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Tidal Prediction

Tides are the most predictable of oceanographic phenomena, due both to the simplicity and predictability of the astronomical forcing and to the near linearity of the ocean's dynamical response. In the classical and simplest scenario, tidal prediction is based on harmonic analysis of past measurements at a fixed location. Limits to predictability arise because isolated astronomical spectral lines are broadened into "cusps" of incoherent energy, for example through interactions with non-tidal flows. Tidal prediction at locations without past measurements has historically been a major challenge, but, owing to near-global observations of modern satellite altimeters, the empirical harmonic approach now yields reasonably accurate predictions throughout most of the open ocean. Advances in numerical modeling and data assimilation allow these predictions to be refined (especially in shallow seas where observations remain insufficient to directly constrain tidal wave structure) and extended to include tidal currents. We review recent progress in the development of global and regional-scale tidal prediction capabilities, summarize accuracy of available charts, and briefly consider outstanding issues. Satellite altimetry has also helped unravel the global tidal energy budget and has clarified the role of internal tides as a sink of tidal energy. We summarize these results, and then turn to the challenging problem of predicting internal tides. To the extent that low modes remain coherent with the surface tide, elevations can be directly mapped. We review current efforts in this direction, which are already producing charts with predictive capability. However, internal tides (especially higher modes) interact much more strongly with lower-frequency ocean flows, so a significant fraction of this tidal signal is intermittent and incoherent. We close with a brief review of ongoing efforts to model global tides in combination with wind-forced ocean motions.

Harmonic Constants

Barotropic Tidal Predictions and Validation in a Relocatable Modeling Environment

Under funding from the Office of Naval Research (ONR), the Mississippi State University Center for Air Sea Technology (CAST) has been working on developing a Relocatable Modeling Environment (RME) to provide a uniform and unbiased infrastructure for efficiently configuring numerical models in any geographic or oceanic region. Under Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO) funding, the model was implemented and tested for NAVOCEANO use. With our current emphasis on ocean tidal modeling, CAST has adopted the Colorado University's numerical ocean model, known as CURReNTSS (Colorado University Rapidly Relocatable Nestable Storm Surge) Model, as the model of choice. During the RME development process, CURReNTSS has been relocated to several coastal oceanic regions, providing excellent results that demonstrate its veracity. This report documents the model validation results and provides a brief description of the Graphic user Interface.

Mehra, Avichal

Barotropic Tidal Predictions and Validation in a Relocatable Modeling Environment

Under funding from the Office of Naval Research (ONR), and the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO), the Mississippi State University Center for Air Sea Technology (CAST) has been working on developing a Relocatable Modeling Environment(RME) to provide a uniform and unbiased infrastructure for efficiently configuring numerical models in any geographic/oceanic region. Under Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVO-CEANO) funding, the model was implemented and tested for NAVOCEANO use. With our current emphasis on ocean tidal modeling, CAST has adopted the Colorado University's numerical ocean model, known as CURReNTSS (Colorado University Rapidly Relocatable Nestable Storm Surge) Model, as the model of choice. During the RME development process, CURReNTSS has been relocated to several coastal oceanic regions, providing excellent results that demonstrate its veracity. This report documents the model validation results and provides a brief description of the Graphic user Interface (GUI).

Mehra, Avichal

The IERS Special Bureau for Tides

The Global Geophysical Fluids Center of the International Earth Rotation Service (IERS) comprises 8 special bureaus, one of which is the Special Bureau for Tides. Its purpose is to facilitate studies related to tidal effects in earth rotation. To that end it collects various relevant datasets and distributes them, primarily through its website at bowie.gsfc.nasa.gov/ggfc/tides. Example datasets include tabulations of tidal variations in angular momentum and in earth rotation as estimated from numerical ocean tide models and from meteorological reanalysis products. The web site also features an interactive tidal prediction "machine" which generates tidal predictions (e.g., of UT1) from lists of harmonic constants. The Special Bureau relies on the tidal and earth-rotation communities to build and enlarge its datasets; further contributions from this community are most welcome.

Ray, Richard D.

The Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document for Tidal Corrections

This Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document deals with the tidal corrections that need to be applied to range measurements made by the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS). These corrections result from the action of ocean tides and Earth tides which lead to deviations from an equilibrium surface. Since the effect of tides is dependent of the time of measurement, it is necessary to remove the instantaneous tide components when processing altimeter data, so that all measurements are made to the equilibrium surface. The three main tide components to consider are the ocean tide, the solid-earth tide and the ocean loading tide. There are also long period ocean tides and the pole tide. The approximate magnitudes of these components are illustrated in Table 1, together with estimates of their uncertainties (i.e. the residual error after correction). All of these components are important for GLAS measurements over the ice sheets since centimeter-level accuracy for surface elevation change detection is required. The effect of each tidal component is to be removed by approximating their magnitude using tidal prediction models. Conversely, assimilation of GLAS measurements into tidal models will help to improve them, especially at high latitudes.

Fricker, Helen A.

Modulation of Gravity Waves by Tides as Seen in CRISTA Temperatures

During shuttle missions STS-66 (November, 1994) and STS-85 (August, 1997) the Cryogenic Infrared Spectrometers and Telescopes for the Atmosphere (CRISTA) acquired temperature data with very high spatial resolution. These are analyzed for gravity waves (GW). The altitude range spans the whole middle atmosphere from the tropopause up to the mesopause. In the upper mesosphere tidal amplitudes exceed values of 10 K. Modulation of GW activity by the tides is observed and analyzed using CRISTA temperatures and tidal predictions of the Global Scale Wave Model (GSWM). The modulation process is identified as a tidally-induced change of the background buoyancy frequency. The findings agree well with the expectations for saturated GW and are the first global scale observations of this process.

SHUTTLE MISSIONS

Tides and Decadal Variability

This paper reviews the mechanisms by which oceanic tides and decadal variability in the oceans are connected. We distinguish between variability caused by tides and variability observed in the tides themselves. Both effects have been detected at some level. The most obvious connection with decadal timescales is through the 18.6-year precession of the moon's orbit plane. This precession gives rise to a small tide of the same period and to 18.6-year modulations in the phase and amplitudes of short-period tides. The 18.6-year "node tide" is very small, no more than 2 cm anywhere, and in sea level data it is dominated by the ocean's natural Variability. Some authors have naively attributed climate variations with periods near 19 years directly to the node tide, but the amplitude of the tide is too small for this mechanism to be operative. The more likely explanation (Loder and Garrett, JGR, 83, 1967-70, 1978) is that the 18.6-y modulations in short-period tides, especially h e principal tide M2, cause variations in ocean mixing, which is then observed in temperature and other climatic indicators. Tidally forced variability has also been proposed by some authors, either in response to occasional (and highly predictable) tidal extremes or as a nonlinear low-frequency oscillation caused by interactions between short-period tides. The former mechanism can produce only short-duration events hardly more significant than normal tidal ranges, but the latter mechanism can in principle induce low-frequency oscillations. The most recent proposal of this type is by Keeling and Whorf, who highlight the 1800-year spectral peak discovered by Bond et al. (1997). But the proposal appears contrived and should be considered, in the words of Munk et al. (2002), "as the most likely among unlikely candidates."

Ray, Richard D.

Vertical motions in the equatorial middle atmosphere

A single station vertical velocity equation which considers ageostrophic and diabatic effects derived from the first law of thermodynamics and a generalized thermal wind relation is presented. An analysis and verification procedure which accounts for measurement and calculation errors as well as time and space continuity arguments and theoretical predictions are described. Vertical velocities are calculated at every kilometer between 25 and 60 km and for approximately every three hours for the above diurnal period at Kourou (French Guiana), Fort Sherman (Panama Canal Zone), Ascension Island, Antigua (British West Indies) and Natal (Brazil). The results, plotted as time series cross sections, suggest vertical motions ranging in magnitude from 1 or 2 cm/sec at 30 km to as much as 15 cm/sec at 60 km. Many of the general features of the results agree well with atmospheric tidal predictions but many particular features suggest that both smaller time scale gravity waves (periods less than 6 hours) and synoptic type waves (periods greater than 1 day) may be interacting significantly with the tidal fields. The results suggest that vertical motions can be calculated for the equatorial middle atmosphere and must be considered a significant part of the motion for time scales from 8 to 24 hours.

Weisman, M. L.

Detection of tides on the Patagonian shelf by the SEASAT satellite radar altimeter - An initial comparison

The detection of tides on the Patagonian shelf off Argentina by the SEASAT satellite radar altimeter is reported. The satellite data was obtained during two passes of the satellite over the shelf on August 1 and August 4, 1978, and compared with empirical estimates of the tidal elevation along the satellite ground tracks based on coastal tide gage data, an estimate of tidal variation over the shelf, and the tidal prediction equations of Shureman (1958). Good agreement was observed between the satellite data of sea surface height with respect to a standard ellipsoid and the empirical estimate for the near-shore pass, with agreement degraded slightly for the pass further off shore. It is concluded that the generally good agreement found demonstrates the applicability of satellite radar altimeter data to the determination of tides and that small length scale fluctuations in the geoid are minor along the two ground tracks.

Parke, M. E.

Solutions Network Formulation Report: Improving NOAA's PORTS(R) Through Enhanced Data Inputs from NASA's Ocean Surface Topography Mission

The Nation uses water-level data for a variety of practical purposes, including nautical charting, maritime navigation, hydrography, coastal engineering, and tsunami and storm surge warnings. Long-term applications include marine boundary determinations, tidal predictions, sea-level trend monitoring, oceanographic research, and climate research. Accurate and timely information concerning sea-level height, tide, and ocean current is needed to understand their impact on coastal management, disaster management, and public health. Satellite altimeter data products are currently used by hundreds of researchers and operational users to monitor ocean circulation and to improve scientists understanding of the role of the oceans in climate and weather. The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) National Ocean Service has been monitoring sea-level variations for many years. NOAA s PORTS (Physical Oceanographic Real-Time System) DST (decision support tool), managed by the Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, supports safe and cost-efficient navigation by providing ship masters and pilots with accurate real-time information required to avoid groundings and collisions. This report assesses the capacity of NASA s satellite altimeter data to meet societal decision support needs through incorporation into NOAA s PORTS. NASA has a long heritage of collecting data for ocean research, including its current Terra and Aqua missions. Numerous other missions provide additional important information for coastal management issues, and data collection will continue in the coming decade with such missions as the OSTM (Ocean Surface Topography Mission). OSTM will provide data on sea-surface heights for determining ocean circulation, climate change, and sea-level rise. We suggest that NASA incorporate OSTM altimeter data (C- and Ku-band) into NOAA s PORTS DST in support of NASA s Coastal Management National Application with secondary support to the Disaster Management and Public Health National Applications.

Guest, DeNeice

Solutions Network Formulation Report. Improving NOAA's Tides and Currents Through Enhanced Data Inputs from NASA's Ocean Surface Topography Mission

The Nation uses water-level data for a variety of practical purposes, including hydrography, nautical charting, maritime navigation, coastal engineering, and tsunami and storm surge warnings (NOAA, 2002; Digby et al., 1999). Long-term applications include marine boundary determinations, tidal predictions, sea-level trend monitoring, oceanographic research, and climate research. Accurate and timely information concerning sea-level height, tide, and ocean current is needed to understand their impact on coastal management, disaster management, and public health. Satellite altimeter data products are currently used by hundreds of researchers and operational users to monitor ocean circulation and to improve scientists understanding of the role of the oceans in climate and weather. The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) National Ocean Service has been monitoring sea-level variations for many years (NOAA, 2006). NOAA s Tides & Currents DST (decision support tool, managed by the Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services, is the portal to a vast collection of oceanographic and meteorological data (historical and real-time), predictions, and nowcasts and forecasts. This report assesses the capacity of NASA s satellite altimeter data to meet societal decision support needs through incorporation into NOAA s Tides & Currents.

Guest, DeNeice C.

Improving NOAA's NWLON Through Enhanced Data Inputs from NASA's Ocean Surface Topography

This report assesses the benefit of incorporating NASA's OSTM (Ocean Surface Topography Mission) altimeter data (C- and Ku-band) into NOAA's (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) NWLON (National Water Level Observation Network) DSS (Decision Support System). This data will enhance the NWLON DSS by providing additional inforrnation because not all stations collect all meteorological parameters (sea-surface height, ocean tides, wave height, and wind speed over waves). OSTM will also provide data where NWLON stations are not present. OSTM will provide data on seasurface heights for determining sea-level rise and ocean circulation. Researchers and operational users currently use satellite altimeter data products with the GSFCOO NASA data model to obtain sea-surface height and ocean circulation inforrnation. Accurate and tirnely inforrnation concerning sea-level height, tide, and ocean currents is needed to irnprove coastal tidal predictions, tsunarni and storm surge warnings, and wetland restoration.

Guest, DeNeice C.

Terdiurnal Radiational Tides

Terdiurnal atmospheric tides induce an S 3 radiational ocean tide, similar to radiational tides S 1 and S 2 in the diurnal and semidiurnal bands. Although of small amplitude, the terdiurnal tide has some intriguing properties. The tide has an unusually pronounced seasonal variation, manifested by annual sidelines here denoted R 3 and T 3 , which causes the tide to nearly vanish during times near an equinox. Forcing is generally largest in the winter hemisphere. Complicating matters, the two sideline frequencies coincide with those of nonlinear compound tides SK 3 and SP 3 . Whether radiational tides or nonlinear tides (or both) are appearing at any given tide gauge can usually be determined by the relative amplitudes and phase differences of the two sidelines. The amplitudes of R 3 and T 3 are generally comparable; the amplitudes of SK 3 and SP 3 are not. Proper identification can lead to a small improvement in tidal prediction, but more importantly can lead to improved physical interpretation. An example from recent measurements under the Ross Ice Shelf bears on the role of nonlinearity in interactions between the ocean tide and the floating ice shelf.

Atmospheric waves

Patterns of fracture and tidal stresses on Europa

A comparison of dark band, triple band, and cuspate ridge orientations with the fracture patterns predicted for tidal distortion due to orbital recession and eccentricity is undertaken, to test the hypothesized identification of Europa's lineaments as tidal distortion and planetary volume change fractures. Short, reticule dark bands near the anti-Jove point could be tension cracks caused by orbital eccentricity. Long, arcuate dark bands and triple bands peripheral to the anti-Jove point may be strike-slip faults due to orbital recession. The orientation and distribution of cuspate ridges, if they are compressional, suggests their formation in response to a combination of orbital recession and planetary volume decrease. If surface fracturing is due to tidal deformation, important constraints are exerted by it on Europa's orbital evolution.

Helfenstein, P.

Compton heated winds and coronae above accretion disks. I Dynamics

X rays emitted in the inner part of an accretion disk system can heat the surface of the disk farther out, producing a corona and possibly driving off a strong wind. The dynamics of Compton-heated coronae and winds are analyzed using an approximate two-dimensional technique to estimate the mass loss rate as a function of distance from the source of X rays. The findings have important dynamical implications for accretion disks in quasars, active galactic nuclei, X ray binaries, and cataclysmic variables. These include: mass loss from the disk possibly comparable with or exceeding the net accretion rate onto the central compact object, which may lead to unstable accretion; sufficient angular momentum loss in some cases to truncate the disk in a semidetached binary at a smaller radius than that predicted by tidal truncation theories; and combined static plus ram pressure in the wind adequate to confine line-emitting clouds in quasars and Seyfert galaxies.

Begelman, M. C.

Apparent Relations Between Solar Activity and Solar Tides Caused by the Planets

A solar storm is a storm of ions and electrons from the Sun. Large solar storms are usually preceded by solar flares, phenomena that can be characterized quantitatively from Earth. Twenty-five of the thirty-eight largest known solar flares were observed to start when one or more tide-producing planets (Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Jupiter) were either nearly above the event positions (less than 10 deg. longitude) or at the opposing side of the Sun. The probability for this to happen at random is 0.039 percent. This supports the hypothesis that the force or momentum balance (between the solar atmospheric pressure, the gravity field, and magnetic field) on plasma in the looping magnetic field lines in solar corona could be disturbed by tides, resulting in magnetic field reconnection, solar flares, and solar storms. Separately, from the daily position data of Venus, Earth, and Jupiter, an 11-year planet alignment cycle is observed to approximately match the sunspot cycle. This observation supports the hypothesis that the resonance and beat between the solar tide cycle and nontidal solar activity cycle influences the sunspot cycle and its varying magnitudes. The above relations between the unpredictable solar flares and the predictable solar tidal effects could be used and further developed to forecast the dangerous space weather and therefore reduce its destructive power against the humans in space and satellites controlling mobile phones and global positioning satellite (GPS) systems.

Hung, Ching-Cheh

The Semiannual and 4.4-Year Modulations of Extreme High Tides

In most places extreme high tides undergo a clear seasonal variation. It is well known that semidiurnal tides tend to peak during equinox seasons, and diurnals during solstice seasons. This is a consequence of the solar and lunar declinations, which when large maximize diurnal tides at the expense of semidiurnals. The semiannual range modulation of tidal extremes for a pure semidiurnal tide is determined mainly by the amplitude of the K2 constituent; a pure diurnal is determined mainly by P1. Mixed tidal regimes tend to experience maxima very roughly around the times of solstice, but not always, with the semiannual modulation generally a complicated function of constituent amplitudes and phases. These modulations are here mapped worldwide by analyzing tidal extremes predicted with a global tide model. The known 4.4-year modulation in extreme tides is a consequence of declinational and perigean effects coming in and out of phase. The phase of the 4.4-year modulation is controlled by the phase of the semiannual modulation, irrespective of whether the tide is diurnal, semidiurnal, or mixed.

Ray, R. D.