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Techno-economic analysis and life-cycle analysis of two light-duty bio-blendstocks: isobutanol and aromatic rich hydrocarbons

Isobutanol and aromatic-rich hydrocarbons (ARHC) are two biomass-derived high octane blendstocks that could be blended with petroleum gasoline for use in optimized spark-ignition engines in light-duty vehicles, potentially increasing engine efficiency. To evaluate technology readiness, economic viability, and environmental impacts of these technologies, we use detailed techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life-cycle analysis (LCA). We assumed isobutanol is produced via biochemical conversion of an herbaceous feedstock blend while ARHC is produced via thermochemical conversion of a woody feedstock blend.The minimum estimated fuel selling price (MFSP) of isobutanol ranged from $5.57/gasoline gallon equivalent (GGE) based on today’s technology to $4.22/GGE with technology advancements. The MFSP of ARHC could decline from $5.20/GGE based on today’s technology to $4.20/GGE as technology improves. Both isobutanol and ARHC offer about 73% GHG emission reduction relative to petroleum gasoline per LCA of these two bio-blendstocks. On the other hand, water consumption in the production of both bio-blendstocks exceeds that of conventional gasoline although process engineering offers routes to cutting water consumption. Over their life cycles, both isobutanol and ARHC emit more NOx and PM2.5 than petroleum gasoline.Improving the energy efficiency and lowering air emissions from agricultural equipment will reduce the life-cycle air pollutant emissions of these bio-blendstocks.

techno-economic analysis, life-cycle analysis, bio↗

Life-cycle analysis of integrated biorefineries with co-production of biofuels and bio-based chemicals: co-product handling methods and implications: Co-product handling methods and implications of life-cycle analysis of biofuel and bio-chemical co-producing biorefineries

New integrated biorefinery (IBR) concepts are being investigated to co-produce hydrocarbon fuels and high-value bio-based chemicals to improve the economic viability of IBRs, to enhance biomass resource utilization efficiencies, and to maximize potential greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. Unlike fuel-only biorefineries, IBRs may co-produce a significant amount of bio-based chemicals, whose emission implications for specific biorefinery products and the biorefinery as a whole need to be evaluated. We discuss this in principle and apply three sets of co-product handling methods to conduct life-cycle analysis (LCA) of modeled IBRs with co-production of two bioproduct examples - succinic acid and adipic acid - alongside a renewable diesel blendstock fuel product. The LCA results for the specific co-product handling methods that were examined shed light on potential artifacts of product-specific LCA with selected co-product methods. We discuss the advantages and limitations of each method and conclude that (i) a system-level or 'black-box' LCA allocation method is too simplistic to reflect appropriately the GHG burdens of distinctly different processing trains for fuels and chemicals in the IBR context, and (ii) the displacement method is the only co-product handling method that accounts fully for the emission effects of both the fuel product and the non-fuel bio-based co-products in the IBRs within the context of the existing fuel-focused GHG regulatory framework. Alternatively, biorefinery system-level LCA combines benefits of individual products to offer a complete picture. This system-level LCA approach offers a holistic LCA without somewhat arbitrary decisions either on an allocation basis or by the selection of an evaluation metric based on specific products.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Dynamic Approach to Dependency Analysis in Human Reliability Analysis: Application in a Stream Generator Tube Rupture Scenario

Dependency analysis in human reliability analysis (HRA) is a method of adjusting the failure probability of a given action by considering the impact of the action preceding it. It plays a role in reasonably accounting for human actions in the context of probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs), preventing PSA results from being estimated too optimistically based on the HRA results. Nevertheless, the existing dependency methods present a couple of challenges in that the quantification approaches rarely explain the adjustment of human error probabilities (HEPs). For this reason, the authors’ previous research has pointed out challenges of the existing dependency approaches and conceptually, theoretically proposed a performance shaping factor (PSF)-based dynamic dependency analysis method for HRA in order to complement the existing dependency methods. The current paper explores the latest version of the method and guidance for applying it to a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) scenario.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Human Factors in Streaming Data Analysis: Challenges and Opportunities for Information Visualization: Human Factors in Streaming Data Analysis

State-of-the-art visual analytics models and frameworks mostly assume a static snapshot of the data, while in many cases it is a stream with constant updates and changes. Exploration of streaming data poses unique challenges as machine-level computations and abstractions need to be synchronized with the visual representation of the data and the temporally evolving human insights. In the visual analytics literature, we lack a thorough characterization of streaming data and analysis of the challenges associated with task abstraction, visualization design, and adaptation of the role of human-in-the-loop for exploration of data streams. We aim to fill this gap by conducting a survey of the state-of-the-art in visual analytics of streaming data for systematically describing the contributions and shortcomings of current techniques and analyzing the research gaps that need to be addressed in the future. Our contributions are: i) problem characterization for identifying challenges that are unique to streaming data analysis tasks, ii) a survey and analysis of the state-of-the-art in streaming data visualization research with a focus on the visualization design space for dynamic data and the role of the human-in-the-loop, and iii) reflections on the design-trade-offs for streaming visual analytics techniques and their practical applicability in real-world application scenarios.

streaming data↗

Analysis of Electric Vehicle Charging Behavior Patterns with Function Principal Component Analysis Approach

This manuscript focused on analyzing electric vehicles’ (EV) charging behavior patterns with a functional data analysis (FDA) approach, with the goal of providing theoretical support to the EV infrastructure planning and regulation, as well as the power grid load management. 5-year real-world charging log data from a total of 455 charging stations in Kansas City, Missouri, was used. The focuses were placed on analyzing the daily usage occupancy variability, daily energy consumption variability, and station-level usage variability. Compared with the traditional discrete-based analysis models, the proposed FDA modeling approach had unique advantages in preserving the smooth function behavior of the data, bringing more flexibility in the modeling process with little required assumptions or background knowledge on independent variables, as well as the capability of handling time series data with different lengths or sizes. In addition to the patterns revealed in the EV charging station’s occupancy and energy consumption, the differences between EV driver’s charging time and parking time were analyzed and called for the needs for parking regulation and enforcement. The different usage patterns observed at charging stations located on different land-use types were also analyzed.

Engineering↗

Techno-economic Analysis and Life-Cycle Analysis of Renewable Diesel Fuels Produced with Waste Feedstocks

Wet waste feedstocks represent an important category of resources that could be utilized to produce biofuels. Diversion of the wet waste resources from going through conventional waste management practices to utilization as feedstocks for energy production also benefits from avoided cost and pollutant emissions of waste management and disposal. This study investigates the economic and environmental implications of producing bio-blendstocks for mixing controlled compression ignition (MCCI) engines from two waste-to-fuel pathways: hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) from yellow grease, and swine manure hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) followed by biocrude upgrading. Detailed process models were developed for both pathways, which informed the techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life-cycle analysis (LCA). Conventional swine manure management practice was also modeled in detail as the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario for the swine manure HTL pathway. The estimated minimum fuel selling prices (MFSP) were $4.47/gasoline gallon equivalent (GGE) and $3.57/GGE for the yellow grease to HEFA and swine manure HTL pathways, respectively. The life-cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of the two pathways were 11.2 and -33.3 g CO2e/MJ, respectively, for the yellow grease to HEFA and swine manure HTL pathways. The credits of avoided emissions from conventional swine manure management were the main reason for the negative GHG emissions of the swine manure HTL pathway. The marginal GHG emissions abatement costs were estimated to be $100 – $253/tonne CO2e and $5 – $103/tonne CO2e for the yellow grease HEFA and swine manure HTL pathways, respectively, for a diesel price ranging between $2.0/GGE and $3.5/GGE. Since the yellow grease HEFA pathway is already commercialized, it can benefit from the $200/tonne carbon credit in the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) market, which could help the yellow grease HEFA pathway to achieve near-zero marginal GHG emissions abatement cost.

renewable diesel, techno economic analysis, life c↗

A stochastic techno-economic analysis of shrub willow production using EcoWillow 3.0S: A Stochastic Techno-Economic Analysis of Shrub Willow Production Using EcoWillow 3.0S

EcoWillow 3.0S is a techno-economic analysis (TEA) tool that calculates realistic willow biomass production costs using data from field trials of willow production in New York State. The model represents the input parameters for diesel fuel price, wood price, and willow yield as data-derived probability distributions rather than as single values. This study uses EcoWillow 3.0S with Oracle Crystal Ball to perform a stochastic TEA of shrub willow production in the Northeastern United States. Two outputs obtained from this model are a 24-year net present value (NPV) and minimum selling price (MSP) of shrub willow production under price and yield uncertainty. The MSP for dry willow ranges within a 95% confidence interval from $\$ 59$. -$\$ 102$/Mg. The NPV, also within a 95% confidence interval, ranges from -$\$ 153$ 819 to $\$ 207$ 129 for 40 ha of willow harvested seven times over 24 years. The relevance of this study is to utilize the TEA methodology to assess the financial feasibility of shrub willow production as a bioenergy feedstock. The results of this analysis provide the bioenergy field with NPV and MSP probability distributions on shrub willow production that have previously been absent from the refereed literature. Using data collected from field operations over a number of years, EcoWillow 3.0S captures some of the key inputs that influence the variation in the delivered cost of willow biomass crops.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

PCI analysis of a commercial PWR using BISON fuel performance code

Through the early 2000’s, nuclear fuel cladding failure resulting from pellet-cladding interaction in commercial pressurized water reactor fuel was managed successfully by incorporating power ramp restrictions. Within the past decade, however, cladding failures have again begun to appear, often correlated to missing pellet surface defects, and further aggravated by modern reactor operating strategies demanding higher fuel duty operations. In response, renewed efforts in fuel behavior modeling and simulation are being pursued to improve our understanding of the conditions that can lead to missing pellet surface related cladding failure. This paper describes a methodology used to model pellet-cladding interaction related failures observed in commercial pressurized water reactors using the BISON fuel performance code developed at Idaho National Laboratory. In order to accomplish this goal, a three-step process is followed: 1) A failure-stress threshold is developed by using BISON code to model ramp test with known pellet-clad interaction related failures, 2) BISON analysis is applied to a commercial pressurized water reactor cycle startup with one rod confirmed to contain a missing pellet surface defect, and 3) an missing pellet surface sensitivity study of a cycle startup of the same commercial pressurized water reactor which contained a failed fuel rod of un-identified type. The analysis results described in this paper serve to illustrate the BISON code capabilities for modeling pressurized water reactor fuel subjected to higher duty power events.

Nuclear Science & Technology↗

Appalachian Basin Play Fairway Analysis: Thermal Quality Analysis in Low-Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis (GPFA-AB)

This collection of files are part of a larger dataset uploaded in support of Low Temperature Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis for the Appalachian Basin (GPFA-AB). Phase 1 of the GPFA-AB project identified potential Geothermal Play Fairways within the Appalachian basin of Pennsylvania, West Virginia and New York. This was accomplished through analysis of 4 key criteria: thermal quality, natural reservoir productivity, risk of seismicity, and heat utilization. Each of these analyses represent a distinct project task, with the fifth task encompassing combination of the 4 risks factors. Supporting data for all five tasks has been uploaded into the Geothermal Data Repository node of the National Geothermal Data System (NGDS). This submission comprises the data for Thermal Quality Analysis (project task 1) and includes all of the necessary shapefiles, rasters, datasets, code, and references to code repositories that were used to create the thermal resource and risk factor maps as part of the GPFA-AB project. The identified Geothermal Play Fairways are also provided with the larger dataset. Figures (.png) are provided as examples of the shapefiles and rasters. The regional standardized 1 square km grid used in the project is also provided as points (cell centers), polygons, and as a raster. Two ArcGIS toolboxes are available: 1) RegionalGridModels.tbx for creating resource and risk factor maps on the standardized grid, and 2) ThermalRiskFactorModels.tbx for use in making the thermal resource maps and cross sections. These toolboxes contain item description documentation for each model within the toolbox, and for the toolbox itself. This submission also contains three R scripts: 1) AddNewSeisFields.R to add seismic risk data to attribute tables of seismic risk, 2) StratifiedKrigingInterpolation.R for the interpolations used in the thermal resource analysis, and 3) LeaveOneOutCrossValidation.R for the cross validations used in the thermal interpolations. Some file descriptions make reference to various 'memos'. These are contained within the final report submitted October 16, 2015. Each zipped file in the submission contains an 'about' document describing the full Thermal Quality Analysis content available, along with key sources, authors, citation, use guidelines, and assumptions, with the specific file(s) contained within the .zip file highlighted. UPDATE: Newer version of the Thermal Quality Analysis has been added here: https://gdr.openei.org/submissions/879 (Also linked below) Newer version of the Combined Risk Factor Analysis has been added here: https://gdr.openei.org/submissions/880 (Also linked below)

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Long‐Term Large‐Scale Atmospheric Forcing Data From Three‐Dimensional Constrained Variational Analysis for the ARM SGP Site

Here, this study presents a long‐term three‐dimensional large‐scale forcing data set (VARANAL3D) derived from the three‐dimensional constrained variational analysis (3DCVA) method at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site from 2004 to 2018. Building on the same input data sets as the conventional continuous forcing data set (VARANAL), VARANAL3D maintains overall consistency in domain‐averaged fields while introducing spatial variability, offering critical insights into the influence of mesoscale synoptic systems on cloud‐related processes. Evaluations are conducted across four cloud and precipitation regimes: Clear‐sky, Shallow‐clouds, Afternoon‐precipitation, and Nocturnal‐precipitation, presenting high consistency of the domain‐mean forcing data sets while emphasizing the role of subdomain forcing variability particularly in precipitating regimes. Single column model (SCM) simulations demonstrate that subdomain VARANAL3D forcing improves cloud and precipitation representation, with the ensemble outperforming domain‐mean forcing in three cloudy and precipitating regimes. Overall, these results highlight VARANAL3D's value for investigating the impacts of spatial variability of large‐scale forcing on atmospheric processes. The VARANAL3D data set provides new opportunities for evaluating model physics, advancing the development of scale‐aware parameterizations and deepening our understanding of cloud and precipitation dynamics.

Environmental sciences↗

Axion dark matter experiment: Run 1B analysis details

Searching for axion dark matter, the ADMX Collaboration acquired data from January to October 2018, over the mass range 2.81–3.31 μeV, corresponding to the frequency range 680–790 MHz. Using an axion haloscope consisting of a microwave cavity in a strong magnetic field, the ADMX experiment excluded Dine-Fischler-Srednicki-Zhitnisky (DFSZ) axions at 90% confidence level and 100% dark matter density over this entire frequency range, except for a few gaps due to mode crossings. This paper explains the full ADMX analysis for run 1B, motivating analysis choices informed by details specific to this run.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗