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At least 19 records

Validating the galaxy and quasar catalog-level blinding scheme for the DESI 2024 analysis

In the era of precision cosmology, ensuring the integrity of data analysis through blinding techniques is paramount — a challenge particularly relevant for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). DESI represents a monumental effort to map the cosmic web, with the goal to measure the redshifts of tens of millions of galaxies and quasars. Given the data volume and the impact of the findings, the potential for confirmation bias poses a significant challenge. To address this, we implement and validate a comprehensive blind analysis strategy for DESI Data Release 1 (DR1), tailored to the specific observables DESI is most sensitive to: Baryonic Acoustic Oscillations (BAO), Redshift-Space Distortion (RSD) and primordial non-Gaussianities (PNG). We carry out the blinding at the catalog level, implementing shifts in the redshifts of the observed galaxies to blind for BAO and RSD signals and weights to blind for PNG through a scale-dependent bias. We validate the blinding technique on mocks as well as on data by applying a second blinding layer to perform a series of sanity checks; the latter allows probing complexities in real data not captured in mocks. We find that the blinding strategy alters the data vector in a controlled way, and the BAO and RSD analysis choices are robust to blinding. The successful validation of the blinding strategy paves the way for the unblinded DESI DR1 analysis, alongside future blind analyses with DESI and other surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Methods for a blind analysis of isobar data collected by the STAR collaboration

In 2018, the STAR collaboration collected data from $_{44}^{96}{\mathrm{Ru}}+_{44}^{96}{\mathrm{Ru}}$ and $_{40}^{96}{\mathrm{Zr}}+_{40}^{96}{\mathrm{Zr}}$ at $\sqrt{s_\text {NN}}=200$ GeV to search for the presence of the chiral magnetic effect in collisions of nuclei. The isobar collision species alternated frequently between $_{44}^{96}{\mathrm{Ru}}+_{44}^{96}{\mathrm{Ru}}$ and $_{40}^{96}{\mathrm{Zr}}+_{40}^{96}{\mathrm{Zr}}$ . In order to conduct blind analyses of studies related to the chiral magnetic effect in these isobar data, STAR developed a three-step blind analysis procedure. Analysts are initially provided a “reference sample” of data, comprised of a mix of events from the two species, the order of which respects time-dependent changes in run conditions. After tuning analysis codes and performing time-dependent quality assurance on the reference sample, analysts are provided a species-blind sample suitable for calculating efficiencies and corrections for individual $\approx 30$-min data-taking runs. For this sample, species-specific information is disguised, but individual output files contain data from a single isobar species. Only run-by-run corrections and code alteration subsequent to these corrections are allowed at this stage. Following these modifications, the “frozen” code is passed over the fully un-blind data, completing the blind analysis. As a check of the feasibility of the blind analysis procedure, analysts completed a “mock data challenge,” analyzing data from Au + Au collisions at $\sqrt{s_\text {NN}}=27$ GeV, collected in 2018. The Au + Au data were prepared in the same manner intended for the isobar blind data. Finally, the details of the blind analysis procedure and results from the mock data challenge are presented.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Catalog-level blinding on the bispectrum for DESI-like galaxy surveys

We evaluate the performance of the catalog-level blind analysis technique (blinding) presented in Brieden et al. (2020) in the context of a fixed template power spectrum and bispectrum analysis. This blinding scheme, which is tailored for galaxy redshift surveys similar to the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), has two components: the so-called “AP blinding” (concerning the dilation parameters α$_{∥}$, α$_{⊥}$) and “RSD blinding” (redshift space distortions, affecting the growth rate parameter f). Through extensive testing, including checks for the RSD part in cubic boxes, the impact of AP blinding on mocks with realistic survey sky coverage, and the implementation of a full AP+RSD blinding pipeline, our analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of the technique in preserving the integrity of cosmological parameter estimation when the analysis includes the bispectrum statistic. We emphasize the critical role of sophisticated — and difficult to accidentally unblind — blinding methods in precision cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Discovering Blind Geothermal Systems in the Great Basin Region: An Integrated Geologic and Geophysical Approach for Establishing Geothermal Play Fairways: All Phases

Most geothermal resources in the Great Basin region of the western USA are blind, and thus the discovery of new commercial-grade systems requires synthesis of favorable characteristics for geothermal activity. The geothermal play fairway concept involves integration of multiple parameters indicative of geothermal activity to identify promising areas for new development. This project integrated multiple datasets to apply the play fairway concept and assess geothermal potential in a large region of the Great Basin in Nevada. It is therefore referred to as the Nevada play fairway project. This project was a strong collaborative effort between several organizations, led by the Nevada Bureau of Mines and Geology at the University of Nevada, Reno, but with key support from the U.S. Geological Survey, ATLAS Geosciences, Inc,, Hi-Q Geophysical, Inc., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Utah Geological Survey, and Innovative Geothermal Ltd. In Budget Period 1 of this project, available data for nine geologic, geochemical, and geophysical parameters were initially synthesized to produce a new detailed geothermal potential map of 96,000 km2 from west-central to eastern Nevada. These parameters were grouped into subsets and individually weighted to delineate rankings for local permeability, intermediate permeability, regional permeability, and thermal potential, which collectively defined geothermal play fairways (i.e., most likely locations for significant geothermal fluid flow). This initial work was aimed at reducing the risks in regional exploration and therefore facilitating discovery of new commercial-grade systems in blind settings, as well as in areas with surface expressions of geothermal activity. Budget Period 2 of the project involved detailed analysis of some of the most promising areas identified in Phase 1. Twenty-four highly prospective areas, including both known undeveloped systems and previously undiscovered potential blind systems, were identified for further analysis. After reconnaissance of these areas, five of the most promising sites were selected for detailed studies. Multiple techniques were employed in the detailed studies, including geologic mapping, shallow temperature surveys, gravity surveys, Lidar, geochemical studies, seismic reflection analysis, and 3D modeling. The goal of the detailed studies was to identify specific areas with the highest likelihood for high permeability and thermal fluids, such that drill sites could be targeted. Three main sets of predictive maps were generated for each detailed study area: 1) play fairway maps, 2) play fairway error maps, and 3) direct evidence maps. Local- and intermediate-scale permeability models were revised to reflect results of the detailed geologic, geophysical, and geochemical analyses. Budget Period 3 of the project involved more detailed geophysical analyses and temperature-gradient (TG) drilling in southeastern Gabbs Valley and northern Granite Springs Valley, deemed the two most promising sites, with the goal of providing preliminary validation of the play fairway methodology. In southeastern Gabbs Valley, the collocation of a favorable structural setting (displacement transfer zone and fault intersections), Quaternary faults, intersecting and terminating gravity gradients, magnetic low, shallow (2 m) temperature anomaly, low resistivity anomaly, and promising geothermometry from nearby water wells provided evidence for a blind system. Drilling of six TG holes defines an apparent geothermal system at this locality with temperatures as high as 124°C at 152 m. This system is blind, with no surface hot springs, fumaroles, or paleo-geothermal deposits. For northern Granite Springs Valley, a favorable structural setting (termination of a major Quaternary normal fault), terminating gravity gradient, magnetic gradient, newly discovered sinter deposits, nearby warm water wells, previously drilled TG holes in the vicinity, and promising geothermometry suggest a hidden system. Drilling of six new TG holes yields temperatures of ~96°C at ~250 m, suggesting the presence of a geothermal system. Major lessons learned in the course of this project include: 1) initially identified sites commonly include multiple favorable structural settings at a finer scale; 2) promising sites in Cenozoic basins cannot be recognized without detailed geophysical surveys; and 3) play fairway analysis should be refined as the exploration program vectors into the most promising sites and finer-scale data are acquired. In addition to producing copious amounts of data, this project resulted in 16 published papers, 10 abstracts, more than 40 presentations across the U.S. and abroad (including several keynote addresses), 2 Masters theses, and 7 media reports.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Blinding scheme for the scale-dependence bias signature of local primordial non-Gaussianity for DESI 2024

The next generation of spectroscopic surveys is expected to achieve an unprecedented level of accuracy in the measurement of cosmological parameters. To avoid confirmation bias and thereby improve the reliability of these results, blinding procedures become a standard practice in the cosmological analyses of such surveys. Blinding is especially crucial when the impact of observational systematics is important relative to the cosmological signal, and a detection of that signal would have significant implications. This is the case for local primordial non-gaussianity, as probed by the scale-dependent bias of the galaxy power spectrum at large scales that are heavily sensitive to the dependence of the target selection on the imaging quality, known as imaging systematics. We propose a blinding method for the scale-dependent bias signature of local primordial non-gaussianity at the density field level which consists in generating a set of weights for the data that replicate the scale-dependent bias. The applied blinding is predictable, and can be straightforwardly combined with other catalog-level blinding procedures that have been designed for the baryon acoustic oscillation and redshift space distortion signals. The procedure is validated through simulations that replicate data from the first year of observation of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument, but may find applications to other upcoming spectroscopic surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Development of a Full-Scale Connected U-Net for Reflectivity Inpainting in Spaceborne Radar Blind Zones

CloudSat’s Cloud Profiling Radar is a valuable tool for remotely monitoring high-latitude snowfall, but its ability to observe hydrometeor activity near the Earth’s surface is limited by a radar blind zone caused by ground clutter contamination. This study presents the development of a deeply supervised U-Net-style convolutional neural network to predict cold season reflectivity profiles within the blind zone at two Arctic locations. The network learns to predict the presence and intensity of near-surface hydrometeors by coupling latent features encoded in blind zone-aloft clouds with additional context from collocated atmospheric state variables (i.e., temperature, specific humidity, and wind speed). Results show that the U-Net predictions outperform traditional linear extrapolation methods, with low mean absolute error, a 38% higher Sørensen–Dice coefficient, and vertical reflectivity distributions 60% closer to observed values. The U-Net is also able to detect the presence of near-surface cloud with a critical success index (CSI) of 72% and cases of shallow cumuliform snowfall and virga with 18% higher CSI values compared to linear methods. An explainability analysis shows that reflectivity information throughout the scene, especially at cloud edges and at the 1.2-km blind zone threshold, along with atmospheric state variables near the tropopause, are the most significant contributors to model skill. This surface-trained generative inpainting technique has the potential to enhance current and future remote sensing precipitation missions by providing a better understanding of the nonlinear relationship between blind zone reflectivity values and the surrounding atmospheric state.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Smokescreen: A Python package for data vector blinding and encryption in cosmological analyses

Smokescreen is an open-source Python library for data-vector concealment (blinding) in cosmological analyses. Data-vector blinding works by applying cosmology-dependent shifts to the observed data vector, moving it away from the true cosmological signal without affecting its statistical properties, so that analysts cannot infer the true result until the analysis is frozen and the blinding is lifted. The package computes these shifts using Firecrown likelihoods applied to data vectors stored in the SACC format, ensuring that the theoretical model used for blinding is identical to that used for inference whilst remaining agnostic to the specific observable being blinded. To prevent accidental unblinding, the original SACC file, containing the true cosmology, is encrypted. Although developed for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), Smokescreen is applicable to any experiment using Firecrown likelihoods and the SACC data format.

Loureiro, Arthur [Stockholm U., OKC; Imperial Coll↗

Tidal Turbine Benchmarking Project: Stage I - Steady Flow Blind Predictions: Preprint

This paper presents the first blind prediction stage of the Tidal Turbine Benchmarking Project being conducted and funded by the UK's EPSRC and Supergen ORE Hub. In this first stage, only steady flow conditions, at low and elevated turbulence (3.1%) levels, were considered. Prior to the blind prediction stage, a large laboratory scale experiment was conducted in which a highly instrumented 1.6m diameter tidal rotor was towed through a large towing tank in well-defined flow conditions with and without an upstream turbulence grid. Details of the test campaign and rotor design were released as part of this community blind prediction exercise. Participants were invited to use a range of engineering modelling approaches to simulate the performance and loads of the turbine. 26 submissions were received from 12 groups from across academia and industry using solution techniques ranging from blade resolved computational fluid dynamics through actuator line, boundary integral element methods, vortex methods to engineering Blade Element Momentum methods. The comparisons between experiments and blind predictions were extremely positive helping to provide validation and uncertainty estimates for the models, but also validating the experimental tests themselves. The exercise demonstrated that the experimental turbine data provides a robust data set against which researchers and design engineers can test their models and implementations to ensure robustness in their processes, helping to reduce uncertainty and provide increased confidence in engineering processes. Furthermore, the data set provides the basis by which modellers can evaluate and refine approaches.

benchmarking↗

Alcock-Paczynski Blinding Scheme for the Ly-$α$ Forest Analysis

We present and validate a blinding method for the Lyman-$α$ (Ly$α$) forest analysis based on a modification of the Alcock-Paczynski test. In order to hide the background expansion history, the method employs a geometrical shift of each quasar (QSO) forest in wavelength space, once the quasar continuum has been fitted and the fluctuation field is extracted. The redshift positions for the QSO sample are also changed in a consistent manner. We show that the method remains effective when applied to real data, where contamination from metals and Lyman-$β$ is intrinsically mixed with the Lyman-$α$ forest. This limitation is primarily visible in the 1D correlation function, where other blinding strategies can mitigate the effect. To assess its effectiveness, the prescription is tested against a series of datasets of increasing complexity: from idealized low-noise mocks, to realistic DESI year one synthetic datasets, and finally to data from DESI first data release (DR1), using both the auto (Ly$α\times$Ly$α$) and cross (Ly$α\times$ QSO) correlations. We find that the method robustly shifts the BAO peak position from the 3D correlation functions to the expected value for cosmology changes of around 5% in the matter content, without altering the shape of the posteriors in the model parameters. In conclusion, this catalog-level blinding strategy is a viable method for cosmological inference with the Lyman-$α$ forest, particularly if a cross-analysis with other tracers using the same blinding strategy is pursued.

Perez-Sanchez, G. [Guanajuato U.] (ORCID:000900096↗

Blind photovoltaic modeling intercomparison: A multidimensional data analysis and lessons learned

The Photovoltaic (PV) Performance Modeling Collaborative (PVPMC) organized a blind PV performance modeling intercomparison to allow PV modelers to blindly test their models and modeling ability against real system data. Measured weather and irradiance data were provided along with detailed descriptions of PV systems from two locations (Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA, and Roskilde, Denmark). Participants were asked to simulate the plane-of-array irradiance, module temperature, and DC power output from six systems and submit their results to Sandia for processing. The results showed overall median mean bias (i.e., the average error per participant) of 0.6% in annual irradiation and –3.3% in annual energy yield. While most PV performance modeling results seem to exhibit higher precision and accuracy as compared to an earlier blind PV modeling study in 2010, human errors, modeling skills, and derates were found to still cause significant errors in the estimates.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Feature review of photovoltaic modeling software utilizing blind performance assessment

While confidence in photovoltaic (PV) modeling software has always been essential, the rapid pace of new PV plant developments makes accuracy and credibility more critical than ever. Independent assessments, particularly through blind modeling comparisons, are therefore necessary to ensure unbiased benchmarking across PV modeling software. Previous studies have been limited by a narrow range of models compared, anonymized results, or system size. This study presents results from the first-ever onymous blind modeling comparison, evaluated using both lab- and utility-scale fixed-tilt, monofacial, south-facing systems at sub-hourly time intervals. Seven commercially used PV software tools were compared: 3E SynaptiQ, PlantPredict, PVsyst, RatedPower, SAM, SolarFarmer, and Solargis Evaluate. Predictions were submitted directly by software representatives, providing unique insights into each software’s implementation and resulting prediction behavior. Notable features, including plane-of-array (POA) transposition model, module temperature model, shading model, and performance model were analyzed and compared. Four summary tables compile these features of the software, serving as a resource to help users understand the methodological differences and select the most suitable software for their applications. The software tools show deviations from mean error in annual yield up to 2.5 % in the lab-scale system, increasing to 6.0 % for the utility-scale system. These differences arise from a combination of user decisions and the inherent behavior of the software, indicating the need for continuous and rigorous validation of modeling methods using these software tools against complex, real-world systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Blind QC trend presentation

Blind testing is used to evaluate performance of the radiobioassay laboratory. DOE-STD-1112-2019 requires a radiobioassay program to perform blind testing at a documented frequency including accuracy, false positive, false negative, and sensitivity evaluations. INL trends accuracy determinations over time for bias, agreement, and precision. Trends have been identified for certain isotopes in urine and feces that have not been fully explained. This presentation will review those identified trends and discuss possible causes and solutions.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Rationally Engineered Vertically Aligned β ‐Ga 2− x W x O 3 Nanocomposites for Self‐Biased Solar‐Blind Ultraviolet Photodetectors with Ultrafast Response

Abstract With the astonishing advancement of present technology and increasing energy consumption, there is an ever‐increasing demand for energy‐efficient multifunctional sensors or transducers based on low‐cost, eco‐friendly material systems. In this context, self‐assembled vertically aligned β ‐Ga 2− x W x O 3 nanocomposite (GWO‐VAN) architecture‐assisted self‐biased solar‐blind UV photodetection on a silicon platform, which is the heart of traditional electronics is presented. Utilizing precisely controlled growth parameters, the formation of W‐enriched vertical β ‐Ga 2− x W x O 3 nanocolumns embedded into the W‐deficient β ‐Ga 2− x W x O 3 matrix is reached. Detailed structural and morphological analyses evidently confirm the presence of β ‐Ga 2− x W x O 3 nanocomposite with a high structural and chemical quality. Furthermore, absorption and photoluminescence spectroscopy explains photo‐absorption dynamics and the recombination through possible donor–acceptor energy states. The proposed GWO‐VAN framework facilitates evenly dispersed nanoregions with asymmetric donor energy state distribution and thus forms build‐in potential at the vertical β ‐Ga 2− x W x O 3 interfaces. As a result, the overall heterostructure evinces photovoltaic nature under the UV irradiation. A responsivity of ≈30 A/W is observed with an ultrafast response time (≈350 µs) under transient triggering conditions. Corresponding detectivity and external quantum efficiency are 7.9 × 10 12 Jones and 1.4 × 10 4 %, respectively. It is believed that, while this is the first report exploiting GWO‐VAN architecture to manifest self‐biased solar‐blind UV photodetection, the implication of the approach is enormous in designing electronics for extreme environment functionality and has immense potential to demonstrate drastic improvement in low‐cost UV photodetector technology.

Das, Debabrata↗

Enhanced UV–Vis Rejection Ratio in Metal/BaTiO 3 /β–Ga 2 O 3 Solar–Blind Photodetectors

The fabrication and characterization of metal/BaTiO 3 /β-Ga 2 O 3 solar-blind photodetectors are reported. β-Ga 2 O 3 is a promising material for solar-blind photodetectors due to its large bandgap and the availability of low defect-density melt-grown substrates. In this work, structures are introduced that employ high-permittivity dielectric/semiconductor heterojunctions to enhance the performance of a Schottky photodetector. It is shown that integrating the high-k dielectric BaTiO 3 reduces the dark current by ≈10 4 , all but eliminates illumination induced Schottky barrier lowering, and increases the UV–vis rejection ratio by a factor greater than 9 × 10 3 compared to a Schottky photodetector. It is hypothesized that the high permittivity of the dielectric overcomes the influence of self-trapped holes in Ga 2 O 3 to reduce the peak electric field at the dielectric/metal interface, thereby eliminating the effects of Schottky barrier lowering on illuminated β-Ga 2 O 3 photodetectors. Additionally, it is hypothesized that the increase in the UV–vis rejection ratio is caused by the “dead layer” that forms at the BaTiO 3 /Pt interface.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

In-flight polarization angle calibration for LiteBIRD: blind challenge and cosmological implications

We present a demonstration of the in-flight polarization angle calibration for the JAXA/ISAS second strategic large class mission, LiteBIRD, and estimate its impact on the measurement of the tensor-to-scalar ratio parameter, r, using simulated data. We generate a set of simulated sky maps with CMB and polarized foreground emission, and inject instrumental noise and polarization angle offsets to the 22 (partially overlapping) LiteBIRD frequency channels. Our in-flight angle calibration relies on nulling the EB cross correlation of the polarized signal in each channel. This calibration step has been carried out by two independent groups with a blind analysis, allowing an accuracy of the order of a few arc-minutes to be reached on the estimate of the angle offsets. Both the corrected and uncorrected multi-frequency maps are propagated through the foreground cleaning step, with the goal of computing clean CMB maps. We employ two component separation algorithms, the Bayesian-Separation of Components and Residuals Estimate Tool (B-SeCRET), and the Needlet Internal Linear Combination (NILC). We find that the recovered CMB maps obtained with algorithms that do not make any assumptions about the foreground properties, such as NILC, are only mildly affected by the angle miscalibration. However, polarization angle offsets strongly bias results obtained with the parametric fitting method. Once the miscalibration angles are corrected by EB nulling prior to the component separation, both component separation algorithms result in an unbiased estimation of the r parameter. While this work is motivated by the conceptual design study for LiteBIRD, its framework can be broadly applied to any CMB polarization experiment. In particular, the combination of simulation plus blind analysis provides a robust forecast by taking into account not only detector sensitivity but also systematic effects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Optimization of foreground moment deprojection for semi-blind CMB polarization reconstruction

Abstract Upcoming Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) experiments, aimed at measuring primordial CMB polarization B-modes, require exquisite control of instrumental systematics and Galactic foreground contamination. Blind minimum-variance techniques, like the Needlet Internal Linear Combination (NILC), have proven effective in reconstructing the CMB polarization signal and mitigating foregrounds and systematics across diverse sky models without suffering from foreground mismodelling errors. Still, residual foreground contamination from NILC may bias the recovered CMB polarization at large angular scales when confronted with the most complex foreground scenarios.By adding constraints to NILC to deproject statistical moments of the Galactic emission, the Constrained Moment ILC (cMILC) method has been demonstrated to further enhance foreground subtraction, albeit with an associated increase in overall noise variance. Faced with this trade-off between foreground bias reduction and overall variance minimization, there is still no recipe on which moments to deproject and which are better suited for blind variance minimization. To address this, we introduce the optimized cMILC (ocMILC) pipeline, which performs full automated optimization of the required number and set of foreground moments to deproject, pivot parameter values, and deprojection coefficients across the sky and angular scales, depending on the actual sky complexity, available frequency coverage, and experiment sensitivity. The optimal number of moments for deprojection, before paying significant noise penalty, is determined through a data diagnosis inspired by the Generalized NILC (GNILC) method.Validated on B-mode simulations of thePICOspace mission concept with four challenging foreground models, ocMILC exhibits lower Galactic foreground contamination compared to NILC and cMILC at all angular scales, with limited noise penalty. This multi-layer optimization enables the ocMILC pipeline to achieve unbiased posteriors of the tensor-to-scalar ratio, regardless of foreground complexity.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗