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Advancing Wildfire Monitoring with TEMPO and ML tools: Hourly Smoke and Fire‑Front Mapping and Near‑Surface NO₂ Predictions

Wildfires impose substantial impacts on communities and regions downwind of wildfire smoke. We present a TEMPO‑enabled workflow that generates value‑added Level‑3 smoke‑plume masks and fire‑front maps for large wildfires, such as 2024 Park Fire, using the self‑supervised deep learning system SIT‑FUSE, along with near‑surface NO₂ predictions produced by a foundation model (Microsoft Aurora). We conclude by outlining a roadmap for expanding these capabilities to additional Western U.S. wildfire events and for delivering actionable tools to stakeholders. This open-source, reproducible workflow provides a scalable framework for cross-agency wildfire monitoring to overcome traditional limitations in smoke-cloud discrimination and air-quality forecasting by incorporating TEMPO data and beyond.

Xiaohua Pan

An analysis of wildfire prevention

A model of the production of wildfire ignitions and damages is developed and used to determine wildland activity-regulation decisions, which minimize total expected cost-plus-loss due to wildfires. In this context, the implications of various policy decisions are considered. The resulting decision rules take a form that makes it possible for existing wildfire management agencies to readily adopt them upon collection of the required data.

Heineke, J. M.

Proactive Wildfire Management: A Remote Sensing and Multimodal CNN-MLP Architecture for Ignition Risk Forecasting

As the frequency and intensity of wildfires increase, with fire seasons now starting earlier and ending later than they have over the past decades, current monitoring systems, such as lookout towers and satellites, are hindered by cloud cover, low-resolution imagery, and static data gaps that fail to track vegetation moisture levels fast enough to catch rapid pre-ignition changes. This report proposes a Machine Learning-enabled Wildfire Ignition Prediction framework that combines satellite monitoring with dynamic and high-resolution remote sensing from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) swarms. The method would use multispectral and thermal data from the Landsat program to create a baseline for vegetation health, calculating a two-band Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI2) and the moisture content of the vegetation. These inputs will later be fused with microscale UAV weather data, including thermal hotspots found through thick canopies, hyperspectral chemical signatures of pre-visual combustion, and local weather streams. The multispectral satellite, multispectral Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR), and thermal data would then be processed through a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), alongside a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) for the micro-weather telemetry. The outputs of these networks would be fused into a single feature representation and passed through a final prediction network to generate real-time ignition risk scores and hotspot alerts. Model performance would be assessed using standard classification metrics, including a Receiver Operating Characteristic - Area Under the Curve (ROC AUC) and F1 score. This system would allow first responders to identify high-risk zones and intervene before ignition occurs, improving emergency response time compared to current approaches.

machine learning

A Multi-Tier Autonomous Aerial Architecture for Wildfire Detection, Characterization, and Communication in Infrastructure-Denied Environments

Wildfire response depends on how fast an ignition can be confirmed and located, especially in remote regions where ground-based communication and monitoring may be limited. Geostationary sensors provide frequent observations but at kilometer-scale resolution, which is too coarse to resolve small fires in remote terrain. Ground camera networks require sightlines and infrastructure that back-country areas lack. To address these limitations, this work proposes a Multi-Tier Autonomous Wildfire Intelligence System that combines wide-area monitoring with targeted, high-resolution sensing. A solar-powered high-altitude long endurance (HALE) platform operating at approximately 60,000 ft provides persistent wide-area thermal and optical surveillance, running onboard edge inference to screen candidate ignitions and reduce false positives and downlink bandwidth. When a candidate ignition is detected, low-altitude uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS) can be deployed to conduct localized observations, including high-resolution imaging and atmospheric measurements such as wind and plume observation. By combining persistent detection with local sensing, the proposed architecture is designed to provide first responders with timely, high-resolution information about fire location and behavior to aid in emergency decision making.

Wildfire management, UAS, drones

The application of remotely sensed data in support of emergency rehabilitation of wildfire-damage areas

The depth, texture, and water holding capacity of the soil before the fire in the Bridge Creek area of Deschutes National Forest (1979) were determined from available aerial photography and LANDSAT MSS digital data. Three days after the fire was out, complete coverage of the burned area was acquired on 35 mm color infrared film from a near vertical or low oblique perspective. These photographs were used in assessing the condition of vegetation, and in predicting the likelihood of survival. Negatives from vertical natural photography obtained during the same flight were used to produce 3R prints from which large scale mosaics of the entire burned area were obtained. LANDSAT MSS data obtained on the day the fire was under control were used to evaluate vegetative vigor (by calculating a band 7/band 5 ratio value for each spectral class) and to determine the boundary between altered and unaltered land.

Isaacson, D. L.

Potentially efficient forest and range applications of remote sensing using earth orbital space craft, circa 1980

Sixteen remote sensing applications or groups of related applications judged to be most important of any in the forestry and range disciplines were evaluated. In one application, major land classification, large amounts of useful data are anticipated to be contributed by space sensors in 1980. In four applications moderate amounts are anticipated to be so contributed. These are timber inventory, range inventory, fire weather forecasting, and monitoring snowfields. In the following seven applications small but significant amounts of data are anticipated to be contributed by space sensors: (1) detailed land classification; (2) inventory of wildlife habitat; (3) recreation resource inventory; (4) detecting stresses on the vegetation (5) monitoring air pollution caused by wildfires and prescribed burning; (6) monitoring water cycle, (7) pollution and erosion; and (8) evaluating damage to forests and ranges.

Wilson, R. C.

ERTS-1 evaluation of natural resources management applications in the Great Basin

The relatively cloud free weather in the Great Basin has allowed the accumulation of several dates of excellent ERTS-1 imagery. Mountains, valleys, playas, stream courses, canyons, alluvial fans, and other landforms are readily delineated on ERTS-1 imagery, particularly with MSS-5. Each band is useful for identifying and studying one or more natural resource features. For example, crested wheatgrass seedings were most easily identified and measured on MSS-7. Color enhancements simulating CIR were useful for depicting meadow and phreatophytic vegetation along water bodies and stream courses. Work is underway to inventory and monitor wildfire areas by age and successional status. Inventories have been completed on crested wheatgrass seedings over the entire State of Nevada, and inventories of playa surfaces, water surfaces, phreatophytic vegetation, snow cover, meadows, and other features is continuing. Vegetation ecotones are being delineated for vegetation mapping. The pinyon/juniper-northern desert shrub ecotone has been identified with considerable success. Phenology changes can be used to describe vegetation changes for management.

Tueller, P. T.

Application of ERTS-1 imagery to the study of caribou movements and winter dispersal in relation to prevailing snowcover

The author has identified the following significant results. A multiband classification scheme was applied to ERTS-1 MSS digital tape data in a portion of the Yukon Flats area. Primary analytic objectives of mapping the extent of recent wildfire burns and mature forest were realized illustrating application to moose and caribou biology. Additionally, the analysis indicated the presence of new lakes as well as disappearance of lakes present in 1956. Because this is an important waterfowl production area, similar analyses may have significant application potential to waterfowl biology for rapid updating of habitat information. Further field confirmation of this finding is required.

Lent, P. C.

An automatic locating system for cloud-to-ground lightning

Automatic locating systems which respond to cloud to ground lightning and which discriminate against cloud discharges and background noise are described. Subsystems of the locating system, which include the direction finder and the position analyzer, are discussed. The direction finder senses the electromagnetic fields radiated by lightning on two orthogonal magnetic loop antennas and on a flat plate electric antenna. The position analyzer is a preprogrammed microcomputer system which automatically computes, maps, and records lightning locations in real time using data inputs from the direction finder. The use of the locating systems for wildfire management and fire weather forecasting is discussed.

Krider, E. P.

Applications of remote-sensing data in Alaska

Public and private agencies were introduced to the use of remotely sensed data obtained by both satellite and aircraft, and benefitted from facilities for data processing enhancement and interpretation as well as from the institute's data library. Cooperative ventures involving the performance of operational activities included assistance to the Bureau of Land Management in the suppression of wildfires; the selection of sites for power line right-of-way; the mapping of leads in sea ice; determination of portions of public lands to be allocated for small scale farming; the identification of areas for large scale farming of barley; the observation of coastal processes and sediment transport near Prudhoe Bay; the establishment of a colar infrared file of the entire state; and photomapping for geological surveys. Monitoring of the outer continental shelf environment and reindeer herds was also conducted. Institutional constraints to full utilization of satellite remote sensing in the state are explored and plans for future activites include the generation of awareness by government agencies, the training of state personnel, and improving coordination and communication with users.

Miller, J. M.

Enabling Interoperability in Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT): Integrating Observations, Models, and AI for Actionable Insights Through NASA'S Intelligent Systems Technology Program

NASA’s Intelligent Systems Technology Program (IST) is driving a paradigm shift in Earth science through the development of Earth System Digital Twins (ESDT). These integrated information systems create a dynamic "digital replica" of the Earth by harmonizing continuous, multi-source observations with high-fidelity models and state-of-the-art artificial intelligence (AI) that enable “What now?”, “What next?”, and “What if?” scenario building. These scenarios are reflected in NASA IST’s series of ESDTs, from the Coastal Zone Digital Twin that integrates complex data on the current state of the Chesapeake Bay to the Terrestrial Environmental Rapid-Replication and Assimilation Hydrometeorological (TerraHydro) AI-based ESDT that forecasts water movement across Earth’s surface, to the Agriculture Land Information System (AgLIS) which can be used to assess optimal planting dates and crop yield estimates. By bridging the gap between vast data archives and actionable insights, these projects enable a system-of-systems approach to understanding complex, interacting Earth processes. This poster will highlight recent innovations and future directions from NASA’s ESDT initiatives: Continuous Data Assimilation & Multi-Source Fusion. A core requirement of the ESDT work is the transition from static models to dynamic "living" replicas. This involves creating frameworks for the continual assimilation of near-real-time data from uncoordinated, heterogeneous sources, including satellite observations and airborne assets, and ground-based Internet of Things (IoT) sensors. These systems link design, operational status, and environmental data, ensuring the digital twin accurately reflects the current state of the physical Earth system. High-Fidelity Hybrid Modeling & Computational Acceleration to enable interactive "what-if" explorations, programs are moving beyond traditional, slow physical solvers by developing fast surrogate machine learning models and Deep Generative Models (DGMs). These hybrid approaches use neural networks to emulate complex physics, such as cloud feedback or ocean dynamics, at a fraction of the original computing cost, often leveraging advanced hardware like Graphics Processing Units (GPUs) to achieve the necessary scale. Federated Ecosystems & Interoperable Frameworks rather than building isolated tools, NASA IST is moving toward federated ESDTs and reusable analytic collaborative frameworks. This theme focuses on interoperability standards and common ontologies that allow specialized digital twins to interact and share data. This system-of-systems architecture supports multi-discipline investigations, such as analyzing how upstream watershed changes impact downstream urban flooding or how wildfire emissions affect regional air quality. By leveraging these advancements, ESDTs empower researchers and decision-makers to conduct real-time analysis and run complex hypothetical scenarios, ultimately improving our understanding of Earth’s evolving systems and informing critical real-world applications.

Earth System