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At least 19 records

Energy Budget Constraints on the Time History of Aerosol Forcing and Climate Sensitivity

Abstract An observationally constrained time series of historical aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) from 1750 to 2019 is developed in this study. We find that the time history of aerosol ERFs diagnosed in CMIP6 models exhibits considerable variation and explore how the time history of aerosol forcing influences the probability distributions of present‐day aerosol forcing and emergent metrics such as climate sensitivity. Using a simple energy balance model, trained on CMIP6 climate models and constrained by observed near‐surface warming and ocean heat uptake, we derive estimates for the historical aerosol forcing. We find 2005–2014 mean aerosol ERF to be −1.1 (−1.8 to −0.5) W m −2 relative to 1750. Assuming recently published historical emissions from fossil fuel and industrial sectors and biomass burning emissions from SSP2‐4.5, aerosol ERF in 2019 is −0.9 (−1.5 to −0.4) W m −2 . There is a modest recovery in aerosol forcing (+0.025 W m −2 decade −1 ) between 1980 and 2014. This analysis also gives a 5%–95% range of equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.8°C –5.1°C (best estimate 3.1°C) with a transient climate response of 1.2°C –2.6°C (best estimate 1.8°C).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ex situ calibration of the scattered-light time-history diagnostic on the National Ignition Facility

The scattered-light time-history diagnostic (SLTD) suite measures time-resolved scattered light in three wavelength bands: stimulated Brillouin scattering (350–352 nm), stimulated Raman scattering (430–760 nm), and plasma emission at half the laser frequency (695–735 nm), at 15 locations around the National Ignition Facility (NIF) target chamber. The SLTD, along with the full-aperture backscatter station (FABS), collects scattered light from direct- and indirect-drive inertial confinement fusion experiments. The SLTD calibration was revisited after a discrepancy between FABS and SLTD measurements was observed on NIF polar direct-drive experiments. An integrated calibration of the SLTD was performed for the first time, and individual components were also calibrated for the wavelengths of 351, 527, and 532 nm. The optical transmission of the instrument was measured to be (1.12 ± 0.04) × 10 –7 and (1.96 ± 0.11) × 10 –7 for the wavelengths of 351 and 532 nm, respectively. The revised calibration at 351 nm brings the SLTD measured scattered energy in agreement with the FABS measured scattered energy after additionally accounting for the degradation of an optical element in FABS. Furthermore, this decreased the inferred absorption by 7% for a representative experiment. However, discrepancies remain between FABS and SLTD measurements in the SRS band (532 nm).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Shock tube and laser absorption study of CO time-histories during combustion of branched alkenes

Combustion experiments of the three isomers of methyl butene compound - 2-methyl-1-butene (2M1B), 2-methyl-2-butene (2M2B), and 3-methyl-1-butene (3M1B), have been carried out in a shock tube using laser absorption technique. Carbon monoxide (CO) time-histories are obtained behind reflected shockwaves over the temperature range of 1350–1630 K near 9.3 atm with stoichiometric mixtures of 0.075% fuel in O2/Ar. Comparative study of CO time-histories reveals different rates of CO formation indicating different ignition delay time of the methyl butene isomers.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

The Scattered Light Time-history Diagnostic suite at the National Ignition Facility

The Scattered Light Time-history Diagnostic (SLTD) is being implemented at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) to greatly expand the angular coverage of absolute scattered-light measurements for direct- and indirect-drive inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments. The SLTD array will ultimately consist of 15 units mounted at a variety of polar and azimuthal angles on the NIF target chamber, complementing the existing NIF backscatter suite. Each SLTD unit collects and diffuses scattered light onto a set of three optical fibers, which transport the light to filtered photodiodes to measure scattered light in different wavelength bands: stimulated Brillouin scattering (350 nm–352 nm), stimulated Raman scattering (430 nm–760 nm), and ω/2 (695 nm–745 nm). SLTD measures scattered light with a time resolution of ~1 ns and a signal-to-noise ratio of up to 500. Currently, six units are operational and recording data. Measurements of the angular dependence of scattered light will strongly constrain models of laser energy coupling in ICF experiments and allow for a more robust inference of the total laser energy coupled to implosions.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Identifying Suspect Instrument Intervals Using Midnight Noise Time Histories

With an intense work ethic, and high levels of devotion to their craft, seismologists continue to battle the elements and wrestle with complex logistics in their efforts to field instrumentation over the entire globe. We are fortunate to see data volumes accelerating in size, and quality continuing to improve; for example, universal timing issues can now be considered rare. However, instrument response issues are still common, and can hinder research that seeks to understand amplitudes of seismic wavefields. We are interested in using the accumulations of seismic data to develop models that will predict high frequency (0.2-20 Hz, and higher) signal amplitudes for explosion monitoring purposes over broad areas, which requires large data sets and extensive quality control. To identify response and station health issues, we have collected noise time histories for global seismic data, focusing on measurements near (but not restricted to) midnight to eliminate diurnal variations, and have manually determined time intervals that appear inconsistent with background behavior. We assign descriptive labels, but do not attempt to diagnose causes. We use these intervals to discard data. To date, we have examined 39,260 channels from 11,105 stations, heavily weighted toward IRIS holdings, dates through 2017 (depending on station, roughly the date we started our manual review), bands between 1 and 8 Hz, finding 24,733 anomalous time intervals. The great majority (90%) of these intervals appear to be shifts of constant offset, often bounded by times of known instrument changes, likely the result of poor documentation of response parameters at one of many stages between the field and the plotter. We hope these results can be of use to our colleagues, and would encourage community efforts to diagnose anomalous behavior, and fix poor responses. We also hope these results will support automation efforts, including application of supervised learning techniques.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Isopropanol dehydration reaction rate kinetics measurement using H 2 O time histories

H 2 O formation during thermal decomposition of isopropanol was measured behind reflected shock waves at temperatures ranging from 1127 to 1621 K at an average pressure of 1.42 atm using a laser absorption technique. Of the five modern chemical kinetics models used to compare the H 2 O time histories, the model from Li et al (Combust. Flame 2019;207:171-185) showed the best overall agreement. Sensitivity and rate of production analyses using the Li et al model (as well as those from AramcoMech 3.0, CRECK, and Togbe et al (Energy Fuel. 2011;25:676-683)) showed unimolecular dehydration of isopropanol, iC 3 H 7 OH ⇌ H 2 O + C 3 H 6 (R1), is nearly the sole reaction controlling H2O production at early times, allowing for an a priori measurement of the forward rate constant k 1 . The Arrhenius expression k1 (s –1 ) = 2.60 × 10 13 exp(-31 120 K/T) was determined to represent best the data from this study. According to the models and previous experimental investigations, the pressure investigated is well within the high-pressure limit (HPL) for this reaction. Additional, higher-pressure experiments also confirmed the HPL assumption. An uncertainty analysis was performed by varying secondary reactions within their uncertainties and examining their effect on the overall prediction, establishing an uncertainty within ±20% for all but the highest temperature cases, which have a maximum uncertainty of ±40%. Experiments conducted with a radical trapper, toluene, showed little influence from radical chemistry, suggesting this estimated uncertainty is fairly conservative. Experimental data from Heyne et al (Z Phys Chem. 2015;229:881-907) were found to be in good agreement with the rate measurements from this study and, therefore, a second Arrhenius expression, k 1 (s –1 ) = 2.11 × 10 13 exp(-30 820 K/T), was found to represent both datasets well. This second expression has a larger temperature range of 976-1621 K. Here the present study provides the first high-temperature data collected for this reaction, adding to the limited data available for isopropanol in the literature.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Ignition delay time and CO time-history measurements in a shock tube during high performance jet fuel surrogate combustion

The chemical kinetics of diisobutylene, a proposed biofuel, has been studied behind reflected shock waves near 10 atm over a temperature range of 1186 – 1414 K. A stoichiometric mixture consisting of 0.15% diisobutylene was used to investigate ignition behavior and speciation during oxidation experiments performed in a shock tube. Time resolved measurements of carbon monoxide were measured behind reflected shock waves with a continuous wave quantum cascade laser centered at a frequency of 2046.20 cm^-1 using a fixed-wavelength spectroscopy scheme.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Experimental and modeling study of water time histories during H 2 S-N 2 O combustion in a shock tube

Here, with the interest in directly burning sour gas in gas turbines, and the fact that even small amounts of H 2 S or its combustion products can alter combustion characteristics, many research studies have been performed to better understand the combustion chemistry of H 2 S. In the present study, the water formation was followed by laser absorption with N 2 O as an oxidant, instead of O 2 . Nitrous Oxide being essentially consumed via N 2 O (+M) ⇌ N 2 + O (+M), the water formation via the H 2 S + O route can then be probed to further validate the models. Three H 2 S/N 2 O mixtures diluted in 98% Ar were studied to cover the following range of equivalence ratios: 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0, over a wide range of temperatures (1580–1940 K) around atmospheric pressure. A chemical kinetic model was then developed first by validating the base N 2 O kinetics mechanism, then by investigating the experimental results presented herein. The N 2 O kinetics mechanism was updated with recent work on the low- and high-pressure limits for N 2 O decomposition (N 2 O (+M) ⇌ N 2 + O (+M)) as well as a review of rate coefficients for N 2 O + H ⇌ N 2 + OH from the literature. Good agreement is shown for H 2 /N 2 O mixtures. Updates were then made to the H 2 S kinetics mechanism, specifically, an update from the literature on SO 2 + H (+M) ⇌ SO + OH (+M) and an adjustment to SO + SH ⇌ S 2 + OH. Additionally, reactions between SH and N 2 O were determined using W1BD data and transition state theory which required the addition of an NNS sub-mechanism. With these updates, the mechanism provides good agreement with the H 2 S/N 2 O experiments.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NSTXU Diagnostic Disruption Dynamic Loading Represented by Response Spectra

This article presents the results of transient dynamic simulations of loads due to disruption eddy currents on the NSTXU vacuum vessel. Dynamic loading at diagnostic mounting locations is expressed as response spectra derived from the time history results of the dynamic structural simulations of a variety of disruption scenarios. The disruption simulations draw on a history of the project assessments of worst case disruptions for specific components. Major efforts to assess disruption loading have included the vacuum vessel which is the major structural support for the machine, as well as the passive plates (PPs), high harmonic fast wave (HHFW) antenna, and centerstack casing. Each one of these efforts included transient electromagnetic simulations producing time-dependent eddy current Lorentz loads (and in some cases halo loads) which then were applied to time-dependent structural dynamic analyses intended to obtain the proper dynamic amplification factors. In some instances, the EM model and structural model were identical allowing direct transfer of EM forces to the structural model. In other cases, the EM and structural model were not identical and the vector potential (VP) transfer method was used. The results files from these analyses were available (or re-run) to post process in ANSYS Classic time history postprocessor. In conclusion, the ANSYS command is used to create response spectra from time history data at desired points on the vessel.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Measurement and Modeling of Electron Temperature in Laboratory Photoionized Plasmas Relevant to Astrophysics

The electron temperature of photoionized plasmas characterizes the thermalization of photoelectrons, impacts the charge-state distribution, emissivity, and opacity through atomic recombination processes, and is needed to perform detailed comparisons with theory predictions. We discuss temperature measurements in laboratory photoionized plasmas and a comparison with model calculations done with several theory approximations and codes. These include a radiation-hydrodynamics simulation and two nonequilibrium heating and ionization models that tracked the evolution of the internal energy of the electrons. Furthermore, for the same physics model and X-ray flux time history, calculations were performed assuming steady-state or time-dependent conditions. The time history of steady-state results correlates with that of the X-ray flux, while that of the time-dependent cases does not, and it is qualitatively and quantitatively different from the steady-state case. Steady-state results significantly overestimated temperature measurements, while time-dependent results produced better approximations, which suggests the importance of transient effects in the experiment and also the need for time-resolved measurements.

Laboratory astrophysics↗

Time-resolved measurements of OH during auto-ignition of syngas with trimethylsilanol and hexamethyldisiloxane

The effects of trimethylsilanol (TMSO) and hexamethyldisiloxane (HMDSO) addition on OH time histories during syngas (H 2 and CO) ignition were investigated using the University of Michigan rapid compression facility. Experiments spanned temperatures of 1010–1080 K, at a pressure of approximately 5 atm. Syngas mixtures of 1.2 % H 2 /2.8 % CO/20 % O 2 by volume (balance N 2 and Ar) provided a baseline for comparison with mixtures that included 100, 200, and 1000 ppm of the TMSO and 100 ppm of HMDSO. Narrow-line ultraviolet laser-absorption was used to measure OH mole-fraction during ignition. The addition of TMSO and HMDSO significantly shifted the OH time-histories earlier in time, by up to 51 %, compared with the baseline syngas mixture. The value of the maximum OH mole fraction was consistent between the 100 and 200 ppm TMSO mixtures and the 100 ppm HMDSO mixtures, but the maximum OH increased significantly with the 1000 ppm TMSO mixtures. Here, the OH data indicate TMSO and HMDSO were not direct sources of OH radicals. Analysis further indicates the TMSO and HMDSO decompose rapidly followed by reactions that enhance the production of H atoms, and the increased reactivity observed is via the H + O 2 = OH + O reaction.

Hexamethyldisiloxane↗

A machine-learning inverse model framework for rapid forecasting and history matching in unconventional reservoirs

Model-based optimization for real-time forecasting in unconventional reser-voirs requires novel methods and work?ows since the strategies and work?ows used in conventional reservoirs are either inapplicable, or prohibitively expen-sive and time-consuming. Insu?cient site data and computational expense of high-?delity simulations mean that work?ows with high-?delity simulations are not ideal for usage in comprehensive uncertainty quanti?cation stud-ies that require 1000s of forward model runs. We present an alternative, novel work?ow for unconventional reservoirs, based on the interplay between reduced-order models and machine-learning. Our physics-informed machine-learning (PIML) work?ow addresses the challenges to real-time reservoir management in uncoventionals, namely lack of data (the time-frame for which the wells have been producing), and computational expense of high-?delity modeling. We use the machine-learning paradigm of transfer-learning to bind together fast but less accurate reduced-order models with slow, but accurate high-?delity models and circumvent the di?culties inherent in the current state-of-the-art for unconventionals. Such a PIML work?ow, grounded in physics, is a viable candidate for real-time history matching and production forecasting in a fractured shale gas reservoir. The signi?cance of our approach is that while it is developed for a particu-lar well and site in the Marcelus Shale gas reservoir of the Appalachian basin (MSEEL), it is not wedded to it. We expect the same work?ow can be ap-plied to other shale formations (e.g., Woodford, Barnett, Utica, EagleFord) should site-data become available, using the same set of machine-learning techniques from transfer learning. Some ?ne-tuning (or minimal retraining of the neural networks) will be required to transfer knowledge across shale gas sites/formations but it is a clearly superior alternative to developing a new machine-learning model altogether when considering a di?erent site.

Srinivasan, Shriram↗

Data reduction considerations for the burning velocity of spherical constant volume flames of R32 (CH 2 F 2 ) with air

Here, the present work explores data reduction techniques for the measurement of the laminar burning velocities of R32(CH 2 F 2 )-air mixtures using a constant volume combustion device, in which the pressure-time history is the only measured parameter. To allow clear assessment of the accuracy of the data reduction methods, the pressure-time histories used for analysis are synthetically generated via a detailed numerical simulation employing full kinetics and with and without an optically-thin radiation model. Various data reduction models are employed, including a two-zone model and two multi-zone models, and these are compared with the results from the burning velocity obtained from the output of the numerical simulation. The data reduction schemes are shown to be accurate if the same radiation model is employed in the data reduction as was used in the flame simulation to generate the pressure trace used for post-processing. If the incorrect radiation model is employed, however, the errors can be quite large. The effects of stretch, radiation, and different data post-processing methodologies are explored and the errors quantified. Stretch is shown to be important for the early stages and the selected data range that is used for extrapolation has a significant effect on the extrapolated burning velocity. However, with an appropriate choice of data considered for extrapolation, the prediction of the unstretched burning velocity can be quite accurate.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Plasma-assisted deflagration to detonation transition in a microchannel with fast-frame imaging and hybrid fs/ps coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering measurements

Our study examines kinetic enhancement by nanosecond dielectric barrier discharge (ns-DBD) plasma on fuellean dimethyl ether (DME), oxygen (O 2 ), and argon (Ar) premixtures during deflagration to detonation transition (DDT) experiments in a microchannel. Non-equilibrium plasma produces active species and radicals and creates fast and slow heating of a mixture to promote ignition due to electronic and vibrational excitation. Experiments have been conducted to examine the influence of the plasma discharge on the premixture and on the resultant deflagration to detonation transition (DDT) onset time and distance through the use of high speed imaging and one-dimensional, two-beam, femtosecond/picosecond, coherent anti-Stokes Raman scattering (CARS). A highspeed camera is used to trace the time histories of flame front position and velocity and to identify the dynamics and onset of DDT. The results show that plasma discharge can nonlinearly affect the onset time and distance of DDT. It is shown that a small number of plasma discharge pulses prior to ignition result in reduced DDT onset time and distance by 60% and 40%, respectively, when compared to the results without pre-excitation by ns discharges. The results also show that an increase of plasma discharge pulses results in an extended DDT onset time and distance of 224% and 94%, respectively. Time history of the deflagration wave speed of DME and the analysis of ignition timescale under the choking condition of the deflagration front suggest low temperature ignition may play a role for DME near the isobaric choking condition of the burned gas and the DDT. Plasmainduced conversion of the reactive mixture was assessed via the O 2 to CO 2 ratio as measured through fs/ps CARS during the DBD discharges. The present experiments demonstrate the ability of non-equilibrium plasma to alter the chemistry of DME/O 2 /Ar premixtures in order to control DDT for applications in advanced propulsion engines.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Boundary, SOL, and Divertor Physics Studies on TCV (Final Report for Research Funded by DoE Award DE-SC0020327)

Research supported under this grant was organized around two diagnostic systems installed on the TCV tokamak located at EPFL in Lausanne, Switzerland: Multi-Spectral Imaging (MSI) and Gas-Puff Imaging (GPI). MSI monitors 2-d time-history images of up to 10 spectral lines, in the visible, using identical views for all wavelengths. The primary application of MSI is to infer 2-d time histories of electron temperature and density in the Scrape-Off-Layer (SOL) of diverted plasmas, utilizing ratios of emission from multiple neutral helium lines. The atomic models are validated against 1-d Thomson scattering measurements. SOL density and temperature maps are analyzed to infer divertor dynamics, including particle and power flows, for a variety of divertor configurations, and specifically as flux expansion along the long-legged outboard divertor is systematically varied. GPI is used to measure details of edge fluctuations in the SOL, particularly as a function of plasma triangularity (δ), including both positive and negative δ. A threshold is found, whereby for δ<-0.3, edge turbulence in the far SOL is completely suppressed. Dynamics of the filamentary turbulence was also analyzed using advance machine learning techniques. Research in support of four PhD theses was carried out within the scope of this Award, including 2 at MIT and 2 at EPFL.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗