Results for “breakeven cost”

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

How the Allocation of Lander Functions Impacts the Cost Breakeven for Lunar In-Situ Propellant Production

This study proposes to leverage the evaluation of the cost breakeven for using lunar-derived propellants as compared to those delivered from Earth, in support of an extended human exploration campaign as defined in a companion paper, to explore this architectural question: how do choices in the number and function of different vehicles performing lunar descent and ascent impact the cost breakeven of using in-situ propellant production relative to propellant delivery from Earth for a combination of human lunar and Mars missions?

Christopher A. Jones↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cost Breakeven Analysis of Lunar In-Situ Propellant Production for Human Missions to the Moon and Mars

NASA is preparing to return humans to the lunar surface as a first step to a human exploration campaign of Mars. Both a sustained lunar campaign and a campaign of missions to Mars will require tens to hundreds of tonnes of propellant. Although this propellant could be delivered from Earth, an alternative approach is to use the potentially vast quantities of lunar ice to enable in-situ propellant production on the lunar surface. This study evaluates the cost breakeven for using lunar-derived propellants, as opposed to those delivered from Earth, in support of an extended human exploration campaign with both a multi-year presence on the Moon as well as multiple crewed missions to Mars. In so doing, the value of lunar propellant production is considered in the context of future exploration priorities, addressing the question: over what range of human missions to the lunar surface and Mars does in-situ propellant production trade favorably with propellant delivery from Earth on the basis of cost? The results of this analysis show that the magnitude and duration of the lunar campaign, more so than the Mars campaign, drive the breakeven and that without long lifetime ISRU systems, with greater than 5 years of autonomous operation before replacement, the demand in cis-lunar space for a Mars campaign favors propellant delivery from Earth.

Christopher A Jones↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Cost Breakeven Analysis of Lunar In-Situ Propellant Production for Human Missions to the Moon and Mars

NASA is preparing to return humans to the lunar surface as a first step to a human exploration campaign of Mars. Both a sustained lunar campaign and a campaign of missions to Mars will require tens to hundreds of tonnes of propellant. Although this propellant could be delivered from Earth, an alternative approach is to use the potentially vast quantities of lunar ice to enable in-situ propellant production on the lunar surface. This study evaluates the cost breakeven for using lunar-derived propellants, as opposed to those delivered from Earth, in support of an extended human exploration campaign with both a multi-year presence on the Moon as well as multiple crewed missions to Mars. In so doing, the value of lunar propellant production is considered in the context of future exploration priorities, addressing the question: over what range of human missions to the lunar surface and Mars does in-situ propellant production trade favorably with propellant delivery from Earth on the basis of cost? The results of this analysis show that the magnitude and duration of the lunar campaign, more so than the Mars campaign, drive the breakeven and that without long lifetime ISRU systems, with greater than 5 years of autonomous operation before replacement, the demand in cis-lunar space for a Mars campaign favors propellant delivery from Earth.

Christopher A. Jones↗

NASA NTRS2019

Cost Breakeven Analysis of Lunar ISRU for Human Lunar Surface Architectures

The return of humans to the lunar surface encompasses a range of possible architectures from brief Apollo-like sorties to long-term sustainment of human presence. Any architecture in this span requires propellant for the crew’s ascent from the lunar surface, as well as consumables to support their presence on the Moon. Oxygen and hydrogen are candidates for the propellant for the ascent vehicle due to their high specific impulse and potential for production from lunar resources and also constitute important consumables for the crew. Thus, the production of oxygen and/or hydrogen from lunar resources could significantly reduce the mass that must be sent from Earth to enable future human lunar missions. To assess the merits of using lunar resources, the costs associated with developing, producing, launching, operating, and maintaining those systems must be considered relative to the costs of delivering the needed resources from Earth. The demand for those resources depends upon the nature of the lunar mission, while the costs of both Earth-derived and lunar-derived resources depend on the performance requirements and technology capabilities associated with each approach. Thus, determining which approach is more cost efficient requires modeling the performance and cost of the associated systems as well as the range of possible architectures over which such a determination might apply. This research proposes a model that parametrically captures the factors influencing the relevant costs of providing propellant and crew consumables on the lunar surface from Earth and from the Moon. Two ISRU system models are assessed relative to propellant delivery from Earth. In this model, lunar ISRU breaks even with propellant delivery from Earth at high propellant demands and mission durations with multi-year ISRU system lifetimes; however, the costs of developing the necessary technologies to support a highly reliable and autonomous lunar ISRU system were not included.

ISRU↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Take Material to Space or Make It There?

Most human missions in space have been brief, lasting only days or weeks, and they have taken all the materials they need. Using the alternate method, the International Space Station recycles water and oxygen, and it is often assumed that future Moon and Mars missions should also recycle their life support materials. The “take or make” decision is primarily based on cost, and making or recycling material on longer space missions can sometimes be less expensive than taking it. Longer missions favor recycling over resupply when the initial cost to provide recycling equipment is less than the cost to provide resupply. Recycling was clearly cheaper than taking material to the space station in the space shuttle era when launch costs were very high. Launch costs have decreased and the take or make decision point has changed. The recent reduction in launch cost by a factor of about twenty-five to fifty makes taking material cost less than making or recycling it for much longer missions. The cost breakeven point when making rather than taking material is less expensive is now much farther out in time than before. Material recycling or in situ production no longer saves cost except for very large or very long missions.

Space manufacturing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Take Material to Space or Make It There?

Most human missions in space have been brief, lasting only days or weeks, and they have taken all the materials they need. Using the alternate method, the International Space Station recycles water and oxygen, and it is often assumed that future Moon and Mars missions should also recycle their life support materials. The “take or make” decision is primarily based on cost, and making or recycling material on longer space missions can sometimes be less expensive than taking it. Longer missions favor recycling over resupply when the initial cost to provide recycling equipment is less than the cost to provide resupply. Recycling was clearly cheaper than taking material to the space station in the space shuttle era when launch costs were very high. Launch costs have decreased and the take or make decision point has changed. The recent reduction in launch cost by a factor of about twenty-five to fifty makes taking material cost less than making or recycling it for much longer missions. The cost breakeven point when making rather than taking material is less expensive is now much farther out in time than before. Material recycling or in situ production no longer saves cost except for very large or very long missions.

Space manufacturing↗

NASA NTRS1977

Fuel cell on-site integrated energy system parametric analysis of a residential complex

The use of phosphoric acid fuel cell powerplant to provide all the electricity required by an 81-unit garden apartment complex is studied. Byproduct heat is recovered and provides some of the heat required by the complex. The onsite integrated energy system contains energy conversion equipment including combinations of compression and absorption chillers, heat pumps, electric resistance heaters, and thermal storage. The annual fuel requirement for several onsite integrated energy systems as well as the fuel cell breakeven cost for one specific system were calculated. It is found that electrical efficiency cannot be traded off against thermal efficiency without paying a penalty in system efficiency.

Simons, S. N.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Integrating Residential Photovoltaics With Power Lines

Report finds rooftop solar-cell arrays feed excess power to electric-utility grid for fee are potentially attractive large-scale application of photovoltaic technology. Presents assessment of breakeven costs of these arrays under variety of technological and economic assumptions.

Borden, C. S.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Thermal power systems small power systems applications project. Volume 2: Detailed report

Small power system technology as applied to power plants up to 10 MW in size was considered. Markets for small power systems were characterized and cost goals were established for the project. Candidate power plant system design concepts were selected for evaluation and preliminary performance and cost assessments were made. Breakeven capital costs were determined for leading contenders among the candidate systems. The potential use of small power systems in providing part of the demand for pumping power by the extensive aqueduct system of California, was studied. Criteria and methodologies were developed for the ranking of candidate power plant system design concepts. Experimental power plant concepts of 1 MW rating were studied to define a power plant configuration for subsequent detail design construction, testing and evaluation. Site selection criteria and ground rules were developed.

Marriott, A. T.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Thermal power systems, small power systems application project. Volume 1: Executive summary

Current small power system technology as applied to power plants up to 10 MWe in size was assessed. Markets for small power systems were characterized and cost goals were established. Candidate power plant system design concepts were selected for evaluation and preliminary performance and cost assessments were made. Economic studies were conducted and breakeven capital costs were determined for leading contenders among the candidate systems. An application study was made of the potential use of small power systems in providing part of the demand for pumping power by the extensive aqueduct system of California, estimated to be 1000 MWe by 1985. Criteria and methodologies were developed for application to the ranking of candidate power plant system design concepts. Experimental power plants concepts of 1 MWe rating were studied leading toward the definition of a power plant configuration for subsequent detail design, construction, testing and evaluation as Engineering Experiment No. 1 (EE No. 1). Site selection criteria and ground rules for the solicitation of EE No. 1 site participation proposals by DOE were developed.

Marriott, A. T.↗

NASA NTRS1982

PV large systems project

Near term photovoltaic central-station markets are analyzed. Cost effectiveness of photovoltaic plants is determined in terms of reduction of oil consumption. The breakeven photovoltaic system cost vs oil-steam power generation is given. The value of photovoltaic power plants in Southern California and in Los Angelos is given in terms of fuel savings and capacity value. The potential value of third party financing, facilitated by Federal and state tax incentives is analyzed.

Leonard, S. L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Hybrid Electric Turboprop Commercial Freighter (HETCOF) Market Study

The dedicated air cargo and freight market has the potential to be a critical early pathway for emerging technologies in low to zero emission propulsion. This study analyzes the cargo aviation market to understand current market trends and future market viability of a mid-sized all-electric or hybrid-electric concept aircraft. While cargo aviation’s overall emissions footprint is small relative to commercial passenger aviation, it remains an important and challenging transportation sector to decarbonize. Past research has focused on small, less than 19-seat electrified aircraft propulsion concepts that could serve both passenger and air cargo markets. This study extends the electrified market space into larger aircraft classes, considering if a purpose-built large hybrid electric turboprop freighter can compete in the market currently served primarily by conversion narrowbody freighters. Specifically, this paper focuses on the mid-sized cargo market with payload ranges of 40,000-50,000lbs, and an all-electric range potential up to 750 miles. The concept aircraft is based on a 4-engine turboprop configuration, with wing mounted battery packs and an aft cargo door to allow for standardized palletization. The market analysis indicates broad market coverage with 73% of the existing mid-sized cargo network within the range of 750 miles. A breakeven analysis of operating and capital costs shows potential for market competition; however, this would require additional energy and acquisition cost savings from the concept aircraft. Evidence from the breakeven analysis also points to higher rates of aircraft utilization being a critical path to lowering costs and increasing cost effectiveness.

Hybrid Electric↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of Life Support Recycling and Resupply

Brief human space missions supply all the crew's water and oxygen from Earth. The multiyear International Space Station (ISS) program instead uses physicochemical life support systems to recycle water and oxygen. This paper compares the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) of recycling to the LCC of resupply for potential future long duration human space missions. Recycling systems have high initial development costs but relatively low durationdependent support costs. This means that recycling is more cost effective for longer missions. Resupplying all the water and oxygen requires little initial development cost but has a much higher launch mass and launch cost. The cost of resupply increases as the mission duration increases. Resupply is therefore more cost effective than recycling for shorter missions. A recycling system pays for itself when the resupply LCC grows greater over time than the recycling LCC. The time when this occurs is called the recycling breakeven date. Recycling will cost very much less than resupply for long duration missions within the Earth-Moon system, such as a future space station or Moon base. But recycling would cost about the same as resupply for long duration deep space missions, such as a Mars trip. Because it is not possible to provide emergency supplies or quick return options on the way to Mars, more expensive redundant recycling systems will be needed.

recycling↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Subsonic Single Aft Engine Narrowbody (SUSAN) Freighter Concept and Market Analysis

The dedicated air cargo and freight market has the potential to be a critical early pathway for emerging technologies in low to zero emission propulsion. This study analyzes the cargo aviation market to understand current market trends and future market viability of a mid-sized all-electric or hybrid-electric concept aircraft. While cargo aviation’s overall emissions footprint is small relative to commercial passenger aviation, it remains an important and challenging transportation sector to decarbonize. Past research has focused on small, less than 19-seat electrified aircraft propulsion concepts that could serve both passenger and air cargo markets This study extends the electrified market space into larger aircraft classes, considering if a purpose-built large hybrid electric turboprop freighter can compete in the market currently served primarily by conversion narrowbody freighters. Specifically, this paper focuses on the mid-sized cargo market with payload ranges of 40,000-50,000lbs, and an all-electric range potential up to 750 miles. The concept aircraft is based on a 4-engine turboprop configuration, with mounted wing battery packs and an aft cargo door to allow for standardized palletization. The market analysis indicates broad market coverage with 73% of the existing mid-sized cargo network within the range of 750 miles. A breakeven analysis of operating and capital costs shows potential for market competition, however, additional energy and acquisition cost savings from the concept aircraft are needed. Evidence from the breakeven analysis also points to higher rates of aircraft utilization being a critical path to lowering costs and increasing cost effectiveness.

Jacob M. Wishart↗

NASA NTRS2023

Market Analysis of the Subsonic Single Aft Engine (SUSAN) Transport Aircraft Concept

This paper presents a detailed market analysis of the U.S. domestic aviation market in support of the NASA subsonic single aft engine (SUSAN) regional aircraft concept. The current scoping of the SUSAN concept is intended to compete in the medium to large (160-180 seats) narrow body market, with range capabilities of up to 2,500 nautical miles, and expected fuel burn reduction up to 40% relative to conventional 2 engine aircraft. Recent historical trends suggest growth in aviation passenger demand will continue to be met by the narrow body fleet of aircraft; however, a comprehensive review is required to understand how these current fleet trends could evolve in the future. Moreover, estimating and forecasting the potential market size is the critical first step when developing a new aircraft concept to determine commercial viability. To assist in the trade space exploration of the SUSAN concept, a generalized traffic and fleet forecast of the U.S. aviation market is conducted. Using publicly available aviation data from the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics and passenger demand forecasts from FAA, a multinomial logit model is estimated to predict the composition of the future fleet by aircraft size. These fleet forecasts are then used as inputs for a fleet evolution model to provide required operational forecasts at the aircraft specific level. Forecast scenarios with and without the SUSAN concept are compared, and a breakeven analysis is performed to evaluate the commercial viability of the SUSAN aircraft from an operating cost perspective. Results from the multinomial logit fleet forecast indicate the narrow body size category of 150+ seats dominating the market, comprising 87% of the future revenue passenger miles market share in 2050 (up from 60% in 2019). Forecast scenarios with the SUSAN concept see a maximum cumulative decline in fuel cost of 20% by 2050, while a breakeven analysis shows competitive advantage of the SUSAN aircraft, due to expected fuel burn reduction, at moderate levels of increased maintenance and capital costs.

Jacob M. Wishart↗

NASA NTRS1978

Assessment of industrial applications for fuel cell cogeneration systems

The fuel cell energy systems are designed with and without a utility connection for emergency back-up power. Sale of electricity to the utility during periods of low plant demand is not considered. For each of the three industrial applications, conceptual designs were also developed for conventional utility systems relying on purchased electric power and fossil-fired boilers for steam/hot water. The capital investment for each energy system is estimated. Annual operating costs are also determined for each system. These cost estimates are converted to levelized annual costs by applying appropriate economic factors. The breakeven electricity price that would make fuel cell systems competitive with the conventional systems is plotted as a function of naphtha price. The sensitivity of the breakeven point to capital investment and coal price is also evaluated.

Stickles, R. P.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Parametric Cost Analysis of Refueling Options in Cislunar Space

Over the next several years NASA intends to develop and maintain a sustained human presence in cislunar space and on the surface of the Moon. The sustained lunar presence will then serve as a steppingstone for human missions to Mars. To propel the spacecraft taking humans and cargo to and from the lunar surface and to and from Mars will require on the order of hundreds of tons of propellant. Single-use refueling elements (expendable tankers) may be more cost-effective for smaller campaigns, but as the propellant demand grows, so does the potential for a cost benefit from reusable tankers. The cost of two different architectures for delivering propellant to cislunar space was estimated and compared. The first architecture relies on expendable tankers for propellant delivery while the second architecture reuses every element, including launch vehicle stages. The study determined that if the cost of reusing refueling tankers is consistent with the current state of the art, the expendable refueling architecture is more cost effective. However, refinements of the methods used to estimate launch and tanker reuse costs are needed to provide more precise estimates of the breakeven point.

Daniel J Tiffin↗

NASA NTRS1983

A comparison of economic evaluation models as applied to geothermal energy technology

Several cost estimation and financial cash flow models have been applied to a series of geothermal case studies. In order to draw conclusions about relative performance and applicability of these models to geothermal projects, the consistency of results was assessed. The model outputs of principal interest in this study were net present value, internal rate of return, or levelized breakeven price. The models used were VENVAL, a venture analysis model; the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPC Model); the Alternative Power Systems Economic Analysis Model (APSEAM); the Geothermal Loan Guarantee Cash Flow Model (GCFM); and the GEOCOST and GEOCITY geothermal models. The case studies to which the models were applied include a geothermal reservoir at Heber, CA; a geothermal eletric power plant to be located at the Heber site; an alcohol fuels production facility to be built at Raft River, ID; and a direct-use, district heating system in Susanville, CA.

Ziman, G. M.↗