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A Taxonomy of Fallacies in System Safety Arguments
Safety cases are gaining acceptance as assurance vehicles for safety-related systems. A safety case documents the evidence and argument that a system is safe to operate; however, logical fallacies in the underlying argument may undermine a system s safety claims. Removing these fallacies is essential to reduce the risk of safety-related system failure. We present a taxonomy of common fallacies in safety arguments that is intended to assist safety professionals in avoiding and detecting fallacious reasoning in the arguments they develop and review. The taxonomy derives from a survey of general argument fallacies and a separate survey of fallacies in real-world safety arguments. Our taxonomy is specific to safety argumentation, and it is targeted at professionals who work with safety arguments but may lack formal training in logic or argumentation. We discuss the rationale for the selection and categorization of fallacies in the taxonomy. In addition to its applications to the development and review of safety cases, our taxonomy could also support the analysis of system failures and promote the development of more robust safety case patterns.
"Evidence" Under a Magnifying Glass: Thoughts on Safety Argument Epistemology
Common definitions of "safety case" emphasize that evidence is the basis of a safety argument, yet few widely referenced works explicitly define "evidence". Their examples suggest that similar things can be regarded as evidence. But the category evidence seems to contain (1) processes for finding things out, (2) information resulting from such processes, and (3) relevant documents. Moreover, any item of evidence could be replaced by further argument. Normative models of informal argumentation do not offer clear guidance on when a safety argument should cite evidence rather than appeal to a more detailed argument. Disciplines such as the law address the problem with a practical, domain-specific epistemology. In this paper, we explore these problems associated with evidence citations in safety arguments, identify goals for a theory of safety argument evidence and a practical safety argument epistemology, propose a model of safety evidence citation that advances the identified goals, and present a related extension to the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN).
The Friendly Argument Notation (FAN)
This document defines and explains through examples the Friendly Argument Notation (FAN). FAN builds on previous work investigating text-based ways to express arguments [2, 3]. Its primary intended use is for creating and evaluating arguments about safety-critical systems, especially the types of arguments common within safety and assurance cases [4], but nothing in its design constrains its use to that domain. Compared to existing notations commonly used within this domain (for example [6]), FAN corresponds more closely to traditional argument concepts (for example [1]), allows greater flexibility in expression, provides for including counter-arguments, and requires less knowledge of computer-science-specific concepts. Only time and use will determine how beneficial these differences are in practice. This paper concentrates on showing how FAN looks to someone who is using it manually to develop or assess arguments. A later document will concentrate on providing the information necessary for software tools to be created for FAN.
Integrating Scientific Argumentation to Improve Undergraduate Writing and Learning in a Global Environmental Change Course
We present a strategy for using scientific argumentation in an early undergraduate laboratory course to teach disciplinary writing practices and to promote critical thinking, knowledge transformation, and understanding of the scientific method. The approach combines targeted writing instruction; data analysis and interpretation; formulation of a hypothesis; and construction of an argument. Students submit and receive feedback on two drafts of two different argumentation essays, providing the opportunity for guided practice. Each written argument is intended to draw on several weeks' course material, including short lectures, discussions, readings, and problem sets. Thus our aim with these writing assignments is to help students synthesize content and concepts, deepening their learning. We have found that this inquiry-based approach to writing engages students in course material, and significantly improves both writing and learning. We observed the greatest improvement among students with the lowest initial scores, suggesting that lower-achieving students benefitted disproportionately from this approach. Students have responded positively to the use of writing in the course, many stating on course evaluations that this is the first time they have received instruction in scientific writing. They have also pointed to a greater 'big-picture' understanding of the course gained through writing. We describe the course and our curriculum, and provide suggestions for implementation as well as rubrics used to evaluate problem sets and student argumentation essays.
Formal Assurance Arguments: A Solution In Search of a Problem?
An assurance case comprises evidence and argument showing how that evidence supports assurance claims (e.g., about safety or security). It is unsurprising that some computer scientists have proposed formalizing assurance arguments: most associate formality with rigor. But while engineers can sometimes prove that source code refines a formal specification, it is not clear that formalization will improve assurance arguments or that this benefit is worth its cost. For example, formalization might reduce the benefits of argumentation by limiting the audience to people who can read formal logic. In this paper, we present (1) a systematic survey of the literature surrounding formal assurance arguments, (2) an analysis of errors that formalism can help to eliminate, (3) a discussion of existing evidence, and (4) suggestions for experimental work to definitively answer the question.
A Primer on Argument Assessment
This paper follows up A Primer on Argument by providing introductory information about how to assess arguments. The structure is as follows. The opening section identifies and summarizes prerequisite information a reader needs to understand to understand this document. Section 2 introduces a way (but not the only way) to assess atomic arguments. Section 3 does the same for compound arguments. Section 4 wraps everything up. Appendix A collects the crucial information in one place. Appendix B explicates a detailed assessment example. The paper is published as a white paper because it is intended to be updated as additional experience is gained with its use.
The Friendly Argument Notation (FAN): 2023 Version
This document constitutes the official description of the current iteration of the Friendly Argument Notation (FAN). This new version provides several enhancements to the original 2020 instantiation, while maintaining essential compatibility with it. Specifically, the new version enables distinguishing between deductive and non-deductive arguments, removes the requirement for always providing an explicit statement of reasoning, and relaxes the rules for when labels may be used. The primary intended use of FAN is unchanged: creating and evaluating arguments about safety-critical systems, specifically the types of arguments common within safety and assurance cases.
Quantum discord is Bohr’s notion of non-mechanical disturbance introduced to counter the Einstein–Podolsky–Rosen argument
By rigorously formalizing the Einstein–Podolsky–Rosen (EPR) argument, and Bohr’s reply, one can appreciate that both arguments were technically correct. Their opposed conclusions about the completeness of quantum mechanics hinged upon an explicit difference in their criteria for when a measurement on Alice’s system can be regarded as not disturbing Bob’s system. The EPR criteria allow their conclusion–incompleteness–to be reached by establishing the physical reality of just a single observable q (not of both q and its conjugate observable p), but I show that Bohr’s definition of disturbance prevents the EPR chain of reasoning from establishing even this. Moreover, I show that Bohr’s definition is intimately related to the asymmetric concept of quantum discord from quantum information theory: if and only if the joint state has no Alice-discord, she can measure any observable without disturbing (in Bohr’s sense) Bob’s system. Discord can be present even when systems are unentangled, and this has implications for our understanding of the historical development of notions of quantum nonlocality. -- Highlights: •Both the EPR argument, and Bohr’s reply, were technically correct. •Their opposed conclusions came from different criteria for disturbance. •Bohr’s criterion works against even the simplified (one-variable) EPR argument. •Bohr’s criterion for disturbance is intimately related to quantum discord. •This illuminates the historical development of notions of quantum nonlocality.
An Investigation of Proposed Techniques for Quantifying Confidence in Assurance Arguments
The use of safety cases in certification raises the question of assurance argument sufficiency and the issue of confidence (or uncertainty) in the argument's claims. Some researchers propose to model confidence quantitatively and to calculate confidence in argument conclusions. We know of little evidence to suggest that any proposed technique would deliver trustworthy results when implemented by system safety practitioners. Proponents do not usually assess the efficacy of their techniques through controlled experiment or historical study. Instead, they present an illustrative example where the calculation delivers a plausible result. In this paper, we review current proposals, claims made about them, and evidence advanced in favor of them. We then show that proposed techniques can deliver implausible results in some cases. We conclude that quantitative confidence techniques require further validation before they should be recommended as part of the basis for deciding whether an assurance argument justifies fielding a critical system.
Assurance Arguments for the Non-Graphically-Inclined: Two Approaches
We introduce and discuss two approaches to presenting assurance arguments. One approach is based on a monograph structure, while the other is based on a tabular structure. In today's research and academic setting, assurance cases often use a graphical notation; however for people who are not graphically inclined, these notations can be difficult to read. This document proposes, outlines, explains, and presents examples of two non-graphical assurance argument notations that may be appropriate for non-graphically-inclined readers and also provide argument writers with freedom to add details and manipulate an argument in multiple ways.
False Beliefs about the Overarching Properties and Overarching Properties Related Arguments
False beliefs about new ideas are not new. They happen all the time, for a wide variety of reasons. Although the Overarching Properties are solidly grounded in time-honored principles, they constitute a novel expression of those ideas, and newness-based false beliefs about them are to be expected. Similarly, although Overarching Properties Related Arguments are solidly grounded in thousands of years of study of the principles of argumentation, they introduce concepts and applications that are novel to many engineers and engineering managers. So, false beliefs about them are also to be expected. Indeed, false beliefs have arisen and are spreading in the wild about both the Overarching Properties and Overarching Properties Related Arguments. This paper seeks to dispel three known false beliefs about each concept.
The Simple Assurance Argument Interchange Format (SAAIF) Manual
This document describes the Simple Assurance Argument Interchange Format, a proposed meta-model for describing structured assurance arguments. We describe the syntax and semantics of the model elements, compare the meta-model to existing argument formats, and give an example to illustrate its use.
Leveling Arguments: Easier Said Than Done
The aerospace industry’s current desire to rapidly adopt new technologies is inconsistent with the traditional approach to creating new aerospace certification standards. To address this, an FAA-sponsored international Overarching Properties Working Group comprising industry representatives and certifying agencies has introduced the concept of Overarching Properties (OPs). OPs provide a foundation for proposing alternative Means of Compliance (MoC) by demonstrating a product's possession of the Intent, Correctness, and Innocuity properties. Handling criticality levels with the OPs is in its infancy but still required to integrate alternative MoC into the existing aerospace certification infrastructure. This paper examines the impact of criticality levels on the creation and evaluation of OP-related arguments (OPRAs), specifically focusing on the Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) system. The study highlights the need for tailored OPRA creation based on assigned criticality levels and proposes self-assessment techniques to strengthen arguments. This research serves as a stepping stone in exploring criticality levels for OPs and bridging the gap in aerospace certification practices.
Testing Functions of One and Two Arguments
Software to evaluate functions of one or two arguments is too often tested or certified, or the accuracy assessed, by ad hoc methods. Systematic methods to test, certify or assess the accuracy of single- or double-precision functions of one or two arguments, and supporting software, are described here.
Evidence Arguments for Using Formal Methods in Software Certification
We describe a generic approach for automatically integrating the output generated from a formal method/tool into a software safety assurance case, as an evidence argument, by (a) encoding the underlying reasoning as a safety case pattern, and (b) instantiating it using the data produced from the method/tool. We believe this approach not only improves the trustworthiness of the evidence generated from a formal method/tool, by explicitly presenting the reasoning and mechanisms underlying its genesis, but also provides a way to gauge the suitability of the evidence in the context of the wider assurance case. We illustrate our work by application to a real example-an unmanned aircraft system- where we invoke a formal code analysis tool from its autopilot software safety case, automatically transform the verification output into an evidence argument, and then integrate it into the former.
Assessing the perception and reality of arguments against thermal waste treatment plants in terms of property prices
Highlights: • Previous research studies have shown that EfW facilities negatively impact the local house prices. • In this study property prices surrounding 3 operational EfW plants were analysed. • No significant negative effect on property prices due to an incinerator was found. - Abstract: The thermal processing of waste materials, although considered to be an essential part of waste management, is often sharply contested in the UK. Arguments such as health, depletion of resources, cost, noise, odours, traffic movement and house prices are often cited as reasons against the development of such facilities. This study aims to review the arguments and identify any effect on property prices due to the public perception of the plant. A selection of existing energy from waste (EfW) facilities in the UK, operational for at least 7 years, was selected and property sales data, within 5 km of the sites, was acquired and analysed in detail. The locations of the properties were calculated in relation to the plant using GIS software (ArcGIS) and the distances split into 5 zones ranging from 0 to 5 km from the site. The local property sale prices, normalised against the local house price index, were compared in two time periods, before and after the facility became operational, across each of the 5 zones. In all cases analysed no significant negative effect was observed on property prices at any distance within 5 km from a modern operational incinerator. This indicated that the perceived negative effect of the thermal processing of waste on local property values is negligible.
Charge density waves in disordered media circumventing the Imry-Ma argument
Two powerful theoretical predictions, Anderson localization and the Imry-Ma argument, impose significant restrictions on the phases of matter that can exist in the presence of even the smallest amount of disorder in one-dimensional systems. These predictions forbid electrically conducting states and ordered states respectively. It was thus remarkable that a mechanism to circumvent Anderson localization relying on the presence of correlated disorder was found, that is also realized in certain biomolecular systems. Here, in a similar manner, we show that the Imry-Ma argument can be circumvented, resulting in the formation of stable ordered states with discrete broken symmetries in disordered one dimensional systems. We then investigate other mechanisms by which disorder can destroy an ordered state.