Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Weakly Informed Priors”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Weakly Informed Priors for FLEX Data

On behalf of the U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has reviewed the development and use of “weakly informed prior” (WIP) probability distributions to obtain industry-wide failure probability and rate distributions for portable “FLEX” equipment, as documented in the Pressurized Water Reactor Owner’s Group (PWROG) report, FLEX Equipment Data Collection and Analysis (PWROG 18043-P) by MM Degonish. The review includes a description of the methods used by the PWROG analysts. It also includes an implementation of those methods for comparison purposes and an implementation of two constrained-noninformative (CN) distributions for further WIP comparisons. The report documents several issues that the review identified in the development of the WIP distributions. They relate to the quality and representativeness of the current portable “FLEX” component data, the choice of informed distributions for related installed components, and the lack of verification for the factors chosen to weaken the information from the installed components. Two errors occurred in the computations: the posterior distribution of the WIP was used to modify the WIP itself, resulting in a lack of independence between the WIP and the data; and an error was made in the conversion of WIP mean and variance values to beta distributions. The INL reviewers think the WIP distributions presented in the report are untenable for use in risk assessments at the present time because of these issues.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Imaging mechanism for hyperspectral scanning probe microscopy via Gaussian process modelling

We investigate the ability to reconstruct and derive spatial structure from sparsely sampled 3D piezoresponse force microcopy data, captured using the band-excitation (BE) technique, via Gaussian Process (GP) methods. Even for weakly informative priors, GP methods allow unambiguous determination of the characteristic length scales of the imaging process both in spatial and frequency domains. We further show that BE data set tends to be oversampled in the spatial domains, with ~30% of original data set sufficient for high-quality reconstruction, potentially enabling faster BE imaging. At the same time, reliable reconstruction along the frequency domain requires the resonance peak to be within the measured band. This behavior suggests the optimal strategy for the BE imaging on unknown samples. Finally, we discuss how GP can be used for automated experimentation in SPM, by combining GP regression with non-rectangular scans.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
NASA NTRS2019

A NICER view of PSR J0030+0451: Implications for the Dense Matter Equation of State

Both the mass and radius of the millisecond pulsar PSRJ0030+0451 have been inferred via pulse-profile modeling of X-ray data obtained by NASA’s Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) mission. In this Letter we study the implications of the mass–radius inference reported for this source by Riley et al. for the dense matter equation of state (EoS), in the context of prior information from nuclear physics at low densities. Using a Bayesian framework we infer central densities and EoS properties for two choices of high-density extensions: a piecewise-polytropic model and a model based on assumptions of the speed of sound in dense matter. Around nuclear saturation density these extensions are matched to an EoS uncertainty band obtained from calculations based on chiral effective field theory interactions, which provide a realistic description of atomic nuclei as well as empirical nuclear matter properties within uncertainties. We further constrain EoS expectations with input from the current highest measured pulsar mass; together, these constraints offer a narrow Bayesian prior informed by theory as well as laboratory and astrophysical measurements. The NICER mass–radius likelihood function derived by Riley et al. using pulse-profile modeling is consistent with the highest-density region of this prior. The present relatively large uncertainties on mass and radius for PSR J0030+0451 offer, however, only a weak posterior information gain over the prior. We explore the sensitivity to the inferred geometry of the heated regions that give rise to the pulsed emission, and find a small increase in posterior gain for an alternative (but less preferred) model. Lastly, we investigate the hypothetical scenario of increasing the NICER exposure time for PSRJ0030+0451.

G Raaijmakers↗
DOE OSTI2025

Incorporating Physical Priors into Weakly Supervised Anomaly Detection

We propose a new machine-learning-based anomaly detection strategy for comparing data with a background-only reference (a form of weak supervision). The sensitivity of previous strategies degrades significantly when the signal is too rare or there are many unhelpful features. Our prior-assisted weak supervision (PAWS) method incorporates information from a class of signal models to significantly enhance the search sensitivity of weakly supervised approaches. As long as the true signal is in the prespecified class, PAWS matches the sensitivity of a dedicated, fully supervised method without specifying the exact parameters ahead of time. On the benchmark LHC Olympics anomaly detection dataset, our mix of semisupervised and weakly supervised learning is able to extend the sensitivity over previous methods by a factor of 10 in cross section. Furthermore, if we add irrelevant (noise) dimensions to the inputs, classical methods degrade by another factor of 10 in cross section while PAWS remains insensitive to noise. This new approach could be applied in a number of scenarios and pushes the frontier of sensitivity between completely model-agnostic approaches and fully model-specific searches.

artificial neural networks↗
DOE OSTI2026

Structure-aware Initialization via Numerical Continuation and Informed Priors

Scientific machine learning (SciML) often operates in ill-conditioned, weakly identifiable regimes due to limited data or indirect observations. In such settings, optimization and inference are highly sensitive to the starting point, making initialization--often under-reported--a consequential degree of freedom. Random initialization is not a neutral default as it induces an implicit prior over candidate solutions and can systematically bias the result, producing large run-to-run variability. Here, we formalize this view by treating initialization as a hidden confounder in SciML and develop a unifying theory for structure-aware initialization via numerical continuation, constructing warm starts from related problem instances. Across representative tasks, including physics-informed neural networks, maximum likelihood estimation, and variational inference, warm starts have been shown to consistently reduce optimization effort and improve reliability.

Data integrity↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing DESI DR1 full-shape analyses using HOD-informed priors

We present an analysis of DESI Data Release 1 (DR1) that incorporates Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD)-informed priors into Full-Shape (FS) modeling of the power spectrum based on cosmological perturbation theory (PT). By leveraging physical insights from the galaxy-halo connection, these HOD-informed priors on nuisance parameters substantially mitigate projection effects in extended cosmological models that allow for dynamical dark energy. The resulting credible intervals now encompass the posterior maximum from the baseline analysis using gaussian priors, eliminating a significant posterior shift observed in baseline studies. In the ΛCDM framework, a combined DESI DR1 FS information and constraints from the DESI DR1 baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) — including Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN) constraints and a weak prior on the scalar spectral index — yields Ω m = 0.2994 ± 0.0090 and σ 8 = 0.836$^{+0.024}_{-0.027}$, representing improvements of approximately 4% and 23% over the baseline analysis, respectively. For the w 0 w a CDM model, our results from various data combinations are highly consistent, with all configurations converging to a region with w 0 > -1 and w a < 0. This convergence not only suggests intriguing hints of dynamical dark energy but also underscores the robustness of our HOD-informed prior approach in delivering reliable cosmological constraints.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2005

Bayesian Retrieval of Complete Posterior PDFs of Oceanic Rain Rate From Microwave Observations

This paper presents a new Bayesian algorithm for retrieving surface rain rate from Tropical Rainfall Measurements Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) over the ocean, along with validations against estimates from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR). The Bayesian approach offers a rigorous basis for optimally combining multichannel observations with prior knowledge. While other rain rate algorithms have been published that are based at least partly on Bayesian reasoning, this is believed to be the first self-contained algorithm that fully exploits Bayes Theorem to yield not just a single rain rate, but rather a continuous posterior probability distribution of rain rate. To advance our understanding of theoretical benefits of the Bayesian approach, we have conducted sensitivity analyses based on two synthetic datasets for which the true conditional and prior distribution are known. Results demonstrate that even when the prior and conditional likelihoods are specified perfectly, biased retrievals may occur at high rain rates. This bias is not the result of a defect of the Bayesian formalism but rather represents the expected outcome when the physical constraint imposed by the radiometric observations is weak, due to saturation effects. It is also suggested that the choice of the estimators and the prior information are both crucial to the retrieval. In addition, the performance of our Bayesian algorithm is found to be comparable to that of other benchmark algorithms in real-world applications, while having the additional advantage of providing a complete continuous posterior probability distribution of surface rain rate.

Chiu, J. Christine↗
DOE OSTI2025

DESI 2024 V: Full-Shape galaxy clustering from galaxies and quasars

We present the measurements and cosmological implications of the galaxy two-point clustering using over 4.7 million unique galaxy and quasar redshifts in the range 0.1 < z < 2.1 divided into six redshift bins over a ∼ 7,500 square degree footprint, from the first year of observations with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI Data Release 1). By fitting the full power spectrum, we extend previous DESI DR1 baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements to include redshift-space distortions and signals from the matter-radiation equality scale. For the first time, this Full-Shape analysis is blinded at the catalogue-level to avoid confirmation bias and the systematic errors are accounted for at the two-point clustering level, which automatically propagates them into any cosmological parameter. When analyzing the data in terms of compressed model-agnostic variables, we obtain a combined precision of 4.7% on the amplitude of the redshift space distortion (RSD) signal reaching a similar precision with just one year of DESI data than with twenty years of observation from the previous generation survey. We also analyze the data to directly constrain the cosmological parameters within the ΛCDM model using perturbation theory and combine this information with the reconstructed DESI DR1 galaxy BAO. Using a Big Bang Nucleosynthesis Gaussian prior on the baryon density parameter, ω b , and a weak Gaussian prior on the spectral index, n s , we constrain the matter density is Ω m = 0.296±0.010 and the Hubble constant H 0 = (68.63 ± 0.79)[km s -1 Mpc -1 ]. Additionally, we measure the amplitude of clustering σ 8 = 0.841±0.034. The DESI DR1 galaxy clustering results are in agreement with the ΛCDM model based on general relativity with parameters consistent with those from Planck. The cosmological interpretation of these results in combination with DESI DR1 Ly-α forest data and external datasets are presented in the companion paper [1].

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cosmology from cross-correlation of ACT-DR4 CMB lensing and DES-Y3 cosmic shear

Cross-correlation between weak lensing of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and weak lensing of galaxies offers a way to place robust constraints on cosmological and astrophysical parameters with reduced sensitivity to certain systematic effects affecting individual surveys. We measure the angular cross-power spectrum between the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) DR4 CMB lensing and the galaxy weak lensing measured by the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Y3 data. Our baseline analysis uses the CMB convergence map derived from ACT-DR4 and Planck data, where most of the contamination due to the thermal Sunyaev Zel’dovich effect is removed, thus avoiding important systematics in the cross-correlation. In our modelling, we consider the nuisance parameters of the photometric uncertainty, multiplicative shear bias and intrinsic alignment of galaxies. The resulting cross-power spectrum has a signal-to-noise ratio = 7.1 and passes a set of null tests. We use it to infer the amplitude of the fluctuations in the matter distribution (S_8 ≡ σ_8(Ω_m/0.3)^0.5 = 0.782 ± 0.059) with informative but well-motivated priors on the nuisance parameters. We also investigate the validity of these priors by significantly relaxing them and checking the consistency of the resulting posteriors, finding them consistent, albeit only with relatively weak constraints. This cross-correlation measurement will improve significantly with the new ACT-DR6 lensing map and form a key component of the joint 6×2pt analysis between DES and ACT.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

BEYONDPLANCK XIII. Intensity foreground sampling, degeneracies, and priors

We present the intensity foreground algorithms and model employed within the BEYONDPLANCK analysis framework. The BEYONDPLANCK analysis is aimed at integrating component separation and instrumental parameter sampling within a global framework, leading to complete end-to-end error propagation in the Planck Low Frequency Instrument (LFI) data analysis. Given the scope of the BEYONDPLANCK analysis, a limited set of data is included in the component separation process, leading to foreground parameter degeneracies. In order to properly constrain the Galactic foreground parameters, we improve upon the previous Commander component separation implementation by adding a suite of algorithmic techniques. These algorithms are designed to improve the stability and computational efficiency for weakly constrained posterior distributions. These are: (1) joint foreground spectral parameter and amplitude sampling, building on ideas from MIRAMARE; (2) component-based monopole determination; (3) joint spectral parameter and monopole sampling; and (4) application of informative spatial priors for component amplitude maps. We find that the only spectral parameter with a significant signal-to-noise ratio using the current BEYONDPLANCK data set is the peak frequency of the anomalous microwave emission component, for which we find $ν$ p = 25.3 ± 0.5 GHz; all others must be constrained through external priors. Future works will be aimed at integrating many more data sets into this analysis, both map and time-ordered based, thereby gradually eliminating the currently observed degeneracies in a controlled manner with respect to both instrumental systematic effects and astrophysical degeneracies. When this happens, the simple LFI-oriented data model employed in the current work will need to be generalized to account for both a richer astrophysical model and additional instrumental effects. This work will be organized within the Open Science-based COSMOGLOBE community effort.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Localization and coherent imaging of hidden moving objects using laser speckle

Imaging and sensing of moving objects through opaque scattering media is a challenging but important problem in a variety of applications, including environmental sensing, biomedical imaging, and material inspection. We have previously demonstrated a technique to coherently image a moving object through thick, heavily scattering random media using correlations of speckle images as a function of the object’s spatial translation. Here, we demonstrate that this technique can be combined with localization to achieve imaging without prior knowledge of the object’s motion, greatly extending the application domain. This method is effective beyond the thin or weakly scattering regime and, rather than motion being deleterious, exploits the information available when the hidden object is moving, as could be the case in a cluttered terrestrial environment or through substantial levels of biological tissue scatter.

Hastings, Ryan L. (ORCID:0009000095977807)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Tomography of the positive-pitch fast-ion velocity distribution in DIII-D plasmas with Alfvén eigenmodes and neoclassical tearing modes

Understanding the effect of Alfvén eigenmodes (AEs) and neoclassical tearing modes (NTMs) on fast ions is highly important for fusion reactors due to potentially strong resonant interactions between the fast ions and the modes. Here, we use the four-view fast-ion D-alpha (FIDA) diagnostic installed in the DIII-D tokamak to reconstruct the fast-ion velocity distribution at two radial positions during two sequential discharges with strong and weak mode activity, respectively. The velocity-space coverage of the diagnostics, however, only allows reliable reconstructions of fast ions with positive pitches. Therefore, we suggest new tomographic inversion methods relying on prior information outside the well-diagnosed region. We find that within the population of fast ions with positive pitches, ions, at all energies, are transported away from the measurement volumes. Comparisons between the reconstructions and kick model simulations, where the mode activity is considered, reveal that low-frequency modes such as the NTMs and low-frequency AEs contribute significantly to the positive-pitch fast-ion transport in the central measurement volume, whereas TAEs and EAEs become important farther out and are responsible for decreased fast-ion confinement.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

DESI 2024 VII: cosmological constraints from the full-shape modeling of clustering measurements

We present cosmological results from the measurement of clustering of galaxy, quasar and Lyman-α forest tracers from the first year of observations with the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI Data Release 1). We adopt the full-shape (FS) modeling of the power spectrum, including the effects of redshift-space distortions, in an analysis which has been thoroughly validated in a series of supporting papers as summarised in [1]. We combine the full-shape information with DESI's DR1 constraints from the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) of these tracers. In the flat ΛCDM cosmological model, DESI (FS+BAO), combined with a baryon density prior from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis and a weak prior on the scalar spectral index, determines matter density to Ω m = 0.2962 ± 0.0095, and the amplitude of mass fluctuations to σ 8 = 0.842 ± 0.034. The addition of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) data tightens these constraints to Ω m = 0.3056 ± 0.0049 and σ 8 = 0.8121 ± 0.0053, while further addition of the joint clustering and lensing analysis from the Dark Energy Survey Year-3 (DESY3) data further improves these measurements, and leads to a 0.4% determination of the Hubble constant, H 0 = (68.40 ± 0.27) km s -1 Mpc -1 . In models with a time-varying dark energy equation of state parametrised by w 0 and w a , combinations of DESI (FS+BAO) with CMB and type Ia supernovae continue to show the preference, previously found in the DESI DR1 BAO analysis, for w 0 > -1 and w a < 0 with similar levels of significance. DESI data, in combination with the CMB, improve the upper limits on the sum of the neutrino masses relative to the case when only the DR1 BAO was available, giving ∑m ν < 0.071 eV at 95% confidence. We finally constrain deviations from general relativity represented by two modified gravity parameters. DESI (FS+BAO) data alone measure the parameter that controls the clustering of massive particles, μ 0 = 0.11 +0.45 -0.54 , in agreement with the zero value predicted by general relativity. The combination of DESI with the CMB and the clustering and lensing analysis from DESY3 constrains both modified-gravity parameters, giving μ 0 = 0.04 ± 0.22 and Σ 0 = 0.044 ± 0.047, again in agreement with general relativity.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Interpreting internal consistency of DES measurements

ABSTRACT Bayesian evidence ratios are widely used to quantify the statistical consistency between different experiments. However, since the evidence ratio is prior dependent, the precise translation between its value and the degree of concordance/discordance requires additional information. The most commonly adopted metric, the Jeffreys scale, can falsely suggest agreement between data sets when priors are chosen to be sufficiently wide. This work examines evidence ratios in a DES-Y1 simulated analysis, focusing on the internal consistency between weak lensing and galaxy clustering. We study two scenarios using simulated data in controlled experiments. First, we calibrate the expected evidence ratio distribution given noise realizations around the best-fitting DES-Y1 ΛCDM cosmology. Secondly, we show the behaviour of evidence ratios for noiseless fiducial data vectors simulated using a modified gravity model, which generates internal tension in the LCDM analysis. We find that the evidence ratio of noise realizations generated at all confidence levels was biased towards agreement and show, with a modified gravity model, that the choice of prior could conceal the discrepancies between weak lensing and galaxy clustering induced by prior effects in unlike cosmological models, concluding that the evidence ratio in a DES-Y1 study is, indeed, biased towards agreement. Boundary effects can also influence conclusions about the inconsistency induced by modified gravity, even in a noiseless data vector simulation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sequential Image Recovery Using Joint Hierarchical Bayesian Learning

Abstract Recovering temporal image sequences (videos) based on indirect, noisy, or incomplete data is an essential yet challenging task. We specifically consider the case where each data set is missing vital information, which prevents the accurate recovery of the individual images. Although some recent (variational) methods have demonstrated high-resolution image recovery based on jointly recovering sequential images, there remain robustness issues due to parameter tuning and restrictions on the type of sequential images. Here, we present a method based on hierarchical Bayesian learning for the joint recovery of sequential images that incorporates prior intra- and inter-image information. Our method restores the missing information in each image by “borrowing” it from the other images. More precisely, we couple sequential images by penalizing their pixel-wise difference. The corresponding penalty terms (one for each pixel and pair of subsequent images) are treated as weakly-informative random variables that favor small pixel-wise differences but allow occasional outliers. As a result, all of the individual reconstructions yield improved accuracy. Our method can be used for various data acquisitions and allows for uncertainty quantification. Some preliminary results indicate its potential use for sequential deblurring and magnetic resonance imaging.

Xiao, Yao↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cluster cosmology with anisotropic boosts: validation of a novel forward modelling analysis and application on SDSS redMaPPer clusters

We present a novel analysis for cluster cosmology that fully forward models the abundances, weak lensing, and the clustering of galaxy clusters. Our analysis notably includes an empirical model for the anisotropic boosts impacting the lensing and clustering signals of optical clusters. These boosts arise from a preferential selection of clusters surrounded by anisotropic large-scale structure, a consequence of the limited discrimination between line-of-sight interlopers and true cluster members offered by photometric surveys. We validate our analysis via a blind cosmology challenge on mocks, and find that we can obtain tight and unbiased cosmological constraints without informative priors or external calibrations on any of our model parameters. We then apply our analysis on the SDSS redMaPPer clusters, and find results favoring low Ωm and high σ8, combining to yield the lensing strength constraint $S_8 = 0.715_{-0.021}^{+0.024}$. We investigate potential drivers behind these results through a series of post-unblinding tests, noting that our results are consistent with existing cluster cosmology constraints but clearly inconsistent with other CMB/LSS based cosmology results. From these tests, we find hints that a suppression in the cluster lensing signal may be driving our results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1999

Studies of Radiation and Microphysics in Cirrus and Marine Stratocumulus Clouds

Two tasks were completed during this period. In the first, we examined the polarization of millimeter-wavelength radar beams scattered by ice crystals. Because of their non-spherical shape and size, ice crystals depolarize the incident polarized radar beam. In principle, this depolarization can be used to identify ice from liquid water, as well as provide some information on size. However, the amount of de-polarization is small, producing only a weak signal at the receiver. Our task was to determine the magnitude of such a signal and decide if our radar would be capable of measuring it under typical cirrus conditions. The theoretical study was carried out by Henrietta Lemke, a visiting graduate student from Germany. She had prior experience using a discrete dipole code to compute scattering depolarization. Dr. Kultegin Aydin of the Penn State Electrical Engineering Department, who is also expert in this area, consulted with us on this project at no cost to the project. Our conclusion was that the depolarization signal is too weak to be usefully measured by our system. Therefore we proceeded no further in this study. The second task involved the study of the effect of stratus microphysics on surface cloud forcing. Manajit Sengupta, a graduate student, and the project PI jointly carried out this task. The study used data culled from over a year of continuous radar and radiometer observations at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site in Oklahoma. The study compared solar radiation calculations made using constant microphysics with calculations made using a retrieved mean particle size. The results showed that on average the constant microphysics produced the correct forcing when compared with the observed forcing. We conclude, therefore, that there is little impetus on radiation grounds alone to include explicit microphysics in climate models. The question of pollutant particle emission impacts on microphysics remains to be resolved. A manuscript is in preparation and will be submitted this year.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2000

Nozomi Cis-Lunar Phase Orbit Determination

Japan's Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS) launched Nozomi, its first mission to the planet Mars using the newly developed M-V launch vehicle on July 3, 1998. Scientific objectives of the mission are to study the structure and dynamics of the Martian upper atmosphere and its interaction with the solar wind. Nozomi is a cooperative mission between ISAS and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). The NASA contribution includes navigation and tracking services provided by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). The spacecraft also serves as an engineering demonstration of basic technology for planetary exploration. One of the new technologies was a unique trajectory, developed by ISAS, which used solar gravitational perturbations at the weak stability boundary as an aid to achieve an Earth-Mars transfer orbit. This trajectory saves approximately 120 m/s of Delta V compared to direct hyperbolic insertion and is considered an enabling technology for the mission. Nozomi was the first spacecraft to employ this trajectory and provided on-orbit validation of the technique. The trajectory was achieved by initially placing the spacecraft in a highly elliptical cis-lunar phasing orbit. Six maneuvers were performed during this period to correct injection errors and target an outbound lunar swingby in September 1998. The gravity assist from the lunar swingby raised apogee to the vicinity of the weak stability boundary. After three more targeting maneuvers, Nozomi performed an inbound lunar swingby followed immediately by a powered Earth swingby in late December 1998. A 420 m/s Trans Mars Insertion (TMI) burn at the final Earth periapsis was intended to place the spacecraft on a heliocentric trajectory leading to Mars orbit insertion in October 1999. Orbit determination for Nozomi is performed in parallel by both ISAS and the Multi-Mission Navigation (MMNAV) group at JPL. This was an advantage for the mission because each group would generate solutions based on data collected from their respective tracking networks. Spacecraft events, such as sequence uplinks and maneuvers, were generally scheduled during passes at the Usuda tracking station in Japan. As a result, maneuver design and reconstruction was derived from MMNAV solutions based on JPL tracking data obtained immediately prior to or following maneuvers. Data was also exchanged between ISAS and MMNAV so orbit determination could be performed on joint data sets in support of critical targeting late in the cis-lunar phase. In this paper, information regarding the MMNAV orbit determination effort for the first six months of the mission is presented. The spacecraft trajectory is characterized first, followed by a discussion of the orbit determination estimation procedure and models. Results from selected orbit solutions are presented and compared against reconstructed trajectories. One area of emphasis in this paper is orbit determination in the vicinity of the weak stability boundary. Precise navigation was necessary to target the second lunar swingby and the powered Earth swingby. Delivery accuracy of 150 m was required for these critical encounters, but a number of factors contributed to the general degradation of orbit determination accuracy. This included the fact that the spacecraft was at apogee, at a range of 1.7 million km and moving at less than I km/sec perpendicular to the line of sight. Nozomi was also close to zero degrees declination where there are known limitations on orbit determination performance. Finally, S-band tracking data was acquired through the Nozomi backup low gain antenna. This antenna is offset from the axis of this spin stabilized spacecraft and superimposed large signatures in the Doppler and range data. These difficulties were overcome by combining long data arcs, spanning several maneuvers, with a high fidelity solar pressure model. The model included a physically accurate representation of the spacecraft structure and a high time resolution orientation model. Observation modeling included the removal of the spin induced Doppler bias, spin signature and per pass correction of range calibration errors applied for data leading up to critical events. As a result, all orbit determination goals were met. A second area of emphasis in this paper is the JPL tracking and orbit determination effort in support of the TMI maneuver. TMI occurred out of contact with ground stations and the JPL Goldstone tracking complex had the first pass following the bum. As a result, MMNAV had the responsibility to make a rapid assessment of the maneuver performance. MMNAV made the determination that a 100 m/s under bum had occurred and promptly informed ISAS via voice lines. ISAS immediately began preparations for a correction maneuver (TMIc), which had to be performed during the next Usuda pass. The near real time assessment by MMNAV provided accurate antenna frequency and pointing updates for the spacecraft acquisition at Usuda and the close coordination between the two agencies enabled the design and successful execution of the TMc maneuver. Propellant consumption during the correction burn dictated that the mission be redesigned. ISAS developed a new plan which adds 3 full solar orbits, two Earth swingbys and one lunar swingby with arrival at Mars in January 2004. The final Mars orbit will still enable the mission to achieve all of its science objectives.

Ryne, Mark↗