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DOE OSTI2021

Classified library critical in Lab’s Annual Assessment of weapons to U.S. President. National Security Resource Center’s collections are the foundation to stockpile confidence

One of the most important accomplishments every year at LANL is a letter sent by the Laboratory Director that ultimately reaches the President of the United States. The subject is the current state of the weapons for which the Lab is responsible. Known as the Annual Assessment letter, it is a culmination of nearly 14 months’ worth of work and the contributions of more than 1,000 Lab staff members. Its classified contents come from the Lab’s Annual Assessment, which is an approximately 100-page document evaluating the safety, security and effectiveness of the stockpile.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Annual Assessment Reporting Process

On 11 August 1995, President Clinton announced that the United States intended to enter negotiations on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. To address concerns that the cessation of nuclear testing would introduce uncertainty about the efficacy of the U.S. nuclear deterrent, he also announced the concurrent establishment of six Safeguards as conditions of entry. Safeguard A prescribed “. . . a Science Based Stockpile Stewardship program to ensure a high level of confidence in the safety and reliability of nuclear weapons in the active stockpile.” Safeguard B required “The maintenance of modern nuclear laboratory facilities and programs in theoretical and exploratory nuclear technology which will attract, retain, and ensure . . . human scientific resources.” These two Safeguards led to the establishment of the physical and intellectual capabilities to sustain the Nation’s nuclear deterrent without nuclear testing.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2021

FY2020 performance assessment annual review for the E-area low-level waste facility

The Savannah River Site (SRS) E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (ELLWF) consists of six types of disposal units described in the Performance Assessment (PA) (WSRC, 2008): Low Activity Waste Vault (LAWV), Intermediate Level Vault (ILV), Trenches [Slit Trenches (STs), Engineered Trenches (ETs), and Component-in-Grout (CIG) Trenches], and Naval Reactor Component Disposal Areas (NRCDAs). The ELLWF is a part of the Solid Waste Management Facility (SWMF). SWMF is managed and operated by the SRS Management and Operations prime contractor, Savannah River Nuclear Solutions (SRNS). Within SRNS, the Solid Waste Management (SWM) organization is responsible for operating the SWMF, and the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) is the technical agency responsible for preparing and maintaining the PA. SWMF operations have been performed at SRS since 1952. The mission of the SWMF is to provide storage, processing, disposal, and shipment of radioactive, hazardous, and mixed waste. The SWMF is committed to treat, store, and dispose of these waste products in a manner that protects the environment and the health and safety of the facility worker, the co-located worker, and the offsite general public. Wastes handled in the SWMF include low level waste, transuranic waste, hazardous waste, Toxic Substances Control Act waste, and mixed waste (containing both hazardous and radioactive constituents). The FY2020 PA Annual Review for the ELLWF affirms that the disposal facility continued to operate within the bounds of the current PA and Composite Analysis (CA) baseline and the subsequent SA’s and satisfied all the requirements, conditions, and limitations identified in the 2008 DAS (DOE 2008a), RWMB SRNL_STI-2020-00588 Revision 0 vi (McGill, 2020), and ELLWF Low-Level Waste Acceptance Criteria (SRS-1S, 2014). This annual review affirms that the supporting studies performed in FY2020 do not alter the conclusions of the ELLWF PA (WSRC, 2008) and that there is a reasonable expectation that the ELLWF will meet the performance objectives delineated in DOE Manual 435.1-1 (DOE 2011)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2020

FY2019 Performance Assessment Annual Review for the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reinforcement Learning Control for Buildings Co-Optimizing Energy, Comfort, and Indoor Air Quality: An Annual Assessment

Efficient control of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems is crucial for optimizing energy use and maintaining indoor comfort in buildings. Traditional control methods, such as PID control, cannot handle energy use trade-offs among multiple components in the building energy system at a supervisory level. Reinforcement learning (RL) presents a promising solution, offering adaptive and data-driven control strategies that optimize performance over time. However, RL also faces several challenges, including the conflicts encountered in co-optimizing energy savings, occupant comfort, and indoor air quality, and the requirement for extensive interactions with the environment in training. We proposed a flexible simulation platform that integrates a hybrid model for RL training and designed an RL agent to control the entire central HVAC system, focusing on co-optimizing energy consumption, thermal comfort, and indoor air quality ($\text{CO}_{2}$ and PM2.5 concentrations). Finally, we evaluated the RL agent's performance over an annual cycle. Our findings indicate that the RL agent can effectively manage the HVAC system with 14.7 % energy savings annually and balance multiple objectives, which demonstrates significant potential for improving HVAC system control and sustainability in buildings.

Guo, Fangzhou↗

DOE OSTI2023

Supply Chain Binary Program Assessment Annual Report

Secure environments face a steadily increasing threat from the introduction of scientific equipment that includes extensive software components. Devices such as powerful microscopes, 3d printers, programmable logic controllers, and many others, increase our capability and scientific output. Unfortunately, they now frequently include an entire computing stack with custom software bundled along with entire operating systems. Our ability to introspect and understand binary software is extremely limited, opening up the possibility of malicious third-parties including software that compromises our critical missions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

January 2022 Operational Highlights

The Indexing Lab is now complete and includes classified and unclassified computers, safes and work stations. Staff capture metadata and catalog materials, including classified reports, directors’ correspondence and Rocky Flats materials to ensure the holdings are discoverable and retrievable. Access protocols were updated for products related to the LANL Annual Assessment in the Online Vault (OLV) classified repository. The Annual Assessment is a yearly analysis of the weapons systems in the nation’s nuclear stockpile. The Standardization Quality Assessment (SQA) for the Online Vault (OLV) classified repository was completed and contained no findings. Beta testing, or customer validation, began for the metrics database that generates metrics reports and visualizations from NSRC customer projects.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Strategic Analyses and Assessments Office Annual Report 2023

The past year has seen a significant increase in focus on strategic issues with the continued aggression by Russia, the rapid expansion of China’s military—particularly their nuclear capabilities, North Korea’s rapid improvements in intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) technology, and the increase in Iranian fuel enrichment. The U.S. continues to modernize Nuclear Command Control and Communication and all three legs of its nuclear Triad—Columbia-class submarines, Sentinel ICBMs, and B-21 bombers—for the Department of Defense (DOD). At the same time, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) is updating its stockpile, producing the B61-12, the new B61-13, the W88 Alteration, the W87-1—with new pits, and the W80-4. This rework of the nuclear enterprise represents the most aggressive expansion of our capabilities and infrastructure in the modern era. At the same time, the Strategic Posture Commission completed its report to Congress and reported that the current modernization program, although clearly necessary, is insufficient to meet the threats that are emerging.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

DOE OSTI2025

Peatland Plant Community Changes in Annual Production and Composition Through 8 Years of Warming Manipulations Under Ambient and Elevated CO 2 Atmospheres

The Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) experiment has operated five whole-ecosystem warming manipulations (+0, +2.25, +4.5, +6.75, and +9°C) with paired ambient and elevated CO 2 atmospheres (eCO 2 , +500 ppm) for 8 full calendar years (since August 2015). We tracked shrub-layer vegetation responses to the treatments using annual destructive plot sampling. Tree (Picea and Larix) responses were assessed annually using nondestructive dimensional analyses and allometric conversions. Shrub community changes were assessed for key ericaceous shrubs (Rhododendron, Chamaedaphne, and Kalmia), two Vaccinium species (V. angustifolium, V. oxycoccos), graminoid species (mostly Eriophorum), and one common forb (Maianthemum trifolium), plus minor understory species. We tracked annual aboveground net primary production (ANPP) for vascular plant species in gC m -2 y -1 and overall stand contribution in dry mass. We observed a linear increase in shrub-layer aboveground biomass accumulation with warming over time due primarily to an increase in ericaceous shrub abundance. Cumulative biomass increases across the shrub community showed overall positive responses to eCO 2 after 8 years. Community composition also changed with warming, with increases in woody shrub density, and the reduction or loss of forbs. The tree community showed minimal initial responses to warming early in the treatments, but since 2020, has shown significant increases in ANPP and individual tree growth with warming. The main driver of change in the vascular plant community was temperature, with less pronounced effects of eCO 2 evident. These results indicate an overall increase in ANPP with warming from both the tree and shrub layers of peatland vegetation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessment Report ASMT-1033: Department 635 FY2019 Evaluate Center 600 Assessment Process

This assessment reviewed the Center 600 assessment process; gathered knowledge from 17 assessment points of contact across the Center; piloted an annual assessment planning process; and compared Center 600 Administrative Operating Procedure (AOP) 04-04, Assessments, to current practices and corporate requirements. The assessment identified two observations, three noteworthy practices, and multiple opportunities for improvement beyond the scope of the assessment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2021

Bhutan Water Resources II: Comparing Phenology, Precipitation, and Temperature Data in Bhutan to Assist the Himalayan Environmental Rhythm Observation and Evaluation System (HEROES) Project

Bhutan is vulnerable to climate fluctuations that can affect vegetation phenology patterns. Changes in the climate have raised concerns from local farmers about altered growing seasons. In response, the DEVELOP team assessed annual vegetation phenology trends across Bhutan from 1981-2014 by comparing vegetation phenology-derived data and meteorological data. The project assessed phenology change using Vegetation Index and Phenology (VIP) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) products from the Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and the Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors. We also used Climate Hazards Center Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) precipitation data and Famine Early Warning System Network Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS) temperature data to assess climate trends in the country. The team assessed VIP phenology data for 1981-2014 to assess trends for the start of season, day of peak, and length of season. For the main growing season, the results indicated that the start of season and day of peak were delayed, while the length of season increased by 22 days. Analysis of temperature and precipitation data for the early 1980s to present indicted that Bhutan’s temperature has become warmer and precipitation has increased. Satellite-based precipitation and temperature data were compared to in situ precipitation and temperature data, yielding high correlations for both precipitation (R=0.85) and temperature (R=0.9). The project results and methods were shared with the Ugyen Wangchuck Institute for Conservation and Environmental Research (UWICER) to help assess climate change impacts in Bhutan.

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗

DOE OSTI2026

Biases in preconstruction estimates of wind plant annual energy production

Estimating the energy yield of a wind plant during the preconstruction phase is a historically difficult task, even with industry improvements in these estimations. We build on prior research comparing the realized energy production of wind plants and their estimated annual energy production P50 values (median energy production), using owner-provided energy production and losses. We produced similar results to prior studies but with a slightly increasing bias of overestimating median energy production (a bias between realized and estimated energy production of −7.4 % to −6.6 %, depending on the scenario, as opposed to −6.7 % to −5.5 % from earlier studies). In addition to assessing annual energy production P50 bias, we compared both the 1-year and the long-term annual energy production P90 and uncertainty energy yield assessment estimates to the observed long-term-corrected energy production. We found that neither the energy yield assessment uncertainty nor the P90 is conservative enough compared to the observed distribution of prediction errors, suggesting significant room for improvement in the energy yield assessment process.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2023

Interactions Between Thresholds and Spatial Discretizations of Snow: Insights From Estimates of Wolverine Denning Habitat in the Colorado Rocky Mountains

Thresholds can be used to interpret environmental data in a way that is easily communicated and useful for decision making purposes. However, thresholds are often developed for specific data products and time periods, changing findings when the same threshold is applied to datasets or periods with different characteristics. Here, we test the impact of different spatial discretizations of snow on annual estimates of wolverine denning opportunities in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, defined using a snow water equivalent (SWE) threshold (0.20 m) and threshold date (15 May) from previous habitat assessments. Annual potential wolverine denning area (PWDA) was thresholded from a 36-year (1985 – 2020) snow reanalysis model with three different spatial discretizations: 1) 480 m grid cells (D480), 2) 90 m grid cells (D90), and 3) 480 m grid cells with implicit representations of subgrid snow spatial heterogeneity (S480). Relative to the D480 and S480 discretizations, D90 resolved shallower snow deposits on slopes between 3050 and 3350 m elevation, decreasing PWDA by 10%, on average. In years with warmer and/or drier winters, S480 discretizations with subgrid representations of snow heterogeneity increased PWDA, even within grid cells where mean 15 May SWE was less than the SWE threshold. These simulations increased PWDA by upwards of 30% in low snow years, as compared to the D480 and D90 simulations without subgrid snow heterogeneity. Despite PWDA sensitivity to different snow spatial discretizations, PWDA was controlled more by annual variations in winter precipitation and temperature. However, small changes to the SWE threshold (± 0.07 m) and threshold date (± 2 weeks) also affected PWDA by as much as 82%. Across these threshold ranges, PWDA was approximately 18% more sensitive to the SWE threshold than the threshold date. However, the sensitivity to the threshold date was larger in years with late spring snowfall, when PWDA depended on whether modeled SWE was thresholded before, during, or after spring snow accumulation. Our results demonstrate that snow thresholds are useful but may not always provide a complete picture of the annual variability in snow-adapted wildlife denning opportunities. Studies thresholding spatiotemporal datasets could be improved by including 1) information about the fidelity of thresholds across multiple spatial discretizations, and 2) uncertainties related to ranges of realistic thresholds.

Justin M. Pflug↗

NASA NTRS2016

Seasonal Variation of Total Mercury Burden in the American Alligator (Alligator Mississippiensis) at Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge (MINWR), Florida

Seasonal variation of mercury (Hg) is not well studied in free-ranging wildlife. Atmospheric deposition patterns of Hg have been studied in detail and have been modeled for both global and specific locations with great accuracy and correlates to environment impact. However, monitoring these trends in wildlife is complicated due to local environmental parameters (e.g., rainfall, humidity, pH, bacterial composition) that can affect the transformation of atmospheric Hg to the biologically available forms. Here, we utilized an abundant and healthy population of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) at Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge (MINWR), FL, and assessed Hg burden in whole blood samples over a span of 7 years (2007 2014; n 174) in an effort to assess seasonal variation of total [Hg]. While the majority of this population is assumed healthy, 18 individuals with low body mass indices (BMI, defined in this study) were captured throughout the 7 year sampling period. These individual alligators exhibited [Hg] that were not consistent with the observed overall seasonal [Hg] variation, and were statistically different from the healthy population of alligators. The alligators with low BMI had elevated concentrations of Hg compared to their age/sex/season matched counterparts with normal BMI. Statistically significant differences were found between the winter and spring seasons for animals with normal BMI. The data in this report supports the conclusion that organismal total [Hg] do fluctuate directly with seasonal deposition rates as well as other seasonal environmental parameters, such as average rainfall and prevailing wind direction. This study highlights the unique environment of MINWR to permit annual assessment of apex predators, such as the American alligator, to determine detailed environmental impact of contaminants of concern.

Hg↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cropland expansion in the United States produces marginal yields at high costs to wildlife

Recent expansion of croplands in the United States has caused widespread conversion of grasslands and other ecosystems with largely unknown consequences for agricultural production and the environment. Here we assess annual land use change 2008–16 and its impacts on crop yields and wildlife habitat. We find that croplands have expanded at a rate of over one million acres per year, and that 69.5% of new cropland areas produced yields below the national average, with a mean yield deficit of 6.5%. Observed conversion infringed upon high-quality habitat that, relative to unconverted land, had provided over three times higher milkweed stem densities in the Monarch butterfly Midwest summer breeding range and 37% more nesting opportunities per acre for waterfowl in the Prairie Pothole Region of the Northern Great Plains. Our findings demonstrate a pervasive pattern of encroachment into areas that are increasingly marginal for production, but highly significant for wildlife, and suggest that such tradeoffs may be further amplified by future cropland expansion.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Community size-spectra applied to recreational freshwater fisheries in Puerto Rican reservoirs

We developed a management framework based on community size-spectra (CSS) to establish targets to maximize desirable gamefish. We evaluated the influence of relative abundance of fish functional groups and watershed characteristics on the slope of the CSS or ecological efficiency. Both ecological efficiency and capacity were strongly influenced by relative abundance of fish functional groups and the degree of water level variation. Steeper slopes indicated overfished gamefish populations, whereas flatter slopes indicated systems dominated by undesirable invasive large-bodied low trophic position fish. We hypothesize that a desirable fishery would have a target range of CSS slopes that provides a deterministic community-based framework of predictable responses to environmental and food web changes that can be used to evaluate outcomes of management actions and a means to assess annual progress toward desirable conditions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

An Introduction to Los Alamos National Laboratory [Slides]

The Weapon Systems Engineering Division (W) provides the system engineering and program management necessary to sustain the safety, reliability, and security of the Los Alamos National Laboratory’s assets in the active United States nuclear stockpile - the B61, W76, W78 and W88. The Division generates key certification data for Annual Assessment supporting the Laboratory Director's letter to the President on the health of those warheads. This role demands ongoing surveillance of the active stockpile and evaluation of the potential impact of any issues through design, engineering, fabrication, testing using state-of-the-art computational simulation tools and engineering test facilities. The Division works in close liaison with the several production facilities across the nuclear security complex as well as with the customers in the US Navy and Air Force.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2022

Operational and Mission Highlights: A Monthly Summary of Top Achievements October 2022

On Sept. 26, Director Thom Mason signed the Laboratory’s annual assessment of four of the weapons systems in our nation’s nuclear stockpile: the B61 family of bombs and the W76, the W78 and the W88 warheads. Addressed to the secretary of energy, the secretary of defense and the chair of the Nuclear Weapons Council, this letter informs the president of the United States of our confidence that the stockpile remains safe, secure, and effective now and into the future as a result of our dedicated sustainment and modernization efforts.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗