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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Detecting Permafrost Active Layer Thickness Change From Nonlinear Baseflow Recession

We report permafrost underlies about one fifth of the global land area and affects ground stability, freshwater runoff, soil chemistry, and surface-atmosphere gas exchange. The depth of thawed ground overlying permafrost (active layer thickness) has broadly increased across the Arctic in recent decades, coincident with a period of increased streamflow, especially the lowest flows (baseflow). Mechanistic links between active layer thickness and baseflow have recently been explored using linear reservoir theory, but most watersheds behave as nonlinear reservoirs. We derive theoretical nonlinear relationships between long-term average saturated soil thickness $\bar{η}$(proxy for active layer thickness) and long-term average baseflow. When applied to 38 years of daily streamflow data for the Kuparuk River basin on the North Slope of Alaska, the theory predicts $\bar{η}$ increased 0.17 ± 0.22[2σ] cm a -1 between 1983 and 2020 (6.4 ± cm total). The rate of increase nearly doubled to 0.29 ± 0.31 cm a -1 between 1990 and 2020, during which time local field measurements from Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring sites indicate the active layer increased 0.31 ± 0.22 cm a -1 . The predicted rate of increase more than doubled again between 2002 and 2020, outpacing a near doubling of observed active layer thickening, consistent with trends in terrestrial water storage inferred from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellite gravimetry and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications climate reanalysis. Overall, hydrologic change is accelerating in the Kuparuk River basin, and we provide a theoretical framework for estimating basin-scale changes in active layer water storage from streamflow measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the impact of peat soils and snow schemes on simulated active layer thickness at pan-Arctic permafrost sites

Abstract Permafrost stability is significantly influenced by the thermal buffering effects of snow and active-layer peat soils. In the warm season, peat soils act as a barrier to downward heat transfer mainly due to their low thermal conductivity. In the cold season, the snowpack serves as a thermal insulator, retarding the release of heat from the soil to the atmosphere. Currently, many global land models overestimate permafrost soil temperature and active layer thickness (ALT), partially due to inaccurate representations of soil organic matter (SOM) density profiles and snow thermal insulation. In this study, we evaluated the impacts of SOM and snow schemes on ALT simulations at pan-Arctic permafrost sites using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). We conducted simulations at the Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) sites across the pan-Arctic domain. We improved ELM-simulated site-level ALT using a knowledge-based hierarchical optimization procedure and examined the effects of precipitation-phase partitioning methods (PPMs), snow compaction schemes, and snow thermal conductivity schemes on simulated snow depth, soil temperature, ALT, and CO 2 fluxes. Results showed that the optimized ELM significantly improved agreement with observed ALT (e.g. RMSE decreased from 0.83 m to 0.15 m). Our sensitivity analysis revealed that snow-related schemes significantly impact simulated snow thermal insulation levels, soil temperature, and ALT. For example, one of the commonly used snow thermal conductivity schemes (quadratic Sturm or SturmQua) generally produced warmer soil temperatures and larger ALT compared to the other two tested schemes. The SturmQua scheme also amplified the model’s sensitivity to PPMs and predicted deeper ALTs than the other two snow schemes under both current and future climates. The study highlights the importance of accurately representing snow-related processes and peat soils in land models to enhance permafrost dynamics simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning and process-based modeling of spatiotemporal changes in active layer thickness across Alaska

Permafrost degradation poses a growing threat to infrastructure stability and ecosystem resilience in the rapidly warming Arctic. We investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of active layer thickness (ALT) across Alaska by integrating field observations, environmental datasets, a physically based Stefan model, and machine learning (ML) techniques. Using weather projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5), we assessed ALT sensitivity to projected future weather conditions. The random forest (RF) model outperformed the Stefan approach in predicting ALT on the training dataset (R² = 0.84 vs. 0.53) but demonstrated lower generalizability on the test dataset (R² = 0.24 vs. 0.54). The root mean square error (RMSE) for the RF model for training and testing ranged from 14 to 22 cm, compared to 17 and 18 cm for the Stefan model. Variable importance analysis revealed that mean annual temperature and slope angle were the strongest predictors of ALT, accounting for 19% and 18% of the variance, respectively, followed by sediment transport index (14%) and stream power index (11%). Comparative analysis of baseline ALT predictions showed the Stefan model tended to project a thicker active layer (mean ± SD: 65 ± 16 cm), compared to the RF model (mean ± SD: 59 ± 8.8) cm). Both models indicated a latitudinal gradient in ALT, with shallower depths at higher latitudes. Projected ALT increases by 2100 were estimated at 3.3 ± 2.2 cm under SSP 2-4.5 and 5.9 ± 4.0 cm under SSP 5-8.5 for the ML model, whereas the Stefan model projected substantially larger increases of 13 ± 2.6 cm (SSP 2-4.5) and 28 ± 4.4 cm (SSP5-8.5). Spatial analysis showed the greatest ALT increases in northern Alaska, with relatively smaller changes in southern regions. These findings highlight the complex, multifactorial nature of ALT dynamics and the value of hybrid modeling approaches. As rising temperatures accelerate permafrost thaw, changes in ALT can disrupt ecosystems, damage infrastructures, and enhance the release of stored soil carbon, highlighting the urgent need for improved predictive capabilities to inform adaptation strategies in the Arctic.

Climate sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Solid Solvation Assisted Electrical Doping Conserves High‐Performance in 500 nm Active Layer Organic Solar Cells

Abstract Organic solar cells (OSCs) process fascinating solution‐printing capability to achieve low‐cost and large‐scale manufacture. However, the rapid power conversion efficiency (PCE) decay with active layer thickness enlargement inhibits the implement of OSCs’ potential advantages. To overcome the bottlenecks of PCE decay in thick active layer OSCs, the electrical doping with componential selectivity in bulk heterojunction (BHJ) film is achieved by introducing a solid solvation additive. Benefiting from the higher exciton splitting efficiency together with the longer drift (L dr ) and diffusion (L diff ) lengths, an OSC with 100 nm BHJ film demonstrates a PCE increment from 16.44% to 18.24% with prolonged dark and illuminated storage stabilities. Applying the solid solvation assisted (SSA) doping method in the OSCs with 500 nm active layer, the PCE significantly increases by 31.9%, from the original value of 11.79% to 15.55%. It further improves to 15.84% in a ternary blend thick‐film device, which is the record value to the best of our knowledge. Besides, the SSA doping narrows the PCE gap between the 0.04 and 1 cm 2 devices. All improvements demonstrate the great potential of SSA doping for OSC commercial manufacture, since it optimizes the photovoltaic performance under all practical conditions of long‐term, thick‐film, and large‐area.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hexanary blends: a strategy towards thermally stable organic photovoltaics

Non-fullerene based organic solar cells display a high initial power conversion efficiency but continue to suffer from poor thermal stability, especially in case of devices with thick active layers. Mixing of five structurally similar acceptors with similar electron affinities, and blending with a donor polymer is explored, yielding devices with a power conversion efficiency of up to 17.6%. The hexanary device performance is unaffected by thermal annealing of the bulk-heterojunction active layer for at least 23 days at 130 °C in the dark and an inert atmosphere. Moreover, hexanary blends offer a high degree of thermal stability for an active layer thickness of up to 390 nm, which is advantageous for high-throughput processing of organic solar cells. Here, a generic strategy based on multi-component acceptor mixtures is presented that permits to considerably improve the thermal stability of non-fullerene based devices and thus paves the way for large-area organic solar cells.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Vegetation heterogeneity reflects soil thermal state and surface soil displacement in a thawing permafrost landscape

Thawing permafrost has the potential to dramatically alter the physical and ecological structure of northern landscapes. Warming of the Arctic and subsequent degradation of permafrost have created a need to assess the stability and movement of soils on hillslopes and the potential impacts on ecosystem structure. In this work, we explore the relationships among vegetation heterogeneity, soil temperature, and soil surface displacements observed from 2019 to 2022 in a watershed in the discontinuous permafrost region on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Vegetation heterogeneity was measured as the standard deviation (SD) of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from 3 m PlanetScope satellite imagery around each soil temperature and active layer thickness observation. Locations of observations were clustered into three soil thermal groups, warm, intermediate, and cold, based on soil temperature and active layer thickness. Average annual horizontal surface displacements were significantly lower for soils within the warm thermal group (median = 0.033 m yr −1 ) compared to soils within the cold thermal group (median = 0.090 m yr −1 ; p < 0.001). Conversely, vegetation heterogeneity was significantly higher in the warm (median = 0.014 SD NDVI; p = 0.002) and intermediate (median = 0.015 SD NDVI; p = 0.002) groups compared with the cold thermal group (median = 0.012 SD NDVI), suggesting a warming-induced shift in vegetation community complexity. Because of the observed associations of ground surface displacement rates and vegetation heterogeneity with soil thermal state, we hypothesize that warming soil conditions induce changes in the rates and patterns of hillslope erosion due to an increase in surface movement as near-surface permafrost thaws, followed by a decrease as the permafrost table deepens and excess ice content diminishes. The transition to warm soils promotes surface ecosystem transformation, shifting the dominant vegetation at the site, given the warming climatic conditions of the region. We integrated our observations of soil temperature, vegetation heterogeneity, and soil surface displacements into a conceptual model that describes the co-evolution of hillslopes and vegetation in warming permafrost environments, which is currently unrepresented in earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evidence That Sharp Interfaces Suppress Recombination in Thick Organic Solar Cells

Commercialization and scale-up of organic solar cells (OSCs) using industrial solution printing requires maintaining maximum performance at active-layer thicknesses >400 nm – a characteristic still not generally achieved in non-fullerene acceptor OSCs. NT812:PC71BM is a rare system whose performance increases up to these thicknesses due to highly suppressed charge recombination relative to the classic Langevin model. The suppression in this system, however, uniquely depends on device processing, pointing towards the role of nano-morphology. We investigate the morphological origins of this suppressed recombination by combining results from a suite of X-ray techniques. We are surprised to find that while all investigated devices are composed of pure, similarly aggregated nanodomains, Langevin reduction factors can still be tuned from ~2 to >1000. This indicates that pure aggregated phases are insufficient for non-Langevin (reduced) recombination. Instead, we find that large well-ordered conduits and, in particular, sharp interfaces between domains appear to help to keep opposite charges separated and percolation pathways clear for enhanced charge collection in thick active layers. To our knowledge, this is the first quantitative study to isolate donor/acceptor interfacial width correlated to non-Langevin charge recombination. Furthermore, this new structure-property relationship will be key to successful commercialization of printed OSCs at scale.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the role of lateral surface flow in low‐relief polygonal tundra

Abstract Ice‐wedge polygon troughs play an important role in controlling the hydrology of low‐relief polygonal tundra regions. Lateral surface flow is confined to troughs only, but it is often neglected in model projections of permafrost thermal hydrology. Recent field and modeling studies have shown that, after rain events, increases in trough water levels are significantly more than the observed precipitation, highlighting the role of lateral surface flow in the polygonal tundra. Therefore, understanding how trough lateral surface flow can influence polygonal tundra thermal hydrology is important, especially under projected changes in temperatures and rainfall in the Arctic regions. Using an integrated cryohydrology model, this study presents plot‐scale end‐of‐century projections of ice‐wedge polygon water budget components and active layer thickness with and without trough lateral surface flow under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario. Trough lateral surface flow is incorporated through a newly developed empirical model, evaluated against field measurements. The numerical scenario that includes trough lateral surface flow simulates discharge (outflow from a polygon) and recharge (rain‐induced inflow to a polygon trough from upslope areas), while the scenario that does not include trough lateral surface flow ignores recharge. The results show considerable reduction (about 100–150%) in evapotranspiration and discharge in rainy years in the scenarios ignoring trough lateral surface flow, but less effect on soil water storage, in comparison with the scenario with trough lateral surface flow. In addition, the results demonstrate long‐term changes (~10–15 cm increase) in active layer thickness when trough lateral surface flow is modeled. This study highlights the importance of including lateral surface flow processes to better understand the long‐term thermal and hydrological changes in low‐relief polygonal tundra regions under a changing climate.

Jan, Ahmad↗
DOE OSTI2023

How does humidity data impact land surface modeling of hydrothermal regimes at a permafrost site in Utqia$\mathrm{\dot{g}}$vik, Alaska?

Humidity is a basic and crucial meteorological indicator commonly measured in several forms, including specific humidity, relative humidity, and absolute humidity. These different forms can be inter-derived based on the saturation vapor pressure (SVP). In past decades, dozens of formulae have been developed to calculate the SVP with respect to, and in equilibrium with, liquid water and solid ice surfaces, but many prior studies use a single function for all temperature ranges, without considering the distinction between over the liquid water and ice surfaces. These different approaches can result in humidity estimates that may impact our understanding of surface-subsurface thermal-hydrological dynamics in cold regions. In this study, we compared the relative humidity (RH) downloaded and calculated from four data sources in Alaska based on five commonly used SVP formulas. These RHs, along with other meteorological indicators, were then used to drive physics-rich land surface models at a permafrost-affected site. Here, we found that higher values of RH (up to 40%) were obtained if the SVP was calculated with the over-ice formulation when air temperatures were below freezing, which could lead to a 30% maximum difference in snow depths. The choice of whether to separately calculate the SVP over an ice surface in winter also produced a significant range (up to 0.2 m) in simulated annual maximum thaw depths. The sensitivity of seasonal thaw depth to the formulation of SVP increases with the rainfall rate and the height of above-ground ponded water, while it diminishes with warmer air temperatures. These results show that RH variations based on the calculation of SVP with or without over-ice calculation meaningfully impact physically-based predictions of snow depth, sublimation, soil temperature, and active layer thickness. Under particular conditions, when severe flooding (inundation) and cool air temperatures are present, care should be taken to evaluate how humidity data is estimated for land surface and earth system modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Soil Temperature and Moisture within the Kougarok Fire Complex, Kougarok Road Mile Marker 86, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2019-2023

Daily averages of soil temperature and moisture measured once every hour at different heights located at Intensive Monitoring Stations within the Kougarok Fire Complex, Kougarok Road Mile Marker 86 site. Data were retrieved annually from 2019-2023. Package contains 21 *.CSV data files plus a file level metadata *.CSV, data dictionary *.CSV, data file inventory *.CSV, and sensor location site map *.JPG. Data files have header rows, NaN fields indicate invalid or missing data, and negative vertical offsets are above ground.The Kougarok tundra fire complex (KFC) is located north of Nome and the Kigluaik Mountains, near Quartz Creek and the Kougarok River. The site is accessed by foot from the end of the Nome-Taylor Highway (mile marker 86; also called the Kougarok or Beam Road). The KFC burned in six major fires in the decades since 1950 (Alaska Interagency Coordination Center, unpublished data). Lightning ignited five of these fires (1971, 1997, 2015, and 2019) and one was human caused (2002). The mosaic of overlapping fire scars allows for the study of repeat fires in the tundra which, until recently, was not a common phenomenon outside the boreal forest in Alaska. Our reference unburned tundra fire site is south of the KFC located at mile marker 80 of the Nome-Taylor Highway.The two most recent fires are the Mingvk Lake (2015; 21,698 acres burned from 7/27/2015 to 9/28/2015) and Garfield Creek (2019; 422 acres burned from 7/31/2019 to 8/20/19). The Mingvk Lake fire scar includes areas that burned 1-4x (1971, 1997, 2002), while the entirety of the Garfield Creek fire scar has burned 2x previously (1971, 2002).Previous research at the KFC focused on permafrost (Liljedahl et al. 2007; Narita et al. 2015; Iwahana et al. 2016; Tsuyuzaki, Iwahana, and Saito 2017) and vegetation (Narita et al. 2015; Hollingsworth et al. 2021) response to fire. The central Seward Peninsula is characterized by continuous permafrost with a thickness of 15 to 30 m and a mean active layer thickness of 56 cm (Hinzman et al. 2003). Sloping hills with mixed shrub–tussock tundra and tussock tundra vegetation in the uplands are characteristic of the region. Three micrometeorological towers near the Kougarok field site recorded a mean annual temperature of −2.4°C, mean January temperature of −23.1°C, mean July temperature of +11°C, and mean summer rainfall (June–August) of 94 mm from 2000 to 2006 (Liljedahl et al. 2007).The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Probing drift velocity dispersion in MAPbI 3 photovoltaic cells with nonlinear photocurrent spectroscopy

Conventional time-of-flight (TOF) measurements yield charge carrier mobilities in photovoltaic cells with time resolution limited by the RC time constant of the device, which is on the order of 0.1–1 µs for the systems targeted in the present work. We have recently developed an alternate TOF method, termed nonlinear photocurrent spectroscopy (NLPC), in which carrier drift velocities are determined with picosecond time resolution by applying a pair of laser pulses to a device with an experimentally controlled delay time. In this technique, carriers photoexcited by the first laser pulse are “probed” by way of recombination processes involving carriers associated with the second laser pulse. Here, we report NLPC measurements conducted with a simplified experimental apparatus in which synchronized 40 ps diode lasers enable delay times up to 100 µs at 5 kHz repetition rates. Carrier mobilities of ∼0.025 cm 2 /V/s are determined for MAPbI 3 photovoltaic cells with active layer thicknesses of 240 and 460 nm using this instrument. Here, our experiments and model calculations suggest that the nonlinear response of the photocurrent weakens as the carrier densities photoexcited by the first laser pulse trap and broaden while traversing the active layer of a device. Based on this aspect of the signal generation mechanism, experiments conducted with co-propagating and counter-propagating laser beam geometries are leveraged to determine a 60 nm length scale of drift velocity dispersion in MAPbI 3 films. Contributions from localized states induced by thermal fluctuations are consistent with drift velocity dispersion on this length scale.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatially Averaged Ice Contents of Ice-Wedge Polygon Cross-Sections to 3-m Depth, July 2013, Utqiagvik, Alaska

This dataset contains spatially averaged estimates of ice content (volume percent) for two-dimensional cross-sectional profiles (from trough center to trough center to a depth of 3 meters) of low- and flat-centered ice-wedge polygons (three of each type) located near Utqiagvik, Alaska. A combination of soil pits, trenches, and cores were used to describe, sample, and map the cross-section stratigraphy of soil horizons and ice wedges for each polygon at 6 depth intervals. Observed soil horizons were assigned to four types with increasing amounts of organic components (mineral, mineral/organic, organic/mineral, and organic). The average ice contents of each soil horizon type below the permafrost boundary and wedge ice were weighted by their cross-sectional area fractions to calculate spatially averaged estimates of ice content for each polygon. In the active layer, spatially averaged estimates of volumetric water contents were similarly determined and reported here as “ice” content to enable estimates of the soil’s structurally competent porosity and excess ice in permafrost layers. In this dataset, the file AK13_ice_contents.csv includes cross-sectional area fractions and spatially averaged ice contents for soil layers and horizon types at the six depth intervals. The file AK13_permafrost_ice_fractions.csv contains the calculated partitioning of ice contents into pore ice and excess ice fractions for the three permafrost-dominated depth intervals. In addition, there is a data dictionary file for each of these data files and a file-level metadata file. These data were generated by the Department of Energy’s Soil Carbon Response to Environmental Change Scientific Focus Area and were used as inputs to model simulations examining the consequences of thaw-affected subsidence and microtopography change on active layer thickness of low-relief polygonal tundra landscapes in a warming Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Drying of tundra landscapes will limit subsidence-induced acceleration of permafrost thaw

We used a model for permafrost hydrology informed by detailed measurements of soil ice content to better understand the potential risk of abrupt permafrost thaw triggered by melting ground ice, a key open question associated with permafrost response to a warming Arctic. Our spatially resolved simulations of a well-characterized site in polygonal tundra near Utqiaġvik, Alaska, agree well with multiple types of observations in the current climate. Projections indicate 63 cm of bulk subsidence from 2006 to 2100 in the strong-warming Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate. Permafrost thaw as measured by the increase in active layer thickness (ALT)—the thickness of the soil layer that thaws each summer—is accelerated by subsidence, but the effect is relatively small. The ALT increases from the current-day value of approximately 50 cm to approximately 180 cm by 2100 when subsidence is included compared to about 160 cm when it is neglected. In these simulations, previously identified positive feedbacks between subsidence and thaw are self-limiting on decadal time frames because landscape runoff and increasing evapotranspiration result in drier tundra with weaker surface/atmosphere coupling. These results for a tundra site that is representative of large swathes of the Alaska North Slope suggest that subsidence is unlikely to lead to abrupt thaw over large areas. However, subsidence does have significant effects on the hydrology of polygonal tundra. Specifically, subsidence increases landscape runoff, which helps maintain streamflow in the face of increased evapotranspiration but also causes drier tundra conditions that could have deleterious effects on sensitive Arctic wetland ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska with artificial intelligence

Abstract Positive feedbacks between permafrost degradation and the release of soil carbon into the atmosphere impact land–atmosphere interactions, disrupt the global carbon cycle, and accelerate climate change. The widespread distribution of thawing permafrost is causing a cascade of geophysical and biochemical disturbances with global impacts. Currently, few earth system models account for permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) mechanisms. This research study integrates artificial intelligence (AI) tools and information derived from field-scale surveys across the tundra and boreal landscapes in Alaska. We identify and interpret the permafrost carbon cycling links and feedback sensitivities with GeoCryoAI, a hybridized multimodal deep learning (DL) architecture of stacked convolutionally layered, memory-encoded recurrent neural networks (NN). This framework integratesin-situmeasurements and flux tower observations for teacher forcing and model training. Preliminary experiments to quantify, validate, and forecast permafrost degradation and carbon efflux across Alaska demonstrate the fidelity of this data-driven architecture. More specifically, GeoCryoAI logs the ecological memory and effectively learns covariate dynamics while demonstrating an aptitude to simulate and forecast PCF dynamics—active layer thickness (ALT), carbon dioxide flux (CO 2 ), and methane flux (CH 4 )—with high precision and minimal loss (i.e. ALT RMSE : 1.327 cm [1969–2022]; CO 2 RMSE : 0.697µmolCO 2 m −2 s −1 [2003–2021]; CH 4 RMSE : 0.715 nmolCH 4 m −2 s −1 [2011–2022]). ALT variability is a sensitive harbinger of change, a unique signal characterizing the PCF, and our model is the first characterization of these dynamics across space and time.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2021

Permafrost thaw driven changes in hydrology and vegetation cover increase trace gas emissions and climate forcing in Stordalen Mire from 1970 to 2014

Permafrost thaw increases active layer thickness, changes landscape hydrology and influences vegetation species composition. These changes alter belowground microbial and geochemical processes, affecting production, consumption and net emission rates of climate forcing trace gases. Net carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) fluxes determine the radiative forcing contribution from these climate-sensitive ecosystems. Permafrost peatlands may be a mosaic of dry frozen hummocks, semi-thawed or perched sphagnum dominated areas, wet permafrost-free sedge dominated sites and open water ponds. We revisited estimates of climate forcing made for 1970 and 2000 for Stordalen Mire in northern Sweden and found the trend of increasing forcing continued into 2014. The Mire continued to transition from dry permafrost to sedge and open water areas, increasing by 100% and 35%, respectively, over the 45-year period, causing the net radiative forcing of Stordalen Mire to shift from negative to positive. This trend is driven by transitioning vegetation community composition, improved estimates of annual CO 2 and CH 4 exchange and a 22% increase in the IPCC's 100-year global warming potential (GWP_100) value for CH 4 . These results indicate that discontinuous permafrost ecosystems, while still remaining a net overall sink of C, can become a positive feedback to climate change on decadal timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Topography, surface water distribution and subsurface structure in 2023 across an Arctic coastal tundra site near Utqiagvik, Alaska

Subsurface electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), active layer thickness measurements, photogrammetry, and topographic data were collected in September 2023 along a 475 m long, 20 m wide corridor that traverses various polygon types within the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) on the Alaskan Arctic Coastal Plain, approximately 4 miles from the Beaufort Sea near Utqiaġvik, Alaska. These measurements were designed to assess decadal changes in surface water distribution, topography, and subsurface structure across this dynamic landscape. This archive contains the datasets acquired in 2023 and references to the datasets acquired previously at the same location. The ERT survey was conducted along the 475 m transect using 0.5 m electrode spacing and a roll-along acquisition strategy. Thaw layer thicknesses were measured with a tile probe along the same transect. Photogrammetry data were acquired using an unoccupied aerial vehicle (UAV) and were used to generate a digital elevation model and an RGB mosaic. A real-time kinematic (RTK) GPS was used to survey the ERT electrodes and the ground control points for the aerial imagery. The dataset contains 5 *.csv data files, 6 *.csv metadata files, and 6 *.tif files.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Runoff evaluation in an Earth System Land Model for permafrost regions in Alaska

Modeling of hydrological runoff is essential for accurately capturing spatiotemporal feedbacks within the land–atmosphere system, particularly in sensitive regions such as permafrost landscapes. However, substantial uncertainties persist in the terrestrial runoff parameterization schemes used in Earth system and land surface models. This is particularly true in permafrost regions, where landscape heterogeneity is high and reliable observational data are scarce. In this study, we evaluate the performance of runoff parameterization schemes in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Our proposed framework leverages simulation results from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS), which is a physics-based integrated surface/subsurface hydrologic model that has been successfully evaluated previously in Arctic tundra regions. We used ATS to simulate runoff from 22 representative hillslopes in the Sagavanirktok River basin, located on the North Slope of Alaska, then compared the output with ELM's parameterized representation of total runoff. Results show that (1) ELM's total runoff was the same order of magnitude as the ATS simulations, and both models were similarly variable over time; (2) minor adjustments to coefficients in ELM's runoff parameterization improved the match between the ATS simulation and ELM's parameterized representation of annual and seasonal total runoff; (3) overall, runoff responses in ATS and ELM are more similar in flat hillslope environments compared to steep hillslopes; and (4) shallower active layer thicknesses and higher precipitation simulations resulted in lower correlations between the two models due to greater total runoff. By incorporating the optimized runoff coefficients from the Sagavanirktok River basin into ELM, the simulated total runoff better matched the streamflow observations at a small watershed located on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Our findings revealed important insights into the effectiveness of runoff parameterizations in land surface models and pathways for improving runoff coefficients in typical Arctic regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Brief communication: Decadal changes in topography, surface water and subsurface structure across an Arctic coastal tundra site

Abstract. In ice-rich polygonal tundra, spatiotemporal heterogeneity in ground-ice melt reshapes topography, impacting infrastructure, water and carbon cycles. This study evaluates changes in topography and subsurface structure at a coastal Arctic site by comparing data from two surveys conducted a decade apart. Each survey includes electrical resistivity tomography, active layer thickness, photogrammetry, and topographic data. Results reveal subsidence and decrease in permafrost table elevation with varying intensity and spatial distribution across polygons, alongside diverse thermal-hydrological responses, such as thermokarst pool formation in high-centered-polygons and more even subsidence in flat-centered-polygons. The study also underscores the value and limitations of sporadic surveys.

Bachman, Jonathan A↗