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NASA NTRS2011

A New Business Model for Problem Solving-Infusing Open Collaboration and Innovation Health and Human Services

This slide presentation reviews the Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) new business model for problem solving, with emphasis on open collaboration and innovation. The topics that are discussed are: an overview of the work of the Space Life Sciences Directorate and the strategic initiatives that arrived at the new business model. A new business model was required to infuse open collaboration/innovation tools into existing models for research, development and operations (research announcements, procurements, SBIR/STTR etc). This new model involves use of several open innovation partnerships: InnoCentive, Yet2.com, TopCoder and NASA@work. There is also a new organizational structure developed to facilitate the joint collaboration with other NASA centers, international partners, other U.S. Governmental organizations, Academia, Corporate, and Non-Profit organizations: the NASA Human Health and Performance Center (NHHPC).

Davis, Jeffrey R.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Financial Comparisons across Different Business Models in the Canadian Airline Industry

This paper examines the accounting and stock price performance of two Canadian airlines, WestJet and Air Canada, over a five year period, taking into account the aftermath of the systemic shock to the airline industry produced by the September 11, 2001 (9-11), terrorist attacks and subsequent events such as the 2002 SARS outbreak, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the accompanying rise in jet fuel prices. Our study focuses on the viability of low-cost versus conventional-cost business models in Canada under the current business environment and the ability of airlines to withstand and effectively respond to catastrophic industry events. Furthermore, we link the effectiveness of the airlines responses to these events to specific elements of their respective business models. We test our hypothesis through a case study. We focus on WestJet as a typical low-cost airline and compare its accounting and stock performance to Air Canada, a legacy carrier and rival in several business sectors. We find WestJet to be much less affected by catastrophic industry events. By decomposing each airline s return volatility, we observe that WestJet s systematic and unsystematic risk increased only slightly during the industry's post-9-11 turmoil when compared to Air Canada. In addition, we find that both WestJet s accounting and stock performance have been highly superior to those of Air Canada. We argue that WestJet s business model provides the firm with significantly more financial and operational flexibility than its legacy rival, Air Canada. WestJet's lower operating costs, high consumer trust, product offering, corporate structure, workforce and work practices, as well as operational procedures are all factors that appear to contribute to its relative success.

Flouris, Triant↗

NASA NTRS2010

Consistency Across Standards or Standards in a New Business Model

Presentation topics include: standards in a changing business model, the new National Space Policy is driving change, a new paradigm for human spaceflight, consistency across standards, the purpose of standards, danger of over-prescriptive standards, a balance is needed (between prescriptive and general standards), enabling versus inhibiting, characteristics of success-oriented standards, characteristics of success-oriented standards, and conclusions. Additional slides include NASA Procedural Requirements 8705.2B identifies human rating standards and requirements, draft health and medical standards for human rating, what's been done, government oversight models, examples of consistency from anthropometry, examples of inconsistency from air quality and appendices of government and non-governmental human factors standards.

Russo, Dane M.↗

NASA NTRS2005

The Space Laser Business Model

Creating long-duration, high-powered lasers, for satellites, that can withstand the type of optical misalignment and damage dished out by the unforgiving environment of space, is work that is unique to NASA. It is complicated, specific work, where each step forward is into uncharted territory. In the 1990s, as this technology was first being created, NASA gave free reign to a group of "laser jocks" to develop their own business model and supply the Space Agency with the technology it needed. It was still to be a part of NASA as a division of Goddard Space Flight Center, but would operate independently out of a remote office. The idea for this satellite laboratory was based on the Skunk Works concept at Lockheed Martin Corporation. Formerly known as the Lockheed Corporation, in 1943, the aerospace firm, realizing that the type of advanced research it needed done could not be performed within the confines of a larger company, allowed a group of researchers and engineers to essentially run their own microbusiness without the corporate oversight. The Skunk Works project, in Burbank, California, produced America s first jet fighter, the world s most successful spy plane (U-2), the first 3-times-the-speed-of-sound surveillance aircraft, and the F-117A Nighthawk Stealth Fighter. Boeing followed suit with its Phantom Works, an advanced research and development branch of the company that operates independent of the larger unit and is responsible for a great deal of its most cutting-edge research. NASA s version of this advanced business model was the Space Lidar Technology Center (SLTC), just south of Goddard, in College Park, Maryland. Established in 1998 under a Cooperative Agreement between Goddard and the University of Maryland s A. James Clark School of Engineering, it was a high-tech laser shop where a small group of specialists, never more than 20 employees, worked all hours of the day and night to create the cutting- edge technology the Agency required of them. Drs. Robert Afzal and Joseph Dallas were directors of the SLTC, and led the development and production of active spaceborne, remote-sensing, optical instruments. As a pioneer in the area of photonics, Dr. Dallas led basic research, development, and production of semiconductor laser diode products, improving coupling efficiency through novel physical optics modeling and intracavity phase-correction techniques. He worked for NASA for 15 years, 11 of which were as a civil servant, and 4 of which were as a contractor.

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NASA NTRS2014

Open Innovation at NASA: A New Business Model for Advancing Human Health and Performance Innovations

This paper describes a new business model for advancing NASA human health and performance innovations and demonstrates how open innovation shaped its development. A 45 percent research and technology development budget reduction drove formulation of a strategic plan grounded in collaboration. We describe the strategy execution, including adoption and results of open innovation initiatives, the challenges of cultural change, and the development of virtual centers and a knowledge management tool to educate and engage the workforce and promote cultural change.

Davis, Jeffrey R.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Crowd Sourcing for Challenging Technical Problems and Business Model

Crowd sourcing may be defined as the act of outsourcing tasks that are traditionally performed by an employee or contractor to an undefined, generally large group of people or community (a crowd) in the form of an open call. The open call may be issued by an organization wishing to find a solution to a particular problem or complete a task, or by an open innovation service provider on behalf of that organization. In 2008, the Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD), with the support of Wyle Integrated Science and Engineering, established and implemented pilot projects in open innovation (crowd sourcing) to determine if these new internet-based platforms could indeed find solutions to difficult technical challenges. These unsolved technical problems were converted to problem statements, also called "Challenges" or "Technical Needs" by the various open innovation service providers, and were then posted externally to seek solutions. In addition, an open call was issued internally to NASA employees Agency wide (10 Field Centers and NASA HQ) using an open innovation service provider crowd sourcing platform to post NASA challenges from each Center for the others to propose solutions). From 2008 to 2010, the SLSD issued 34 challenges, 14 externally and 20 internally. The 14 external problems or challenges were posted through three different vendors: InnoCentive, Yet2.com and TopCoder. The 20 internal challenges were conducted using the InnoCentive crowd sourcing platform designed for internal use by an organization. This platform was customized for NASA use and promoted as NASA@Work. The results were significant. Of the seven InnoCentive external challenges, two full and five partial awards were made in complex technical areas such as predicting solar flares and long-duration food packaging. Similarly, the TopCoder challenge yielded an optimization algorithm for designing a lunar medical kit. The Yet2.com challenges yielded many new industry and academic contacts in bone imaging, microbial detection and even the use of pharmaceuticals for radiation protection. The internal challenges through NASA@Work drew over 6000 participants across all NASA centers. Challenges conducted by each NASA center elicited ideas and solutions from several other NASA centers and demonstrated rapid and efficient participation from employees at multiple centers to contribute to problem solving. Finally, on January 19, 2011, the SLSD conducted a workshop on open collaboration and innovation strategies and best practices through the newly established NASA Human Health and Performance Center (NHHPC). Initial projects will be described leading to a new business model for SLSD.

Davis, Jeffrey R.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Collaborative Business Models for Exploration: - The Expansion of Public-Private Partnerships to Enable Exploration and Improve the Quality of Life on Earth

In May of 2007, The Space Life Sciences Strategy was published, launching a series of efforts aimed at driving human health and performance innovations that both meet space flight needs and benefit life on Earth. These efforts, led by the Space Life Science Directorate (SLSD) at the NASA Johnson Space Center, led to the development and implementation of the NASA Human Health and Performance Center (NHHPC) in October 2010. The NHHPC now has over 100 members including seven NASA centers; other federal agencies; some of the International Space Station partners; industry; academia and non-profits. The NHHPC seeks to share best practices, develop collaborative projects and experiment with open collaboration techniques such as crowdsourcing. Using this approach, the NHHPC collaborative projects are anticipated to be at the earliest possible stage of development utilizing the many possible public-private partnerships in this center. Two workshops have been successfully conducted in 2011 (January and October) with a third workshop planned for the spring of 2012. The challenges of space flight are similar in many respects to providing health care and environmental monitoring in challenging settings on the earth. These challenges to technology development include the need for low power consumption, low weight, in-situ analysis, operator independence (i.e., minimal training), robustness, and limited resupply or maintenance. When similar technology challenges are identified (such as the need to provide and monitor a safe water supply or develop a portable medical diagnostic device for remote use), opportunities arise for public-private partnerships to engage in co-creation of novel approaches for space exploration and health and environmental applications on earth. This approach can enable the use of shared resources to reduce costs, engage other organizations and the public in participatory exploration (solving real-world problems), and provide technologies with multiple uses for space exploration and life on earth. Several examples will be provided that demonstrate the application of a technology to solve a space exploration need and to provide a positive impact to the quality of life on earth.

Davis, Jeffrey R.↗

NASA NTRS2021

The Evolution of Team-X: 25 Years of Concurrent Engineering Design Experience

Established in 1995 in response to NASA’s “Faster, Better, Cheaper” era, Team-X was born from a need to perform rapid space mission design for principal investigator-led competed proposals. The success and sustainability of Team-X over the 25 years that have followed is directly attributable to the Team-X business model and its evolution over time. While dozens of organizations and institutions have emulated the Team-X design process, there are nuances to the Team-X business model that are unique to JPL, and explain why it is different than other concurrent design teams. One of the key components of a business model is the customer segments that are served. Team-X was founded to conduct the Pre-Phase A work necessary to formulate a portfolio of multiple planetary mission concepts, but has since expanded to include the capability to conduct studies for Earth science, astrophysics, and heliophysics missions as well as Human Exploration and Operations missions and space technology development. Team-X delivers value to its clients both in terms of speed and cost. Team-X has also added value by creating teams to enable the development of Instrument and SmallSat Concepts. Value has further been enhanced through a revision of its process for reviews and the addition of pre-design architecting capabilities. Other aspects of the Team-X infrastructure, in addition to study process, have enabled it to succeed for over a quarter century. From our most important resource, the people, our tools, especially for cost estimating, as well as our increasing capable IT infrastructure have contributed to our capability to meet the demands of our clients. The Team-X business model and its evolution over time, position it well for success in the decades to come.

Murphy, Jonathan↗

NASA NTRS1996

Aeroelastic Calculations Using CFD for a Typical Business Jet Model

Two time-accurate Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes were used to compute several flutter points for a typical business jet model. The model consisted of a rigid fuselage with a flexible semispan wing and was tested in the Transonic Dynamics Tunnel at NASA Langley Research Center where experimental flutter data were obtained from M(sub infinity) = 0.628 to M(sub infinity) = 0.888. The computational results were computed using CFD codes based on the inviscid TSD equation (CAP-TSD) and the Euler/Navier-Stokes equations (CFL3D-AE). Comparisons are made between analytical results and with experiment where appropriate. The results presented here show that the Navier-Stokes method is required near the transonic dip due to the strong viscous effects while the TSD and Euler methods used here provide good results at the lower Mach numbers.

Gibbons, Michael D.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Commercial Research and Development: Power to Explore, Opportunities from Discovery

The technical and economic goals of commercial use of space are laudable, and are addressed as a high priority by almost every national space program and most major aerospace companies the world over. Yet, the focus of most organizational agendas and discussions tends to focus on one or two very narrow enabling aspects of this potentially large technological and economic opportunity. While government sponsored commercial launch activities and private space platforms are an integral part of efforts to leverage the commercial use of space, these activities are possibly one of the smallest parts of creating, a viable and sustainable market for the commercial use of space. Most of the current programs usually do not appropriately address some of the critical issues of the current, already interested, potential space user communities. Current programs place the focus of the majority of the user requirements on the vehicle payload weight and mass performance considerations as the primary payload economical factor in providing a commercial market with a stimulating price for gaining access to the space environment. The larger user challenges of transformation from Earth-based research and development approaches to space environment approaches are not addressed early enough in programs to impact the new business considerations of potential users. Currently, space-based research and development user activities require a large user investment in time, in development of new areas of support expertise, in development of new systems, in risk of schedule to completion, and in long term capital positioning. The larger opportunities for stimulating a strong market driven interest in commercial use of space that could result from the development of vehicle payload "leap ahead technologies" for users are being missed, and there is a real risk of limiting the potentially broader market base to support a more technologically advanced and economically lucrative outcome. A major driving force for strengthening the commercial space activities is not only the technological advances in launch vehicle, or newer satellites, but the myriad of enabling payloads technologies that could, as a goal, result in an almost transparent facilitation to regular CD a, -n access to space and microgravity environments by the future users from the existing Earth-based research and development organizations market segments. Rather than focusing only on developing high lift performance launch vehicles and then developing payloads to fit them, the real focus from a business model perspective should to be on the customer payloads requirements, and on designing launch vehicles and platforms systems for a space transportation and facility infrastructure to support all aspects of the business model for the user market. To harness the full potential of space commercialization, new efforts need to be made to comprehensively examine all the critical business model areas for commercial research, development, and manufacturing in space so as to identify specific products and efforts; to determine how such operations must be both similar to and different from current Earth-based activities; to evaluate the enabling technological devices, processes and efforts so that like efforts can be addressed in a synergistic fashion for maximum user cost effectiveness; to delineate the services that are both needed and can be provided by such activities; and to use this information to drive design and development of space commercialization efforts and policy.

Casas, Joseph C.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Transformations in Air Transportation Systems For the 21st Century

Globally, our transportation systems face increasingly discomforting realities: certain of the legacy air and ground infrastructures of the 20th century will not satisfy our 21st century mobility needs. The consequence of inaction is diminished quality of life and economic opportunity for those nations unable to transform from the 20th to 21st century systems. Clearly, new thinking is required regarding business models that cater to consumers value of time, airspace architectures that enable those new business models, and technology strategies for innovating at the system-of-networks level. This lecture proposes a structured way of thinking about transformation from the legacy systems of the 20th century toward new systems for the 21st century. The comparison and contrast between the legacy systems of the 20th century and the transformed systems of the 21st century provides insights into the structure of transformation of air transportation. Where the legacy systems tend to be analog (versus digital), centralized (versus distributed), and scheduled (versus on-demand) for example, transformed 21st century systems become capable of scalability through technological, business, and policy innovations. Where air mobility in our legacy systems of the 20th century brought economic opportunity and quality of life to large service markets, transformed air mobility of the 21st century becomes more equitable available to ever-thinner and widely distributed populations. Several technological developments in the traditional aircraft disciplines as well as in communication, navigation, surveillance and information systems create new foundations for 21st thinking about air transportation. One of the technological developments of importance arises from complexity science and modern network theory. Scale-free (i.e., scalable) networks represent a promising concept space for modeling airspace system architectures, and for assessing network performance in terms of robustness, resilience, and other metrics. The lecture offers an air transportation system topology and a scale-free network linkage graphic as framework for transportation system innovation. Successful outcomes of innovation in air transportation could lay the foundations for new paradigms for aircraft and their operating capabilities, air transportation system topologies, and airspace architectures and procedural concepts. These new paradigms could support scalable alternatives for the expansion of future air mobility to more consumers in more parts of the world.

Holmes, Bruce J.↗

NASA NTRS1997

A Study of Business Incubators: Models, Best Practices, and Recommendations for NASA and Florida

This study was conducted to provide NASA-Kennedy Space Center with information and recommendations to support establishing one or more technology-based business incubators In Florida. The study involved assembling information about incubators: why they succeed, why they fail, how they are organized, and what services they provide. Consequently, this study focuses on widely-recognized "best practices," needed to establish successful technology- based business incubators. The findings are used to optimize the design and implementation of one or more technology-based business incubators to be established in Florida. Recommendations reflect both the essential characteristics of successful incubators and the optimal business demographics in Florida. Appendix A provides a fuller description of the objectives of the study. Technology-based business incubators are an increasing catalyst of new business development across the USi Incubators focus on providing entrepreneurs and small start-up firms with a wide array of support services necessary to bring forth new products and processes based on technologies developed in the nation's federal and private laboratories and universities. Appendix B provides extensive discussion of findings relative to technology- based business incubators.

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NASA NTRS2004

Transportation Network Topologies

A discomforting reality has materialized on the transportation scene: our existing air and ground infrastructures will not scale to meet our nation's 21st century demands and expectations for mobility, commerce, safety, and security. The consequence of inaction is diminished quality of life and economic opportunity in the 21st century. Clearly, new thinking is required for transportation that can scale to meet to the realities of a networked, knowledge-based economy in which the value of time is a new coin of the realm. This paper proposes a framework, or topology, for thinking about the problem of scalability of the system of networks that comprise the aviation system. This framework highlights the role of integrated communication-navigation-surveillance systems in enabling scalability of future air transportation networks. Scalability, in this vein, is a goal of the recently formed Joint Planning and Development Office for the Next Generation Air Transportation System. New foundations for 21PstP thinking about air transportation are underpinned by several technological developments in the traditional aircraft disciplines as well as in communication, navigation, surveillance and information systems. Complexity science and modern network theory give rise to one of the technological developments of importance. Scale-free (i.e., scalable) networks represent a promising concept space for modeling airspace system architectures, and for assessing network performance in terms of scalability, efficiency, robustness, resilience, and other metrics. The paper offers an air transportation system topology as framework for transportation system innovation. Successful outcomes of innovation in air transportation could lay the foundations for new paradigms for aircraft and their operating capabilities, air transportation system architectures, and airspace architectures and procedural concepts. The topology proposed considers air transportation as a system of networks, within which strategies for scalability of the topology may be enabled by technologies and policies. In particular, the effects of scalable ICNS concepts are evaluated within this proposed topology. Alternative business models are appearing on the scene as the old centralized hub-and-spoke model reaches the limits of its scalability. These models include growth of point-to-point scheduled air transportation service (e.g., the RJ phenomenon and the 'Southwest Effect'). Another is a new business model for on-demand, widely distributed, air mobility in jet taxi services. The new businesses forming around this vision are targeting personal air mobility to virtually any of the thousands of origins and destinations throughout suburban, rural, and remote communities and regions. Such advancement in air mobility has many implications for requirements for airports, airspace, and consumers. These new paradigms could support scalable alternatives for the expansion of future air mobility to more consumers in more places.

Holmes, Bruce J.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Transportation Network Topologies

A discomforting reality has materialized on the transportation scene: our existing air and ground infrastructures will not scale to meet our nation's 21st century demands and expectations for mobility, commerce, safety, and security. The consequence of inaction is diminished quality of life and economic opportunity in the 21st century. Clearly, new thinking is required for transportation that can scale to meet to the realities of a networked, knowledge-based economy in which the value of time is a new coin of the realm. This paper proposes a framework, or topology, for thinking about the problem of scalability of the system of networks that comprise the aviation system. This framework highlights the role of integrated communication-navigation-surveillance systems in enabling scalability of future air transportation networks. Scalability, in this vein, is a goal of the recently formed Joint Planning and Development Office for the Next Generation Air Transportation System. New foundations for 21st thinking about air transportation are underpinned by several technological developments in the traditional aircraft disciplines as well as in communication, navigation, surveillance and information systems. Complexity science and modern network theory give rise to one of the technological developments of importance. Scale-free (i.e., scalable) networks represent a promising concept space for modeling airspace system architectures, and for assessing network performance in terms of scalability, efficiency, robustness, resilience, and other metrics. The paper offers an air transportation system topology as framework for transportation system innovation. Successful outcomes of innovation in air transportation could lay the foundations for new paradigms for aircraft and their operating capabilities, air transportation system architectures, and airspace architectures and procedural concepts. The topology proposed considers air transportation as a system of networks, within which strategies for scalability of the topology may be enabled by technologies and policies. In particular, the effects of scalable ICNS concepts are evaluated within this proposed topology. Alternative business models are appearing on the scene as the old centralized hub-and-spoke model reaches the limits of its scalability. These models include growth of point-to-point scheduled air transportation service (e.g., the RJ phenomenon and the Southwest Effect). Another is a new business model for on-demand, widely distributed, air mobility in jet taxi services. The new businesses forming around this vision are targeting personal air mobility to virtually any of the thousands of origins and destinations throughout suburban, rural, and remote communities and regions. Such advancement in air mobility has many implications for requirements for airports, airspace, and consumers. These new paradigms could support scalable alternatives for the expansion of future air mobility to more consumers in more places.

Holmes, Bruce J.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Regulation, Competition and Network Evolution in Aviation

Our focus is the evolution of business strategies and network structure decisions in the commercial passenger aviation industry. The paper reviews the growth of hub-and-spoke networks as the dominant business model following deregulation in the latter part of the 20 century, followed by the emergence of value-based airlines as a global phenomenon at the end of the century. The paper highlights the link between airline business strategies and network structures, and examines the resulting competition between divergent network structure business models. In this context we discuss issues of market structure stability and the role played by competition policy.

Gillen, David↗

NASA NTRS2008

Evolution and Reengineering of NASA's Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF)

The NASA Goddard Space Flight Center's Flight Dynamics Facility (FDF) is a multimission support facility that performs ground navigation and spacecraft trajectory design services for a wide range of scientific satellites. The FDF also supports the NASA Space Network by providing orbit determination and tracking data evaluation services for the Tracking Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS). The FDF traces its history to early NASA missions in the 1960's, including navigation support to the Apollo lunar missions. Over its 40 year history, the FDF has undergone many changes in its architecture, services offered, missions supported, management approach, and business operation. As a fully reimbursable facility (users now pay 100% of all costs for FDF operations and sustaining engineering activities), the FDF has faced significant challenges in recent years in providing mission critical products and services at minimal cost while defining and implementing upgrades necessary to meet future mission demands. This paper traces the history of the FDF and discusses significant events in the past that impacted the FDF infrastructure and/or business model, and the events today that are shaping the plans for the FDF in the next decade. Today's drivers for change include new mission requirements, the availability of new technology for spacecraft navigation, and continued pressures for cost reduction from FDF users. Recently, the FDF completed an architecture study based on these drivers that defines significant changes planned for the facility. This paper discusses the results of this study and a proposed implementation plan. As a case study in how flight dynamics operations have evolved and will continue to evolve, this paper focuses on two periods of time (1992 and the present) in order to contrast the dramatic changes that have taken place in the FDF. This paper offers observations and plans for the evolution of the FDF over the next ten years. Finally, this paper defines the mission model of the future for the FDF based on NASA's current mission list and planning for the Constellation Program. As part of this discussion the following are addressed: the relevance and benefits of a multi-mission facility for NASA's navigation operations in the future; anticipated technologies affecting ground orbit determination; continued incorporation of Commercial Off-the-shelf (COTS) software into the FDF; challenges of a business model that relies entirely on user fees to fund facility upgrades; anticipated changes in flight dynamics services required; and considerations for defining architecture upgrades given a set of cost drivers.

Stengle, Thomas↗

NASA NTRS2005

Business Intelligence Modeling in Launch Operations

This technology project is to advance an integrated Planning and Management Simulation Model for evaluation of risks, costs, and reliability of launch systems from Earth to Orbit for Space Exploration. The approach builds on research done in the NASA ARC/KSC developed Virtual Test Bed (VTB) to integrate architectural, operations process, and mission simulations for the purpose of evaluating enterprise level strategies to reduce cost, improve systems operability, and reduce mission risks. The objectives are to understand the interdependency of architecture and process on recurring launch cost of operations, provide management a tool for assessing systems safety and dependability versus cost, and leverage lessons learned and empirical models from Shuttle and International Space Station to validate models applied to Exploration. The systems-of-systems concept is built to balance the conflicting objectives of safety, reliability, and process strategy in order to achieve long term sustainability. A planning and analysis test bed is needed for evaluation of enterprise level options and strategies for transit and launch systems as well as surface and orbital systems. This environment can also support agency simulation .based acquisition process objectives. The technology development approach is based on the collaborative effort set forth in the VTB's integrating operations. process models, systems and environment models, and cost models as a comprehensive disciplined enterprise analysis environment. Significant emphasis is being placed on adapting root cause from existing Shuttle operations to exploration. Technical challenges include cost model validation, integration of parametric models with discrete event process and systems simulations. and large-scale simulation integration. The enterprise architecture is required for coherent integration of systems models. It will also require a plan for evolution over the life of the program. The proposed technology will produce long-term benefits in support of the NASA objectives for simulation based acquisition, will improve the ability to assess architectural options verses safety/risk for future exploration systems, and will facilitate incorporation of operability as a systems design consideration, reducing overall life cycle cost for future systems. The future of business intelligence of space exploration will focus on the intelligent system-of-systems real-time enterprise. In present business intelligence, a number of technologies that are most relevant to space exploration are experiencing the greatest change. Emerging patterns of set of processes rather than organizational units leading to end-to-end automation is becoming a major objective of enterprise information technology. The cost element is a leading factor of future exploration systems.

Bardina, Jorge E.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Southern Rockies Western Slope Agriculture: Identifying Drivers of Rangeland Production for Drought Planning on the Western Slope of the Southern Rockies

Over the last decade, the southern Rocky Mountains of the United States have experienced increasingly severe and variable drought. Local ranchers and landowners have reported strain on their operations, citing decreasing forage production for their cattle and a need to adjust their business models, even considering abandoning their businesses altogether. The study identified Major Land Resource Area-48 (MLRA-48) and northwestern Colorado as the key region for analysis. NASA DEVELOP partnered with the BLM Colorado River Field Office, Colorado State University Extension, USDA Forest Service, and the National Drought Mitigation Center to address stakeholder concerns of the efficacy of existing remotely sensed rangeland production estimation platforms and explore possible early warning climatic indicators of drought. The study identified two key rangeland platforms, the Rangeland Production Monitoring Service (RPMS) and Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP) and used in-situ data to statistically validate their efficacy. RAP outperformed RPMS in estimating in-situ biomass and was therefore used in our climate modeling. Our study performed a random forest analysis, sampling 1500 points across the study area, comparing monthly RAP biomass estimates to a variety of climatic variables, including mean precipitation, temperature, palmer drought severity index, snow water equivalent, wind speed and direction, and vapor pressure deficit. After analysis, our study determined that vapor pressure deficit is a key indicator in predicting forage production in MLRA-48. Our study recommends the use of RAP in estimating potential forage, with caution for its tendency to overestimate. Our climate analysis provided our partners with greater understanding of the influence of various climatic factors in determining forage production and allows them to assist landowners in planning for future drought.

Addie Gonzalez↗