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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A level-of-details framework for representing occupant behavior in agent-based models

We report agent-based modeling is an advanced computational technique capable of representing complex and dynamic processes of human behavior in building performance simulation. Though the agent-based approach supports diverse applications concerning human behavior modeling within the built environment, there is no consensus on the optimal amount of information or level of granularity needed for occupant information representation. This paper attempts to formalize the level of details (LoD) needed for occupant behavior representation in agent-based environments. A novel framework, grounded on the concept of LoD, is proposed to select the required details in representing occupants in agent-based models. Ten attributes related to occupants' presence, movement, behavioral processes, and repertoire are considered to define the LoD. The framework identifies use case parameters as the guiding principle and allows a hybrid approach for selecting varying degrees of occupant attributes to serve the purpose of simulation. A discussion on the pertinence of different occupant behavior LoDs in relation to the desired objective and simulation context is also presented. The study intends to support the occupant behavior research by advancing agent-based occupant modeling in building performance simulation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Application of Machine Learning Techniques to an Agent-Based Model of Pantoea

Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a powerful simulation technique which describes a complex dynamic system based on its interacting constituent entities. While the flexibility of ABM enables broad application, the complexity of real-world models demands intensive computing resources and computational time; however, a metamodel may be constructed to gain insight at less computational expense. Here, we developed a model in NetLogo to describe the growth of a microbial population consisting of Pantoea . We applied 13 parameters that defined the model and actively changed seven of the parameters to modulate the evolution of the population curve in response to these changes. We efficiently performed more than 3,000 simulations using a Python wrapper, NL4Py . Upon evaluation of the correlation between the active parameters and outputs by random forest regression, we found that the parameters which define the depth of medium and glucose concentration affect the population curves significantly. Subsequently, we constructed a metamodel, a dense neural network, to predict the simulation outputs from the active parameters and found that it achieves high prediction accuracy, reaching an R 2 coefficient of determination value up to 0.92. Our approach of using a combination of ABM with random forest regression and neural network reduces the number of required ABM simulations. The simplified and refined metamodels may provide insights into the complex dynamic system before their transition to more sophisticated models that run on high-performance computing systems. The ultimate goal is to build a bridge between simulation and experiment, allowing model validation by comparing the simulated data to experimental data in microbiology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian Calibration of Stochastic Agent Based Model via Random Forest

Agent-based models (ABM) provide an excellent framework for modeling outbreaks and interventions in epidemiology by explicitly accounting for diverse individual interactions and environments. However, these models are usually stochastic and highly parametrized, requiring precise calibration for predictive performance. When considering realistic numbers of agents and properly accounting for stochasticity, this high-dimensional calibration can be computationally prohibitive. This paper presents a random forest-based surrogate modeling technique to accelerate the evaluation of ABMs and demonstrates its use to calibrate an epidemiological ABM named CityCOVID via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The technique is first outlined in the context of CityCOVID's quantities of interest, namely hospitalizations and deaths, by exploring dimensionality reduction via temporal decomposition with principal component analysis (PCA) and via sensitivity analysis. The calibration problem is then presented, and samples are generated to best match COVID-19 hospitalization and death numbers in Chicago from March to June in 2020. Further, these results are compared with previous approximate Bayesian calibration (IMABC) results, and their predictive performance is analyzed, showing improved performance with a reduction in computation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-level impacts of climate change and supply disruption events on a potato supply chain: An agent-based modeling approach

Context: The world is experiencing frequent extreme weather events like droughts, snowstorms, and shifting of seasons due to climate change. Increased frequency and severity of these extreme weather events threaten food security because agriculture depends on climate conditions. Impacts of climate change on the agricultural system not only occur at the grower’s level, but also cascade to other levels along the supply chain. Objective: In this study, we aim to quantify a wide range of economic impacts of different extreme climate events on different stages of a food supply chain. Methods: We chose the potato supply chain in Idaho as a case study. We developed a multi-echelon supply chain simulation model using an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach with five types of agents—farmers, shippers, processors, retailers, and logistics companies. In addition to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, we designed two climate-related disruption events—drought and snowstorm. We quantified the heterogeneous impacts at different stages of the supply chain for both fresh and processed potatoes using key performance indicators (KPIs) including revenues, prices, lead times, traded quantities, and food waste quantity. Results and Conclusion: The impacts of the disruption events are different on different agents in the supply chain for different product categories. The price hike of fresh potatoes is far higher than processed potatoes during disruption events. This price hike makes consumers switch to processed potatoes, which require more fresh potatoes as an input that further reinforces the price hike. However, because processed potatoes have an elastic demand, once their prices go up due to higher input cost, their demand drops. Non-contracted farmers gain additional revenues from the disruption events, whereas contracted farmers incur a loss due to lock-in price and lower than usual harvest. Significance: The methodology developed in this study could be applied to other food and agricultural supply chains for understanding the vulnerabilities at agent levels due to climate change disruption events. Furthermore, the findings would help develop mitigation strategies or policies to improve the well-being of the overall supply chain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Discerning Deception: An Empirically-Driven Agent-Based Model of Expert Evaluation of Scientific Content

Both human subject experiments and computational, modeling and simulations have been used to study detection of deception. This work aims to combine these two methods by integrating empirically-derived information (from human subject experiments) into agent-based models to generate novel insights into the complex problems of detection of disinformation content. Computational experiments are used to simulate across multiple scenarios for evaluation and decision-making regarding the validity of potentially deceptive scientific documents. Factors influencing the human agent behaviors in the model were identified through a human subject experiment that was conducted to evaluate and characterize decision making related to disinformation discernment. Correlation and regression analyses were used to translate insights from the human subjects experiment to inform the parameterization of agent features and scenario development. Three scenarios were evaluated with the agent-based models to help evaluate the replicability of the simulations (validation analysis) and assess the influence of human agent and document features (sensitivity analyses). A replication of the human participant experiment demonstrated that the agent-based simulations compare favorably to empirical findings. The agent-based modeling was then used to conduct sensitivity analysis on the accuracy of deception detection as a function of document proportions and human agent features. Results indicate that precision values are adversely impacted when the proportion of deceptive documents is lower in the overall sample, whereas recall values are more sensitive to changes in human agent features. These findings indicate important nuances in accuracy evaluations that should be further considered (including consideration of potential alternate metrics) in future agent-based models of disinformation. Additional areas for future exploration include extension of simulations to consider other ways to align the agent-based model design with psychological theory and inclusion of agent-agent interactions, especially as it pertains to sharing of scientific information within an organizational context.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS2012

A Model of Rapid Radicalization Behavior Using Agent-Based Modeling and Quorum Sensing

Understanding the dynamics of radicalization, especially rapid radicalization, has become increasingly important to US policy in the past several years. Traditionally, radicalization is considered a slow process, but recent social and political events demonstrate that the process can occur quickly. Examining this rapid process, in real time, is impossible. However, recreating an event using modeling and simulation (M&S) allows researchers to study some of the complex dynamics associated with rapid radicalization. We propose to adapt the biological mechanism of quorum sensing as a tool to explore, or possibly explain, rapid radicalization. Due to the complex nature of quorum sensing, M&S allows us to examine events that we could not otherwise examine in real time. For this study, we employ Agent Based Modeling (ABM), an M&S paradigm suited to modeling group behavior. The result of this study was the successful creation of rapid radicalization using quorum sensing. The Battle of Mogadishu was the inspiration for this model and provided the testing conditions used to explore quorum sensing and the ideas behind rapid radicalization. The final product has wider applicability however, using quorum sensing as a possible tool for examining other catalytic rapid radicalization events.

Schwartz, Noah↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model-form Error Correction using Universal Differential Equations for an Agent-Based Model of Infectious Disease

This report demonstrates universal differential equations (UDEs) as an approach to bridge the gap between ordinary differential equations (ODE) models and agent-based models (ABMs). Using UDE models as surrogates for ABMs allows us to preserve the foundational ODE that represents global disease dynamics while coupling it with a neural network model to approximate functions for the local behaviors of the ABM.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

Understanding Group/Party Affiliation Using Social Networks and Agent-Based Modeling

The dynamics of group affiliation and group dispersion is a concept that is most often studied in order for political candidates to better understand the most efficient way to conduct their campaigns. While political campaigning in the United States is a very hot topic that most politicians analyze and study, the concept of group/party affiliation presents its own area of study that producers very interesting results. One tool for examining party affiliation on a large scale is agent-based modeling (ABM), a paradigm in the modeling and simulation (M&S) field perfectly suited for aggregating individual behaviors to observe large swaths of a population. For this study agent based modeling was used in order to look at a community of agents and determine what factors can affect the group/party affiliation patterns that are present. In the agent-based model that was used for this experiment many factors were present but two main factors were used to determine the results. The results of this study show that it is possible to use agent-based modeling to explore group/party affiliation and construct a model that can mimic real world events. More importantly, the model in the study allows for the results found in a smaller community to be translated into larger experiments to determine if the results will remain present on a much larger scale.

Campbell, Kenyth↗
NASA NTRS2010

Using Agent Base Models to Optimize Large Scale Network for Large System Inventories

The aim of this paper is to use Agent Base Models (ABM) to optimize large scale network handling capabilities for large system inventories and to implement strategies for the purpose of reducing capital expenses. The models used in this paper either use computational algorithms or procedure implementations developed by Matlab to simulate agent based models in a principal programming language and mathematical theory using clusters, these clusters work as a high performance computational performance to run the program in parallel computational. In both cases, a model is defined as compilation of a set of structures and processes assumed to underlie the behavior of a network system.

Shameldin, Ramez Ahmed↗
NASA NTRS2005

A CSP-Based Agent Modeling Framework for the Cougaar Agent-Based Architecture

Cognitive Agent Architecture (Cougaar) is a Java-based architecture for large-scale distributed agent-based applications. A Cougaar agent is an autonomous software entity with behaviors that represent a real-world entity (e.g., a business process). A Cougaar-based Model Driven Architecture approach, currently under development, uses a description of system's functionality (requirements) to automatically implement the system in Cougaar. The Communicating Sequential Processes (CSP) formalism is used for the formal validation of the generated system. Two main agent components, a blackboard and a plugin, are modeled as CSP processes. A set of channels represents communications between the blackboard and individual plugins. The blackboard is represented as a CSP process that communicates with every agent in the collection. The developed CSP-based Cougaar modeling framework provides a starting point for a more complete formal verification of the automatically generated Cougaar code. Currently it is used to verify the behavior of an individual agent in terms of CSP properties and to analyze the corresponding Cougaar society.

Gracanin, Denis↗
DOE OSTI2025

Simulating nationwide coupled disease and fear spread in an agent-based model

Human cognitive responses, behavioral responses, and disease dynamics co-evolve over the course of any disease outbreak, and can result in complex feedbacks. We present a dynamic agent-based model that explicitly couples the spread of disease with the spread of fear surrounding the disease, implemented within the EpiCast simulation framework. EpiCast models transmission within a realistic synthetic population, capturing individual-level interactions. In our model, fear propagates through both in-person contact and broadcast media, prompting individuals to adopt protective behaviors that reduce disease spread. In order to better understand these coupled dynamics, we create and compare a range of compartmental models to ensure that introducing additional disease states does not prevent the emergence of multiple waves in these simpler models. Additionally, we compare a range of behavioral scenarios within EpiCast, varying the level and intensity of fear and behavior change. Our results show that the addition of asymptomatic, exposed, and pre-symptomatic disease states can impact both the rate at which an outbreak progresses and its overall trajectory in compartmental models. In EpiCast, the combination of non-local fear spread via broadcasters and strong behavioral responses by fearful individuals generally leads to multiple epidemic waves, an outcome that occurs only within a narrow parameter range when fear spreads purely through local contact. Accounting for the coupled spread of fear and disease is critical for understanding disease dynamics and designing timely, targeted responses to emerging infectious threats.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2002

Agent Based Modeling of Collaboration and Work Practices Onboard the International Space Station

The International Space Station is one the most complex projects ever, with numerous interdependent constraints affecting productivity and crew safety. This requires planning years before crew expeditions, and the use of sophisticated scheduling tools. Human work practices, however, are difficult to study and represent within traditional planning tools. We present an agent-based model and simulation of the activities and work practices of astronauts onboard the ISS based on an agent-oriented approach. The model represents 'a day in the life' of the ISS crew and is developed in Brahms, an agent-oriented, activity-based language used to model knowledge in situated action and learning in human activities.

Acquisti, Alessandro↗
NASA NTRS2006

An Agent-Based Model for Analyzing Control Policies and the Dynamic Service-Time Performance of a Capacity-Constrained Air Traffic Management Facility

Simple agent-based models may be useful for investigating air traffic control strategies as a precursory screening for more costly, higher fidelity simulation. Of concern is the ability of the models to capture the essence of the system and provide insight into system behavior in a timely manner and without breaking the bank. The method is put to the test with the development of a model to address situations where capacity is overburdened and potential for propagation of the resultant delay though later flights is possible via flight dependencies. The resultant model includes primitive representations of principal air traffic system attributes, namely system capacity, demand, airline schedules and strategy, and aircraft capability. It affords a venue to explore their interdependence in a time-dependent, dynamic system simulation. The scope of the research question and the carefully-chosen modeling fidelity did allow for the development of an agent-based model in short order. The model predicted non-linear behavior given certain initial conditions and system control strategies. Additionally, a combination of the model and dimensionless techniques borrowed from fluid systems was demonstrated that can predict the system s dynamic behavior across a wide range of parametric settings.

Conway, Sheila R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Agent-based modeling of microbes in space

Space is tough on organisms. Microorganisms traveling to space experience stress from environmental features such as ionizing radiation and lack of normal microgravity; however, much remains unknown about the mechanisms by which those environmental features affect microbial physiology. Microbes experience changes in gravity not directly but rather through changes in their fluid environment, and deep-space particle radiation causes cell damage that is complex but rare. Computational modeling at the single-cell level (agent-based modeling) can allow us to probe the spatially heterogeneous processes that characterize space stresses, to gain insight into the relationships of microbial cells with their environments and with each other. Here we present two software packages for simulating microbial population dynamics in space conditions: CAMDLES and AMMPER. Microbes growing in liquid culture medium in the microgravity of an orbital space station experience a quiescent, poorly-mixed fluid environment. CAMDLES (CFD-DEM Artificial Microgravity Developments for Living Ecosystem Simulation) simultaneously simulates biological, chemical, and mechanical processes to predict microbial ecological dynamics in microgravity, and in the rotating culture vessels used to create an artificial microgravity environment in the lab. Initial results demonstrate that the growth of a cross-feeding microbial consortium, dependent on the exchange of soluble metabolites, is sensitive to the initial spatial distribution of cells, and grows differently in real versus artificial microgravity. Microbial populations exposed to deep-space radiation experience spatially and temporally heterogeneous damage from the traversal of high-energy particles. AMMPER (Agent-Based Model for Microbial Populations Exposed to Radiation) pairs a 3d model of energy deposition along a radiation particle track with a microbial population growth and damage model to predict the effects of localized radiation damage on population-level responses. It includes a user-friendly graphical interface. AMMPER results agree with experimental data indicating that indirect effects of radiation (reactive oxygen species generation, metabolic impairment) have a greater impact on microorganisms than direct effects (DNA damage).

Jessica A Lee↗
NASA NTRS2022

Agent-Based Modeling of Microbes in Space

Space is tough on organisms. Microorganisms traveling to space experience stress from environmental features such as ionizing radiation and lack of normal gravity, and much remains unknown about the mechanisms by which those environmental features affect microbial physiology. Microbes experience changes in gravity not directly but rather through changes in their fluid environment, and deep-space particle radiation causes cell damage that is complex but rare. Computational modeling at the single-cell level (agent-based modeling) can allow us to probe the spatially heterogeneous processes that characterize space stresses, to gain insight into the relationships of microbial cells with their environments and with each other. Here we present two software packages for simulating microbial population dynamics in space conditions: CAMDLES and AMMPER. Microbes growing in liquid culture medium in the microgravity of an orbital space station experience a quiescent, poorly-mixed fluid environment. CAMDLES (CFD-DEM Artificial Microgravity Developments for Living Ecosystem Simulation) simultaneously simulates biological, chemical, and mechanical processes to predict microbial ecological dynamics in microgravity, and in the rotating culture vessels used to create an artificial microgravity environment in the lab. Initial results demonstrate that the growth of a cross-feeding microbial consortium, dependent on the exchange of soluble metabolites, is sensitive to the initial spatial distribution of cells, and grows differently in real versus artificial microgravity. Microbial populations exposed to deep-space radiation experience spatially and temporally heterogeneous damage from the traversal of high-energy particles. AMMPER (Agent-Based Model for Microbial Populations Exposed to Radiation) pairs a 3d model of energy deposition along a radiation particle track with a microbial population growth and damage model to predict the effects of localized radiation damage on population-level responses. It includes a user-friendly graphical interface. AMMPER growth curves recapitulate experimental results, and allow comparison between direct effects (DNA damage) and indirect effects (reactive oxygen species generation, metabolic impairment) of radiation.

microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian calibration of stochastic agent based model via random forest

SAND2024-11403O The Bayesian Calibration of Stochastic Agent-based Model via Random Forest is a code that was developed in concurrence with an article by the same name that was written for a journal. The code reproduces simulation results and plots from the article. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Reverse Logistics Ev Battery Recycling Agent Base Model

This represents the initial regional tier of the electric vehicle (EV) battery recycling agent base model. Through this model, we can ascertain the number of EV purchases at both the state and regional levels. We employ census data to develop a diverse household profile to inform decisions regarding the acquisition of new or used EVs. The number of EV purchases at the state level will affect the future demand for recycling, reuse, and repurposing of end-of-life EV batteries. Additionally, tax credits, EV rebate programs, and the financial capacity of households will influence the number of EV purchases, thereby further impacting the demand for EV battery recycling.

Alam, Lamia [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idah↗