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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

Modeling and control for closed environment plant production systems

A computer program was developed to study multiple crop production and control in controlled environment plant production systems. The program simulates crop growth and development under nominal and off-nominal environments. Time-series crop models for wheat (Triticum aestivum), soybean (Glycine max), and white potato (Solanum tuberosum) are integrated with a model-based predictive controller. The controller evaluates and compensates for effects of environmental disturbances on crop production scheduling. The crop models consist of a set of nonlinear polynomial equations, six for each crop, developed using multivariate polynomial regression (MPR). Simulated data from DSSAT crop models, previously modified for crop production in controlled environments with hydroponics under elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, were used for the MPR fitting. The model-based predictive controller adjusts light intensity, air temperature, and carbon dioxide concentration set points in response to environmental perturbations. Control signals are determined from minimization of a cost function, which is based on the weighted control effort and squared-error between the system response and desired reference signal.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗
NASA NTRS1991

Nonlinear time-series-based adaptive control applications

A control design methodology based on a nonlinear time-series reference model is presented. It is indicated by highly nonlinear simulations that such designs successfully stabilize troublesome aircraft maneuvers undergoing large changes in angle of attack as well as large electric power transients due to line faults. In both applications, the nonlinear controller was significantly better than the corresponding linear adaptive controller. For the electric power network, a flexible AC transmission system with series capacitor power feedback control is studied. A bilinear autoregressive moving average reference model is identified from system data, and the feedback control is manipulated according to a desired reference state. The control is optimized according to a predictive one-step quadratic performance index. A similar algorithm is derived for control of rapid changes in aircraft angle of attack over a normally unstable flight regime. In the latter case, however, a generalization of a bilinear time-series model reference includes quadratic and cubic terms in angle of attack.

Mohler, R. R.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Ionospheric Signature of Surface Mine Blasts from Global Positioning System Measurements

Sources such as atmospheric or buried explosions and shallow earthquakes are known to produce infrasonic pressure waves in the atmosphere. Because of the coupling between neutral particles and electrons at ionospheric altitudes, these acoustic and gravity waves induce variations of the ionospheric electron density. The Global Positioning System (GPS) provides a way of directly measuring the total electron content in the ionosphere and, therefore, of detecting such perturbations in the upper atmosphere. In July and August 1996, three large surface mine blasts (1.5 Kt each) were detonated at the Black Thunder coal mine in eastern Wyoming. As part of a seismic and acoustic monitoring- experiment, we deployed five dual-frequency GPS receivers at distances ranging from 50 to 200 km from the mine and were able to detect the ionospheric perturbation caused by the blasts. The perturbation starts 10 to 15 min after the blast, lasts for about 30 min, and propagates with an apparent horizontal velocity of 1200 meters per second. Its amplitude reaches 3 x 10 (exp 14) el per square meters in the 7-3 min period band, a value close to the ionospheric perturbation caused by the M = 6.7 Northridge earthquake. The small signal-to-noise ratio of the perturbation can be improved by slant-stacking the electron content time-series recorded by the different GPS receivers taking into account the horizontal propagation of the perturbation. The energy of the perturbation is concentrated in the 200 to 300 second period band, a result consistent with previous observations and numerical model predictions. The 300 second band probably corresponds to gravity modes and shorter periods to acoustic modes, respectively. Using a 1-D stratified velocity model of the atmosphere we show that linear acoustic ray tracing fits arrival times at all GPS receivers. We interpret the perturbation as a direct acoustic wave caused by the explosion itself. This study shows that even relatively small subsurface events can produce ionospheric perturbations that are above the detection threshold of the GPS technique. By sensing derivative signals, which can be detected over a relatively broad region, it appears that GPS might be particularly useful for source characterization within the first acoustic quiet zone where infrasound would probably be ineffective. This suggests that dual-frequency GPS monitoring could contribute to Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty verification.

Calais, Eric↗
NASA NTRS1999

Observations of Land Surface Variability Using Passive Microwave Sensing

Understanding the global variability of land surface wetness (soil moisture), skin temperature, and related surface fluxes of heat and moisture is key to assessing the importance of the land surface in influencing climate. The feasibility of producing model estimates of these quantities is being studied as part of the International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP). In the GSWP approach, meteorological observations and analyses are used to drive global circulation models. Satellite measurements can provide independent estimates of key land surface parameters that are needed for initializing and validating the climate models and for monitoring long-term change. Satellite observations of the land surface can also be assimilated into soil models to estimate moisture in the root zone. In our research, passive microwave satellite data recorded during 1978-1987 from the Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) are being used to examine spatial and temporal trends in surface soil moisture, vegetation, and temperature. These data include observations at C and X bands (6.6 and 10.7 GHz), which are not available on the current Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and are precursors to data that will become available from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) on Advanced Earth Observing Satellite (ADEOS-II) and Earth Observing System (EOS) PM1 in the year 2000. A chart shows a time-series of SMMR-derived surface temperature, T-e and surface soil moisture M, retrieved on a 0.5 deg x 0.5 deg grid and further averaged over a 4 deg x 10 deg study region in the African Sahel. Also shown are National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) model outputs of surface temperature, T-sfc, and soil wetness, Soil-w. The variables have been scaled to have similar dynamic ranges on the plots. The NCEP data from the NCEP Reanalysis Project are monthly averages on a 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg grid averaged over the 4 deg x 10 deg study area. Comparisons of SMMR retrievals with forecast model output show the potential of the satellite data for validating model output and monitoring long-term trends. Continuing work will extend these results to other regions to validate the retrievals more quantitatively. In preparation for the launch of AMSR, field experiments are planned in collaboration with the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) experiments to evaluate the satellite-derived soil moisture measurements and to demonstrate their usefulness for land surface hydrology and climate. Additional information is contained in the original.

Njoku, Eni G.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Comparison of a 2D Photochemical Model to Data Using Statistical Trend Analysis

We have analyzed our 23-year merged ozone data set for variability and trends with a statistical time-series model. To assist in that analysis, we have analyzed the Goddard ED photochemical model for the same time period with the same time-series model. Multiple runs of the photochemical model allow us to separate the effects of various terms on ozone, such as solar cycle and volcanic eruptions. We use this to help us separate those signals from each other in the data. We also used a smoothed version of the photochemical model's prediction of global ozone change in place of a simple linear trend. We find a number of interesting results. This particular photochemical model is more sensitive to chlorine perturbations than the atmosphere appears to be. It is less sensitive to solar cycle. It predicts an effect from the Pinatubo eruption that is nearly symmetric in the two hemispheres, but the data appears to have not responded to Pinatubo in the southern mid-latitudes. These results and their uncertainties will be discussed.

Stolarski, Richard S.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Comparison of a 2D Photochemical Model to Data Using Statistical Trend Analysis

We have analyzed our 23-year merged ozone data set for variability and trends with a statistical time-series model. To assist in that analysis, we have analyzed the Goddard 2D photochemical model for the same time period with the same time-series model. Multiple runs of the photochemical model allow us to separate the effects of various terms on ozone, such as solar cycle and volcanic eruptions. We use this to help us separate those signals from each other in the data. We also used a smoothed version of the photochemical model's prediction of global ozone change in place of a simple linear trend. We find a number of interesting results. This particular photochemical model is more sensitive to chlorine perturbations than the atmosphere appears to be. It is less sensitive to solar cycle. It predicts an effect from the Pinatubo eruption that is nearly symmetric in the two hemispheres, but the data appears to have not responded to Pinatubo in the southern mid-latitudes. These results and their uncertainties will be discussed.

Bhartia, P. K.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Do slow orbital periodicities appear in the record of earth's magnetic reversals?

Time-series spectral analysis has been performed on the dates of geomagnetic reversals of the last 20 Myr BP and earlier. Possible evidence is found from the presence of high spectral peaks for two very long periodicities, 0.4 Myr and 1.3 Myr, that may be associated with slow variations of the earth's orbital eccentricity as predicted by Berger. However, statistical significance tests and a number of other arguments do not confirm the two detections.

Stothers, Richard B.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Dynamical Interpolation of Mesoscale Flows in the TOPEX/Poseidon Diamond Surrounding the U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study Site

An open boundary ocean model is configured in a domain bounded by the four TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) ground tracks surrounding the US Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study (BATS) site. This implementation facilitates prescription of model boundary conditions directly from altimetric measurements (both TIP and ERS-2). The expected error characteristics for a domain of this size with periodically updated boundary conditions are established with idealized numerical experiments using simulated data. A hindcast simulation is then constructed using actual altimetric observations during the period October 1992 through September 1998. Quantitative evaluation of the simulation suggests significant skill. The correlation coefficient between predicted sea level anomaly and ERS observations in the model interior is 0.89; that for predicted versus observed dynamic height anomaly based on hydrography at the BATS site is 0.73. Comparison with the idealized experiments suggests that the main source of error in the hindcast is temporal undersampling of the boundary conditions. The hindcast simulation described herein provides a basis for retrospective analysis of BATS observations in the context of the mesoscale eddy field.

McGillicuddy, Dennis J., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Dynamical Interpolation of Mesoscale Flows in the TOPEX/ Poseidon Diamond Surrounding the U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study Site

An open boundary ocean model is configured in a domain bounded by the four TOPEX/Poseidon (TIP) ground tracks surrounding the U.S. Joint Global Ocean Flux Study Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site. This implementation facilitates prescription of model boundary conditions directly from altimetric measurements (both TIP and ERS-2). The expected error characteristics for a domain of this size with periodically updated boundary conditions are established with idealized numerical experiments using simulated data. A hindcast simulation is then constructed using actual altimetric observations during the period October 1992 through September 1998. Quantitative evaluation of the simulation suggests significant skill. The correlation coefficient between predicted sea level anomaly and ERS observations in the model interior is 0.89; that for predicted versus observed dynamic height anomaly based on hydrography at the BATS site is 0.73. Comparison with the idealized experiments suggests that the main source of error in the hindcast is temporal undersampling of the boundary conditions. The hindcast simulation described herein provides a basis for retrospective analysis of BATS observations in the context of the mesoscale eddy field.

McGillicuddy, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

A new diagnostic tool is developed for examining relationships between the synoptic scale circulation and regional temperature distributions in GCMs. The 4 x 5 deg GISS GCM is shown to produce accurate simulations of the variance in the synoptic scale sea level pressure distribution over the U.S. An analysis of the observational data set from the National Meteorological Center (NMC) also shows a strong relationship between the synoptic circulation and grid point temperatures. This relationship is demonstrated by deriving transfer functions between a time-series of circulation parameters and temperatures at individual grid points. The circulation parameters are derived using rotated principal components analysis, and the temperature transfer functions are based on multivariate polynomial regression models. The application of these transfer functions to the GCM circulation indicates that there is considerable spatial bias present in the GCM temperature distributions. The transfer functions are also used to indicate the possible changes in U.S. regional temperatures that could result from differences in synoptic scale circulation between a 1XCO2 and a 2xCO2 climate, using a doubled CO2 version of the same GISS GCM.

Crane, Robert G.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Identification of multivariable high performance turbofan engine dynamics from closed loop data

The multivariable instrumental variable/approximate maximum likelihood (IV/AML) method or recursive time-series analysis is used to identify the multivariable (four inputs-three outputs) dynamics of the Pratt and Whitney F100 engine. A detailed nonlinear engine simulation is used to determine linear engine model structures and parameters at an operating point using open loop data. Also, the IV/AML method is used in a direct identification mode to identify models from actual closed loop engine test data. Models identified from simulated and test data are compared to determine a final model structure and parameterization that can predict engine response for a wide class of inputs. The ability of the IV/AML algorithm to identify useful dynamic models from engine test data is assessed.

Merrill, W.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Identification of multivariable high performance turbofan engine dynamics from closed loop data

The multivariable instrumental variable/approximate maximum likelihood (IV/AML) method of recursive time-series analysis is used to identify the multivariable (four inputs-three outputs) dynamics of the Pratt and Whitney F100 engine. A detailed nonlinear engine simulation is used to determine linear engine model structures and parameters at an operating point using open loop data. Also, the IV/AML method is used in a direct identification made to identify models from actual closed loop engine test data. Models identified from simulated and test data are compared to determine a final model structure and parameterization that can predict engine response for a wide class of inputs. The ability of the IV/AML algorithm to identify useful dynamic models from engine test data is assessed. Previously announced in STAR as N82-20339

Merrill, W.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Variable Stars in the Unusual, Metal-Rich Globular Cluster NGC-6441

We have undertaken a search for variable stars in the metal-rich globular cluster NGC 6441 using time-series BV photometry. The total number of variables found near NGC 6441 has been increased to approx. 104, with 48 new variables being found in this survey. A significant number of the variables are RR Lyrae stars (approx. 46), most of which are probable cluster members. As was noted by Layden et al. (1999), the periods of the fundamental mode RR Lyrae are unusually long compared to field stars of similar metallicity. The existence of these long period RRab stars is consistent with Sweigart & Catelan's (1998) prediction that the horizontal branch of NGC 6441 is unusually bright. This result implies that the metallicity-luminosity relationship for RR Lyrae stars is not universal. We discuss the difficulty in determining the Oosterhoff classification of NGC 6441 due to the unusual nature of its RR Lyrae. A number of ab-type RR Lyrae are found to be both brighter and redder than the other probable RRab found along the horizontal branch, which may be a result of blending with stars of redder color. A smaller than usual gap is found between the shortest period fundamental mode and the longest period first-overtone mode RR Lyrae. We determine the reddening of the cluster to be E(B - V) = 0.51 +/- 0.02 mag, with substantial differential reddening across the face of the cluster. The mean V magnitude of the RR Lyrae is found to be 17.51 +/- 0.02 resulting in a distance of 10.4 to 11.9 kpc, for a range of assumed values of < M(sub V)> for RR Lyrae stars. The possibility that stars in NGC 6441 may span a range in [Fe/H] is also discussed.

Pritzl, Barton J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Determination of Interannual to Decadal Changes in Ice Sheet Mass Balance from Satellite Altimetry

A major uncertainty in predicting sea level rise is the sensitivity of ice sheet mass balance to climate change, as well as the uncertainty in present mass balance. Since the annual water exchange is about 8 mm of global sea level equivalent, the +/- 25% uncertainty in current mass balance corresponds to +/- 2 mm/yr in sea level change. Furthermore, estimates of the sensitivity of the mass balance to temperature change range from perhaps as much as - 10% to + 10% per K. Although the overall ice mass balance and seasonal and inter-annual variations can be derived from time-series of ice surface elevations from satellite altimetry, satellite radar altimeters have been limited in spatial coverage and elevation accuracy. Nevertheless, new data analysis shows mixed patterns of ice elevation increases and decreases that are significant in terms of regional-scale mass balances. In addition, observed seasonal and interannual variations in elevation demonstrate the potential for relating the variability in mass balance to changes in precipitation, temperature, and melting. From 2001, NASA's ICESat laser altimeter mission will provide significantly better elevation accuracy and spatial coverage to 86 deg latitude and to the margins of the ice sheets. During 3 to 5 years of ICESat-1 operation, an estimate of the overall ice sheet mass balance and sea level contribution will be obtained. The importance of continued ice monitoring after the first ICESat is illustrated by the variability in the area of Greenland surface melt observed over 17-years and its correlation with temperature. In addition, measurement of ice sheet changes, along with measurements of sea level change by a series of ocean altimeters, should enable direct detection of ice level and global sea level correlations.

Zwally, H. Jay↗
NASA NTRS1992

Primary production estimates from recordings of solar-stimulated fluorescence in the equatorial Pacific at 150 deg W

Biological, optical, and hydrographical data were collected on the WEC88 cruise along 150 deg W and during a 6-day time-series station on the equator during February/March 1988. This area was characterized by a subsurface chlorophyll maximum (SCM), located at 50-70 m depth at the equator and descending down to 120-125 m at the north and south end of the transect. Highest primary production rates were near-surface and confined to the equatorial region and stations between 7 deg and 11 deg N. To determine the relationship between solar-stimulated fluorescence (centered at 683 nm wavelength) and primary production, a production-fluorescence model based on phytoplankton physiology and marine optics is described. Results of model calculations predict that there is a linear relation between production and fluorescence. A comparison between morning and midday measurements of the production-fluorescence relation showed that there was some difference between the two, whereas evening measurements, on the other hand, were distinctly different from the morning/midday ones. This seems to suggest that diurnal variations contribute significantly to variability in the quantum yield of photochemical processes. The ratio of the quantum yield of photosynthesis to the quantum yield of fluorescence ranged between 0.24 and 0.44 molC/Ein for all stations. The highest value for this ratio occurred at the equatorial stations, indicating that latitudinal variability could have an effect on the production-fluorescence relation.

Stegmann, P. M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

"Novel Techniques in Non-Stationary Analysis of Rotorcraft Vibration Signitures"

This research effort produced new methods to analyze the performance of linear predictors that track non-stationary processes. Specifically, prediction methods have been applied to the vibration pattern of rotorcraft drivetrains. This analysis is part or a larger rotorcraft Health and Usage Monitoring System (HUMS) that can diagnose immediate failures of the subsystems, as indicated by abrupt change in the vibration signature, and prognosticate future health, by examining the vibration patterns against long-term trends. This problem is described by a earlier joint paper co-authored by members of the funding agency and the recipient institutions prior to this grant effort. Specific accomplishments under this grant include the following: (1) Definition of a framework for analysis of non-stationary time-series estimation using the coefficients of an adaptive filter. (2) Description of a novel method of combining short-term predictor error and long-term regression error to analyze the performance of a non-stationary predictor. (3) Formulation of a multi-variate probability density function that quantifies the performance of a adaptive predictor by using the short- and long-term error variables in a Gamma function distribution. and (4) Validation of the mathematical formulations with empirical data from NASA flight tests and simulated data to illustrate the utility beyond the domain of vibrating machinery.

Meng, Teresa↗
NASA NTRS2000

Satellite-Derived Dynamics of Southern Ocean Sea Ice

Antarctic ERS-2, RADARSAT Synthetic Aperture Radar and ERS-1/2 Scatterometer images were analyzed with SMMI radiometer image time-series data to investigate seasonal variability in satellite-tracked sea-ice dynamics in the Southern Ocean during 1992. Supporting field data were acquired during 'in-situ' experiments including the winter 1992 Ice Station Weddell and Winter Weddell Gyre studies. A variety of surface measurements were made during these experiments including Argos-buoy deployment and GPS drift measurements. These are used in conjunction with International Program for Antarctic Buoys drift trajectories for ice-motion tracking validation. Comparisons between gridded Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) ice-motion vectors and European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (ECMWF/NCEP) analyses indicate that large-scale drift is forced predominantly by the long-term mean, large-scale synoptic pressure field. Only sub-daily SAR sea-ice tracking can capture high-frequency fluctuations, driven by polar lows or tidal forcing. In these cases, sea-ice drift can respond rapidly to changes in forcing on semi-diurnal time scales depending on the location with respect to the coastline. Seasonality of ice drift, particularly in the Weddell and Ross Seas, is linked to ice extent and compactness, and internal ice stresses transmitted through the pack ice from the coast. Three-monthly seasonal climatologies are presented of austral winter of ice drift in the Southern Ocean. The large Weddell and Ross Sea gyres are clearly resolved along with key seasonal and spatial attributes of their cyclonic circulation. Regional time series of ice dynamics parameters are used to illustrate correlations with meteorological forcing. Persistent divergence such as that occurring in the Ronne-Filchner polynya system results in large fractions of new ice. Similarly, convergence zones produce large fractions of deformed ice and characterize the dynamics of regions where perennial ice is observed. High shear strains also help delineate the axis of the Antarctic divergence in many places in the ice cover. In these regions, the separation between the coastal 'east wind drift'and ACC-dominated drift regimes is characterized by zonally extended regions of intense shear.

Drinkwater, Mark R.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Turbulence measurements in a swirling confined jet flowfield using a triple hot-wire probe

An axisymmetric swirling confined jet flowfield, similar to that encountered in gas turbine combustors was investigated using a triple hot-wire probe. The raw data from the three sensors were digitized using ADC's and stored on a Tektronix 4051 computer. The data were further reduced on the computer to obtain time-series for the three instantaneous velocity components in the flowfield. The time-mean velocities and the turbulence quantities were deduced. Qualification experiments were performed and where possible results compared with independent measurements. The major qualification experiments involved measurements performed in a non-swirling flow compared with conventional X-wire measurements. In the swirling flowfield, advantages of the triple wire technique over the previously used multi-position single hot-wire method are noted. The measurements obtained provide a data base with which the predictions of turbulence models in a recirculating swirling flowfield can be evaluated.

Janjua, S. I.↗