The Impact of Tropospheric and Stratospheric Tropical Variability on the Location, Frequency, and Duration of Cool-Season Extratropical Synoptic Events
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Hannah E. Attard↗
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A Pacific Tropical Decadal Variability Challenge for Climate Models
Understanding and forecasting Tropical Pacific Decadal-scale Variability (TPDV) strongly rely on climate model simulations. Using a Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) diagnostic approach, we reveal Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models have significant challenges in reproducing the spatial structure and dominant mechanisms of TPDV. Specifically, while the models' ensemble mean pattern of TPDV resembles that of observations, the spread across models is very large and most models show significant differences from observations. In observations, removing the coupling between extratropics and tropics reduces TPDV by ~60%–70%, and removing the tropical thermocline variability makes the central tropical Pacific a key center of action for TPDV and El Niño Southern Oscillation variability. These characteristics are only confirmed in a subset of models. Differences between observations and simulations are outside the range of natural internal TPDV noise and pose important questions regarding our ability to model the impacts of natural internal low-frequency variability superimposed on long-term climate change.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Interannual Variabilities in Tropical Tropospheric Ozone
This paper presents the first detailed characterization of interannual variability in tropical tropospheric column ozone (TCO) to delineate the relative importance of biomass burning and large-scale transport. TCO time series are derived from 20 years (1979-1998) of total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) data using the convective cloud differential (CCD) method. Our study identifies three regions in the tropics with distinctly different characteristics related to interannual variability. These three regions are the eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and western Pacific. The Atlantic region indicates a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in TCO which is out of phase with the QBO in stratospheric ozone. This is consistent with the photochemical control of this region by ozone-producing precursors. The observed pattern however does not seem to be related to interannual variability in ozone precursors related to biomass burning. Instead it appears to be a manifestation of the UV modulation of upper tropospheric chemistry on a QBO time scale caused by stratospheric ozone. During El Nino events there is anomalously low TCO in the eastern Pacific and high values in the western Pacific, indicating the effects of convectively-driven transport. The observed increase of 10-20 DU in TCO in the Indonesian region in the western Pacific during the recent 1997-1998 El Nino was associated with large-scale fires which may have contributed 5-10 DU of the total increase.
Ziemke, Jerry R.↗
The Tropical Subseasonal Variability Simulated in the NASA GISS General Circulation Model
The tropical subseasonal variability simulated by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model, Model E2, is examined. Several versions of Model E2 were developed with changes to the convective parameterization in order to improve the simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). When the convective scheme is modified to have a greater fractional entrainment rate, Model E2 is able to simulate MJO-like disturbances with proper spatial and temporal scales. Increasing the rate of rain reevaporation has additional positive impacts on the simulated MJO. The improvement in MJO simulation comes at the cost of increased biases in the mean state, consistent in structure and amplitude with those found in other GCMs when tuned to have a stronger MJO. By reinitializing a relatively poor-MJO version with restart files from a relatively better-MJO version, a series of 30-day integrations is constructed to examine the impacts of the parameterization changes on the organization of tropical convection. The poor-MJO version with smaller entrainment rate has a tendency to allow convection to be activated over a broader area and to reduce the contrast between dry and wet regimes so that tropical convection becomes less organized. Besides the MJO, the number of tropical-cyclone-like vortices simulated by the model is also affected by changes in the convection scheme. The model simulates a smaller number of such storms globally with a larger entrainment rate, while the number increases significantly with a greater rain reevaporation rate.
Kim, Daehyun↗
Seasonal and Interannual Variabilities in Tropical Tropospheric Ozone
This paper presents a detailed characterization of seasonal and interannual variability in tropical tropospheric column ozone (TCO). TCO time series are derived from 20 years (1979-1998) of total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) data using the convective cloud differential (CCD) method. Our study identifies three regions in the tropics with distinctly different zonal characteristics related to seasonal and interannual variability. These three regions are the eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and western Pacific. Results show that in both the eastern and western Pacific seasonal-cycle variability of northern hemisphere (NH) TCO exhibits maximum amount during NH spring whereas largest amount in southern hemisphere (SH) TCO occurs during SH spring. In the Atlantic, maximum TCO in both hemispheres occurs in SH spring. These seasonal cycles are shown to be comparable to seasonal cycles present in ground-based ozonesonde measurements. Interannual variability in the Atlantic region indicates a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signal that is out of phase with the QBO present in stratospheric column ozone (SCO). This is consistent with high pollution and high concentrations of mid-to-upper tropospheric O3-producing precursors in this region. The out of phase relation suggests a UV modulation of tropospheric photochemistry caused by the QBO in stratospheric O3. During El Nino events there is anomalously low TCO in the eastern Pacific and high values in the western Pacific, indicating the effects of convectively-driven transport of low-value boundary layer O3 (reducing TCO) and O3 precursors including H2O and OH. A simplified technique is proposed to derive high-resolution maps of TCO in the tropics even in the absence of tropopause-level clouds. This promising approach requires only total ozone gridded measurements and utilizes the small variability observed in TCO near the dateline. This technique has an advantage compared to the CCD method because the latter requires high-resolution footprint measurements of both reflectivity and total ozone in the presence of tropopause-level cloud tops.
Ziemke, J. R.↗
Mechanisms of tropical Pacific decadal variability
Naturally occurring tropical Pacific variations at timescales of 7–70 years — tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) — describe basin-scale sea surface temperature (SST), sea-level pressure and heat content anomalies. Several mechanisms are proposed to explain TPDV, which can originate through oceanic processes, atmospheric processes or as an El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) residual. In this Review, we synthesize knowledge of these mechanisms, their characteristics and contribution to TPDV. Oceanic processes include off-equatorial Rossby waves, which mediate oceanic adjustment and contribute to variations in equatorial thermocline depth and SST; variations in the strength of the shallow upper-ocean overturning circulation, which exhibit a large anti-correlation with equatorial Pacific SST at interannual and decadal timescales; and the propagation of salinity-compensated temperature (spiciness) anomalies from the subtropics to the equatorial thermocline. Atmospheric processes include midlatitude internal variability leading to tropical and subtropical wind anomalies, which result in equatorial SST anomalies and feedbacks that enhance persistence; and atmospheric teleconnections from Atlantic and Indian Ocean SST variability, which induce winds conducive to decadal anomalies of the opposite sign in the Pacific. Although uncertain, the tropical adjustment through Rossby wave activity is likely a dominant mechanism. Finally, a deeper understanding of the origin and spectral characteristics of TPDV-related winds is a key priority.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Impact of Surface Emissions to the Zonal Variability of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone and Carbon Monoxide for November 2004
The chemical and dynamical processes governing the zonal variability of tropical tropospheric ozone and carbon monoxide are investigated for November 2004 using satellite observations, in-situ measurements, and chemical transport models in conjunction with inverse-estimated surface emissions. Vertical ozone profile estimates from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) and ozone sonde measurements from the Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes (SHADOZ) network show the so called zonal 'wave-one' pattern, which is characterized by peak ozone concentrations (70-80 ppb) centered over the Atlantic, as well as elevated concentrations of ozone over Indonesia and Australia (60-70 ppb) in the lower troposphere. Observational evidence from TES CO vertical profiles and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) NO2 columns point to regional surface emissions as an important contributor to the elevated ozone over Indonesia. This contribution is investigated with the GEOS-Chem chemistry and transport model using surface emission estimates derived from an optimal inverse model, which was constrained by TES and Measurements Of Pollution In The Troposphere (MOPITT) CO profiles (Jones et al., 2007). These a posteriori estimates, which were over a factor of 2 greater than climatological emissions, reduced differences between GEOS-Chem and TES ozone observations by 30-40% and led to changes in GEOS-Chem upper tropospheric ozone of up to 40% over Indonesia. The remaining residual differences can be explained in part by upper tropospheric ozone produced from lightning NOx in the South Atlantic. Furthermore, model simulations from GEOS-Chem indicate that ozone over Indonesian/Australian is more sensitive to changes in surface emissions of NOx than ozone over the tropical Atlantic.
tropical tropospheric ozone↗
The Low-Frequency Variability of the Tropical Atlantic Ocean
Upper ocean temperature variability in the tropical Atlantic is examined from the Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (COADS) as well as from an ocean model simulation forced by COADS anomalies appended to a monthly climatology. Our findings are as follows: Only the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the northern tropics are driven by heat fluxes, while the southern tropical variability arises from wind driven ocean circulation changes. The subsurface temperatures in the northern and southern tropics are found to have a strong linkage to buoyancy forcing changes in the northern North Atlantic. Evidence for Kelvin-like boundary wave propagation from the high latitudes is presented from the model simulation. This extratropical influence is associated with wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) forcing and manifests itself in the northern and southern tropical temperature anomalies of the same sign at depth of 100-200 meters as result of a Rossby wave propagation away from the eastern boundary in the wake of the boundary wave passage. The most apparent association of the southern tropical sea surface temperature anomalies (STA) arises with the anomalous cross-equatorial winds which can be related to both NAO and the remote influence from the Pacific equatorial region. These teleconnections are seasonal so that the NAO impact on the tropical SST is the largest it mid-winter but in spring and early summer the Pacific remote influence competes with NAO. However, NAO appears to have a more substantial role than the Pacific influence at low frequencies during the last 50 years. The dynamic origin of STA is indirectly confirmed from the SST-heat flux relationship using ocean model experiments which remove either anomalous wind stress forcing or atmospheric forcing anomalies contributing to heat exchange.
Haekkinen, Sirpa↗
The Role of Lightning in Controlling Interannual Variability of Tropical Tropospheric Ozone and OH and its Implications for Climate
Nitrogen oxides (NO(x) = NO + NO2) produced by lightning make a major contribution to the production of the dominant tropospheric oxidants (OH and ozone). These oxidants control the lifetime of many trace gases including long-lived greenhouse gases, and control the source-receptor relationship of inter-hemispheric pollutant transport. Lightning is affected by meteorological variability, and therefore represents a potentially important tropospheric chemistry-climate feedback. Understanding how interannual variability (IAV) in lightning affects IAV in ozone and OH in the recent past is important if we are to predict how oxidant levels may change in a future warmer climate. However, lightning parameterizations for chemical transport models (CTMs) show low skill in reproducing even climatological distributions of flash rates from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Optical Transient Detector (OTD) satellite instruments. We present an optimized regional scaling algorithm for CTMs that enables sufficient sampling of spatiotemporally sparse satellite lightning data from LIS to constrain the spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability of tropical lightning. We construct a monthly time series of lightning flash rates for 1998-2010 and 35degS-35degN, and find a correlation of IAV in total tropical lightning with El Nino. We use the IAV-constraint to drive a 9-year hindcast (1998-2006) of the GEOS-Chem 3D chemical transport model, and find the increased IAV in LNO(x) drives increased IAV in ozone and OH, improving the model fs ability to simulate both. Although lightning contributes more than any other emission source to IAV in ozone, we find ozone more sensitive to meteorology, particularly convective transport. However, we find IAV in OH to be highly sensitive to lightning NO(x), and the constraint improves the ability of the model to capture the temporal behavior of OH anomalies inferred from observations of methyl chloroform and other gases. The sensitivity of OH is explained using photochemical reaction rates which show a "magnification" effect of the initial lightning NO perturbation on OH primary production, HO(x) recycling, and OH loss frequencies. This influence on OH may represent a negative feedback, if lightning increases in a warming world..
Murray, Lee T.↗
Intrinsic Century-Scale Variability in Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures and Their Influence on Western US Hydroclimate
Hydroclimate variability of the southwest United States (SWUS) is influenced by the tropical Pacific Ocean, particularly through the teleconnection to El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is expected to be altered by climate change. Natural variability in this teleconnection has not been robustly quantified, complicating the detection of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we use a linear inverse model (LIM) to quantify natural variability in the ENSO-SWUS teleconnection. The LIM yields realistic teleconnection patterns with century-scale variability comparable to simulations from the Last Millennium Ensemble project and the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6. The variability quantified by the LIM illuminates two aspects of our understanding of ENSO and its impacts: the inherent statistics of the observable system can produce century-long periods with a wide range of correlations to SWUS hydroclimate, including nonsignificant correlations, and thus that detecting changes in ENSO-related hydroclimate variability is challenging in a changing climate.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Improved Understanding of the Modeled QBO Using MLS Observations and MERRA Reanalysis
The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) dominates the variability of the tropical stratosphere on interannual time scales. The QBO has been shown to extend its influence into the chemical composition of this region through dynamical mechanisms. We have started our analysis using the realistic QBO internally generated by the Goddard Earth Observing System Version 5 (GEOS-5) general circulation model coupled to a comprehensive stratospheric and tropospheric chemical mechanism forced with observed sea surface temperatures over the past 33 years. We will show targeted comparisons with observations from NASAs Aura satellite Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis to provide insight into the simulation of the primary and secondary circulations associated with the QBO. Using frequency spectrum analysis and multiple linear regression we can illuminate the resulting circulations and deduce the strengths and weaknesses in their modeled representation. Inclusion of the QBO in our simulation improves the representation of the subtropical barriers and overall tropical variability. The QBO impact on tropical upwelling is important to quantify when calculating trends in sub-decadal scale datasets.
MERRA↗
Planetary circulations in the presence of transient and self-induced heating
The research program focuses on large-scale circulations and their interaction with the global convective pattern. An 11-year record of global cloud imagery and contemporaneous fields of motion and temperature have been used to investigate organized convection and coherent variability of the tropical circulation operating on intraseasonal time scales. This study provides a detailed portrait of tropical variability associated with the so-called Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). It reveals the nature, geographical distribution, and seasonality of discrete convective signal, which is a measure of feedback between the circulation and the convective pattern. That discrete spectral behavior has been evaluated in light of natural variability of the ITCZ associated with climatological convection. A composite signature of the MJO, based on cross-covariance statistics of cloud cover, motion, and temperature, has been constructed to characterize the lifecycle of the disturbance in terms of these properties. The composite behavior has also been used to investigate the influence the MJO exerts on the zonal-mean circulation and the involvement of the MJO in transfers of momentum between the atmosphere and the solid Earth. The aforementioned observational studies have led to the production of two animations. One reveals the convective signal in band-pass filtered OLR and compares it to climatological convection. The other is a 3-dimensional visualization of the composite lifecycle of the MJO. With a clear picture of the MJO in hand, feedback between the circulation and the convective pattern can be diagnosed meaningfully in numerical simulations. This process is being explored in calculations with the linearized primitive equations on the sphere in the presence of realistic stability and shear. The numerical framework represents climatological convection as a space-time stochastic process and wave-induced convection in terms of the vertically-integrated moisture flux convergence. In these calculations, frictional convergence near the equator emerges as a key to feedback between the circulation and the convective pattern. At low latitudes, nearly geostrophic balance in the boundary layer gives way to frictional balance. This shifts the wave-induced convection into phase with the temperature anomaly and allows the attending heating to feed back positively onto the circulation. The calculations successfully reproduce the salient features of the MJO. They are being used to understand the growth and decay phases of the composite lifecycle and the conditions that favor amplification of the MJO.
Salby, Murry L.↗
Variability in Tropical Tropospheric Ozone as Observed by SHADOZ
The SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes) ozone sounding network was initiated in 1998 to improve the coverage of tropical in-situ ozone measurements for satellite validation, algorithm development and related process studies. Over 2000 soundings have been archived at the central website, , for 12 stations: Ascension Island; Nairobi and Malindi, Kenya; Irene, South Africa; Reunion Island; Watukosek, Java; Fiji; Tahiti; American Samoa; San Cristobal, Galapagos; Natal, Brazil; Paramaribo, Surinam. Some results to date indicate reliability of the measurement and highly variable interactions between ozone and tropical meteorology. For example: 1. By using ECC sondes with similar procedures, 5-10% accuracy and precision (1-sigma) of the sonde total ozone measurement was achieved [Thompson et al., 2003al; 2. Week-to-week variability in tropospheric ozone is so great that statistics are frequently not Gaussian and most stations vary up to a factor of 3 in column amount over the course of a year [Thompson et al., 2002b]. 3. Longitudinal variability in tropospheric ozone profiles is a consistent feature, with a 10- 15 DU column-integrated difference between Atlantic and Pacific sites; this is the cause of the zonal wave-one feature in total ozone [Shiotani, 1992]. The ozone record from Paramaribo, Surinam (6N, 55W) is a marked contrast to southern tropical ozone because Surinam is often north of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Interpretations of SHADOZ time-series and approaches to classification suggested by SHADOZ data over Africa and the Indian Ocean will be described.
Thompson, Anne M.↗
Evidence that Horizontal Moisture Advection Regulates the Ubiquitous Amplification of Rainfall Variability over Tropical Oceans
The column moist static energy (MSE) budget equation approximates the processes associated with column moistening and drying in the tropics, and is therefore predictive of precipitation amplification and decay. We use ERA-Interim (ERA-I) and TRMM 3B42 data to investigate day-to-day convective variability and distinguish the roles of horizontal MSE (or moisture) advection versus vertical advection, sources, and sinks. Over tropical convergence zones, results suggest that horizontal moisture advection is a primary driver of day-to-day precipitation fluctuations; when drying via horizontal moisture advection is smaller (greater) than Chikira’s “column process,” precipitation tends to amplify (decay). In the absence of horizontal moisture advection, precipitation tends to increase spontaneously almost universally through a positive column process feedback. This bulk positive feedback is characterized by negative effective gross moist stability (GMS), which is maintained throughout the tropical convergence zones. How this positive feedback is achieved varies geographically, depending on the shape of vertical velocity (omega) profiles. In regions where omega profiles are top-heavy, the effective GMS is negative primarily owing to strong feedbacks between convection and diabatic MSE sources (radiative and surface fluxes). In these regions, vertical MSE advection stabilizes the atmosphere (positive vertical GMS). Where omega profiles are bottom-heavy, by contrast, a positive feedback is primarily driven by import of MSE through a shallow circulation (negative vertical GMS). The diabatic feedback and vertical GMS are in a seesaw balance, offsetting one another. Our results suggest that ubiquitous convective variability is amplified by the same mechanism as moisture-mode instability.
horizontal moisture advection↗
A42F-03: Small-Scale Variability in Tropical Tropopause Layer Humidity
Recent advances in statistical parameterizations of cirrus cloud processes for use in global models are highlighting the need for information about small-scale fluctuations in upper tropospheric humidity and the physical processes that control the humidity variability. To address these issues, we have analyzed high-resolution airborne water vapor measurements obtained in the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX) over the tropical Pacific between 14 and 20 km. Using accurate and precise 1-Hz water vapor measurements along approximately-level aircraft flight legs, we calculate structure functions spanning horizontal scales ranging from about 0.2 to 50 km, and we compare the water vapor variability in the lower (about 14 km) and upper (16-19 km) Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL). We also compare the magnitudes and scales of variability inside TTL cirrus versus in clear-sky regions. The measurements show that in the upper TTL, water vapor concentration variance is stronger inside cirrus than in clear-sky regions. Using simulations of TTL cirrus formation, we show that small variability in clear-sky humidity is amplified by the strong sensitivity of ice nucleation rate to supersaturation, which results in highly-structured clouds that subsequently drive variability in the water vapor field. In the lower TTL, humidity variability is correlated with recent detrainment from deep convection. The structure functions indicate approximately power-law scaling with spectral slopes ranging from about minus 5 divided by 3, to minus 2.
water vapor↗
Radar Altimetry as a Proxy for Determining Terrestrial Water Storage Variability in Tropical Basins
The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission has provided us with unforeseen information on terrestrial water-storage (TWS) variability, contributing to our understanding of global hydrological processes, including hydrological extreme events and anthropogenic impacts on water storage. Attempts to decompose GRACE-based TWS signals into its different water storage layers, i.e., surface water storage (SWS), soil moisture, groundwater and snow, have shown that SWS is a principal component, particularly in the tropics, where major rivers flow over arid regions at high latitudes. Here, we demonstrate that water levels, measured with radar altimeters at a limited number of locations, can be used to reconstruct gridded GRACE-based TWS signals in the Amazon basin, at spatial resolutions ranging from 0.5 to 3°, with mean absolute errors (MAE) as low as 2.5 cm and correlations as high as 0.98. We show that, at 3° spatial resolution, spatially-distributed TWS time series can be precisely reconstructed with as few as 41 water-level time series located within the basin. The proposed approach is competitive when compared to existing TWS estimates derived from physically based and computationally expensive methods. Also, a validation experiment indicates that TWS estimates can be extrapolated to periods beyond that of the model regression with low errors. The approach is robust, based on regression models and interpolation techniques, and offers a new possibility to reproduce spatially and temporally distributed TWS that could be used to fill inter-mission gaps and to extend GRACE-based TWS time series beyond its timespan.
Terrestrial water storage↗
Two Distinct Roles of Atlantic SSTs in ENSO Variability: North Tropical Atlantic SST and Atlantic Nino
Two distinct roles of the Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), namely, the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) SST and the Atlantic Nino, on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability are investigated using the observational data from 1980 to 2010 and coupled model experiments. It appears that the NTA SST and the Atlantic Nino can be used as two independent predictors for predicting the development of ENSO events in the following season. Furthermore, they are likely to be linked to different types of El Nino events. Specifically, the NTA SST cooling during February, March, and April contributes to the central Pacific warming at the subsequent winter season, while the negative Atlantic Nino event during June, July, and August contributes to enhancing the eastern Pacific warming. The coupled model experiments support these results. With the aid of a lagged inverse relationship, the statistical forecast using two Atlantic indices can successfully predict various ENSO indices.
Atlantic Nino↗
Understanding the Spatiotemporal Variability of Tropical Orographic Rainfall Using Convective Plume Buoyancy
Abstract Mechanical forcing by orography affects precipitating convection across many tropical regions, but controls on the intensity and horizontal extent of the orographic precipitation peak and rain shadow remain poorly understood. A recent theory explains this control of precipitation as arising from modulation of lower-tropospheric temperature and moisture by orographic mechanical forcing, setting the distribution of convective rainfall by controlling parcel buoyancy. Using satellite and reanalysis data, we evaluate this theory by investigating spatiotemporal precipitation variations in six mountainous tropical regions spanning South and Southeast Asia, and the Maritime Continent. We show that a strong relationship holds in these regions between daily precipitation and a measure of convective plume buoyancy. This measure depends on boundary layer thermodynamic properties and lower-free-tropospheric moisture and temperature. Consistent with the theory, temporal variations in lower-free-tropospheric temperature are primarily modulated by orographic mechanical lifting through changes in cross-slope wind speed. However, winds directed along background horizontal moisture gradients also influence lower-tropospheric moisture variations in some regions. The buoyancy measure is also shown to explain many aspects of the spatial patterns of precipitation. Finally, we present a linear model with two horizontal dimensions that combines mountain wave dynamics with a linearized closure exploiting the relationship between precipitation and plume buoyancy. In some regions, this model skillfully captures the spatial structure and intensity of rainfall; it underestimates rainfall in regions where time-mean ascent in large-scale convergence zones shapes lower-tropospheric humidity. Overall, these results provide new understanding of fundamental processes controlling subseasonal and spatial variations in tropical orographic precipitation.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗