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AI/ML-Enhanced Wind Forecasts for Reducing Uncertainty in Prescribed Fire Planning

Prescribed fire is a vital tool for ecosystem management and wildfire risk reduction but its escalation is constrained by overly conservative burn windows because of uncertainties, for instance, in wind forecasts. This review describes the state of the art in weather product use by fire/smoke models and identifies three priority research gaps that artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) is well positioned to address: (1) spatial and temporal downscaling to meter-scale, sub-hourly wind fields; (2) bias correction for systematic model errors in complex terrain; and (3) robust uncertainty quantification to inform ensemble-based simulations. Emerging AI/ML techniques offer promising frameworks to address all three challenges. By providing high-resolution, bias-corrected, and probabilistic wind fields, AI/ML-enhanced forecasts will allow for expanded burn windows, improved ignition strategy design and a reduced reliance on expert intuition, especially when a prescribed fire is introduced into new areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Initiation system for low thrust motor igniter

A test program was carried out to demonstrate an igniter motor initiation system utilizing the bimetallic material Pyrofuze for a solid propellant rocket with controlled low rate of thrust buildup. The program consisted of a series of vacuum ignition tests using a slab burning window motor that simulated the principal initial ballistic parameters of the full scale igniter motor. A Pyrofuze/pyrotechnic igniter system was demonstrated that uses a relatively low electrical current level for initiation and that eliminates the necessity of a pyrotechnic squib, with its accompanying accidental firing hazards and the typical basket of pyrotechnic pellets. The Pyrofuze ignition system does require an initial constraining of the igniter motor nozzle flow, and at the low initiating electrical current level the ignition delay time of this system was found to be quite sensitive to factors affecting local heat generation or loss rates.

Strand, L. D.

Three Orbital Burns to Molniya Orbit via Shuttle Centaur G Upper Stage

An unclassified analytical trajectory design, performance, and mission study was done for the 1982-86 joint NASA-USAF Shuttle/Centaur G upper stage development program to send performance-demanding payloads to high orbits such as Molniya using an unconventional orbit transfer. This optimized three orbital burn transfer to Molniya orbit was compared to the then-baselined two burn transfer. The results of the three dimensional trajectory optimization performed include powered phase steering data and coast phase orbital element data. Time derivatives of the orbital elements as functions of thrust components were evaluated and used to explain the optimization's solution. Vehicle performance as a function of parking orbit inclination was given. Performance and orbital element data was provided for launch windows as functions of launch time. Ground track data was given for all burns and coasts including variation within the launch window. It was found that a Centaur with fully loaded propellant tanks could be flown from a 37deg inclination low Earth parking orbit and achieve Molniya orbit with comparable performance to the baselined transfer which started from a 57deg inclined orbit: 9,545 lb vs. 9,552 lb of separated spacecraft weight respectively. There was a significant reduction in the need for propellant launch time reserve for a one hour window: only 78 lb for the three burn transfer vs. 320 lb for the two burn transfer. Conversely, this also meant that longer launch windows over more orbital revolutions could be done for the same amount of propellant reserve. There was no practical difference in ground tracking station or airborne assets needed to secure telemetric data, even though the geometric locations of the burns varied considerably. There was a significant adverse increase in total mission elapsed time for the three vs. two burn transfer (12 vs. 11/4 hrs), but could be accommodated by modest modifications to Centaur systems. Future applications were discussed. The three burn transfer was found to be a viable, arguably preferable, alternative to the two burn transfer.

Orbital trajectory design

Three Orbital Burns to Molniya Orbit Via Shuttle_Centaur G Upper Stage

An unclassified analytical trajectory design, performance, and mission study was done for the 1982 to 1986 joint National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)-United States Air Force (USAF) Shuttle/Centaur G upper stage development program to send performance-demanding payloads to high orbits such as Molniya using an unconventional orbit transfer. This optimized three orbital burn transfer to Molniya orbit was compared to the then-baselined two burn transfer. The results of the three dimensional trajectory optimization performed include powered phase steering data and coast phase orbital element data. Time derivatives of the orbital elements as functions of thrust components were evaluated and used to explain the optimization's solution. Vehicle performance as a function of parking orbit inclination was given. Performance and orbital element data was provided for launch windows as functions of launch time. Ground track data was given for all burns and coasts including variation within the launch window. It was found that a Centaur with fully loaded propellant tanks could be flown from a 37 deg inclination low Earth parking orbit and achieve Molniya orbit with comparable performance to the baselined transfer which started from a 57 deg inclined orbit: 9,545 versus 9,552 lb of separated spacecraft weight, respectively. There was a significant reduction in the need for propellant launch time reserve for a 1 hr window: only 78 lb for the three burn transfer versus 320 lb for the two burn transfer. Conversely, this also meant that longer launch windows over more orbital revolutions could be done for the same amount of propellant reserve. There was no practical difference in ground tracking station or airborne assets needed to secure telemetric data, even though the geometric locations of the burns varied considerably. There was a significant adverse increase in total mission elapsed time for the three versus two burn transfer (12 vs. 1-1/4 hr), but could be accommodated by modest modifications to Centaur systems. Future applications were discussed. The three burn transfer was found to be a viable, arguably preferable, alternative to the two burn transfer.

Orbital trajectory design

James Webb Space Telescope Launch Window Trade Analysis

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is a large-scale space telescope mission designed to study fundamental astrophysical questions ranging from the formation of the universe to the origin of planetary systems and the origins of life. JWSTs orbit design is a Libration Point Orbit (LPO) around the Sun-EarthMoon (SEM) L2 point for a planned mission lifetime of 10.5 years. The launch readiness period for JWST is from Oct 1st, 2018 November 30th, 2018. This paper presents the first launch window analysis for the JWST observatory using finite-burn modeling; previous analysis assumed a single impulsive midcourse correction to achieve the mission orbit. The physical limitations of the JWST hardware stemming primarily from propulsion, communication and thermal requirements alongside updated mission design requirements result in significant launch window within the launch readiness period. Future plans are also discussed.

James Webb Space Telescope

Launch Window Trade Analysis for the James Webb Space Telescope

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is a large-scale space telescope mission designed to study fundamental astrophysical questions ranging from the formation of the universe to the origin of planetary systems and the origins of life. JWSTs orbit design is a Libration Point Orbit (LPO) around the Sun-Earth/Moon (SEM) L2 point for a planned mission lifetime of 10.5 years. The launch readiness period for JWST is from Oct 1st, 2018 November 30th, 2018. This paper presents the first launch window analysis for the JWST observatory using finite-burn modeling; previous analysis assumed a single impulsive midcourse correction to achieve the mission orbit. The physical limitations of the JWST hardware stemming primarily from propulsion, communication and thermal requirements alongside updated mission design requirements result in significant launch window within the launch readiness period. Future plans are also discussed.

window

A Portable, High Resolution, Surface Measurement Device

A high resolution, portable, surface measurement device has been demonstrated to provide micron-resolution topographical plots. This device was specifically developed to allow in-situ measurements of defects on the Space Shuttle Orbiter windows, but is versatile enough to be used on a wide variety of surfaces. This paper discusses the choice of an optical sensor and then the decisions required to convert a lab bench optical measurement device into an ergonomic portable system. The necessary trade-offs between performance and portability are presented along with a description of the device developed to measure Orbiter window defects.

Ihlefeld, Curtis M.

The starting transient of solid propellant rocket motors with high internal gas velocities

A comprehensive analytical model which considers time and space development of the flow field in solid propellant rocket motors with high volumetric loading density is described. The gas dynamics in the motor chamber is governed by a set of hyperbolic partial differential equations, that are coupled with the ignition and flame spreading events, and with the axial variation of mass addition. The flame spreading rate is calculated by successive heating-to-ignition along the propellant surface. Experimental diagnostic studies have been performed with a rectangular window motor (50 cm grain length, 5 cm burning perimeter and 1 cm hydraulic port diameter), using a controllable head-end gaseous igniter. Tests were conducted with AP composite propellant at port-to-throat area ratios of 2.0, 1.5, 1.2, and 1.06, and head-end pressures from 35 to 70 atm. Calculated pressure transients and flame spreading rates are in very good agreement with those measured in the experimental system.

Peretz, A.

Launch and Assembly Reliability Analysis for Mars Human Space Exploration Missions

NASA s long-range goal is focused upon human exploration of Mars. Missions to Mars will require campaigns of multiple launches to assemble Mars Transfer Vehicles in Earth orbit. Launch campaigns are subject to delays, launch vehicles can fail to place their payloads into the required orbit, and spacecraft may fail during the assembly process or while loitering prior to the Trans-Mars Injection (TMI) burn. Additionally, missions to Mars have constrained departure windows lasting approximately sixty days that repeat approximately every two years. Ensuring high reliability of launching and assembling all required elements in time to support the TMI window will be a key enabler to mission success. This paper describes an integrated methodology for analyzing and improving the reliability of the launch and assembly campaign phase. A discrete event simulation involves several pertinent risk factors including, but not limited to: manufacturing completion; transportation; ground processing; launch countdown; ascent; rendezvous and docking, assembly, and orbital operations leading up to TMI. The model accommodates varying numbers of launches, including the potential for spare launches. Having a spare launch capability provides significant improvement to mission success.

Cates, Grant R.

Synthesis of optically clear polymeric materials for high temperature windows

A polymer has been developed that has excellent potential for use as windows in spacecraft as well as conventional aircraft. This polymer, phenolphthalein polycarbonate, has outstanding thermal properties, e.g., in place of melting or burning, it produces an insulating charred foam that closes off transmission of radiant heat through the window. This fact, coupled with an oxygen index of 0.43 and a 177 C tensile strength of 58 mega Newtons/sq m, makes this polymer a prime candidate for further development. Pilot plant preparation in a 20 gallon Pfaudler kettle was accomplished and large test specimens were prepared for evaluations.

Pannell, C. E.

Space vehicle deployment from Space Station

When launching a spacecraft from Earth parking orbit to deep space, it is highly desirable to have the hyperbolic excess velocity vector (v-infinity) contained in the parking orbit plane. Ground launches can force the parking orbit plane to contain the v-infinity vector by using launch azimuth and lift-off time as independent variables. When launching from the Space Station, a new set of variables comes into play. The Space Station orbit is of fixed inclination but precessing due to the Earth's oblateness. Its plane will seldom (and may never) contain the desired v-infinity vector. Consequently, the departure strategy will usually require multiple burns and include a plane change. Also, the concept of 'launch window' will be somewhat different from Earth surface launches. An analysis of the deployment of interplanetary spacecraft from the Space Station is described, with emphasis on the effect of the trajectory characteristics on station operations. Several planetary mission types are analyzed, including manned Mars missions and unmanned high declination departures. The constraint of Space Station orbit nodal position is quantified and the operational implications for Space Station reboost strategy are examined.

Henry, Paul K.

Development of Ionic Liquid Monopropellants for In-Space Propulsion

A family of new, low toxicity, high energy monopropellants is currently being evaluated at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center for in-space rocket engine applications such as reaction control engines. These ionic liquid monopropellants, developed in recent years by the Air Force Research Laboratory, could offer system simplification, less in-flight thermal management, and reduced handling precautions, while increasing propellant energy density as compared to traditional storable in-space propellants such as hydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide. However, challenges exist in identifying ignition schemes for these ionic liquid monopropellants, which are known to burn at much hotter combustion temperatures compared to traditional monopropellants such as hydrazine. The high temperature combustion of these new monopropellants make the use of typical ignition catalyst beds prohibitive since the catalyst cannot withstand the elevated temperatures. Current research efforts are focused on monopropellant ignition and burn rate characterization, parameters that are important in the fundamental understanding of the monopropellant behavior and the eventual design of a thruster. Laboratory studies will be conducted using alternative ignition techniques such as laser-induced spark ignition and hot wire ignition. Ignition delay, defined as the time between the introduction of the ignition source and the first sign of light emission from a developing flame kernel, will be measured using Schlieren visualization. An optically-accessible liquid monopropellant burner, shown schematically in Figure 1 and similar in design to apparatuses used by other researchers to study solid and liquid monopropellants, will be used to determine propellant burn rate as a function of pressure and initial propellant temperature. The burn rate will be measured via high speed imaging through the chamber s windows.

Blevins, John A.

Development of Ionic Liquid Monopropellants for In-Space Propulsion

A family of new, low toxicity, high energy monopropellants is currently being evaluated at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center for in-space rocket engine applications such as reaction control engines. These ionic liquid monopropellants, developed in recent years by the Air Force Research Laboratory, could offer system simplification, less in-flight thermal management, and reduced handling precautions, while increasing propellant energy density as compared to traditional storable in-space propellants such as hydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide. However, challenges exist in identifying ignition schemes for these ionic liquid monopropellants, which are known to burn at much hotter combustion temperatures compared to traditional monopropellants such as hydrazine. The high temperature combustion of these new monopropellants make the use of typical ignition catalyst beds prohibitive since the catalyst cannot withstand the elevated temperatures. Current research efforts are focused on monopropellant ignition and burn rate characterization, parameters that are important in the fundamental understanding of the monopropellant behavior and the eventual design of a thruster. Laboratory studies will be conducted using alternative ignition techniques such as laser-induced spark ignition and hot wire ignition. Ignition delay, defined as the time between the introduction of the ignition source and the first sign of light emission from a developing flame kernel, will be measured using Schlieren visualization. An optically-accessible liquid monopropellant burner will be used to determine propellant burn rate as a function of pressure and initial propellant temperature. The burn rate will be measured via high speed imaging through the chamber s windows.

Blevins, John A.

Space Launch System Launch Windows and Day of Launch Processes

Lunar missions benefit from varying the launch azimuth as a function of launch time to allow longer launch windows with minimum performance impacts. This variable azimuth approach allows the vehicle to track the Moon’s apparent motion due to Earth’s rotation. The Space Launch System (SLS) Block 1 vehicle design requires the mission to launch into an elliptical parking orbit to provide sufficient energy to insert Orion into a Trans-Lunar Injection (TLI) orbit. The primary benefit of varying the launch azimuth, and as a result the achieved orbit inclination, allows the SLS Interim Cryogenic Propulsion Stage (ICPS) to perform its TLI burn closer to perigee and take advantage of performing a burn in a location where the burn will optimally raise apogee.

launch window

Design and use of a servo-controlled high pressure window bomb in spectroscopic studies of solid propellant combustion

The feasibility of using a high pressure window bomb as a laboratory scale model of actual motor conditions. The design and operation of a modified high pressure window bomb is discussed. An optical servocontrol mechanism has been designed to hold the burning surface of a propellant strand at a fixed position within the bomb chamber. This mechanism permits the recording of visible and infrared emission spectra from various propellants. Preliminary visible emission spectra of a nonmetalized and metalized propellant are compared with spectra recorded using the modified bomb.

Goetz, F.

Interactive orbital proximity operations planning system instruction and training guide

This guide instructs users in the operation of a Proximity Operations Planning System. This system uses an interactive graphical method for planning fuel-efficient rendezvous trajectories in the multi-spacecraft environment of the space station and allows the operator to compose a multi-burn transfer trajectory between orbit initial chaser and target trajectories. The available task time (window) of the mission is predetermined and the maneuver is subject to various operational constraints, such as departure, arrival, spatial, plume impingement, and en route passage constraints. The maneuvers are described in terms of the relative motion experienced in a space station centered coordinate system. Both in-orbital plane as well as out-of-orbital plane maneuvering is considered. A number of visual optimization aids are used for assisting the operator in reaching fuel-efficient solutions. These optimization aids are based on the Primer Vector theory. The visual feedback of trajectory shapes, operational constraints, and optimization functions, provided by user-transparent and continuously active background computations, allows the operator to make fast, iterative design changes that rapidly converge to fuel-efficient solutions. The planning tool is an example of operator-assisted optimization of nonlinear cost functions.

Grunwald, Arthur J.

Measuring Response Of Propellant To Oscillatory Heat Flux

Apparatus for research in combustion of solid propellants measures oscillatory response of rate of burning to oscillating thermal radiation from modulated CO2 laser. Determines response to rate of burning to equivalent oscillation in pressure. Rod of propellant mounted in burner assembly including waveguide at one end and infrared window at other end. Microwave Doppler velocimeter measures motion of combustion front. Microwave, laser-current, and heat-flux signals processed into and recorded in forms useful in determining desired response of propellent.

Strand, Leon D.

Improvements in Modeling Thruster Plume Erosion Damage to Spacecraft Surfaces

Spacecraft bipropellant thrusters impact spacecraft surfaces with high speed droplets of unburned and partially burned propellant. These impacts can produce erosion damage to optically sensitive hardware and systems (e.g., windows, camera lenses, solar cells and protective coatings). On the International Space Station (ISS), operational constraints are levied on the position and orientation of the solar arrays to mitigate erosion effects during thruster operations. In 2007, the ISS Program requested evaluation of erosion constraint relief to alleviate operational impacts due to an impaired Solar Alpha Rotary Joint (SARJ). Boeing Space Environments initiated an activity to identify and remove sources of conservatism in the plume induced erosion model to support an expanded range of acceptable solar array positions  The original plume erosion model over-predicted plume erosion and was adjusted to better correlate with flight experiment results. This paper discusses findings from flight experiments and the methodology employed in modifying the original plume erosion model for better correlation of predictions with flight experiment data. The updated model has been successful employed in reducing conservatism and allowing for enhanced flexibility in ISS solar array operations.

Soares, Carlos