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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

National summary for agricultural crops and residues, 2041

This dataset contains national summary data on agricultural crop and residue production, which include agricultural crop, agricultural residue, herbaceous energy crop, and woody energy crop. Each tab in the Excel file contains information corresponding to a resource category, and within each tab, there is a structured table presenting resource production (in dry short ton) by offered price (in USD per dry short ton) across multiple scenarios (mature-market low, mature-market medium, and mature-market high). Consistent with the 2023 Billion-Ton report for agricultural resources, these scenarios represent potential production scenarios for 2041. List of the resources shown in this dataset: - Agricultural crop: Barley, Corn, Cotton, Grain sorghum, Hay, Oats, Rice, Soybeans, Wheat - Agricultural residue: Barley straw, Corn stover, Oats straw, Sorghum stubble, Wheat straw - Herbaceous energy crop: Biomass sorghum, Energy cane, Miscanthus, Switchgrass - Woody energy crop: Eucalyptus, Pine, Poplar, Willow

agricultural crop↗
DOE OSTI2026

Agricultural crop production by county - mature-market medium scenario

This dataset contains data on agricultural crop production by county from 2022 to 2041. The agricultural crop in this dataset includes barley, biomass sorghum, corn, cotton, energy cane, eucalyptus, grain sorghum, hay, miscanthus, oats, pine, poplar, rice, soybean, switchgrass, wheat, and willow. The dataset was obtained from the database of the BT23 (Davis et al., 2024) for the mature-market medium scenario with biomass market prices from $30 to $130 per dry ton.

agricultural crop↗
DOE OSTI2025

Agricultural crop and residue production by county - near-term scenario

This dataset contains data on agricultural crop and residue production by county in 2030. The agricultural crops in this dataset include barley, corn, cotton, grain sorghum, hay, oats, rice, soybeans, and wheat. The agricultural residues include barley straw, corn stover, oats straw, sorghum stubble, and wheat straw. The dataset was obtained from the database of the BT23 (Davis et al.,2024) for the near-term scenario with biomass market prices of up to $70 per dry ton.

agricultural crop↗
DOE OSTI2025

AmeriFlux CA-TPA Ontario Turkey Point Observatory Agricultural Site

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-TPA Ontario Turkey Point Observatory Agricultural Site. Site Description - This agricultural flux tower site is located about 15 km southwest of Simcoe in southern Ontario, Canada. It was planted with corn (Zea mays) in 2020 and 2021, sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas) in 2022 and tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum) in 2023. The site is part of Turkey Point Environmental Observatory (TPEO). The establishment of the agricultural site has allowed TPEO to become representative of the major biomes in the Great Lakes region, encompassing coniferous and deciduous forests, as well as agricultural crops. The soil at this agricultural site is well-drained fine sandy loam. The area has a humid continental climate and has one of the longest-growing seasons in Canada with at least 150–160 frost-free days in a year.

Arain, M. Altaf [McMaster University]↗
DOE OSTI2026

AmeriFlux FLUXNET-1F CA-TPA Ontario Turkey Point Observatory Agricultural Site

This is the AmeriFlux Management Project (AMP) created FLUXNET-1F version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-TPA Ontario Turkey Point Observatory Agricultural Site. This is the FLUXNET version of the carbon flux data for the site CA-TPA Ontario Turkey Point Observatory Agricultural Site produced by applying the standard ONEFlux (1F) software. Site Description - This agricultural flux tower site is located about 15 km southwest of Simcoe in southern Ontario, Canada. It was planted with corn (Zea mays) in 2020 and 2021, sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas) in 2022 and tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum) in 2023. The site is part of Turkey Point Environmental Observatory (TPEO). The establishment of the agricultural site has allowed TPEO to become representative of the major biomes in the Great Lakes region, encompassing coniferous and deciduous forests, as well as agricultural crops. The soil at this agricultural site is well-drained fine sandy loam. The area has a humid continental climate and has one of the longest-growing seasons in Canada with at least 150–160 frost-free days in a year.

Arain, M. Altaf [McMaster University]↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nitrogen-Fixing Gamma Proteobacteria Azotobacter vinelandii—A Blueprint for Nitrogen-Fixing Plants?

The availability of fixed nitrogen limits overall agricultural crop production worldwide. The so-called modern “green revolution” catalyzed by the widespread application of nitrogenous fertilizer has propelled global population growth. It has led to imbalances in global biogeochemical nitrogen cycling, resulting in a “nitrogen problem” that is growing at a similar trajectory to the “carbon problem”. As a result of the increasing imbalances in nitrogen cycling and additional environmental problems such as soil acidification, there is renewed and increasing interest in increasing the contributions of biological nitrogen fixation to reduce the inputs of nitrogenous fertilizers in agriculture. Interestingly, biological nitrogen fixation, or life’s ability to convert atmospheric dinitrogen to ammonia, is restricted to microbial life and not associated with any known eukaryotes. It is not clear why plants never evolved the ability to fix nitrogen and rather form associations with nitrogen-fixing microorganisms. Perhaps it is because of the large energy demand of the process, the oxygen sensitivity of the enzymatic apparatus, or simply failure to encounter the appropriate selective pressure. Whatever the reason, it is clear that this ability of crop plants, especially cereals, would transform modern agriculture once again. Successfully engineering plants will require creating an oxygen-free niche that can supply ample energy in a tightly regulated manner to minimize energy waste and ensure the ammonia produced is assimilated. Nitrogen-fixing aerobic bacteria can perhaps provide a blueprint for engineering nitrogen-fixing plants. This short review discusses the key features of robust nitrogen fixation in the model nitrogen-fixing aerobe, gamma proteobacteria Azotobacter vinelandii, in the context of the basic requirements for engineering nitrogen-fixing plants.

Microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2025

From subsidies to stressors: Positively skewed ecological gradients alter biological responses to nutrients in streams

Abstract Subsidy–stress gradients offer a useful framework for understanding ecological responses to perturbation and may help inform ecological metrics in highly modified systems. Historic, region‐wide shifts from bottomland hardwood forest to row crop agriculture can cause positively skewed impact gradients in alluvial plain ecoregions, resulting in tolerant organisms that typically exhibit a subsidy response (increased abundance in response to environmental stressors) shifting to a stress response (declining abundance at higher concentrations). As a result, observed biological tolerance in modified ecosystems may differ from less modified regions, creating significant challenges for detecting biological responses to restoration efforts. Using the agriculturally dominated Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP) ecoregion in Mississippi, USA, as a case study, we tested the hypothesis that macroinvertebrate taxa that typically display a subsidy response to nutrient enrichment in less modified ecoregions (i.e., nutrient‐tolerance) shift to a stress response to increasing nutrients in highly modified watersheds with elevated baseline nutrient conditions (i.e., nutrient intolerance). The abundance and diversity of MAP‐specific intolerant taxa identified with threshold indicator taxa analysis were either unresponsive or exhibited a subsidy response to increasing nutrients in less modified ecoregions in Mississippi with less land alteration and lower nutrient concentrations, but declined at higher concentrations, providing evidence for a stress response to elevated nutrients in the MAP. Additionally, MAP‐specific tolerant and intolerant taxa richness responded to increased nutrients predictably and consistently across space and time within the MAP. However, in MAP streams, elevated specific conductance was predicted to dampen the response of tolerant and intolerant taxa richness to increasing nutrient concentrations, highlighting the importance of considering multistressor interactions when interpreting biological data. Lastly, we demonstrate the efficacy of this approach with sediment bacterial communities characterized with amplicon sequencing, which lack sufficient life history characteristics necessary for the development of multimetric indices. Both macroinvertebrate and bacterial communities responded similarly to increasing nutrient concentrations, suggesting DNA‐based approaches may provide an efficient biological assessment tool for monitoring water quality improvements in highly modified watersheds.

DeVilbiss, Stephen E. [U.S. Geological Survey Lowe↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ecovoltaic solar energy development can promote grassland bird communities

Ecologically informed photovoltaic (PV) developments that co-prioritize PV electricity generation with ecosystem function (‘ecovoltaics’) have emerged as a promising land sharing strategy to minimize ecological conflicts associated with PV solar energy development. While habitat-focused ecovoltaic designs can conceptually benefit biodiversity by offsetting or enhancing impacts of PV development, foundational field research is needed to examine how wildlife respond to these novel ecosystems. We conducted passive acoustic monitoring (PAM) in 2023 and 2024 at 13 solar facilities and paired control sites to investigate avian community responses to ecovoltaic facilities in the Midwestern United States. Compared to control sites (row crop agricultural fields), we found that ecovoltaic sites supported more grassland bird species throughout a 17-week monitoring period between May and September. Grassland bird communities on ecovoltaic sites were also more stable than on agricultural controls, as measured by the Jaccard dissimilarity index. We also used PAM-based weekly species occurrences in an occupancy-modelling framework to investigate the influence of PV development and other landscape variables on grassland bird occupancy. 10 out of 13 modelled grassland bird species had greater predicted occupancy probabilities (ψ) on PV sites than control sites. Synthesis and applications. Our findings suggest that properly sited and developed ecovoltaic solar facilities in human altered landscapes can improve habitat for birds and other wildlife, but further research is needed to understand which species may benefit most from these novel ecosystems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Engineered Methylobacterium extorquens grows well on methoxylated aromatics due to its formaldehyde metabolism and stress response

ABSTRACT Lignin is a vast yet underutilized source of renewable energy. The microbial valorization of lignin is challenging due to the toxicity of its degradation intermediates, particularly formaldehyde. In this study, we engineeredMethylobacterium extorquensPA1 to metabolize lignin-derived methoxylated aromatics, vanillate (VA) and protocatechuate (PCA), by introducing thevanandpcagene clusters. Compared toPseudomonas putida,M. extorquensPA1 exhibited better formaldehyde detoxification, enabling robust growth on VA without accumulation of formaldehyde. Genetic analyses confirmed that formaldehyde oxidation and stress response systems, rather than C 1 assimilation, were important for VA metabolism. Additionally, VA and PCA were found to disrupt membrane potential, contributing to their inherent toxicity. Our findings establishM. extorquensPA1 as a promising chassis for lignin valorization and provide a framework for engineering formaldehyde-resistant microbial platforms. IMPORTANCE In developing biotechnological solutions for a circular economy, it is critical to valorize all parts of renewable resources, such as lignocellulose from vegetative components of agricultural crops and from bioenergy feedstocks. After chemical breakdown, the aromatics arising from lignin present significant challenges for use due to their toxicity. Here, we address one component of this challenge—the methoxy groups that get released as formaldehyde—and show that existing biotechnological platform organisms with strong formaldehyde metabolism, such asMethylobacterium extorquens, can be transformed into highly capable utilizers of methoxylated aromatics.

Microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-shade dryland agrivoltaic conditions enhanced carbon uptake and water-use efficiency in zucchini ( Cucurbita pepo )

Introduction: The increasing global demand for food and energy is intensifying land-use competition. Agrivoltaic systems are a multifunctional land-use approach that vertically integrates the production of agricultural crops and solar power on the same land area. Most food crops are adapted to full-sun conditions, and the physiological responses of these crops to the novel microclimate under solar panels remain poorly understood. We hypothesized that the microclimate beneath the high-density photovoltaic system would influence carbon uptake, water use, and yield outcomes of zucchini summer squash.Methods: We conducted a field experiment in a hot, semi-arid climate on zucchini (Cucurbita pepo). Plants were grown under an agrivoltaic system with a 75% ground cover ratio (GCR) and in a full-sun control plot, each with two irrigation regimes (100 and 50%). We measured leaf-level photosynthesis, microclimate variables, and fruit yield at plant maturity and throughout the growing season.Results: The agrivoltaic array reduced photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) by ~79%, resulting in a cooler (−1.1 °C), more humid environment with higher soil moisture. These microclimatic conditions enhanced midday photosynthesis and daily cumulative carbon uptake. However, fruit yield was consistently lower under the panels, indicating a shift in carbon allocation toward vegetative growth. Photosynthesis was primarily driven by PAR across treatments, while soil moisture significantly influenced photosynthesis only in the control plots, suggesting water limitation was alleviated under the panels.Discussion: These findings highlight a trade-off between improved physiological performance and reduced yield under high-density agrivoltaics. While the system buffered heat and drought stress and improved overall plant function, excessive shade reduced reproductive output. Optimizing panel density or selecting crops cultivated for non-fruit yields will be essential for balancing food production and energy generation in dryland agrivoltaic settings.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integrated Modeling Driven Evaluation of Opportunities for Climate‐Resilient Perennial Biomass Crop Plantings in Flood‐Prone Agricultural Landscapes

Adapting to future climate change in flood-prone landscapes will require climate-resilient agricultural systems. Planting perennial crops, like switchgrass and willow, along river corridors can mitigate future flooding while supporting bioenergy markets. We developed an integrated assessment linking climate, hydrologic, and inundation model results to assess future flood risk to river-adjacent agricultural lands in the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) and explore this opportunity. We produced ensemble streamflow projections for every MAR stream using a hydrologic model driven by a suite of downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate projections. We then conducted high-resolution inundation mapping based on projected flood frequencies for baseline and future periods. Results show that in the near-term future, at least two-thirds of the streams will experience 100-year floods more severe than the baseline 200-year floods. Riparian zones are projected to face a median rise of inundation by 9.5%–24.1%. Results show that there is an opportunity to mitigate flooding in over half of MAR's counties with the quantities of switchgrass and willow plantings anticipated for mature bioenergy markets, even under the most extreme (200-year) flood events. Our integrated modeling framework can guide similar regions to evaluate opportunities for flood-resilient agricultural systems under climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Land-use and atmospheric shifts jointly amplify U.S. drought-driven crop losses

Agricultural drought (AD) poses a major threat to food security, yet its future risk remains uncertain under co-evolving atmospheric conditions and land-use trajectories. Using an integrated, multi-sector modeling framework, we project AD risks for major crops across the contiguous United States (CONUS) through 2055 under a range of plausible futures that capture thermodynamic changes and land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) trajectories. Model projections reveal that drought-driven crop production losses increase sharply by nearly 60% for corn, 250% for wheat, and 135% for soybean relative to historical levels. The primary drivers of these increases, which include atmospheric shifts and LULCC, vary by region and crop type. LULCC acting as an important risk amplifier in regions experiencing cropland expansion into drought-prone regions, such as the Great Plains and northwestern U.S. Wheat exhibits the largest projected loss increases, a result that remains robust across scenarios. These findings highlight that interactions between atmospheric conditions and land-use trajectories shape future agricultural drought risk and should be jointly considered to support effective adaptation and food-system planning.

Yao, Lili↗
DOE OSTI2026

Impacts of Dual-Use Solar (Agrivoltaics) on Crop Productivity and the Agricultural Economy in Massachusetts and Beyond

This project contributes applied research to better understand the impacts of agrivoltaics on farm microclimates, crop productivity, and economics at the farm and sector level. The site trial research is divided into two sets of site trials integrated into commercial farm and agrivoltaic operations – one set on annual vegetable and hay crops and one on perennial cranberry bog operations. The economic research developed methods for recording and evaluating changes in farm operations and costs, and on the public perception of and willingness-to-accept agrivoltaics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

BT23 Updates for Med $70

BT23 update using the 2025 baseline and starting results in 2024 for Med $70 with updated budgets. Cost updates include: 1) Increased the nitrogen application for the following crops: willow, camelina, carinata, pennycress, and willow. 2) Removed roundup during establishment for the following crops: camelina. 3) Harvest costs were updated because the combine width was adjusted. This affected the following crops: barley, camelina, carinata, corn, oat, pennycress, rice, sorghum, soybean, and wheat. 4) Harvest cost was updated with biomass sorghum because an additional tractor was added to pull the high dump forage wagon, and the wagon width was adjusted to not constrain the harvest operation with the combine. 5) Added poplar in the ag budget database for regions 1 and 13.

agricultural crop↗
DOE OSTI2026

Mitigating the soil carbon deficit of annual agriculture with perennial bioenergy crops in the U.S. Midwest

Maize ( Zea mays L.) is the dominant bioenergy feedstock in the US Midwest but its cultivation since the early 1800s has incurred substantial losses in soil organic carbon (SOC). We quantified differences in SOC stocks under perennial bioenergy crops of Panicum virgatum L. (switchgrass) and Miscanthus x giganteus Greef et Deuter (miscanthus) planted on former maize and soybean fields relative to maize-based annual cropping and native prairie. Comparisons were made at seven locations across Illinois, USA, spanning a range of climate and soil types. Across sites, SOC stocks to 1-m depth on an equivalent soil mass basis were 146 Mg C ha −1 under prairie, 107 Mg C ha −1 under miscanthus, 97.9 Mg C ha −1 under switchgrass, and 87.7 Mg C ha −1 under maize. Higher SOC demonstrates the potential of perennial bioenergy crops to rebuild the SOC deficit accrued under nearly two centuries of maize-based annual cropping. SOC stock increased in the first 5 years under mature bioenergy crops at four out of seven sites. Carbon isotope (δ 13 C) analyses of surface depths confirmed short-term increases in SOC to be derived from miscanthus and switchgrass. Stocks of SOC could be increased over time under miscanthus or switchgrass cultivation even with annual harvesting, though our measured rates of SOC accumulation were lower than previous estimates for Illinois and varied by site.

bioenergy↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advances in Miscanthus × Giganteus Planting Techniques May Increase Carbon Uptake in the Establishment Year

Agricultural lands hold significant potential for CO 2 sequestration, particularly when utilizing biomass crops and agricultural residues. Among these, Miscanthus × giganteus (mxg) stands out due to its high productivity and carbon sequestration capabilities. Recognizing the importance of such biomass crops, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has identified Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) as a crucial strategy for achieving net-zero CO 2 emissions by 2050. This study examines the carbon uptake potential of mxg during its establishment year at the Sustainable Advanced Bioeconomy Research (SABR) farm in Iowa, USA, where mxg was planted at a density exceeding previous studies. Using eddy covariance (EC) measurements, we quantified the net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE), and derived gross primary productivity (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (R eco ). Our findings reveal that SABR's mxg exhibited a significant carbon uptake of –621 g C m –2 , a threefold increase compared to a similar EC site in the “corn-belt” (University of Illinois Energy Research Farm; UIEF), which was established with lower planting density and pre-commercial planting equipment. Favorable growing conditions and advanced planting technologies at SABR likely contributed to this high carbon uptake. Comparisons with other global EC studies indicated a strong correlation between higher planting densities and greater carbon uptake. These results suggest that increasing mxg planting density can enhance carbon uptake, but further studies are necessary to evaluate the impacts under varying environmental conditions and management practices. Additionally, economic analyses are essential to determine the viability of higher planting densities. Our study underscores the potential of optimized mxg management practices to contribute significantly to CO 2 uptake and supports the development of BECCS as a viable climate change mitigation strategy.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Reduced soil diazotroph diversity decreases nitrogen fixation rates, but depends on land management

Soil diazotrophs convert atmospheric nitrogen into plant-available ammonium through free-living nitrogen fixation (FLNF). This sustainable nitrogen source can reduce our dependence on synthetic fertilizer inputs in conventional agricultural systems. However, we know little about the effect of diazotroph diversity on FLNF, especially given that FLNF is intermediate within the broad-narrow functional spectrum. Here, we determined how management-mediated shifts in diazotroph diversity would impact their ecosystem function (FLNF) by quantifying diazotroph diversity across a long-term management gradient during and after the growing season. In addition to field observations, we leveraged the same management gradient to manipulate diversity in soil microcosms via chloroform fumigation exposure. In the field, diazotroph diversity was significantly higher after the growing season, and the biologically-based annual cropping system harbored the highest diazotroph diversity. However, perennial cropping systems maintained the highest FLNF despite lower diazotroph diversity, and both soil moisture and temperature were stronger predictors of FLNF. Based on these results, integrating diverse perennial crops into agricultural landscape could result in greater N from FLNF, particularly at the end of the growing season. When we reduced biodiversity in a manipulation experiment, the diversity-FLNF association was stronger than in the field experiment, suggesting that FLNF communities are not as functionally redundant as taxonomically ‘broad’ ecosystem functions. Here, the strength of diversity-FLNF correlation varied by previous land management. Diazotroph diversity better predicted FLNF in annual and forest soil microcosms, and microbial biomass carbon better predicted FLNF in perennial soil microcosms. Taken together, our results show that while diazotroph diversity influences FLNF, especially under extreme environmental disturbances, abiotic factors like soil moisture and temperature are stronger constraints on FLNF in the field.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗