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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2006

Model Intercomparison of Indirect Aerosol Effects

Modeled differences in predicted effects are increasingly used to help quantify the uncertainty of these effects. Here, we examine modeled differences in the aerosol indirect effect in a series of experiments that help to quantify how and why model-predicted aerosol indirect forcing varies between models. The experiments start with an experiment in which aerosol concentrations, the parameterization of droplet concentrations and the autoconversion scheme are all specified and end with an experiment that examines the predicted aerosol indirect forcing when only aerosol sources are specified. Although there are large differences in the predicted liquid water path among the models, the predicted aerosol first indirect effect for the first experiment is rather similar, about -0.6 W/sq m to -0.7 W/sq m. Changes to the autoconversion scheme can lead to large changes in the liquid water path of the models and to the response of the liquid water path to changes in aerosols. Adding an autoconversion scheme that depends on the droplet concentration caused a larger (negative) change in net outgoing shortwave radiation compared to the 1st indirect effect, and the increase varied from only 22% to more than a factor of three. The change in net shortwave forcing in the models due to varying the autoconversion scheme depends on the liquid water content of the clouds as well as their predicted droplet concentrations, and both increases and decreases in the net shortwave forcing can occur when autoconversion schemes are changed. The parameterization of cloud fraction within models is not sensitive to the aerosol concentration, and, therefore, the response of the modeled cloud fraction within the present models appears to be smaller than that which would be associated with model "noise". The prediction of aerosol concentrations, given a fixed set of sources, leads to some of the largest differences in the predicted aerosol indirect radiative forcing among the models, with values of cloud forcing ranging from -0.3 W/sq m to -1.4W/sq m. Thus, this aspect of modeling requires significant improvement in order to improve the prediction of aerosol indirect effects.

Penner, J. E.↗
NASA NTRS2001

GCM Simulations of the Aerosol Indirect Effect: Sensitivity to Cloud Parameterization and Aerosol Burden

We describe the coupling of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) to an online sulfur chemistry model and source models for organic matter and sea-salt that is used to estimate the aerosol indirect effect. The cloud droplet number concentration is diagnosed empirically from field experiment datasets over land and ocean that observe droplet number and all three aerosol types simultaneously; corrections are made for implied variations in cloud turbulence levels. The resulting cloud droplet number is used to calculate variations in droplet effective radius, which in turn allows us to predict aerosol effects on cloud optical thickness and microphysical process rates. We calculate the aerosol indirect effect by differencing the top-of-the-atmosphere net cloud radiative forcing for simulations with present-day vs. pre-industrial emissions. Both the first (radiative) and second (microphysical) indirect effects are explored. We test the sensitivity of our results to cloud parameterization assumptions that control the vertical distribution of cloud occurrence, the autoconversion rate, and the aerosol scavenging rate, each of which feeds back significantly on the model aerosol burden. The global mean aerosol indirect effect for all three aerosol types ranges from -1.55 to -4.36 W/sq m in our simulations. The results are quite sensitive to the pre-industrial background aerosol burden, with low pre-industrial burdens giving strong indirect effects, and to a lesser extent to the anthropogenic aerosol burden, with large burdens giving somewhat larger indirect effects. Because of this dependence on the background aerosol, model diagnostics such as albedo-particle size correlations and column cloud susceptibility, for which satellite validation products are available, are not good predictors of the resulting indirect effect.

Menon, Surabi↗
NASA NTRS2001

GCM Simulations of the Aerosol Indirect Effect: Sensitivity to Cloud Parameterization and Aerosol Burden

We describe the coupling of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) to an online sulfur chemistry model and source models for organic matter and sea-salt that is used to estimate the aerosol indirect effect. The cloud droplet number concentration is diagnosed empirically from field experiment datasets over land and ocean that observe droplet number and all three aerosol types simultaneously; corrections are made for implied variations in cloud turbulence levels. The resulting cloud droplet number is used to calculate variations in droplet effective radius, which in turn allows us to predict aerosol effects on cloud optical thickness and microphysical process rates. We calculate the aerosol indirect effect by differencing the top-of-the-atmosphere net cloud radiative forcing for simulations with present-day vs. pre-industrial emissions. Both the first (radiative) and second (microphysical) indirect effects are explored. We test the sensitivity of our results to cloud parameterization assumptions that control the vertical distribution of cloud occurrence, the autoconversion rate, and the aerosol scavenging rate, each of which feeds back significantly on the model aerosol burden. The global mean aerosol indirect effect for all three aerosol types ranges from -1.55 to -4.36 W m(exp -2) in our simulations. The results are quite sensitive to the pre-industrial background aerosol burden, with low pre-industrial burdens giving strong indirect effects, and to a lesser extent to the anthropogenic aerosol burden, with large burdens giving somewhat larger indirect effects. Because of this dependence on the background aerosol, model diagnostics such as albedo-particle size correlations and column cloud susceptibility, for which satellite validation products are available, are not good predictors of the resulting indirect effect.

Menon, Surabi↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Simple Model of Global Aerosol Indirect Effects

Most estimates of the global mean indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosol on the Earth's energy balance are from simulations by global models of the aerosol lifecycle coupled with global models of clouds and the hydrologic cycle. Extremely simple models have been developed for integrated assessment models, but lack the flexibility to distinguish between primary and secondary sources of aerosol. Here a simple but more physically based model expresses the aerosol indirect effect (AIE) using analytic representations of cloud and aerosol distributions and processes. Although the simple model is able to produce estimates of AIEs that are comparable to those from some global aerosol models using the same global mean aerosol properties, the estimates by the simple model are sensitive to preindustrial cloud condensation nuclei concentration, preindustrial accumulation mode radius, width of the accumulation mode, size of primary particles, cloud thickness, primary and secondary anthropogenic emissions, the fraction of the secondary anthropogenic emissions that accumulates on the coarse mode, the fraction of the secondary mass that forms new particles, and the sensitivity of liquid water path to droplet number concentration. Estimates of present-day AIEs as low as 5 W/sq m and as high as 0.3 W/sq m are obtained for plausible sets of parameter values. Estimates are surprisingly linear in emissions. The estimates depend on parameter values in ways that are consistent with results from detailed global aerosol-climate simulation models, which adds to understanding of the dependence on AIE uncertainty on uncertainty in parameter values.

Clouds↗
NASA NTRS2007

Cloud Condensation Nuclei Prediction Error from Application of Kohler Theory: Importance for the Aerosol Indirect Effect

In situ observations of aerosol and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and the GISS GCM Model II' with an online aerosol simulation and explicit aerosol-cloud interactions are used to quantify the uncertainty in radiative forcing and autoconversion rate from application of Kohler theory. Simulations suggest that application of Koehler theory introduces a 10-20% uncertainty in global average indirect forcing and 2-11% uncertainty in autoconversion. Regionally, the uncertainty in indirect forcing ranges between 10-20%, and 5-50% for autoconversion. These results are insensitive to the range of updraft velocity and water vapor uptake coefficient considered. This study suggests that Koehler theory (as implemented in climate models) is not a significant source of uncertainty for aerosol indirect forcing but can be substantial for assessments of aerosol effects on the hydrological cycle in climatically sensitive regions of the globe. This implies that improvements in the representation of GCM subgrid processes and aerosol size distribution will mostly benefit indirect forcing assessments. Predictions of autoconversion, by nature, will be subject to considerable uncertainty; its reduction may require explicit representation of size-resolved aerosol composition and mixing state.

Sotiropoulou, Rafaella-Eleni P.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancing the Understanding of Cloud Microphysical Processes and Aerosol Indirect Effects in High-Latitude Mixed-Phase Clouds by Linking ARM Measurements with Climate Model Simulations (Final Report)

The key objectives of this project were to advance our understanding of cloud microphysical characteristics and aerosol indirect effects on mixed-phase clouds in high latitudes. To improve the representation of ice and mixed-phase clouds in Earth System Models (ESMs), we propose an integrated observation and modeling study of cloud macro- and microphysical properties, including spatial heterogeneities, mass partitioning between ice crystals and supercooled liquid water, effects of ice nucleating particles (INPs), and efficiency of secondary ice production (SIP), etc. Specifically, we took four main approaches in this project: (1) examining macro- and microphysical properties of ice and mixed-phase clouds based on in-situ and ground-based observations from multiple field campaigns funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, including the Mixed-Phase Arctic Cloud Experiment (M-PACE), Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign (ISDAC), Ice Nucleating Particle Sources at Oliktok Point (INPOP), ARM West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE), Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS), and Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE); (2) evaluating the DOE Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) simulations based on observations, particularly for ice and mixed-phase cloud microphysical properties; (3) examining the impacts of INPs on ice and mixed-phase clouds. Specifically, a series of comparisons were conducted using observations over the Arctic, Southern Ocean, and Antarctica, including comparisons between the lower and higher southern latitudes as well as comparisons between the northern and southern hemispheres. In addition, aerosol indirect effects from distinct sources of dust particles were examined; and (4) investigating the impacts of SIP. Ultimately, these results helped to improve cloud microphysics and aerosol-cloud interaction parameterizations in the E3SM model. Overall, the project provided improved understanding regarding various factors, including thermodynamic, dynamic, and aerosol conditions, on the micro- and macrophysical properties of ice and mixed-phase clouds in the high latitudes. Resulting analysis helped to provide an improved physical basis for refining the current cloud microphysics parameterizations related to ice and mixed-phase clouds in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Global Distribution of Cloud Droplet Number Concentration, Autoconversion Rate, and Aerosol Indirect Effect Under Diabatic Droplet Activation

This study presents a global assessment of the sensitivity of droplet number to diabatic activation (i.e., including effects from entrainment of dry air) and its first-order tendency on indirect forcing and autoconversion. Simulations were carried out with the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) atmospheric and transport model using climatological metereorological fields derived from the former NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO), the NASA Finite volume GCM (FVGCM) and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies version II (GISS) GCM. Cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) is calculated using a physically based prognostic parameterization that explicitly includes entrainment effects on droplet formation. Diabatic activation results in lower CDNC, compared to adiabatic treatment of the process. The largest decrease in CDNC (by up to 75 percent) was found in the tropics and in zones of moderate CCN concentration. This leads to a global mean effective radius increase between 0.2-0.5 micrometers (up to 3.5 micrometers over the tropics), a global mean autoconversion rate increase by a factor of 1.1 to 1.7 (up to a factor of 4 in the tropics), and a 0.2-0.4 W m(exp -2) decrease in indirect forcing. The spatial patterns of entrainment effects on droplet activation tend to reduce biases in effective radius (particularly in the tropics) when compared to satellite retrievals. Considering the diabatic nature of ambient clouds, entrainment effects on CDNC need to be considered in GCM studies of the aerosol indirect effect.

Barahona, Donifan↗
DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of contrasting aerosol indirect effects in liquid water clouds over the northern part of Arabian Sea

The extensive daily statistics of aerosol properties, cloud properties, and their mutual correlations provide crucial information for better assessing future climate change. Here, in this paper, 14 years (2010–2023) of data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) are analyzed over the northern part of Arabian Sea (Latitude: 21°–25° N and Longitude: 62°–68° E) to assess the characteristics of aerosols and clouds and their relationships under different meteorological conditions. When aerosol optical depth (AOD) is less than ~0.7, the observations exhibit a positive correlation between AOD and cloud droplet effective radius (CDR) but negative correlations between AOD and cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC), between AOD and cloud optical depth (COD), between AOD and cloud liquid water path (CLWP), and between AOD and cloud geometrical thickness (H). The corresponding aerosol-cloud correlations change signs when the AOD values are larger than 0.7. However, the single folded positive AOD-cloud fraction (CF) relationship is observed in both AOD regimes. Similar correlations are also observed between precipitable water vapor (PWV) and CDR, CDNC, COD, H, CF and CLWP, together with a positive correlation between PWV and AOD. Further isolation of the environmental effects from aerosol effects by stratifying AOD and cloud data into different LTS and PWV bins shows that the signature of the well-known Twomey effect is observed under high LTS-high PWV conditions, while an opposite effect (anti-Twomey) is observed under low PWV conditions, regardless of LTS values. Additionally, negative correlations between AOD and COD, AOD and CLWP, and AOD and H are observed under low LTS, regardless of PWV conditions, with a slight positive correlation when AOD >0.4 under high LTS and PWV conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2006

Aerosol Indirect Effect Studies at Southern Great Plains During the May 2003 Intensive Operations Period

During May 2003 the Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program conducted an Intensive Operations Period (IOP) to measure the radiative effects of aerosol and clouds. A suite of both in situ and remote sensing measurements were available to measure aerosol and cloud parameters. This paper has three main goals: First, it focuses on comparison between in situ retrievals of the radiatively important drop effective radius r(sub e) and various satellite, airborne, and surface remote sensing retrievals of the same parameter. On 17 May 2003, there was a fortuitous, near-simultaneous sampling of a stratus cloud by five different methods. The retrievals of r(sub e) agree with one another to within approx.20%, which is approximately the error estimate for most methods. Second, a methodology for deriving a best estimate of r(sub e) from these different instruments, with their different physical properties and sampling volumes, is proposed and applied to the 17 May event. Third, the paper examines the response of r(sub e) to changes in aerosol on 3 days during the experiment and examines the consistency of remote sensing and in situ measurements of the effect of aerosol on r(sub e). It is shown that in spite of the generally good agreement in derived r(sub e), the magnitude of the response of r(sub e), to changes in aerosol is quite sensitive to the method of retrieving r(sub e) and to the aerosol proxy for cloud condensation nuclei. Nonphysical responses are sometimes noted, and it is suggested that further work needs to be done to refine these techniques.

Feingold, Graham↗
NASA NTRS2014

Modeling the Influences of Aerosols on Pre-Monsoon Circulation and Rainfall over Southeast Asia

We conduct several sets of simulations with a version of NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5, (GEOS-5) Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) equipped with a two-moment cloud microphysical scheme to understand the role of biomass burning aerosol (BBA) emissions in Southeast Asia (SEA) in the pre-monsoon period of February-May. Our experiments are designed so that both direct and indirect aerosol effects can be evaluated. For climatologically prescribed monthly sea surface temperatures, we conduct sets of model integrations with and without biomass burning emissions in the area of peak burning activity, and with direct aerosol radiative effects either active or inactive. Taking appropriate differences between AGCM experiment sets, we find that BBA affects liquid clouds in statistically significantly ways, increasing cloud droplet number concentrations, decreasing droplet effective radii (i.e., a classic aerosol indirect effect), and locally suppressing precipitation due to a deceleration of the autoconversion process, with the latter effect apparently also leading to cloud condensate increases. Geographical re-arrangements of precipitation patterns, with precipitation increases downwind of aerosol sources are also seen, most likely because of advection of weakly precipitating cloud fields. Somewhat unexpectedly, the change in cloud radiative effect (cloud forcing) at surface is in the direction of lesser cooling because of decreases in cloud fraction. Overall, however, because of direct radiative effect contributions, aerosols exert a net negative forcing at both the top of the atmosphere and, perhaps most importantly, the surface, where decreased evaporation triggers feedbacks that further reduce precipitation. Invoking the approximation that direct and indirect aerosol effects are additive, we estimate that the overall precipitation reduction is about 40% due to the direct effects of absorbing aerosols, which stabilize the atmosphere and reduce surface latent heat fluxes via cooler land surface temperatures. Further refinements of our two-moment cloud microphysics scheme are needed for a more complete examination of the role of aerosol-convection interactions in the seasonal development of the SEA monsoon.

SE Asia Monsoon↗
NASA NTRS2022

Future Climate Change Under SSP Emission Scenarios with GISS-E2.1

This paper presents the response to anthropogenic forcing in the GISS-E2.1 climate models for the 21st century Shared Socioeconomic Pathways emission scenarios within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The experiments were performed using an updated and improved version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes two different versions for atmospheric composition: A non-interactive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect and the One-Moment Aerosol model (OMA) version with fully interactive aerosols which includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. The effective climate sensitivities are 3.0°C and 2.9°C for the NINT and OMA models, respectively. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: The GISS ocean model (E2.1-G) and HYCOM (E2.1-H). We describe the global mean responses for all future scenarios and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation for four of the marker scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5. By 2100, global mean warming ranges from 1.5°C to 5.2°C relative to 1,850–1,880 mean temperature. Two high-mitigation scenarios SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 limit the surface warming to below 2°C by the end of the 21st century, except for the NINT E2.1-H model that simulates 2.2°C of surface warming. For the high emission scenario SSP5-8.5, the range is 4.6–5.2°C at 2100. Due to about 15% larger effective climate sensitivity and stronger transient climate response in both NINT and OMA CMIP6 models compared to CMIP5 versions, there is a stronger warming by 2100 in the SSP emission scenarios than in the comparable Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios in CMIP5. Changes in sea ice area are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with the largest sea ice area decreases occurring during September in the Northern Hemisphere in both E2.1-G (−1.21 × 106 km2/°C) and E2.1-H models (−0.94 × 106 km2/°C). Both coupled models project decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. The largest decrease of 56%–65% in the 21st century overturning stream function is produced in the warmest scenario SSP5-8.5 in the E2.1-G model, comparable to the reduction in the corresponding CMIP5 GISS-E2 RCP8.5 simulation. Both low-end scenarios SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 also simulate substantial reductions of the overturning (9%–37%) with slow recovery of about 10% by the end of the 21st century (relative to the maximum decrease at the middle of the 21st century).

climate models↗
NASA NTRS2014

Configuration and Assessment of the GISS ModelE2 Contributions to the CMIP5 Archive

We present a description of the ModelE2 version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) General Circulation Model (GCM) and the configurations used in the simulations performed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We use six variations related to the treatment of the atmospheric composition, the calculation of aerosol indirect effects, and ocean model component. Specifically, we test the difference between atmospheric models that have noninteractive composition, where radiatively important aerosols and ozone are prescribed from precomputed decadal averages, and interactive versions where atmospheric chemistry and aerosols are calculated given decadally varying emissions. The impact of the first aerosol indirect effect on clouds is either specified using a simple tuning, or parameterized using a cloud microphysics scheme. We also use two dynamic ocean components: the Russell and HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) which differ significantly in their basic formulations and grid. Results are presented for the climatological means over the satellite era (1980-2004) taken from transient simulations starting from the preindustrial (1850) driven by estimates of appropriate forcings over the 20th Century. Differences in base climate and variability related to the choice of ocean model are large, indicating an important structural uncertainty. The impact of interactive atmospheric composition on the climatology is relatively small except in regions such as the lower stratosphere, where ozone plays an important role, and the tropics, where aerosol changes affect the hydrological cycle and cloud cover. While key improvements over previous versions of the model are evident, these are not uniform across all metrics.

ocean model↗
NASA NTRS1994

Modeling the Relationships Between Aerosol Properties and the Direct and Indirect Effects of Aerosols on Climate

Aerosols may affect climate directly by scattering and absorbing visible and infrared energy, They may also affect climate indirectly by modifying the properties of clouds through microphysical processes, and by altering abundances of radiatively important gases through heterogeneous chemistry. Researchers understand which aerosol properties control the direct effect of aerosols on the radiation budget. Unfortunately, despite an abundance of data on certain types of aerosols, much work remains to be done to determine the values of these properties. For instance we have little idea about the global distribution, seasonal variation, or interannual variability of the aerosol optical depth. Also we do not know the visible light absorption properties of tropical aerosols which may contain much debris from slash and burn agriculture. A positive correlation between aerosol concentrations and albedos of marine stratus clouds is observed, and the causative microphysics is understood. However, models suggest that it is difficult to produce new particles in the marine boundary layer. Some modelers have suggested that the particles in the marine boundary layer may originate in the free troposphere and be transported into the boundary layer. Others argue that the aerosols are created in the marine boundary layer. There are no data linking aerosol concentration and cirrus cloud albedo, and models suggest cirrus properties may not be very sensitive to aerosol abundance. There is clear evidence of a radiatively significant change in the global lower stratospheric ozone abundance during the past few decades. These changes are caused by heterogeneous chemical reactions occurring on the surfaces of particles. The rates of these reactions depend upon the chemical composition of the particles. Although rapid advances in understanding heterogeneous chemistry have been made, much remains to be done.

Toon, Owen B.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Global Studies of the Sulfur Cycle Including the Influence of DMS and Fossil Fuel Sulfur on Climate and Climate Change

The indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosols, wherein aerosol particles are thought to increase cloud droplet concentrations and cloud lifetime, is the most uncertain component of climate forcing over the past 100 years. Here, for the first time, we use a mechanistic treatment of droplet nucleation and a prognostic treatment of the number of cloud droplets to study the indirect aerosol effect from changes in carbonaceous and sulfate aerosols. Cloud droplet nucleation is parameterized as a function of total aerosol number concentration, updraft velocity and a shape parameter, which takes into account the mechanism, of sulfate aerosol formation, while cloud droplet number depends on the nucleation as well as on droplet sinks. Whereas previous treatments have predicted annual average indirect effects between -1 and -2 W/sq m, we obtain an indirect aerosol effect between -0.14 W/sq m and -0.42 W/sq m in the global mean.

Penner, Joyce E.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Numerical case study of the aerosol–cloud interactions in warm boundary layer clouds over the eastern North Atlantic with an interactive chemistry module

The presence of warm boundary layer stratiform clouds over the eastern North Atlantic (ENA) region is commonly influenced by the Azores High, especially during the summer season. To investigate comprehensive aerosol–cloud interactions, this study employs the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a chemistry component (WRF-Chem), incorporating aerosol chemical components that are relevant to the formation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and accounting for aerosol spatiotemporal variation. This study focuses on aerosol indirect effects, particularly the long-range transport of aerosols, in the ENA region under three different weather regimes: a ridge with a surface high-pressure system, a post-trough with a surface high-pressure system, and a weak trough. The WRF-Chem simulations conducted at a near-large-eddy scale offer valuable insights into the model's performance, especially in terms of its ability to use high spatial resolution to capture mesoscale cloud features across various weather regimes. Our result shows that introducing 5 times more aerosols to either non-precipitating or precipitating clouds significantly increases ambient CCN numbers, resulting in, to varying degrees, higher liquid water path (LWP) values. The substantial aerosol–cloud interaction especially occurs in the precipitating clouds and demonstrates the susceptibility of the LWP to changes in CCN under different regimes. Conversely, thin, non-rain clouds at the edges of a cloud system are prone to evaporation, exhibiting an aerosol drying effect. The aerosols released during this process transition back to the accumulation mode, facilitating future activation. This dynamic behavior is not adequately represented in prescribed-aerosol simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗