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At least 19 records

Evaluating the Impact of Residential Solar Contract Cancellations in the United States

The residential solar photovoltaic (PV) market in the United States is growing, despite frequent customer cancellations. Contract cancellations result in lost time and costs that must be borne by installers, often in the form of higher "soft costs" (i.e., non-equipment costs). These costs are often passed on to customers who successfully install PV systems. To date, few studies have attempted to estimate national cancellation rates or model the impacts on installed system costs. In this report, we utilize an installer-provided dataset of 199,665 residential PV-only projects representing about 10% of U.S. installs each year from 2017-2019. With this data, we evaluate cancellation rates and trends from contract signing to install. Next, by leveraging NREL's soft cost model for residential solar, we estimate installer spending through each phase of the pre-install process. Applying our findings on cancellation timelines and rates, we then estimate the potential cost impacts to successful installs from contract cancellations. Our work suggests that the rates and impacts of contract cancellations have been previously underestimated. Namely, we find that cancellations/unsuccessful project are; more common than previous estimates suggest; occur earlier in project timelines, though a significant number happen even after permit/ATB approvals; and contribute significantly to customer acquisition and other soft costs. We also find that cancellation do not appear to be driven by review delays in permitting and interconnection applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Finetuned Cancellations and Improbable Theories

It is argued that the x–y cancellation model (XYCM) is a good proxy for discussions of finetuned cancellations in physical theories. XYCM is then analyzed from a statistical perspective, where it is argued that a finetuned point in the parameter space is not abnormal, with any such point being just as probable as any other point. However, landing inside a standardly defined finetuned region (i.e., the full parameter space of finetuned points) has a much lower probability than landing outside the region, and that probability is invariant under assumed ranges of parameters. This proposition requires asserting also that the finetuned target region is a priori established. Furthermore, it is surmised that highly finetuned theories are generally expected to be highly improbable. An actionable implication of this moderate naturalness position is that the search for a non-finetuned explanation to supplant an apparently finetuned theory is likely to be a valid pursuit, but not guaranteed to be. A statistical characterization of this moderate position is presented, as well as those of the extreme pro-naturalness and anti-naturalness positions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Noise-canceling quantum feedback: Non-Hermitian dynamics with applications to state preparation and magic state distillation

Time-continuous quantum measurement allows for the tracking of a quantum system in real time via sequences of short, and individually weak, measurement intervals. Such measurements are necessarily invasive, imparting backaction to the system, and allowing the observer to update their state estimate based on stochastic measurement outcomes. Feedback control then involves real-time interventions by an observer, conditioned on the time-continuous measurement signal that they receive. Here, we consider here diffusive quantum trajectories and focus on the “noise-canceling” subset of feedback protocols that aim to minimize the degree of stochasticity in the dynamics. We derive such a class of feedback operations, showing that under the idealized assumptions of pure states, unit measurement efficiency, and zero time delay in implementing feedback operations, perfectly noise-canceling feedback always exists. We consider the resulting noise-canceled dynamics generated by an effective non-Hermitian Hamiltonian; while non-Hermitian Hamiltonians from continuous monitoring generally describe rare dynamics (accessible by costly postselection), the use of noise-canceling feedback here leads to non-Hermitian dynamics that occur deterministically. We demonstrate this via examples of entangled state preparation and stabilization. We then illustrate the potential for the application of noise cancellation to boost success rates in magic state distillation protocols. We show that adding feedback based on noise cancellation into a time-continuous five-to-one distillation protocol leads to higher probabilities of successful distillation across a range of input errors and increases the threshold on input errors for which the protocol is effective. Our results highlight the efficacy of noise-canceling feedback-aided protocols for quantum state preparation and stabilization tasks.

Karmakar, Tathagata [University of California, Ber↗

Prostaglandin E2 Restores Cancellous Bone to Immobilized Limb and Adds Bone to Overloaded Limb in Right Hindlimb Immobilization Rats

The purpose of this study was to determine whether prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) can restore cancellous bone mass and architecture to osteopenic, continuously immobilized (IM), proximal tibial metaphysis (PTM) in female rats. The right hindlimb of three and one-half-month-old Sprague-Dawley female rats were immobilized by right hindlimb immobilization (RHLI) in which the right hindlimb was underloaded and the contralateral left limb was overloaded during ambulation. After 4 or 12 weeks of RHLI, the rats were treated with 3 or 6 mg PGE2/kg/day and RHLI for 8 or 16 weeks. Bone histomorphometry was performed on microradiographs of PTM. Immobilization (IM) induced a transient cancellous bone loss and decreased trabecular thickness, number and node density, and increased free end density that established a new steady state after 4 weeks of IM. Three or 6 mg PGE2/kg/d for 8 weeks beginning at 4 or 12 weeks of IM completely restored cancellous bone mass (+127 to +188 percent) and structure to the age-related control levels in spite of continuous IM. Another 8 weeks of treatment maintained bone mass and architecture at these levels. No differences in cancellous bone mass and architecture were found between the overloaded PTM or RHLI rats and the age-related controls. However, 3 and 6 mg/kg/d of PGE2 treatment started at 4 or 12 weeks for 8 weeks significantly increased cancellous bone mass in the overloaded PTM (+45 to +74% of untreated controls), and another 8 weeks of treatment maintained bone mass at these levels. Our findings indicate that daily 3 or 6 mg PGE2/kg/d treatment restores and maintains PTM cancellous bone mass in continuously immobilized (right) tibiae, and adds and maintains extra bone to slightly overloaded PTM cancellous bone in female rats.

Li, M.↗

Magnetic Flux Cancelation as the Buildup and Trigger Mechanism for CME-Producing Eruptions in Two Small Active Regions

We follow two small, magnetically isolated CME-producing solar active regions (ARs) from the time of their emergence until several days later, when their core regions erupt to produce the CMEs. In both cases, magnetograms show: (a) following an initial period where the poles of the emerging regions separate from each other, the poles then reverse direction and start to retract inward; (b) during the retraction period, flux cancelation occurs along the main neutral line of the regions, (c) this cancelation builds the sheared core field/flux rope that eventually erupts to make the CME. In the two cases, respectively 30% and 50% of the maximum flux of the region cancels prior to the eruption. Recent studies indicate that solar coronal jets frequently result from small-scale filaments eruptions, with those "minifilament" eruptions also being built up and triggered by cancelation of magnetic flux. Together, the small-AR eruptions here and the coronal jet results suggest that isolated bipolar regions tend to erupt when some threshold fraction, perhaps in the range of 50%, of the region's maximum flux has canceled. Our observed erupting filaments/flux ropes form at sites of flux cancelation, in agreement with previous observations. Thus, the recent finding that minifilaments that erupt to form jets also form via flux cancelation is further evidence that minifilaments are small-scale versions of the long-studied full-sized filaments.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗

Magnetic Flux Cancelation as the Buildup and Trigger Mechanism for CME-Producing Eruptions in two Small Active Regions

We follow two small, magnetically isolated CME-producing solar active regions (ARs) from the time of their emergence until the time that their core regions erupt to produce the CMEs several days later. In both cases, magnetograms show: (a) following an initial period where the poles of the emerging regions separate from each other, the poles then reverse direction and start to retract inward; (b) during the retraction period, flux cancelation occurs along the main neutral line of the regions, (c) this cancelation builds the sheared core field/flux rope that eventually erupts to make the CME. In the two cases, respectively 30% and 50% of the maximum flux of the region cancels prior to the eruption. Recent studies indicate that solar coronal jets frequently result from small-scale filaments eruptions, with those “minifilament” eruptions also being built up and triggered by cancelation of magnetic flux. Together, the small-AR eruptions here and the coronal jet results suggest that isolated bipolar regions tend to erupt before or when a threshold of roughly 50% of the region’s maximum flux has canceled. Our observed erupting filaments/flux ropes form at sites of flux cancelation, in agreement with previous observations. Thus, the recent finding that minifilaments that erupt to form jets also form via flux cancelation is further evidence that minifilaments are small-scale versions of the long-studied full-sized filaments.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗

Magnetic Flux Cancelation as the Buildup and Trigger Mechanism for CME-Producing Eruptions in Two Small Active Regions

We follow two small, magnetically isolated CME (Coronal Mass Ejection)-producing solar active regions (ARs) from the time of their emergence until several days later, when their core regions erupt to produce the CMEs. In both cases, magnetograms show: (a) following an initial period where the poles of the emerging regions separate from each other, the poles then reverse direction and start to retract inward; (b) during the retraction period, flux cancelation occurs along the main neutral line of the regions, (c) this cancelation builds the sheared core field/flux rope that eventually erupts to make the CME. In the two cases, respectively 30 percent and 50 percent of the maximum flux of the region cancels prior to the eruption. Recent studies indicate that solar coronal jets frequently result from small-scale filaments eruptions (Sterling et al. 2015), with those “minifilament” eruptions also being built up and triggered by cancelation of magnetic flux (Panesar et al. 2016). Together, the small-AR eruptions here and the coronal jet results suggest that isolated bipolar regions tend to erupt when some threshold fraction, perhaps in the range of 50 percent, of the region’s maximum flux has canceled. Our observed erupting filaments/flux ropes form at sites of flux cancelation, in agreement with previous observations. Thus, the recent finding that minifilaments that erupt to form jets also form via flux cancelation is further evidence that minifilaments are small-scale versions of the long-studied full-sized filaments. (Details are in Sterling et al. 2018, ApJ, 864, 68.) Supported by NASA's Heliophysics Guest Investigators (HGI) Program and the MSFC (Marshall Space Flight Center)/Hinode project.

Sterling, Alphonse C.↗

Harmonic cancellation within AC low voltage distribution for a realistic office environment

An increase of non-linear loads, primarily from power electronics, has substantially increased current harmonics in commercial buildings, which contributes to decreased transformer efficiency / lifespan and poor power quality. This study uses recorded power consumption data from common miscellaneous electric loads (MELs) seen in offices, combined with detailed characterizations of example MELs, to simulate harmonic cancellation within building circuits. Typically, harmonic cancellation studies assume that AC converters operate across their rated power range. However, this study finds that common MELs operate below 40% of rated power the majority of the time when not quiescent; 89% of sampled devices never operated above 60% of rated power. Simulations using these more realistic power levels indicate current-harmonic cancellation (3rd to 13th harmonic) is significantly lower than that predicted when using full-range power assumptions, resulting in minor errors for low-order harmonics and larger errors for higher order harmonics. Furthermore, increased MELs load diversity increases harmonic cancellation, but insufficiently to eliminate errors. In contrast, blending lighting loads with MELs on the secondaries of distribution transformers improves harmonic cancellation to near those predicted by traditional methods. These results indicate that realistic power levels, as well as better characterization of harmonics from typical MELs, should be used to estimate harmonic cancellation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Development and experimental verification of an active noise cancellation (ANC) method for non-invasive sensing

Ultrasonic wave propagation may be used in non-invasive sensing to identify the properties of a fluid in a container. An ultrasonic excitation can be coupled into the liquid or the gas through the walls of the container and detected by a receiver on the other side. However, in addition to this fluid path, another signal will also propagate through the structure and is referred as noise in this study. For most materials, this structural noise will be of higher amplitude compared to the fluid signal due to the large acoustic impedance difference between the solid container and the fluid. In this paper, an active noise cancellation (ANC) method is developed and demonstrated on an experimental setup. It was shown that this method cancels more than 90% of the noise signal in a given time window of interest. A sequential version of this cancellation method is also proposed, and it was shown that its performance improves as the number of canceling excitations is increased. The performance was found to be independent of the location of canceling transducers and position of the silence window but dependent on the width of the silence window. As an example, the ANC method was applied to noise cancellation of a signal travelling through water in a stainless-steel container. The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the water signal in the window of interest was increased by 148% from 13.98 dB to 34.68 dB by using the proposed ANC method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

FLUX CANCELLATION AND THE EVOLUTION OF THE ERUPTIVE FILAMENT OF 2011 JUNE 7

We investigate whether flux cancellation is responsible for the formation of a very massive filament resulting in the spectacular eruption on 2011 June 7. We analyze and quantify the amount of flux cancellation that occurs in NOAA AR 11226 and its two neighboring active regions (ARs 11227 and 11233) using line-of-sight magnetograms from the Heliospheric Magnetic Imager. During a 3.6 day period building up to the eruption of the filament, 1.7 × 10{sup 21} Mx, 21% of AR 11226's maximum magnetic flux, was canceled along the polarity inversion line (PIL) where the filament formed. If the flux cancellation continued at the same rate up until the eruption then up to 2.8 × 10{sup 21} Mx (34% of the AR flux) may have been built into the magnetic configuration that contains the filament plasma. The large flux cancellation rate is due to an unusual motion of the positive-polarity sunspot, which splits, with the largest section moving rapidly toward the PIL. This motion compresses the negative polarity and leads to the formation of an orphan penumbra where one end of the filament is rooted. Dense plasma threads above the orphan penumbra build into the filament, extending its length, and presumably injecting material into it. We conclude that the exceptionally strong flux cancellation in AR 11226 played a significant role in the formation of its unusually massive filament. In addition, the presence and coherent evolution of bald patches in the vector magnetic field along the PIL suggest that the magnetic field configuration supporting the filament material is that of a flux rope.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Magnetic Flux Cancellation as the Origin of Solar Quiet-region Pre-jet Minifilaments

We investigate the origin of 10 solar quiet-region pre-jet minifilaments , using EUV images from the Solar Dynamics Observatory ( SDO )/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and magnetograms from the SDO Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI). We recently found that quiet-region coronal jets are driven by minifilament eruptions, where those eruptions result from flux cancellation at the magnetic neutral line under the minifilament. Here, we study the longer-term origin of the pre-jet minifilaments themselves. We find that they result from flux cancellation between minority-polarity and majority-polarity flux patches. In each of 10 pre-jet regions, we find that opposite-polarity patches of magnetic flux converge and cancel, with a flux reduction of 10%–40% from before to after the minifilament appears. For our 10 events, the minifilaments exist for periods ranging from 1.5 hr to 2 days before erupting to make a jet. Apparently, the flux cancellation builds a highly sheared field that runs above and traces the neutral line, and the cool transition region plasma minifilament forms in this field and is suspended in it. We infer that the convergence of the opposite-polarity patches results in reconnection in the low corona that builds a magnetic arcade enveloping the minifilament in its core, and that the continuing flux cancellation at the neutral line finally destabilizes the minifilament field so that it erupts and drives the production of a coronal jet. Thus, our observations strongly support that quiet-region magnetic flux cancellation results in both the formation of the pre-jet minifilament and its jet-driving eruption.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Lift Equivalence and Cancellation for Airfoil Surge–Pitch–Plunge Oscillations

A NACA 0018 airfoil in freestream velocity is oscillated in longitudinal, transverse, and angle-of-attack directions with respect to the freestream velocity, known as surge, plunge, and pitch. The lift-based equivalence method introduces phase shifts between these three motions to construct in-phase sinusoidal components for maximum lift, waveform construction. Lift cancellation is also determined with the exact negative pitch and plunge motion amplitudes found from the equivalence method to achieve out-of-phase wave destruction. Lift cancellation occurs when a combination of these motions is sought to obtain a constant lift magnitude throughout the oscillation cycle. To achieve both equivalence and cancellation of lift, a prescribed pure pitch amplitude through the Theodorsen theory equates the corresponding equivalent plunge amplitude and pitch–plunge phase shift. These Theodorsen, linear superposition findings of pitch–plunge are leveraged toward the Greenberg theory to determine a closed-form, surge–pitch–plunge solution through the addition of a surge–plunge phase shift and optimal surge amplitude for lift cancellation. The lift cancellation surge–pitch–plunge amplitudes define the equivalence amplitude investigated here and theoretically limit the experiment to combinations of the first lift harmonic of the Greenberg theory. The analytical results are then compared with experimental lift force measurements and dye visualization. Finally, the normalized lift differences due to unsteady wake and boundary-layer behavior are examined to explore the extents of the Greenberg theory for these cases of lift-based equivalence and cancellation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

The association of flares to cancelling magnetic features on the sun

Previous work relating flares to evolutionary changes of photospheric solar magnetic fields are reviewed and reinterpreted in the light of recent observations of canceling magnetic fields. The results show that cancelation happens with fields spanning a wide range of magnetic field strengths. Flares of all magnitudes begin adjacent to cancelation sites, whether the associated active region as a whole is developing or decaying. Both small and big flares are initiated near canceling sites, from the microflares associated with ephemeral regions to the kernels of the great flares. Canceling magnetic flux is observed or deduced to be the common denominator among all observed associations of flares to changing magnetic fields. It is proposed that canceling magnetic fields are a necessary evolutionary condition for the initiation of solar flares.

Livi, Silvia H. B.↗

Anabolic Responses of an Adult Cancellous Bone Site to Prostaglandin E2 in the Rat

The objects of this study were to determine: (1) the response of a non-growing cancellous bone site to daily prostaglandin E2 (PGE2) administration; and (2) the differences in the effects of daily PGE2, administration in growing (proximal tibial metaphysis, PTM) and non-growing cancellous bone sites (distal tibial metaphysis, DTM). Seven-month-old male Sprague-Dawley rats were given daily subcutaneous injections of 0, 1, 3 and 6 mg PGE2/kg per day for 60, 120 and 180 days. The static and dynamic histomorphometric analyses were performed on double-fluorescent labeled undecalcified distal tibial metaphyses (DTM). No age-related changes were found in static and dynamic histomorphometry of DTM cancellous bone between 7 and 13 months of age. The DTM of 7-month-old (basal controls) rats consisted of a 24.5 +/- 7.61%-metaphyseal cancellous bone mass, and a thick trabeculae (92 +/- 12 micro-m). It also had a very low tissue-base bone formation rate (3.0 +/- 7.31%/year). Exogenous PGE2 administration produced the following transient changes in a dose-response manner between zero and 60 days: (1) increased trabecular bone mass and improved architecture (increased trabecular bone area, width and number, and decreased trabecular separation); (2) increased trabecular interconnections: (3) increased bone formation parameters; and (4) decreased eroded perimeter. A new steady state with more cancellous bone mass and higher bone turnover was observed from day 60 onward, The elevated bone mass induced by the first 60 days of PGE2 treatment was maintained by another 60 and 120 days with continuous daily PGE2 treatment. When these findings were compared to those previously reported for the PTM, we found that the DTM was much more responsive to PGE2 treatment than the PTM. Percent trabecular bone area and tissue based bone formation rate increased significantly more in DTM as compared to PTM after the 60 days of 6 mg PGE2 treatment. These observations indicate that a non-growing cancellous bone site is more responsive than growing bone site to long-term daily administration of PGE2.

Ito, Hiroshi↗

Flux Cancellation Leading to CME Filament Eruptions

Solar filaments are strands of relatively cool, dense plasma magnetically suspended in the lower density hotter solar corona. They trace magnetic polarity inversion lines (PILs) in the photosphere below, and are supported against gravity at heights of up to approx.100 Mm above the chromosphere by the magnetic field in and around them. This field erupts when it is rendered unstable, often by magnetic flux cancellation or emergence at or near the PIL. We have studied the evolution of photospheric magnetic flux leading to ten observed filament eruptions. Specifically, we look for gradual magnetic changes in the neighborhood of the PIL prior to and during eruption. We use Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) images from the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA), and magnetograms from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), both on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), to study filament eruptions and their photospheric magnetic fields. We examine whether flux cancellation or/and emergence leads to filament eruptions. We find that continuous flux cancellation was present at the PIL for many hours prior to each eruption. We present two CME-producing eruptions in detail and find the following: (a) the pre-eruption filament-holding core field is highly sheared and appears in the shape of a sigmoid above the PIL; (b) at the start of the eruption the opposite arms of the sigmoid reconnect in the middle above the site of (tether-cutting) flux cancellation at the PIL; (c) the filaments first show a slow-rise, followed by a fast-rise as they erupt. We conclude that these two filament eruptions result from flux cancellation in the middle of the sheared field, and thereafter evolve in agreement with the standard model for a CME/flare filament eruption from a closed bipolar magnetic field [flux cancellation (van Ballegooijen and Martens 1989 and Moore and Roumelrotis 1992) and runaway tether-cutting (Moore et. al 2001)].

filament↗

Adaptive noise canceling for transient absorption microscopy

Significance: Ultrafast fiber lasers are an attractive alternative to bulk lasers for nonlinear optical microscopy for their compactness and low cost. The high relative intensity noise (RIN) of these lasers poses a challenge for pump-probe measurements such as transient absorption and stimulated Raman scattering, along with modalities that provide label-free contrast from the vibrational and electronic structure of molecules. Aim: Digital adaptive filtering was applied to determine the applicability for canceling laser RIN in a transient absorption microscope with an ultrafast fiber laser source. Approach: Digitized signals from the transmitted probe and reference photodetectors were fed to an adaptive filter in MATLAB, running in a noise canceling configuration. This result was then fed to a software lock-in algorithm to demodulate the pump-probe signal. Images were built up one line scan at a time with a 3.5-kHz resonant scanner, with 100× averaging. The imaging target was Bi4Ge3O12, which exhibits nondegenerate two-photon absorption at the pump/probe wavelengths used (530-nm pump and 490-nm probe). Results: Without adaptive noise cancellation, the lock-in output primarily passes the laser RIN within its detection bandwidth, resulting in images that closely follow the linear transmissivity and lack sensitivity to pump-probe time delay. With adaptive noise cancellation in front of the lock-in, the RIN rejection is enough to restore the z-sectioning and sensitivity to pump-probe delay, as expected for transient absorption. Results were limited primarily by noise from the photodetector and analog-to-digital converter. Conclusions: Digital adaptive noise cancellation, even when limited by electronics noise, can recover pump-probe signals by removal of laser RIN, under conditions where averaging alone fails.

42 ENGINEERING↗