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DOE OSTI2025

Multidecadal Fluctuations in the Observed ENSO‐Tropical Cyclone Teleconnection

Abstract El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a skillful predictor for seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity in most TC basins. This study examines recent changes in the observed ENSO‐TC teleconnection strength, as measured by ENSO modulation of hurricane frequency. We find that the ENSO‐North Atlantic TC teleconnection fluctuated over time, with the strongest relationship occurring from the 1980s to the mid‐2000s. In the western and eastern North Pacific, the ENSO‐TC teleconnection has strengthened in recent decades. Periods with a strong ENSO‐TC teleconnection are associated with more favorable environmental conditions for TCs, with higher values of genesis potential indices. Positive phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation coincided with periods of strong ENSO‐TC teleconnections in the Atlantic and North Pacific basins. A weaker Atlantic ENSO‐TC relationship was associated with negative phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. This research reveals climate conditions that modulate ENSO's utility for seasonal TC prediction. Plain Language Summary El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a useful predictor for seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity in many basins. Here we found that the strength of the ENSO‐TC teleconnection, represented as the correlation between ENSO and the number of hurricanes and accumulated cyclone energy, has changed in the historical record. The ENSO‐TC teleconnection in the North Atlantic fluctuated over time, with a weak relationship during the 1960s and 1970s and a strong relationship during the 1980s to mid‐2000s. Meanwhile, the ENSO‐TC teleconnection strengthened in the North Pacific in recent decades, with strong teleconnections after the 1980s in the western North Pacific and after the 2000s in the eastern North Pacific. Periods of strong ENSO‐TC teleconnections are associated with more favorable environmental conditions for TCs, including higher values of genesis potential indices and higher mid‐tropospheric humidity, as well as positive phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Additionally, the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation leads to strong/weak ENSO‐TC teleconnections in the eastern North Pacific and North Atlantic, respectively. Furthermore, a negative North Atlantic Oscillation is associated with a weak ENSO‐North Atlantic TC teleconnection. This research highlights variations in ENSO's effectiveness for seasonal TC prediction. Key Points The observed impact of ENSO on tropical cyclone (TC) activity exhibits multidecadal fluctuations The ENSO‐TC teleconnection was strong in the Atlantic from the 1980s to mid‐2000s and strengthened over the North Pacific in recent decades The ENSO‐TC teleconnection is stronger in the Atlantic and North Pacific basins during a positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation

ENSO↗

NASA NTRS2013

Stationarity of the Tropical Pacific Teleconnection to North America in CMIP5 PMIP3 Model Simulations

The temporal stationarity of the teleconnection between the tropical Pacific Ocean and North America (NA) is analyzed in atmosphere-only, and coupled last-millennium, historical, and control runs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 data archive. The teleconnection, defined as the correlation between December-January-February (DJF) tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and DJF 200 mb geopotential height, is found to be nonstationary on multidecadal timescales. There are significant changes in the spatial features of the teleconnection over NA in continuous 56-year segments of the last millennium and control simulations. Analysis of atmosphere-only simulations forced with observed SSTs indicates that atmospheric noise cannot account for the temporal variability of the teleconnection, which instead is likely explained by the strength of, and multidecadal changes in, tropical Pacific Ocean variability. These results have implications for teleconnection-based analyses of model fidelity in simulating precipitation, as well as any reconstruction and forecasting efforts that assume stationarity of the observed teleconnection.

histories↗

NASA NTRS2013

Impact of the Dominant Large-scale Teleconnections on Winter Temperature Variability over East Asia

Monthly mean geopotential height for the past 33 DJF seasons archived in Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications reanalysis is decomposed into the large-scale teleconnection patterns to explain their impacts on winter temperature variability over East Asia. Following Arctic Oscillation (AO) that explains the largest variance, East Atlantic/West Russia (EA/WR), West Pacific (WP) and El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are identified as the first four leading modes that significantly explain East Asian winter temperature variation. While the northern part of East Asia north of 50N is prevailed by AO and EA/WR impacts, temperature in the midlatitudes (30N-50N), which include Mongolia, northeastern China, Shandong area, Korea, and Japan, is influenced by combined effect of the four leading teleconnections. ENSO impact on average over 33 winters is relatively weaker than the impact of the other three teleconnections. WP impact, which has received less attention than ENSO in earlier studies, characterizes winter temperatures over Korea, Japan, and central to southern China region south of 30N mainly by advective process from the Pacific. Upper level wave activity fluxes reveal that, for the AO case, the height and circulation anomalies affecting midlatitude East Asian winter temperature is mainly located at higher latitudes north of East Asia. Distribution of the fluxes also explains that the stationary wave train associated with EA/WR propagates southeastward from the western Russia, affecting the East Asian winter temperature. Investigation on the impact of each teleconnection for the selected years reveals that the most dominant teleconnection over East Asia is not the same at all years, indicating a great deal of interannual variability. Comparison in temperature anomaly distributions between observation and temperature anomaly constructed using the combined effect of four leading teleconnections clearly show a reasonable consistency between them, demonstrating that the seasonal winter temperature distributions over East Asia are substantially explained by these four large-scale circulation impacts.

El Nino-Southern Oscillation↗

NASA NTRS2018

Prediction Skill of the MJO Teleconnection Signals in the NASA GEOS Subseasonal Reforecasts

Tropical-extratropical teleconnections are considered key to advancing subseasonal prediction. The Madden Julian oscillation (MJO), characterized by large scale convective envelopes propagating along the tropical Indo-Pacific sector, is known to modulate midlatitude circulation and associated weather patterns. Although there is a general consensus on the MJO's influence on the midlatitude circulation, which is thought to be due to modulations of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Pacific North America (PNA) pattern, relatively less is known about the predictability of these teleconnection signals in dynamical forecast models. The composite evolution of the midlatitude circulation anomalies and associated wave train structure as the delayed response to tropical heating are reported in many studies that have examined reanalyses and long model simulations. However, it is yet to be determined whether they lend any beneficial subseasonal forecast skill, especially to weekly mean surface temperature and precipitation over North America. Investigating useful predictable signals from the MJO teleconnections is also complicated by the fact that the MJO is a moving heat source with an approximate periodicity of 30-60 days, and that the structure and amplitude of the midlatitude response can be sensitive to the longitudinal positioning of the heating anomaly as well as the propagation speed of the MJO. The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of MJO teleconnections on forecast accuracy at 2-3 week lead over North America, with an emphasis on the above-mentioned lesser known aspects of these teleconnections. To this end, we utilize a suite of subseasonal reforecasts performed with the latest NASA GEOS-5 seasonal-to-subseasonal (S2S) system. These reforecasts were performed as part of the NOAA SubX project, wherein the NASA GEOS-5 atmosphere-ocean coupled model was run at degree horizontal resolution, initialized every 5 days for the period 1999-2016. The GEOS-5 model shows skillful predictions of the MJO, with the correlation coefficient based on the real-time multivariate MJO (RMM) index staying at or above 0.5 up to forecast lead 26-36 days. The system is thus a useful tool for investigating MJO teleconnection processes.

Achuthavarier, Deepthi↗

NASA NTRS2017

An Evaluation of Teleconnections Over the United States in an Ensemble of AMIP Simulations with the MERRA-2 Configuration of the GEOS Atmospheric Model

The atmospheric general circulation model that is used in NASA's Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2) is evaluated with respect to the relationship between large-scale teleconnection patterns and daily temperature and precipitation over the United States (US) using a ten-member ensemble of simulations, referred to as M2AMIP. A focus is placed on four teleconnection patterns that are known to influence weather and climate in the US: El Nino Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the Pacific-North American Pattern. The monthly and seasonal indices associated with the patterns are correlated with daily temperature and precipitation statistics including: (i) monthly mean 2 m temperature and precipitation, (ii) the frequency of extreme temperature events at the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles, and (iii) the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events classified at the 90th, 95th, and 99th percentiles.Correlations obtained with M2AMIP data and thus the strength of teleconnections in the free-running model are evaluated through comparison against corresponding correlations computed from observations and from MERRA-2. Overall, the strongest teleconnections in all datasets occur during the winter and coincide with the largest agreement between the observations, MERRA-2, and M2AMIP. When M2AMIP does capture the correlation seen in observations, there is a tendency for the spatial extent to be exaggerated. The weakest agreement between the data sources, for all teleconnection patterns, is in the correlation with extreme precipitation; however there are discrepancies between the datasets in the number of days with at least 1 mm of precipitation: M2AMIP has too few days with precipitation in the Northwest and the Northern Great Plains and too many days in the Northeast. In JJA, M2AMIP has too few days with precipitation in the western two-thirds of the country and too many days with precipitation along the east coast.

JJA↗

NASA NTRS2015

Stability of ENSO and Its Tropical Pacific Teleconnections over the Last Millennium

Determining past changes in the amplitude, frequency and teleconnections of the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is important for understanding its potential sensitivity to future anthropogenic climate change. Palaeo-reconstructions from proxy records provide long-term information of ENSO interactions with the background climatic state through time. However, it remains unclear how ENSO characteristics have changed through time, and precisely which signals proxies record. Proxy interpretations are underpinned by the assumption of stationarity in relationships between local and remote climates, and often utilise archives from single locations located in the Pacific Ocean to reconstruct ENSO histories. Here, we investigate the stationarity of ENSO teleconnections using the Last Millennium experiment of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) (Taylor et al., 2012). We show that modelled ENSO characteristics vary on decadal- to centennial-scales, resulting from internal variability and external forcings, such as tropical volcanic eruptions. Furthermore, the relationship between ENSO conditions and local climates across the Pacific basin varies throughout the Last Millennium. Results show the stability of teleconnections is regionally dependent and proxies may reveal complex changes in teleconnected patterns, rather than large-scale changes in base ENSO characteristics. As such, proxy insights into ENSO likely require evidence to be synthesised over large spatial areas in order to deconvolve changes occurring in the NINO3.4 region from those pertaining to proxy-relevant local climatic variables. To obtain robust histories of the ENSO and its remote impacts, we recommend interpretations of proxy records should be considered in conjunction with palaeo-reconstructions from within the Central Pacific

teleconnections↗

NASA NTRS1984

On the dynamics of equatorial forcing of climate teleconnections

A number of observational, theoretical, and modeling studies have been conducted on the remote influence of the tropics on the midlatitudes. Teleconnection in the geopotential height field between the tropics and the extratropics associated with the Southern Oscillation in the so-called Pacific-North America (PNA) pattern, has often been cited as an example of such remote influence. Simmons et al. (1983) have shown that teleconnections such as PNA may arise both from barotropic instability of the extratropical zonal flow and from tropical forcing. The present investigation is only concerned with the dynamics of the part of the atmospheric teleconnection which arises from tropical forcing. Some fundamentals of Rossby wave theory in unsheared flow are discussed along with the linear response to equatorial forcing for horizontally, sheared zonal mean flow. A global shallow-water spectral model is employed in conjunction with a theoretical analysis to show the teleconnection patterns which develop under different large-scale mean circulation conditions.

Lau, K.-M.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Teleconnections in the Southern Hemisphere

Monthly anomalies from climatology of sea level pressure and 500 mb geopotential height are used to study teleconnection patterns in the Southern Hemisphere. The data and method used are described, and correlations between zonally averaged anomalies are given. The zonal wavenumber three patterns and teleconnection patterns are given, and the results of eigenvector analysis with teleconnection patterns at 500 mb are reported. The zonally averaged anomalies display two patterns of variability; an out-of-phase relation between high and low latitudes and a pattern in which anomalies in midlatitudes vary out of phase with anomalies in low and high latitudes. In winter, midlatitudes are dominated by three centers of positive correlations over the oceans while the negative correlations are found at high and low latitudes. The teleconnection pattern in summer at 500 mb shows an out-of-phase relation between heights over the subtropical continents and heights in the midlatitude oceans.

Mo, K. C.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The relationship of extratropical outgoing longwave radiation to monthly geopotential teleconnection patterns

The relationship between low frequency variations in extratropical fields of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and geopotential teleconnection patterns as determined by rotated principal components analysis of the NMC 500-mb heights is investigated in the Northern Hemisphere. The monthly broadband OLR is obtained from the Nimbus-6 and Nimbus-7 Wide-Field-Of-View radiometer record. Each of the main 500-mb teleconnection patterns has a characteristic signal in the OLR field for the month in which the 500-mb pattern occurs. The OLR signals mark cloud and diabatic heating events that are associated with the teleconnection patterns. A demonstration is given of correlation between extratropical monthly OLR and geopotential height. Coupled with the expected tropospheric response to radiation on monthly time scale. This demonstration stresses the importance of the radiation simulation in model studies of the low frequency variability of atmospheric circulation. The extratropical OLR does not appear to be a useful predictor for the 500-mb teleconnection patterns on a monthly time scale.

Charlock, Thomas P.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Atmospheric Teleconnection over Eurasia Induced by Aerosol Radiative Forcing during Boreal Spring

The direct effects of aerosols on global and regional climate during boreal spring are investigated based on numerical simulations with the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM) with Microphyics of Clouds with the Relaxed Arakawa Schubert Scheme (McRAS), using aerosol forcing functions derived from the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). The authors find that anomalous atmospheric heat sources induced by absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) excite a planetary-scale teleconnection pattern in sea level pressure, temperature, and geopotential height spanning North Africa through Eurasia to the North Pacific. Surface cooling due to direct effects of aerosols is found in the vicinity and downstream of the aerosol source regions, that is, South Asia, East Asia, and northern and western Africa. Significant atmospheric heating is found in regions with large loading of dust (over northern Africa and the Middle East) and black carbon (over Southeast Asia). Paradoxically, the most pronounced feature in aerosol-induced surface temperature is an east west dipole anomaly with strong cooling over the Caspian Sea and warming over central and northeastern Asia, where aerosol concentrations are low. Analyses of circulation anomalies show that the dipole anomaly is a part of an atmospheric teleconnection pattern driven by atmospheric heating anomalies induced by absorbing aerosols in the source regions, but the influence was conveyed globally through barotropic energy dispersion and sustained by feedback processes associated with the regional circulations. The surface temperature signature associated with the aerosol-induced teleconnection bears striking resemblance to the spatial pattern of observed long-term trend in surface temperature over Eurasia. Additionally, the boreal spring wave train pattern is similar to that reported by Fukutomi et al. associated with the boreal summer precipitation seesaw between eastern and western Siberia. The results of this study raise the possibility that global aerosol forcing during boreal spring may play an important role in spawning atmospheric teleconnections that affect regional and global climates.

Kim, Maeng-Ki↗

NASA NTRS2022

Advances in the prediction of MJO-Teleconnections in the S2S forecast systems

This study evaluates the ability of state-of-the-art subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasting systems to represent and predict the teleconnections of the Madden Julian Oscillations and their effects on weather in terms of midlatitude weather patterns and North Atlantic tropical cyclones. This evaluation of forecast systems applies novel diagnostics developed to track teleconnections along their preferred pathways in the troposphere and stratosphere, and to measure the global and regional responses induced by teleconnections across both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Results of this study will help the modeling community understand to what extent the potential to predict the weather on S2S time scales is achieved by the current generation of forecasting systems, while informing where to focus further development efforts. The findings of this study will also provide impact modelers and decision makers with a better understanding of the potential of S2S predictions related to MJO teleconnections.

Forecasting↗

DOE OSTI2025

Global teleconnections influencing large-scale drought in the United States using SVDI

Understanding recent large-scale drought patterns and the mechanisms producing extreme drought events is vital for future drought forecasts and understanding future drought risks. Increasingly, vapor pressure deficit (VPD) has been used as an important measure of evaporative demand and proxy for drought detection. In this study, VPD is used to calculate the new Standardized VPD Drought Index (SVDI) with NASA North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) data. Previous studies have shown that SVDI accurately identifies the timing and magnitude short-term droughts in the United States (U.S). In the present study, SVDI is now used to identify large-scale drought patterns between 1980 and 2021 and drought variability driven by selected global teleconnections originating in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. Spatial drought characteristics were extracted from SVDI using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. Then a k-means clustering algorithm was applied to both EOF principal components and primary teleconnections, including the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to identify drought events driven by the Pacific Ocean. Results show that the SVDI is useful in evaluating large-scale drought variability in the U.S. related to global teleconnections, and that mechanisms influencing summer drought patterns in the Western and Southwestern U.S. are driven by a tropical-extratropical interactions originating in the equatorial Pacific Ocean related to ENSO dynamics with interdecadal variability modulated by PDO. The large-scale droughts in the Central and Southern U.S., like those in 2011 and 2012, on the other hand, are driven by the North Pacific Ocean warm pool during a strong negative PDO, which subsequently influenced variability in the Bermuda-Azores High in the Atlantic Ocean. In summer 2011, the Bermuda-Azores High weakened, reducing the onshore winds and moisture transport along the eastern Gulf of Mexico and contributing to ongoing drought in the region. The Northern Pacific and Atlantic Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) have increased between 1980 and 2021. In conclusion, as SSTs continue to rise in the Northern Pacific Ocean, one consequence of the coupled North Pacific warm pool and atmospheric dynamics, is to increase summer drought variability over a large region in the southern and midwestern U.S. under global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

Role of Tropical Atlantic SST Variability as a Modulator of El Nino Teleconnections

The present study suggests that the off-equatorial North Atlantic (NATL) SST warming plays a significant role in modulating El Niño teleconnection and its impact on the North Atlantic and European regions. The El Niño events accompanied by NATL SST warming exhibit south-north dipole pattern over the Western Europe to Atlantic, while the ENSO teleconnection pattern without NATL warming exhibits a Rossby wave-like pattern confined over the North Pacific and western Atlantic. Especially, the El Niño events with NATL warming show positive (negative) geopotential-height anomalies over the North Atlantic (Western Europe) which resemble the negative phase of the NAO. Consistently, it is shown using a simple statistical model that NATL SSTA in addition to the tropical Pacific SSTA leads to better prediction on regional climate variation over the North Atlantic and European regions. This role of NATL SST on ENSO teleconnection is also validated and discussed in a long term simulation of coupled global circulation model (CGCM).

Teleconnection↗

NASA NTRS2024

Investigating the Strength and Variability of El Niño Southern Oscillation Teleconnections to Hydroclimate and Maize Yields in Southern and East Africa

The state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is critical for seasonal climate forecasts, but recent events diverged substantially from expectations in many regions, including Sub-Saharan Africa where seasonal forecasts are critical tools for addressing food security. Here, we evaluate 39 years (1982–2020) of data on hydroclimate, leaf area index, and maize yields to investigate the strength of ENSO teleconnections in southern and East Africa. Teleconnections to precipitation, soil moisture, and leaf area index are generally stronger during ENSO phases that cause drought conditions (El Niño in southern Africa and La Niña in East Africa), with seasonality that aligns well with the maize growing seasons. Within maize growing areas, however, ENSO teleconnections to hydroclimate and vegetation are generally weaker compared to the broader geographic regions, especially in East Africa. There is also little evidence that the magnitude of the ENSO event affects the hydroclimate or vegetation response in these maize regions. Maize yields in Kenya, Malawi, South Africa, and Zimbabwe all correlate significantly with hydroclimate and leaf area index, with South Africa and Zimbabwe showing the strongest and most consistent yield responses to ENSO events. Our results highlight the chain of causality from El Niño and La Niña forcing of regional anomalies in hydroclimate to vegetation health and maize yields in southern and East Africa. The large spread across individual ENSO events, however, underscores the limitations of this climate mode for seasonal climate prediction in the region, and the importance of finding additional sources of skill for improving climate and yield forecasts.

El Niño Southern Oscillation↗

DOE OSTI2026

Subseasonal Forecasting and MJO Teleconnections in Machine Learning Weather Prediction Models

Abstract In recent years, machine‐learning (ML) models trained on reanalysis data have rivaled physics‐based forecast models in terms of performance skill for global weather forecasting. With increased rollout stability, the question of how these models perform for subseasonal to seasonal (S2S, week 3–8) forecasting has emerged. In this study we run a large set of subseasonal hindcasts over 2004–2023 to evaluate two ML weather forecast models at the S2S time scale, SFNO‐HENS (Nvidia, fully ML) and NeuralGCM (Google Research, hybrid). Corresponding hindcasts from the European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as a baseline for comparison to a physics‐based model. Because our focus is on predicting moisture transport over the Western United States between October and March, we evaluate the models' prediction skill for the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and its associated teleconnections in the North Pacific. We find that both ML models are competitive with the ECWMF model, with comparable skill in predicting the North Pacific large‐scale circulation and the MJO at week 3 and beyond. Even though overall the mid‐latitude subseasonal prediction skill remains low, the ML models exhibit interesting behavior such as a realistic propagation of the MJO across the Maritime Continent and realistic teleconnections. A SFNO‐HENS sensitivity experiment with altered initial conditions in the tropics demonstrates the stability of the model, and it illustrates the capability of ML models to represent important physical processes of the atmosphere at the S2S time scale. Plain Language Summary Predicting weather patterns and precipitation a few weeks in advance (subseasonal time scale) is of great interest for stakeholders such as water managers in the Southwest United States (US), where arid conditions prevail. Subseasonal forecasts from traditional weather forecast models exhibit low skill in the region, limiting their applicability. Here we examine whether the recent breakthrough in weather forecasting made with machine learning/artificial intelligence models can translate to improved subseasonal forecasts. Recently‐developed machine learning models exhibit comparable skill to a state‐of‐the‐art physics‐based model for predicting weather patterns in the North Pacific/North America region, and associated moisture transport. The same applies to their skill in predicting the tropical pattern, the Madden‐Julian Oscillation, and its important remote perturbations over the midlatitude East Pacific and Southwest US. Additionally, a perturbation experiment carried out with one of the machine learning models illustrates their ability to not only predict the evolution of atmospheric fields, but also to learn and represent physical processes such as tropics‐extratropics Rossby wave propagation. Key Points Two machine learning weather forecast models exhibit state‐of‐the‐art prediction skill at the subseasonal time scale in the Pacific sector The models equal ECWMF in terms of Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) prediction skill, and they accurately predict the MJO propagation and associated teleconnections The two machine‐learning models represent key physical processes for subseasonal prediction, despite being trained for weather forecasting

Peings, Yannick↗

NASA NTRS2001

Decadal-Interdecadal SST Variability and Regional Climate Teleconnections

Dominant modes of decadal and interdecadal SST variability and their impacts on summertime rainfall variability over East Asia and the North America are studied. Two dominant modes of interdecadal SST variability, one associated with El Nino-like warming in the global oceans and one with an east-west seesaw variation in the equatorial Pacific have been identified. The first mode is associated in part with a long-term warming trend in the topical oceans and cooling over the northern Pacific. The second mode suggests an westward shift and strengthening of the Walker circulation from 1960s to the 1980s. Over East Asian, the first SST mode is correlated with reduced rainfall in northern China and excessive rainfall in central China. This SST mode is also associated with the tendency for increased rainfall over the midwest region, and reduced rainfall over the east Coast of the US. The results suggest a teleconnection pattern which links the occurrences of drought and floods over the Asian monsoon and the US summertime time climate. This teleconnection is likely to be associated with decadal variability of the East Asian jetstream, which are affected by strong land surface heating over the Siberian region, as well as El Nino-like SST forcings. The occurrences of major droughts and floods in the East Asian and US continent in recent decades are discussed in light of the above teleconnection patterns.

Lau, William K. M.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Interannual Variability, Global Teleconnection, and Potential Predictability Associated with the Asian Summer Monsoon

In this Chapter, aspects of global teleconnections associated with the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) are discussed. The basic differences in the basic dynamics of the South Asian Monsoon and the East Asian monsoon, and their implications on global linkages are discussed. Two teleconnection modes linking ASM variability to summertime precipitation over the continental North America were identified. These modes link regional circulation and precipitation anomalies over East Asia and continental North America, via coupled atmosphere-ocean variations over the North Pacific. The first mode has a large zonally symmetrical component and appears to be associated with subtropical jetstream variability and the second mode with Rossby wave dispersion. Both modes possess strong sea surface temperature (SST) expressions in the North Pacific. Results show that the two teleconnection modes may have its origin in intrinsic modes of sea surface temperature variability in the extratropical oceans, which are forced in part by atmospheric variability and in part by air-sea interaction. The potential predictability of the ASM associated with SST variability in different ocean basins is explored using a new canonical ensemble correlation prediction scheme. It is found that SST anomalies in tropical Pacific, i.e., El Nino, is the most dominant forcing for the ASM, especially over the maritime continent and eastern Australia. SST anomalies in the India Ocean may trump the influence from El Nino in western Australia and western maritime continent. Both El Nino, and North Pacific SSTs contribute to monsoon precipitation anomalies over Japan, southern Korea, northern and central China. By optimizing SST variability signals from the world ocean basins using CEC, the overall predictability of ASM can be substantially improved.

Lau, K. M.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Quantitative Estimation of the Impact of European Teleconnections on Interannual Variation of East Asian Winter Temperature and Monsoon

The impact of European teleconnections including the East AtlanticWest Russia (EA-WR), the Scandinavia (SCA), and the East Atlantic (EA) on East Asian winter temperature variability was quantified and compared with the combined effect of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Western Pacific (WP), and the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are originated in the Northern Hemispheric high-latitudes or the Pacific. Three European teleconnections explained 22-25 percent of the total monthly upper-tropospheric height variance over Eurasia. Regression analysis revealed warming by EA-WR and EA and cooling by SCA over mid-latitude East Asia during their positive phase and vice versa. Temperature anomalies were largely explained by the advective temperature change process at the lower troposphere. The average spatial correlation over East Asia (90-180E, 10-80N) for the last 34 winters between observed and reconstructed temperature comprised of AO, WP and ENSO effect (AWE) was approximately 0.55, and adding the European teleconnection components (ESE) to the reconstructed temperature improved the correlation up to approximately 0.64. Lower level atmospheric structure demonstrated that approximately five of the last 34 winters were significantly better explained by ESE than AWE to determine East Asian seasonal winter temperatures. We also compared the impact between EA-WR and AO on the 1) East Asian winter monsoon, 2) cold surge, and 3) the Siberian high. These three were strongly coupled, and their spatial features and interannual variation were somewhat better explained by EA-WR than AO. Results suggest that the EA-WR impact must be treated more importantly than previously thought for a better understanding of East Asian winter temperature and monsoon variability.

East Asian Winter Monsoon↗