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Córdoba Wildland Fires: Assessing Fire Risk Factors in Córdoba, Argentina using Earth Observations

In recent years, Córdoba, Argentina has experienced intensified wildfire activity, with fires in 2020 alone scorching over 300,000 hectares within the province. Potential causes for the increased burn area include climate change, the expanding wildland-urban interface (WUI), and inadequate fire management practices. Previous studies have produced fire frequency maps for the region, but gaps remain in understanding the environmental parameters influencing fire behavior and growth. We partnered with the Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA) to address these gaps by utilizing NASA Earth observing data to analyze key wildfire risk factors. Using a combination of data inputs from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for GPM (IMERG), and Aqua/Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), we created a ten-year baseline using environmental variables to determine anomalies that influenced the fires of 2020. Baseline data were used to calculate the statistical significance of the environmental factors as precursors to wildfires. We found that the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and precipitation were the strongest indicators for the September 2020 wildfires. Using the environmental risk factors, we created a wildfire risk map for the province of Córdoba, which can be used to enhance our partner’s fire management strategies and decision-making processes.

wildland fires↗

Creating Gridded Fire Probability Maps using NASA Data

Fire is a nationally and globally significant process that strongly affects human–dominated and wild landscapes. Even though fire can be devastating, wildland fire is a natural and integral force on our landscapes, providing value by decreasing fuels at the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) to promote safe communities. However, uncontained wildfires can devastate communities, threaten our health, and result in substantial economic losses. There has been greater than a $50B increase in wildfire insurance claims from 2017-2021, which has been exacerbated by climate change. Our partners at Kettle reinsurance are focused on building a smarter reinsurance model for protecting today’s globalized world from the catastrophic effects of climate change. Our objective is to develop the world's first grid-based wildfire probability product using multiple sources of satellite data to determine whether a ‘conflagration' (fire larger than 999+ acres) has ‘breached’ a grid cell. This will substantially decrease the time it takes for homeowners to receive payouts, from over a year to a couple months. Working with our partners at Kettle reinsurance, we use multiple satellites and ancillary data to weigh the likelihood of fire, based on a number of sources that verify a fire burning in a grid cell and the level of confidence in the data source. For example, Sentinel-2 vegetation-change indices have a higher level of confidence than VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) active-fire detection data; and VIIRS active-fire detection data have a higher-level of confidence than MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) active-fire detection data. The first iteration has been developed for responding to wildfires in California, with the possibility to expand nationwide and globally.

Emily Gargulinski↗

Creating IR-verified Gridded Fire Burn Maps using Public NASA and Satellite Data

Even though fire can be devastating, wildland fire is a natural and integral force on our landscapes, providing value by decreasing fuels at the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI) to promote safe communities. However, uncontained wildfires can devastate communities, threaten our health, and result in substantial economic losses. There has been greater than a $50B increase in wildfire insurance claims from 2017-2021, which has been exacerbated by climate change. Our partners at Kettle reinsurance are focused on building a smarter reinsurance model for protecting today’s globalized world from the catastrophic effects of climate change. Our objective is to develop a high-confidence grid-based wildfire burn product using multiple sources of satellite data to determine whether a ‘conflagration' (fire larger than 999+ acres) has ‘breached’ a grid cell. This product will substantially decrease the time it takes for homeowners to receive payouts, from over a year to a couple months. Working with our partners at Kettle reinsurance, we use VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) 375 m fire detections and Sentinel-2 10 m satellite imagery to create a 20-m gridded fire burn product. Our process is based on the level of confidence in the data source and takes into account vegetation change throughout the life of the fire. For example, Sentinel-2 vegetation-change indices have a higher level of confidence when congruent with VIIRS active-fire detection data, rather than VIIRS detections alone. We have also verified our fire burn product against MODIS/ASTER Airborne Simulator (MASTER) Infrared (IR) data from the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments Experiment - Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) 2019 campaign, with 88% overall agreement. The first iteration has been developed for responding to wildfires in California, with the possibility to expand nationwide and globally.

Emily Gargulinski↗

A New CO2 Transmittance Parameterization and Its Impact on the GLA GCM

The Wu-Kaplan radiation parameterization (Krishnamurthy, 1982) used in the GLA Global Circulation Model (GCM) was improved by replacing its fixed tables of CO2 transmittance in the 15 micron band with models developed by regression on line-by-line transmittances. The transmittances between layers are modeled as products of effective sublayer transmittances. The GLA GCM was integrated for 20 days starting at OZ, January 21, 1979, using the transmittance model. In the control run the fixed table of 15 micron CO2 transmittances is used. The effect of the change of initial cooling rate is illustrated by a map of the difference of 50 mb temperature after 6 hours. The cooling is reduced over high topography, where the fixed table underestimates the transmittance, and is reduced slightly throughout the tropics and the north polar area where the stratosphere is relatively cold. Over elevated topography the surface cooling increases, also as expected. The stratospheric temperature increases over a degree in the arctic and smaller amounts over Antarctica and elsewhere. Tropospheric equilibrium temperature response is obscured by time dependent differences in synoptic disturbances.

Wobus, R.↗