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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Direct numerical simulations of three-component Rayleigh–Taylor mixing and an improved model for multicomponent reacting mixtures

We present direct numerical simulations of a three-layer Rayleigh–Taylor instability (RTI) problem with a configuration based on the experiments of Suchandra & Ranjan ( J. Fluid Mech. , vol. 974, 2023, A35) and Jacobs & Dalziel ( J. Fluid Mech. , vol. 542, 2005, pp. 251–279). The problem consists of a layer of light fluid between two layers of heavy fluid with an Atwood number of 0.3. These simulations are first validated through comparison with available experimental data. The validated simulations are then utilized to analyse statistics in this three-component flow. First, length scales are examined utilizing spectra and two-point spatial correlations of velocity and species concentration fluctuations. Next, joint probability density functions (p.d.f.s) of species concentration are compared against several model p.d.f.s representing generalizations of the bivariate beta distribution. Notably, the joint p.d.f.s do not appear to be accurately described by a Dirichlet distribution, indicating the marginal distributions do not conform to a beta distribution. Finally, similarity of the present configuration to three-component mixing found in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) applications is exploited to develop and validate an improved model for the impact of multicomponent mixing on thermonuclear (TN) reaction rates. A single time instant from the present simulations is chosen for a TN burn calculation under the hypothetical assumption of ICF materials and temperatures. Total TN output from this second calculation is then compared against the prediction of the improved model. The new model is found to accurately predict TN reaction rates in both premixed and non-premixed configurations.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of probability density function descriptions for three-component Rayleigh–Taylor mixing

Results from simulations of a three-component Rayleigh–Taylor (RT) mixing problem are presented. These simulations are conducted in heavy–light–heavy and heavy–intermediate–light configurations, and each of these configurations are further considered in high- and low-Reynolds-number regimes. This results in RT-unstable flow with one or both interfaces initially unstable, permitting the influence of problem configuration on the statistical description of three-component RT-driven mixing to be considered. Mass fraction covariances are observed to undergo a sign change through the mixing layer in all four configurations considered. This appears to be unique to the multi-component case and represents another way in which multi-component RT mixing differs from the two-component case. Qualitative and quantitative comparisons of joint and marginal probability density function (PDF) descriptions of species concentration are made. Three-, five-, and six-parameter model PDFs are compared against simulation data to assess how accurately they describe the mixing, and it is found that three-component mixing requires at least a five-parameter model PDF to accurately describe the mixing. Notably, the marginal distributions of three-component mixing do not appear to conform to a beta distribution, representing a departure from the classical two-component RT case. In conclusion, statistical neutrality also appears to influence the optimal choice of model PDF, which is found to be a function of problem configuration.

Large-eddy simulation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Weakly Informed Priors for FLEX Data

On behalf of the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has reviewed the development and use of “weakly informed prior” (WIP) probability distributions to obtain industry-wide failure probability and rate distributions for portable “FLEX” equipment, as documented in the Pressurized Water Reactor Owner’s Group (PWROG) report, FLEX Equipment Data Collection and Analysis (PWROG 18043-P) by MM Degonish. The review includes a description of the methods used by the PWROG analysts. It also includes an implementation of those methods for comparison purposes and an implementation of two constrained-noninformative (CN) distributions for further WIP comparisons. The report documents several issues that the review identified in the development of the WIP distributions. They relate to the quality and representativeness of the current portable “FLEX” component data, the choice of informed distributions for related installed components, and the lack of verification for the factors chosen to weaken the information from the installed components. Two errors occurred in the computations: the posterior distribution of the WIP was used to modify the WIP itself, resulting in a lack of independence between the WIP and the data; and an error was made in the conversion of WIP mean and variance values to beta distributions. The INL reviewers think the WIP distributions presented in the report are untenable for use in risk assessments at the present time because of these issues.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Industry-Average Performance for Components and Initiating Events at U.S. Commercial Nuclear Power Plants: 2020 Update

This report documents the quantitative results of the current industry-average performance for components and initiating events (IEs) at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). It represents the third update of the original analysis in NUREG/CR-6928 with data through 2020. Continuous characterization and updating of current industry-average performance with the latest industry data available are important steps in maintaining up-to-date risk models. Typically, data from 1998–2002 were used in NUREG/CR-6928, data from 1998–2010 in the first update, data from 1998–2015 in the second update, and data from 2006–2020 in this update, although many IEs required longer periods for adequate characterization of frequencies in all these analyses. As with NUREG/CR-6928 and previous updates, four types of events are covered in this report: component unreliability (e.g., a pump that fails to start or fails to run), component or train unavailability resulting from test or maintenance outages, special event probabilities covering operational issues (e.g., pump restarts and injection valve re-openings during unplanned demands), and IE frequencies. Results (in the form of beta distributions for failure probabilities upon demand and gamma distributions for rates) are used as inputs to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission standardized plant analysis risk models covering U.S. commercial NPPs.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Microstructure-Based Estimation of Strength and Ductility Distributions for \(\alpha +\beta \) Titanium Alloys

Titanium alloys are processed to develop a wide range of microstructure configurations and therefore material properties. While these properties are typically measured experimentally, a framework for property prediction could greatly enhance alloy design and manufacturing. In this work, a microstructure-sensitive framework is presented for the prediction of strength and ductility as well as estimates of the bounds in variability for these properties. The framework explicitly considers distributions of microstructure via new approaches for instantiation of structure in synthetic samples. The parametric evaluation strategy, including the finite element simulation package FEpX, is used to create and test virtual polycrystalline samples to evaluate the variability bounds of mechanical properties in Ti-6Al-4V. Critical parameters for the property evaluation framework are provided by measurements of single crystal properties and advanced characterization of microstructure and slip system strengths in 2D and 3D. Property distributions for yield strength and ductility are presented, along with the validation and verification steps undertaken. Comparisons between strain localization and slip activity in virtual samples and in experimental grain-scale strain measurements are also discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Boundary of the Distribution of Solar Wind Proton Beta versus Temperature Anisotropy

Abstract The frequency distribution of solar wind protons, measured in the vicinity of Earth’s orbit, is customarily plotted in ( β ∥ , T ⊥ / T ∥ ) phase space. Here, T ⊥ / T ∥ is the ratio of perpendicular and parallel temperatures, and β ∥ = 8 π nT ∥ / B 2 is the ratio of parallel thermal energy to background magnetic field energy, the so-called “parallel beta,” with ⊥ and ∥ denoting directions with respect to the ambient magnetic field. Such a frequency distribution, plotted as a two-dimensional histogram, forms a peculiar rhombic shape defined with an outer boundary in the said phase space. Past studies reveal that the threshold conditions for temperature anisotropy–driven plasma instability partially account for the boundary on the high- β ∥ side. The low- β ∥ side remains largely unexplained despite some efforts. Work by Vafin et al. recently showed that certain contours of collisional relaxation frequency, ν pp , when parameterized by T ⊥ / T ∥ and β ∥ , could match the overall shape of the left-hand boundary, thus suggesting that the collisional relaxation process might be closely related to the formation of the left-hand boundary. The present paper extends the analysis by Vafin et al. and carries out the dynamical computation of the collisional relaxation process for an ensemble of initial proton states with varying degrees of anisotropic temperatures. The final states of the relaxed protons are shown to closely match the observed boundary to the left of the ( β ∥ , T ⊥ / T ∥ ) phase space. When coupled with a similar set of calculations for the ensemble in the collective instability regime, it is found that the combined collisional/collective effects provide the baseline explanation for the observation.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Migration of Al within dealuminated beta extruded catalysts influences olefin distribution during ethanol upgrading

Zeolites serve as essential catalytic platforms for many industrial processes, including emerging ethanol-to-olefins (ETO) upgrading technologies. Although metal-loaded (Cu, Zn, Y) dealuminated beta (deAlBeta) zeolite powders are promising catalysts for direct ETO conversion with high selectivity to butene-rich C3+ olefins necessary for production of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), development of these materials as shaped technical bodies through the incorporation of binders is required for scale-up and commercial viability. Here, we report the ethanol upgrading performance of Cu-Zn-Y/deAlBeta extruded catalysts formulated with either alumina or kaolin clay binders. Both extrudates exhibit high ethanol dehydration reactivity which competes with the initial ethanol dehydrogenation step in the direct ETO reaction network. Consequently, elevated selectivity to dehydration side products (ethylene, diethyl ether) at ∼100% ethanol conversion is observed on Cu-Zn-Y/deAlBeta extrudates compared to the powder catalyst, which inhibits production of desired C3+ olefins. Utilizing microscopy and spectroscopic characterizations, we attribute this to Al migration from binder to zeolite particles within the extrudates, thus re-aluminating the zeolite and generating Brønsted acid sites active for dehydration reactions. This work elucidates the effects of binder incorporation on ETO product distributions and emphasizes that binder selection must be carefully considered during design of extruded zeolite catalysts.

Jacobs, Hunter [ORNL] (ORCID:000000016190874X)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Basin-Size Mapping: Prediction of Metastable Polymorph Synthesizability Across TaC–TaN Alloys

The sizes of the basins of attraction on the potential energy surface are helpful indicators in determining the experimental synthesizability of metastable phases. In principle, these basins can be controlled with changes in thermodynamic conditions such as composition, pressure, and surface energy. Herein, we use random structure sampling to computationally study how alloying smoothly perturbs basin of attraction sizes. The TaC 1-x N x pseudobinary is an ideal test system given the structural and polymorphic contrast of its parent compounds and their technological relevance as epitaxial substrates for Al 1-x Ga x N. While we find limited thermodynamic stability across all computationally observed phases, random structure sampling shows a significant composition region where the rocksalt basin dominates. As such, we predict the potential for the nonequilibrium synthesis of metastable rocksalt TaC 1-x N x alloys as substrates for Al 1-x Ga x N. At higher nitrogen concentrations, other low-energy metastable polymorphs emerge that continue to retain the hexagonal close packing suitable for III-N growth. Confidence in these trends was established through uncertainty quantification of the basin sizes and energy distributions; such analysis utilized the Beta and Dirichlet distributions. In conclusion, we also find (a) polymorph basin sizes can be rationalized in terms of energetic preferences for different coordination environments; and (b) basin sizes universally shrink with increasing nitrogen content, making the system more prone to amorphous growth.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulation of SPND Beta-Current in AP1000 core

The Self-Powered Neutron Detectors (SPNDs) are widely used in Generation-III commercial PWR due to its small size and external-power free character. It can measure the in-core neutron flux density immediately to obtain the power profile in the core. To better understand the actual state of the simulated core, a SPND beta-current simulation module has been established in the NECP-Bamboo code. Firstly, neutron simulation is carried out in the lattice code Bamboo-Lattice together with nuclide depletion simulation to obtain the depleted composition of the entire lattice including the SPND, and the few-group parameters including density and cross section of emitter material. Secondly, the depleted lattice can then be piped into a Monte-Carlo code for neutron-photon-electron simulation to obtain the electron escape efficiency from the emitter of the SPND to the corresponding collector. Thirdly, the electron escape efficiency can be parameterized into the function of the lattice state parameters similarly to the common few-group constants. Finally, the beta-current was calculated by the core code Bamboo-Core simultaneously with the simulation of the core operation process. The beta-current of the Vanadium SPND in the AP1000 core was simulated and analyzed in this paper. Comparison between simulation and measurement of the beta-current distribution in the specific core state is shown in this paper to verify the effectiveness of the method and the code. The radial normalized current distribution is in good agreement with the measurement. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiple Changepoint Detection for Non‐Gaussian Time Series

ABSTRACT This article combines methods from existing techniques to identify multiple changepoints in non‐Gaussian autocorrelated time series. A transformation is used to convert a Gaussian series into a non‐Gaussian series, enabling penalized likelihood methods to handle non‐Gaussian scenarios. When the marginal distribution of the data is continuous, the methods essentially reduce to the change of variables formula for probability densities. When the marginal distribution is count‐oriented, Hermite expansions and particle filtering techniques are used to quantify the scenario. Simulations demonstrating the efficacy of the methods are given and two data sets are analyzed: 1) the proportion of home runs hit by Major League Baseball batters from 1920 to 2023 and 2) a six‐dimensional series of tropical cyclone counts from the Earth's basins of generation from 1980 to 2023. In the first series, beta marginal distributions are used to describe the proportions; in the second, Poisson marginal distributions seem appropriate.

Lund, Robert [Department of Statistics University ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep level defects in low-pressure chemical vapor deposition grown (010) β-Ga 2 O 3

This study provides the full-bandgap evaluation of defect state distributions in beta phase gallium oxide (β-Ga 2 O 3 ) grown by low-pressure chemical vapor deposition (LPCVD) on (010) β-Ga 2 O 3 substrates at high growth of up to 20 µm/h. Deep-level optical spectroscopy and deep-level transient spectroscopy measurements applied to Ni/β-Ga 2 O 3 Schottky diodes revealed the presence of a previously unreported defect state at E C -3.6 eV, which dominated the overall trap distribution in LPCVD grown material. However, states at E C -0.8 eV, E C -2.0 eV, and E C -4.4. eV were also detected, similar to prior studies on β-Ga 2 O 3 grown by other methods, with similar or lower concentrations for the LPCVD samples. The E C -0.8 eV and E C -2.0 eV states were previously connected to residual Fe impurities and gallium vacancies, respectively. The total concentration of traps in the LPCVD material was on par with or lower than the state-of-the-art metal–organic chemical vapor deposition-grown materials despite the much higher growth rate, and the distribution of states showed negligible dependence on SiCl 4 flow rate and doping concentration. These results demonstrate that the high growth rate of LPCVD-grown β-Ga 2 O 3 is very promising for achieving thick, low defect density, and high-quality layers needed for multi-kV device applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Solar Power Forecasting Using Bayesian Model Averaging

There is rising interest in probabilistic forecasting to mitigate risks from solar power uncertainty, but the numerical weather prediction (NWP) ensembles readily available to system operators are often biased and underdispersed. We propose a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) post-processing method suitable for forecasting power from utility-scale photovoltaic (PV) plants at multiple time horizons up to at least the day-ahead timescale. BMA is a kernel dressing technique for NWP ensembles in which the forecast is a weighted sum of member-specific probability density functions. We tailor BMA for utility-scale PV forecasting by modeling power clipping at the AC inverter rating and advance the theory of BMA with a new beta kernel parameterization that accommodates theoretical constraints not previously addressed. BMA is demonstrated for a case study of 11 utility-scale PV plants in Texas, forecasting at hourly resolution for the complete year 2018. BMA's mixture-model approach mitigates underdispersion of the raw ensemble to significantly improve forecast calibration, while consistently outperforming an ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) parametric approach from the literature. At 4-hour lead time, the BMA post-processing achieves continuous ranked probability skill scores of 2--36% over the raw ensemble, with consistent performance at multiple lead times suitable for power system operations.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Mesh-Sequenced Realizations for Evaluation of Subgrid-Scale Models for Turbulent Combustion

This paper develops a new approach for analysis of subgrid closures for turbulent combustion as modeled using direct quadrature (finite-rate chemistry) techniques. The approach, termed multiresolution analysis through mesh-sequenced realizations (MRA-MSR), conducts simultaneous, constrained large-eddy simulations on a set of hierarchically coarsened meshes. Furthermore, the availability of underlying fine-mesh (subgrid) data corresponding to coarse-mesh locations allows a clearer assessment of the effects of unresolved fluctuations on apparent reactivity. A key to MRA-MSR is the correlation of eddy structures at coarser mesh levels, which is facilitated by the transfer of filtered fine-mesh velocity information. A seven-mesh MRA-MSR hierarchy using three resolution levels is applied to one of the Sydney bluff-body stabilized methane–hydrogen flames. Analysis of the simultaneously evolved data at different resolution levels reveals several interesting trends. First, at high Damköhler numbers, there is clear evidence of attenuation of apparent reactivity due to the effects of unresolved fluctuations. Secondly, single-point, single-time filtered density functions of a normalized subgrid Damköhler number show a characteristic beta probability density function (PDF) form and display evidence of scale similarity. Interrogation of the MRA-MSR database also shows that the recently-proposed least-squares minimization (LSM) turbulence–chemistry interaction model can account for the observed diminishment in reactivity at high Damköhler numbers but cannot reduce scatter significantly. A new form of the LSM model, which makes use of the normalized subgrid Damköhler number beta PDF distribution, performs slightly better than the original model, illustrating the potential of MRA-MSR both in assessing existing closure concepts and in developing new ones.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling of plasma beta effects on the island divertor transport in the standard configuration of W7-X

The influence of plasma beta effects on the edge plasma transport in the Wendelstein 7-X standard configuration is studied systematically by using EMC3-EIRENE combined with a 3D equilibrium code named HINT. The magnetic topology changes induced by plasma beta effects are significantly reflected in plasma transport behaviors and heat flux patterns on divertor targets. After validating the modeling strategy by comparisons with experimental data, the extended simulations for high performance plasmas show that the threshold separatrix density for accessing the power detachment is reduced in higher beta plasmas. Compared with the vacuum field case, the impurity radiation distributions with finite beta effects are modified in the magnetic island region. The divertor heat flux is distributed more evenly along the toroidal direction on the strike line at the vertical target. The strike line on the horizontal target moves towards the pumping gap with an increase in the plasma beta. In addition, the different pressure profiles with the same central beta also result in a modified heat flux pattern on the divertor targets.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Kinetic stability of Chapman–Enskog plasmas

In this paper, we investigate the kinetic stability of classical, collisional plasma – that is, plasma in which the mean-free-path $\lambda$ of constituent particles is short compared with the length scale $L$ over which fields and bulk motions in the plasma vary macroscopically, and the collision time is short compared with the evolution time. Fluid equations are typically used to describe such plasmas, since their distribution functions are close to being Maxwellian. The small deviations from the Maxwellian distribution are calculated via the Chapman–Enskog (CE) expansion in $\lambda /L \ll 1$ , and determine macroscopic momentum and heat fluxes in the plasma. Such a calculation is only valid if the underlying CE distribution function is stable at collisionless length scales and/or time scales. We find that at sufficiently high plasma $\beta$ , the CE distribution function can be subject to numerous microinstabilities across a wide range of scales. For a particular form of the CE distribution function arising in strongly magnetised plasma ( viz. plasma in which the Larmor periods of particles are much smaller than collision times), we provide a detailed analytic characterisation of all significant microinstabilities, including peak growth rates and their associated wavenumbers. Of specific note is the discovery of several new microinstabilities, including one at sub-electron-Larmor scales (the ‘whisper instability’) whose growth rate in certain parameter regimes is large compared with other instabilities. Our approach enables us to construct the kinetic stability maps of classical, two-species collisional plasma in terms of $\lambda$ , the electron inertial scale $d_e$ and the plasma $\beta$ . This work is of general consequence in emphasising the fact that high- $\beta$ collisional plasmas can be kinetically unstable; for strongly magnetised CE plasmas, the condition for instability is $\beta \gtrsim L/\lambda$ . In this situation, the determination of transport coefficients via the standard CE approach is not valid.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

BRCore: an R package implementing flexible selection of core taxa using contribution to Bray-Curtis dissimilarity and neutral model fitting

Identifying core taxa in microbial ecology highlights groups likely to participate in a broad range of potential ecological interactions. Here, we present BRCore, an R package to identify core taxa using abundance-occupancy distributions and beta-diversity contributions across ecological niches, and predict stochastic and deterministic taxa.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

High-fidelity kinetic modeling of instabilities and gyromotion physics in nonuniform low-beta plasmas

A fourth-order accurate continuum kinetic Vlasov solver and a systematic method for constructing customizable kinetic equilibria are demonstrated to be powerful tools for the study of nonuniform collisionless low-beta plasmas. The noise-free methodology is applied to investigate two gradient-driven instabilities in 4D (x,y,vx,vy) phase space: the Kelvin–Helmholtz instability and the lower hybrid drift instability. Nonuniform two-species configurations where ion gyroradii are comparable to gradient scale lengths are explored. The approach sheds light on the evolution of the pressure tensor in Kelvin–Helmholtz instabilities and demonstrates that the associated stress tensor deviates significantly from the gyroviscous stress tensor. Even at high magnetization, first-order approximations to finite-gyromotion physics are shown to be inadequate for the Kelvin–Helmholtz instability, as shear scales evolve to become on par with gyromotion scales. The methodology facilitates exploring transport and energy partitioning properties associated with lower hybrid drift instabilities in low-beta plasma configurations. Distribution function features are captured in detail, including the formation of local extrema in the vicinity of particle-wave resonances. Finally, the approach enables detailed targeted investigations and advances kinetic simulation capability for plasmas in which gyromotion plays an important role.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Five-day track forecast skills of WRF model for the western North Pacific tropical cyclones

In this study, the characteristics of simulated tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific by a regional model (the WRF Model) are verified. We utilize 12-km horizontal grid spacing, and simulations are integrated for 5 days from model initialization. A total of 125 forecasts are divided into five clusters through the k-means clustering method. The TCs in the cluster 1 and 2 (group 1), which includes many TCs moving northward in the subtropical region, generally have larger track errors than for TCs in cluster 3 and 4 (group 2). The optimal steering vector is used to examine the difference in the track forecast skill between these two groups. The bias in the steering vector between the model and analysis data is found to be more substantial for group 1 TCs than group 2 TCs. The larger steering vector difference for group 1 TCs indicates that environmental fields tend to be poorly simulated in group 1 TC cases. Furthermore, the residual terms, including the storm-scale process, asymmetric convection distribution, or beta-related effect, are also larger for group 1 TCs than group 2 TCs. Therefore, it is probable that the large track forecast error for group 1 TCs is a result of unreasonable simulations of environmental wind fields and residual processes in the midlatitudes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗