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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Alternative Technologies Meta Study Report

Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) was tasked to conduct a meta-study to assess peer-reviewed published, in-vivo murine, radiation biology studies that utilize X-ray irradiators. The study is intended to support a more general effort to facilitate the adoption of X-ray technologies to identify best practices that can be implemented by potential adopters, or those who are still unfamiliar with X-ray technology. The meta-study identified over 450 published papers in the last four years (September 2017 through August 2021). The review builds upon the more extensive meta-study published by the Draeger Report (June 2019) and facilitates a more recent assessment of methodological practices in the use of X-ray irradiators.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2022

Alternative Technologies Adopters Outreach Survey Report

Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), in collaboration with Ioanna Iliopulos and Christopher Boyd (independent contractors), conducted quantitative and qualitative surveys to document views and opinions of scientists and researchers with firsthand experience operating x-ray devices for a wide range of research applications. The goal of the study was to fill critical information gaps and identify misconceptions widely held among the research community regarding the transition from Cesium-137 irradiators to x-ray devices. The survey instrument focused on three distinct yet interrelated areas that impact users' experience: operational impacts, including infrastructure needs, workflow, personnel management, and training, and regulatory compliance; research design and investigation impacts, including calibration, dosimetry, continuity of previous studies, development of new research agendas, and the outcomes for both; and funding impacts, specifically how grant sources and opportunities have responded to the transition.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

A model for selecting the best sustainable airport technology alternatives

Air transport is a continually expanding industry, a fact that has become even more evident with the recovery of the aviation industry post-COVID-19. This expansion amplified energy consumption at airports, which was already significantly high. Airport decision-makers are increasingly focusing on improving sustainability and addressing social, economic, and environmental criteria across airports worldwide. In this article, we propose a decision-making model for identifying a sustainable airport technology solution that minimizes the energy consumption of airport lighting while considering economic, emission, and life-cycle criteria. The proposed model combines data envelopment analysis and multi-criteria decision making techniques. We applied the model to the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) as a case study, considering eight lighting technology solutions, each with five luminous flux alternatives. Our model identified the best lighting technology solution for DFW outdoor and indoor environments based on the following criteria: luminous flux, capital costs, life-cycle costs, energy consumption, and emissions (CO2e, NOx, SO2, and PM2.5). The designed model is customizable to any airport and is applicable to a wide range of airport lighting technologies. In our analysis, Light-Emitting Diode lighting emerged as the most sustainable technology option. It ranked first in most cases due to its balance of high efficacy, long lifespan, low life-cycle cost, low capital cost, and lower emissions across all pollutants.

Tchivwila, Moise B↗
DOE OSTI2025

Supply Chain Energy and Greenhouse Gas Analysis Using the Materials Flows Through Industry (MFI) Tool: Examination of Alternative Technology Scenarios for the U.S. Chemical Sector

Chemical manufacturing is a large and diverse sector of the U.S. economy, with products, fuels, and a wide assortment of materials used daily by both the public and businesses. Currently, several of the largest volume chemicals produced in the United States rely on fossil fuels as a feedstock, energy source, or both. The list of chemicals includes steam cracking products such as ethylene, propylene, benzene, and xylenes as well as products such as ammonia and methanol. The focus for this work is on platform chemicals that are both produced in the largest volume and have a high potential for subsequent processing into more specialized products. In this study, we explore several new pathways that reduce the overall energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for each product. These pathways include energy efficiency measures applied to existing production methods, the use of bio‐based fuels and/or feedstocks as new production methods, and electrification of high‐energy‐input stages within current production methods. Scenarios for energy demand and GHG reduction were conducted with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Materials Flows through Industry tool. Projections of the energy demand and GHG emissions in 2030 and 2050 are included, using grid composition projections from the NREL ReEDS model. The alternative scenarios selected showcase the effect of realistic changes the industry could make, focusing on technologies with a high level of technical readiness.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Seismic Resilience of Large Power Transformer Bushings & Non-SF6 Industrial Base Scan Review

Large (high voltage) power transformers (LPT), and more specifically, their bushings, are known to be susceptible to seismic failure. With bushing failure, a transformer will have to be replaced, which has a considerable lead time, adding to the power outage duration. Cost-efficient, proven solutions are not currently available to mitigate this risk, which can persist for the more than 30-year life of a particular transformer. This work will focus on developing and demonstrating a hardware solution to address seismic vulnerabilities and reduce outage risks from LPT failure. Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF6) is a specialty gas with excellent electrical insulation properties which has been used extensively in the power industry. This gas is unfortunately also one of the most potent greenhouse gases known to humanity. A 2014 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that SF6 has a global warming potential (GWP) 23,000 times higher than Carbon Dioxide, and has the highest GWP of all gases assessed (Myhre 2013). SF6 is almost exclusively man-made and is produced for use as an insulator in high voltage electrical equipment. This makes the production and use of SF6 one of the leading sources of anthropogenic climate change. To fully eliminate the environmental impacts of SF6, alternative technology is needed. The ideal replacement would be a technology that can fulfil the same role as SF6, at the same cost or cheaper, but without adverse environmental effects. Currently, no technology fits this description, however several promising technologies have begun to enter the market. An industry scan was performed to assess the state of industry adoption and manufacturing capability for SF6-free alternative technologies for use at the high-voltage level, and the primary barriers to broader adoption.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigation of Ammonia Carrier Materials for Next Generation Ammonia Dosing System - CRADA 334 (Abstract)

Lean-burn gasoline and diesel engines can offer substantially higher fuel efficiency, good driving performance, and reduced carbon dioxide emission compared to stoichiometric gasoline engines. Various catalyst technologies have been developed to remove the pollutants from these engines. For example, a three-way catalyst (TWC) is used to remove hydrocarbons (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen oxides (NOx) from gasoline engines during the stoichiometric conditions. During the lean-burn conditions, a TWC or a diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC) is used to control HC and CO emissions. NOx is removed by either lean NOx trap catalyst (LNT) that can store NOx under lean conditions and reduce NOx under rich conditions, or selective catalytic reduction catalyst (SCR) that can selectively remove NOx with a reducing agent. Among the NOx reduction catalyst technologies, SCR offers a number of advantages, including excellent NOx reduction efficiency over a wide range of temperatures and overall lower system cost. In fact, the SCR technology using ammonia (NH3) as reductant has been proven effective and used commercially for the removal of NOx emissions from stationary sources since the 1970s. Currently, SCR is being used to meet the NOx emission standards for diesel engines in Europe and North America, and also being considered for meeting the future NOx emission standards for lean-burn gasoline engines. Because of the challenges associated with storage, handling and transportation of ammonia on a vehicle, aqueous urea solution (e.g., Diesel Exhaust Fluid, AdBlue) has been developed as ammonia storage compound for mobile applications. When the aqueous urea solution is sprayed into exhaust gas stream, urea is decomposed to release ammonia, which then reduces NOx over the downstream SCR catalyst. Although aqueous urea solution technology has enabled automakers and engine manufacturers to meet the current NOx emission standards, this process of releasing ammonia requires a hot exhaust gas and sufficient mixing, creating challenges for low temperature NOx emission control and aftertreatment system packaging. For these reasons, alternative technologies have been developed as ammonia sources (e.g., solid urea, ammonium carbamate, metal ammine chloride) during the past few years. These technologies promise more convenient handling and distribution of ammonia sources, and help maximize the low-temperature performance of SCR catalysts and reduce the overall system volume and weight. However, none of these alternative technologies can be successfully implemented without the industry consensus. Therefore, the USCAR SCR work group, which is comprised of representatives from GM, Ford, and Chrysler, has decided to investigate the potential alternative ammonia carriers, define common standard vehicle interfaces, and address personal and environmental safety concerns with part suppliers and chemical companies. Under this CRADA Project, USCAR and Battelle will investigate alternative ammonia carrier materials that are currently under development. Based on the data and information derived under the CRADA project, the USCAR SCR work group plans to build the consensus and make recommendations for the industry.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Investigation of Ammonia Carrier Materials for Next Generation Ammonia Dosing System - CRADA 334 (Abstract)

Lean-burn gasoline and diesel engines can offer substantially higher fuel efficiency, good driving performance, and reduced carbon dioxide emission compared to stoichiometric gasoline engines. Various catalyst technologies have been developed to remove the pollutants from these engines. For example, a three-way catalyst (TWC) is used to remove hydrocarbons (HC), carbon monoxide (CO), and nitrogen oxides (NOx) from gasoline engines during the stoichiometric conditions. During the lean-burn conditions, a TWC or a diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC) is used to control HC and CO emissions. NOx is removed by either lean NOx trap catalyst (LNT) that can store NOx under lean conditions and reduce NOx under rich conditions, or selective catalytic reduction catalyst (SCR) that can selectively remove NOx with a reducing agent. Among the NOx reduction catalyst technologies, SCR offers a number of advantages, including excellent NOx reduction efficiency over a wide range of temperatures and overall lower system cost. In fact, the SCR technology using ammonia (NH3) as reductant has been proven effective and used commercially for the removal of NOx emissions from stationary sources since the 1970s. Currently, SCR is being used to meet the NOx emission standards for diesel engines in Europe and North America, and also being considered for meeting the future NOx emission standards for lean-burn gasoline engines. Because of the challenges associated with storage, handling and transportation of ammonia on a vehicle, aqueous urea solution (e.g., Diesel Exhaust Fluid, AdBlue) has been developed as ammonia storage compound for mobile applications. When the aqueous urea solution is sprayed into exhaust gas stream, urea is decomposed to release ammonia, which then reduces NOx over the downstream SCR catalyst. Although aqueous urea solution technology has enabled automakers and engine manufacturers to meet the current NOx emission standards, this process of releasing ammonia requires a hot exhaust gas and sufficient mixing, creating challenges for low temperature NOx emission control and aftertreatment system packaging. For these reasons, alternative technologies have been developed as ammonia sources (e.g., solid urea, ammonium carbamate, metal ammine chloride) during the past few years. These technologies promise more convenient handling and distribution of ammonia sources, and help maximize the low-temperature performance of SCR catalysts and reduce the overall system volume and weight. However, none of these alternative technologies can be successfully implemented without the industry consensus. Therefore, the USCAR SCR work group, which is comprised of representatives from GM, Ford, and Chrysler, has decided to investigate the potential alternative ammonia carriers, define common standard vehicle interfaces, and address personal and environmental safety concerns with part suppliers and chemical companies. Under this CRADA Project, USCAR and Battelle will investigate alternative ammonia carrier materials that are currently under development. Based on the data and information derived under the CRADA project, the USCAR SCR work group plans to build the consensus and make recommendations for the industry.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Industry Scan of Non-SF6 Gas-Insulated Technologies

Sulfur Hexafluoride (SF 6 ) is a specialty gas with excellent electrical insulation properties which has been used extensively in the power industry. This gas is unfortunately also one of the most potent greenhouse gases known to humanity. A 2014 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change found that SF 6 has a global warming potential (GWP) 23,000 times higher than Carbon Dioxide, and has the highest GWP of all gases assessed (Myhre 2013). SF 6 is almost exclusively man-made and is produced for use as an insulator in high voltage electrical equipment. This makes the production and use of SF 6 one of the leading sources of anthropogenic climate change. Since SF 6 recognition as a significant contributor to climate change, most governments and organizations have sought ways to reduce or eliminate their use of this gas. Many utilities have initiated leak monitoring and repair programs which have significantly reduced emissions of this gas into the atmosphere. While leak reduction programs have been effective at reducing emission rates in the developed world, leak rates remain frozen at ~1% annually. However, one of the largest and fastest growing markets for this gas is in the developing world where emissions standards are often lacking (P&S Intelligence. 2023). To fully eliminate the environmental impacts of SF 6 , alternative technology is needed. The ideal replacement would be a technology that can fulfil the same role as SF 6 , at the same cost or cheaper, but without adverse environmental effects. Currently, no technology fits this description, however several promising technologies have begun to enter the market. This report was commissioned by the United States Department of Energy’s Office of Electricity under the Transformer Resilience and Advanced Components (TRAC) program to assess the state of industry adoption and manufacturing capability for SF 6 -free alternative technologies for use at the high-voltage level, and the primary barriers to broader adoption. While this report is tailored to the United States, the findings should be relevant to all stakeholders seeking to reduce SF 6 emissions.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-Field Design Concept for Second Interaction Region of the Electron-Ion Collider

Efficient realization of the scientific potential of the Electron Ion Collider (EIC) calls for addition of a future second Interaction Region (2nd IR) and a detector in the RHIC IR8 region after the EIC project completion. The second IR and detector are needed to independently cross-check the results of the first detector, and to provide measurements with complementary acceptance. The available space in the existing RHIC IR8 and maximum fields achievable with NbTi superconducting magnet technology impose constraints on the 2nd IR performance. Since commissioning of the 2nd IR is envisioned in a few years after the first IR, such a long time frame allows for more R&D on the Nb₃Sn magnet technology. Thus, it could provide a potential alternative technology choice for the 2nd IR magnets. Presently, we are exploring its potential benefits for the 2nd IR performance, such as improvement of the luminosity and acceptance, and are also assessing the technical risks associated with use of Nb₃Sn magnets. In this paper, we present the current progress of this work.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Demonstration of a Continuous Motion Direct Air Capture System

Global Thermostat (GT) has developed a process that addresses the primary technical challenges associated with direct air capture (DAC): the ability to process enormous volumetric flowrates of air and provide the energy for regeneration at acceptable cost. However, at current, there is opportunity for improvement in overall capture costs and especially in capital costs. While GT has advanced its base technology to TRL levels supporting commercial deployments, its research strategy includes alternative technology embodiments that enable substantial reductions in the cost per tonne of CO 2 removed. The objective of this project is to advance the most promising of these embodiments, where a DAC plant is operated in a continuous fashion rather than a discrete stepwise fashion (GT’s commercial scale technology approach). The Continuous Motion Direct Air Capture (cDAC) System’s advantages over the GT baseline stepwise DAC platform have been proposed primarily as a reduction in the complexity required for starting and stopping a movement system, relaxing requirements for other components designed for a rapid switching application, and a flattening of the sharp instantaneous fluid flowrates into steady-state mass & energy flows to enable smoother operation and easier heat integration. These advantages can lead to shorter cycle times, greater plant reliability, and lower capital expense. The primary objective of this project is the design, construction, commissioning, and operation of a field-test unit (FTU) at a scale in the range of ~200 tons CO 2 per year. Data generated from the operation campaign would then be used in a prescreening techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life cycle analysis (LCA), allowing this process to be compared to other carbon capture technologies.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

To grind or not to grind? The influence of mechanical and thermal treatments on the $\mathrm{Cu/Zn}$ disorder in $\mathrm{Cu}$ 2 $\mathrm{ZnSn}$($\mathrm{S}$ x $\mathrm{Se}$ 1-x ) 4 monograins

We report that Kesterite-type based thin film solar cell technologies are mainly based on polycrystalline absorber layers. A promising low cost alternative technology uses Cu 2 ZnSn(S x Se 1-x ) 4 (CZTSSe) monograins (single crystals of 20–100 μm size) which are fixed in a polymer matrix to form a flexible solar cell. The Cu/Zn disorder is discussed as a possible reason for band tailing causing voltage losses limiting the efficiency of CZTSSe-based devices. The experimental determination of the order parameter Q which is a quantitative measure of Cu/Zn disorder, requires a differentiation between the isoelectronic cations Cu + and Zn 2+ . An in-depth analysis of neutron diffraction data allows the determination of type and concentration of intrinsic point defects including a distinction between Cu and Zn. Neutron diffraction requires large sample volumes, thus monograins offer the unique possibility to correlate structural disorder in CZTSSe with device performance parameters. In this study we tackle the influence of grinding the monograins on stoichiometry deviations, the Cu/Zn disorder as well as intrinsic point defects and optoelectronic properties of CZTSSe monograins. Moreover, an easy methodology based on Raman scattering spectroscopy is proposed for the assessment of Cu/Zn disorder in the CZTSSe compounds.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hydrogen Energy Storage Integrated with a Combined Cycle Plant

A project is being developed that will build upon the existing infrastructure and resources at the Intermountain Power Project (IPP) site to provide reliable, dispatchable energy and to support the transmission of renewable energy resources while transitioning to an economical green energy future. The concept study depicted in this report outlines a techno-economic optimization to fulfill the demand for 30% vol hydrogen co-firing in the IPP 840 MW advanced class combined cycle power plant. In an initial step, a site assessment concluded the site has sufficient land available to co-locate a hydrogen production and storage facility. The team evaluated and defined a scalable concept that considered technology characteristics, including input and output models to be used for optimization purposes. The concept for the hydrogen production and storage system integrates multiple technologies, to determine system size and scalable approach, for each of the technologies evaluated, the team defined component and subcomponent sizes, minimum and maximum capacity, modularity, component utility consumption (electric, water), component flexibility and servicing, layout, and technology status, as well as technology alternatives. For hydrogen generation, the project considers Siemens Energy’s Silyzer-300 (S300) technology, a 17.5 MW modular Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) electrolyzer. For the S300 configuration, the team determined that three S300 arrays, or approximately 1,000 kg/hr, per block would yield a compact block design. This configuration results in a fairly wide and flexible arrangement that fits well into the spaces available at the site. Therefore, the overall design approach is based on multiple identical blocks of 3 arrays to minimize engineering cost and optimize constructability. In parallel, a transmission screening study was conducted to determine any potential transmission constraints from the energy sources that could feed the hydrogen production equipment. The study results show that minimum transmission constraints would be encountered to deliver 400 MW renewable generation from southern California, or south-central Wyoming. At last, the techno-economic analysis concluded that a scenario that uses solar and wind power yields the lowest levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH 2 ) production and the lowest cost per tonne of CO 2 reduced. In this optimized scenario, the hydrogen production plant was determined as 6,201 kg/hr and the hydrogen storage (underground cavern) was determined as 4,600 tonnes. The resulting capacity factor for the hydrogen production plant was 66.33% with 8,745 operating hours in one year. This techno-economic analysis provided various options for integrating hydrogen storage at the Intermountain Power Plant site to co-fire the CCPP units. The results provide insightful data about the magnitude of capacity needed and the economics of producing hydrogen and reducing CO 2 emissions.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ocean Energy: Markets - Currency - Impact. Dimension of & Choices in the Technology Development Space: Preprint

This paper presents considerations of the employment of ocean wave energy to support different energy demand side applications. The key aspect in these considerations is the wave energy supported achievable positive impact and associated tangible contribution in service of common societal good and of the natural commons. The level of impact that can be delivered is dependent on both, the level of contribution of the supported energy use application, and the compatibility and unique suitability of the wave energy resource and its characteristics with the needs of the application. Thus, a variety of ocean wave energy markets, the key value indicators or "currency' in which these markets trade the value delivered and the achievable positive impact, are reflected upon. Ocean wave energy supported acquisition of high quality ocean system data across a wide spectrum of system properties is identified as a highly impactful application enabling and/or improving a comprehensive range of impactful ocean system activities. The technology development process towards these markets and desired impacts requires relevant technology development progress guidance and metrics. Going beyond technology readiness levels and technology performance levels, the notion of further technology development progress scales towards high impact and high contribution are proposed. These scales and the associated technology properties can be regarded as additional technology development dimensions to span-up the technology development space in which desired system capability and functional requirement choices and subsequent ideation, innovation, research and technology development decisions can and are to be made.

data market↗
DOE OSTI2024

Solar Energy Technical Publications Catalog: Solar Thermal Technology

The research and development described in these documents was conducted within the U.S . Department of Energy's (DOE) Solar Thermal Technology Program. The goal of this program is to advance the engineering and scientific understanding of solar thermal technology and to establish the technology base from which private industry can develop solar thermal power production options for introduction into the competitive energy market. Solar thermal technology concentrates the solar flux using tracking mirrors or lenses onto a receiver where the solar energy is absorbed as heat and converted into electricity or incorporated into products as process heat. The two primary solar thermal technologies, central receivers and distributed receivers, employ various point and line-focus optics to concentrate sunlight. Current central receiver systems use fields of heliostats (two-axis tracking mirrors) to focus the sun's radiant energy onto a single, tower- mounted receiver. Point focus concentrators up to 17 meters in diameter track the sun in two axes and use parabolic dish mirrors or Fresnel lenses to focus radiant energy onto a receiver. Troughs and bowls are line-focus tracking reflectors that concentrate sunlight onto receiver tubes along their focal lines. Concentrating collector modules can be used alone or in a multimodule system. The concentrated radiant energy absorbed by the solar thermal receiver is transported to the conversion process by a circulating work fluid. Receiver temperatures range from l00 degrees C in low-temperature troughs to over 1500 degrees C in dish and central receiver systems. The Solar Thermal Technology Program is directing efforts to advance and improve each system concept through solar thermal materials, components, and subsystems research and development and by testing and evaluation. These efforts are carried out with the technical direction of DOE and its network of field laboratories that works with private industry. Together they have established a comprehensive, goal-directed program to improve performance and provide technically proven options for eventual incorporation into the nation's energy supply. To successfully contribute to an adequate energy supply at reasonable cost, solar thermal energy must be economically competitive with a variety of other energy sources. The Solar Thermal Technology Program has developed components and system-level performance targets as quantitative program goals. These targets are used in planning research and development activities, measuring progress, assessing alternative technology options, and developing optimal components. These targets are pursued vigorously to ensure a successful program. This catalog represents part of an effort to provide information on publications about solar thermal research and development activities conducted by DOE's laboratories. Publications listed include technical and research reports and special publications. The following national laboratories are represented in this edition: Sandia National Laboratories, Solar Energy Research Institute, Jet Propulsion Laboratory. This catalog is a product of the DOE Solar Technical Information Program, which is dedicated to providing information to scientific and industrial users in ways most convenient and useful to them. This catalog focuses on solar thermal technologies, and its purpose is to keep the scientific and industrial communities informed of the latest developments in federally sponsored research in this technology.

140000* -- Solar Energy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recommendations for harmonized reporting of radiation Dosimetry by adoption of Compatibility in Irradiation Research Protocols Expert Roundtable (CIRPER)

Here, in radiobiology, radiation physics, and related areas, there is growing interest in transitioning from cesium-based irradiators to X-ray technologies. Therefore, it makes it imperative for reproducibility purposes, for researchers to provide specifications regarding device parameters, machine calibration details, and experimental setup when innovative X-ray technology is being employed. Several groups have already identified a glaring lack in completeness of critical information on experimental setups, equipment, and physical parameters in published radiation biology studies. The Alternative Technologies Meta Study Report by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) examined 456 manuscripts published between 2017-2021. Only 64 of the reviewed studies (14.0%) consistently reported methods that could allow for replication of their studies. However, 85% provided information on the manufacturer, the irradiator model and the absorbed radiation dose. Approximately 66% provided information on the energy spectra and the dose rate, but only one third disclosed the filter used. Less than 15% of the reviewed studies reported information on calibration and field geometry, specifically field size and distance from source, which are critical parameters in determining the absorbed radiation dose.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Health and air pollutant emission impacts of net zero CO2 by 2050 scenarios from the energy modeling forum 37 study

Carbon dioxide and non-greenhouse gas air pollutants are emitted from many of the same sources. Decarbonization actions thus typically yield air pollutant emission reductions, resulting in significant air quality benefits. Although several studies have highlighted this connection, including in the context of net zero carbon emission targets, substantial uncertainty remains regarding how alternative technological pathways to this goal will affect the spatial distribution and magnitude of air pollutants. Comprehensive multi-model and multi-scenario analyzes are needed to explore the relative impacts of alternative pathways. Here, our study begins to address this gap by leveraging the results from the recent Energy Modeling Forum 37 inter-model comparison exercise on U.S. decarbonization pathways. Comparing the results of the six teams who submitted air pollutant emissions suggests that strategies that target net zero U.S. carbon emissions would yield significant reductions in many air pollutants, and that this finding is generally robust across pathways. However, some energy sources, such as biomass and fossil fuels with carbon capture, will emit air pollutants and can potentially influence the magnitude, spatial distribution, and even sign of localized air pollutant emission changes. In the second part of this analysis, a simplified air quality and health impacts screening model is used to evaluate the air quality impacts in 2035 of sectoral emission changes from the three models that provided sectoral detail. Relative to a reference scenario, a net zero pathway is estimated to reduce fine particulate matter concentrations across the contiguous U.S., with health benefits from reduced mortality ranging from $\$$65 billion to $\$$250 billion in 2035 alone (2023$\$$s). These benefits would be expected to grow over time as the net zero trajectory becomes more stringent. Both the magnitude of potential benefits and the substantial variation of the projections across models underscore the need for an EMF-like inter-model comparison exercise focused on air quality.

Air pollutants↗