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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Fiber Uncertainty Visualization for Bivariate Data With Parametric and Nonparametric Noise Models

Visualization and analysis of multivariate data and their uncertainty are top research challenges in data visualization. Constructing fiber surfaces is a popular technique for multivariate data visualization that generalizes the idea of level-set visualization for univariate data to multivariate data. Here, in this paper, we present a statistical framework to quantify positional probabilities of fibers extracted from uncertain bivariate fields. Specifically, we extend the state-of-the-art Gaussian models of uncertainty for bivariate data to other parametric distributions (e.g., uniform and Epanechnikov) and more general nonparametric probability distributions (e.g., histograms and kernel density estimation) and derive corresponding spatial probabilities of fibers. In our proposed framework, we leverage Green's theorem for closed-form computation of fiber probabilities when bivariate data are assumed to have independent parametric and nonparametric noise. Additionally, we present a nonparametric approach combined with numerical integration to study the positional probability of fibers when bivariate data are assumed to have correlated noise. For uncertainty analysis, we visualize the derived probability volumes for fibers via volume rendering and extracting level sets based on probability thresholds. We present the utility of our proposed techniques via experiments on synthetic and simulation datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

An Analysis of the Johnson-Lindenstrauss Lemma with the Bivariate Gamma Distribution

Probabilistic proofs of the Johnson-Lindenstrauss lemma imply that random projection can reduce the dimension of a data set and approximately preserve pairwise distances. If a distance being approximately preserved is called a success, and the complement of this event is called a failure, then such a random projection likely results in no failures. Assuming a Gaussian random projection, the lemma is proved by showing that the no-failure probability is positive using a combination of Bonferroni's inequality and Markov's inequality. This paper modifies this proof in two ways to obtain a greater lower bound on the no-failure probability. First, Bonferroni's inequality is applied to pairs of failures instead of individual failures. Second, since a pair of projection errors has a bivariate gamma distribution, this probability of a pair of successes is bounded using an inequality from [Jensen, 1969]. If n is the number of points to be embedded and μ is the probability of success, then this leads to an increase in the lower bound on the no-failure probability of $\frac{1}{2}$ ($\genfrac{}{}{0pt}{}{n}{2}$) (1- μ ) 2 is ($\genfrac{}{}{0pt}{}{n}{2}$) is even and $\frac{1}{2}$ (($\genfrac{}{}{0pt}{}{n}{2}$)-1) (1- μ ) 2 if ($\genfrac{}{}{0pt}{}{n}{2}$) is odd. For example, if n =10 5 points are to be embedded in k =10 4 dimensions with a tolerance of ϵ=0.1, then the improvement in the lower bound is on the order of 10 -14 . We also show that further improvement is possible if the inequality in [Jensen, 1969] extends to three successes, though we do not have a proof of this result.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Discrimination of Seismic Events (2006–2020) in North Korea Using P/Lg Amplitude Ratios from Regional Stations and a Bivariate Discriminant Function

Two events of magnitude (m b ) 3.6–3.8 occurred in southern North Korea (NK) on 27 June 2019 and 11 May 2020. Although these events were located ~330–400 km from the known nuclear test site, the fact that they occurred within the territory of NK, a country with a recent history of underground nuclear tests, made them events of interest for the monitoring community. In this work, we used P/Lg ratios from regional stations to categorize seismic events that occurred in NK from 2006 to May 2020, including these two recent events, the six declared NK nuclear tests, and the cavity collapse and triggered earthquakes that followed the 3 September 2017 nuclear explosion. We were able to separate the cavity collapse from the population of nuclear explosions. However, based on P/Lg ratios, the distinction between the earthquakes and the cavity collapse is ambiguous. The performed discriminant analyses suggest that combining Pg/Lg and Pn/Lg ratios results in improved discriminant power compared with any of the ratio types alone. We used the two ratio types jointly in a quadratic discriminant function and successfully classified the six declared nuclear tests and the triggered earthquakes that followed the September 2017 explosion. Our analyses also confirm that the recent southern events of June 2019 and May 2020 are both tectonic earthquakes that occurred naturally.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Extreme Wave Conditions for Wave Energy Converter Design and Project Risk Assessment

Best practices and international standards for determining n-year return period extreme wave (sea states) conditions allow wave energy converter designers and project developers the option to apply simple univariate or more complex bivariate extreme value analysis methods. The present study compares extreme sea state estimates derived from univariate and bivariate methods and investigates the performance of spectral wave models for predicting extreme sea states at buoy locations within several regional wave climates along the US East and West Coasts. Two common third-generation spectral wave models are evaluated, a WAVEWATCH III® model with a grid resolution of 4 arc-minutes (6–7 km), and a Simulating WAves Nearshore model, with a coastal resolution of 200–300 m. Both models are used to generate multi-year hindcasts, from which extreme sea state statistics used for wave conditions characterization can be derived and compared to those based on in-situ observations at National Data Buoy Center stations. Comparison of results using different univariate and bivariate methods from the same data source indicates reasonable agreement on average. Discrepancies are predominantly random. Large discrepancies are common and increase with return period. There is a systematic underbias for extreme significant wave heights derived from model hindcasts compared to those derived from buoy measurements. This underbias is dependent on model spatial resolution. However, simple linear corrections can effectively compensate for this bias. A similar approach is not possible for correcting model-derived environmental contours, but other methods, e.g., machine learning, should be explored.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic Simulation of Daily Suspended Sediment Concentration Using Multivariate Copulas

Estimation of daily suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is required for water resources and environment management. In this paper, a copula-based stochastic method was proposed for daily SSC simulation. Here, the multivariate copula function, constructed based on a bivariate copula and two bivariate conditional probability distributions, was used to model the temporal and cross dependence structures in daily SSCs. Then, the daily SSCs were generated by sampling from the multivariate conditional distribution. As a result, synthetic long-term SSCs data beyond the limited observation period can be provided for water resources managers, which plays a critical role in accurately estimating frequency and magnitude of extreme SSCs events. The proposed method was under rigorous examination by applying to a case study at Pingshan station in the Jinsha River Basin, China. Results showed that the generated daily SSC sequences not only had a high degree of accuracy in preserving the statistical characteristics of the daily SSC observations, but also captured both the temporal correlation and the cross-correlation between the daily streamflow and daily SSC. Specifically, the average daily relative error values corresponding to mean, standard deviation, skewness, lag-1 temporal correlation, and cross correlation were 0.87%, 4.24%, 7.52%, 0.51% and 2.02%, respectively. The multivariate copula framework proposed here can accurately and efficiently generate long-term daily SSC data for water resources management such as frequency analysis and risk assessment of extreme SSC events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Aircraft Observations of Turbulence in Cloudy and Cloud-Free Boundary Layers Over the Western North Atlantic Ocean From ACTIVATE and Implications for the Earth System Model Evaluation and Development

This study examines boundary layer turbulence derived from high temporal resolution meteorological measurements from 40 research flights over the western North Atlantic Ocean during the 2020 deployments of ACTIVATE. Frequency distributions of various turbulent quantities reveal stronger turbulence during the winter deployment than in summer and for cloud‐topped than in cloud‐free boundary layers during the summer deployment. Maximum turbulence kinetic energy (TKE) is most often within cloud from observations in winter and summer, whereas it is mostly below cloud in both seasons by a global model turbulence parameterization. Further, bivariate frequency distributions are consistent with the bivariate Gaussian probability distribution functions assumed for the closure of higher‐order turbulence/shallow convection parameterizations used by some global models. Turbulence simulated by the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model Atmosphere Model version 2 using such parameterizations is not as strong as observed, with more TKE going into vertical wind perturbations rather than into zonal wind perturbations as observed, suggesting that the treatment of turbulence in Earth system models still needs to be further improved.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

InClass nets: independent classifier networks for nonparametric estimation of conditional independence mixture models and unsupervised classification

Abstract Conditional independence mixture models (CIMMs) are an important class of statistical models used in many fields of science. We introduce a novel unsupervised machine learning technique called the independent classifier networks (InClass nets) technique for the nonparameteric estimation of CIMMs. InClass nets consist of multiple independent classifier neural networks (NNs), which are trained simultaneously using suitable cost functions. Leveraging the ability of NNs to handle high-dimensional data, the conditionally independent variates of the model are allowed to be individually high-dimensional, which is the main advantage of the proposed technique over existing non-machine-learning-based approaches. Two new theorems on the nonparametric identifiability of bivariate CIMMs are derived in the form of a necessary and a (different) sufficient condition for a bivariate CIMM to be identifiable. We use the InClass nets technique to perform CIMM estimation successfully for several examples. We provide a public implementation as a Python package called RainDancesVI.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian mixture model approach to quantifying the empirical nuclear saturation point

The equation of state (EOS) in the limit of infinite symmetric nuclear matter exhibits an equilibrium density, $n_0 \approx 0.16 \, \mathrm{fm}^{-3}$, at which the pressure vanishes and the energy per particle attains its minimum, $E_0 \approx -16 \, \mathrm{MeV}$. Although not directly measurable, the nuclear saturation point $(n_0,E_0)$ can be extrapolated by density functional theory (DFT), providing tight constraints for microscopic interactions derived from chiral effective field theory (EFT). However, when considering several DFT predictions for $(n_0,E_0)$ from Skyrme and Relativistic Mean Field (RMF) models together, a discrepancy between these model classes emerges at high confidence levels that each model prediction's uncertainty cannot explain. How can we leverage these DFT constraints to rigorously benchmark nuclear saturation properties of chiral interactions? To address this question, we present a Bayesian mixture model that combines multiple DFT predictions for $(n_0,E_0)$ using an efficient conjugate prior approach. The inferred posterior distribution for the saturation point's mean and covariance matrix follows a Normal-inverse-Wishart class, resulting in posterior predictives in the form of correlated, bivariate $t$-distributions. The DFT uncertainty reports are then used to mix these posteriors using an ordinary Monte Carlo approach. At the 95\% credibility level, we estimate $n_0 \approx 0.157 \pm 0.010 \, \mathrm{fm}^{-3}$ and $E_0 \approx -15.97 \pm 0.40 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ for the marginal (univariate) $t$-distributions. Combined with chiral EFT calculations of the pure neutron matter EOS, we obtain bivariate normal distributions for the nuclear symmetry energy and its slope parameter evaluated at $n_0$: $S_v \approx 32.0 \pm 1.1 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ and $L\approx 52.6\pm 8.1 \, \mathrm{MeV}$ (95\%), respectively. Furthermore, our Bayesian framework is publicly available, so practitioners can readily use and extend our results.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward a 2D Local Implementation of Quantum Low-Density Parity-Check Codes

Geometric locality is an important theoretical and practical factor for quantum low-density parity-check (qLDPC) codes that affects code performance and ease of physical realization. For device architectures restricted to two-dimensional (2D) local gates, naively implementing the high-rate codes suitable for low-overhead fault-tolerant quantum computing incurs prohibitive overhead. In this work, we present an error-correction protocol built on a bilayer architecture that aims to reduce operational overheads when restricted to 2D local gates by measuring some generators less frequently than others. We investigate the family of bivariate-bicycle qLDPC codes and show that they are well suited for a parallel syndrome-measurement scheme using fast routing with local operations and classical communication (LOCC). Through circuit-level simulations, we find that in some parameter regimes, bivariate-bicycle codes implemented with this protocol have logical error rates comparable to the surface code while using fewer physical qubits. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Berthusen, Noah (ORCID:0000000275862786)↗
DOE OSTI2024

FunM2C: A Filter for Uncertainty Visualization of Multivariate Data on Multi-Core Devices

Uncertainty visualization is an emerging research topic in data visualization because neglecting uncertainty in visualization can lead to inaccurate assessments. In this paper, we study the propagation of multivariate data uncertainty in visualization. Although there have been a few advancements in probabilistic uncertainty visualization of multivariate data, three critical challenges remain to be addressed. First, the state-of-the-art probabilistic uncertainty visualization framework is limited to bivariate data (two variables). Second, existing uncertainty visualization algorithms use computationally intensive techniques and lack support for cross-platform portability. Third, as a consequence of the computational expense, integration into production visualization tools is impractical. In this work, we address all three issues and make a threefold contribution. First, we take a step to generalize the state-of-the-art probabilistic framework for bivariate data to multivariate data with an arbitrary number of variables. Second, through utilization of VTK-m’s shared-memory parallelism and cross-platform compatibility features, we demonstrate acceleration of multivariate uncertainty visualization on different many-core architectures, including OpenMP and AMD GPUs. Third, we demonstrate the integration of our algorithms with the ParaView software. We demonstrate the utility of our algorithms through experiments on multivariate simulation data with three and four variables.

Hari, Gautam↗
DOE OSTI2021

How Snow Aggregate Ellipsoid Shape and Orientation Variability Affects Fall Speed and Self-Aggregation Rates

Snow aggregate shapes and orientations have long been known to exhibit substantial variability. Despite this observed variability, most weather and climate prediction models use fixed power-law functions that deterministically map particle size to mass and fall speed. As such, integrated quantities like precipitation and self-aggregation rates currently ignore nonlinear effects resulting from variation in shape and orientation for aggregates of the same size. This study therefore develops an analytic framework that couples an empirically based bivariate distribution of ellipsoid shapes to classical hydrodynamic theory so as to capture an appropriate dispersion of masses, projected areas, and fall speeds for an assumed size distribution. For a fixed aggregate size, shape variations produce approximately ±0.13 m s -1 standard deviation of fall speed which increases the mass flux fall speed dispersion by more than 100% over traditional microphysics models. This increased fall speed dispersion results predominantly from shape-induced mass dispersion whereas orientation and drag dispersion play a lesser role. Shape variations can increase mass- and reflectivity-weighted fall speeds by up to 60% of traditional models whereas self-aggregation rates can increase by a factor of 100 for very small slope parameters. This implies that aggregate shape variations effectively forestall the theorized onset of fall speed distribution narrowing and subsequent quenching of the aggregation process. As a result, it is likely that secondary ice formation is necessary to prevent an ever decreasing slope parameter. The mathematical theory presented in this study is used to develop simple correction factors for snow forecast and climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessment of Demographic, Genetic, and Imaging Variables Associated With Brain Resilience and Cognitive Resilience to Pathological Tau in Patients With Alzheimer Disease

Importance: Better understanding is needed of the degree to which individuals tolerate Alzheimer disease (AD)-like pathological tau with respect to brain structure (brain resilience) and cognition (cognitive resilience). Objective: To examine the demographic (age, sex, and educational level), genetic (APOE-ε4 status), and neuroimaging (white matter hyperintensities and cortical thickness) factors associated with interindividual differences in brain and cognitive resilience to tau positron emission tomography (PET) load and to changes in global cognition over time. Design, setting, an participants: In this cross-sectional, longitudinal study, tau PET was performed from June 1, 2014, to November 30, 2017, and global cognition monitored for a mean [SD] interval of 2.0 [1.8] years at 3 dementia centers in South Korea, Sweden, and the United States. The study included amyloid-β-positive participants with mild cognitive impairment or AD dementia. Data analysis was performed from October 26, 2018, to December 11, 2019. Exposures: Standard dementia screening, cognitive testing, brain magnetic resonance imaging, amyloid-β PET and cerebrospinal fluid analysis, and flortaucipir (tau) labeled with fluor-18 (18F) PET. Main outcomes and measures: Separate linear regression models were performed between whole cortex [18F]flortaucipir uptake and cortical thickness, and standardized residuals were used to obtain a measure of brain resilience. The same procedure was performed for whole cortex [18F]flortaucipir uptake vs Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) as a measure of cognitive resilience. Bivariate and multivariable linear regression models were conducted with age, sex, educational level, APOE-ε4 status, white matter hyperintensity volumes, and cortical thickness as independent variables and brain and cognitive resilience measures as dependent variables. Linear mixed models were performed to examine whether changes in MMSE scores over time differed as a function of a combined brain and cognitive resilience variable. Results: A total of 260 participants (145 [55.8%] female; mean [SD] age, 69.2 [9.5] years; mean [SD] MMSE score, 21.9 [5.5]) were included in the study. In multivariable models, women (standardized β = -0.15, P = .02) and young patients (standardized β = -0.20, P = .006) had greater brain resilience to pathological tau. Higher educational level (standardized β = 0.23, P < .001) and global cortical thickness (standardized β = 0.23, P < .001) were associated with greater cognitive resilience to pathological tau. Linear mixed models indicated a significant interaction of brain resilience × cognitive resilience × time on MMSE (β [SE] = -0.235 [0.111], P = .03), with steepest slopes for individuals with both low brain and cognitive resilience. Conclusions and relevance: Results of this study suggest that women and young patients with AD have relative preservation of brain structure when exposed to neocortical pathological tau. Interindividual differences in resilience to pathological tau may be important to disease progression because participants with both low brain and cognitive resilience had the most rapid cognitive decline over time.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The impact of demographic, clinical, genetic, and imaging variables on tau PET status

Purpose: A substantial proportion of amyloid-β (Aβ)+ patients with clinically diagnosed Alzheimer’s disease (AD) dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) are tau PET–negative, while some clinically diagnosed non-AD neurodegenerative disorder (non-AD) patients or cognitively unimpaired (CU) subjects are tau PET–positive. We investigated which demographic, clinical, genetic, and imaging variables contributed to tau PET status. Methods: We included 2338 participants (430 Aβ+ AD dementia, 381 Aβ+ MCI, 370 non-AD, and 1157 CU) who underwent [ 18 F]flortaucipir ( n = 1944) or [ 18 F]RO948 ( n = 719) PET. Tau PET positivity was determined in the entorhinal cortex, temporal meta-ROI, and Braak V-VI regions using previously established cutoffs. We performed bivariate binary logistic regression models with tau PET status (positive/negative) as dependent variable and age, sex, APOE ε4, Aβ status (only in CU and non-AD analyses), MMSE, global white matter hyperintensities (WMH), and AD-signature cortical thickness as predictors. Additionally, we performed multivariable binary logistic regression models to account for all other predictors in the same model. Results: Tau PET positivity in the temporal meta-ROI was 88.6% for AD dementia, 46.5% for MCI, 9.5% for non-AD, and 6.1% for CU. Among Aβ+ participants with AD dementia and MCI, lower age, MMSE score, and AD-signature cortical thickness showed the strongest associations with tau PET positivity. In non-AD and CU participants, presence of Aβ was the strongest predictor of a positive tau PET scan. Conclusion: We identified several demographic, clinical, and neurobiological factors that are important to explain the variance in tau PET retention observed across the AD pathological continuum, non-AD neurodegenerative disorders, and cognitively unimpaired persons.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying fission gas adsorption onto natural clinoptilolite in the presence of environmental air and water

Adsorption of noble gas fission products onto naturally occurring minerals is of interest for its potential to retain or retard emissions from nuclear fuel reprocessing operations or underground nuclear explosions. However, experimental studies of trace noble gas adsorption in the presence of air and water have largely focused on synthetic materials, such as activated carbon or metal-organic frameworks. Here, in this study, adsorption of Kr and Xe onto the naturally occurring zeolitic mineral clinoptilolite is studied in the presence of nitrogen and water. By varying the composition of the gas phase and monitoring the change in the combined adsorbate mass, the adsorbed concentration of noble gas is calculated gravimetrically. For dry clinoptilolite, the concentration of adsorbed Kr and Xe is linearly correlated with noble gas pressure and Henry's Law appears satisfactory, despite the presence of nitrogen at atmospheric pressures. However, the presence of water significantly reduces the adsorbed concentration of both Kr and Xe, which is typical in nanoporous sorbents. Here, an empirical bivariate model is presented, combining the Henry's Law adsorption model for a dry adsorbent with the exponential reduction in the presence of water, as reported by Lungu and Underhill in 1999. This model provides a means to estimate the adsorbate concentration at the trace partial pressures and higher water contents relevant to field-scale modeling of fission gas transport through the vadose zone.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2022

A framework for feasibility-level validation of high-resolution wave hindcast models

The value of long-term wave hindcasts for investigating wave climates, wave energy resources, and extreme wave conditions has motivated research developing, calibrating and validating wave hindcast models. Past hindcast model validation studies examined the accuracy in modeling bulk wave parameters of overall sea states without considering the dependency of the model's skill within different sea states. In the present study, a framework for wave hindcast model validation is developed by examining the model accuracy for the most frequently occurring sea states, sea states contributing the most energy to total wave power, sea states associated with hurricane events, and those with the largest model error. Here, validations using bulk wave parameters and frequency-directional spectra at these key sea states and extreme wave conditions based on univariate and bivariate-contour methods provide insights to improve model accuracy, identifying the model's strong and weak points, and pathways for improvement, e.g., modeling wave-current interactions and adjusting wind data. This study adds to a growing body of research demonstrating that a carefully calibrated and verified spectral wave hindcast model can be used to estimate key wave energy parameters over a wide range of wave energy climates, as well as their spatial, temporal, frequency, directional, and probabilistic distributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗