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At least 19 records

Trending in Probability of Collision Measurements via a Bayesian Zero-Inflated Beta Mixed Model

We investigate the performance of a generalized linear mixed model in predicting the Probabilities of Collision (Pc) for conjunction events. Specifically, we apply this model to the log(sub 10) transformation of these probabilities and argue that this transformation yields values that can be considered bounded in practice. Additionally, this bounded random variable, after scaling, is zero-inflated. Consequently, we model these values using the zero-inflated Beta distribution, and utilize the Bayesian paradigm and the mixed model framework to borrow information from past and current events. This provides a natural way to model the data and provides a basis for answering questions of interest, such as what is the likelihood of observing a probability of collision equal to the effective value of zero on a subsequent observation.

Conjuction Assessment↗

Trending in Pc Measurements via a Bayesian Zero-Inflated Mixed Model

Two satellites predicted to come within close proximity of one another, usually a high-value satellite and a piece of space debris moving the active satellite is a means of reducing collision risk but reduces satellite lifetime, perturbs satellite mission, and introduces its own risks. So important to get a good statement of the risk of collision in order to determine whether a maneuver is truly necessary. Two aspects of this Calculation of the Probability of Collision (Pc) based on the most recent set of position velocity and uncertainty data for both satellites. Examination of the changes in the Pc value as the event develops. Events should follow a canonical development (Pc vs time to closest approach (TCA)). Helpful to be able to guess where the present data point fits in the canonical development in order to guide operational response.

Conjuction Assessment↗

Territory and Population Attributes Affect Florida Scrub-Jay Fecundity in Fire Adapted Ecosystems

Fecundity, the number of young produced by a breeding pair during a breeding season, is a primary component in evolutionary and ecological theory and applications. Fecundity can be influenced by many environmental factors and requires long-term study due to the range of variation in ecosystem dynamics. Fecundity data often include a large proportion of zeros when many pairs fail to produce any young during a breeding season due to nest failure or when all young die independently after fledging. We conducted color banding and monthly censuses of Florida scrub-jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens) across 31 years, 15 populations, and 761 territories along central Florida’s Atlantic coast. We quantified how fecundity (juveniles/pair-year) was influenced by habitat quality, presence/absence of nonbreeders, population density, breeder experience, and rainfall, with a zero-inflated Bayesian hierarchical model including both a Bernoulli (e.g., brood success) and a Poisson (counts of young) submodel, and random effects for year, population, and territory. The results identified the importance of increasing “strong” quality habitat, which was a mid-successional state related to fire frequency and extent, because strong territories, and the proportion of strong territories in the overall population, influenced fecundity of breeding pairs. Populations subject to supplementary feeding also had greater fecundity. Territory size, population density, breeder experience, and rainfall surprisingly had no or small effects. Different mechanisms appeared to cause annual variation in fecundity, as estimates of random effects were not correlated between the success and count submodels. The increased fecundity for pairs with nonbreeders, compared to pairs without, identified empirical research needed to understand how the proportion of low-quality habitats influences population recovery and sustainability, because dispersal into low-quality habitats can drain nonbreeders from strong territories and decrease overall fecundity. We also describe how long term study resulted in reversals in our understanding because of complications involving habitat quality, sociobiology, and population density.

Long-term studies↗

Tire footprint studies

This presentation covers the results of tire footprint studies conducted in the Landing Gear Development Facility of the USAF Wright Laboratory at the Wright Patterson Air force Base, OH. Tire footprint studies are essential in understanding tire wear mechanisms and computing tire tread wear rates. The power input into the tread is the driving force for tread wear. Variables needed for power input calculations include the footprint pressure and slip velocity distributions. Studies were performed on the effects of power input distributions due to vertical load, camber, yaw, inflation pressure, and tire construction. For the present study, two tire constructions, one radial and the other bias, were selected. These tires were for the F-16 Block 30 fighter aircraft, both of which were previously worn. The present study was limited to steady straight roll with a 14,000 lb vertical load, a 310 psi inflation pressure, and zero yaw and camber. All tests were conducted on the Tire Force Machine (TFM) with a specialized sensor plate with embedded pressure sensors (X, Y, and Z) and slip sensors (X and Y). All tests were conducted for a table speed of 1 in/s. Tests on the TFM show that the power intensity distributions and total power for both tire constructions are quite similar for straight roll. Later on, tests were also conducted on a modified dynamometer which was overlaid with a grit wear surface. The tire speed was maintained at 40 miles per hour and yaw was set to four degrees. Dynamometer tests showed that radial tires have more tread wear than the bias tire; however, in the field, radial tires have longer life.

Chawla, Mangal↗

Quick-disconnect inflatable seal assembly

A zero-leak cryogenic coupling includes a polymeric seal clamped to a male bayonet member with two pairs of tightening rings. The tightening rings threadably engage each other in respective pairs around tapered ends of the inflatable seal member so that a wedging action tightness the seal member about the male bayonet. Once in place, the seal may be inflated via an inflation port so that its expansion provides a pressure contact with the inside surface of a coaxial female member.

Kurt D Buehler↗

Evaluation of Design Concepts for Collapsible Cryogenic Storage Vessels

Future long-duration missions to Mars using in situ resource production to obtain oxygen from the Martian atmosphere for use as a propellant or for life support will require long term oxygen storage facilities. This report describes preliminary analysis of design concepts for lightweight, collapsible liquid oxygen storage tanks to be used on the surface of Mars. With storage at relatively low pressures, an inflatable tank concept in which the cryogen is stored within a fiber-reinforced Teflon FEP bladder is an efficient approach. The technology required for such a tank is well-developed through similar previous applications in positive expulsion bladders for zero-g liquid fuel rocket tanks and inflatable space habitat technology, though the liquid oxygen environment presents unique challenges. The weight of the proposed structure is largely dominated by the support structure needed to hold the tank off the ground and permit a vacuum insulation space to be maintained around the tank. In addition to the inflatable tank concept, telescoping tank concepts are studied. For a telescoping tank, the greatest difficulty is in making effective joints and seals. The use of shape memory alloy to produce a passive clamping ring is evaluated. Although the telescoping tank concepts are a viable option, it appears that inflatable tank concepts will be more efficient and are recommended.

Fleming, David C.↗

Inflatable Re-Entry Vehicle Experiment (IRVE) Design Overview

Inflatable aeroshells offer several advantages over traditional rigid aeroshells for atmospheric entry. Inflatables offer increased payload volume fraction of the launch vehicle shroud and the possibility to deliver more payload mass to the surface for equivalent trajectory constraints. An inflatable s diameter is not constrained by the launch vehicle shroud. The resultant larger drag area can provide deceleration equivalent to a rigid system at higher atmospheric altitudes, thus offering access to higher landing sites. When stowed for launch and cruise, inflatable aeroshells allow access to the payload after the vehicle is integrated for launch and offer direct access to vehicle structure for structural attachment with the launch vehicle. They also offer an opportunity to eliminate system duplication between the cruise stage and entry vehicle. There are however several potential technical challenges for inflatable aeroshells. First and foremost is the fact that they are flexible structures. That flexibility could lead to unpredictable drag performance or an aerostructural dynamic instability. In addition, durability of large inflatable structures may limit their application. They are susceptible to puncture, a potentially catastrophic insult, from many possible sources. Finally, aerothermal heating during planetary entry poses a significant challenge to a thin membrane. NASA Langley Research Center and NASA's Wallops Flight Facility are jointly developing inflatable aeroshell technology for use on future NASA missions. The technology will be demonstrated in the Inflatable Re-entry Vehicle Experiment (IRVE). This paper will detail the development of the initial IRVE inflatable system to be launched on a Terrier/Orion sounding rocket in the fourth quarter of CY2005. The experiment will demonstrate achievable packaging efficiency of the inflatable aeroshell for launch, inflation, leak performance of the inflatable system throughout the flight regime, structural integrity when exposed to a relevant dynamic pressure and aerodynamic stability of the inflatable system. Structural integrity and structural response of the inflatable will be verified with photogrammetric measurements of the back side of the aeroshell in flight. Aerodynamic stability as well as drag performance will be verified with on board inertial measurements and radar tracking from multiple ground radar stations. The experiment will yield valuable information about zero-g vacuum deployment dynamics of the flexible inflatable structure with both inertial and photographic measurements. In addition to demonstrating inflatable technology, IRVE will validate structural, aerothermal, and trajectory modeling techniques for the inflatable. Structural response determined from photogrammetrics will validate structural models, skin temperature measurements and additional in-depth temperature measurements will validate material thermal performance models, and on board inertial measurements along with radar tracking from multiple ground radar stations will validate trajectory simulation models.

Hughes, Stephen J.↗

Inflatable Softgoods Design of an Articulating Crew Transfer Tunnel

Future NASA exploration plans call for lunar and Martian surface systems that form a base camp of multiple, pressurized elements. These discrete components, including habitats and pressurized rovers, require interoperability to meet the Artemis Accords and standard docking systems to physically connect elements together. A pressurized, articulating crew transfer tunnel can be used between a rover and habitat to enable shirt-sleeve transfer of crew and cargo, saving valuable crew time and resources. While transfer tunnels have been described in the past, this work details the design of a structural softgoods system that has compliant capability through a proposed docking range of motion. The inflatable softgoods design is based on a zero-hoop stress shape, known as a Taylor surface, that is stacked and truncated to form a unique and flexible configuration. Analytical, non-linear models have been developed to examine and predict the behavior of the structure, and material testing was used to determine the properties that were used in the model. Finally, a sub-scale test article was constructed using the baseline design and pressurized testing is in work. Additional full-scale testing is planned for future years to fully demonstrate the capability of the system.

Tunnel↗

Inflatable Softgoods Design of an Articulating Crew Transfer Tunnel

Future NASA exploration plans call for lunar and Martian surface systems that form a base camp of multiple, pressurized elements. These discrete components, including habitats and pressurized rovers, require interoperability to meet the Artemis Accords and standard docking systems to physically connect elements together. A pressurized, articulating crew transfer tunnel can be used between a rover and habitat to enable shirt-sleeve transfer of crew and cargo, saving valuable crew time and resources. While transfer tunnels have been described in the past, this work details the design of a structural softgoods system that has compliant capability through a proposed docking range of motion. The inflatable softgoods design is based on a zero-hoop stress shape, known as a Taylor surface, that is stacked and truncated to form a unique and flexible configuration. Analytical, non-linear models have been developed to examine and predict the behavior of the structure, and material testing was used to determine the properties that were used in the model. Finally, a sub-scale test article was constructed using the baseline design and pressurized testing is in work. Additional full-scale testing is planned for future years to fully demonstrate the capability of the system.

Tunnel↗

Balloon film strain measurement

A discussion is presented of the results of a flight test program in which scientific research balloon material strain was measured in order to determine stress levels. Attention is given to material strain characteristics during the inflation, launch, ascent, and flight of a natural shape, zero-pressure scientific balloon. Measurements were conducted with a simple thin film strain transducer. Thermal, meridional and circumferential strain history data for the test flight are given.

Rand, J. L.↗

Orbital Workshop Concept

This is a concept for a system that can perform certain aspects of recycling/manufacturing/integration/servicing in zero-g & low-g space environments. The system consists of a slowly rotating inflatable tube that surrounds a system being worked on. This design captures debris by generating artificial gravity, thereby allowing “dirty” manufacturing/ recycling/ integration/ servicing techniques and enables loading/unloading of large systems. The system encapsulates the piece being worked on and uses an internal robotic arm with appropriate tools. This system is designed to complement the abilities of the Orbital Collector (see NTR 1660756036).

manufacturing↗

Dark energy and the cosmic microwave background radiation

We find that current cosmic microwave background anisotropy data strongly constrain the mean spatial curvature of the Universe to be near zero, or, equivalently, the total energy density to be near critical-as predicted by inflation. This result is robust to editing of data sets, and variation of other cosmological parameters (totaling seven, including a cosmological constant). Other lines of argument indicate that the energy density of nonrelativistic matter is much less than critical. Together, these results are evidence, independent of supernovae data, for dark energy in the Universe.

Microwaves↗

Dual-Compartment Inflatable Suitlock

There is a need for an improvement over current NASA Extravehicular Activity (EVA) technology. The technology must allow the capacity for quicker, more efficient egress/ingress, allow for shirtsleeve suit maintenance, be compact in transport, and be applicable to environments ranging from planetary surface (partial-g) to orbital or deep space zero-g environments. The technology must also be resistant to dust and other foreign contaminants that may be present on or around a planetary surface. The technology should be portable, and be capable of docking with a variety of habitats, ports, stations, vehicles, and other pressurized modules. The Dual-Compartment Inflatable Suitlock (DCIS) consists of three hard inline bulkheads, separating two cylindrical membrane-walled compartments. The Inner Bulkhead can be fitted with a variety of hatch types, docking flanges, and mating hardware, such as the Common Berthing Mechanism (CBM), for the purpose of mating with vehicles, habitats, and other pressurized modules. The Inner Bulkhead and Center Bulkhead function as the end walls of the Inner Compartment, which during operations, would stay pressurized, either matching the pressure of the habitat or acting as a lower-pressure transitional volume. The Inner Compartment contains donning/doffing fixtures and inner suit-port hatches. The Center Bulkhead has two integrated suit-ports along with a maintenance hatch. The Center Bulkhead and Outer Bulkhead function as the end walls of the Outer Compartment, which stays at vacuum during normal operations. This allows the crewmember to quickly don a suit, and egress the suitlock without waiting for the Outer Compartment to depressurize. The Outer Compartment can be pressurized infrequently for both nominal and off-nominal suit maintenance tasks, allowing shirtsleeve inspections and maintenance/repair of the environmental suits. The Outer Bulkhead has a pressure-assisted hatch door that stays open and stowed during EVA operations, but can be closed for environmental protection of the suits, suit maintenance, and pressurization.

Kennedy, Kriss J.↗

Plateaus and Sinuous Ridges as the Fingerprints of Lava Flow Inflation in the Eastern Tharsis Plains of Mars

The Tharsis Montes rift aprons are composed of outpourings of lava from chaotic terrains to the northeast and southwest flank of each volcano. Sinuous and branching channel networks that are present on the rift aprons suggest the possibility of fluvial processes in their development, or erosion by rapidly emplaced lavas, but the style of lava flow emplacement throughout rift apron development is not clearly understood. To better characterize the style of lava emplacement and role of fluvial processes in rift apron development, we conducted morphological mapping of the Pavonis Mons southwest rift apron and the eastern Tharsis plains using images from the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE), Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC), Context Camera (CTX), Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS), and High Resolution Stereo Camera (HRSC) along with the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) Precision Experiment Data Records (PEDRs) and gridded data. Our approach was to: (1) search for depositional fans at the slope break between the rift apron and adjacent low slope plains; (2) determine if there is evidence that previously formed deposits might have been buried by plains units; (3) characterize the Tharsis plains morphologies east of Pavonis Mons; and (4) assess their relationship to the rift apron units. We have not identified topographically significant depositional fans, nor did we observe evidence to suggest that plains units have buried older rift apron units. Flow features associated with the rift apron are observed to continue across the slope break onto the plains. In this area, the plains are composed of a variety of small fissures and low shield vents around which broad channel-fed and tube-fed flows have been identified. We also find broad, flat-topped plateaus and sinuous ridges mixed among the channels, tubes and vents. Flat-topped plateaus and sinuous ridges are morphologies that are analogous to those observed on the coastal plain of Hawai'i, where lava flows have advanced from the volcano's several degree flank onto the nearly zero degree coastal plain. When local volumetric flow rates are low, flow fronts tend to spread laterally and often thicken via endogenous growth, or inflation, of the sheet-like flow units. If flow advance is restricted by existing topography into narrow pathways, inflation can be focused into sinuous, elongate ridges. The presence of plateaus and ridges-emplaced from the rift zones, across the plains to the east of Pavonis Mons-and a lack of fan-like features, or evidence for their burial, are consistent with rift apron lavas crossing a slope break with low local volumetric flow rates that led to inflation of sheet-like and tube-fed lava flows.

Bleacher, Jacob E.↗

Helium Balloon Valve Improvement

The NASA Balloon Program Office (BPO), located at Wallops Flight Facility asked the Mechanical Systems Branch (Code 548) to improve the design of their balloon valve. BPO uses two main types of balloons, Zero Pressure Balloon (ZPB) and Super Pressure Balloon (SPB), which both use the valve. It is used for termination of the ZPB, and inflation and termination of the SPB. During launch campaigns the valve showed signs of helium leakage which lead the BPO to ask for an improvement. As part of a Professional Readiness Engineering Program (PREP), research and review of the current valve was conducted and a new design was prepared. The current custom designed valve consists of a "pie" plate that is actuated up and down via a gear rack that is driven by a globe motor. When closed the knife edge of the pie plate bites into a silicone gasket to seal the structure. Unfortunately, the gasket material permanently deforms after being compressed and the plate itself bends under the force induced by the motor, introducing two possible helium leak paths. The new custom designed valve utilizes o-rings instead of one gasket to reduce the possibility of leakage from permanent deformation. One o-ring seals the valve structure to its mating surface and a spring energized o-ring is used in a piston design to seal the valve once it's closed. The design also utilizes different materials to increase stiffness and strength so that it is less likely to bend under the force from the motor. Currently the new valve has finished the design and analysis phases and is proceeding towards manufacturing and testing.

Seo, Lindsey↗

TOI-1518b: A Misaligned Ultra-hot Jupiter with Iron in Its Atmosphere

We present the discovery of TOI-1518b—an ultra-hot Jupiter orbiting a bright star (V = 8.95). The transiting planet is confirmed using high-resolution optical transmission spectra from EXPRES. It is inflated, with Rp = 1.875 ± 0.053 RJ, and exhibits several interesting properties, including a misaligned orbit (240.34 (+0.93, -0.98) degrees) and nearly grazing transit (b=0.9036 (+0.0061, -0.0053)). The planet orbits a fast-rotating F0 host star (Teff ≃ 7300 K) in 1.9 days and experiences intense irradiation. Notably, the TESS data show a clear secondary eclipse with a depth of 364 ± 28 ppm and a significant phase-curve signal, from which we obtain a relative day–night planetary flux difference of roughly 320 ppm and a 5.2σ detection of ellipsoidal distortion on the host star. Prompted by recent detections of atomic and ionized species in ultra-hot Jupiter atmospheres, we conduct an atmospheric cross-correlation analysis. We detect neutral iron (5.2σ), at K(p) = 157 (+68, -44) km/s and V(sys) = -16 (+2, -4), adding another object to the small sample of highly irradiated gas-giant planets with Fe detections in transmission. Detections so far favor particularly inflated gas giants with radii ≳1.78 R(J), which may be due to observational bias. With an equilibrium temperature of T(eq) = 2492 ± 38 K and a measured dayside brightness temperature of 3237 ± 59 K (assuming zero geometric albedo), TOI-1518b is a promising candidate for future emission spectroscopy to probe for a thermal inversion.

Samuel H. C. Cabot↗

The best-fit universe

Inflation provides very strong motivation for a flat Universe, Harrison-Zel'dovich (constant-curvature) perturbations, and cold dark matter. However, there are a number of cosmological observations that conflict with the predictions of the simplest such model: one with zero cosmological constant. They include the age of the Universe, dynamical determinations of Omega, galaxy-number counts, and the apparent abundance of large-scale structure in the Universe. While the discrepancies are not yet serious enough to rule out the simplest and most well motivated model, the current data point to a best-fit model with the following parameters: Omega(sub B) approximately equal to 0.03, Omega(sub CDM) approximately equal to 0.17, Omega(sub Lambda) approximately equal to 0.8, and H(sub 0) approximately equal to 70 km/(sec x Mpc) which improves significantly the concordance with observations. While there is no good reason to expect such a value for the cosmological constant, there is no physical principle that would rule out such.

Turner, Michael S.↗

Computational Analysis of Towed Ballute Interactions

A ballute (balloon-parachute) is an inflatable, aerodynamic drag device for application to planetary entry vehicles. Ballutes may be directly attached to a vehicle, increasing its cross-sectional area upon inflation, or towed behind the vehicle as a semi-independent device that can be quickly cut free when the requisite change in velocity is achieved. The aerothermodynamics of spherical and toroidal towed ballutes are considered in the present study. A limiting case of zero towline length (clamped system) is also considered. A toroidal system can be designed (ignoring influence of the tethers) such that all flow processed by the bow shock of the towing spacecraft passes through the hole in the toroid. For a spherical ballute, towline length is a critical parameter that affects aeroheating on the ballute being towed through the spacecraft wake. In both cases, complex and often unsteady interactions ensue in which the spacecraft and its wake resemble an aero spike situated in front of the ballute. The strength of the interactions depends upon system geometry and Reynolds number. We show how interactions may envelope the base of the towing spacecraft or impinge on the ballute surface with adverse consequences to its thermal protection system. Geometric constraints to minimize or eliminate such adverse interactions are discussed. The towed, toroidal system and the clamped, spherical system show greatest potential for a baseline design approach.

Gnoffo, Peter A.↗