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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Black carbon emissions and reduction potential in China: 2015–2050

Black carbon is a product of the incomplete combustion of carbonaceous fuels and has significant adverse effects on climate change, air quality, and human health. China has been a major contributor to global anthropogenic black carbon emissions. This study develops a black carbon inventory in China, using 2015 as the base year, and projects annual black carbon emissions in China for the period 2016–2050, under two scenarios: a Reference scenario and an Accelerated Reduction scenario. The study estimates that the total black carbon emissions in China in 2015 were 1100 thousand tons (kt), with residential use being the biggest contributor, accounting for more than half of the total black carbon emissions, followed by coke production, industry, agricultural waste burning, and transportation. This study then projects the total black carbon emissions in China in 2050 to be 278 kt in the Reference scenario and 86 kt in the Accelerated Reduction Scenario. Compared to the Reference scenario, the Accelerated Reduction scenario will achieve much faster and deeper black carbon reductions in all the sectors. The dramatic reductions can be attributed to the fuel switching in the residential sector, faster implementation of high-efficiency emission control measures in the industry, transportation, and coke production sectors, and faster phase-out of agricultural waste open burning. This analysis reveals the high potential of black carbon emission reductions across multiple sectors in China through the next thirty years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Widespread underestimation of rain-induced soil carbon emissions from global drylands

Dryland carbon fluxes, particularly those driven by ecosystem respiration, are highly sensitive to water availability and rain pulses. However, the magnitude of rain-induced carbon emissions remains unclear globally. Here we quantify the impact of rain-pulse events on the carbon balance of global drylands and characterize their spatiotemporal controls. Using eddy-covariance observations of carbon, water and energy fluxes from 34 dryland sites worldwide, we produce an inventory of over 1,800 manually identified rain-induced CO2 pulse events. Based on this inventory, a machine learning algorithm is developed to automatically detect rain-induced CO2 pulse events. Our findings show that existing partitioning methods underestimate ecosystem respiration and photosynthesis by up to 30% during rain-pulse events, which annually contribute 16.9 ± 2.8% of ecosystem respiration and 9.6 ± 2.2% of net ecosystem productivity. We show that the carbon loss intensity correlates most strongly with annual productivity, aridity and soil pH. Finally, we identify a universal decay rate of rain-induced CO2 pulses and use it to bias-correct respiration estimates. Our research highlights the importance of rain-induced carbon emissions for the carbon balance of global drylands and suggests that ecosystem models may largely underrepresent the influence of rain pulses on the carbon cycle of drylands.

Nguyen, Ngoc B↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decarbonizing the grid: Utilizing demand-side flexibility for carbon emission reduction through locational marginal emissions in distribution networks

Decarbonization of the electric grid has become an important world-wide priority and is actively happening in many ways by introducing innovations and new technologies from the generation sectors to the demand sectors. In particular, one promising pathway toward such net-zero carbon emissions is to utilize the demand-side flexibility with the increasing number of flexible loads in distribution networks. In this paper, we explore a load shifting strategy with the emerging concept of location marginal emissions (LMEs) to reduce carbon emissions. LMEs measure the impact of carbon emissions including the locational aspect in more granular way and thus provide a novel mechanism for the system operator and load aggregators to design the LME-based load shifting strategy, which can efficiently guide consumers and thus adjust their consumption behaviors. Simulation case studies on the IEEE test networks are performed to validate the capability of the proposed load shifting method to reduce carbon emissions. We also compare this with other relevant strategies to discuss multiple scenarios and corresponding results. Finally, while each provides a different level of flexibility, all the explored strategies tested have led to solutions that have lower carbon emissions, indicating the great potential of demand-side flexibility in reducing carbon emissions for future distribution networks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Feasibility Study of Real-Time Carbon Emission Responsive Electric Vehicle Charging Control in Buildings: Preprint

With the progressing electrification of the transportation sector, the source of carbon emissions is gradually shifting from fossil fuel to grid electricity because of electric vehicles (EVs). The carbon intensity of the grid can fluctuate significantly within hours due to the time-varying power generation mix. Therefore, shifting EV charging loads to cleaner hours in response to the carbon intensity signals can reduce carbon emissions. Existing EV charging control methods typically consider the electricity price or the available generation by distributed energy resources (e.g., photovoltaics) to inform decision-making. Such methods tend to reduce energy costs but may neglect the environmental impact of EV charging activities. We propose and compare four carbon emission responsive EV charging controllers with various control rules. The proposed controllers are evaluated based on simulation experiments using metrics such as carbon emission reduction potential, state of charge (SOC) at departure, and peak demand. We found that the need of EV owners to have full batteries at departure could lead to an emission increase when the curtailed EV charge was compensated before departure. Further, up to 12.7% of carbon emission reduction can be achieved if the EV owners reduce the target SOC at departure by less than 15%.

carbon emission↗
DOE OSTI2023

New Residential Construction Carbon Emissions

This fact sheet will help homebuilders better understand the largest sources of carbon emissions in constructed homes and see the comparative impact of those sources on overall emissions.

carbon, emissions, residential housing, constructi↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of a dynamic grid mix and climate on operational carbon emissions modeling for different building typologies and climate zones

Calculating operational carbon emissions through a building’s lifecycle is complex due to the dynamic nature of influencing factors such as climate and energy grid mix. This paper introduces a novel methodology for modeling 30-year operational carbon impacts of buildings and applies this method to mid-rise office and residential typologies across various US climate zones. The method accounts for these temporal variabilities using new and scarcely cited data sources. Key findings indicate that future changes in the climate, while impactful, play a relatively modest role in operational carbon emissions compared to significant reductions with modeling scenarios using the projected decarbonization of the electricity grid. Here, the study also finds that using annual, month-hourly, or hourly grid emission factors have a minimal impact on carbon accounting, except in certain climates and program types where emission patterns do not align with a building’s energy consumption. Warmer climates like Miami, Florida and Tucson, Arizona, which rely heavily on cooling, demonstrate larger variations in carbon emissions when using higher temporal resolution emission factors. Ultimately, this study underscores the critical role of grid decarbonization in reducing long-term emissions and the importance of incorporating this variable in life cycle assessment (LCA) modeling.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regional Carbon Emission Reduction Prediction via Retrofits of Commercial Buildings with a Case Study of US School Buildings in Hot Climates

Retrofitting commercial buildings has great potential to reduce carbon emissions as demonstrated by previous studies in some specific cities, but their regional carbon emission reduction potential is still unknown. Thus, we develop a method to predict the long-term regional carbon emission reduction potential by retrofitting commercial buildings. School buildings in hot climate zones in the continental U.S. are selected as an example. The results show that the aggregated carbon emission reduction potential of school buildings in that region reduces from 3.33 to 2.01 megatons from 2024 to 2050 due to the increased penetration of renewable energy.

building energy simulation↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of electric vehicle battery recycling on reducing raw material demand and battery life-cycle carbon emissions in China

The rapid growth of electric vehicles (EVs) in China challenges raw material demand. This study evaluates the impact of recycling and reusing EV batteries on reducing material demand and carbon emissions. Integrating a national-level vehicle stock turnover model with life-cycle carbon emission assessment, we found that replacing nickel-cobalt-manganese batteries with lithium iron phosphate batteries with battery recycling can reduce lithium, cobalt, and nickel demand between 2021 and 2060 by up to 7.8 million tons (Mt) (67%), 12.4 Mt (96%), and 37.2 Mt (93%), respectively, significantly decreasing reliance on import. Moreover, battery recycling coupled with reuse can reduce carbon emissions by up to 6,532-6,864 Mt (36.0-37.9%), depending on four recycling methods employed. However, this reuse strategy delays battery recycling and risks lithium supply shortage, necessitating trade-offs between carbon reduction and material supply. Future technologies, such as lithium-sulfur and all-solid-state batteries, despite their energy efficiency, might exacerbate lithium shortage, underscoring the crucial need for increased lithium supply.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Decarbonizing or illusion? How carbon emissions of commercial building operations change worldwide

To lead the low-carbon transition in global buildings, this study is the first to use the generalized Divisia index method (GDIM) to identify the factors driving carbon emissions and assess the decarbonization performance in commercial building operations (CBOs) of sixteen countries during 2000–2019. Results show that (1) while the global carbon emissions from CBOs have increased at a modest rate of 0.9%/yr, this trend runs counter to the declining emissions in the U.S. (-1.1%/yr) and the significant growth in China (14.4%/yr), which can be attributed to the impact of economy-related factors. (2) The U.S. and China, as the largest emitters, contributed 66.8% of the samples’ decarbonization of CBOs (919.1 million tons of carbon dioxide). (3) Most countries’ CBOs had a decarbonization efficiency level of less than 10%, except for Spain (27.8%). Spain excelled in both areas of per capita and per floor area with an average efficiency of nearly 30%. Moreover, ridge regression successfully confirms the stability of GDIM results and it should be noted GDIM has limitations in characterizing the end-use activity. Overall, this study tracks the historical decarbonization of global CBOs and offers benchmarks for different emitters to forecast the dynamic of building emissions along with economic booms.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Potential of artificial intelligence in reducing energy and carbon emissions of commercial buildings at scale

Artificial intelligence has emerged as a technology to enhance productivity and improve life quality. However, its role in building energy efficiency and carbon emission reduction has not been systematically studied. This study evaluated artificial intelligence’s potential in the building sector, focusing on medium office buildings in the United States. A methodology was developed to assess and quantify potential emissions reductions. Key areas identified were equipment, occupancy influence, control and operation, and design and construction. Six scenarios were used to estimate energy and emissions savings across representative climate zones. Here we show that artificial intelligence could reduce cost premiums, enhancing high energy efficiency and net zero building penetration. Adopting artificial intelligence could reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions by approximately 8% to 19% in 2050. Combining with energy policy and low-carbon power generation could approximately reduce energy consumption by 40% and carbon emissions by 90% compared to business-as-usual scenarios in 2050.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

New Residential Construction Carbon Emissions

This fact sheet will help homebuilders better understand the largest sources of carbon emissions in constructed homes and see the comparative impact of those sources on overall emissions. Opportunities are highlighted for innovation and carbon reduction through material choices.

carbon emissions↗
DOE OSTI2024

Long-Term Assessment of Commercial Building Energy and Carbon Emissions in the Northwestern Region Under Future Weather Trend

The future climate significantly impacts building performance and increases uncertainties in energy simulations. A rising temperature trend is expected to heighten cooling loads during summer and result in more carbon emissions. Understanding the impact of future climate on building performance is significant for policymakers to make informed decisions. Building retrofit measures can improve building energy efficiency and reduce operational carbon emissions, yet their effects under future climate conditions have not been fully investigated so far. Thus, we proposed an assessment methodology for evaluating long-term energy consumption and operational carbon reduction potential using a building stock dataset. For this study, commercial buildings in the northwestern (NW) region were utilized to assess the impacts of future climate and building retrofit. In addition, we selected Montana with a cold and dry climate as an example to analyze and discuss the carbon emission reduction potential in buildings. The main findings are: (1) Under future climate trends, changes in energy use intensity (EUI) will fluctuate due to variations in heating and cooling degree-days (HDDs and CDDs) and increasing HDDs will lead to increasing EUI. (2) After applying annual building retrofitting, the long-term EUI reduction potential of buildings in the NW region will decrease with the increasing retrofitting degree, and the short-term EUI reduction potential will be impacted by the change of heating and cooling degree days. (3) In Montana, the long-term carbon intensity reduction potential of retrofitted buildings will decrease under future climate trends with the increasing renewable energy penetration.

building energy modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global spatially explicit carbon emissions from land-use change over the past six decades (1961–2020)

Land-use change (LUC) is a major source of global anthropogenic carbon emissions that contribute to climate change. However, current estimates of LUC-induced emissions vary widely with differences in data and models, making it challenging to identify and manage emissions hotspots by location and LUC activity. Here, we estimated spatially explicit carbon fluxes associated with global major gross land-use transitions based on a new bookkeeping model (i.e., LUCE). Between 1961 and 2020, LUC induced 215 and 142 Pg C of global carbon emissions and removals, respectively, resulting in average net emissions (E LUC ) of 1.21 Pg C year −1 . Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa dominated global E LUC with 69% of 60-year cumulative emissions, or about 86% between 2001 and 2020. Forest-related LUC activities (e.g., deforestation, reforestation) contributed largely to both regional and global carbon fluxes. Our findings shed new light on identifying LUC-induced emissions hotspots and managing land for climate mitigation and conservation.

bookkeeping model↗
DOE OSTI2023

Life cycle cost, energy, and carbon emissions of molds for precast concrete: Exploring the impacts of material choices and additive manufacturing

Molds for precast concrete are commonly used to create simple- to complex-shaped concrete products away from construction sites. These molds are often handmade from wood; however, additively manufacturing (AM, or 3D printing) fiber-reinforced polymer composites is an advantageous alternative, producing significantly more durable, highly complex molds faster, but likely at a higher cost. Here, this study explores the impact of material and production variables on the cost, energy, and carbon emissions of employing composite AM molds over the full lifecycle. The case study employed techno-economic and life cycle assessments to show that using wood flour–poly(lactic acid) or recycled carbon fiber–acrylonitrile butadiene styrene for AM molds can be less expensive than conventional wood molds, especially when considering use phase costs. While wood molds have the least environmental impacts due to wood's higher biogenic carbon sequestration and minimal processing, optimizing AM designs could reduce energy demand, carbon emissions, and cost.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Carbon Emissions in a Typical New Production Home: A Case Study

This report is intended to serve as a foundational document for residential construction executives and leadership teams to understand how a typical home currently performs relative to building decarbonization goals set for 2030 and 2050. The intent is to help homebuilders benchmark their current performance and better understand the largest sources of carbon emissions in their homes. There is a need to understand and assess current performance against net zero carbon goals to define achievable paths forward. This case study highlights opportunities for innovation and carbon reduction through advanced technologies and material choices.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Carbon Emissions in a Typical New Production Home: A Case Study

This report, prepared by IBACOS, is intended to serve as a foundational document for the residential construction industry to understand how a typical home currently performs relative to building decarbonization goals set for 2030 and 2050. The intent is to help homebuilders benchmark their current performance and better understand the largest sources of carbon emissions in their homes.

Carbon Emissions↗
DOE OSTI2024

Choosing the Best Carbon Factor for the Job: Exploring Available Carbon Emissions Factors and the Impact of Factor Selection: Preprint

Over 600 local governments in the United States, including nearly half of the largest 100 cities, have enacted climate action plans that include carbon reduction goals and greenhouse gas inventories (Markolf et al. 2020). The magnitude of these goals ranges from modest reduction targets to carbon neutrality. None will be met without significant contributions from the buildings sector. Understanding how energy efficiency and building electrification impact greenhouse gas emissions requires local, time-sensitive, and forward-looking carbon emissions factors for electricity use in buildings. There are a variety of emissions factors currently available from various sources, including average emissions factors and historical short-run marginal emissions factors. Long-run marginal emissions factors and future-year short-run marginal emissions factors are also now available from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Cambium data sets. In this paper, we describe the different carbon emissions factors available, including both conventional sources and newly available options. We discuss the types of analyses each emissions factor is best suited to support. Then, using residential energy efficiency and electrification load profiles, we demonstrate how different conclusions result from different choices of carbon emissions factors. For two grid regions, we explore takeaways of using current versus future-year emissions, short-run versus long-run, and levelized versus single-year values. We include a framework for selecting the best carbon emissions factor for the job.

carbon emissions factors↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Guide for Creating a Building-Level Action Plan to Improve Energy Efficiency and Reduce Carbon Emissions

Action plans are tools for commercial building owners to create pathways for reducing energy use and decarbonize, hence reducing carbon emissions. This template and associated direction manual provides a method for creating an action plan. Originally created for the Better Buildings Low Carbon Pilot, it can also be applied to the Better Buildings Climate Challenge and for any building owner striving towards lower carbon footprints.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗