltages to improve the decision accuracy in a data-efficient manner. Furthermore, a cutting-edge attention mechanism concentrates on effective information sharing among multiple agents, synergizing different-sized subnetworks in the grid for cooperative learning. We address several key challenges in the existing DRL-based GEVC approaches, including low scalability and poor stability against high uncertainties. Test results in the IEEE benchmark system verify the advantages of the proposed method over several recent multi-agent DRL-based algorithms.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Eastern Interconnection Wide-Area Oscillation Assessment and Study Report

To meet the government mandates such as Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), conventional synchronous generators with rotating mass are being displaced by inverter-based resources (IBRs), leading to high penetration of renewable energy sources (RES). As a result, the inherent properties and characteristics of the transformed generation mix may significantly impact the grid behaviour, and it is of paramount significance that the impact and the consequences of the resource mix change is thoroughly understood to adopt measures to maintain reliable grid operations. Of great concern is the inter-area low-frequency oscillation, which usually propagates through a large region and has a system-wide impact. Such oscillations may lead to unnecessary or inadvertent tripping of generators, that may be simply reacting to the oscillation originating from geographically remote sites. Such tripping of generators can lead to cascading outages, system split and load loss events. Over the years, several system-wide oscillation events have been observed across all three North American interconnections. This project titled Wide-area Oscillation Assessment and Trending Study, sponsored by the Office of Electricity (OE) of the Department of Energy (DOE), aims to conduct the required research to capture and investigate the potential changes in wide-area oscillatory performance of the system as a result of resource mix transition. The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) conducted this research and technical staff of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) served as advisors to the project. The primary objective of this study is to assess whether there are significant trends in the power system wide-area oscillatory behaviours, as a result of the generation-mix changes due to the increased penetration of RES in the U.S. Eastern Interconnection (EI). The analysis presented in this report can serve as reference for future grid planning and operation of the EI system. This research conducted in this project evaluates the wide-area oscillatory behaviour of the EI, using a model-based approach for potential future resource mixes, and the measurement-based analysis with 21-month phasor measurement unit (PMU) time series. The oscillation modes in EI system along with the impact of the changes of the generation mix on the frequency and damping ratio (DR) of the oscillations have been studied.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Generic Advanced Computing Framework for Executing Windows-based Dynamic Contingency Analysis Tool in Parallel on Cluster Machines

Dynamic contingency analysis tool (DCAT) has been developed to assess the impact and likelihood of extreme contingencies and potential cascading events across their systems and interconnections. By including more customized protection models and corrective actions into the Windows-based commercial tools, DCAT can help operators understand the cascading behavior and find mitigation approaches to reduce the risk of cascading outages in a more realistic manner. In order to further enhance the capability of DCAT, this paper presents a design of an advanced computing framework that enables DCAT to run on a cluster machine to improve its computational performance. This framework is generic and can be applied to other Windows-based simulation tools to fill the technical gap of applying advanced computing technology to vendors' Windows-based tools. The preliminary tests using medium to large power systems have shown the effectiveness of this framework and its potential for accelerating the adoption of advanced computing in utilities.

Advanced computing, dynamic contingency analysis, ↗
DOE OSTI2021

NERC MISOPS

This investigation was commissioned by the Office of Electricity of the Department of Energy in response to reviewing the NERC State of Reliability report. The study is an attempt to proactively address electric utility industry needs. “Monitoring, analyzing, and tracking trends in Protection System Misoperations are critical to improve BES reliability. Historically, Protection System Misoperations have exacerbated the severity of most cascading power outages.” The NERC misoperations data shows that unnecessary trips are by far the leading category of reported misoperations and that a majority of misoperations are those of line protection packages. A significant number of misoperations are tied to microprocessor relays. Approximately one quarter of reported misoperations are due to incorrect settings and another one quarter of misoperations are due to relay failures/malfunctions and communication failures.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2000

Simulating the Composite Propellant Manufacturing Process

There is a strategic interest in understanding how the propellant manufacturing process contributes to military capabilities outside the United States. The paper will discuss how system dynamics (SD) has been applied to rapidly assess the capabilities and vulnerabilities of a specific composite propellant production complex. These facilities produce a commonly used solid propellant with military applications. The authors will explain how an SD model can be configured to match a specific production facility followed by a series of scenarios designed to analyze operational vulnerabilities. By using the simulation model to rapidly analyze operational risks, the analyst gains a better understanding of production complexities. There are several benefits of developing SD models to simulate chemical production. SD is an effective tool for characterizing complex problems, especially the production process where the cascading effect of outages quickly taxes common understanding. By programming expert knowledge into an SD application, these tools are transformed into a knowledge management resource that facilitates rapid learning without requiring years of experience in production operations. It also permits the analyst to rapidly respond to crisis situations and other time-sensitive missions. Most importantly, the quantitative understanding gained from applying the SD model lends itself to strategic analysis and planning.

Williamson, Suzanne↗
DOE OSTI2023

Resilience Analytics for Interdependent Power and Water Distribution Systems

The occurrence of large-scale outages in power distribution systems (PDSs) caused, for instance, by extreme weather events has raised concerns on the cascading impact of the power outages on the resilience of other critical infrastructures, including water distribution systems (WDSs), whose healthy operation highly relies on the availability of power from PDSs. Here, this paper proposes an analytics model for quantifying the interdependence between the resilience of power and water distribution systems. The proposed model first performs spatio-temporal outage analysis on the PDS and WDS to determine the PDS power serving capability and the resulting cascading impact on the WDS water serving capability during the occurrence of disruptions. The resilience interdependence is then determined by a proposed set of six metrics calculated using the power and water serving capability profiles, which trace and quantify the cascading impacts of power outages in the operation of WDSs during the degradation and recovery stages. The proposed analytics model is implemented on the IEEE 33-bus power distribution system supplying power for pumping stations of a 15-node test WDS, considering multiple cases of water storage capacity, single and multiple outage scenarios, and availability of distributed generation. The numerical results demonstrate that the proposed metrics track the temporal and spatial interdependence between the resilience of power and water distribution systems, providing a mechanism to identify weak spots, and assess options to enhance the resilience of the critical water infrastructure.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗