DEVELOPING PREDICTIVE TOOLS TO LIMIT THE IMPACT OF WILDFIRES AND URBAN FIRES: A STUDY OF COMBUSTION AND EMISSIONS USING SEMI-DETAILED KINETIC MODELS
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Wildfires are increasing in frequency and intensity as drier and warmer climates increase plant detrital fuel loads. At the same time, increases in urbanization position 9% of fire-prone land within the United States at the wildland–urban interface. While rarely studied, the compounded effects of urbanization and wildfires may have unknown synergistically negative effects on ecosystems. Previous studies at the wildland–urban interface often focus on aboveground plant communities, but belowground ecosystems may also be affected by this double disturbance. In particular, it is unclear how much fire and urbanization independently or interactively affect nutritional symbioses such as those between arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi and the majority of terrestrial plants. In November 2016, extreme drought conditions and long-term fire suppression combined to create a wildfire within the Great Smoky Mountains National Park and the neighboring exurban city of Gatlinburg, TN. To understand how the double disturbance of urbanization and fire affected AM fungal communities, we collected fine roots from the 5 dominant understory species in September 2018 at each of 18 sites spanning 3 burn severities in both exurban and natural sites. Despite large variation in burn severity, plant species identity had the largest influence on AM fungi. AM fungal colonization, richness, and composition all varied most among plant species. Fire and urbanization did influence some AM fungal metrics; colonization was lower in burned sites and composition was more variable among exurban locations. There were no interactions among burn severity and urbanization on AM fungi. Our results point to the large influence of plant species identity structuring this obligate nutritional symbiosis regardless of disturbance regime. Therefore, the majority of AM fungal taxa may be buffered from fire-induced ecosystem changes if plant community composition largely remains intact, plant species life history traits allow for AM fungal persistence after fire disturbance, and/or nearby undisturbed habitat can act as an inoculum source for recolonization following fires. Thus, it is critical to maintain natural, undisturbed habitats interspersed within the wildland–urban interface.
Airmass type characterization is key in understanding the relative contribution of various emission sources to atmospheric composition and air quality and can be useful in bottom-up model validation and emission inventories. However, classification of pollution plumes from space is often not trivial. Sub-orbital campaigns, such as SEAC4RS (Studies of Emissions, Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys) give us a unique opportunity to study atmospheric composition in detail, by using a vast suite of in-situ instruments for the detection of trace gases and aerosols. These measurements allow identification of spatial and temporal atmospheric composition changes due to various pollution plumes resulting from urban, biogenic and smoke emissions. Nevertheless, to transfer the knowledge gathered from such campaigns into a global spatial and temporal context, there is a need to develop workflow that can be applicable to measurements from space. In this work we rely on sub-orbital in-situ and total column remote sensing measurements of various pollution plumes taken aboard the NASA DC-8 during 2013 SEAC4RS campaign, linking them through a neural-network (NN) algorithm to allow inference of pollution plume types by input of columnar aerosol and trace-gas measurements. In particular, we use the 4STAR (Spectrometer for Sky-Scanning, Sun-Tracking Atmospheric Research) airborne measurements of wavelength dependent aerosol optical depth (AOD), particle size proxies, O3, NO2 and water vapor to classify different pollution plumes. Our method relies on assigning a-priori ground-truth labeling to the various plumes, which include urban pollution, different fire types (i.e. forest and agriculture) and fire stage (i.e. fresh and aged) using cluster analysis of aerosol and trace-gases in-situ and auxiliary (e.g. trajectory) data and the training of a NN scheme to fit the best prediction parameters using 4STAR measurements as input. We explore our misclassification rates as related to our ground-truth labels, and with multi-layered pollution plume cases. The next step in our analysis is to optimize parameter selection for a scheme that can be applied to space-borne aerosol and trace-gas observation platforms such as OMI, and future geostationary satellites such as TEMPO and GEO-CAPE.
In their reply (Porch et al., 1987) to our comments (Turco et al., 1987) on their smoke-scavenging-by-dust paper, Porch et al. attempt to justify a number of parameter assumptions in their original article, again revealing the extreme nature of those assumptions, particularly in the situation where all are taken simultaneously. In critiquing Porch et al.'s calculations, have not applied "opinion", but rather physical reality and common sense expressed through basic experimental results and logical physical bounds. A few examples of the unrealistic conditions required by the Porch et al. scavenging scheme, as described in their paper and comments, should suffice here. ) Porch et al. have fabricated a "fetch" region for dust particles in large fire plumes that logically must extend over an area up to 50 times greater than the fire area itself. Alternatively, they have invoked significant "necking down' of the fire plume, so that its cross-sectional area is at most a few percent of the fire area. Such severe constriction is seen only in very small fires with strong, organized vorticity, and then only over a limited plume rise region. No "fetch" has ever been noted in any large-scale fires we have observed, or for which accounts are available. Indeed, as we deduced in our original comments, complete dust scavenging even within the fire zone would probably occur less than 10% of the time for large urban fires.
The impact of a large forest fire smoke plume on atmospheric processes is studied through a numerical model of meteorology, aerosols, and radiative transfer. The simulated smoke optical depths at 0.63-micron wavelength are in agreement with analyses of satellite data and show values as high as 1.8. The smoke has an albedo of 35 percent, or more than double the clear-sky value, and cools the surface by as much as 5 K. An imaginary refractive index, n sub im, of 0.01 yields results which closely match the observed cooling, single scattering albedo, and the Angstrom wavelength exponent. An n exp im of 0.1, typical of smoke from urban fires, produces 9 K cooling. Coagulation causes the geometric mean radius by number to increase from the initial value of 0.08 micron to a final value of 0.15 micron, while the specific extinction and absorption increase by 40 and 25 percent, respectively.
Urbanization and fires perturb the quantities and composition of fine organic aerosol in the central Amazon, with ramifications for radiative forcing and public health. These disturbances include not only direct emissions of particulates and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) precursors, but also changes in the pathways through which biogenic precursors form SOA. The composition of ambient organic aerosol is complex and incompletely characterized, encompassing millions of potential structures relatively few of which have been synthesized and characterized. Through analysis of submicron aerosol samples from the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon2014/5) field campaign by two-dimensional gas chromatography coupled with machine learning, ~1300 unique compounds were traced and characterized over two seasons. Fires and urban emissions produced chemically and interseasonally distinct impacts on product signatures, with only ~50% of compounds observed in both seasons. Seasonally unique populations point to the importance of aqueous processing in Amazonian aerosol ageing, but further mechanistic insights are impeded by limited product identity knowledge. Further, less than 10% of compounds were identifiable at an isomer-specific level. Overall, the findings (i) provide compositional characterization of anthropogenic influence on submicron organic aerosol in the Amazon, (ii) identify key season-to-season differences in chemical signatures, and (iii) highlight high-priority knowledge gaps in current speciated knowledge.
Nimbus-5 observations indicate that over the oceans the total precipitable water in a column of atmosphere can be estimated to within + or - 10%, the liquid water content of clouds can be estimated to within + or - 25%, areas of precipitation can be delineated, and broad estimates of the precipitation rate obtained. ERTS-1 observations permit the measurement of snow covered area to within a few percent of drainage basin area and snowline altitudes can be estimated to within 60 meters. Surface water areas as small as 1 hectare can be inventoried over large regions such as playa lakes region of West Texas and Eastern New Mexico. In addition, changes in land use on water-sheds occurring as a result of forest fires, urban development, clear cutting, or strip mining can be rapidly obtained.
Instantaneous net radiation flux at the top of the atmosphere is one of the primary drivers of climate and global change. Since the dawn of the satellite era, great efforts and expense have gone into measuring this flux from single satellites and even (for a several-year period) from a constellation of three satellites called ERBE. However, the reflected solar flux is an angular and spectral integral over the so-called "BRDF" or Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function, which is the angular distribution of reflected solar radiation for each solar zenith angle and each wavelength. Previous radiation flux satellites could not measure instantaneous BRDF, so scientists have had to fall back on models or composites. Because their range of observed solar zenith angles was very limited due to sunsynchronous orbits, the resultant flux maps are too inaccurate to see the dynamics of radiation flux or to reliably correlate it with specific phenomena (hurricanes, biomass fires, urban pollution, dust outbreaks, etc.). Accuracy only becomes acceptable after monthly averaging, but this washes out almost all cause-and-effect information, further exacerbated by the lack of spectral resolution. Leonardo-BRDF is a satellite system designed to measure the instantaneous spectral BRDF using a formation of highly coordinated satellites, all pointing at the same Earth targets at the same time. It will allow scientists for the first time to assess the radiative forcing of climate due to specific phenomena, which is bound to be important in the ongoing debate about global warming and what is causing it. The formation is composed of two satellite types having, as instrument payloads, single highly-integrated miniature imaging spectrometers or radiometers. Two nearby "keystone" satellites anchor the formation and fly in static orbits. They employ wide field of view imaging spectrometers that are extremely light and compact. The keystone satellites are identical and can operate in alongtrack or cross-track mode, or anything in between, at ground command. This provides inherent system redundancy and cross-calibration capability. Several "wing-man" satellites in non-static orbits fly in formation up to 1000 km out from the keystone satellites to provide additional along- and cross-track angular sampling. They view the target(s) observed by the keystone satellites from different zenith and azimuth angles and are maneuverable within a limited range of zenith angle using thrusters, and within a large range of azimuth angle using clever orbit design. The wing-man satellites carry single miniature imaging radiometers with just a few wavelength bands in order to be lighter and more agile.
Microgravity combustion phenomena have been an active area of research for the past 3 decades however, there have been very few experiments directly studying spacecraft fire safety under low-gravity conditions. Furthermore, none of these experiments have studied sample and environment sizes typical of those expected in a spacecraft fire. All previous experiments have been limited to samples of the order of 10 cm in length and width or smaller. Terrestrial fire safety standards for all other habitable volumes on earth, e.g. mines, buildings, airplanes, ships, etc., are based upon testing conducted with full-scale fires. Given the large differences between fire behavior in normal and reduced gravity, this lack of an experimental data base at relevant length scales forces spacecraft designers to base their designs using 1-g understanding. To address this question a large scale spacecraft fire experiment has been proposed by an international team of investigators. This poster presents the objectives, status and concept of this collaborative international project to examine spacecraft material flammability at realistic scales. The concept behind this project is to utilize an unmanned spacecraft such as Orbital Cygnus vehicle after it has completed its delivery of cargo to the ISS and it has begun its return journey to earth. This experiment will consist of a flame spread test involving a meter scale sample ignited in the pressurized volume of the spacecraft and allowed to burn to completion while measurements are made. A computer modeling effort will complement the experimental effort. Although the experiment will need to meet rigorous safety requirements to ensure the carrier vehicle does not sustain damage, the absence of a crew removes the need for strict containment of combustion products. This will facilitate the examination of fire behavior on a scale that is relevant to spacecraft fire safety and will provide unique data for fire model validation. This will be the first opportunity to examine microgravity flame behavior at scales approximating a spacecraft fire.
Megafires are increasing in the Western US due to sustained drought and prolonged fire exclusion. LANL uniquely positioned to lead in both modeling (fine scales, coupled fire-atmosphere, 3D fuels) and observations (CAFÉ).
Ensemble-based approaches to prescribed fire planning cannot be supported by computational fluid dynamics based models like FIRETEC and the Wildland-Urban Interface Fire Dynamics Simulator (WFDS) because they are too computationally expensive and cannot leverage large eddy simulation approaches like CAWFE and WRF-SFIRE because they have too coarse of resolution. QUIC-Fire was developed to fill this gap but it cannot currently address complex terrain, that is typical for instance in the Western United States. This dissertation describes a variety of improvements made to QUIC-Fire and its various incorporated algorithms in an effort to make it a viable tool in simulating wildland and prescribed fires on terrain. The modifications made to QUIC-Fire are described in three chapters. The first chapter describes the extension of the diagnostic wind model QUIC-URB, the wind engine of QUIC-Fire, to a terrain-following coordinate system. The terraininfluenced winds it generates are analyzed and compared. In particular, this chapter presents the mathematical derivation of the wind solver leading to a linear system of equations that are solved through the successive over-relaxation method. The model is validated against a standard test used in previous works (the Askervein Hill) and against a new dataset from measurements in the Socorro Mountains, New Mexico. The terrain-following implementation captures the correct phenomenology for the isolated Askervein Hill, with a wind speed up at the top of the hill. The model agrees well with measurements on the upwind side of the peak, but overestimates speed-up on the downwind side of the hill. This is due to the inability of the model to generate flow separation and wake-eddy dynamics. On a common laptop, the divergence-free wind field is obtained in 6 s, making the solver appealing for coupled fire-atmosphere simulations. The Socorro Mountain is highly complex, with many cliff faces, peaks, and valleys. Although the model captures the magnitude and direction of inlet and outlet areas of the domain, it performs rather poorly in the valley region and in the regions near the steep cliffs. Hence, the model shows good agreement with data in areas of open sloped terrain but lacks in areas where flow separation and thermally driven effects may be present (neither effect is addressed in this work). In the second chapter the implementation of the terrain-following version of QUIC-URB into QUIC-Fire, and the necessary changes needed to include terrain are described. No changes to the underlying fire spread algorithm are made other than what is required to correctly account for the inclusion of terrain. Previously published FIRETEC results that use five different topographies that share the same centerline profile are compared to simulation results from the modified QUIC-Fire that use the same topographies and fuels. QUIC-Fire results show overall similar behaviors in terms of how the topographies affect fire shapes and trends in spread rates. Due to the terrain-following version of QUIC-URB being unable to generate flow separations at the crest of hills, fire spread rates in these regions across all topographies are over-predicted when compared to FIRETEC. Lateral fire growth shows similar trends with FIRETEC between topographies but does not capture the increase in spread due to a diagonal interface between grassland and forested fuel region of the domain. These results suggest that there are three algorithms within QUIC-Fire that could use improvement: how flame tilt angle is accounted for, the incorporation of non-local drag effects, and the inclusion of the wake-eddy parameterizations that are used in QUIC-URB. Lastly, the third chapter describes a modification to the initial guess used for the calculation of the QUIC-URB mass-conserved wind solution during fire simulations. The modification is aimed at improving fire-fire interactions in QUIC-Fire simulations. The modification consists of using the solution from the previous timestep as the starting point for the calculation of the solution for the next timestep. Fire-fire interactions is greatly improved by the change but a new source of error is introduced. Due to how plumes are modelled in QUIC-Fire the new solution contains errors where gaps in the plume structure are present. However, these errors are mostly limited to the upper atmosphere, where they do not affect fire behavior at the surface, and their magnitude isn’t significant enough to discount the amount of new fire phenomenology now captured in QUIC-Fire with the change.
A fire inside a spacecraft poses one of the greatest dangers to the crew and mission success. As missions become more complex and longer in duration, the risk of a fire becomes more probable and catastrophic. A greater understanding of the effects of a fire inside a crewed vehicle at potential exploration atmospheres is needed. These exploration atmospheres, such as those being proposed for upcoming Lunar missions, include higher oxygen concentrations and lower pressures, also known as Normoxic conditions. Full scale fire testing, such as those performed during previous space programs, is the most straightforward way to obtain this understanding. These tests are difficult to implement in 1-g and even more challenging to attempt in Lunar-g. Modeling can help inform experiments aimed at determining flammability properties of common materials at exploration atmospheres, as well as determine the effect a fire has inside a spacecraft. A model can also be easily simulated in Lunar-g to predict the effect of gravity on fire propagation. This work focuses on a model of a theoretical partial crew cabin, with potential fire sources being a laptop and a Nomex sleeping bag. A simulation of the crew cabin during a high Heat Release Rate (HRR) fire and low HRR fire at 1-g was compared to simulations at Lunar-g. It was found that in both the low and high HRR cases, the temperature in the cabin was higher in the Lunar-g case than in the 1-g case. This is likely due to the hot products moving out the door of the crew cabin faster in the 1-g case. Modeling case studies like these will help guide future full-scale flammability experiments on Earth and allow for the prediction of fire spread in a Lunar gravity environment in order to design a safer crew cabin.
The NASA DEVELOP National Program builds capacity to use and apply NASA Earth observations to address environmental concerns around the globe. The DEVELOP model builds capacity in both participants (students, recent graduates, and early and transitioning career professionals), who conduct the projects, and partners (decision and policy makers), who are recipients of project methodologies and results. While projects focus on a spectrum of thematic topics, health and air quality related topics made up more than a quarter of DEVELOP’s FY2023 project portfolio. These projects worked in collaboration with over 30 partner organizations throughout the US and internationally to explore how Earth observations could support decision making in areas such as health and air quality, wildland fires, climate, urban development, and transportation and infrastructure. This presentation provides an overview of the DEVELOP model of building capacity to use Earth observation data, environmental decision-making needs identified in health and air quality relevant projects, DEVELOP project case studies, commonly utilized data sources, and lessons learned. Key takeaways include best practices for project development and execution, how to balance learning with delivering impactful results for partners, and water resource relevant decisions guided by project end products.
Emissions from 15 agricultural fires in the southeastern U.S. were measured from the NASA DC-8 research aircraft during the summer 2013 Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) campaign. This study reports a detailed set of emission factors (EFs) for 25 trace gases and 6 fine particle species. The chemical evolution of the primary emissions in seven plumes was examined in detail for ~1.2 h. A Lagrangian plume cross-section model was used to simulate the evolution of ozone (O3), reactive nitrogen species, and organic aerosol (OA). Observed EFs are generally consistent with previous measurements of crop residue burning, but the fires studied here emitted high amounts of SO2 and fine particles, especially primary OA and chloride. Filter-based measurements of aerosol light absorption implied that brown carbon (BrC) was ubiquitous in the plumes. In aged plumes, rapid production of O3, peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), and nitrate was observed with (Delta)O3/(Delta)CO, (Delta)PAN/(Delta)NOy, and (Delta)nitrate/(Delta)NOy reaching approx. 0.1, approx. 0.3, and approx.0.3. For five selected cases, the model reasonably simulated O3 formation but underestimated PAN formation. No significant evolution of OA mass or BrC absorption was observed. However, a consistent increase in oxygen-to-carbon (O/C) ratios of OA indicated that OA oxidation in the agricultural fire plumes was much faster than in urban and forest fire plumes. Finally, total annual SO2, NOx, and CO emissions from agricultural fires in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Missouri were estimated (within a factor of approx. 2) to be equivalent to approx. 2% SO2 from coal combustion and approx. 1% NOx and approx. 9% CO from mobile sources.
In January 2025, a series of fast-moving wildland-urban-interface (WUI) fires swept through the Los Angeles (LA) metropolitan area, causing severe air pollution. While the impacts of WUI fires on outdoor air quality have been extensively studied, indoor exposure remains less understood, despite most people sheltering indoors during WUI fires. Here, this study investigates the spatial and temporal patterns of indoor and outdoor PM 2.5 concentrations across the South Coast Air Basin, with a focus on LA County during the LA fires. Using high-resolution data from co-located indoor and outdoor PurpleAir (PA) sensors, we analyze hourly PM 2.5 levels and indoor/outdoor ratios. Outdoor PM 2.5 concentrations spiked sharply during the fires, reaching unhealthy levels exceeding 130 μg/m 3 , compared to the mean concentration (12 μg/m 3 ) during non-fire hours. Indoor concentrations also increased, though to a lesser extent, peaking around 60 μg/m 3 compared to a mean of 7 μg/m 3 during non-fire hours. This reflects the partial shielding that indoor environments provide from outdoor air pollution. The mean (0.42) and median (0.29) indoor/outdoor PM 2.5 ratios during LA fire hours were lower than the mean (0.93) and median (0.66) ratios during non-fire hours. Indoor/outdoor PM 2.5 ratios across sensors showed a wide distribution, reflecting differences in building characteristics and occupant behavior, such as indoor activities and the use of air purifiers. These findings emphasize the need for guidance and interventions to reduce indoor PM 2.5 exposure and protect public health during extreme WUI fire events.
An engineer and a computer expert from Goddard Space Flight Center were assigned to provide technical assistance in the design and installation of a computer assisted system for dispatching and communicating with fire department personnel and equipment in Baltimore City. Primary contributions were in decision making and management processes. The project is analyzed from four perspectives: (1) fire service; (2) technology transfer; (3) public administration; and (5) innovation. The city benefitted substantially from the approach and competence of the NASA personnel. Given the proper conditions, there are distinct advantages in having a nearby Federal laboratory provide assistance to a city on a continuing basis, as is done in the Baltimore Applications Project.
Wildfire behavior is shaped by complex fire dynamics, with firebrands playing a critical role in spot fire ignition and fire spread. While previous studies have explored firebrand generation and transport, the specific role of towers and troughs from wildland fires in the lofting of firebrands remains unquantified. This study addresses that gap by using physics-based coupled fire-atmosphere model simulations to examine how wildfire towers (updrafts) and troughs (downdrafts) influence firebrand lofting. Our results show that the majority of firebrands (78.85%) are lofted from towers, where strong updrafts drive long-range transport. In contrast, only 21.15% of firebrands are lofted within troughs, where downdrafts cause most firebrands to fall near the fireline. We also find that firebrand size significantly influences lofting behavior, with smaller particles (1 mm radius) exhibiting the strongest correlation with updraft intensity. These findings highlight the dominant role of wildfire towers in promoting long-distance firebrand dispersal—an essential factor in rapid wildfire growth and wildland-urban interface (WUI) fire risks. By quantifying the relationship between firebrand lofting and fire-induced atmospheric features, this study provides critical insights to improve spot fire modeling, support mitigation planning, and enhance firefighter and WUI community safety in spot fire-prone regions.
Approximately 900 whole air samples were collected and assayed for selected C2-C10 hydrocarbons and seven halocarbons during the 5-week Arctic Boundary Layer Expedition (ABLE) 3B conducted in eastern Canadian wetland areas. In more than half of the 46 vertical profiles flown, enhanced nonmethane hydrocarbon (NMHC) concentrations attributable to plumes from Canadian forest fires were observed. Urban plumes, also enhanced in many NMHCs, were separately identified by their high correlation with elevated levels of perchloroethene. Emission factors relative to ethane were determined for 21 hydrocarbons released from Canadian biomass burning. Using these data for ethane, ethyne, propane, n-butane, and carbon monoxide enhancements from the literature, global emissions of these four NMHCs were estimated. Because of its very short atmospheric lifetime and its below detection limit background mixing ratio, 1,3-butadiene is an excellent indicator of recent combustion. No statistically significant emissions of nitrous oxide, isoprene, or CFC 12 were observed in the biomass-burning plumes encountered during ABLE 3B. The presence of the short-lived biogenically emitted isoprene at altitudes as high as 3000 m implies that mixing within the planetary boundary layer (PBL) was rapid. Although background levels of the longer-lived NMHCs in this Canadian region increase during the fire season, isoprene still dominated local hydroxyl radical photochemistry within the PBL except in the immediate vicinity of active fires. The average biomass-burning emission ratios for hydrocarbons from an active fire sampled within minutes of combustion were, relative to ethane, ethene, 2.45; ethyne 0.57; propane, 0.25; propene, 0.73; propyne, 0.06; n-butane, 0.09; i-butane, 0.01; 1-butene, 0.14; cis-2-butene, 0.02; trans-2-butene, 0.03; i-butylene, 0.07; 1,3-butadiene, 0.12; n-pentane, 0.05; i-pentane, 0.03; 1-pentene, 0.06; n-hexane, 0.05; 1-hexene, 0.07; benzene, 0.37; toluene, 0.16.