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Results for “Universal kriging”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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7 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2015

A new surrogate modeling technique combining Kriging and polynomial chaos expansions – Application to uncertainty analysis in computational dosimetry

In numerical dosimetry, the recent advances in high performance computing led to a strong reduction of the required computational time to assess the specific absorption rate (SAR) characterizing the human exposure to electromagnetic waves. However, this procedure remains time-consuming and a single simulation can request several hours. As a consequence, the influence of uncertain input parameters on the SAR cannot be analyzed using crude Monte Carlo simulation. The solution presented here to perform such an analysis is surrogate modeling. This paper proposes a novel approach to build such a surrogate model from a design of experiments. Considering a sparse representation of the polynomial chaos expansions using least-angle regression as a selection algorithm to retain the most influential polynomials, this paper proposes to use the selected polynomials as regression functions for the universal Kriging model. The leave-one-out cross validation is used to select the optimal number of polynomials in the deterministic part of the Kriging model. The proposed approach, called LARS-Kriging-PC modeling, is applied to three benchmark examples and then to a full-scale metamodeling problem involving the exposure of a numerical fetus model to a femtocell device. The performances of the LARS-Kriging-PC are compared to an ordinary Kriging model and to a classical sparse polynomial chaos expansion. The LARS-Kriging-PC appears to have better performances than the two other approaches. A significant accuracy improvement is observed compared to the ordinary Kriging or to the sparse polynomial chaos depending on the studied case. This approach seems to be an optimal solution between the two other classical approaches. A global sensitivity analysis is finally performed on the LARS-Kriging-PC model of the fetus exposure problem.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2017

Orthogonal Gaussian process models

Gaussian processes models are widely adopted for nonparameteric/semi-parametric modeling. Identifiability issues occur when the mean model contains polynomials with unknown coefficients. Though resulting prediction is unaffected, this leads to poor estimation of the coefficients in the mean model, and thus the estimated mean model loses interpretability. This paper introduces a new Gaussian process model whose stochastic part is orthogonal to the mean part to address this issue. As a result, this paper also discusses applications to multi-fidelity simulations using data examples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Oregon Cascades Play Fairway Analysis: Faults and Heat Flow Maps

This submission includes a fault map of the Oregon Cascades and backarc, a probability map of heat flow, and a fault density probability layer. More extensive metadata can be found within each zip file. For information about "Oregon Faults," contact John David Trimble, Oregon State University. trimbljo@onid.oregonstate.edu

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

General-Surrogate Adaptive Sampling Using Interquartile Range for Design Space Exploration

Abstract A surrogate model is a common tool to approximate system response at untested points for design space exploration. Adaptive sampling has been studied for improving the accuracy of surrogates iteratively by introducing additional samples (simulations and experiments). New samples are often selected based on the estimated uncertainty in the design space. While some surrogates such as kriging have readily available uncertainty models for their predictions, other surrogates do not. Consequently, there have been studies of using the process of leaving-samples-out (LSO) used in cross-validation tools to estimate prediction uncertainty, such as the universal prediction distribution (UPD). In this paper, an adaptive sampling scheme for general surrogates is proposed based on LSO, similar to cross-validation and interquartile range (IQR). Multiple submodels are first developed from LSO. The uncertainty is then estimated from the IQR of these surrogates at a given point. New samples are added iteratively at the point with maximum IQR for design space exploration. The proposed scheme is illustrated using kriging, radial basis function, and neural network surrogates. The proposed scheme is evaluated using four algebraic test functions. Multiple sets of initial samples were produced to account for randomness. For these test functions, the proposed scheme was found to be more accurate and robust than kriging with its own uncertainty model. The proposed scheme was more accurate than the UPD for three out of the four test functions. For a fixed number of samples, the IQR-based adaptive sampling also proved to be more accurate than all-at-once sampling in most cases even when the estimated uncertainty was only mildly correlated with prediction errors.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2015

Oregon Cascades Play Fairway Analysis: Maps

The maps in this submission include: heat flow, alkalinity, Cl, Mg, SiO2, Quaternary volcanic rocks, faults, and land ownership. All of the Oregon Cascade region. The work was done by John Trimble, in 2015, at Oregon State University.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

JetGP: A derivative enhanced Gaussian process library

Derivative enhanced Gaussian Processes (DEGPs) can significantly improve surrogate model accuracy over standard Gaussian Process (GP) formulations by incorporating derivative information. However, standard implementations scale poorly with dimension, limiting their use in high dimensional engineering problems. JetGP is a Python framework that unifies existing derivative enhanced GP methodologies into a single library and extends them to support arbitrary order derivative information. The library implements four complementary formulations: standard derivative enhanced Gaussian Processes (DEGP), directional DEGP (DDEGP), generalized directional DEGP (GDDEGP), and weighted DEGP (WDEGP). By unifying these approaches in a consistent interface with robust numerical implementations, JetGP enables practitioners to balance predictive accuracy and computational efficiency for high dimensional optimization, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis in engineering design.

Derivative enhanced Gaussian process↗
DOE OSTI2020

Play Fairway Analysis: Structurally Controlled Geothermal Systems in the Eastern Great Basin Extensional Regime, Utah

A research team with membership from the University of Utah/Energy & Geoscience Institute, the University of Utah/Dept. of Geology & Geophysics, and the Utah Geological Survey, undertook a play fairway analysis (PFA) for geothermal resources in the Eastern Great Basin (EGB) extensional tectonic regime of western Utah. This is a high-priority region for geothermal exploration because active Basin and Range (B&R) extension with volcanism having a N-S strike is superimposed upon pre-existing E-W belts of plutonic rocks and large-scale structural lineaments. Cumulative heat flow along the N-S strike of the state totals approximately 5 GWt above background stable interior. Three electricity producing power plants currently exist with substantial potential for increase. Succinctly, our PFA approach aims to resolve potential sources of heat and permeability in the region, which are the two principal criteria for establishing a geothermal resource. An initial Phase 1 was carried out using only existing geoscientific data in the area. Criteria selected for focusing heat potential include direct heat flow measurements in boreholes, magnetotelluric (MT) low resistivity anomalies, fluid/gas geochemistry, and proximity to recent volcanic eruptions. Permeability is established through geological structures (fault density, critically stressed areas, seismicity, gravity), and MT low resistivity anomalies. In Phase II of this PFA project, additional geological, geophysical and geochemical data were acquired and analysis carried out primarily over promising composite common risk (CCR) areas initially identified in Phase I in order to focus prospectivity and prepare for drilling recommendations. These prospects are near the Twin Peaks rhyolite field, high heat flow areas north of the producing Cove Fort system, and geophysical structure beneath the Crater Knoll area off the northeast flank of the Mineral Mountains. Additional data included MT site fill-in, structural mapping and analysis using high-resolution imagery, gravity and on-ground mapping, Nodal 3C passive seismic collection, and passive 3He surveying. Heat source and permeability potential are again expressed in terms of their individual common risk segment (CRS) maps, with a color scheme using green for most favorable (low risk) and red for least favorable (high risk). Diverse data types are united through the technique of probability kriging, which establishes prospectivity thresholds for each data type and then computes probability of exceeding that threshold over the PFA area. Modified CRS and CCRS maps are compared to those of Phase I to highlight tighter prospectivity focus. In doing so, the prospectivity threshold for heat was increased significantly to narrow the targeting. In the final Phase III of this project where a recommended deep thermal gradient hole was sited, additional geophysical, geochemical and geological field collection and analysis was carried out to refine drill hole targeting. This includes prospect-scale MT, gravity, structure, passive seismic deployment (Cove Fort area), and detailed 3He isotope profiling. It was the recommendation of the DOE Technical Monitoring Team (TMT) that one or more holes be sited in the north-ern Cove Fort area where legacy TG gradient holes showed high cumulative heat flow. These were to be of moderate depth, 2000-3000 feet, to reach the geothermal fluid table expected to start in excess of 1000 feet depth. The drilling organization stipulated by the DOE/GTO was that of the USGS Research Drilling Program (RDP) centered in Las Vegas, NV. A detailed well plan, appended to this report, was developed principally by Dr. Ben Barker consulting to University of Utah, Dr. Steve Pye on the DOE TMT, Mr. Steven Crawford of the USGS-RDP, and the project PI Phil Wannamaker. However, temperature and possible H 2 S at the systems lead to cancellation of the drilling last-minute as this appeared outside the experience base of the USGS-RDP. We hope to have the opportunity to revisit the test drilling and expand the Play Fairway Analysis of this region at some point in the future.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗