Reliability Achievement Through the Technical Risk Assessment
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Reliability Achievement Through the Technical Risk Assessment
In today's business and economic environment, the primary goal of a manufacturer is to produce a.
Reliability Achievement↗
Evaluation of nonmetallic thermal protection materials for the manned space shuttle. Volume 1, task 1: Assessment of technical risks associated with utilization of nonmetallic thermal protection system
Technical problems of design and flight qualification of the proposed classes of surface insulation materials and leading edge materials were reviewed. A screening test plan, a preliminary design data test plan and a design data test plan were outlined. This program defined the apparent critical differences between the surface insulators and the leading edge materials, structuring specialized screening test plans for each of these two classes of materials. Unique testing techniques were shown to be important in evaluating the structural interaction aspects of the surface insulators and a separate task was defined to validate the test plan. In addition, a compilation was made of available information on proposed material (including metallic TPS), previous shuttle programs, pertinent test procedures, and other national programs of merit. This material was collected and summarized in an informally structured workbook.
Wilkinson, W. H.↗
An Assessment of Technical and Production Risks of Candidate Low-Cost Attitude/Heading Reference Systems(AHRS)
This report provides an assessment of technical and production risks of candidate low-cost attitude/heading reference systems (AHRS) for use in the Advanced General Aviation Transport Experiments (AGATE) airplanes. A low-cost AHRS is a key component of modem "glass cockpit" flight displays for General Aviation (GA) aircraft. The technical capabilities of several candidate low-cost AHRS were examined and described along with the technical issues involved with using all solid-state components for attitude measurement. An economic model was developed which describes the expected profit, rate of return, and volume requirements for the manufacture of low-cost AHRS for GA aircraft in the 2000 to 2020 time frame. The model is the result of interviews with GA airframe manufacturers, avionics manufacturers and historical analysis of avionics of similar complexity. The model shows that a manufacturer will break even after three years of AHRS production, realizing an 18 percent rate of return (23 percent profit) on an investment of $3.5M over the 20 year period. A start-up production estimate showed costs of $6-12M for a new company to build and certify an AHRS from scratch, considered to be a high-risk proposition, versus $0.25-0.75M for an experienced avionics manufacturer to manufacture a design under license, a low-risk proposition.
Yuchnovicz, Daniel↗
Assessment of Alternative Europa Mission Architectures
The purpose of this study was to assess the science merit, technical risk and qualitative assessment of relative cost of alternative architectural implementations as applied to a first dedicated mission to Europa. The objective was accomplished through an examination of mission concepts resulting from previous and ongoing studies. Key architectural elements that were considered include moon orbiters, flybys (single flybys like New Horizons and multiple flybys similar to the ongoing Jupiter System Observer study), sample return and in situ landers and penetrators.
Juptier Icy Moon Orbiter (JIMO)↗
Application of Risk Informed Decision Making to Highly Reliable Three Dimensionally Woven Thermal Protection System for Mars Sample Return
The NASA Risk Informed Decision Making process is used to assess a trade space of three dimensionally woven thermal protection systems for application to the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry Vehicle. Candidate architectures are assessed based on mission assurance, technical development, cost, and schedule risk. Assessment methodology differed between the architectures, utilizing a four-point quantitative scale for mission assurance and technical development and highly tailored PERT techniques for cost and schedule. Risk results are presented, in addition to a review of RIDM effectiveness for this application.
Needels, J.↗
Application of Risk Informed Decision Making to a Highly Reliable Three-Dimensionally Woven Thermal Protection System for Mars Sample Return
The NASA Risk Informed Decision Making process is used to assess a trade space of three dimensionally woven thermal protection systems for application to the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry Vehicle. Candidate architectures are assessed based on mission assurance, technical development, cost, and schedule risk. Assessment methodology differed between the architectures, utilizing a four-point quantitative scale for mission assurance and technical development and highly tailored PERT techniques for cost and schedule. Risk results are presented, in addition to a review of RIDM effectiveness for this application.
Needels, J.↗
NASA Langley Systems Analysis & Concepts Directorate Technology Assessment/Portfolio Analysis
Systems analysis develops and documents candidate mission and architectures, associated system concepts, enabling capabilities and investment strategies to achieve NASA s strategic objectives. The technology assessment process connects the mission and architectures to the investment strategies. In order to successfully implement a technology assessment, there is a need to collect, manipulate, analyze, document, and disseminate technology-related information. Information must be collected and organized on the wide variety of potentially applicable technologies, including: previous research results, key technical parameters and characteristics, technology readiness levels, relationships to other technologies, costs, and potential barriers and risks. This information must be manipulated to facilitate planning and documentation. An assessment is included of the programmatic and technical risks associated with each technology task as well as potential risk mitigation plans. Risks are assessed and tracked in terms of likelihood of the risk occurring and consequences of the risk if it does occur. The risk assessments take into account cost, schedule, and technical risk dimensions. Assessment data must be simplified for presentation to decision makers. The Systems Analysis and Concepts Directorate (SACD) at NASA Langley Research Center has a wealth of experience in performing Technology Assessment and Portfolio Analysis as this has been a business line since 1978.
Cavanaugh, Stephen↗
Energy Storage Project
NASA's Exploration Technology Development Program funded the Energy Storage Project to develop battery and fuel cell technology to meet the expected energy storage needs of the Constellation Program for human exploration. Technology needs were determined by architecture studies and risk assessments conducted by the Constellation Program, focused on a mission for a long-duration lunar outpost. Critical energy storage needs were identified as batteries for EVA suits, surface mobility systems, and a lander ascent stage; fuel cells for the lander and mobility systems; and a regenerative fuel cell for surface power. To address these needs, the Energy Storage Project developed advanced lithium-ion battery technology, targeting cell-level safety and very high specific energy and energy density. Key accomplishments include the development of silicon composite anodes, lithiated-mixed-metal-oxide cathodes, low-flammability electrolytes, and cell-incorporated safety devices that promise to substantially improve battery performance while providing a high level of safety. The project also developed "non-flow-through" proton-exchange-membrane fuel cell stacks. The primary advantage of this technology set is the reduction of ancillary parts in the balance-of-plant--fewer pumps, separators and related components should result in fewer failure modes and hence a higher probability of achieving very reliable operation, and reduced parasitic power losses enable smaller reactant tanks and therefore systems with lower mass and volume. Key accomplishments include the fabrication and testing of several robust, small-scale nonflow-through fuel cell stacks that have demonstrated proof-of-concept. This report summarizes the project s goals, objectives, technical accomplishments, and risk assessments. A bibliography spanning the life of the project is also included.
Mercer, Carolyn R.↗
Report to the administrator by the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel on the Skylab program. Volume 2: Program implementation and maturity
Results of the design and manufacturing reviews on the maturity of the Skylab modules are presented along with results of investigations on the scope of the cluster risk assessment efforts. The technical management system and its capability to assess and resolve problems are studied.
Source record↗
Advanced Risk Reduction Tool (ARRT) Special Case Study Report: Science and Engineering Technical Assessments (SETA) Program
This special case study report presents the Science and Engineering Technical Assessments (SETA) team's findings for exploring the correlation between the underlying models of Advanced Risk Reduction Tool (ARRT) relative to how it identifies, estimates, and integrates Independent Verification & Validation (IV&V) activities. The special case study was conducted under the provisions of SETA Contract Task Order (CTO) 15 and the approved technical approach documented in the CTO-15 Modification #1 Task Project Plan.
Kirsch, Paul J.↗
Panel to review EOSDIS plans
Formed in Jan. 1992, the Panel to Review EOSDIS Plans was charged with advising NASA on its plans for developing the Earth Observing System (EOS) Data and Information System (EOSDIS). Specifically, the panel was asked to do the following: assess the validity of the engineering and technical underpinnings of the EOSDIS; assess its potential value to scientific users; suggest how technical risk can be minimized; and assess whether current plans are sufficiently resilient to be adaptable to changing technology and requirements such as budget environments, data volumes, new users, and new databases. The panel completed an interim report (Addendum A) and transmitted it to NASA and other interested parties in the government on 9 Apr. 1992. Because of a delay in NASA's plans to select the contractor for EOSDIS, the panel was not able to complete its review of the program according to the original government request. With the issuance of a letter report (Addendum B) on 28 Sep. 1992, the panel became inactive until such time as NASA could release the details of the contractor's proposed architecture, schedule, and costs for developing EOSDIS. In early 1993, NASA awarded the contract for the EOSDIS Core System (ECS). On 20 Apr. 1993, NASA asked the panel to reconvene to do the following: ( 1) complete its review of NASA's approach to the EOSDIS architecture and implementation; (2) appraise NASA's responses to the panel's previous recommendations; and (3) review the planning for EOSDIS in the context of NASA's role in the Global Change Data and Information System (GCDIS) implementation plan. To respond to the NASA charge, the panel met three times in 1993 including sessions with NASA officials and the EOSDIS contractor. In addition, several of the panel members visited individual Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAAC's) to obtain additional views of EOSDIS. The panel has now obtained substantial information on the EOSDIS budget, contractor work program, and current baseline architecture that was not previously available, due to procurement restrictions. This report presents the panel's findings and recommendations based on this additional information.
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How Can You Support RIDM/CRM/RM Through the Use of PRA
Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is one of key Risk Informed Decision Making (RIDM) tools. It is a scenario-based methodology aimed at identifying and assessing Safety and Technical Performance risks in complex technological systems.
DoVemto. Tpmu↗
Probabilistic risk assessment of the Space Shuttle. Phase 3: A study of the potential of losing the vehicle during nominal operation, volume 1
This document is the Executive Summary of a technical report on a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of the Space Shuttle vehicle performed under the sponsorship of the Office of Space Flight of the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration. It briefly summarizes the methodology and results of the Shuttle PRA. The primary objective of this project was to support management and engineering decision-making with respect to the Shuttle program by producing (1) a quantitative probabilistic risk model of the Space Shuttle during flight, (2) a quantitative assessment of in-flight safety risk, (3) an identification and prioritization of the design and operations that principally contribute to in-flight safety risk, and (4) a mechanism for risk-based evaluation proposed modifications to the Shuttle System. Secondary objectives were to provide a vehicle for introducing and transferring PRA technology to the NASA community, and to demonstrate the value of PRA by applying it beneficially to a real program of great international importance.
Fragola, Joseph R.↗
PRA in Design: Increasing Confidence in Pre-Operational Assessments of Risks (Results of a Joint NASA/NRC Workshop)
In late 2009, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) jointly organized a workshop to discuss technical issues associated with application of risk assessments to early phases of system design. The workshop, which was coordinated by the Idaho National Laboratory, involved invited presentations from a number of PRA experts in the aerospace and nuclear fields and subsequent discussion to address the following questions: (a) What technical issues limit decision-makers' confidence in PRA results, especially at a pre-operational phase of the system life cycle? (b) What is being done to address these issues'? (c) What more can be done ? The workshop resulted in participant observations and suggestions on several technical issues, including the pursuit of non-traditional approaches to risk assessment and the verification and validation of risk models. The workshop participants also identified several important non-technical issues, including risk communication with decision makers, and the integration of PRA into the overall design process.
Youngblood, Robert↗
NASA'S Use of Ground-Based Multi-Layered Pressure Vessels (MLPV)
NASA has taken the US technical lead in assessing and reducing risks associated with operations of non-code MLPVs, with the goal of developing technical standards and processes for continued use, maintenance, inspection, and repair of MLPVs
Clifton T Arnold, Jr.↗
Prospects for Interstellar Propulsion
In recognition of the increasing prospects for Earth-like exoplanet discoveries and its significance for spurring future interstellar voyages of discovery, the United States Congress recently directed NASA to undertake an interstellar mission technology assessment report. In response to this legislative charge to action, NASA has undertaken a series of extramural interstellar workshops aimed at identifying and evaluating technology concepts for enabling an interstellar scientific probe mission, associated technical challenges, technology readiness level assessments, risks, potential near-term milestones, and funding requirements. This paper summarizes these activities and discusses the scientific and technical rationale for a long-term program consisting of incremental, staged technical developments that are extensible for interstellar travel to a nearby star system over many decades.
Litchford, Ronald J.↗
Towards a Methodology and Tooling for Model-Based Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)
A Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) aims to identify and assess potential risks to system technical performance requirements for the purpose of furnishing risk insights into project decisions. PRAs have traditionally been conducted manually using software with an isolated data model. As system complexity rises it becomes difficult to ensure consistency between a PRA, the evolving system design, and other engineering analyses; the techniques for conducting PRAs must evolve to meet this challenge. This work presents progress towards a methodology and tooling for conducting a PRA by leveraging data in the system model, embedded for other purposes and analyses, to conduct a PRA. An approach for identifying the appropriate probabilistic equation for each risk scenario from a standard library is presented, which is a significant step towards the quantification of the likelihood of a risk scenario occurrence. The final calculation of the likelihood of occurrence is left as an item of future work. We also present the development of preliminary tooling to carry out the methodology on a well-formed system model. The information needed to conduct the PRA is embedded in a consistent manner in a system model, so the model-based PRA can be regularly executed as the system model changes. The ability to modify the PRA in concert with lifecycle evolution affords a project the opportunity to track the extent to which system modification impacts compliance with requirements. These aspects of this model-based PRA methodology make it capable of managing risk in increasingly complex technical systems.
Schreiner, Samuel S.↗